...And He's Gone!!! Trembley Put Out of His Misery

Dave Trembley has been fired as the Orioles manager. Juan Samuel has been named interim manager.

The only surprise here is that it took this long. After a horrible 2-14 start, the Orioles embarked on a brutal 12-game stretch against the Yankees and Red Sox and managed to go 5-7. They then split a 4-game set with the Twins and won a series against the Mariners and looked like they may have turned the corner. However, they are just 3-15 since the Seattle series and now own, by far, the worst record in baseball.

Trembley finishes his Oriole career with a 187-283 record and his record got worse with each successive year.

Is this mess completely his fault? No. Injuries to Brian Roberts, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold (I still contend that Reimold is not healthy yet...) did the offense no favors. Neither did the offseason signing of Garrett Atkins. He doesn't have a ton to work with this season.

But his bullpen management has been terrible in 2010 and he seems to be pressing and flailing for a way to stop the losing. He's made it worse at this point and it's time for a new voice.

Trembley was not a bad manager. He managed the bullpen well (at least pre-2010), finding contributors in unusual places and spreading the work around quite well. He was, at least, no detriment to the young players who came up from the minors the last couple years. You certainly would rather have a guy like Trembley than, say, Lou Pinella when you have young, impressionable rookies in droves.

Trembley loved being the manager and loved the fans. At Spring Training, he was the last to leave the field after games or workouts, taking all kinds of time to chat and take pictures with fans or sign autographs. He wasn't faking it; he loved every aspect of his job.

But you don't keep that job if the team doesn't win. This is baseball and it just doesn't work that way. Removing Trembley probably won't do much for the Orioles in the standings but giving Juan Samuel the interim job gives Andy MacPhail the freedom to begin his search for a new skipper.

Samuel won't get the job. MacPhail is not going to give another "interim" guy the job. The search will be wide and the next guy will surely come from outside the organization.

So don't expect the Orioles to start winning just because Trembley is gone. He was in a bad situation and the situation hasn't changed.


From the Oriole press release:

The Orioles today announced that third base coach JUAN SAMUEL has been named as the club’s interim manager, replacing DAVE TREMBLEY. Samuel will be introduced as interim manager in a press conference today at 2:30 p.m. in the Auxiliary Clubhouse at Camden Yards....

From Dave Trembley's Statement:

“I would like to express my gratitude and appreciation to Peter Angelos and Andy MacPhail for the opportunity to serve as manager for the Baltimore Orioles for the past three years. The results on the field were not what any of us would have hoped for, and I understand that the organization felt the time was right to move in a different direction. While I am disappointed at the outcome, I feel it was a privilege to wear the Orioles uniform each day and I thank all the fans for their tremendous support. I hope the team will soon return to the winning tradition they enjoyed for so many years.”

Rick Dempsey talks with Brian Matusz

via MASN.

I really enjoyed this. Matusz talks breaking pitches, pickoff moves and his relationship with Matt Wieters. Hopefully, we'll look back on this video fondly in about 10 years...





BTW Camden Depot tweeted that Mark Viviano is reporting that Dave Trembley will be fired after today's game in New York and Juan Samuel will take over. We shall see..

Bullpen Management in Microcosm

Last night, Dave Trembley let Brad Bergesen work into the 8th. After two straight singles, he lifted Brad Bergesen for Jason Berken. Here's what happened next:

"I don't think the pitch count enters into it," Trembley said of removing Bergesen. "He had retired that many, he had a long inning to sit after the seventh. You certainly don't want to put him in a situation where he's going to lose the game. He's pitched so well."

Right-hander Jason Berken entered and immediately picked up a flyout. Trembley then replaced Berken with left-hander Hendrickson to face consecutive left-handed hitters, Daric Barton and Ryan Sweeney...

"I think you're going to go left vs. left there. I think that's really what you're going to do," Trembley said. "Berken hasn't faced these guys a lot. Their two best hitters are their two lefties right there. … Berken's a fly-ball pitcher. You don't want Berken to give up a home run there. He's never been in that situation before. Hendrickson has. He did a nice job the other night in the same role. That's the decision that was made."

What followed was a debacle as Hendrickson and Cla Meredith combined to blow a 5-2 lead and the Orioles lost the game.

Lifting Bergesen after the two singles? OK. You can second guess that but if Bergey gives up a three-run homer to the next batter, Trembley's getting crucified. And to some extent, I understand that Trembley is trying to limit the psychic damage to a young pitcher. That decision is fine.

But lifting Berken after one batter faced? Berken is your "long man" and, outside of Will Ohman, your most consistent performer out of the pen in 2010. He can certainly give you an inning. He's been sitting on the bench for 7 days...he's well rested. You could also make the argument that you put Berken out there for the two inning save and rest everybody else. And everybody else needs it.

But this would only be a blip if it was one game. Unfortunately, Trembley has been managing this way all season.

Will Ohman is on pace for 84 appearances, Matt Albers, 74 and Cla Meredith, 73. These are not Perlozzian levels of bullpen mismanagement but they are getting close. Meanwhile, Berken has just 12 appearances and we're closing in on Memorial Day. Why not let Berken pitch a little?

This is not how Trembley has managed his bullpens in the past. The work was a bit more evenly spread. I think the losing is messing with his head.

So it's probably time for him to go.

(As an aside, Brad Bergesen has been much improved since his return from Norfolk. 3-1, 4.26 ERA, averaging more than 6 innings a start. OK, 10 walks vs. 8 strikeouts is not good but when you are getting grounders on 67% of your balls put in play, you're certainly going to be in decent shape. This style isn't going to win you any Cy Young awards but Bergesen still looks like a fine back of the rotation starter to me.)

Trembley Explodes! Too Little, Too Late?

