Luke Scott Shouldn't Be Here to Begin With

"I should be in Atlanta..."

OF/DH Luke Scott has been non-tendered by the Orioles and is now a free agent.

Scott has been an underrated slugger (in my opinion) for several years. Despite derision from some fans for his "streakiness", he always ended up his seasons as one of the better hitters on the club and did it at reasonable salaries. But a serious shoulder injury has put his future in question and the Orioles did not feel comfortable paying him $6M or more in 2012.

That is an understandable decision. What is less understandable is why Scott was on the club in 2011 and why they have to make this decision in the first place.

I'll never fully understand the free agent strategy during the 2011 offseason. The club signed a mediocre reliever for $10M and a 2-year commitment (I will not speak his name...). They signed not one, but two aging veteran reclamation projects in 1B Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero committing more than $15 million on the gamble. (The only signings that kind of made sense were low money deals to SS Cesar Izturis and SP Justin Duchscherer. Neither worked out for the club but they weren't bad risks to provide potential depth.)

I've beaten the horse well past dead explaining how signing Lee in conjunction with Guerrero was unnecessary at best and would block promising (and cheap) prospects like Nolan Riemold at worst.

But lets say that you did want to sign those two and that you felt Guerrero still had enough left in his bat to be a serviceable DH.

Why keep Luke Scott?

Scott was coming off a career season at age 32. His trade value had been and never would be higher. With Lee and Guerrero on board, Scott was going to be pushed to leftfield where he was going to be only a fair fielder in the best of scenarios. The O's had Reimold and Felix Pie to platoon in left. Once you've made those other signings, Scott was a luxury that a rebuilding team could no longer afford.

Surely Scott could have brought back a couple of middling prospects. Maybe a cheap major league reliever. That would not be an ideal scenario but once you've pulled the trigger on Vlad, why not? As it stands now, Scott can sign with any team and the Orioles will receive nothing.

I just don't get it. Sign Lee. Or sign Vlad. Or sign both and trade Scott. But to sign both and keep Scott in 2011? It just didn't make sense. It was almost as if Andy MacPhail was gearing up for a playoff run. But could anyone look at last year's roster and truly believe this was a contending club? It was a stretch to view them as a winning one. There was so much that needed to go right for just a shot at a .500 record. But The Warehouse didn't treat the club as a rebuilding entity. Were they pandering to the fan base? Did they really believe the team was better than it was?

They needed to get some value for a guy that was made redundant by free agent signings but the Orioles refused to sell high.

Non-tendering Scott now makes a lot of sense. But keeping him a year ago, given the other free agent signings, certainly did not.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Luke Scott

It seems like anytime I sit down to write about Luke Scott, I feel compelled to defend him.

This is because the Oriole fan base still underestimates him and they fail to understand what a good hitter he is. The Vladimir Guerrero signing has highlighted this fact yet again. When debating the relative merits of the two players, I was told that I was "way overvaluing Luke Scott" (even though over the past 3 seasons, Scott and Guerrero have exactly the same .845 OPS and that Scott has a better park-adjusted OPS+, 122 vs 121, than Vlad) and that Luke did not "significantly outperform" Vlad in 2010 (even though Scott posted a .902 OPS while Guerrero put up an .841 OPS. I'd call that significant). Just when I thought it was impossible, Luke Scott is getting even less respect than he ever has, even after his best season to date. He's quickly becoming the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball.

I won't even address the assertion that signing Vladimir Guerrero "gives the O's a legitimate clean up hitter which the Orioles have NOT had since Palmeiro" (yes, these are all actual quotes) since I already have, a couple of times. Scott was one of the premier cleanup hitters in the American League last season. Period.

But since people are quick to dismiss 2010 as Scott's career year, a performance that he won't be able to repeat...fine. One year means nothing. Evidently, three years means little as well. So let's go back five seasons and see how Luke stacks up.

Looking at all qualified MLB batters over the past five seasons, Scott ranks 27th in slugging and 17th in Isolated Power. That puts him just on the cusp of all the elite power hitters in the game. And he has sustained it for five seasons.

I'm going to quote The Hardball Times' Steve Treder once again as he gives a wonderful definition of the cleanup hitter:

The role has been called "cleanup" since forever for a reason: See the runners soiling the pristine white bases out there? This guy's job is to clean them bases up, get them runners home.


Obviously it's great if a cleanup hitter hits for a high average and/or draws a lot of walks, but if he's doing either or both of those things without hitting for power, he isn't properly performing the cleanup function. Setting the table is a means to an end, not an end in itself; the purpose of getting on base is to come around and score. The cleanup hitter is there to convert baserunners into runs, to finish what the others have started. And that means hitting for power, and plenty of it.

Sounds like Luke Scott to me.

For the past 5 seasons:

                         AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+   ISO   2B   HR
Luke Scott 2006-2010    .272  .357  .512  .869   126   .241  131  103

Pretty nice numbers, huh?

I think it's safe to say that Scott is a good bet to at least slug .500 and get on base at a .350 clip. That's a nice floor for a player who continues to be better than anyone will give him credit for.

