Before the 2010 season completely slips from memory, I thought I'd throw out a few positives about Oriole coverage in this 13th straight (!) losing season. My thoughts are colored by being a member of the Oriole Diaspora and having little access to MASN or local radio. You fans still in the Baltimore area may have other opinions on local media. Feel free to share them in the comments.
4. No Buck Martinez - The gaggle of former Oriole players who combined to replace Buck Martinez in the booth for MASN television broadcasts were not overly impressive but they were still far better than listening to Buck. If there was a guy going through the motions the last couple of seasons, it was Martinez. His opinions were poorly informed, he was full of non-sequiturs and his mannerisms were just plain irritating. Don't believe me? Tune in to a Toronto broadcast sometime and listen to him do play-by-play. Good riddance. I'll take Mike Boddicker any day.
3. Britt Ghiroli - MLB.com's Oriole coverage before the 2010 season was pretty sparse and, quite frankly, very missable. MASN, The Baltimore Sun and independent blogs did it much, much better. Enter new Orioles beat reporter Britt Ghiroli. Britt began employing Twitter almost immediately and her MLB Pro Blog, Britt's Bird Watch, was actually updated on a daily basis at the very least. Multimedia tweets, interaction with the fans and breaking news on Twitter made her something of a pioneer in social media among Oriole beat reporters. Britt has made MLB's coverage of the Orioles relevant again and brought a fresh, energetic voice to mainstream Oriole coverage. We thank her for the effort.
2. Twitter - Twitter has been a blessing for the Oriole news junkie in 2010. In terms of media members untilizing Twitter, Ghiroli pretty much led the way here, too. But she wasn't the only one. MASN's Jen Royle and Kate Wheeler added a lot of content, as well as the Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Add to the mix my fellow Oriole bloggers and rabid fans and you had a hodge-podge of news, reaction, debate and factoids. It's a great place to spark conversation and I got a lot of ideas for posts from what began as Twitter conversations.
1. Credentialed Bloggers - This season, finally, the Orioles began credentialing independent bloggers for individual games at Camden Yards. This put civilian bloggers like myself side by side with the pros in the press box at Camden Yards.
This one would seem a bit self-serving but let's be honest; I live in Atlanta and I'm really not going to be able to take advantage of this program very often. But with traditional media shrinking, I love that my Baltimore-based colleagues will be able to offer fresh, alternative perspectives on the team, even in the worst of times. Let's face it, once Ravens training camp starts, Oriole coverage tends to suffer. Hopefully, this program will help fill in the gaps. A diversity of voices is a wonderful thing and as a producer and consumer of Oriole coverage, I love it.
And hopefully, bloggers will eventually get locker room access as well.
Friday, December 31, 2010
4 Ways Oriole Coverage Got Better in 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Luke Scott: The Invisible Slugger, Part 2
From Roch Kubatko's post on MASN yesterday titled "Deciding the Top DH for 2010":
The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award will be presented next month, which makes sense, considering that we're down to our final day of this month...
The two leading candidates are Vladimir Guerrero and David Ortiz. One player looked like he was finished and didn't draw a tremendous amount of interest on the free agent market. The other player looked like he was finished once the season began and dealt with all sorts of speculation about being benched or released...
The ballot calls for members of the media to cast votes for first and second place. I just need to figure out the order.
While Roch lays out Scott's numbers, there is no case made for him to be on the ballot. Not once.
Some key stats for the trio overall in 2010:
OPS wRC+ 2B HR Ortiz .899 137 36 32 Guerrero .841 124 27 29 Scott .902 143 29 27
And the trio's DH numbers only"
OPS OPS+ 2B HR Ortiz .908 140 35 31 Guerrero .850 125 25 25 Scott .955 152 19 23
Luke Scott trumps them all.
Now, given the closeness of their rate stats and the fact that Ortiz has more than 150 PAs more than Scott as a DH, you can make the argument that Ortiz should get the edge over Scott. But Guerrero? It's not even close. He certainly belongs on the ballot, if not the winnre of the award.
But Roch Kubatko, a guy who watched Scott all year long, doesn't even make a case for him. Scott's 2010 is going down as one of the most overlooked offensive seasons in Oriole history.
Friday, October 15, 2010
5 Best Things I Saw at the Ballpark - 2010
Even though I don't live in Baltimore these days, I still go to a lot of games every season. I figured it was worth my while to go through my memory banks and coming up with some of the best things I saw during the 2010 baseball season. These aren't necessarily Oriole related or even MLB related but here they are.
Honorable Mention - The One That Got Away
The Norfolk Tides were coming to the Atlanta area (vs. the Gwinnett Braves) in late April and I was only going to be able to get out to one game during the week. I decided to go to Thursday's game since Jake Arrieta would be pitching on April 29th and I hadn't seen him pitch yet. Chris Tillman was going on Wednesday but I had seen him a couple times in 2009.
Well, that one decision cost me the chance to see Tillman throw a no-hitter for the Tides. Minor leagues or not, I have never seen a no-hitter in person and I missed my shot by 24 hours. Adding insult to injury, Arrieta didn't even pitch that well and the Tides lost a lackluster contest to the G-Braves the following evening.
#5 - August 6th, Turner Field, Atlanta, GA: Chipper Jones Last HR?
I headed downtown to watch the Braves take on the Giants for a Friday night game, mostly to see Jason Heyward (who had not been in the starting lineup during my previous trips to Turner Field) and see Tommy Hanson pitch again. Heyward went 0-5 but Hanson pitched well as the Braves lost 3-2 in 11 innings.