Orioles manager Dave Trembley reportedly gave the team a piece of his mind yesterday. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun:

If you had April 21 in the "When will Dave Trembley blow his stack" pool, collect your prize. The Orioles manager had a brief, but apparently noisy, team meeting tonight to get after his players for both their effort and execution in recent days. Trembley said it wasn't one play or sequence that set him off, but rather a collection of them. I'd say Julio Lugo's hustle down the first base line and the Orioles' getting leadoff doubles in two innings last night and not budging the runners were at the top of the list.

Does this seem a bit disingenuous and forced to anyone else? I mean, if you were the manager and you were really bothered by the team not hitting the runners over or, especially, by Lugo's lack of hustle and the team was in the middle of a 2-14 streak, wouldn't you kind of blow your stack right then and there? Why would you get everyone together the day after to express your displeasure? Is this a last ditch effort by Trembley to show that he can be a tough guy when he needs to be?

Well, he's not that guy. It may serve him well in most instances but not in this one.

Meanwhile, some of the players are defending Trembley. Says Nick Markakis:

"I don't think you can blame Trembley," Markakis said. "We're the ones out there pitching and hitting. I think he's done a good job overall. There's only so much a manager can do. The rest of it is up to the players. If you're going to point fingers, you can put it on my shoulders. I'm not swinging the bat the way I'd like to.

Markakis is hardly to guy to be pointing fingers at. He's been hitting .324 and slugging .459 over the last 9 games...if only everyone was hitting so poorly.

Dave Trembley Loves the Small-Ball

According to MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli, Dave Trembley is having the O's focus on the fundamentals. You know, like bunting.

"I'm trying to add some things here that will be an emphasis on the team, and allowing us to be in a position to win more games," Trembley said. "It's the little things that obviously were prominent that might not have gotten done the way we wanted to get it done last year. So, let's brush up on it in Spring Training, but lets also emphasize the importance of it."

I'm OK with this in general. Some players should know how to bunt. The baserunning needs some work. But nobody on this team needs to be bunting on a regular basis. Maybe Brian Roberts, certainly Cesar Izturis and perhaps whoever will be hitting #2. On occasion.

But it's that last comment that concerns me, "...but lets also emphasize the importance of it." That tells me that Trembley sees this style of play as the key to winning in the American League.

This is confirmed by his quote to Roch Kubatko about the spring training hitting stations...

"Before they can get to the round where they swing, they have to get two bunts down, execute the hit-and-run, get the guy over, get the guy in and get the squeeze down before they can go to the next phase...."


The hit-and-run. It's back.

Again, I don't mind the drills, I'm just scared that Trembley might start actually using these tactics. This team isn't built for this style of ball. The only time you might want Luke Scott or Matt Wieters bunting would be with a runner on second with no outs in the 9th, down by one run. And even then I would rather take my chances with them swinging away.

If you play for one run, that's all you're gonna get. That's what Earl Weaver said.

I'm a big Trembley supporter. He'll lose me quick if he starts laying down bunts and putting on the hit-and-run on a regular basis. It's a recipe for disaster in the AL East.

Base Hits: The Long Road Home, Records Broken and Top Draft Picks Galore

I predicted that September would be ugly for the O's but after winning series' against the Yankees and the Rangers, you started to think that they would be competitive with the weaker part of their schedule. I was wrong the second time.

11 straight losses including sweeps at the hands of the Blue Jays and Indians have put 100 losses back on the table. It already has them in line for the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft.

               W    L    GB
Washington    53   103   --
Baltimore     60    96   7.0
Pittsburgh    59    96   7.5
Kansas City   64    93   10.5
 

Facing the Rays and the Blue Jays this final week, the Orioles are just about assured of getting the 3rd overall pick and have a great shot at the 2nd pick of the 2010 draft. My advice at this point: keep losing

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Also in this last week, Jeremy Guthrie has a chance to give up more home runs than anyone in Oriole history. He has given up 32, the record is 35. Unlikely, as Guthrie has pitched better in September but well withing reach.

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Speaking of records, it has been widely reported that Brian Roberts can reach 60 doubles this season. He has 55 with 6 games left so it is unlikely that he will reach 60. But 60 is kind of an arbitrary number. The real milestone is 58.

If Roberts hits three more doubles, he will have one of the top ten seasons for doubles since 1901. That's what I'll be looking for this last week.

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The Orioles and Sarasota have selected the firms that will renovate Ed Smith Stadium, the new Spring Training home for the team.

The plan is to "either tear down or renovate" the stadium after Spring Training 2010.

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Will Dave Trembley return in 2010? It's not looking good.

(Oriole GM Andy) MacPhail has said for months that the club won't make a decision on Trembley's option for 2010 until either the last weekend of the season or a couple of days after it ends...

MacPhail met with Orioles owner Peter Angelos last week to discuss Trembley's status, but he continues to say little about the situation...

MacPhail has talked repeatedly about the importance of avoiding a late-season swoon, which has became an annual rite for the Orioles. He made it clear Sunday that he isn't pleased with the way the club has played on its current 10-game road trip...

Macphail has also said that while the record counts, the management will have to examine underlying factors as well. Yes, they do.

But it's going to be hard to not fire Trembley at this point. That's not where Dave wants to be.

Trembley or Not Trembley? That Is The Question...

I've been seeing a few posts speculating on Dave Trembley's future as manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Or to be clear, they have been calling for Trembley's head after yet another losing season of Oriole baseball.

What strikes me as odd though is that most people are focusing strictly on the team's record. If you had a problem with Trembey's affection for the hit and run or aggressiveness on the basepaths with players who are ill-suited for the task, I could understand that a bit. Maybe even if you blamed him for the baserunning and fielding lapses, I would be with you. Maybe.

The bottom line is this: With the team Baltimore fielded in 2009, I'm not sure that anyone else could have done a better job.

The starting rotation we fielded on Opening Day included Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Alfredo Simon. We bolstered it with the likes of Rich Hill and an array of rookies who were, for the most part, rushed to fill the holes. Koji Uehara got hurt. Jeremy Guthrie is having his worst season in the majors.