So if you want to give Mr. Guerrero the label of "legitimate cleanup hitter", that just fine. But just know that now the Orioles have two of them.

Why Signing Vlad Guerrero is a Bad Idea

As much as I hate commenting on hypothetical moves, it seems I'm already arguing about them on Twitter. So now I will elaborate as to why I am not thrilled with the idea of Vladimir Guerrero coming to Baltimore next season.

1. Vlad Guererro isn't Vlad Guerrero Anymore

From 1996 to 2007, Vlad was a monster. He hit .325/.391/.591 with 365 home runs and an OPS+ of 148. However, for the last 3 seasons he has hit .300/.350/.496 with 71 homers and an OPS+ of 121. That's a good hitter but not a great one. In addition, he can no longer play the field anymore. So given that he is no longer a monster at the plate...

2. Vlad Won't Help This Team That Much

If I believed the Orioles were going to contend this year, loading up on veteran help would make a lot of sense and would be banging the drum loudly for this signing. But this team is not a contender. Not this year. I figured that if everything goes perfectly and Vlad repeats his performance from last year, he might be worth a couple extra wins. Dan at Camden Crazies broke it down some more and figures Vlad would only be worth one win, maybe. So will it make that big a difference if this team wins 73 games instead of 71 or 72? I don't see how. Besides...

3. We Already Have A DH Who Hits Like Vlad

Over the past three seasons, Vlad has an .845 OPS. Luke Scott also has an .845 OPS over that span. In addition, he can still play the outfield or first base making him a versatile and valuable player. But why couldn't the team move Scott back out to left field and let Vlad DH full time? Well they could but...

4. Vlad Robs Young Hitters of At Bats

Vlad's signing would push Scot to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play. Or by some chance, Brandon Snyder puts it together and tears up the International League. Without Vlad, Snyder could come up and DH with Scott moving to left. Not possible with Vlad on the roster. Ditto for Josh Bell.

At this point, it's more important for Pie and Reimold to get the at bats so the team can see if they will be useful nuggets going forward and to have flexibility to call up hitters from Norfolk who are deserving of promotion.

This team isn't going to win or lose because of Vlad Guerrero. Its fortune ride on the offensive development of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold and on the advances Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and (possibly) Zach Britton make on the mound. An aging DH isn't going to make or break this team. So leave him alone and let the guys who are a decade younger play ball.

Luke Scott has Wacky Opinions, Sky Still Blue

Luke Scott has revealed his thoughts to David Brown of Yahoo Sports on a myriad of subjects: hunting, guns, politics, Mark Reynolds, Ted Nugent and...yeah, the birthplace of the sitting President of the United States.


DB: You don't think that Obama wasn't born in the United States, do you?


LS: He was not born here.


DB: [Sighs].


LS: That's my belief. I was born here. If someone accuses me of not being born here, I can go — within 10 minutes — to my filing cabinet and I can pick up my real birth certificate and I can go, "See? Look! Here it is. Here it is." The man has dodged everything. He dodges questions, he doesn't answer anything. And why? Because he's hiding something.


I'll use a variation of a fact I use a bunch when people get upset at the actions or words of a professional athlete: Hey, nobody said ballplayers had to be bright. These guys are paid to hit and catch a ball, they didn't go to college on academic scholarships. Many of them fit the stereotype of the dumb jock. So why would I hold them up to a higher standard than other dummies I meet in everyday life? My days of hero worship are long behind me.

Look, I'm not a gun owner but I don't disagree with many of Scott's assertions about the 2nd Amendment and he's correct about how human hunting helps balance out ecosystems. And being slavishly devoted to one side of the aisle or another? That's just America these days.

But the whole "Birther" thing? Well, that just means you're a big dummy. Or at least you have a really big blindspot when it comes to President Obama.

But I'm also not going to tell Luke Scott to "Shut up and play ball!" either. He has the right to his opinion and I hate it when athletes are villainized for being honest. That's why so many ballplayers come off as so vanilla these days. If nothing else, Scott's candor is refreshing and certainly entertaining.

And I'll still be pulling for him to put one a few on the Eutaw Street this season....

Luke Scott: The Invisible Slugger, Part 2

From Roch Kubatko's post on MASN yesterday titled "Deciding the Top DH for 2010":

The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award will be presented next month, which makes sense, considering that we're down to our final day of this month...


The two leading candidates are Vladimir Guerrero and David Ortiz. One player looked like he was finished and didn't draw a tremendous amount of interest on the free agent market. The other player looked like he was finished once the season began and dealt with all sorts of speculation about being benched or released...


The ballot calls for members of the media to cast votes for first and second place. I just need to figure out the order.


While Roch lays out Scott's numbers, there is no case made for him to be on the ballot. Not once.

Some key stats for the trio overall in 2010:

OPS   wRC+  2B   HR     
Ortiz       .899   137   36   32
Guerrero    .841   124   27   29
Scott       .902   143   29   27  

And the trio's DH numbers only"

OPS   OPS+  2B   HR     
Ortiz       .908   140   35   31
Guerrero    .850   125   25   25
Scott       .955   152   19   23

Luke Scott trumps them all.

