Excercises in Oriole Lineup Optimization

Just so we're clear, this post is NOT in response to last night's heartbreaking loss to Tampa. The creeping fatalism, once so identified with Red Sox fans, that has taken hold in Birdland will not breach the ramparts of Dempsey's Army. I so swear.

No, I started looking at this before the game began, when I looked at the lineup and saw that Dave Trembley had designated Miguel Tejada as our Opening Day cleanup hitter. That's right, the guy who hasn't ISO'd north of .200 since 2005, the man who has only slugged more than .450 once in the last three years (.455 last season).

So, I wanted to see how much that was hurting the team. So I went to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis site to check it out.

First, I entered last night's lineup with 2010 CHONE projections for the lineup:

Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Miguel Tejada
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

This lineup is projected to produce an average of 5.128 runs per game or 831 runs over the course of the season.

Now, I entered the lineup I would like to see. (We'll forget about the personnel for a minute and just rearrange them...)

If you check in regularly,you know I have endorsed Luke Scott for cleanup hitter to start the season. I have framed this argument using slugging percentage or ISO but I think I need to break it down to more basic levels. Here's what I like in my cleanup hitters...With runners on base, I want him to hit the ball a long, long way, as far away from home plate as possible so that the base runners have the most time possible to round the bases and reach said home plate. The further he hits it, the more likely the base runners are to score. He might even hit it over the fence. And I want him to do it more often than anyone else on the team. Silly me.

Right now, that man is Luke Scott.

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Adam Jones
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Miguel Tejada
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

How does this version shake out? This lineup would score 5.148 runs per game or 834 runs per season. That's only three extra runs per season. Better but probably not that significant.

What's the optimum lineup?

Roberts
Markakis
Scott
Wieters
Jones
Pie
Atkins
Tejada
Izturis

This lineup would score 5.157 runs per game or 835 over the course of a season, only one more run than my lineup.

However, what if we moved Luke Scott to first base and plugged in Nolan Reimold at first base?

The best lineup would look like this:

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Pie
Scott
Izturis

That lineup would produce 5.274 runs per game or 854 runs over the course of the season.

So as you can see, lineups are fairly overrated, at least in comparison to upgrading the talent which moves the needle much more.

As long as you keep Izturis in the 9th spot and Roberts in the 1st, you can jumble around the rest of the lineup with only two or three runs difference over the course of the season. Could that mean a win or two? Sure. But I think this difference could be made up for with luck on either side. But replacing Atkins with Reimold instantly adds 19 runs over the course of the season. Now that's a huge difference.

So maybe we Oriole fans should worry less about the order of the lineup and more about the personnel that comprises it.

Pirates vs. Orioles in Sarasota, 3/5/2010

In my continuing non-linear recap of my Spring Training trip, I present a few items from the first game we attended in Sarasota. The Pirates came down I-75 from nearby Bradenton to play a night game at Ed Smith Stadium.

For this game, I had good seats (I checked Stubhub.com and got a good deal on tickets in the field boxes on the visitor's side) but the weather was not ideal. It was chilly and windy and got more so as the evening wore on. I was not dressed for it but we did manage to hang in there for 5 innings.



Some notes from the game:

• Miguel Tejada got the start at third and did not look very comfortable there. He made the plays but was not smooth. As it stands, he is probably about as good as Melvin Mora was for most of last season and you have to figure that he will get better. Big arm on Tejada still.
• Chris Tillman got the start and was effective (2 perfect innings with 3 Ks) but was a bit wild and ran the count to 3-2 a few times.
• Adam Jones clubbed an opposite field homer in the 3rd providing the most exciting offensive moment of the night.
• On a shallow popup to center, Adam Jones ran under it and seemed to call for the ball but Robert Andino was running at full speed from shortstop and ran into Jones' left arm as he made the catch. Jones didn't drop the ball but had a few words for Andino afterwards.
• Starting 2B Blake Davis hit a rocket to Aki Iwamure at second that bounced off his knee and rolled away into foul territory behind first base. Davis was flying out of the box and was rounding second before anyone got to the ball. It looked like he had a good shot at taking third on a close play but Juan Samuel held him up and Davis put on the brakes and scrambled back to second. Samuel was lustily booed as he denied us all a chance to see an exciting play at third.
• Mike Gonzalez started out well but looked uncofortable pitching out of the stretch once runners were on base.
• Jake Arrieta was wild and had a hard time finding the plate.

It was a sparsely attended game which meant the kids could stand down by the Oriole dugout and get autographs almost up until game time and the Pirates were signing on the other side too.



Again, it was unseasonably cold once the sun went down, low-50's at best, so we left early. But even a cold baseball game is better than spending the evening at home.

Miggy Didn't Report Until Today....And So What?

A sampling of comments around the web about the fact that Miguel Tejada did not report to camp until today:

I see Tejada is making a strong effort to restore the fans confidence.

I suppose we shouldn't read anything into it this early but there is a marked difference in Atkins showing up early looking to work with the Crow.


He never was much for practice or leading by example.

