Individual Performances Leading Team Effort on Charge to the Top

On July 18th, the Orioles were 2.5 games out of the AL Wild Card spot and 10 full games back on the Yankees for the AL East title. Today, they started the day in possession one of the wild card spots and a single game behind the Yankees for the division lead going 29-15 over that stretch.

While this has been an improbable team effort, there are some great individual efforts that have sparked this run. Here are the Orioles who helped lead that furious charge. Not surprisingly, most of these guys are pitchers.

Nick Markakis

          AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B  3B  HR  
Markakis .331  .390  .489  .879    9   2   5

Nick has been on fire since his return from the DL and is flourishing in his new role as leadoff hitter. He is now the best hitter in the lineup.


Mark Reynolds

          AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B  3B  HR  
Reynolds .252  .366  .489  .855    9   0   8

Reynolds has streaked his way to offensive relevance over the past 6 weeks while leading the team in walks, ranks second on the team in ISO and since moving to first base has provided adequate defense. Some of the fans who were clamoring for a playoff spot were also the same ones who were crapping all over Reynolds this season which I always found strange since this team was going to need every bullet in the arsenal to make a run at even a wild card berth. Reynolds has proved to be valuable in that endevour.


Wei-Yin Chen

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Chen     54.2   51    16     7   3.79

In the absence of Jason Hammel, Chen provided some stability and a center to the revolving door of starters entering and exiting the rotation. Not spectacular but always solid.


Chris Tillman

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Tillman  52.0   41    17     8   3.81

Miguel Gonzalez

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Gonzalez 49.0   37    14     8   3.67

Zach Britton

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Britton  41.0   37    15     5   4.39

I lump these three guys together because with the rotation is ruins, these three came in on the Norfolk shuttle to throw some quality innings and settle things down. There were some rough spots for sure but the minor league journeyman, the former prospect whose star had faded and the top prospect who was working his way back from injuries have teamed up to give the pitching staff a huge boost.


Steve Johnson

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Johnson  18.0   37    14     8   3.67

Steve Johnson has come up from AAA to provide some spot starts and long relief for the team. With Tillman's health in question, he will be taking on a larger role in September. Remember when we lost Johnson in the Rule 5 draft a couple of years ago? Thank God we got him back.


Luis Ayala

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Ayala    19.1   11     4     1   2.79

And why wouldn't we see a bunch of guys from bullpen on this list? Ayala is not spectacular and give up his fair share of hits but he is working enough magic to strand enough runners to be very effective.


Pedro Strop

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Strop    18.0   18     8     0   2.50

The big fastball and impressive ground ball rate offset the occasional wildness as Strop continues his breakout season.


Darren O'Day

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
O'Day    17.2   18     6     0   0.51

Troy Patton

           IP    K    BB    HR    ERA
Patton   11.0   11     2     0   0.00

The unsung heroes of the 'pen whose praises I keep trying to sing. Even though he is now on the DL, look at what Patton had done before he went down. And O'Day has been dominant. I want Patton back and soon.

Chris Tillman is Getting A Bad Rap

"Where do I need to put that horseshoe again?"

All across the media, everyone is talking about what happened to Chris Tillman yesterday. Evidently, he was thrashed, rocked and hammered by the Kansas City lineup yesterday.

But while Tillman's boxscore was plenty ugly, I wonder if the authors of those headlines actually watched the game.

I did. Twice. And while Tillman was not as sharp as he could have been, most of the runs he gave up were due to poor defense and bad luck.

The first three hits Tillman gave up were groundballs that weren't even that well hit. At least two of those balls should have been outs and probably all three. Then there was a misplayed popup but Mark Reynolds and Robert Andino.

The middle infield defense was not good. After giving Andino kudos for his renewed focus in the field, he looked absolutely terrible yesterday.

Anyway, my point is, Tillman pitched well enough to get 6 or 7 outs in the that first inning. There was only one well struck ball in the first.

In the second, Alcides Escobar hit a solid double to left. But he was driven in by Chris Getz who hit a fluky flare down the leftfield line that spun away into foul territory. By my count, there were only two well struck balls hit in the first three innings. Those 5 runs should have been just 1. Or maybe none at all. That deep hole was dug by the entire team, not just Tillman.

Tillman did get hit pretty bad in the 4th while walking the leadoff man, but he was at 79 pitches when he left and should have been into the 5th by then. It was not a stellar outing for Tillman but it really wasn't a bad one. He struck out 3, only walked 1, got a couple popouts and got the opposing batter to hit grounders 47% of the time. But the team has to catch the ball.

Fortunately, Buck Showalter and pitching coach Mark Connor seem to understand that.

Sure, Tillman needs to develop the toughness to pitch through innings where your defense (and luck) lets you down. He definitely got rattled (the balk showed that) and he needs to learn from the situation and improve his mental approach.

Meanwhile, there is already talk of a possible replacement for him in the rotation. Tillman does have a 7.16 ERA but according to FanGraphs.com, Tillman has a 3.50 FIP (the best on the team) and a 4.42 xFIP which is pretty respectable.

It doesn't show in the boxscore but Tillman is making improvements. Now the defense needs to help him out.