But with 2 out in the bottom of the 6th, Chipper Jones hit a homer to left to give the Braves the 2-1 lead. He played three more games in 2010 before being shut down on August 11th. There is no guarantee that Jones will be healthy enough to return in 2011. So that was, perhaps, the last home run of a Hall of Fame career. It is also likely that I saw Chipper's last multi-homer game on June 7th, 2009 when he clubbed two off of Brewer's hurler Manny Parra.
#4 - April 10th, Fluor Field, Greenville, SC: Justin Dalles with a Moonshot
The Delmarva Shorebirds helped me get credentialed for this game (thanks Shorebirds!) and it was to be the professional debut of the Orioles' 2009 top draft pick, SP Matt Hobgood. So I was looking forward to watching Hobgood and catching prospect Micahel Ohlman on a fine spring Saturday evening in South Carolina.
But as with most of these stories, it's the things you are not expecting that end up making the game memorable. Hobgood pitched but was wild and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings pitched. Ohlman was dinged up from the night before and was replaced at catcher by University of South Carolina product Justin Dalles.
Leading off the top of the 7th, Dalles hit a mammoth solo home run to center. It's 420 ft to center with a 30 feet of wall/netting to clear. It cleared all of that with no problem. The centerfielder took two steps back than just stopped and watched it. It was a no doubter. I don't know how far that ball travelled as it sailed out into the inky blackness but it was the longest home run I've ever seen in person. It may have gone 500 ft.
#3 - August 14th, State Mutual Stadium, Rome, GA: Inside the Park Homer
I took the family out to watch the Rome Braves who were hosting the Augusta Green Jackets for a Saturday night game. Well, my family was basically there to see Birdzerk. There weren't any prospects of note playing that evening so I was there purely to watch a minor league baseball game the old fashioned way...with no angles.
In the top of the 8th, there was a man on second with one out. The game was tied 4-4 and Augusta 2B Ryan Cavan strode to the plate to face Rome reliever Kyle Mertins. Cavan proceeded to hit a loopy liner to right center. Rome CF Bobby Rauh sprinted toward the gap and dove for the ball hoping to prevent the man on second from scoring but he missed it and the ball bounced over him and rolled all the way to the wall. Cavan was not particularly fast but was running hard out of the box. He rounded third before the ball hit the cutoff man and scored a full step ahead of the ball for an inside-the-park home run. First one I've seen in person and probably the most exciting play I've seen all year.
Strasmas came to Atlanta on June 28th as the rookie phenom squared off against Tim Hudson in a game that, at least for 6 innings, turned out to be the pitcher's duel that had been anticipated. After 6 innings, Strasburg had struck out 7, walked just one and allowed no runs. Hudson has struck out 5, walked 3 and had also allowed no runs.
The 7th inning told the tale however, as Hudson got through the 7th with a single hit allowed and Strasburg got wild, was victimized by an error on a sure double play ball and his bullpen gave up 4 runs after he exited. It was a fun atmosphere. Strasburg outpitched Hudson but Hudson kept finding ways to stay alive. Strasburg was also making the Braves lineup look silly for most of the evening and the Braves fans HATED him. They booed him at every turn, urges Hudson to throw at him whenever he came to bat and wished (prophetically, perhaps) terrible injury on the rookie. It's a game that I won't soon forget.
#1 - Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD: Josh Bell Goes Deep Twice, O's Spank Rangers
It was my first game at OPACY as a credentialed "journalist" and rookie 3B Josh Bell made it a memorable one. Bell's struggles against lefties were well known and he surprised everyone when he hit not one but two homers against lefty Cliff Lee. Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton got in on the act as they also went deep against the Rangers' ace. The crowd was on their feet in the 9th as Koji Uehara closed out the game. The atmosphere was electric and was a snapshot of the excitement Buck Showalter had brought to Baltimore late int he summer of 2010.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Brian Roberts Self-Flagellates Himself to the Bench
This note from Dan Connolly in The Baltimore Sun as Brian Roberts explains that he received concussion-like symptoms from a hit by...himself.
"I don't know 100 percent sure, but it was Monday night. In frustration [after a strikeout], I whacked myself on the head with my bat in the ninth. I had my helmet on," Roberts said. "It's something I've done a million times, but I still can't tell you for sure if that was it. But that's the only thing that I can point to because that night and the next morning, I just didn't feel good. So it's been going on since then....
"I just have some lack of balance and some headaches, and just stuff that hasn't been a whole lot of fun," Roberts said. "So, unfortunately, I haven't been able to obviously get out there and play, but we're still working on trying to get all the results and figure out what's going on."
(sigh)
Brian, it's bad enough that you are a 32-year-old second baseman who has developed back problems and we may have grossly overpaid for with a 4-year extension. Now you are concussed as well?
And here's a clue: When you hit yourself in the head with a bat "a million times", I'm guessing that's your root cause. You can send the other suspects home. You don't need Jimmy McNulty to solve this mystery.
Add this to the laundry list of issues that Roberts will have to be concerned about during Spring Training. (Back trouble, knee trouble, flu-like symptoms....)
And in case you need the point drilled home, Brian, remember Gus Ferrotte.
A Little 2010 Wrapup
The 2010 is, mercifully, in the books.
Sure, the last couple months have seen Buck's Birds playing as well as anyone in the league. But they had to win like hell just to get to 66 wins. Most of the season was, if you recall, miserable.
But the winning was quite remarkable and if you tuned out early to watch the Ravens, you missed the best baseball of the season. Maybe the last 10 years. In August and September(October), the Orioles posted back to back winnings months for the first time since 2005. It is the first winning August and Septmber since 1996. From August 1st, they finished the season on a 34-24 run, a .586 winnings percentage.