I hope Tejeda has been taking ground balls since he signed. I would have thought myself he would have been the 1st one in camp to work at the hot corner but that is just me.


He should have reported early to show that he is ready to lead and to hustle, but NOOO he has to drag ass in at the last possible moment to create drama. Mark my words, before this season is over Andy Macphail will regret bringing him back.

 Really? Pitchers and catchers didn't report until last Wednesday. Position players didn't start reporting until yesterday. Does anyone truly believe that and extra 1-5 days in camp will make the difference between Tejada being a good fielder ro a poor fielder at third base? I think this is just frustration from the fans and Tejada makes a good target.

Luke Scott doesn't know exactly where he's going to play. Not one comment seen about Scott not reporting early. Hmmm.....

Base Hits: Offseason Moves, Suspensions and Hope for the Season

Erik Bedard went back to Seattle. Now that the best of the remaining "high risk, high reward" pitchers is off the market, one has to wonder if the O's will now bring in a couple guys on minor league deals. The pickings are slim. Todd Wellemeyer. Kip Wells. Livan Hernandez. Jason Jennings. Kris Benson. And more like that. The Orioles have been linked to none of them.

One intriguing possibility would be Noah Lowry if he's truly healthy but for now it appears that the Orioles are satisfied to go to Spring Training with David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Alfredo Simon as backup plans.

(And it's nice lip service and all but I don't believe for a second that Chris Tillman has serious competition for a rotation spot. It's a nice thing for Dave Trembley to say for motivation but Tillman is in the rotation barring injury.)

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Oriole minor league reliever Brian Parker has been suspended for 50 games after violating the Minor League drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Given the level of prospect, I'll label this one "BFD".

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I was listening to the MLB Home Plate channel on Sirius/XM radio last Wednesday when Adam Jones was pulled over while conducting a phone interview with Casey Stern and Kevin Kennedy. "Guy's, you're not going to believe this but I'm getting pulled over." sais Adam, then as he addressed the officer, "Hold on, I'm conducting an interview. Let me get off the phone." He was pulled over and cited for having his windows tinted too darkly (Jones lives in San Diego but was in Arizona for offseason workouts) and when he came back on the show he reported that the officer was a Red Sox fan and like Jacoby Ellsbury. Adam's mother defended him over here.

But here's some other gems from the interview:

Jones doesn't care where he hits in the lineup, he just likes hitting with Brian Roberts on base. If Nick Markakis is on base too, all the better. He just likes to drive in runs.

On Nick Markakis' arm and defensive prowess, ""I yell at him everytime he gets to throw. He has a great arm. I love it. I loive watching him throw."

In addressing a couple of off-beat question from Casey Stern, Jones reports that he is the most likely Oriole to lock his keys in his car and that Nick Markakis is the teammate most in need of a makeover. "He wears the 'Who shot the couch?' coat sometimes."

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In other various roster news, Roch Kubatko thinks that Ty Wigginton may get dealt before the season begins. I have been assuming/hoping that he will since Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada make him expendable and moving him gives Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore a shot at a bench spot.

Japanese lefthander Hisanori Takahashi,a former team mate of Koji Uehara, has rejected a minor league offer from the Orioles. Not great loss here as he would be providing only depth except for that cool name.

Dennis Sarfate has cleared waivers and will be a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. A little depth never helps.

Cal Ripken, Jr. and Brooks Robinson both believe that Miguel Tejada has the skills to make the transition to third base. The gist is that Tejada still has the "quick twitch" skills and the arm to play third, which is probably true.

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The Wayard O details Nestor's swansong from the WNST airwaves.

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In a variation of the "he's in the best shape of his life" stories you see at this time of year, here's a couple from Steve Melewski on former (and future?) Oriole top prospect Billy Rowell. Part 1 and Part 2. I'd like to get optimistic but...

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I love two things today; DJ Roomba and the latest edition of the Eutaw Street Chronicles.

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Last minute link: Camden Crazies gives us colorful charts showing how various Orioles do with pitches thrown in various zones.

Base Hits: Oriole FanFest, Anita is No More and the Miguel Tejada Domino Effect

Oriole FanFest was this past Saturday and many in the blogosphere attended. I am jealous. Here's the links to the recaps:

BrowserMetrics - Baltimore Oriole FanFest 2010
Camden Crazies - Oriole FanFest Epilogue
Oriole Post - FanFest Reaction
Dreaming in the Dark - Oriole FanFest
Baltimore Sports Report - Audioblog: O's FanFest Reaction
Camden Chat - FanFest 2010: I'm Feeling Pumped!
Mr. Irrelevant - O's Stars Turn FanFest into FashionFest

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Via DCRTV.com, Anita Marks is out at "The Fan 105.7" in Baltimore.

I never found Scott (Garceau) & Anita particularly knowledgeable (if fact, I though Scott was always kind of a knee-jerk douche) but they were entertaining together and did good interviews with the Oriole players.

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Good news on the Sarasota front as BallparkDigest.com reports that the Sarasotan citizen's groups that have filed a lawsuit to block renovations to Ed Smith Stadium are already looking for a graceful way out of this confrontation.