John Sickels on Chris Tillman

An pretty thorough look back at the minor league career and prospect status of Chris Tillman. Sickels explores his velocity drop, the control issues, his cutter and comparable pitchers at the beginning of their careers. In conclusion:

Clearly he has nothing left to learn at Norfolk, and his statistics there certainly imply that he should be successful in the majors. But it hasn't happened yet. In 27 major league starts, he's 4-12, 5.69, with an 86/61 K/BB in 138 innings, 149 hits allowed, 77 ERA+, 5.68 FIP, 4.95 xFIP, and a WAR of 0.1...

Overall, as long as he's healthy, I think there's still a good chance that Tillman can live up to his potential, perhaps as soon as this year. He's only 23. If he had gone to Cal State Fullerton instead of signing with the Mariners in 2006, he would have been drafted in 2009, very likely as a first-round pick, and this would just be his second full pro season. He deserves some slack.

It's easy to forget the guy is just 23. I don't know what the future holds for Tillman but I hope he gets the chance to try to work it out in Baltimore this season, all season, lumps and all.

Taking Another Look at the Tillman Debacle

So I went back and watched Tillman's brief performance in the Bronx last night...and I have to say that while it was not good, it was not as bad as it looked initially.

And I'm sure I will be labelled a Tillman apologist but here it goes.

The first three Yankee batters reached via ground ball hits. Like Scott Erickson used to say, I can make them hit it on the ground but I don't know where it's going to go. If someone makes a play on one of those balls, maybe the inning goes differently. Or maybe the A-Rod homer is a 2-run job instead of a 3-run shot.

Secondly, there were two fly balls to left that I think Felix Pie would have had a very good shot at catching. They weren't easy plays but they were impossible for Scott who gets good jumps but does not have Pie's speed. And then there was Jeter's lucky infield hit in the second inning.

Don't get me wrong. It was not a good outing and he had some hard hit balls. And even if things broke his way, I'm not sure he pitches into the 5th inning last night.

But he gave up some hits on weakly hit balls, grounders and nubs. It was not as bad as the box score looks.

Even after last night, Tillman's FIP and xFIP are 4.87 and 4.89 respectively. He's not giving up a bunch of homers and he's stopped walking people at ridiculous rates. He has not been good but he has been pretty unlucky too.

Again, for the third time...it was NOT a good performance last night. But it wasn't the unmitigated disaster it looked to be at first blush. And his season so far has been OK regardless of what his ERA reads right now.

Quick Thoughts on Last Night's Game

I have some reactions to last night's game...or some reactions to reactions to last night's game.

Christ Tillman....he was bad. I completely agree. But why would you want to send the guy back to AAA. I'll post his AAA numbers...again.

Lev    W  L W-L%  ERA  G CG SHO    IP   H HR BB  SO  WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
AAA   19 13 .594 3.06 39  2   2 218.0 205 15 56 193 1.197  0.6  2.3  8.0  3.45

Whatever he does in AAA works for him. Call him a AAAA pitcher but there's no reason for him to go down. He should live or die right here in Baltimore.

That future in Baltimore may lay in the bullpen. And that's just fine with me. He needs to face major league hitter and maybe the pen is the way to go.

But until Brian Matusz comes back, you've got to keep trotting him out there every fifth day. I just got done watching the majority of the Norfolk Tides rotation and it's not pretty.

2011 ERA
Ryan Drese         8.18
Mark Hendrickson  12.50
Michael Ballard    6.00
Rick VandenHurk    6.00

The only starter who looked decent was Troy Patton...and he's on the DL now.

There are no better options. There is no help arriving. Tillman should remain in the rotation until Matusz returns and should pitch somewhere for Baltimore all this season. There are no better options.

About Vlad Guerrero...I have seen some grumbling about Vlad's free swinging ways amongst fans and from the press.

The vast majority of the fans and all of the mainstream media were really enthusiastic about his signing. But the guy has been a free swinger at the plate for 15 seasons and he has built himself a Hall of Fame resume with that approach.

And now you expect him to change it?

Vlad is not going to stop swinging. Game situations don't matter to him. His approach is his approach and he's not suddenly going to become more patient at age 36. The very notion is hilarious.

Of course things would be better if he were more patient. His career would have been more brilliant than it already was if he was more patient. But he's not. He's Vladimir Guerrero. He's what he has always been.

I remember a few years back when Frank Thomas was playing for the Blue Jays and injuries and such forced the manager to move Thomas into the cleanup spot in the lineup. And then Thomas was criticized for not being more aggressive at the plate to "drive in runs" and continuing to take walks. Forget the fact that that is what Frank Thomas was and always was...sometimes people illogically expect different results from the same guy.

I was not in favor of the Guerrero signing but I'll be damned if I'm going to criticize his approach at the plate. It's like being critical of a duck for having webbed feet. He is what he is.

And everybody wanted him. Now you have him.

Finally, quit quoting me stats about how the Orioles are hitting with runners in scoring position. It's a completely meaningless stat. So stop it or I'll have to explain why it's stupid.

OK, resume party...

Chris Tillman Takes a Step

The Orioles went to 2-0 last night as they continued to get amazing performances from all areas. Jeremy Guthrie threw 8 shutouts innings Friday night. Brian Roberts tripling Friday and hitting a three-run homer last night. The great defensive plays by Felix Pie, Matt Wieters and, of course Nick Markakis.

And last night, Chris Tillman, a guy whose spot in the rotation was in jeopardy less than a week ago, stymied the opposition for 6 innings last night.

Chris Tillman really needed to make the most of his opportunities early in the year. Last night, he took a step in the right direction as he threw 6 no-hit innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. How did he do that? Plain and simple, he threw more strikes. At least relatively more.

