Baltimore Orioles Acquire Kevin Millwood, Send Chris Ray to Texas

It looks like all the smoke around a Kevin Millwood deal were indeed signs of fire as the Orioles will reportedly send RP Chris Ray to the Rangers for Millwood and cash considerations.

I am not a fan of Millwood the Baltimore Oriole...but considering who the Orioles are giving up and that cash is coming back to offset the $12 million that Millwood is due in 2010.

Now, the stark realities of Kevin Millwood. Only a 5.6 K/9 rate versus a 3.3 BB/9 in 2009 for a measly 1.73 K/BB ratio. He's a flyball pitcher coming to Camden Yards. His BABIP was .279 last season, by far his lowest rate since 1999. He appears to have been extremely lucky to post a 3.67 ERA last season. He could be an absolute disaster for Baltimore.

There is hope here however. Over the last three seasons, Millwood has an average ERA+ of 99, pitched an average of 180 innings and is good for two complete games a season. I know this is what Andy MacPhail thinks; Millwood is a league average pitcher who has pitched in a hitter's park and can eat innings and provide stability in the rotation...and hey, maybe we get lucky and he's even better than that. Bill James does project him to post a 4.37 ERA (slightly better than league average) over 175 innings.

The Rangers will reportedly pick up a quarter of Millwood's $12 million salary. For $9 million over one season, he is a calculated risk but not a crazy one.

The Orioles send former closer Chris Ray to Texas. As much as I hate to say it, this is no great loss. Ray is damaged goods at this point and showed absolutely nothing to lead one to believe that he will ever be an effective major league pitcher again. The Oriole bullpen needs an overhaul and it's probably time for someone else to deal with Ray.

In general, when you can trade a reliever for a starter I am all for it. I am tepid about Millwood as a good fit for the Orioles though. But for one year, even a colossal disaster will be over with quickly. All things considered, it's a good move and a good idea.

Base Hits: 8/6/2009

Jeremy Guthrie pitched well in Detroit last night but gave up his 27th homer of the season last night. It's the first week of August but Guthrie is only 8 homers short of the club record. Once he reached the top ten, I guess we'll have to put up a Guthrie Homer-meter on the site.

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Quick thought on Brian Matusz: Gnarly.

Matusz looked as polished as Brad Bergesen with better stuff. He had control of all four of his pitches and looks to be here to stay. Yeah, yeah, it's only one start and I'm the king of warning of "small sample sizes" but I'm calling it now. He's here to stay.

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Speaking of Matusz and Oriole rookie starters, FanGraphs has two articles on new Oriole hurlers. Dave Cameron looks at Chris Tillman's fastball location and his propensity for giving up fly balls and Erik Manning uses PitchFx to analyze Matusz's major league debut.

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Melvin Mora's line since his meltdown: .111/.111/.222.

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Almost as encouraging as Brian Matusz's performance on Tuesday night was the performance of Chris Ray in relief. 2.2 IP, 2 Ks, 1 BB, 1 hit, 0 runs.

Ray could be an enormous part of the bullpen in 2010 if he is actually able to come back...

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Some of Matusz's former Keys teammates will be in Baltimore next Monday to heckle the rookie pitcher.

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Erik Bedard is going for an MRI on his shoulder and the fans of Seattle are not too thrilled about it.

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The Bowling Green View interviews one of their alumni, Oriole outfielder Nolan Reimold.

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Former big league outfielder Doug Glanville is a smart guy and make some good observations on some recent steroid revelations in The New York Times.

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Shysterball offers up some good guidelines for ethical blogging.

Base Hits: 5/20/2009

Chris Ray is sporting an ERA north of 8.00...and that's a problem. Has he lost his fastball? Not really. His average fastball speed is 94 mph which is a couple mph off his 2007 levels but it's still not bad. But he doesn't trust his fastball anymore.




He used to work off his fastball, now not so much. He went from throwing it 72% of the time to throwing it less than half of the time. The slider and, to a greater extent, his change up are far more prominent and the results have not been good.

Why doesn't he believe in his fastball? It seems like he's still getting good horizontal movement but not quite as much movement vertically. Maybe that's the issue? Regardless, it's time for Ray to go to Norfolk to work it out. Matt Albers was better than this.

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As a fan of baseball and Jack Kerouac, I knew that he had concocted his own imaginary league of baseball teams that he played for much of his life. But I had never seen the evidence of those leagues until this week. Great stuff.

