And here they are. They reflect the recent roster changes and the possible injury situations:
Again, all of these projections are from CHONE (typically the most pessimistic of the projection systems) except for Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters who were bumped up a bit.
That's 80.6 wins. With some health and some good luck, this could be a winning club. I stand by my earlier assessment.
5 comments:
Pretty close to what I got. Just want to point out that you might not want to use Berken's ERA projection straight, since it's for him as a starter and he should be better out of the pen.
Man, how excited will people be if the team finishes over .500? Still in 4th place, but that would be awesome.
Well, this is the Berken thing...I don't expect Berken to stick and, like any season, there will be other pitchers coming in and out of the bullpen this season. So I kept Berken's ERA to allow for injuries and/or lesser pitchers shuttling between Norfolk and Baltimore. Since there was limited space, Berken becomes a composite for the rest of the members of the pen.
But with a couple of breaks (good for the O's, maybe some bad ones for other AL East teams) I do believe the team could win.
80 wins would be great. So you have Jones at 450 PA, you think he's going to be out with an injury? I guess you have to assume he'll get injured just because of his history.
This even seems like a conservative projection to me (that's how I'd do it as well). I really think some of the hitters could out perform expectations.
If Jones does stay healthy and play to his potential, how much could his WAR go up to realistically?
RE:Jones Yeah, it would be nice to pencil him in for 600 ABs but it's tough to do until he stays healthy all season. I went with the more conservative CHONE projections since I had already picked Wieters and Markakis to exceed projections so I left Jones there.
If Jones plays all season (gets 600 PAs)and takes another step forward offensively, (roughly a .300/.340/.475 line with about 24 homers) he would be worth about 3.7 WAR vs. 2.7 WAR in my projection.
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