PitchFX data generated for the great tool on BrooksBaseball.net.

Tillman stayed in or around the strike zone pretty well last night. He threw 57.4% of his pitches for strikes. He only exceeded that percentage three times all last season when he threw 6 or more innings. Not surprisingly, his line looked very good for two of those games and he got the win.

Tillman's stuff plays in the zone. He froze hitters, got swinging strikes and had the lineup off balance all night. There were only two well-struck balls all night by my count.

Tillman seems to have gained a bit more control by taking a little off his pitches.

Tillman got the best results when he kept his fastball between 88-92 MPH. Sure, he can dial it up an hit 93-94. But the 90 MPH fast ball paired with that curve...well, when he's throwing them for strikes it's a pretty potent combination.

Tillman has not has control issues in AAA. I believe he is still gaining confidence that his stuff is good enough to get major league hitters out and as his confidence grows, he will attack the zone more and get more results like last night.

And yeah, he walked three guys and he needed 101 pitches to get through 6 innings. It was not a wholly masterful performance. But my advocacy for Tillman in the rotation has not been that he is a finished product but that he needs to improve on his game in the majors. And last night, he took a big step. Now he needs to build on it against the Tigers in Baltimore.

The Oriole Rotation Suddenly in Limbo

Brian Matusz was hit by a line drive in today's simulated game and his status for Saturday's start is in jeopardy.

Brad Bergesen was struck in a similar fashion last week, albeit worse, by all reports.

That leaves Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton as the only completely healthy starters just three days from Opening Day.

Justin Duchscherer is not due back until April 21st at the earliest. The situations for Matusz and Bergesen remain more cloudy. It is not known if either will be ready for their respective starts on Saturday and Sunday.

The fates seem to be conspiring to give Chris Tillman a spot in the rotation. Eliminating Zach Britton from the conversation (if Britton is sent to Norfolk, it won't be due to performance), Tillman has the lowest ERA of the spring and a quick calculation of FIP shows he has the second lowest FIP (4.29) behind Bergesen (4.20).

But Tillman, seemingly, wasn't given a real fair shake coming into Spring Training. He was behind Jake Arrieta in the competition for the rotation from the beginning. And even though he outpitched nearly everybody else, the organization was tyring to find any way to send him back to Norfolk. With Bergesen, Matusz and Duchscherer banged up (to varying degrees), Tillman may sneak into the rotation and get his shot after all.

The team does not need a fifth starter until April 10th. But Matusz and Bergesen would both have to be healthy to push Tillman to Norfolk. Tillman's going north. And he'd better take advantage of the situation if he wants to stay there.

Justin Duchscherer's Spot in the Rotation "In Peril"

Although the Baltimore Sun reported that the Oriole got "good news" on the injury front, it actually seemed to be neutral at best. Buck Showalter said that Justin Duchscherer's chances of making the Opening Day roster were "in peril" and although they found nothing new from Duchschere's MRA yesterday, I'm not sure that's necessarily good news.

...(Brian Roberts and) Duchscherer, still struggling with his surgically repaired left hip, have seemingly been alternating good weeks and bad weeks all spring, and they'll remain shut down from extensive baseball activities for the next couple of days.


"With [Duchscherer] and Robby, there wasn't anything new going on there, but that doesn't mean everything is fine," Showalter said. "There are still some persistent things that have been a challenge for both of them."

So we should probably count Duch out for now, especially since before the MRA he told reporters that his hip "felt like it did last year before (he) had to have it operated on."

But that's not an altogether bad thing. I liked the Duchscherer signing for depth but I am beginning to believe that the team will be better off with Chris Tillman in that 5th spot to start the season anyway.

It was looking more and more like Jake Arrieta was going to win the battle for the final spot in the rotation this spring and that Tillman would be returned to Norfolk. But looking at Tillman 's AAA numbers show that there is little need for him to go back.

Lev    W  L W-L%  ERA  G CG SHO    IP   H HR BB  SO  WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
AAA   19 13 .594 3.06 39  2   2 218.0 205 15 56 193 1.197  0.6  2.3  8.0  3.45

What else does the guy need to do down there? I keep hearing that Tillman should not be handed the job and he should heave to "earn" it. Putting together numbers like that in AAA at age 21 and 22 is more than enough to earn a spot in the rotation.

The Orioles need to put Tillman in the rotation and let him sink or swim. He needs MLB innings at this point, there is nothing left for him to prove in the minors.

And if his shot comes because of a Justin Duchscherer injury, so be it.

Spring Training Updates: Week 2

The end of the second week of spring training games is upon us, so lets see how these position battles are shaking out.

Before the season I listed 5 things to watch:

1. Pie versus Reimold - Felix Pie is hitting .250/.250/.350 still with just the two doubles over 20 plate appearances and, characteristically, no strikeouts or walks. Nolan Reimold is hitting .308/.471/.577 with 2 homers, 7 walks and 5 strikeouts over 33 plate appearances. Reimold is not only outhitting Pie by a large margin, he's getting a longer look this spring. With Derrek Lee's injury, they may both make the Opening Day roster, at least for a while.

2. Chris Tillman versus Jake Arrieta - Arreita has a 3.60 ERA, Tillman has a 7.20 ERA. However, Tillman's peripherals are better (0 HR, 4 K, 1BB) than Arrieta's (1 HR, 2 K, 2 BB) I haven;t seen either of them to see how hard one or the other is getting hit. Zach Britton has been moved up to starter with Tillman working in relief for today's game. A sign of things to come? At the moment, it does not look good for Tillman.

