Final WAR Spreadsheet for Orioles 2010

 And here they are. They reflect the recent roster changes and the possible injury situations:

Again, all of these projections are from CHONE (typically the most pessimistic of the projection systems) except for Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters who were bumped up a bit.

That's 80.6 wins. With some health and some good luck, this could be a winning club. I stand by my earlier assessment.

PECOTA Goes to WAR

I'm still screwing around with the WAR spreadsheet and various projections. With Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections for players are out so I wondered what would happen if I loaded the PECOTA projections into my WAR spreadsheet and see what it spits out.

So I used the OBP and SLG from PECOTA and converted the pitching stats to FIP to make it work. The PECOTA-WAR spreadsheet can be found here if you're interested but generally PECOTA likes our hitters more than CHONE but likes our pitchers less.

And still...it comes out to 86 wins.

Granted, I am mixing projections systems and PECOTA is only projecting the Orioles to win 79 games (probably adjusting for the division) but it goes to show you that the talent on the Orioles is higher than it's been in years and that, with a little luck, Baltimore could be a winner in 2010.