Regarding the lawsuit that blocked the sale of bonds to fund the renovations:

Perhaps sensing that they overreached, Sarasota Citizens for Responsible Government and Citizens for Sunshine have offered a compromise of sorts to Sarasota County...

Such silliness. County officials are confident they'll win a lawsuit...

Given that the group is already offering to settle the suit, less than a month after it was filed, indicates the group isn't totally confident in their ability to prevail in court.

While the holdup on renovations means the Orioles could walk away from their 30-year lease, it doesn't seem like that's a likely outcome.

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The Wayward O presents O's Fights, Part 2! This time, Aubrey vs. Melmo.

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Some more Miguel Tejada speculation...

How will the roster shake out now that Tejada, a guy who has played in 158 games for each of the last two seasons, has joined the team? There is no longer any room for Ty Wigginton at third base and Garret Atkins (who made Wiggy redundant when he joined the club and now, with Tejada, doubly so) will get the bulk of the time at first base. DH is crowded with Luke Scott and (when making room for Felix Pie in left) Nolan Reimold sharing the duties. Will the Orioles want to pay Wiggy $3.5 million to be primarily a bench player? When Michael Aubrey, Ryne Hughes, Scott Moore or (eventually) Brandon Snyder would provide cheaper and possibly better options, I can't see it. Wigginton is likely to get unloaded during Spring Training for spare parts or a PTBNL.

I re-ran my WAR spreadsheet...adding Tejada get the O's from 80 wins to 80.5. He doesn't move the needle as much as you might expect.

Many O's fans are excited about Tejada's return. I'm fairly neutral given the short contract. But if you pushed me, I would lean more to the side of Stacey's point of view that she lays out nicely over at Camden Chat.

I recognize that the Orioles needed to obtain an corner infielder for 2010. But in signing two, neither of which are really a part of the Orioles future, is doing just what I said at FanFest: it's taking at-bats away from young players who, while perhaps a long shot, might be a part of that future. We don't necessarily know what those guys will bring us. Miggi and Atkins? We pretty much know.

The Crystal Ball '10: Miguel Tejada

I was going to do a Crystal Ball on Ty Wigginton this week. That seems like a waste of time now.

Break out your old Tejada jersey. You know you still have it.

Since every one else has weighed in on this deal over the weekend, I guess I will too. I am on record that I saw no need to bring in anybody else to play third base this season. I thought there were internal options that could have held down the fort until top 3B prospect Josh Bell was ready to take over sometime this season. But if they were going to pick someone up , I suppose that Miguel Tejada was the most complete third baseman left on the market. He can still hit a little and he should be able to play above average defense. It's not a bunch of money and it's only for one season. There is no bad 1-year contract really, the money isn't bad and if Bell is really, really ready, the team won't let Tejada won't block him.

Tejada had a .313/.340/.455 line (14 HR, 46 2B) for Houston last year which gives him a .799 OPS, very close to what he had for Baltimore in 2007. That's a pretty good bat for a shortstop, not so much for a third baseman. Coming back to the stronger league, CHONE projects him at .767 OPS which seems reasonable. That production would have put him squarely in the middle of all MLB third baseman and light years ahead of Melvin Mora's .679 OPS from a year ago. Tejada will hit in the .290-.300 range, hit double digit homers and 30+ doubles. And in case you forgot, he'll swing at anything loosely near the plate.

How will the glove play? Last year, Tejada was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball according to UZR and no team was looking to sign him as a shortstop for 2010. His range is diminished and his strong arm is still occasionally erratic. I would guess that he will not embarrass himself at third but I don't think he will be even average.

Was he worth bringing back to Baltimore? It depends on your goal. He will improve the team for 2010. I just hope that The Warehouse keeps its eye on the ball and trades Tejada if Josh Bell starts destroying the International League.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Base Hits: Undervalued Pitchers, The Big Picture and News About Third Basemen

I wanted to highlight this article on FanGraphs.com if for no other reason that I also feel that Brad Bergesen is/was vastly undervalued and that Bryan Smith laid out his value far better than I ever have. I'm looking forward to the rest of his series on slider/sinkerball pitchers.

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Brandon Oland writes that he is skeptical (at best) about the Orioles' rebuilding process in the snarkiest tone he can muster.

But allow me to state that Brandon has no idea what he is talking about.

Example:

The players (Andy MacPhail) brought in are not improvements over the players he traded away last year.



Garrett Atkins is not half the slugger Aubrey Huff is.

Oh, he's definitely half the slugger. He'd only have to slug .200 to be half the slugger that Huff is today.

Mike Gonzalez is not an improvement over George Sherrill.

Oh, yes he is. Just wait.

Kevin Millwood is likely to be the opening day starting pitcher, which means the Orioles will be turning to a right-hander the pitching-starved Texas Rangers were eager to dump.

Well, this is kind of true but the Rangers were willing to part with Millwood because they are cash starved way more than they are pitching starved.