The bullpen was a relative strength until the rotation fell apart. Guys were overused, fresh (and lesser arms) were brought up from the minors to help.

There was no offense to be had from the corner infield positions. Offense from the catching spot has been erratic. Overall, the lineup has had many solid performers but no stars. That kind of lineup will have trouble scoring when you are getting nothing from shortstop, third base or first base at the plate.

So this was/is a team with promise but a lot of flaws. The fatal flaw, of course, is that you compete in the AL East without a real pitching staff.

What could Trembley have done? Yelled really loud at Adam Eaton to make him pitch better? Gave a really nifty pep talk to Rich Hill and turn his season around? Shake Melvin Mora until he starts hitting like it's 2003? I don't think there's anything that Trembley could have done that would make any difference in the standings.

The truth is that Dave Trembley is not going to be judged by anything that happened on the field this year, not in a tangible way. Andy MacPhail is going to talk to his players, especially Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts and get their take on it. Has Trembley lost them or does he have their support? He's going to talk to Trembley's staff. He's going to talk to his people in the front office. He's going to talk to other coaches around the league. And then he's going to look at the record.

If Andy feels that the team could use a new voice, he'll make a change. If he feels that Trembley's philosophy of play no longer jibes with his, he'll make a change. But I really don't think Trembley has done anything wrong. I had a ton of reasons that Sam Perlozzo needed to go. Not so much with Trembley. There's nothing obvious (in my opinion) to point to since the record is a reflection of the whole organization, not just the manager.

I don't know if Trembley will be back in 2010 but that decision will be made by MacPhail and internal discussions not due to the record.

All this said, I'm OK with either scenario. Until he proves otherwise, in Andy I trust.

Base Hits: 7/16/2009

It's the traditional midseason point so let's look back at my pre-season predictions!

"I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore."

Hayden Penn posted in 7.77 ERA in 16 games for the Marlins and was sent to New Orleans about 6 weeks ago and has only posted a 4.50 ERA since he got back to AAA.

Andino has not been great but his slick fielding came in handy when Cesar Izturis went down with an injury. So far, dead wrong about this one.

"Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July."

Well, Simon was out of the rotation by the end of April but because of injury instead of ineffectiveness. He did suck though. So I'll call this one correct.

"Matt Wieters is here in May."

Nailed it.

"Brad Bergeson is here in July."

Beregesen came up in April due to the Simon injury but he would have forced his way into the rotation by May anyway. He's ahead of where I thought he would be. I'll call this one a push.

"Brian Matusz is here is September."

Matusz dominated A+ Frederick and is dominating AA Bowie. A September call-up looks to be in his future. So far, so good.

"The Orioles win 72 games."

The O's are on pace for 66 wins. They would have to go 32-42 to reach 72 wins this season. Not impossible but for now, I've overestimated the team.

(edit: A commenter named Brett has pointed out that I made a miscalculation; 40-48 is good for a 73 win pace. So I was close...)

"Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie."

Montanez posted a 1.000 OPS in AAA Norfolk...but in only 10 games. In 18 games in Baltimore he put up a .6s0 OPS. Montanez is hurt but I'm correct on this one.

"Nick Markakis OPS's .900+"

Whew. I had this one wrong. Barring a white hot second half, Markakis will be lucky to reach an .800 OPS, let alone .900. So much for the Markakis breakout season.

"Felix Pie gets better in the second half."

He couldn't be much worse. But will he even get an opportunity in Baltimore?

Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.

A couple months ago, this looked like a slam dunk but a recent homerless draught put the goal in question. Jones has 12 homers and should be able to reach 20 with little problem.

Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.

Wigginton and Scott haven't had a straight platoon at all (no surprise) but Wigginton hasn't hit lefties well (his forte before this season) and and Scott has crushed lefties that he hasn't hit well in previous seasons. It's like Scott stole Wigginton's soul. Dead wrong.

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Baseball America's Hot Sheet, which ranks recent performances of minor league prospects, ranks Brian Matusz #1 and Chris Tillman #3. That's pretty cool.

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I don't think Dave Trembley's job is in jeopardy and it seems like Jeff Zrebiec is trying to create a story where there is none. I'm not sure what makes this column any better than idle speculation on any blog or message board. You expect a little bit more from a real "journalist"; Zrebiec didn't even bother to go as far an Ken Rosenthal and get an anonymous source.

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Fort Myers is looking less and less like the next home of Oriole Spring Training. Staying put in Ft. Lauderdale?

(edit: It looks like the Sarasota deal is back from the dead...)

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Steve Melewski has the rundown on Bowie reliever Ryohei Tanaka.

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He's been kind of overshadowed with all the other talented pitchers in the Oriole farm system but RHP Tim Bascom has rebounded from a bad 2008 season in Frederick to pitch extremely well for the Keys and now the Bowie Baysox. Bascom has struck out 57 against only 23 walks in 90.3 innings pitched between those teams. He's not dominating but it's not difficult to see him in Norfolk's rotation in 2010 and perhaps in Baltimore (either starting or relieving) in 2011.

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Adam Loewen is posting a .243/.348./.696 line at high A Dunedin. However, in the last month he is posting a .304/.424/.464 line and .364/.440/.591 over the last 7 days. In other words, he's trending up as a hitter.

Jerk.

Base Hits: 7/8/2009

This story was somewhat troubling to me. Pie and Salazar, two guys I have championed, are drawing interest from other teams in terms of trades.

Obviously, the merits of trading either of them would depend on who they got in return. If the O's got less back for Pie, I would be OK with that. The starting outfield positions are set and the Orioles have internal options for 4th outfielders in the organization (Lou Montanez, Joey Gathright, even Jeff Fiorentino). Better to get something for Pie than lose him on waivers. Salazar is another matter. I think he's already a better option at third than Melvin Mora (a player who will not be back next year) and I don't know why you would move a guy who provides some depth at the corner infield positions when that need will be glaring in 2010. Salazar provides a good bat and flexibility as he can play the corner outfield spots, third and first.