Now, given the closeness of their rate stats and the fact that Ortiz has more than 150 PAs more than Scott as a DH, you can make the argument that Ortiz should get the edge over Scott. But Guerrero? It's not even close. He certainly belongs on the ballot, if not the winnre of the award.

But Roch Kubatko, a guy who watched Scott all year long, doesn't even make a case for him. Scott's 2010 is going down as one of the most overlooked offensive seasons in Oriole history.

Luke Scott...Still the Invisible Slugger

Yet again, I am compelled to defend Luke Scott as a premier slugger in the American League. That's right, I said it. Premier. Slugger.

Seeing these two items over the past week show that the perception of Scott does not match the reality, especially the Scott we saw in 2010. The first is from a comment I saw on a post at Baltimore Sports Report. The other is the closing line in a Baltimore Sun article by Jeff Zrebiec.

I do believe that Markakis gets even better if you put a true #4 bat in this lineup. - MGW

The offense also lacked a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter, a commodity that MacPhail has made a priority again this offseason. - Jeff Zrebiec

Now, I am not picking on the commenter or Zrebiec, just using them as examples of the (still) widespread perception that the O's did not have a "legitimate" clean up hitter or even a true "middle-of-the-order" caliber bat. They did and they do. Perhaps you've heard of him. His name is Luke Scott.

What is a clean up hitter? Beyond the obvious position in the batting order, what is his job? Steve Treder of The Hardball Times explains it far more eloquently than I can:

The role has been called "cleanup" since forever for a reason: See the runners soiling the pristine white bases out there? This guy's job is to clean them bases up, get them runners home.


Obviously it's great if a cleanup hitter hits for a high average and/or draws a lot of walks, but if he's doing either or both of those things without hitting for power, he isn't properly performing the cleanup function. Setting the table is a means to an end, not an end in itself; the purpose of getting on base is to come around and score. The cleanup hitter is there to convert baserunners into runs, to finish what the others have started. And that means hitting for power, and plenty of it.


Power. That's what a cleanup hitter is supposed to deliver. Why? Because the farther the batter can hit the ball, the longer it will take for the outfielders to get it back into the infield, giving the baserunners the most time to circle those bases and score. The guy who hits it the farthest, the most often, should be you cleanup hitter. Simple concept, right?

I have advocated Scott as the cleanup hitter in past seasons because he had very good power and there were scant options otherwise. This year, that was not the case. Scott was a legitimate cleanup hitter and hit for great power in 2010. And power is measured in slugging percentage (SLG) and Isolated Power (ISO)

AL Leaders in SLG for 2010

                SLG
Hamilton       .633
Cabrera        .622
Bautista       .617
Konerko        .584
Beltre         .553
Scott          .535
Cano           .534
Ortiz          .529
Wells          .515
Swisher        .511

In addition to those names, Scott out-slugged Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Evan Longoria.

In terms of Isolated Power (ISO):

AL Leaders in ISO for 2010

                ISO
Bautista       .357
Cabrera        .294
Hamilton       .274
Konerko        .272
Ortiz          .259
Scott          .251
Wells          .242
Quentin        .236
Rodriguez      .236
Beltre         .233

Scott also posted an ISO higher than Teixeira, Longoria, Robinson Cano and Carlos Pena.

So, 6th in the league in both stats that evaluate power, finishing ahead of many hitters that would universally be considered middle-of-the-order bats. The Orioles did not lack a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat in 2010...they had one of the best in the league.

But the word still hasn't managed to get out...so I guess I'm going to have to keep beating this dead horse until it does.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 2

Thanks to all the astute readers who pointed out that Mark Hendrickson could not be retained for $200k next season. That's the number on his buyout for 2011; he would make $1.2 million if his option is exercised. It didn't look right when I was typing it and a second look at Cot's Baseball Contracts confirmed that it was not. Thanks for the heads up guys!


We took a look at the payroll in Part 1, now let's look where some money needs to be spent. The Orioles have big needs at first base, third base, shortstops and on the pitching staff. Here's some ideas of how to fill these holes.

First Base/Designated Hitter

Pricey Options

Adam Dunn

Dunn is hitting free agency again after playing out his 2-year and, again, I will stump for his signing. Dunn is a butcher in the field but he wouldn't hurt you a ton splitting his time between 1B and DH. (Leaning more toward DH but I don't think he hurts you so bad at 1B that he can't start in the field 90-100 games a year.) I howled for him to be signed after 2008, especially when it became apparent that Mark Teixeira could not be signed. In fact, I imagined he could produce as well at the plate for half the money. And he did even more than that:

2009-2010      AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Dunn          .264  .378  .533  .910
Teixeira      .274  .374  .523  .897

Andy, it's time to buy a bat.