3. Brian Roberts Rebound - Sidelined with neck spasms early, now he is sidelined with back spasms. Not good.

4. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Craig Tatum got up off the mat and is hitting .300/.333/.350 after last night's game. However, Tatum only has 21 plate appearances. Jake Fox has 30 and has posted a line of .367/.367/.767 with three homers and three doubles. Fox is getting the longer looks this spring and is hitting very well. And he has not embarrassed himself behind the plate. Fox has the edge.

5. Who's the Backup Middle Infielder? - None of the candidates has hit. Cesar Izturis has been hurt but is hitting .250/.250/.357 so far and probably has the job by default at this point.

Further developments: Koji Uehara threw on flat ground yesterday...Some beat writers believe that Ryan Drese has pitched well enough this spring to insert himself into the competition for the 5th starter. Drese has not pitched in the majors since 2006 or in affiliated ball since 2008...I saw Jeremy Accardo for the first time last night. He's getting groundball, throwing strikes and has yet to allow a run this spring. If he pans out, kudos to the Oriole scouting team for rescuing him from the Toronto farm system he has been buried in for the last two seasons...Ryan Adams might be a better prospect than I thought. He has decent power and a good approach at the plate. His fielding needs some work but if he's passable, the bat might play. He should get to (if not starts in) AAA at age 24 this season. I'll be curious to see how he does...Top prospect Zach Britton is coming up on the outside in the rotation competition. He has given up no earned runs and his peripherals and ground ball rates look great...Rule 5 pick Adrian Rosario has been wild and has a 9.00 ERA. The team can arrange a trade for him with the Brewers but he looks like a wasted pick at this point...Meanwhile, RHP Pedro Beato has a 1.80 ERA for the Mets but the peripherals are not so good for him. RHP Pat Egan has a 0.00 ERA but only two appearances for the Brewers. Both may be offered back to Baltimore or in Egan's case, he could be swapped for Adrian Rosario.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta

With the signing of Justin Duchscherer, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta became linked for Spring Training 2011. With his addition Tillman and Arrieta are the most likely candidates to be sent down to Norfolk. (Although with this news, maybe not so much.)

Jeremy Guthrie, Duchscherer (if healthy) and Brian Matusz are locks for the rotation. Bergesen is probably staying...he's not great but fairly reliable. So Tillman and Arrieta are dueling for one spot.

Some point to Arrieta's September as proof that he has turned a corner and should be the front runner for the final spot in the rotation. But while the numbers are great (2-1, 2.60 ERA, 13 K, 2 BB) but it was only over 17 innings. But over the course of the season, he walked nearly as many as he struck out. Not a good recipe for a young pitcher to make a leap forward.

Speaking of the numbers...

              IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   FIP   WHIP
Arrieta     100.1  52   48    9  4.66  4.76  1.535
Tillman      53.2  31   31    9  5.87  5.89  1.528

Yeah...still doesn't look great for Tillman here.

But it seems to me that Tillman got more "swings and misses" with his stuff last season. So let's compare with the data from Fangraphs. O-Swing is swings outside the strike zone, Z-Swing is swings in the strike zone. Swing is total swing percentage, F-Strike is first pitch strikes and SWStr is swinging strikes.

           O-Swing%  Z-Swing%  Swing%  F-Strike%  SwStr%
Tillman     25.2%      66.0%   43.2%     50.0%     6.3%
Arrieta     29.0%      61.6%   43.6%     54.1%     5.7%

I thought Tillman would have had a bit more of an advantage here but they are pretty much even. Which is disappointing. I would have expected a bit more swinging strikes from Tillman's stuff than Arrieta's but up to this point, they are in a dead heat.

If I had to choose, I still like Tillman's upside better than Arrieta's but they are very similar at this point. This spring, I'd watch the strikeouts and walks for both of these guys very carefully. Homers will happen in Florida, ERAs and Wins will fluctuate with the defense but the walks and strikeouts will be the best bellwether for their competition in Sarasota. And it starts tomorrow when Tillman takes the mound against the Phillies.

Orioles Sign Justin Duchscherer

The Orioles have signed RHP Justin Duchscherer to a one-year contract providing the team with some starting pitching depth as their young arms continue to develop.

(Great. Now I have to learn how to spell his name...)

I've always liked Duchscherer. He struck out his fair share and never walked a lot of guys. He gets his fair share of ground balls and doesn't give up a lot of home runs. Basically, he has been a guy who is not spectacular at any one thing but does a lot of things pretty well.

At least he was. Elbow, hip and back injuries, as well as a bout with depression has prevented him from pitching significant innings since 2008. Really, he hasn't had a fully healthy season since 2005.

But he's a depth signing that is low risk and comes with some potential upside. The base salary is reportedly just $700,000 and goes up to $1.1 million if he makes the Opening Day roster. If he's healthy, Duchscherer will only make $4.5 million.

Pitching is volatile. Signing Duchscherer adds a (potential) quality arm at a low price and will hopefully allow the team to not rush Zach Britton to Baltimore due to injury or ineffectiveness in the rotation. It's a good move.

On the flip side, where does this leave Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta? Barring injury, one of them is going to end up back in Norfolk. Is that the right thing for their development? I'm undecided. Arrieta has 28 AAA starts under his belt. Tillman has 39. What else do they have to prove at that level? I suppose it will come down to which pitcher looks better this spring. Which needs more polishing to their game in Norfolk?