However, if the Orioles want to continue their success in 2011, they still need to improve. Outside of Luke Scott, all the hitters underachieved in 2010. They'll need more consistency (and improvement) from the young pitching. And they'll need to add some free agents to the lineup and the pitching staff to continue to compete in the AL East.
But heading into the offseason, there are a lot of reasons to be hopeful. And Buck Showalter has a lot to do with that. Buck's going to have a lot to say about who will be playing first base next season. And third, a short and left field. You have to like the way he's evaluated the talent so face and you have to expect that he will have a ton of input about who is traded, who they will keep and who they will target in the offseason.
I'll be posting some more wrap up type posts during the rest of this week...and start looking forward to Spring Training.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
They Did It Again!
Is it Showalter? Maybe a bit. Offensive outburst? Yeah, they've scored a few more runs over these last seven games. But mainly, it's been the pitching. Seven straight quality starts for the Oriole hurlers has given the club a shot to win every night.
Are the pitchers coming around? It's still Rick Kranitz after all. Maybe.
It's probably smoke and mirrors but we'll enjoy it while it lasts.
Photo from The Baltimore Sun...
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Showdown of Suckdom: 2010 Orioles vs 1988 Orioles
In the past, oh, 13 seasons of losing Baltimore baseball (and a few in the early 90's too), I have always been able to comfort myself, ever so slightly, with this thought: "Hey, I lived through 1988, I'll live through this too."
Now, I have to come to grips with reality...2010 is the new 1988. I have lived through two seasons that are equally horrific. I never thought I would see an Oriole season as terrible as '88 in my lifetime...but here we are. It may even be worse!
But as a distraction, I decided to see how these teams would stack up against each other, position by position, as the debate over which is the worst Oriole team in history begins.
Catcher: Matt Wieters vs. Mickey Tettleton
Sorry Matty, not thick enough yet (87 OPS+). In the battle of switch-hitting catchers, Fruit Loops provided significant offense (113 OPS+) from behind the plate even if the defense was suspect.
Edge: '88 Orioles
First Base: Ty Wigginton vs Eddie Murray
Wigginton has been surprisingly solid for the O's this year (111 wRC+) but although Murray would never hit 30 homers again after the '87 season, '88 was still a pretty good season for Steady Eddie (140 wRC+).
Edge: '88 Orioles
Second Base: Julio Lugo/Brian Roberts vs Billy Ripken
Ripken has a really poor year at the plate and, from all accounts, was not so great in the field that year either. Even the paltry output from Lugo and a hobbled Roberts are a significant upgrade.
Advantage: '10 Orioles
Shortstop: Cesar Izturis vs. Cal Ripken, Jr.
Ripken was nearing the height of his fielding powers and turned in a nice season at the plate. (132 wRC+) Izuris has been worse with the bat than usual (and that's saying something) and hasn't even been very good in the field.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
Third Base: Miguel Tejada\Josh Bell vs. Rene Gonsalez\Rick Schu
If Tejada had stayed, he would win here because Gonzalez was so wretched. But Tejada is gone and Bell figures to struggle mightily over last two months of the season. Rick Schu, acquired in a mid-season trade from the Tigers, actually hit pretty well and played defense that was superior to Tejada certainly and probably better than Bell.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
Rightfield: Nick Markakis vs. Joe Orsulak
This is closer than you might think but Markakis' bat (122 wRC+) is in another class compared to Orsulak. (113 wRC+).
Advantage: '10 Orioles
Centerfield: Adam Jones vs. Fred Lynn\Brady Anderson
Jones (98 OPS+) has come around with the bat but has had his challenges in the field. Lynn was having a fine year before he was dealt to Detroit (122 OPS+) and young Brady Anderson took over and struggled mightily at the plate. (OPS+ 43) Lynn was solid in the field and Anderson was superior which makes this one awfully close to call. At this point, it's a push, with Jones probably overtaking the pair at year's end.
Advantage: Push
Leftfield: Corey Patterson\Felix Pie vs. Ken Gerhart\Pete Stanicek
Against all odds, Patterson has been at least a league-average hitter this season (98 OPS+, wRC+ 107), has stolen 18 bases at an 86% success rate and, while he has not played his requisite fine defense, I think he has played better than his -4.4 UZR/150 shows. He's been a bright spot.
It would have been interesting to see what Pie could have done if not for his injury early this season. His hot start has been erased by his struggles since his return from the DL as he is not even replacement level this season (-0..6 WAR).
However, the combo of Gerhart and Stanicek posted wRC+ numbers of 75 and 88 respectively during the '88 season and neither were particularly adept with the glove. They abdicate the leftfield competition to Patterson and Pie.
Advantage: '10 Orioles
Designated Hitter: Luke Scott vs. Larry Sheets
Larry Sheets had just come off his career year in 1987, one of the greatest slugging seasons in Oriole history. Alas, that was not to continue as his ISO fell from .247 to .113 and his OPS+ dropped from 143 to a meager 83.
Luke Scott, on the other hand, continues his better-than-solid career with a monster .282/.348/.556 line and is by far the best hitter for Baltimore this season.
Advantage: '10 Orioles
Backup Catcher: Craig Tatum vs. Terry Kennedy
Craig Tatum came better than advertised...even if he finds himself back in Norfolk right now.
Terry Kennedy still had a couple good years left in him...but '88 wasn't one of them as his paltry OPS+ of 61 shows. By all accounts, he did not have a good year defensively either.