Oriole first basemen have OPS'ed .676 over the past two seasons and the O's paid their 2010 Opening Day first baseman $4 million to suck really hard. Meanwhile, Dunn was making $10 mil per year and crushing it.

The thing is, he's still undervalued. I think you can lock Dunn up for $13-14 mil per year for a 4-year contract. That gives you Dunn for his age 31-34 seasons and gives you one of the best DHs in the American League.

Furthermore, it would allow you to trade Luke Scott and prep Nolan Reimold to take over regular first base duties. Scott may not make the $7.5 mil I estimate but unloading that cash to another team for a couple prospects or some relievers makes sense. His value will never be higher and he would still be under control via arbitration for the next two years. There's no place for Reimold in the Oriole outfield right now, he can fill a need at first. If Reimold never returns to his rookie year form, Dunn helps soften that blow as well.

Victor Martinez

The Orioles value versatility and Martinez could offer some of that. Although Martinez is past his prime as a catcher, you could still see him catching on and off giving the O's more flexibility in the lineup. He's a good hitter.

The problem is, he's not really the power bat that many perceive him to be. Sure, when you hit 20-25 homers as a catcher, that's nice power. As a first baseman, that fairly average.

Also, there's likely to be more competition to sign Martinez. He will almost certainly cost at least what Dunn does over a longer contract. Moreover, there are candidates who will cost less over shorter contracts who could produce similar numbers. More on that below.

Mid-Range Options

Derrek Lee

There are a lot of mid-range candidates for first base out there who could be had for relatively modest money over two-year contracts: Paul Konerko, Troy Glaus, Adam La Roche, Lyle Overbay. But I figured I'd focus on two. Derrek Lee could come at a relative bargain.

Lee may find the demand for his services lacking after a down season. He'll be 35 in 2011 but is just 2 years removed from a 35 homer season. Like Adrian Beltre last year, Lee may be willing to sign a one-year deal to reestablish his reputation and try to get a better deal a year from now. You wouldn't want to go longer than a two-year deal with him but you could DH him some, help keep him healthy and he could put up V-Mart type numbers for the next two seasons. It's an option while our 1B prospects in the minors sort themselves out.

Carlos Pena

Anyone in baseball could have had Pena for a song 4 years ago. Now someone will have to pay.

But not that much, really. Pena had a pretty bad year for the Rays and didn't even hit .200. But he still had 28 homers and an ISO north of .200. He's not a perfectg player but he's a prime candidate for a rebound. Again, a 0ne or two year commitment as a stopgap while better options mature in the minors.

Budget Options

Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold

As I said last season, deploying Scott as a first baseman early in the season with Reimold playing DH until his Achilles tendon was healthy would have been a nice option for 2010. Now, we'll never know.

I still don't think this is a bad plan. Let them both play first and as Reimold's bat comes back, ease Scott back into a DH role and/or trade him. But I don't think this is a likely option since the Orioles are reportedly targeting a big bat for 2011.

Ty Wigginton

Of the flotsam that may be left for cheap out there, I'd be OK with signing Wiggy back for cheap to play some first and some third for 2011 as long as it was for $2 mil or less and a one-year deal. His versatility would allow him to move to a bench/utility role once a better option at first was found.


Third Base

Pricey Options

Adrian Beltre

Beltre is only an option for the Orioles if they are certain that Josh Bell cannot play in the majors at all. Beltre will be 32 next season and is coming off a fantastic year in Boston. he will be expensive and he will command at least a 4-year deal. Lots of money for a guy who will be on the wrong side of 35 when his contract is up. But he's a fine bat and a stellar defender at third. But I think $13 mil per season is what it would take to sign him, at the very least. I'm not sure that's the kind of guy the O's want to lock up for a long contract.

Mid-Range Options

Brandon Inge

If you want to give Josh Bell a real shot, you probably shouldn't sign a guy like Inge either since he would take away playing time for Bell even in a part time role. But Inge gives you a fine glove and nice power for the position. He should come fairly cheap and very short-term.

Budget Options

Josh Bell

The cheapest way to go is just to let Bell play and be ready for him to suck. The club should sign a Ty Wigginton type as a bench/utility guy who can spell Bell and provide an emergency replacement. But I think Bell may become a serviceable player and has some nice upside. I expect that the Orioles will give him every opportunity to prove himself in 2011.



Next: Shortstop and the Pitching Staff

Nolan Reimold To The Rescue?

From the Oriole Insider blog on BaltimoreSun.com:

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Nolan Reimold went 4-for-5 with a double, homer, two RBIs and a stolen base against Louisville last night. In seven August games with the Tides, Reimold is batting .400 with two homers, seven RBIs, three walks and two steals. Overall, he’s batting .238 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and six stolen bases in 73 games.

It’s obviously been a long and trying year for Reimold, who was supposed to be the everyday left fielder in Baltimore. Instead, he hit .205 in 29 games and has been in the minor leagues since May 12. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said there has been some discussions about promoting Reimold, but nothing is imminent at this point.

I don't believe that Reimold was healthy to start this season and that certainly didn't help things. The silver lining to his struggles and subsequent demotion? Reimold could compete for the first base job in 2011.