All of this could be a moot point come April. After all, it's rare that you start the season with too many healthy starters.

Anyway, a good low cost move by the Orioles. If he's healthy (granted, a big if), Duchscherer could be quite a steal.

5 Best Things I Saw at the Ballpark - 2010

Even though I don't live in Baltimore these days, I still go to a lot of games every season. I figured it was worth my while to go through my memory banks and coming up with some of the best things I saw during the 2010 baseball season. These aren't necessarily Oriole related or even MLB related but here they are.

Honorable Mention - The One That Got Away

The Norfolk Tides were coming to the Atlanta area (vs. the Gwinnett Braves)  in late April and I was only going to be able to get out to one game during the week. I decided to go to Thursday's game since Jake Arrieta would be pitching on April 29th and I hadn't seen him pitch yet. Chris Tillman was going on Wednesday but I had seen him a couple times in 2009.

Well, that one decision cost me the chance to see Tillman throw a no-hitter for the Tides. Minor leagues or not, I have never seen a no-hitter in person and I missed my shot by 24 hours. Adding insult to injury, Arrieta didn't even pitch that well and the Tides lost a lackluster contest to the G-Braves the following evening.

#5 - August 6th, Turner Field, Atlanta, GA: Chipper Jones Last HR?

I headed downtown to watch the Braves take on the Giants for a Friday night game, mostly to see Jason Heyward (who had not been in the starting lineup during my previous trips to Turner Field) and see Tommy Hanson pitch again. Heyward went 0-5 but Hanson pitched well as the Braves lost 3-2 in 11 innings.

But with 2 out in the bottom of the 6th, Chipper Jones hit a homer to left to give the Braves the 2-1 lead. He played three more games in 2010 before being shut down on August 11th. There is no guarantee that Jones will be healthy enough to return in 2011. So that was, perhaps, the last home run of a Hall of Fame career. It is also likely that I saw Chipper's last multi-homer game on June 7th, 2009 when he clubbed two off of Brewer's hurler Manny Parra.

#4 - April 10th, Fluor Field, Greenville, SC: Justin Dalles with a Moonshot

The Delmarva Shorebirds helped me get credentialed for this game (thanks Shorebirds!) and it was to be the professional debut of the Orioles' 2009 top draft pick, SP Matt Hobgood. So I was looking forward to watching Hobgood and catching prospect Micahel Ohlman on a fine spring Saturday evening in South Carolina.

But as with most of these stories, it's the things you are not expecting that end up making the game memorable. Hobgood pitched but was wild and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings pitched. Ohlman was dinged up from the night before and was replaced at catcher by University of South Carolina product Justin Dalles.

Leading off the top of the 7th, Dalles hit a mammoth solo home run to center. It's 420 ft to center with a 30 feet of wall/netting to clear. It cleared all of that with no problem. The centerfielder took two steps back than just stopped and watched it. It was a no doubter. I don't know how far that ball travelled as it sailed out into the inky blackness but it was the longest home run I've ever seen in person. It may have gone 500 ft.

#3 - August 14th, State Mutual Stadium, Rome, GA: Inside the Park Homer

I took the family out to watch the Rome Braves who were hosting the Augusta Green Jackets for a Saturday night game. Well, my family was basically there to see Birdzerk. There weren't any prospects of note playing that evening so I was there purely to watch a minor league baseball game the old fashioned way...with no angles.

In the top of the 8th, there was a man on second with one out. The game was tied 4-4 and Augusta 2B Ryan Cavan strode to the plate to face Rome reliever Kyle Mertins. Cavan proceeded to hit a loopy liner to right center. Rome CF Bobby Rauh sprinted toward the gap and dove for the ball hoping to prevent the man on second from scoring but he missed it and the ball bounced over him and rolled all the way to the wall. Cavan was not particularly fast but was running hard out of the box. He rounded third before the ball hit the cutoff man and scored a full step ahead of the ball for an inside-the-park home run. First one I've seen in person and probably the most exciting play I've seen all year.

#2 - June 28th, Turner Field, Atlanta, Ga: Stephen Strasburg vs. Tim Hudson

Strasmas came to Atlanta on June 28th as the rookie phenom squared off against Tim Hudson in a game that, at least for 6 innings, turned out to be the pitcher's duel that had been anticipated. After 6 innings, Strasburg had struck out 7, walked just one and allowed no runs. Hudson has struck out 5, walked 3 and had also allowed no runs.

The 7th inning told the tale however, as Hudson got through the 7th with a single hit allowed and Strasburg got wild, was victimized by an error on a sure double play ball and his bullpen gave up 4 runs after he exited. It was a fun atmosphere. Strasburg outpitched Hudson but Hudson kept finding ways to stay alive. Strasburg was also making the Braves lineup look silly for most of the evening and the Braves fans HATED him. They booed him at every turn, urges Hudson to throw at him whenever he came to bat and wished (prophetically, perhaps) terrible injury on the rookie. It's a game that I won't soon forget.


#1 - Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD: Josh Bell Goes Deep Twice, O's Spank Rangers

It was my first game at OPACY as a credentialed "journalist" and rookie 3B Josh Bell made it a memorable one. Bell's struggles against lefties were well known and he surprised everyone when he hit not one but two homers against lefty Cliff Lee. Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton got in on the act as they also went deep against the Rangers' ace. The crowd was on their feet in the 9th as Koji Uehara closed out the game. The atmosphere was electric and was a snapshot of the excitement Buck Showalter had brought to Baltimore late int he summer of 2010.