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Pie in May - .286/.355/.536
Montanez in May - .226/.294/.387

Which one needs to go to Norfolk when Scott comes back?

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Another great installment of the Eutaw Street Chronicles over at Roar From 34.

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Jay Trucker of the Examiner is not thrilled about new Baltimore Sun sports columnist Kevin Cowherd and pulls no punches...

In your "introduction," you noted that you covered sports for The Evening Sun from 1981 to 1987. I’m sure that if you want to, you will once again be an excellent addition to the Baltimore sports writing dialogue. But be forewarned. This isn’t 1987. Slip up, and you will have to deal with more than a letter to the editor or two. If you take a nap at your typewriter, awaken 20 minutes before a deadline, and rattle off 300 words explaining that Jeremy Guthrie’s “lack of fire” and “mental weakness” are to blame for his recent pitching woes, I will retaliate -- with facts and empiricism.

I don't disagree with many of Trucker's assertions in genereal. But shouldn't we wait until Cowherd writes his first baseball column, Jay?

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The Loss Column is concerned about Dave Trembley's habit of pulling starters after six innings or after 100 pitches.

I think the issue is that we don't have any pitchers capable of going more than 6 innings. Only Jeremy Guthrie would qualify and he has not performed up to expectations. More a function of personnel than managing.

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This is pretty cool. The Norfolk Tides are now putting game highlights up on YouTube. Here's the highlights from yesterday's game:

Five Things to Watch: Spring Training Update

Before Spring Training, I listed five things to watch while the O's were in Fort Lauderdale. Let's see what's happening...

1. Koji Uehara...What's Up With That?

Before he pulled a hammy, Uehara didn't look half bad. However, we haven't seen him in two weeks so the jury is out. He's supposed to pitch Tuesday...it'll be interesting to see how he fares against lineups with more major league regulars in them.

2. The Rotation...who will emerge?

We know much more now than we did in February but there is so much more unanswered. Radhames Liz, John Parrish, Brad Hennesey, Troy Patton and Brad Bergensen are all out of the running, either injured, sent to the pen or the minors. Rich Hill will start the season on the DL. That leaves Mark Hendrickson, Hayden Penn, Danys Baez, David Pauley, Alfredo Simon, Adam Eaton and Chris Waters to duke it out for the final three spots in the Opening Day rotation.

Unfortunately, nobody has stepped up yet to grab a spot. Dave Trembley keeps putting off the decision but he really has no choice at this point.

3. Luke Scott...Where's He Playing?

This has been a non-story. For all the talk of Scott being willing to try his hand at first base and Trembley wanting him to try out first, Scott has played mostly in left field and not manned first base once. He'll DH and play some left evidently.

4. The Catcher Situation

Andy MacPhail has stated that Matt Wieters would have to hit .800 to make the club out of Spring Training. Wieters is still in big league camp but I don't believe The Warehouse will let him come north to Baltimore. Look for Wieters in Norfolk until at least May.

Gregg Zaun has looked good in camp. Trembley likes how he blocks the plate as opposed to Ramon Hernadez and he seems to be handling the pitching staff well. As far as backups, it's between Chad Moeller and Robby Hammock. Hammock has hit well and shown the versatility to play the outfield but the smart money has to be on Moeller, the better glove, at this point.

5. Who's The Closer?

George Sherrill has been named the closer by Trembley but Chris Ray has looked spectacular. Look for Ray to get some chances this season too.

In other bullpen news, Jamie Walker looks healthy and, when healthy, Jim Johnson looks pretty good too. The pen could once again be a strength but it's hard to tell until we see who makes the rotation.

Can The Bullpen Be Fixed?

O's fans, there's no sense in getting upset when the Baltimore bullpen coughs up a lead this season. The season is lost and it's now open auditions for the bullpen spots. It's time to find out if anybody on this team can stabilize the 'pen in preparation for next year.

Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are exempt from this conversation. They signed for big money in the offseason and have pitched well. Look for them to share the seventh and eighth innings, trading off as the setup man for the rest of the year. Who else?

Chris Ray

Some rate stats for Ray comparing last year to this year

       FIP    K/9   BB/9   HR/9

2006  4.87    7.4    3.9   1.44

2007  4.14    9.0    3.6   1.19

Ray has blown 4 saves this year this year compared to 5 all of last year but in
most important categories he is actually pitching better than last year. The
problem? A lot of balls are finding holes this year where last year the defense
bailed him out a bit more. I think Ray will have things go more his way in the
second half and he should remain the closer next year.