What Brandon fails to pick up on here is the function of these players. Atkins is a place-holder until Brandon Snyder and/or Josh Bell arrive from Norfolk. Sherrill needed to be replaced (you can argue if a free agent closer was the way to go...) because he was traded away for the aforementioned Bell. Millwood is here for one season to buy time for Jake Arrieta and Zack Britton and perhaps provide some steadiness to a rotation that will feature young hurlers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen.

These players were not signed to compete with the Yankees in 2010; they are here to warm seats for the kids who may be able to contend.

Now, I wouldn't expect every casual fan to understand this or know Baltimore's farm system. But then there's this statement:

I’m sure Fan Fest autograph seekers will be eager to meet Orioles stars Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.

But aside from them, what’s left to be excited about? Not much.

Except for Matt Wieters. And Nolan Reimold. Or Matusz. Or Tillman. Or Bergesen or Luke Scott.

Get out to the Yard, Brandon. There's baseball stuff happening out there.

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As if in response to Brandon Oland himself, MASN's Steve Melewski reminds panicky fans to keep the big picture in mind. Then he paints it for them. Well done!

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And the Orioles' rebuilding is being noticed. The Boston Herald took an in-depth look at MacPhail's handiwork and the prospect of a bright future at Camden Yards.

Matusz will be joined by right-hander Brad Bergesen, who was having an outstanding rookie year before being felled by a line drive off the shin, as well as righty Chris Tillman. Top prospect Jake Arrieta, another righty, waits in the wings.

“They’re coming,” one rival team executive said. “And they’re legit.”...

Add it all together, and the Orioles may be competitive a lot sooner than people think.

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Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune says that the Orioles are talking to free agent 3B Joe Crede and that if they sign hime, it could mean that Ty Wigginton or Garrett Atkins could be moved if Crede joins the team.

Given that Josh Bell is pretty close to the majors, I like the idea of taking a chance on Crede. His defense is stellar and if he's healthy, he helps the team a lot. I can't imagine the O's would move Atkins (although stranger things have happened) so I would think that Wigginton would be shipped off to the Nationall League for some relief pitching depth.

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Dempsey's Army wishes Brooks Robinson a speedy recovery from his abdominal surgery. Get well, Brooks!

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Kudos to Miguel Tejada for helping with the relief efforts in Haiti. Whatever you have to say about Miggy's Baltimore stay, you have to admire a guy putting something on the line to help with the tragic devastation in that country.

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OK Le Batard, I get the point of your fictional steroid apology. But did you have to use Cal Ripken in it? Don't Baltimore fans suffer enough? Next time, use Tony Gwynn.

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I should mention the Oriole FanFest coming up this weekend:

Over 60 current, future and former Orioles players and coaches will participate in the team's 2010 FanFest event at the Baltimore Convention Center next Saturday, January 23. Presented by the Sarasota Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2010 FanFest will feature autograph sessions and question and answer forums as part of a day-long celebration of baseball that will also include clinics, exhibits and interactive games. The event will be held from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., with early entry for Orioles Season Plan Holders to begin at 10:00 a.m.

Current and future players scheduled to attend include MATT ALBERS, ROBERT ANDINO, GARRETT ATKINS, MICHAEL AUBREY, JOSH BELL, BRAD BERGESEN, JASON BERKEN, ALBERTO CASTILLO, BRANDON ERBE, MICHAEL GONZALEZ, JEREMY GUTHRIE, DAVID HERNANDEZ, RHYNE HUGHES, JIM JOHNSON, ADAM JONES, NICK MARKAKIS, BRIAN MATUSZ, CLA MEREDITH, KAM MICKOLIO, KEVIN MILLWOOD, LOU MONTANEZ, TROY PATTON, FELIX PIE, NOLAN REIMOLD, BRIAN ROBERTS, DENNIS SARFATE, LUKE SCOTT, BRANDON SNYDER, CHORYE SPOONE, CRAIG TATUM, CHRIS TILLMAN, JUSTIN TURNER, MATT WIETERS and TY WIGGINTON.

Orioles Manager DAVE TREMBLEY and 2010 coaches TERRY CROWLEY, JEFF DATZ, ALAN DUNN, RICK KRANITZ, JUAN SAMUEL and JOHN SHELBY will also participate.

Former Orioles PAUL BLAIR, MIKE BORDICK, DON BUFORD, AL BUMBRY, MIKE CUELLAR, RICK DEMPSEY, KEN DIXON, JOE DURHAM, TODD FROHWIRTH, DICK HALL, RON HANSEN, CHRIS HOILES, BILL HUNTER, SCOTT McGREGOR, JOHN MILLER, TIM NORDBROOK, JOE ORSULAK, JIM PALMER, BOOG POWELL, GARY ROENICKE, LARRY SHEETS, NATE SNELL, BJ SURHOFF and FRED VALENTINE and former coach JIMMY WILLIAMS are all expected to attend.

Rick Dempsey and Larry Sheets in the same room? I might faint if I was there...

Alas, I will be unable to make it living in Atlanta and all. Anyway, I've already been to one FanFest this offseason.