The Norfolk Shuffle

Saw this in the Baltimore Sun's Orioles Insider blog from Jeff Zrebiec this morning:

It was pretty obvious watching Josh Bell the past two games that the young third baseman is really pressing in an effort to make a good impression. He was tentative defensively and too anxious offensively, and he’s clearly putting a lot of pressure on himself. After Sunday’s game, in which he hit into a double play with the bases loaded and no outs in the sixth, Bell sat in front of his locker with his head down. Bell has made a really good impression in the clubhouse because he listens and observes, keeps largely to himself and goes about his business. The veterans have noticed. Now, hopefully they can get him to relax and not play every night like it’s a tryout and he needs to prove his status as the everyday third baseman.


Gee, I wonder why Bell might feel like every game is a tryout?

You may as well paint Hwy. 17 orange and black with all the movement between Baltimore and Norfolk with young players this season. Bell has made the trip 5 times in a little over a month all by himself. Brad Bergesen has made 4 trips. Chris Tillman has made 6.

My gut has told me that yanking these guys back and forth due to performance has to be messing with their confidence a bit. Bell's mindset certainly supports that theory. I mean, if you can't start for the Orioles, how good are you really? It's got to be messing with these guys' heads, even if they are just reacting to what happens to their teammates.

You could make the argument that Bell wasn't totally ready for the callup. (Although, on a team as brutally bad as Baltimore, the argument could be made that you aren't worried about "wasting:" AB's on a kid who may struggle initially...it's not going to matter in the standings.) But Tillman? He's done everything he needs to in AAA. The O's sent the kid down to work on a pitch at the beginning of the season. Fine. But he's been jerked around ever since. At some point, you have to let the guy take his lumps and try to get better. Again, it's not as if Baltimore will be frittering away a playoff run with Tillman on the mound.

The lack of development from the prospects at the Major League level has been very disturbing. Hopefully, with Buck Showalter at the helm, the kids will be given instruction and patience instead of quick hooks, shifting roles and Greyhound ticket to Harbor Park.

Attack, Chris Tillman, Attack!

After watching Chris Tillman last night, time for me to state the obvious, with graphs.

The first is from Tillman's disastrous outing last night. The second is from his masterful performance against the Rangers on July 10th.

PitchFx graphs courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net...)

A few observations...

1) Tillman was wilder last night, not around the zone as much as he was against Texas.

2) Tillman got behind and had to groove more balls late in the count.

3) The balls Tillman threw in the zone last night were basically in the same distribution as they were against the Rangers

The thing that I take away from this is this: Tillman's stuff plays in the zone. He didn't get hit because his stuff was "up in the zone" or "right down the middle". He can work there. His stuff is that good. If he attacks the zone, he will be fine most nights. Hey Chris! Attack the zone!.

Easier said than done obviously. He is either not throwing in the zone because he is a bit gun shy or that he has mechanical issues that affect his control and he can't throw it across the plate without taking something off his pitches. Either way, the pitching coach should be trying to give Tillman the confidence to go after hitters aggressively or correcting whatever flaws he has in his delivery so that he can hit the zone more consistently. Maybe that guy should be Norfolk pitching coach Mike Griffin since he seems to be the only one to guide these guys to any sort of success.

Anatomy of a No-Hitter

Chris Tillman hurled a no-hitter against the Gwinnett Braves last night...right in my back yard. (I'm going to tonight's game...damn it.)

Here was Tillman's line:

            IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR
Tillman    9.0   0   0    0    1    6    0
 

Only 6 strikeouts over the 9 innings. Tillman got a lot of help from his friends. A breakdown of the outs:

Groundball   Liner   Flyball   Pop Fly
    13         2        2         4
 

That's impressive. Only 2 flies and 2 liners (both liners, fortunately for Tillman, were hit at CF Corey Patterson....a superior defender).

Now, Gwinnett has the lowest Team OPS in the International League (.627) but it's an impressive feat nonetheless. Congratulations to Tillman and his fielders on the accomplishment.

LF Joey Gathright
CF Corey Patterson
RF Jeff Salazar
3B Josh Bell
SS Robert Andino
2B Scott Moore
1B Michael Aubrey
C Adam Donachie


I'm going to see the Tides take on Gwinnett tonight...I wonder if Jake Arrieta can make it back-to-back no-hitters?

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010 (Final)

1. Chris Tillman - I didn't see this happening but Tillman did not win the 5th spot in the rotation, losing the job to David Hernandez. Tillman will start the season in Norfolk which isn't the end of the world but hopefully he's down there to work on the cut fastball. In terms of dominating AAA, the guys already done it.

2. The Bench - The only shock to me is that Ty Wigginton is still on the club. I felt sure that he would be traded before Opening Day and the team would carry Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore. Perhaps the Brian Roberts injury kept Wigginton on the team.

Justin Turner played well. Robert Andino will start the season on the club but Turner may play his way to Baltimore and push Andino out of the organization. Andino has hit better this spring but still doesn't walk and looked shaky in the field. Turner has a better bat and he looked good at short for Norfolk, at least the two times I saw him.