Hopefully, Salazar sticks here. If someone has to go, Pie makes the most sense.

Of course, someday we may be looking back at this and wondering why we were in such a rush to bring back Cesar Izturis in the first place. Robert Andino has displayed much better range in the field and is cheaper to boot. The only reason Izturis is starting at short for this team is the roughly $7.5 million he is owed for the rest of his contract.

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B.J. Ryan was released by the Blue Jays today. The Jays are not released from their financial obligation however and will have to pay Ryan about $15 million to finish out his contract. That's $47 million for 75 saves.

The Orioles were criticized as being cheap when they let him go to Toronto but sometimes it's just a smart move not to pay the big money.

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Replays? We don't need no stinking replays?

Dave Trembley on the edge of madness after last night's ejection.

Evidence that Dave Trembley is a cyborg:

1) He hasn't slept in a week.
2) He can replay all the team's plays in his head.
3) That odd resemblance to T.J. Hooker.
4) The built-in lie detector. Once he determined that Nolan Reimold was telling the truth about being past second base during the errant throw in the first, he really went ballistic.

Classic Trembley quote:

"You laugh, you think I'm funny. You have no idea what I've gone through. No idea. I can't talk for a week now, my hat is a mess."

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Who is Eric Crozier?

Eric Crozier is a former 41st round pick of the Cleveland Indians. He had a cup of coffee with the Blue Jays back in 2004 but he has bounced around the minors since and in 2008 he signed with the independent Atlantic League team, the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs. In the cultural and baseball purgatory that is Waldorf, MD, Crozier posted an .856 OPS hitting .265 with 13 homers. Hardly the stuff of legend.

This year, however, Crozier hit .314 with 8 homers in 50 games for the Blue Crabs and an OBP north of .400. The Orioles came to take a look and about three weeks ago, signed him and put him on the Baysox. In 18 games, Crozier has destroyed Southern League pitching slugging .574 and OPSing .959. Interesting "depth signing" for the Orioles and an interesting player to keep an eye on.

Base Hits: 6/4/2009

Sure, Baltimore dropped the series in Seattle but you can console yourself with the fact that the O's have played the second hardest schedule in the majors this season. Only the Indians have had it rougher. Maybe the NL East is the remedy?

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Sure the Orioles lost 3-2 last night...OR DID THEY???

Obviously, Yahoo Sports considered that first inning shot by Huff a fair ball...

On the bright side, you have to be impressed by how well Brad Bergesen and Matt Wieters work together. Two starts, both at least 7 inning outings with 2 earned runs apiece.

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I like Dave Trembley. I really do. But his odd "aggressive" base runnning and hit-and-run tactics are a bit overused and misguided. Sure, Brian Roberts and Adam Jones could be employed in these maneuvers...but Aubrey Huff?

But zknower of Camden Chat says it way better than I could. And even Peter Schmuck gets in on the act. OK, Peter advocates for the sac bunt but IF you're going to play "small ball", he has a very valid point. And IF, you're going to play "small ball" why not use Felix Pie as a pinch runner late in the game?

I'm an Earl Weaver guy...pitching, defense and the three run homer. Didn't Earl say that the 27 outs you get at the beginning of the game are your most precious commodity? (I have to stop repeating myself and just find that quote...)

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OPACY has made PETA's Top Ten Vegetarian-Friendly Ballparks for the first time. As a spouse of a woman with specific dietary needs, I appreciate that Camden Yards offers veggie burgers, veggie dogs, salads and fruit cups. It's good for the consumer and prevents me from having to eat elsewhere before the game. But the clever PETA rhetoric goes just a little too far...

Birds fans would be disgusted to know that the meat industry drugs chickens and turkeys, making them grow so fat that their legs often become crippled under their own weight. Luckily, Orioles diehards can help prevent such cruelty by choosing mouthwatering vegetarian options...

That's the new logo! Cartoon Oriole bird, engorged from feasting on it's Major league opponents, no longer able to support his mass on his own spindly legs!

Or....maybe not.

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Luke Scott leads the AL in ISO (Raw Power like The Stooges, baby) at .339, tied with Jason Bay. He leads the league in slugging at .669. Streaky hitter? Yes. Could he hit 30 this season? I think so. He being much more disciplined at the plate. His strikeout rate has dropped and his walk rate has ticked up a bit.

MacPhail may have fleeced Seattle but getting Scott as a throw-in in the Tejada deal is becoming a pretty good fleecing too.

Base Hits: 5/20/2009

Chris Ray is sporting an ERA north of 8.00...and that's a problem. Has he lost his fastball? Not really. His average fastball speed is 94 mph which is a couple mph off his 2007 levels but it's still not bad. But he doesn't trust his fastball anymore.




He used to work off his fastball, now not so much. He went from throwing it 72% of the time to throwing it less than half of the time. The slider and, to a greater extent, his change up are far more prominent and the results have not been good.

Why doesn't he believe in his fastball? It seems like he's still getting good horizontal movement but not quite as much movement vertically. Maybe that's the issue? Regardless, it's time for Ray to go to Norfolk to work it out. Matt Albers was better than this.

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As a fan of baseball and Jack Kerouac, I knew that he had concocted his own imaginary league of baseball teams that he played for much of his life. But I had never seen the evidence of those leagues until this week. Great stuff.

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Pie in May - .286/.355/.536
Montanez in May - .226/.294/.387

Which one needs to go to Norfolk when Scott comes back?

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Another great installment of the Eutaw Street Chronicles over at Roar From 34.

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Jay Trucker of the Examiner is not thrilled about new Baltimore Sun sports columnist Kevin Cowherd and pulls no punches...