Reimold has played 38 of his 73 games in Norfolk at first base. And his hot August is no fluke. Even though he only posted a .235/.361/.382 line in July his BABIP was only .238 when his line drive percentage supports a BABIP in the .290's. In other words, Reimold was unlucky in July and has been hitting the ball a lot better since the beginning of July. (He has also walked 21 times since July 1st against just 16 strikeouts.)

Reimold should get a September callup but with Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, there is no room for Reimold in the outfield. A 1B/DH split with Luke Scott makes some sense and adds a decent right handed power bat the the Orioles lineup needs.

Luke Scott: An Appreciation

Luke Scott has been under appreciated throughout his career.

Cleveland traded him as a minor league for pitcher Jeriome Robertson, a 26-year-old with a 5.18 ERA over 43 career games up to that point. He proceeded to hit like crazy in the Houston system. The Astros saw him as a platoon player only (even though his career splits were not crazy: .875 OPS against righties, .793 vs lefties) and threw him in as one of 5 players sent to Baltimore in the original Miguel Tejada deal.

Even after Scott had proved himself as a legitimate slugger (if a flawed overall hitter) with Baltimore, was he given the role of cleanup hitter in 2010? No. Coming into the season, Tejada was given that job, despite years of declining power.

What? You doubt he was a legitimate slugger? From 2008 through today, Scott has the 10th best ISO in the American League, right behind Evan Longoria, just ahead of Justin Morneau. He's 12th in slugging, tied with Shin-Soo Choo, just ahead of Paul Konerko.

But he is never mentioned with those players. Again, much of that has to do with the fact that he doesn't hit for a great average and hasn't ever hit more than 25 homers (although that looks to change this year). But he has led the Orioles in slugging over for the past three seasons, yet has batted cleanup only 49 times in his career (including the last 15 games for Baltimore).

In the absence of a Prince Fielder or an Adrian Gonzalez on this team, Scott should have been the obvious choice but was overlooked.

Chris Jaffe wrote an article for The Hardball Times (at the prompting of Dan from Camden Crazies) examining Buck Showalter and his manging style. This in particular jumped out at me:

Also, it's especially important that he get such good OBP from his table setters, because if there's one thing his teams have been good at over the years, it's slugging the ball. Twice a Showalter-managed team led the league is Isolated Power, on two other occasions they finished second, in a fifth year they came in third, and in two more campaigns they came in fourth. Not bad for an 11-year haul.


Thinking it through, there's a clear theme to everything above, a theme that represents Showalter's offensive philosophy. He isn't playing for one run at a time, but prefers going for the big inning. To that end, he'll try to put good OBP at the top of the order so his big boppers can drive runners in...

I don't want to overstate my case. Showalter's no magician who automatically makes everyone a better power hitter (Soriano, most notably, did not improve under him). My point is much simpler. Baseball can be like any other workspace in that employees respond to items their boss pays more attention to. 

Buck is going to find a way to keep his power bats in the lineup. I have a feeling that if Showalter had been hired in the offseason, Scott would have been given every chance to win the first base job instead of being relegated to DH by default. Scott won't be overlooked again...not while Buck is the manager.

Roster Moves and Random Thoughts

OK, is everyone satisfied now? Luke Scott is hustling out of the box. Do you believe it now? And now he's hurt himself. Next time, I'll take the trot for the double.

Sure, I'm kidding. But the fact that Scott pulled a hamstring during a home run trot pretty much sums up the season, doesn't it? After a horrific April, Scott put up a line of .306/.376/.590 with 10 home runs over June and July. He was looking like a nice trading chip for the Orioles, now he'll be out for at least 2 weeks.

It was assumed by many that Felix Pie would be brought back from his rehab assignment a little early to take Scott's roster spot but instead they called up Norfolk 3B Josh Bell. The top hitting prospect in the minors, Bell is only hitting .265/.310/.453 in AAA but has been hitting better of late, hitting .269/.337/.495 in June. Expect Bell to struggle mightily; he strikes out a ton and doesn't walk much.

Bell may not be long for Baltimore though as Felix Pie is close to returning to action. With only three outfielders and a ton of infielders, Bell will probably get his taste and get sent down...barring a trade.

Pie will push Corey Patterson to the bench which is as it should be. But I have to say that Patterson, in his short time as a leadoff man...has kind of done a decent job. As a leadoff hitter, Corey has hit .295/.345/.423 with 12 stolen bases (vs. 2 time caught). That's decent. No, it can't possibly last but I have to tip my hat to him.

By the way, Matt Wieters is getting worse. His OPS by month in 2010 goes like this: .686, .663, .606. We need a new manager to perform triage on Wieters...stat!

Streaky Orioles (or How Streaky is Luke Scott Really?)

How streaky is Luke Scott? That's the question that inspired this post.