3. Health - Brad Bergesen and Will Ohman look to be fully healthy . Nolan Reimold is recovering (and admittedly, he has looked like he's moving well, better than I expected at this point) but is not 100%. Felix Pie will be the starting left fielder on Opening Day but Reimold will avoid the DL. Koji Uehara has hurt his leg yet again and may not be ready for Opening Day.

4. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Chad Moeller did nothing to lose the job but lost it anyway. In a mild upset, Craig Tatum wins the backup catcher job. Not sure how I feel about that but for the first time in the last four years, the team went with the younger upstart rather than the steadier veteran.

5. Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson Mark Hendrickson will be joined by Cla Meredith who seems to have recaptured his pre-2009 form. Will Ohman pitched himself into the left specialist role and showed that his arm is healthy. Jason Berken got lucky that David Hernandez beat out Chris Tillman and opened a spot for a second longman in the Oriole pen. Berken has not been good this spring but he'll go north. Matt Albers had a decent spring but got lucky that Uehara will start the season on the DL.

David Hernandez Has Won a Rotation Spot?

Saw this from Oriole beat reporter Britt Ghiroli's Twitter account:

Hernandez smiled secretly when I bugged him about the 5th starter spot. Safe to say he's gonna be the #orioles fifth guy.

That's a shocker to me. Even though Dave Trembley has said all spring that there is an open competition for the 5th spot in the rotation, I certainly didn't believe him. But given Trembley's annoying tendency to take Spring Training performances way too seriously (see Alfredo Simon 2009), I guess I should have seen this coming.

David Hernandez has struck out 20 over 15 innings this spring and only walked 3. A strikeout pitcher in the minors, I suppose that the Oriole brass may believe he has figured it out again after only striking out 68 over 101.1 innings in 2009. I like Hernandez's makeup. Even when he was getting shelled last season, he never seemed to lose his composure. I just wasn't sure he was cut out for the rotation.

Chris Tillman has nothing left to prove in terms of performance in AAA. He dominated the International League and was the best pitcher in the league not named "Tommy Hanson". The only reason they might be sending him down would be to work on his control. He has walked 9 in 16 innings this spring and when I saw him, he was running deep into counts even when he was doing well. This was always a concern for Tillman and if that's why they are sending him down, I guess I can live with that.

To recap, not crazy about this move but you can make the argument. I just wonder if the Orioles are making that argument or just making a snap decision based on Spring Training stats.

Pirates vs. Orioles in Sarasota, 3/5/2010

In my continuing non-linear recap of my Spring Training trip, I present a few items from the first game we attended in Sarasota. The Pirates came down I-75 from nearby Bradenton to play a night game at Ed Smith Stadium.

For this game, I had good seats (I checked Stubhub.com and got a good deal on tickets in the field boxes on the visitor's side) but the weather was not ideal. It was chilly and windy and got more so as the evening wore on. I was not dressed for it but we did manage to hang in there for 5 innings.



Some notes from the game:

• Miguel Tejada got the start at third and did not look very comfortable there. He made the plays but was not smooth. As it stands, he is probably about as good as Melvin Mora was for most of last season and you have to figure that he will get better. Big arm on Tejada still.
• Chris Tillman got the start and was effective (2 perfect innings with 3 Ks) but was a bit wild and ran the count to 3-2 a few times.
• Adam Jones clubbed an opposite field homer in the 3rd providing the most exciting offensive moment of the night.
• On a shallow popup to center, Adam Jones ran under it and seemed to call for the ball but Robert Andino was running at full speed from shortstop and ran into Jones' left arm as he made the catch. Jones didn't drop the ball but had a few words for Andino afterwards.
• Starting 2B Blake Davis hit a rocket to Aki Iwamure at second that bounced off his knee and rolled away into foul territory behind first base. Davis was flying out of the box and was rounding second before anyone got to the ball. It looked like he had a good shot at taking third on a close play but Juan Samuel held him up and Davis put on the brakes and scrambled back to second. Samuel was lustily booed as he denied us all a chance to see an exciting play at third.
• Mike Gonzalez started out well but looked uncofortable pitching out of the stretch once runners were on base.
• Jake Arrieta was wild and had a hard time finding the plate.

It was a sparsely attended game which meant the kids could stand down by the Oriole dugout and get autographs almost up until game time and the Pirates were signing on the other side too.



Again, it was unseasonably cold once the sun went down, low-50's at best, so we left early. But even a cold baseball game is better than spending the evening at home.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010

It's that time again! 8 days until the first Spring Training workouts commence. Unlike previous years, many of the roster spots will be spoken for going into Sarasota but there will still be some things to look for, many of them holdover topics from previous years

1.  Chris Tillman - The rotation is pretty much set but comments from Dave Trembley and Tillman's struggles during his debut last season have left the door open. He's only 22 and if he doesn't look more like the Norfolk version of Tillman in Spring Training, he could find himself back in AAA to start the season. There's also an outside chance that David Hernandez figures out how to strike guys out in Sarasota and edges Tillman out. We know that Trembley likes to go with the hot hand in spring. See Alfredo Simon last season.

2.  The Bench - It's hard to believe that Ty Wigginton breaks camp with the team given his salary and his skill set. This opens the door for Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes or Scott Moore (I have not given up on Moore yet...). And while Robert Andino showed a good glove last season, his bat makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Justin Turner in particular could earn a utility infield spot with a strong showing in Sarasota.