In your "introduction," you noted that you covered sports for The Evening Sun from 1981 to 1987. I’m sure that if you want to, you will once again be an excellent addition to the Baltimore sports writing dialogue. But be forewarned. This isn’t 1987. Slip up, and you will have to deal with more than a letter to the editor or two. If you take a nap at your typewriter, awaken 20 minutes before a deadline, and rattle off 300 words explaining that Jeremy Guthrie’s “lack of fire” and “mental weakness” are to blame for his recent pitching woes, I will retaliate -- with facts and empiricism.

I don't disagree with many of Trucker's assertions in genereal. But shouldn't we wait until Cowherd writes his first baseball column, Jay?

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The Loss Column is concerned about Dave Trembley's habit of pulling starters after six innings or after 100 pitches.

I think the issue is that we don't have any pitchers capable of going more than 6 innings. Only Jeremy Guthrie would qualify and he has not performed up to expectations. More a function of personnel than managing.

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This is pretty cool. The Norfolk Tides are now putting game highlights up on YouTube. Here's the highlights from yesterday's game:

Base Hits: 6/27/2008

"That's how you're gonna beat 'em, Butch. They keep underestimating you."

- Butch Coolidge (Pulp Fiction)

Dateline Chicago: O's Just the Second Team to Take Series From Cubs at Wrigley in 2008

When Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella saw his interleague schedule, he was relieved.

The Cubs were matched up against the American League East this season, but didn’t draw the Yankees or the Red Sox. Turns out, he should’ve been worried about the Rays and the Orioles...

The Cubs (49-30) won two of three at Toronto but dropped five of six against the surprisingly good Rays and Orioles.

“I thought maybe we caught a break,” Piniella said. “But this was before we played Tampa Bay and Baltimore.”

They keep underestimating you Orioles. That's how you're going to beat them!

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Buster Olney talks with some Oriole players as they continue surprise this season. And he's honest enough to admit he only had this team winning 56 games this season.

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I wonder how long Sam Perlozzo will be able to hang on to his coaching gig in Seattle? Doesn't look like Perlozzo's sunny disposition is helping anything out there.

But Dave Trembley is certainly helping things in Baltimore. A good article about the Orioles skipper over at Pressbox Online.

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Win Share data on the Trade Tracker is updated now. The Tejada and Bedard deals continue to look great in the short term as well as the long term.

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I can't believe I didn't think of this earlier but the Orioles are eliciting some great reaction shots from the opposition. So here's today's Oriole-Inflicted Grimace of the Day:

This Jason Marquis grimace is courtesy of an Aubrey Huff double in the third inning of yesterday's game.

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Want to learn more about the newest Baby Birds? Nobody is doing it better than Camden Depot as they look at each draft pick the Orioles made in 2008. (Well, at least the first few picks...)

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Song of the Week: A sons from Canadian indie rockers Arcade Fire. This one's called Rebellion (Lies). Have great weekend and let's sweep the Nats!

How to Make Jay Payton Look Awesome (and trade him...)

First, I present the headline for yesterday's O's game on ESPN.com:

Manny's snag, high-five steal O's thunder

Hey, ESPN! There's a school called Fordham University. Some people call it FU. That's right ESPN, FU.

Anyway, far be it for me to tell the great Dave Trembley what to do. (That's not sarcastic at all, I think he's doing an excellent job...) But he's making a big mistake that is affecting the Orioles on the field and in the front office.

As I mentioned yesterday, Jay Payton can only do two things well at this advanced stage of his career: serve as a passable defensive replacement and mash lefthanded pitching.

It's an evolution that has been happening gradually over the past 3 or 4 seasons but the transformation is now complete. Jay Payton is a guy you call off the bench to pinch hit against lefthanded relievers or give him spot starts against lefty starters.

If Dave Trembley would start deploying him as such, Payton will succeed and get the attention of contending teams in the National League. Good pinch hitters are not easy to come by. A veteran who could pinch-hit (like Payton) could be seen as a commodity come the trade deadline.

But only if you start his "branding" now. He's a righthanded bat off the bench who can rake lefties and a fine defensive replacement. Start using him that way now and it'll pay dividends in the box score and maybe get you a young minor league arm that is worthy of pitching in the Oriole bullpen in 2009.

Baltimore Orioles: First Quarter Report

With an off day today, the Orioles have essentially wrapped up the first quarter of the season. So how are they doing?

First, let's discuss the record. The Orioles stand at 19-19. That's .500 at the quarter season mark for a team that was nearly universally thought to be well on their way to losing 100 games in 2008. Some thought it would be worse than the 1988 Orioles or at least in the ballpark. This team now has to go 43-81 the rest of the way to reach that goal. I just don't see it.

I thought this team would be slightly better than the 2007 version but figured they would struggle early and get better. They have been decent early with many indicators pointing to the team getting better still. Is a winning team a reasonable expectation? Maybe not. Flirting with .500 certainly is.

Pleasant Surprises

Brian Roberts remains with the team. He may not be here in August but I didn't expect him to see Mother's Day with the club.

Daniel Cabrera's performance.

George Sherrill. I liked the addition of Sherrill but had no idea he could be a closer or do it so well. Wayward O did though.

Brian Burres holding down a spot in the rotation and doing pretty well.

Jim Johnson, Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate and Matt Albers aiding the veterans to give Baltimore a credible bullpen.

Disappointments

The offense as a whole. I have detailed that they are hitting better than the numbers say but it is still pretty frustrating that these guys can't consistently get hits.

Adam Loewen on the DL. He'll be back but you have to wonder if he'll ever be healthy enough to learn how to pitch.

Steve Trachsel. Trax is a placeholder and that was the intent when he was brought in but he has done little to hold on to that spot in the rotation he has.

Shortstop. Turns out Luis Hernandez couldn't field either. He has looked good at second base though.