Streaky is kind of hard to define. For this exercise, I tracked various Oriole batter's monthly OPS over the last three years. The batter had to have a full three years of action so guys like Adam Jones and Matt Wieters were not included. I then averaged the monthly OPS totals so there was a baseline for each player. Ultimately, standard deviation will be used to determine which players are the most steady and the most streaky.

First, here's the graphical representations.

Ty Wigginton

Miguel Tejada

Brian Roberts

Nick Markakis

Cesar Izturis

Luke Scott

Obviously, Luke Scott's graph jumps off the page but Miguel Tejada and Ty Wigginton have some streaky tendencies too.

How's the standard deviation break down?

            Standard Deviation
Izturis             0.095
Roberts             0.109
Markakis            0.113
Tejada              0.138
Wigginton           0.155
Scott               0.206

The semi-streaky Tejada and Wigginton pale in comparison to King Streaker Scott. He is, indeed, a very streaky hitter.

One other thing of note is how steady Brian Roberts has been over the last three seasons. Jeff Zrebiec mentioned in an article last season that Roberts was a streaky hitter but this exercise show no such evidence.

Garrett Atkins Banished to Bench, Luke Scott Siezes 1B

I completely missed this since I did not watch the game last night and I am just now getting around to checking box scores but Luke Scott started at first base last night in Arlington. Apparently, it's going to stay that way for awhile.

"Luke Scott right now is swinging the bat well for us. Going in to play the Nationals, where there is no DH, I have to try and find a way to get a lineup where the best eight guys are in there for us," Orioles manager Dave Trembley said. "I think that's why you see Luke playing first base tonight in anticipation of him doing that against the Nationals. That does affect Garrett Atkins tonight, and it probably will affect him somewhat when we go play this weekend."

And this is as it should be. Scott wants to play the field, has offered on numerous occasions to man first base and even before the season had a much better bat than Atkins. Unfortunately, it took desperate times for Trembley/MacPhail to try something like this. (And just in case you think I'm second guessing, I assure you I am not.)

The recall of Scott Moore does not bode well for Atkins either. On the off chance Moore gets off to a hot start, we may finally see the end of the Atkins era in Baltimore. The Rays just swallowed much more money to be rid of Pat Burrell.

Lineup Solutions: Luke Scott vs. Hideki Matsui

As the Oriole offense stumbles along, solutions and Monday morning quarterbacking reign in the world of Twitter. One person wondered how much better the offense would be if Baltimore had not signed Garrett Atkins, traded Luke Scott and signed Hideki Matsui instead.

We pretty much agreed on Atkins so the debate became Scott vs. Matsui as primary DH heading into 2010.

Here's some background numbers:

Salary for 2010:

Luke Scott:      $4.05 mil
Hideki Matsui:   $6.00 mil

Slash Lines for last 3 Seasons:

Scott   .257/.342/.486
Matsui  .284/.368/.479

ISO for Last 3 Seasons:

Scott    .230
Matsui   .196

Below are graphs showing Scott's and Matsui's monthly OPS compared to their averages over that span to demonstrate their "streakiness". First, here's Scott:

And here's Matsui's:

Scott's Standard Deviation: .206
Matsui's Standard Deviation: .146

So, Matsui is a slightly more well-rounded hitter, getting more out of his batting averge than Scott. He also is less streaky but his Standard Deviation is only 60 points of OPS deviation different than Scott. Not sure it's that significant but it's a point in his favor.

Scott is just as patient, has more power, is cheaper, younger and can still play the field. (Matsui is an absolute butcher in the outfield; Scott is, at his worst, adequate.

Going into 2010, you could point to Matsui as the slightly better all-around bat but he loses in every other category. Matsui may be the better hitter but Scott is a better ballplayer.

While Scott's streakiness is maddening, he's also a very good bet to turn it around before the end of the season. I would still assume that Scott will give the O's more in terms of WAR that Matsui gives the Angels by season's end. (ZIPS projections for the rest of the season seem to back this up with Scott projected to OPS .788 the rest of the way.)

Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Excercises in Oriole Lineup Optimization

Just so we're clear, this post is NOT in response to last night's heartbreaking loss to Tampa. The creeping fatalism, once so identified with Red Sox fans, that has taken hold in Birdland will not breach the ramparts of Dempsey's Army. I so swear.

No, I started looking at this before the game began, when I looked at the lineup and saw that Dave Trembley had designated Miguel Tejada as our Opening Day cleanup hitter. That's right, the guy who hasn't ISO'd north of .200 since 2005, the man who has only slugged more than .450 once in the last three years (.455 last season).

So, I wanted to see how much that was hurting the team. So I went to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis site to check it out.

First, I entered last night's lineup with 2010 CHONE projections for the lineup:

Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Miguel Tejada
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

This lineup is projected to produce an average of 5.128 runs per game or 831 runs over the course of the season.

Now, I entered the lineup I would like to see. (We'll forget about the personnel for a minute and just rearrange them...)