Advantage: '10 Orioles
Utility: Garret Atkins/Scott Moore vs. Jim Traber/Keith Hughes
Who would think that any combo involving Jim Traber would win in any comparison? I won't go into the gory details but Atkins was really, really bad, folks.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
SP: Jeremy Guthrie vs. Mike Boddicker
Guthrie has continued to battle this season, turning in league average numbers that are welcome in this season where the rest of the rotation has been a disaster.
Boddicker didn't have a great season for the Orioles in '88 (he saved that for the Red Sox after he was traded) but his peripherals show that his 101 ERA+ is greater than Guthrie's.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
SP: Kevin Millwood vs. Mike Morgan
Even though Morgan imploded as a starter early and was relegated to the bullpen, he is still providing more value than Millwood...and Millwood is headed in the wrong direction.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
SP: Brian Matusz vs. Jeff Ballard
Too depressing to detail, Jeff Ballard had a better "first full season" in the majors than Brian Matusz is having right now. You heard that right, Jeff Ballard > Brian Matusz. (sigh...)
Advantage: '88 Orioles
SP: Brad Bergesen vs. Jose Bautista
23-year-old Bautista was not great but was solid with a ERA+ of 93 over 171.2 innings in 1988. Brad Bergesen has posted an ERA+ of 64. Advantage Bautista.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
SP: Jake Arrieta vs. Jay Tibbs
Arrieta and Tibbs are similar levels of suckdom. Arrieta wins the ERA+ but he has also walked more than he has struck out. Different but equally bad for these guys.
Advantage: Push
RP: Alfredo Simon vs. Tom Niedenfurer
Niedenfurer was a journeyman reliever with a decent career and turned in a very respectable ERA+ of 112 with 18 saves. Simon has been average (ERA+ 103) and has exceeded expectations but the nod goes to Niedenfurer.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
RP: Jason Berken vs. Mark Williamson
Berken has been oustanding in middle relief with an ERA+ of 155. Williamson didn't strike batters out much, was wild and posted an ERA+ of 80.
Advantage: '10 Orioles
RP: Matt Albers vs. Dave Schmidt
Albers has edged his ERA+ up to 99 but the peripherals are pretty terrible. Schmidt's peripherals were better and he manged to put up an ERA+ of 115.
Advantage: '88 Orioles
RP: Mark Hendrickson vs. Mark Thurmond
In this battle of the lefties, Hendrickson has actually pitched better than his ERA this season. The peripherals are good but he has been hit unlucky. Thurmond had bad strikeout and walk rates but had better results overall. Tempted to give this to Hendrickson but in reality, it's another tie.
Advantage: Push
Final Un-scientific Results:
'88 Orioles - 11
'10 Orioles - 6
Push - 3
It's not even close. We are probably looking at the worst Oriole team since the franchise moved to Baltimore. Regardless of record (and the Orioles are on a pace to equal the '88 loss total, I can't make a very compelling argument that this version of the Orioles is better than the 1988 verison.
You're witnessing something historic Oriole fans. You are living through 2010.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles
The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.
5. Brian Roberts' Injury
Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.
Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.
Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.
4. Adam Jones' Glove
Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.
Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.
The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.
3. Nolan Reimold
After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.
I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.
2. Brian Matusz
Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.
Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.
1. Matt Wieters
The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.
Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.
Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.
Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
When Does Rick Kranitz Start Feeling the Heat?
Just a quick thought...
Lots has been written about the failures of Oriole hitting coach Terry Crowley over the past few years.
But why is the Oriole pitching coach seemingly immune from such criticism?
The Oriole pitching staff has an ERA of 5.33, the worst in the American League. This is not new. Baltimore also had the worst AL ERA in 2009 and the second worst ERA in 2008. Kranitz has presided over the pitching staff for all three seasons.
Want to look at the advanced stats? They are and have been dead last in the league in FIP and xFIP over the past three seasons as well.
It's not as if Kranitz has had absolutely nothing to work with. There have been some young arms come to Baltimore that are highly regarded. Thus far, none of them look ready to take the next step. Chris Tillman looked completely lost last night. Ditto with (at times) Brian Matusz.
And over the past three seasons, Kranitz has failed to assemble any semblance of a bullpen. That's what good pitching coaches do...they take marginal pitchers and/or kids from AAA and teach them how to pitch for an inning or two. There are guys in this system with the stuff to be good relievers...but for some reason they never seem to develop.
So...either lots of independent scouts and analysts were dead wrong about a lot of Oriole talent or the organization is doing a poor job of developing that talent for the major league level. I think Kranitz has to take some heat for that.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Draft Edition
It's draft day! Oriole fans have little to look forward to except future prospects so this is a big day...again.
Want to chat about the draft today? Head over to Camden Depot today starting at 11:00 to chat with crawdaddy and stotle. That's where I'll be.
Baltimore Sports and Life compiles a rundown of all the draft reports on the potential Oriole draftees.
Who do I think the Orioles should take in the 1st round? Here's my post on the subject.
Weaver's Tantrum compares the trade value of Wil Ohman to that of George Sherrill from last season.
At Baltimore Sports Report, Matt Sadler is happy. Why? Because it looks like Jake Arrieta is coming to Baltimore.
Oriole Poet says his goodbyes to Dave Trembley.
The Oriole Post provides some great pics from this weekend's games.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
The Gauntlet is Run...How'd the Orioles Do?
The 12-game stretch against the Yanks and the Sox has been pointed to even before the season began. I highlighted this stretch a couple weeks ago saying that it was do or die time for the Orioles. After that brutal schedule, how did Baltimore do?Over the 12-games:
Hitting
AVG OBP SLG OPS K BB HR SB CS
BAL .276 .342 .436 .778 80 39 15 3 5
A .778 OPS would be good for 5th in the AL if it would stretch over the full season. The blame is falling on the offense lately but that's wrong. It's been respectable. If the team had hit like this all season, they would have won more than 7 games.