Go out and support the team, it sounds like fun. Say hi to Brandon Oland for me.

BHI: Millar, Tejada and Tettleton

What is BHI? Look here...

Kevin Millar - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Kevin, we hardly knew you. Millar had a somewhat good rep for hitting big homers and he did hit 7 game-tying, a very good percentage. But he hit a ton of homers with nobody on base and hit nearly 15% of his Oriole homers when the O's were down by four runs or more...the ultimate in garbage time.

If not for one game ending home run against Boston in 2007, Millar would score somewhere in the Jay Gibbons range. Instead, he finishes with a slightly less lackluster score.

BHI - 117


Miguel Tejada - 102 Oriole Career Homers

While Tejada's "truthiness" is pretty suspect these days, his bat was not...at least early in his Oriole career. In fact, most of the good scores for Tejada are as a result of his monster 34 HR, 150 RBI 2004 Oriole debut.

The good: Above average scores in go ahead shots and a walk-off

The bad: Nearly a third of his Oriole homers came during Garbage Time and nothing else stands out.

Just like every aspect of his Oriole career, Tejada's BHI starts out with a splash, then peters out into mediocrity at the end.

BHI - 218


Mickey Tettleton - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Tettleton is one of my favorite players of all-time so I was pleased that he scored so well and dismayed by something I realized for the first time.

Mickey hit a very low percentage of his longballs during Garbage Time (19%...one of the lowest scores in this excercise) and a whopping 54% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles out in front. The only thing that keeps him from topping the list is his above average percentage of solo shots.

What I realized was this: It was October 3rd 1990. The Blue Jays (the team who had edged out the "Why Not?" Orioles for the division a year before) trailed the Red Sox by one game for the AL East lead heading into the the last day of the season. The score was tied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth...when Tettleton took Tom Henke deep to right center ending the Blue Jays playoff hopes.

In the offseason, Tettleton was traded to the Tigers for SP Jeff Robinson. Tettleton would hit 30+ homers in four of the next five seasons while Robinson would continue to suck until he was out of baseball.

That's right. Tettleton's last hit as a Baltimore Oriole was a walkoff homer with two outs in the ninth. Ouch.

Anyway, Tettleton rates among the Oriole greats in terms of BHI.

BHI - 444


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Miguel Tejada...EXPOSED!

Miguel Tejada has admitted that he is actually 33 instead of his reported 31. He finally fessed up after ESPN's E:60 show obtained his birth certificate from the Dominican Republic and busted him on camera.



Wow.

Add this to the DL stint for Erik Bedard due to his hip and it looks like the O's are finally catching some breaks with some of these trades.

I liked the trades before these developments...

Base Hits: 1/16/2007

Yesterday was not a good day for Miguel Tejada. First, Congress asked the Justice Department to investigate whether Tejada lied before Congress in 2005 when he denied using or having any knowledge of steroids in baseball.

Second, an infinitely worse, Tejada's older brother Freddy was killed in a car accident in the Dominican Republic.

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This is a bit off the topic but Chris Shelton has been DFA'ed by the Texas Rangers this week after being DFA'ed by the Tigers late last year. Who is Chris Shelton? Check it out.

He never got a fair shake in Detroit and Texas decided Ben Broussard was a better bet to split time at first base. He showed fair power in his stints in the majors, he strikes out a ton but also walks a ton. If you plugged him in as the everyday firstbaseman next season, he would give you at least Kevin Millar type production but he's 8 years younger, far cheaper and still has an upside. Add to this that he's hit appreciably better away from Comerica Park and I think he's an intriguing option.

I have been one of the few out in the Oriole blogosphere to tout Millar's usefulness at his bargain price but you would have to dump Millar if the O's can claim this guy. Hey MacPhail, give this guy a shot!

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I would like to address the Octavio Dotel reports that Roch Kubatko mentioned in his blog. What a terrible move that would be. Signing a 34 year old reliever who has been bad since the end of 2005, who was injured much of last year, who has never really been that good of a closer (he has performed better as a setup guy throughout his career) would be a colossal mistake.

This team isn't going to contend this year and I'm guessing if you put James Hoey or someone of that ilk in that spot that he wouldn't perform much worse (if at all.)

I'll have to agree with Roch's post yesterday that this simply won't happen. I just can't imagine it.

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The Atlanta Braves have announced that they are moving their AAA affiliate Richmond Braves to a new stadium in Gwinnett County (GA) and will begin playing there in 2009. Why is this Oriole news? Because the AAA Braves are in the same league, the International League, as the Norfolk Tides. That means that the AAA club of the Baltimore Orioles will play 5 times a year in a stadium less than an hour from my house.

Well, it was big Oriole news for me...

The Big Hits: Miguel Tejada as a Baltimore Oriole

The Miguel Tejada era is complete. While Tejada's arrival did not turn the fortunes of the team around as we had all hoped and we watched him slowly decline in offensive prowess over the last four years, there were some good times. So after calling repeatedly for him to be traded this offseason, I thought I would send Miggy off on a positive note and look back at the 5 biggest hits that he had as an Oriole.