If you check in regularly,you know I have endorsed Luke Scott for cleanup hitter to start the season. I have framed this argument using slugging percentage or ISO but I think I need to break it down to more basic levels. Here's what I like in my cleanup hitters...With runners on base, I want him to hit the ball a long, long way, as far away from home plate as possible so that the base runners have the most time possible to round the bases and reach said home plate. The further he hits it, the more likely the base runners are to score. He might even hit it over the fence. And I want him to do it more often than anyone else on the team. Silly me.

Right now, that man is Luke Scott.

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Adam Jones
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Miguel Tejada
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

How does this version shake out? This lineup would score 5.148 runs per game or 834 runs per season. That's only three extra runs per season. Better but probably not that significant.

What's the optimum lineup?

Roberts
Markakis
Scott
Wieters
Jones
Pie
Atkins
Tejada
Izturis

This lineup would score 5.157 runs per game or 835 over the course of a season, only one more run than my lineup.

However, what if we moved Luke Scott to first base and plugged in Nolan Reimold at first base?

The best lineup would look like this:

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Pie
Scott
Izturis

That lineup would produce 5.274 runs per game or 854 runs over the course of the season.

So as you can see, lineups are fairly overrated, at least in comparison to upgrading the talent which moves the needle much more.

As long as you keep Izturis in the 9th spot and Roberts in the 1st, you can jumble around the rest of the lineup with only two or three runs difference over the course of the season. Could that mean a win or two? Sure. But I think this difference could be made up for with luck on either side. But replacing Atkins with Reimold instantly adds 19 runs over the course of the season. Now that's a huge difference.

So maybe we Oriole fans should worry less about the order of the lineup and more about the personnel that comprises it.

Harvest the Chesapeake with Luke Scott

Now here's an offer you don't get everyday...

WFN: World Fishing Network, the nation's only 24-hour fishing lifestyle TV channel, enters the Chesapeake region today in a big way. With the help of Baltimore OF/DH and avid angler Luke Scott, WFN is making its presence felt with the launch of a consumer sweepstakes and a web site - http://www.wfnchesapeake.com. - dedicated to finding the Chesapeake ’s most passionate angler.

Scott, who has hit 48 home runs for Baltimore over the past two seasons, will pick one lucky angler to spend the day fishing with him at the 27^th annual Championship on the Chesapeake spring tournament on May 1, 2010. The fishing trip will be covered by a WFN camera crew and will air on the network at a later date. The grand prize also includes $1,000 and WFN merchandise. In addition, all entries received by April 1, 2010 will be eligible to win two tickets to see Scott play in the home opener on April 9, from the WFN luxury suite.

Chesapeake area anglers can go to http://www.wfnchesapeake.com to enter.

As a lad in Oklahoma, I remember my uncle would hunt catfish from his bass boat with a bow and arrow. I imagine that Luke Scott would fish with the same level of activity and zeal. Except instead of a bow and arrow, he might use a high-powered rifle. Or an industrial whale harpoon cannon.

Wait a second, has anyone told Scott about Mondy? Hey Luke, for the love of all that is holy, don't harvest Mondy!

Luke Scott Equals Gilbert Arenas? Logic Fail.

So Washington Post reporter Dan Steinberg tweets this today:

@dcsportsbog: Orioles DH Luke Scott says he's brought guns into MLB clubhouses. Waiting for national outrage to begin.

And then he links to this post in the DC Sports Blog. There he makes these points:

Gilbert Arenas didn't become a pariah solely for bringing handguns into an NBA locker room. I get that. He violated D.C. gun laws, leading to severe legal problems. And he violated the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, which expressly forbids players from bringing guns onto NBA property.

Let's start here. Scott neither violated any laws (at least, none that we know of) and didn't violate any league or team rules. These rules have only been created and enforced in the last few months. Those two distinctions make these situations worlds apart to begin with.

Now, did Scott use the weapons as part of a practical joke during an argument with a teammate? Was he part of a story so messy and entangled that someone wound up chucking a weapon across the room? Does he have a history of inappropriate jokes, including sneaker defecation? No, no and no.

More differences that are ENORMOUS. They don't even deserve a comment. Onward.

But he brought a weapon into that sacred and secure athletic safe haven we heard so much about throughout Gil's Gunz coverage, and so these are some folks I'd be curious to hear from in the coming days.

Then he quotes/links to a bunch of writers who commented on the Arenas situation...but the quotes are removed from the very context that Steinberg just laid out for us.

The differences in these situations is staggering. Arenas (who evidently did not bring guns to the stadium on a regular basis) allegedly brought the guns to the locker room, showed them to a teammate who he was having a gambling dispute with, perhaps as a joke, perhaps as a veiled threat, an act that resulted in weapons being loaded with ammo and brandished.

All we know about Scott is that he carried guns with him, left them in the locker room and after the game, left with them. Nobody was any the wiser because he conducts himself like a responsible gun owner and not some clown. Thus, Luke Scott has never has a "Gilbert Arenas Moment". Not even close.

If you are sitting around waiting for the same moral outrage about Luke Scott that you saw about Gilbert Arenas then you'll be waiting a long time. Because anyone can see that the situations aren't even in the same ballpark...pun intended.