Pitching
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA SB CS
BAL 5.4 4.0 1.7 4.84 5 3
The pitching was not good. The walks were up, the strikeouts were down and the 4.84 ERA would only be good for 12th in the AL if they had pitched that way all season. Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez are the main culprits.
Given how everything went, the team was lucky to come away with a 5-7 record. After the sweep of the Red Sox, it was a little disappointing not to win one from the Yanks to go .500 for the trip but winning 5 was respectable. It wasn't pretty but given how they gutted out the wins, I'd have to call this a successful run.
The rest of the schedule for May is a cakewalk compared how the season has looked up to this point. The Twins (sans Joe Mauer), Royals, Indians, Mariners, Rangers, Nats, A's and Blue Jays make up the the opponents until June. Time for the Orioles to start winning. Now.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Running the Gauntlet: Testing the Oriole Mettle Over 12 Brutal Games
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
5 Reasons Why Watching the Orioles in 2010 Will Be Better Than 2009
Disaster. Disaster seemed to strike at every turn last season and the team was so thin that every injury, failure or error was exacerbated by the fact that holes could not be plugged when guys got hurt or washed out. I am thinking that this is the main reason that 2010 will be better than 2009; the depth. It's not an incredibly deep organization yet but it's getting better.
There's the general reason, here are the specifics.
1. The Rotation
Last season's Opening Day rotation consisted of Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Alfredo Simon, Adam Eaton, Koji Uehara and then Rich Hill as a backup. Outside of Guthrie, those starters combined for only 46 starts and an ERA north of 6.00. This forced Jason Berken, David Hernandez and Brian Matusz into the rotation before they were ready with mixed results.
This season, the rotation to start the season is Guthrie, Kevin Millwood, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and David Hernandez. Guthrie and Millwood aren't All-Stars but are good bets to be league average pitchers and start 28+ games. Bergesen and Hernandez are battle-tested sophomores and, as a combo, are also good bets to produce league average ERA. Brian Matusz is a candidate for AL Rookie of the Year.
There are clearly flaws with the rotation but it doesn't look like it will be an unmitigated disaster like 2009.
2. The Outfield
Going into 2009, the Oriole outfield was a big strength and loaded with potential Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Luke Scott. In 2010, it's even better.
Nick Markakis has a down year by his standards but looks to rebound nicely as the Orioles want him to hit second in the lineup this year, a position that plays to his strengths at the plate. Adam Jones broke out offensively in 2009 and is, by definition, a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder. Pie, after a shaky start in the field and at the plate, looks to be coming into his own as he starts the season in left. Nolan Reimold was an afterthought in 2009 but barring a late season injury probably would have been ROY. And there's still Scott who can still play left and has led the team in slugging for the past two seasons.
It is the deepest area on the team and it's depth that even the Yankees can't boast.
3. Matt Wieters
Bold prediction: Matt Wieters is ready to take the title of "Best Catcher in the AL Not Named Mauer".
But I am not alone. ESPN's Keith Law has picked him as a breakout candidate and expects him to hit well over .300 with 20-25 homeruns. Can't wait to see what he does this year.
4. The Bench
I wasn't crazy about the signing of Garrett Atkins but if it pushes Ty Wigginton to the bench with Julio Lugo, Craig Tatum and whoever the 5th outfielder is that day, that's a pretty good bench.
OK, Tatum is more of a catch and throw guy. But Lugo, Wigginton and Reimold/Pie/Scott? That's not bad at all. Decent bats, some decent speed...no more having to watch the like of Robert Andino or Ryan Freel taking weak hacks.
5. Norfolk
Norfolk helped provide the cavalry last season and looks poised to do so again. Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Kam Mickolio, Jim Miller Denis Sarfate, Josh Perrault, Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell and Justin Turner are all (possibly) ready to step in in case of injury or ineffectiveness on the big club. And even Troy Patton, Scott Moore, Ryne Hughes or Lou Montanez may be able to help in 2010.
The bottom line is, although the minors graduated a lot of talent to Baltimore last season, there is still more (of varying degrees) to come. And that's a good thing.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Final WAR Spreadsheet for Orioles 2010
And here they are. They reflect the recent roster changes and the possible injury situations:
Again, all of these projections are from CHONE (typically the most pessimistic of the projection systems) except for Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters who were bumped up a bit.
That's 80.6 wins. With some health and some good luck, this could be a winning club. I stand by my earlier assessment.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
PECOTA Goes to WAR
I'm still screwing around with the WAR spreadsheet and various projections. With Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections for players are out so I wondered what would happen if I loaded the PECOTA projections into my WAR spreadsheet and see what it spits out.
So I used the OBP and SLG from PECOTA and converted the pitching stats to FIP to make it work. The PECOTA-WAR spreadsheet can be found here if you're interested but generally PECOTA likes our hitters more than CHONE but likes our pitchers less.
And still...it comes out to 86 wins.
Granted, I am mixing projections systems and PECOTA is only projecting the Orioles to win 79 games (probably adjusting for the division) but it goes to show you that the talent on the Orioles is higher than it's been in years and that, with a little luck, Baltimore could be a winner in 2010.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
PECOTA Standings Updated...Again
It's been five days since the last PECOTA revision over at Baseball Prospectus so I am guessing all the kinks are worked out. Here's the projected AL East standings:
The Orioles lose a win since the last projection but 79-83 would still make for an entertaining season. I still can't see three teams finishing with 90+ wins in the division though.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Base Hits: Surprise Exit for Melvin (?), Payroll, Projections and Irrational Exuberance
Melvin Mora has signed with the Colorado Rockies.