How will I define the biggest hits? I will use Win Probability Added (WPA). What is WPA? This definition will get you started. It basically is a tool that shows how much a single event in a game swings the odds in your team's favor. It is an especially good tool for examining how a player does in the clutch. With WPA, a homer in the first inning of a tie game is not worth as much as a homer in the 9th inning of a tie game.

With that, let's remember the good times...

#5 August 12th, 2007 - .378 WPA - Red Sox

In the bottom of the 8th, Corey Paterson walked and then Markakis hit into a fielder's choice. With one out and the O's down 3-1, Eric Gagne took the mound in relief of Hideki Okajima and Tejada took a 3-2 fastball an deposited it in the leftfield bleachers to tie the game.

The O's would eventually win the game with Kevin Millar's homer in the bottom of the 10th.

#4 May 24th, 2007 - .408 WPA - Blue Jays

There were 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th against the Blue Jays and the Orioles were down 2-1. Corey Patterson was at third and Markakis had walked to set the table for Tejada. Miggy turned that 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 lead as he laced a homer down the leftfield line off of Shawn Marcum.

The O's would lose this one in the 10th as John Parrish and Danys Baez would fritter away a fine outing from Jeremy Gutherie.

#3 July 18th, 2005 - .408 WPA - Twins

Tied 2-2 with the Twins with 2 outs in the top of the 11th, Tejada sent a ball deep into the left-center seats off of Juan Rincon.

Jorge Julio would pitch a scoreless 11th to close out the 3-2 victory.

#2 May 14th, 2004 - .414 WPA - Angels

Down 9-6 in the bottom of the ninth, the Orioles showed some life as Luis Matos (!?!?) would lead off the inning with a homerun. With one out and Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts on Second and third respectively, Miguel struck a Troy Percival pitch for a single to center to drive them both in, tying the game.

This time, Jorge Julio would snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by allowing the Angels to score in the top of the 10th and giving them a 10-9 win.

#1 September 24th, 2004 - .468 WPA - Tigers

The bottom of the 9th started with Roberts and Mora getting on base. Down 5-4 to the Tigers, Tejada took Estaban Yan deep for a 3-run walk-off homer. Simple enough.

I wonder how many big hits Luis Hernandez will deliver?

Year End Thoughts

There are plenty of year end wrapups across the O's Blogosphere so instead of doing one myself, I'll just highlight the good works of others.

The very prolific Anthony Amobi has end of the year awards for the Baltimore Orioles over at Oriole Post.

At Oriole Magic, Heathir Irvin has an article meant as a Christmas wish list for O's fans but does a nice wrapup of the offseason action.

The best of the wrapups thus far has to be the blow-by-blow of 2007 by The Wayward Oriole.

The official 2007 retrospective by your Baltimore Orioles.

*****

I think Roch may have already posted a link to this but here is a link to the Top Ten Oriole Prospects according to TopProspectAlert.com.

*****

I had a horrible dream last night that Erik Bedard was traded to Seattle but Adam Jones was not included in the deal. But it was just a dream, a terrible, terrible dream.

*****

I'll give some love to a new blog called Swanz's Sandlot who did a nice impartial (he appears to be a fan neither team) breakdown of the Tejada to Houston deal.

*****

Well, that's all I got O's fans. Here's to a brighter 2008 season...

Baltimore Orioles on HitTrackerOnline.com

A little fun with numbers during this lull in the Hot Stove action. Greg Ryabrcyk runs HitTrackerOnline.com and is obsessed with homeruns. As a result, he has developed various tools to determine how far homers actually fly, how atmospherics affect homeruns and who benefits from good or bad atmospheric conditions. I ran some reports on the Orioles to see if there was anything interesting (and I really have nothing better to do).

Hitter     HR
Markakis   23
Tejada     18
Millar     17
Huff       15
Mora       14

 

Now a look at the top homerun distances, standardized. Greg standardizes all homeruns as if they were hit on a clear 70 degree day and fell unobstructed to field level.

Hitter     Date     Std Dist
Tejada     4/2/07   428
Tejada     8/21/07  425
Millar     5/16/07  425
Hernandez  9/29/07  421
Markakis   5/14/07  415

 

Not too surprising that Tejada has the top two blasts on this list, he still possessed the best raw power on the team even if he doesn't display it on a regular basis. I never realized this before looking at these homerun numbers but Tejada hit 10 of his 18 homers in the month of August. I'm not sure how that escaped me before and I can't think of any player who has hit 10 homers in a month that didn't hit 20 total.

Next, a look at the top homeruns measured by speed off the bat (SOB) in mph.

Hitter     Date       SOB
Tejada     4/2/07     113.8
Markakis   8/28/07    113.6
Markakis   9/24/07    113.5
Millar     5/16/07    113.3
Mora       4/7/07     113.2
 

You can see how the ball just jumps off the bat for Nick Markakis and this comes as no surprise. The Hit Tracker also give an elevation angle on each homer and Nick's homers tend to be hit at an angle less than 35 degrees where most homers for a typical slugger get lofted out at an angle of 35-45 degrees. This shows Markakis' line drive power and also explains why he hits 43 doubles in addition to the 23 homers.