Luke Scott with only one homer. Leftfield in Camden Yards is cursed. It's the Curse of B.J. Surhoff. Ever since The Warehouse traded Surhoff to Atlanta at the 2000 deadline, nobody has given us consistent play in left. (OK, B.J. came back and did it for a couple of years but he was only a part-timer at that point.) Granted, Scott is still an upgrade from what the O's have trotted out the past few seasons but I expected the guy to slug at least .400.

In my pre-season look at the Orioles, i identified 5 reasons to be optimistic:

Improve Outfield Production

Although I am a bit disappointed with Scott's bat so far, he is OPSing .727 which is a big improvement from the .631 OPS Oriole leftfielders put up last year.

Adam Jones isn't there yet. He's OPSing .631 compared to .713 from Oriole centerfielders last year. But he'll get to at least that production by season's end.

Markakis has struggled a bit with his average but is still OPSing about what he did last season (.852 vs. 847).

Jay Payton? He's been bad overall (.655 OPS) but against lefties is OPSing .792. I really wish Dave Trembley would stop giving him ABs against righthanders.

The outfield isn't there yet but Adam Jones will improve.

The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

Correctamundo. Trembley has handled the pen better and managed to build a pretty effective relief corp.

Rebounds

Aubrey Huff has rebounded a bit. Still waiting for Ramon Hernandez.

A Better Bench

Kind of a moot point with the team carrying 13 pitchers until very recently but no it's not any better than last year. We shall see what Freddie Bynum and Alex Cintron can do.

A Decent Manager

Considering that very few things have been clicking at the same time this season, Trembley has done a pretty good job. He has the team at .500 (which is one game above their Pythagorean Record) while still getting the youngsters the majority of the playing time.

His recent decision to go with a four-man rotation (for the time being) shows he's willing to make unorthodox decisions to mask his team's weaknesses.

The Next Quarter?

They survived the road but now you have to survive the AL East. Over the next month there will be lots of games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. No pushovers (save Washington) until the Pirates come to town a month from tomorrow. The good news is that outside of the Red Sox, all the teams in our division are pretty flawed right now.

It's a tough task but the next logical step for the Baby Birds to get this team back to respectability.

Second Guessing the Second Guessers

Some examples from last night's game. People second guessing Dave Trembley for putting in kid pitcher Bob McCrory for his major league debut in a two run game:

hmm..
if you reeeeaaaallllly wanted to win this game… down 3-1 .. perhaps you bring in a tested relief pitcher. maybe try and keep us in the game.. not experiment, you know?
now, if we were down 6-1, i figure maybe try it out. Or if we’re up 6-1, bring him in.
Bad move throwin him out there in a game that was somewhat in reach.
by Y Not

Manager Dave Trembley made an interesting call when he decided to let Bob McCrory start the seventh inning. A pitcher making his major league debut in a two-run game. Not an ideal way to break him in...Trembley has been pushing the right buttons this season, but he's open to a little second-guessing tonight.

- Roch Kubatko

Now, to be fair, the general tone has been more of a "s**t happens" mood than a "s**tty manager" tilt but just so nobody gets any ideas, I thought I'd look at how Dave Trembley throws his young relievers into the deep end of the pool.

Dennis Sarfate - Dennis made his Oriole debut on April 4th. He had been in the majors before but only for a couple mugs of java. He ends April 2008 only 3 innings short of his previous career total.

Sarfate was called upon with the O's leading Seattle 3-2 with two outs and one on in the top of the 6th and squared off against Adrian Beltre. He struck him out.

It was still only a two run game in the top of the 7th when he walked Brad Wilkerson and then struck out Jose Vidro. (Wilkerson was thrown out on a steal attempt...)

Jim Johnson - Johnson had exactly 5 innings of major league work when he was called up a couple of weeks ago. In his first game, he pitched an inning at the end of a 6-2 loss to Tampa.

But the very next day he came in in the 6th with the Orioles holding onto a 3-1 lead against Toronto. He pitched 2.3 scoreless innings.

Randor Bierd - Bierd had never pitched above AA before this season and he only compiled 45 innings at that level.

Bierd made his major league debut on April 2nd. It was the top of the 5th, the Rays led 5-3, there was nobody out and the bases were loaded. Bierd induced a double play ball and a groundout to limit the damage. He then went on to pitch a scoreless 6th and the O's would come from behind to win the game.

What's the difference between these scenarios and last night's debut of Bob McCrory? Last night it didn't work out. It happens.

But more importantly, Trembley has to do it even if he doesn't think it'll work out. Repeat after me: this team is a work in progress. I do not care what the standings say, all these kids need to play and any veteran on this team should be traded if the opportunity arises. It is more important for Trembley to find out what McCrory is made of than worry about winning a game you are already losing by two runs.

Trembley's reasoning for sending McCrory out there, according to Roch:

Manager Dave Trembley explained his decision to use McCrory in the seventh inning by saying it seemed like a good situation, with the Rays sending up the bottom of their order and the Orioles trailing.

Seems logical to me. The kid has to debut sometime. Right? And isn't it nice to have a manager who seems to be thinking before making a move?

This teams Pythagorean Winning Percentage is 13-14 and Trembley has them at 15-12. they were outscored by 6 runs in April, yet have a winning record.

I'll defer to Dave for now...

Random Thoughts on the Last Two Games...

Wayward O has covered this nicely but I had to throw in my two cents.

Lots of lashing out at Dave Trembley for leaving Jeremy Guthrie in the game so long Tuesday night. Really? My complaint about Trembley has been that he doesn't leave his starters in long enough. I'm certainly not going to come down on him for erring on the other side of the equation.

But the real issue here is expectations. Some people are acting like this is a team of contenders. They're not. Three weeks ago, 100 losses were being touted across the O's blogosphere and general baseball press. Now that the team started 11-8 (now 12-9), people are acting like Trembley should be trying to keep the O's in the race. They are wrong.