What's with all the "I guess Melvin Mora is really gone" stories? Wasn't it obvious when they declined his option and gave no hint whatsoever that there was still a place for him in Baltimore? Can you imagine his grousing at having to share time with Garrett Atkins or Miguel Tejada? I don't understand why people think this marks the moment that Mora is "officially" no longer an Oriole. That day has long passed.
While we're talking about Melmo, Buster Olney uses Mora's splits to demonstrate the wrong way to use stats for analysis.
Mora had a .260 batting average in 2009, but he really enjoyed the friendly confines of Camden Yards, where he hit .314 compared to .209 on the road. The .105 difference in his home versus road batting average was tied for the second-largest among players with at least 200 at-bats each at home and on the road.
Forget for a minute that batting average is a horrible stat to use for splits over one season and forget that for his Oriole career that Mora has fairly even splits in all his offensive categories, this stat may have been relevant if he was going to a neutral or pitcher's park. He's not. He's going to a field that is even more hitter friendly than OPACY. And he's going to a weaker league. If anything, Mora will enjoy a nice rebound based on this split, not a regression because he is leaving Camden Yards.
*****
Irrational exuberance alert! Another glowing story on the rebuilding O's from the national media, this time from Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated. I wanted to highlight one point about Baltimore's free agent signings during the MacPhail era:
The idea here is to bring aboard players who will contribute immediately at the major league level, but who won't financially hamstring the club in the long term (should their production decline), and who won't block cheaper, and potentially better, alternatives who are nearly ready in the minors.
It's a point that needs more highlighting. This is precisely what The Warehouse is using free agency for in the short term and avoiding questionable multi-year deals. And it will probably work in both the short and the long term.
*****
duck at Camden Chat does his best to unravel the MLB revenue sharing model and finds the Orioles stuck in the middle.
*****
With the addition of Mark Hendrickson and Miguel Tejada, here is my estimated Opening Day payroll for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles. I am assuming that Ty Wigginton is traded away and that Jeremy Guthrie wins arbitration.
| Roberts, Brian | $10,000,000 |
| Millwood, Kevin | $9,000,000 |
| Markakis, Nick | $7,100,000 |
| Tejada, Miguel | $6,000,000 |
| Gonzalez, Mike | $6,000,000 |
| Uehara, Koji | $5,000,000 |
| Atkins, Garrett | $4,500,000 |
| Scott, Luke | $4,050,000 |
| Guthrie, Jeremy | $3,625,000 |
| Izturis, Cesar | $2,600,000 |
| Meredith, Cla | $1,250,000 |
| Herdrickson, Mark | $1,200,000 |
| Mora, Melvin, | $1,000,000 |
| Moeller, Chad, | $900,000 |
| Matusz, Brian | $868,000 |
| Albers, Matt | $680,000 |
| Jones, Adam | $500,000 |
| Wieters, Matt | $500,000 |
| Pie, Felix | $450,000 |
| Mickolio, Kam | $450,000 |
| Bergesen, Brad | $450,000 |
| Tillman, Chris | $450,000 |
| Aubrey, Michael | $450,000 |
| Reimold, Nolan | $450,000 |
| Andino, Robert | $450,000 |
| Johnson, Jim | $450,000 |
| TOTAL | $68,373,000 |
Still coming in under $70 mil. It's not a bad team for the price which will be small comfort if they lose 95+ games again.
*****
Baseball Prospectus has had to re-run their PECOTA projections due to a calculation error. The Orioles are now projected for...80 wins. My WAR spreadsheet has them pegged for 80.5 wins.
Ha! Not overly optimistic after all! Who's crazy now?
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Base Hits: Undervalued Pitchers, The Big Picture and News About Third Basemen
I wanted to highlight this article on FanGraphs.com if for no other reason that I also feel that Brad Bergesen is/was vastly undervalued and that Bryan Smith laid out his value far better than I ever have. I'm looking forward to the rest of his series on slider/sinkerball pitchers.
*****
Brandon Oland writes that he is skeptical (at best) about the Orioles' rebuilding process in the snarkiest tone he can muster.
But allow me to state that Brandon has no idea what he is talking about.
Example:
The players (Andy MacPhail) brought in are not improvements over the players he traded away last year.
Garrett Atkins is not half the slugger Aubrey Huff is.
Oh, he's definitely half the slugger. He'd only have to slug .200 to be half the slugger that Huff is today.
Mike Gonzalez is not an improvement over George Sherrill.
Oh, yes he is. Just wait.
Kevin Millwood is likely to be the opening day starting pitcher, which means the Orioles will be turning to a right-hander the pitching-starved Texas Rangers were eager to dump.
Well, this is kind of true but the Rangers were willing to part with Millwood because they are cash starved way more than they are pitching starved.
What Brandon fails to pick up on here is the function of these players. Atkins is a place-holder until Brandon Snyder and/or Josh Bell arrive from Norfolk. Sherrill needed to be replaced (you can argue if a free agent closer was the way to go...) because he was traded away for the aforementioned Bell. Millwood is here for one season to buy time for Jake Arrieta and Zack Britton and perhaps provide some steadiness to a rotation that will feature young hurlers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen.
These players were not signed to compete with the Yankees in 2010; they are here to warm seats for the kids who may be able to contend.
Now, I wouldn't expect every casual fan to understand this or know Baltimore's farm system. But then there's this statement:
I’m sure Fan Fest autograph seekers will be eager to meet Orioles stars Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.
But aside from them, what’s left to be excited about? Not much.