Here's the "No Doubt" homers which Hit Tracker defines as ball that clear the fence by 20 vertical feet and land 50 feet past the fence.

Hitter     HR
Huff       3
Gibbons    3
Mora       2
Tejada     2
Hernandez  1

 

Frustrating numbers here as you can see the power Huff possesses but is very inconsistent with. Same with Gibbons who only hit 7 HR in 2007 but 3 were killer shots.

On the flip side, here's the "Just Enough" homers. These clear the wall by less than 10 feet and barely leave the park.

Hitter     HR
Markakis   10
Roberts     8
Mora        5
Tejada      4
Hernandez   3

 

Markakis is not a real shock here due to the line drive nature of his power. Ditto for Roberts.

"Lucky Homers" are balls that would not have left the park on a calm, 70 degree day.

Hitter     HR
Mora       4
Roberts    4
Markakis   3
Millar     2
Patterson  2

 

As we have seen the declining power of Mora over the past three seasons, it is interesting that nearly a third of his homers last year were the result of favorable weather conditions. What happens if he's not so lucky next year?

Next time we'll take a look at how the O's pitchers fared in terms of the longball.

...And A Couple More Ducksnorts

Not all the proposed deals for Erik Bedard are dead as John Hickey writes in the Seattle Post-Intelligentcer. The Mariners are desperate for pitching and after being spurned by Hideki Kuroda (who signed with the Dodgers) Seattle has turned their attention back to Bedard.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Bedard is the second best pitcher who is being made available this offseason. Right now, the third best pitcher rumored to be traded is Joe Blanton and the A's are loathe to trade him to a division rival like Seattle. This bodes well for the O's who could demand young CF Adam Jones in the deal among several other prospects.

*****

A quick peek at what Houston gave up for Miguel Tejada and the Houston Chronicle's Steve Campbell wonders if it was worth it.

*****

Jeff of Lookout Landing ponders whether the Mariners would be best served by trading for Bedard. His findings? No.

*****

And finally, Advertising Age gives it's thoughts of the Mitchell Report's impact on the marketability of various baseball players under the following headline:


Baseball Sponsors Escape Mitchell Taint

Insert your own punchline...

The Gorilla In The Room

OK, get ready for the rant...

Up until now, I have avoided writing much about steroids in this blog outside of cursory mentions here and there. There are a lot of reasons for that.

First, I try to keep this blog very Oriole focused and so I would only think to address the issue if a current or former Baltimore player happened to be implicated or caught. To my chagrin, it's happened far more than I anticipated!

Secondly, I really don't care much about the subject. I know that players were using PEDs from roughly 1989-present and that there was no testing in place until 2004. I can live with that. I don't care who did it or who didn't because I don't believe we will ever know for sure. I believe it was so widespread that you can just slap that "Steroids Era" on the whole timeframe and be done with it.

You don't compare players against static records anyway. OK, a lot of people do but that's just silly. Was Pete Rose really a better hitter than Tony Gwynn because he has more hits? Maybe. The important thing is to look at a players career critically and not just the total stat. All the players who played in this time need to be compared to their peers whether you are looking at HOF credentials or just debating who was better than who. Thankfully, the thinking fan has those tools at his disposal.

What does this lead to? The cheapening of homerun totals for sure. Remember when 400 put you on the steps of Cooperstown and 500 was a slam dunk for induction? Kiss that goodbye. 400 doesn't even get you a sniff by itself. We will soon see guys with 500 on the outside looking in. All this is fine with me and I can live with it.

So I don't take it personally anymore when an Oriole or some other player I liked to root for gets caught or is implicated in a PED probe. The last time I felt that way was when Rafael Palmiero tested positive for steroids back in 2005. I wasn't particularly surprised that Jose Canseco's allegations about Palmiero turned out to be founded on some sort of fact. But when Raffy made that vehement denial in front of Congress and then got busted? Ouch. That told me that even the good guys (and Palmiero certainly was one of the good guys) were using and would lie, lie, lie to cover it up. Now everybody was under suspicion.

So why do I care about this Mitchell Report? Up to this point we have barely scratched the surface of this issue. The BALCO investigation brought out some names and there have been leaks here and there from the Jason Grimsley debacle and the HGH bust that netted Jay Gibbons, Gary Matthews Jr. and others. These are very isolated situations and very small, closed loops. But the names were in the press and many of these players were singled out and vilified.

Now the Mitchell Report has come along and revealed at least a couple more links in the chain. Former big league trainer Brian McNamee and former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski. Lots of names mentioned, some with more evidence against them than others, but it shows that the problem was a bit more pervasive than anyone really wanted to admit before.