Trembley gave his pitcher a chance, a pitcher who said he could get the job done. (Enough of the "every pitcher wants to stay in" argument. Tired.) Trembley hasn't seen what Guthrie can do in this situation so he decided to find out. Dave gave him the opportunity and Guthrie couldn't deliver. I don't expect Trembley to make the same mistake twice.

The point is, this is Trembley's first full season as manager with a lot of players who are in their first or second year in the big leagues. He is still learning what these guys may or may not be capable of and that's exactly what he should be doing in 2008, wins and losses be damned.

This team will be very fortunate to get to .500 by years end. It's important to remember that.

Nobody knows what kind of team the Orioles really have. I'll cut Trembley some slack while he works it all out. But if he does it again, I'll kill him for it.

*****

Wayward O also posted this defensive gem by Jeremy Guthrie but you must watch it again. It may be the best defensive play you see all year. (Of course, Ramon Hernandez fired the ball into rightfield right after that, negating everything.)

*****

Anyway, I have admitted I am a sucker when it comes to Daniel Cabrera and while I'm not sold by this latest run of success, it is easy for me to get carried away. I'll be taking (yet another) closer look at this later.

*****

"Spanky" Huff is an idiot. It's a good thing he can hit home runs because he certainly doesn't seem to have a head for the game. Anybody see him practically run over Juan Samuel as he ran through the stop sign and got thrown out at home? If Juan Samuel's not sending you, you have to be dead to rights. Juan hasn't been conservative enough of his tenure as thirdbase coach. Home runs or not, Huff must go and Scott Moore must take his place.

*****

Josh Kalk is a wiz with PITCHfx data and has created "player cards" for each pitcher's 2008 season thus far. Most interesting among Orioles is Jim Johnson's card where his similarity score shows him to be closest to Josh Beckett. I'm not sure how he calculates similarity but any comparison to Josh Beckett cannot be bad.

How Baltimore Can Win The East: The Case FOR Baltimore

That's right. The case FOR Baltimore.

I've read too many articles, projections, previews and predictions that talk about what is going AGAINST the Orioles. Enough actually, that my dander is up, spurring me on to finally write this final installment.

Rally round O's fans! The eternal optimist will turn his head upward towards the rest of the division, glare defiantly, roll up his sleeves and lick his chops.

1. Outfield Production

First, forget about Nick Markakis. Forget that he is projected to steadily improve on his solid numbers from last season. I mean, just forget about that for a moment.

I have bemoaned the lack of offense at the centerfield and (especially) leftfield for the last two seasons. That, however, is about to change.

OPS of Oriole leftfielders from 2005-2007: .670, .681, .631

Let's assume that Luke Scott just comes in and posts the .855 OPS he had last year. Hell, let's just assume he posts his CHONE projection of .789...you see what I'm getting at? Scott is a huge upgrade from anything we've had in leftfield since B.J. Surhoff was a useful player. Nice upgrade at a position that sorely needed one.

OPS of Oriole centerfielders from 2005-2007: .668, .715, .713

Meet Adam Jones. We all love projections, don't we? Jones is projected to post an OPS over .800 by Bill James and ZIPS. That and good defense will go a long way towards improving the team overall.

Overall? The outfield looks to be the best Baltimore has fielded since 1999.

2. The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

I don't think so. In 2007, questionable personnel were put in bad positions and overworked early in the season by Sam Perlozzo. That changed under Dave Trembley and if not for a season ending injury to closer Chris Ray and lefty Brian Burres being pressed into starting duties (due to injuries to the staff) it is conceivable that Dave Trembley may have been able to keep the bleeding to a minimum after her took over.

The bullpen returns the two best performers from 2007 (Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford) adds another proven commodity in George Sherrill (even if he's not in a role he's proven at). Brian Burres (may) be back in the pen as a long man which is the role he's best suited for. The rest will be some mix of Dennis Sarfate, Greg Aquino, Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry and Jon Leicester. Really, are any of these arms worse than Paul Shuey, Rob Bell, Kurt Birkins or Todd Williams. I say no.

Down on the farm Bob McCrory, James Hoey and others await as backup and Chris Ray may return late this summer.

The O's had a historically bad bullpen and still didn't lose 100 games in 2007. It will be difficult to be that bad again. For that reason alone, the pen looks better by default.

3. Rebounds

This is a minor factor to be sure but every little bit counts. Ramon Hernandez was not as bad as he looked last year. He will be better and indeed he is projected to be better. Aubrey Huff is projected to be somewhat better. Even Melvin Mora is projected to have a slight uptick by the Bill James projection (Although, just holding steady will be fine with me...)

Some minor improvements by some of the underperforming vets could squeeze out a win or three over the course of the season.

4. A Better Bench

This one's dicey because we really don't know who will be on that bench. But Guillermo Quiroz is a better bat off the bench than, say, Paul Bako. Scott Moore will be there and when he's playing Millar or Spanky will be on the bench. Freddie Bynum and Tike Redman will be nice pieces to play with.

All of this is dependant on the fact that Jay Gibbons doesn't return. I can't imagine he will but stranger things have happened.

5. A Decent Manager

For the first time since Davey Johnson left, we seem to have a manger who is inventive enough to explore his teams strengths to try and win. He took unorthodox measures in 2007 when shorthanded (batting Corey Patterson 2nd, Kevin Millar as a cleanup hitter) and he knows how to manage his bullpen and his bench. These are good qualities to manage a team that will have plenty of disadvantages out of the gate.

Trembley is used to being the underdog. Did anybody here think he would be able to remove that interim tag from his title when he took over for Sam Perlozzo last season. I sure didn't. Trembley's playing with house money and he's playing to win.

Conclusion

Do I really believe the O's can win the division? No. Do I believe they will be the AL doormat? No. Do I believe this will be a fun team to watch? Yes. Do I believe they can be competitive and flirt with .500? Yes.