Except for Matt Wieters. And Nolan Reimold. Or Matusz. Or Tillman. Or Bergesen or Luke Scott.
Get out to the Yard, Brandon. There's baseball stuff happening out there.
*****
As if in response to Brandon Oland himself, MASN's Steve Melewski reminds panicky fans to keep the big picture in mind. Then he paints it for them. Well done!
*****
And the Orioles' rebuilding is being noticed. The Boston Herald took an in-depth look at MacPhail's handiwork and the prospect of a bright future at Camden Yards.
Matusz will be joined by right-hander Brad Bergesen, who was having an outstanding rookie year before being felled by a line drive off the shin, as well as righty Chris Tillman. Top prospect Jake Arrieta, another righty, waits in the wings.
“They’re coming,” one rival team executive said. “And they’re legit.”...
Add it all together, and the Orioles may be competitive a lot sooner than people think.
*****
Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune says that the Orioles are talking to free agent 3B Joe Crede and that if they sign hime, it could mean that Ty Wigginton or Garrett Atkins could be moved if Crede joins the team.
Given that Josh Bell is pretty close to the majors, I like the idea of taking a chance on Crede. His defense is stellar and if he's healthy, he helps the team a lot. I can't imagine the O's would move Atkins (although stranger things have happened) so I would think that Wigginton would be shipped off to the Nationall League for some relief pitching depth.
*****
Dempsey's Army wishes Brooks Robinson a speedy recovery from his abdominal surgery. Get well, Brooks!
*****
Kudos to Miguel Tejada for helping with the relief efforts in Haiti. Whatever you have to say about Miggy's Baltimore stay, you have to admire a guy putting something on the line to help with the tragic devastation in that country.
*****
OK Le Batard, I get the point of your fictional steroid apology. But did you have to use Cal Ripken in it? Don't Baltimore fans suffer enough? Next time, use Tony Gwynn.
*****
I should mention the Oriole FanFest coming up this weekend:
Over 60 current, future and former Orioles players and coaches will participate in the team's 2010 FanFest event at the Baltimore Convention Center next Saturday, January 23. Presented by the Sarasota Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2010 FanFest will feature autograph sessions and question and answer forums as part of a day-long celebration of baseball that will also include clinics, exhibits and interactive games. The event will be held from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., with early entry for Orioles Season Plan Holders to begin at 10:00 a.m.
Current and future players scheduled to attend include MATT ALBERS, ROBERT ANDINO, GARRETT ATKINS, MICHAEL AUBREY, JOSH BELL, BRAD BERGESEN, JASON BERKEN, ALBERTO CASTILLO, BRANDON ERBE, MICHAEL GONZALEZ, JEREMY GUTHRIE, DAVID HERNANDEZ, RHYNE HUGHES, JIM JOHNSON, ADAM JONES, NICK MARKAKIS, BRIAN MATUSZ, CLA MEREDITH, KAM MICKOLIO, KEVIN MILLWOOD, LOU MONTANEZ, TROY PATTON, FELIX PIE, NOLAN REIMOLD, BRIAN ROBERTS, DENNIS SARFATE, LUKE SCOTT, BRANDON SNYDER, CHORYE SPOONE, CRAIG TATUM, CHRIS TILLMAN, JUSTIN TURNER, MATT WIETERS and TY WIGGINTON.
Orioles Manager DAVE TREMBLEY and 2010 coaches TERRY CROWLEY, JEFF DATZ, ALAN DUNN, RICK KRANITZ, JUAN SAMUEL and JOHN SHELBY will also participate.
Former Orioles PAUL BLAIR, MIKE BORDICK, DON BUFORD, AL BUMBRY, MIKE CUELLAR, RICK DEMPSEY, KEN DIXON, JOE DURHAM, TODD FROHWIRTH, DICK HALL, RON HANSEN, CHRIS HOILES, BILL HUNTER, SCOTT McGREGOR, JOHN MILLER, TIM NORDBROOK, JOE ORSULAK, JIM PALMER, BOOG POWELL, GARY ROENICKE, LARRY SHEETS, NATE SNELL, BJ SURHOFF and FRED VALENTINE and former coach JIMMY WILLIAMS are all expected to attend.
Rick Dempsey and Larry Sheets in the same room? I might faint if I was there...
Alas, I will be unable to make it living in Atlanta and all. Anyway, I've already been to one FanFest this offseason.
Go out and support the team, it sounds like fun. Say hi to Brandon Oland for me.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Revising my Initial WAR Projections for 2010
I'm a one trick pony these days but it's the slowest part of the offseason...so another WAR post as we try to peer into the murky future...
My initial WAR projections projected the Orioles to possess a Win Talent of 83. Others, whose opinion I respect, thought that my projections were too optimistic given the pitching staff Baltimore would field. (Keep in mind, I was quite pessimistic last season compared to most...)
I then decided to scale back my projections a bit. I decided to use CHONE projections which tend to be less optimistic than Bill James in general and revisit the pitching projections with a more critical eye.
Hitters
I did CHONE projections straight down the line except for playing time. I adjusted Adam Jones' playing time down (450 PA) because he has yet to play a full season and I wanted to be reasonable about the possibility of injury. Before changing my pitching and with only two minor tweaks to the batters, this still left my Win Talent at 81.6.
The tweaks: Nick Markakis is NOT a sub-.850 OPS player. Sorry, I don't buy it. So I nudged his numbers up to an .850 OPS. Also, I do not believe Matt Wieters is a sub-.800 OPS hitter in 2010. I adjusted his offensive numbers up to an equivalent of .825 OPS. (BTW, ZiPS predicted an .827 OPS for Wieters before the 2009 season, comparing him to Johnny Bench. This season, ZiPS has him at at .773 OPS. What changed? 385 PAs in the majors? I think we have to take projections on rookies and young players in general with a grain of salt...)