Luke Scott Loves the Firearms

Luke Scott understands the recent ban on firearms in the workplace by MLB but that doesn't mean he has to like it.

"I don't think that everyone else should be pay for the mistakes of a few," said Scott, one of baseball's most vocal gun rights proponents. "There is a good reason behind the rule, I can't deny that. The reason is you cannot trust 25 guys in a locker room to have the same respect and training as I do with a weapon. That I do understand. I've carried a gun for 10 years. I've carried them in the locker room and nobody really knows about it."

Scott's got a point that I agree with in principle. However, I can't think of many workplaces that will allow you to bring weaponry on the premises these days.

On the flip side, professional baseball has been around 130 years and just instituted this ban a few months back. I can't remember one incident involving a ballplayer and firearms. Can you?

Luke's given this a lot of thought:

"We have good security," Scott said. "It's hard to get in here. Barring a tactical entry where terrorists come in and hold us hostage, that's about the only thing that could possibly warrant me carrying a gun in the clubhouse. That's highly unlikely and I admit that."
  
Wow. When the zombie apocalypse goes down, I'm heading to Luke's place with a truckload of canned ravioli and bottled water. This is the man you want to lead you in a crisis. I'll bet he actually has a zombie apocalypse contingency plan.

Whether you agree with Scott's statements or not, you have to give him credit for speaking his mind, especially since he works for a league that doesn't take kindly to criticism. Just ask Peter Pascarelli.

Could Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott Play First?

This comment under my Luke Scott post got me thinking...

Replace Atkins with Pie and that lineup is a thing of beauty. It would go



S L R L R S R L S


No consecutive batters from the same side. Man I wish Trembley would let Reimold or Scott play 1st.

math_geek

First, I hadn't realized how well balanced the handedness was in my sample lineup.

But really it got me thinking about first base. Why couldn't Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott play first on a regular basis? You could still sub in Atkins to add flexibility and give Reimold his reps in left. But replacing Atkins with Pie would give the O's the best offensive lineup.

CHONE Projections for the players involved:

OPS
Atkins      .739
Reimold     .832
Scott       .808
Pie         .767
 

Even Pie is projected to be a significantly better hitter than Garret Atkins. And even if we assume average fielding from Reimold in left, Pie is a big upgrade with the glove.

Reimold and Scott would both be big offensive upgrades over Atkins but how big is the difference in their defense? For his career at first base, his UZR is -6.3. That's only over 708+ innings and is a bit of a small sample size. We'll bump him up to -.3 UZR and give him the benefit of the doubt.

Now, we can measure this in terms of WAR. How badly would Scott or Reimold have to play at first to offset the offense they bring to the table. Plugging some values into the WAR spreadsheet, this is what I came up with. (I am assuming all will be equal baserunners.)

UZR
Scott     -19.0
Reimold   -26.0

The worst defensive first baseman (of regulars) in baseball last year was Billy Butler. His UZR was -7.4. You will occasionally see a guy have a season with -16, -18 UZR (Mike Jacobs had a -19.4 UZR in 2008) but it would be virtually impossible for Scott or (especially) Reimold to play first base so badly that they would offset their much improved bats.

The best choice would be to make Scott the everyday first baseman, rotate Pie and Reimold through LF/CF/DH with Adam Jones and bring Atkins off the bench.

But that's not happening.

The Crystal Ball '10: Luke Scott

Now that Miguel Tejada has returned to the Orioles, there has been a lot of talk that he will be the de facto clean up hitter. But this isn't 2004. Tejada is not a slugger anymore. But Luke Scott is.

While batting orders are overrated in general, the classic wisdom wants your most powerful hitter in the clean up spot. The most powerful hitter on the Oriole roster is Luke Scott. He led the team in slugging in 2009 and if not for Aubrey Huff's career season and Mora's last gasp of baseball life in 2008, he would have led the team in slugging in 2008 too.

But he has posted an ISO (you know how I love ISO) north of .200 for the past two seasons and no other player on the roster has done that. If fact, since 2005 Scott has an ISO of .231, tied with Matt Holliday and ahead of hitters like Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Vlad Guerrero and Curtis Granderson. He is an excellent power hitter and just on the cusp of levels that could be called elite (he's 26th since 2005...). Raw power? Scott's got plenty of it.

But for all the power he displays, Scott has hit cleanup only a handful of times since joining the team. For 2008, I can understand it as Huff was on fire and slugging .522. But last year? Only 8 games as the cleanup hitter. Scott is a flawed hitter. But he has the most important attribute for a guy hitting #4 in your lineup. Raw power.

A sample lineup:

1.  Brian Roberts

2.  Nick Markakis

3.  Adam Jones

4.  Luke Scott

5. Nolan Reimold

6. Matt Wieters

7. Miguel Tejada

8. Garret Atkins

9. Cesar Izturis

Who else is a better option? As they stand now, only Scott is a real threat to slug .500 and ISO north of .200. There's no reason not to plug him in and let him drive those runners in. So let's give him a shot and watch him rack up the RBI.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0