3.  Health - For all the happy talk about everyone being ready for Spring Training, there still has to be some concern with how Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and, now, Will Ohman looks as they shake off the rust this March. For one, I will be shocked if Reimold plays any left field before March 15th. Koji Uehara needs to show he is back and can handle bullpen duty. Bergesen will have to show he feels good enough about his leg to pitch free and easy.

4.  The Battle for the Backup Backstop - This is my own pet subject and this year should be no less fascinating (at least for me). Trembley has already said he sees a good competition between Chad Moeller, Craig Tatum and Michael Hernandez. Sure, it's not earthshaking but it gives you something to watch during the late innings of those early Spring Training games.

5.  Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonazalez, Mark Hendrickson and Jim Johnson are near locks for three bullpen spots. The rest? Wide open. It's an interesting mix of veterans and kids. Matt Albers and Cla Meredith will try to retain their spots. Dennis Sarfate will try to force his way back in after being DFA'd this offseason. Kam Mickolio and Alberto Castillo will try to build on brief successes in 2009. Would-be rookie Josh Perrault is my dark horse candidate to make the bullpen in 2010. Can Uehara and Ohman stay healthy? Can Alfredo Simon relieve better than he started?

Help Me, Oriole Rotation. You're My Only Hope.

An Open Letter to the Oriole Starting Five:

Hi guys. It's closing in on Spring Training and Baltimore fans are full of (cautious, admittedly) optimism and hope. Young prospects are on the rise, national media are picking Baltimore to be much improved and even projection systems like PECOTA have the Birds within the margin of error for a winning season.

But I know the truth. This team only goes as far as you five gentlemen take us. The offense is good but not good enough to outslug the Yanks, Sox or maybe even the Rays. No, we need pitching and we need plenty of it to succeed. The good news is, you won't have big shoes to fill. The starting rotation on Opening Day was Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Jeremy Guthrie. Jeremy, you are the only one who remains.

Each of you have a job to do and the Baltimore faithful beg you to do it well.

Kevin Millwood, we know your best days are probably behind you. While you are the de facto ace, nobody expects you to be anything better than league average. We need you to be Rick Sutcliffe circa 1992. You remember the Red Baron, don't you? He came to Baltimore late in his career to help anchor a staff of young hurlers (Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes) and for the first half of the season pitched like the Sutcliffe of old. OK, not like 1984 Sutcliffe but he went 12-6 over the first half of the season with a 4.13 ERA. He finished the season as a slightly below average pitcher in terms of ERA but for half of 1992 (and then some) he was a hero. He helped lead the Orioles, who had lost 97 games in 1991, to an 89 win season in 1992. More importantly, he bought time for the kid pitchers to develop and stabilized the rotation.

You can be that hero, Kevin. I know former Braves have not fared well in Charm City (Javy Lopez, Leo Mazzone, B.J. Surhoff v2.0) but this is a different era, an era of hope and resurrection. Seize the day and perhaps the Orioles will relax facial hair policies for you too.

Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles claimed off of waivers three seasons ago and you went out of the frying pan and into the fire. 2009 was rough on you. You gave up a league high 35 homers. But that won't happen again because deep down, you are a groundball pitcher with enough of a fastball to strike batters out. Don't give in and keep the ball down in the zone. You finally have help. A veteran to eat innings, kids behind you who will pitch better as the season wears on. You are battle tested, sir. No pitcher in baseball has faced the fearsome lineups you have faced more often over the last three seasons.

We don't need you to try to be the ace anymore. We just need your innings, we just need your experience, we just need your spirit. Just keep the ball in the park and let your defense do the rest.

Brad Bergesen. You were labeled a AAAA pitcher. You were not supposed to have the stuff to pitch in the AL East. You were not supposed to be in the rotation in 2009. But you were and you were the best of the rotation last season.

You're a groundball machine. You walk no one. Nobody's getting a cheap hit off of you. According to The Bill James Handbook, you might just be the best fielding pitcher in the American League. You have the best chance of any of the starters to hit 200 innings pitched like Guthrie did last year. You're a fan favorite already and everyone is pulling for you to succeed. Like it or not, you're the underdog and everyone loves the underdog. Just keep it up. Please.

Brian Matusz, I have not had so much fun watching a guy pitch since Mike Mussina donned the orange & black. You have four pitches and you command them all extremely well. So on any count, you are likely to throw any of them. It reminds me of Mussina throwing his knuckle-curve on a 3-2 count, buckling the batter's knees and ringing up the K. You are that kind of talent. I can see you tying the hitters up in knots, mentally and physically with each successive at bat.

You are to inherit the "ace" tag for Baltimore and become the best Baltimore pitcher since the aforementioned Mussina. The rotation is relying more on your success than on any other individual pitcher. But the scouts love you and I think you may be due for a great leap forward in 2010.

Chris Tillman, it was not pretty during your 12 major league starts in 2009. A 5.40 ERA and lots of walks. But at the age of 21, you had nothing left to prove in the minors. You destroyed the International League posting a 2.70 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 96 innings for AAA Norfolk. It was your time. It is your time.

But just relax. No one is expecting you to be anything more than the 5th best starter for the Orioles in 2010. But I saw you in AAA. Your fastball moved and you mixed you pitches well. In Baltimore, you overthrew and that fastball flattened out. No need to throw through a brick wall. The baseball is an egg. Hold it like and egg. And by the end of the season, you may just start to show flashes of the ace potential you brought with you from the Seattle organization.

So don't believe the hype. If the Orioles are to surprise the league this season, it won't be because they signed Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, it will be because the five of you.

Now let's go O's!