Here is the lineup with rough batting lines:
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
C
Wieters 550 .289 .350 .475 .825
Moeller 145 .240 .300 .330 .630
1B
Wigginton 550 .269 .323 .446 .769
Atkins 145 .257 .326 .410 .736
2B
Roberts 645 .275 .355 .430 .785
Andino 50 .244 .299 .365 .664
SS
Izturis 600 .261 .306 .342 .648
Andino 95 .244 .299 .365 .664
3B
Atkins 500 .257 .326 .410 .736
Wigginton 50 .269 .323 .446 .769
Bell 145 .231 .299 .362 .661
LF
Reimold 500 .275 .355 .477 .832
Pie 150 .267 .327 .421 .748
Scott 45 .256 .335 .469 .804
CF
Jones 450 .283 .338 .472 .810
Pie 245 .267 .327 .421 .748
RF
Markakis 695 .304 .369 .481 .850
DH
Reimold 245 .275 .355 .477 .832
Scott 400 .256 .335 .469 .804
Wigginton 50 .269 .323 .446 .769
The Pitching
I went back over my pitching with a fine toothed comb looking for holes. Here's what I came up with for the rotation, all ERA's are in terms of FIP.
I have Jeremy Guthrie penciled in for 190 innings, fewer than he had last season. Guthrie has pitched more innings each season in the majors, even when he has struggled. (He pitched 200 innings in '09.) I can't imagine he will be as bad as he was last year, nor quite as good as his first two seasons. I bumped his FIP up to 4.80 but left everything else alone.
My Kevin Millwood projection makes sense. I only have him down for 165 innings figuring he will break down a bit during the season. 4.80 FIP was what he had last season and is the highest he has had for a full season. It's reasonable to think that projection is sound.
Matusz doesn't seem to be the kind to get hurt...just not that kind of pitcher. Still, I only have him down for 170 innings...guess I could bump that to 165 and bump his 4.00 FIP up a quarter run, well above fan projections, Bill James and his performance last year. The guy is "pitcher" in the truest sense of the word...I see him improving, not backsliding.
Chris Tillman struck me as the likeliest candidate for injury and/or struggles. Not sure exactly why I feel that why but he looks like he overthrows at times and he will be just 22 next season. I knocked down his innings and bumped up the FIP.
Brad Bergesen is a poor man's Rick Porcello. He may not be as good as last year but I don't think he's going to go the Josh Towers route either. He's a groundball machine and he walks virtually nobody. I bumped the FIP up a bit but I think he pitches his fair share of innings at the back of the rotation.
That's a pretty solid rotation, a bunch of guys who, barring injury, have the opportunity to stay in the rotation all season despite any struggles they may have. All will pitch 140+ innings with guys like Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, Jason Berken and David Hernandez ready to take the mound in case of injury. No one should get rushed up from Norfolk or Bowie this season.
The addition of Mike Gonzalez makes the core of the Oriole bullpen much better. We could debate the merits of Baltimore paying a premium for a "closer" this offseason but adding Gonzalez to Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara and Kam Mickolio makes a formidable core. Add Cla Meredith, Mark Hendrickson, David Hernandez and Matt Albers and you have a solid, if not great relief corp. And I think that the O's have some intriguing arms in Norfolk this season like Jim Miller, Alberto Castillo, Armando Gabino and Wilfrido Perez.
Projections for primary rotation and relief:
IP ERA
Guthrie 190 4.80
Millwood 165 4.80
Tillman 140 5.50
Matusz 165 4.25
Bergesen 170 4.40
Gonzalez 65 3.50
Johnson 70 4.20
Uehara 50 3.85
Mickolio 50 4.50
Hendrickson 70 4.75
Meredith 45 4.22
Hernandez 60 5.25
Now, take a look back at all those projections. What's your impression? Optimistic? Unrealistic? Pie in the sky?
I think not. I think they're fairly pessimistic if anything. And I still get...80 wins.
Obviously, injury is always a concern. The Orioles are not very deep and a rash of serious injuries lands Baltimore back in the basement chasing 100 losses again. But if the young core holds and improves even modestly, this team will at least flirt with .500 this season.
Of course, we'll adjust this as the Orioles get closer to Opening Day and the roster comes into focus.
My updated 2010 WAR Spreadsheet is here.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Does WAR Reveal a Chance of a Winning 2010 for Baltimore?
Team projections at this time of the year are a fool's game. But I started to try anyway.
Using Sky Kalkman's WAR Spreadsheet, I plugged in the holes based on the current roster and a few assumptions here and there (like the return of Mark Hendrickson or someone like him). Then I used CHONE and Bill James projections (mostly Bill James since they are already in wOBA at FanGraphs.com) and let the spreadsheet run the numbers.
Projection: 83 wins
What? I looked over my numbers again. I only had Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Brad Bergesen outperforming projections by any significant amount and even that was not by much. All other players either got their Bill James projection or were lowered to some degree. And I still get 83 wins. Even with Garrett Atkins and Ty Wigginton manning the corners all year.
Keep in mind that going into Spring Training 2009, my spreadsheet had 77 wins and Baltimore almost lost 100. But the pitching just plain exploded. Barring a significant rash of injuries, this staff won't be as bad as '09, right?
The link to my spreadsheet is here. Any feedback is appreciated. But I got a little unexpected optimism for Christmas.
edit: I gave Nolan Reimold 745 ABs vs. 695 between LF and DH. I adjusted that but it still falls in the 83 win range.