Danys Baez

He reluctantly signed with the O's to setup for Ray but failed to do so effectively and now the O's may be reluctant to bring him back next year. Most peripheral stats (WHIP, K/9) are consistent with his career numbers but he just gave up way too many homeruns to remain effective. It's hard to say what his role may be until he comes off the DL. He certainly needs to put together a strong second half to have a good shot to make the club next year.

Paul Shuey

Shuey's been a nice story but the results haven't been good in the majors do far. He hasn't struck out that many but he's walked just as many as he's punched out which is not a good combination for a reliever. He's also got a WHIP close to 2.00. He'll get a chance to pitch until Baez gets healthy but I don't think he's much more than a mopup guy anymore.

John Parrish

Parrish was a nice story early in the season and it would probably be a bit unfair to judge him on this season's performance given the workload Sam Perlozzo laid on him. Except for one thing. It's a dirty little secret that Parrish walks batters at vintage Daniel Cabrera type rates. You can get away with that if you go 7 innings on a regular basis, not as a reliever. He has to go.

Kurt Birkins

I really want to like Birkins. His K rates and walk rates in the minors are impressive but he has yet to translate that into major league success. He gives up a lot of hits, even in AAA. He has the talent to pitch around those hits in Norfolk but he sure doesn't have the talent to pitch around them in Baltimore. Maybe he will be useful one day but I don't see it anytime soon.

Rob Bell

The journeyman, mostly in the minors, has been a strikeout ace in the minors but, like Birkins, hasn't translated it into big league success...until now. The O's are the first team to give Bell a significant look out of the bullpen and the 2.89 ERA is misleading (he has only 6 K's and 7 BB in his six games this season) and he may not get a chance to sort himself out in Baltimore but he's an intriguing possibility for long relief.

Cory Doyne

I like relievers who were closers in the minors, even if they never end up closing for the big club and Doyne has already saved 26 at midseason (setting a new record for the Tides franchise) and is posting a K/BB ratio of over 3 to 1. I like his chances to break with the club out of Spring Training next year and maybe even begin playing a pivotal role in the bullpen starting in August.

Jim Hoey

Hoey dominated the Eastern League, saving 14 games, appearing in 20 and posting a 0.00 ERA! His ERA in Norfolk has been 1.65 up to this point but he is striking out batters at an even higher rate and the International League is only batting .151 against him. It's just a matter of time before his talent begins to translate against big league hitters. The 24 year old is dominant and should be in the O's pen next year.

Brian Burres

I like Burres but I think his future is in the pen, not in the rotation. Assuming he's not forced into the rotation again, he'll be the primary long man next year.

Predicted O's bullpen for 2008:

Chris Ray - Closer

Chad Bradford - Setup

Jamie Walker - Setup

Brian Burres - Long Relief

Jim Hoey - Relief

Cory Doyne - Relief

That could be a dominant 'pen.

Happy Easter Victory

It's really time to start pitching around A-Rod. When he's hot, he's in Pujols/Bonds category. Just walk him.

Good to see the much maligned Jay Gibbons setting the table for the even more maligned Kevin Millar today. Millar jacked one out to leftfield to get Baltimore back into the game after A-Rod's two run shot in the 1st inning.

Do O's fans think the team is snakebitten? Here's the surest sign our luck is changing. Paul Bako hit a three run shot in the Bronx today. That matches his total for the last four years! You know what the odds were against that homer? Incredible.

It's a good thing Johnny Damon didn't start the game. He was on fire from the moment he got into the game.

Kevin Millar looked rejuvenated today. His bat looked so old and slow in Spring Training but I guess Yankee Stadium got the juices flowing again.

And how about Nick Markakis. He does it with the bat, the leather and the legs today. Outstanding.

Outside of the first inning, Erik Bedard pitched like an ace today. He only gave up two hits, struck out four and walked none.

Chris Ray recovered nicely to save the game in the 9th, 6-4.

But the real hero was Paul Bako with a three run shot off of Darrell Rasner. I have beaten up on Bako quite a bit but today, he's aces in my book. That doesn't change my overall opinion of him as a ballplayer though...yet.

Nothin' wrong with taking a series in the Bronx.