Keep writing Baltimore off. I like it.

photo courtesy of the Baltimore Sun

Tim McCarver is a Douchebag...

...sorry, just had to get it out of my system.

Just saw Kevin Millar throw out the first pitch in Boston and give Boston's starting lineup. There's my Baltimore tie-in for the ALCS.

OK, so who had Leo Mazzone getting fired and Terry Crowley keeping his job?

First, I love the fact that Dave Trembley is cleaning house. It certainly appears that the club has given him great sway in choosing his staff (even some people in the minor league organization) and the firing of Mazzone bears that out. Statistically speaking, as I posted at the end of September, the pitching staff under Mazzone has actually regressed:



Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2004 and 2005: 101 and 106 respectively
Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2006 and 2007: 84 and 88 respectively

Was it all his fault? No. The material was very weak to begin with but Mazzone had issues helping out bullpen pitchers in Atlanta too. Maybe Trembley decided they needed someone a bit more well-rounded?

Jim Duquette is gone now and Mike Flanagan's role will, it seems, be greatly reduced if he remains in the organization.

First base coach Sam Treijas resigned and bench coach Tom Trebelhorn was fired.

But against all odds, Terry Crowley remains! Evidently, Nick Markakis speaks highly of him. You can't get a better endorsement in Baltimore than that. Personally, I find the role of a major league hitting coach pretty overrated. Once you get to majors, a player who can hit already knows how to hit. The hitting coach with the big club isn't goin to do much but help marginal hitters get better. Corey Patterson got appreciably better once he showed up but obviously the hitters in general did not under Crowley's tutelage. I guess we'll see.

I love the fact that the Orioles are getting infused with new blood. God knows the old guard wasn't doing much to promote success in the organization.

Odds And Ends

Trembley's Solid

Dave Trembley will be announced today as the manager of the Baltimore Orioles which I think is a pretty good thing. Rick Maese is conflicted and seems to think some big names may be available in the offseason. Ozzie Guillen? Won a series on the strength of and amazing pitching staff but seems to be losing his players only a year or two removed from World Champion glory. Joe Torre? Knows how to manage superior talent which the Oriole do not have. Tony LaRussa? I don't believe he would ever come to Baltimore. I'm guessing that Andy McPhail now believes that he has no chance or luring Joe Girardi (the next Yankee manager?) so we mught as well stick with the guy we have, who has shown some modest success since taking over. In my first post referencing Trembley, I referred to him as "that bullpen guy". He has certainly been making people notice ever since. Sometimes the guy just keeping the bench warm turns out to be the best man for the job.

More Help Off The Waiver Wire

The O's have signed RP Fernando Cabrera who the Indians put on waivers last week. This is a perfect signing for Baltimore as Cabrera is the prototypical low risk-high upside type of guy that Leo Mazzone was famous for straightening out in Atlanta. With the probable loss of Chris Ray for the 2008 season (an issue I haven't addressed here but will later) Cabrera could add some much needed depth and he'll be cheap to boot. Who knows? With his stuff and Mazzone's tutelage, he could be an important factor for Baltimore in 2008. It's certainly worked OK for Jeremy Gutherie, Brain Burres and to a lesser extent, Rob Bell.

The Answer in Left?

Tike Redman, huh? Although his career averages in production would surpass the production the Oriole shave trotted out the last two years, that doesn't make him a good player. He's ultimately no better with the bat then Jay Payton and although he's fast he isn't a very good basestealer. I'd rather see Freddie Bynum get the reps out in left than Redman. If Redman's anything other than a 4th outfielder on this team in 2008 I'll be very disappointed.

O's Unlucky?

Bill Ordine's O By The Way blog has pointed out quite correctly that the Orioles record is not as good as it should be according to the Pythagorean Winning Percentage. This formula predicts a win-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed and is typically accurate within 3 or 4 games. This year the O's have a 58-65 record but an expected record of 63-60, a swing of five games in the wrong direction.

What has the Baltimore Orioles underachieving? Their putrid 10-24 record in one-run games. Now some of that is luck but I believe that bad management leads to a lot of close losses too. (It's no surprise that the last two seasons where the formula expected a winning ballclub and got a losing one was in 1998 and 1999, the Ray Miller years.) I blamed Sam Perlozzo for losing the close ones but has Dave Trembley fared any better?

Taking the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) using runs scored and runs allowed since Trembley took over versus the True Wining Percentage (TWP):

PWP - .543 - 29-25
TWP - .543 - 29-25

So what is apparent to the eye seems to hold true by the numbers. While Perlozzo had the team underperforming relative to production, Trembley has them right where they should be. That's good news for next season...

Meanwhile, On the Field of Play...

...the Orioles struck a blow for all that is right in the world by beating the Yankees in extras and taking the series in the Bronx. Winning series against the Red Sox and the Yankees back to back...that's very sweet.

I feel bad that Bedard did not get the win but it was almost sweeter to come back and win it in extras.

Have I mentioned how much I hate Shelley Duncan? He hits that fluky three-run homer and gave me a heart attack. With a name like his he should be playing Peter Pan or something, not playing major league baseball. And I hate how he jumps up and down like a friggin' 8 year old everytime on of the Yankees hits a homerun. Sit down and act like you belong in the major leagues. Stupid little forearm bashes. He makes me sick...

Anyway, a win is a win. Jeter got plunked, Jeter made an error, Jeter went 0-4 with two strikeouts, all good things.

Trembley gets some heat for how he's using the bullpen but, hey, he's only using wht he's got. With injuries and bad free agent signings (Mr. Reluctant...I'm looking at you), he's done a pretty good job at juggling guys around. If it doesn't work, he's not afraid to change it and try something else. I like that about this manager.

So it's off to Toronto and then the Rangers, Twins and Rays come to Baltimore. Hopefully, the momentum will continue...