Unfortunately, this report is still just scratching the surface. Do we really believe that there were no other trainers supplying PEDs during this time? There was an open market from MLB all the way down to the lowest levels of the minors and there was nothing stopping players from using. What about the notable missing names, the players who have been suspect in the past but have never been caught? Sammy Sosa, Brett Boone and others have been suspect in the court of public opinion for years. Where did Sammy get his stuff? Or Boone? Or Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Brady Anderson or scores of others who seemed to come out of nowhere to jack 35+ homers a season? Those who supplied the obvious "offenders" also supplied players who are not so obvious too. We've seen that in this report.

There is much more to be learned but we won't learn it anytime soon. Mitchell did not have subpoena power and could not compel anyone to cooperate if they didn't want to. Indeed, no active MLB player did. (more on that point later) The only hope that this report will really bring things to light in the near future is that Congress gets upset by the contents of the report and launches another investigation with real teeth behind it. It would be awesome. Subpoena power, taking statements under oath...that's where the real information will be spilled. Players (and others) who actually wanted to talk would now have an excuse to do so ("I was under oath buddy. I had no choice but to give up your name.") or be less compelled to cover it up since they would have much more to lose. Alas, this will probably not happen. The press seems happy to vilify Roger Clemens the same way they have vilified Bonds in recent years and not look much at the big picture.

On to the players, the commentary on the report by former players who are now baseball analysts was something I hadn't considered before but was one of the most telling parts of the day. As the report was being released, I was alternately amused and sickened listening to these former players continue to stonewall and hide their heads in the sand. On MLB.com, I had the displeasure of listening to Harold Reynolds, Eduardo Perez and Brian Mcrae all continue to either deny or diminish the severity of the problem during the 90's. Now I'll give Harold Reynolds a bit of a pass on this since he retired after the strike shortened 1994 season and most of his clubhouse experiences were in the 1980's. But Perez and Mcrae? Perez played from 1993-2006 and McRae played from 1990-1999. They were in clubhouses 162 games a year during the height of "The Steroids Era" but seemingly never heard or saw anything. When asked, they would reply with something like, "I had tunnel vision in the locker room. I just went about my business, played ball and went home." Later in the interview they would hilariously imply that the owners and management probably knew more about it than they let on.

One of the more extreme examples so far has been John Kruk who opined on ESPN last night that he didn't see what the big deal about this report was because "There's only three big names in this report!". Thankfully, Fire Joe Morgan printed a few more of his quotes:

You know -- most of this is all hearsay. You heard Roger Cossack say that this stuff wouldn't stand up in a court. The thing I keep hearing from Mitchell and from Bud Selig is this: "Now we move forward. Now we move forward." If you want to move forward, why do you bring up names from the past who have nothing to do with the game of baseball right now? Mo Vaughn, Lenny Dykstra, David Justice -- guys who aren't involved in the game anymore. Why bring up their names? If you want to clean the game up, clean the game up. Those guys aren't dirtying the game anymore. They're out of it. So leave 'em out of it and move forward and get the guys who are. But again -- why do you gotta name the names? What is the purpose of naming the names of these people? Is it to satisfy the public? Is it to satisfy themselves? Why drag 'em all through the mud? Let them go. You got 'em, you call 'em in separately, privately, and you say, "Here's what we got on you, now you talk." If they don't want to talk, then you can do something as far as suspension. But you -- you don't have to get out in the public with this.

And this gem:

But you can't prove that they took anything! Just because you have 'em doesn't mean you took 'em. Now, common sense tells you if you're purchasing them you're probably going to use 'em also, but -- if there's no drug test, no failed drug test, how can you suspend anyone by hearsay? I mean, that's like arresting someone at 12 o'clock in the afternoon, saying, "About a week ago, you had a couple drinks and you were driving, so we're going to arrest you now." You can't do it unless you prove it.

Genius.

There will be more of this over the next couple of weeks as the players' fraternity falls all over themselves to protect one another.

There was also Bud Selig's sanctimonious speech about taking action or some nonsense. I'm not sure how you can take action against players now for things they've done before these things were punishable by the league. Wrong way to go here.

There is no need for punishment, there should be no ramifications for Hall of Fame voting. Nothing. It's punishment enough for a player to be named. Simply bringing the stories into the light of day does far more for the game than any punishment ever could.

Some people out here in the blogosphere are making excuses for Brian Roberts (in my opinion) simply because he is a popular player and the evidence in the Mitchell Report is so flimsy against him. Admittedly, I would give Roberts a pass if he came out and strongly denied the claim.

Unfortunately, this isn't the first time Roberts has been implicated. His name also turned up on the Jason Grimsley affidavit (along with Miguel Tejada and Jay Gibbons...two players who had harder evidence turn up against them later).

And you can't ignore his spike in performance in 2005 given the other allegations. Here's a guy who never slugged .400 above rookie ball who suddenly slugs over .500 over the course of a full season in the majors and then continues to slug .400+ the last two years.

What does this whole long rant mean? I'm just frustrated. Not because I'm fretting about the sanctity of the record books, not because I'm concerned about competitive balance or because I fear the game has been besmirched. I already imagine the worst and it doesn't bother me. What does bother me is all the players, whether they used PEDs or not, will lie, concoct flimsy excuses and pretend none of this ever happened just to cover their asses or the assess of their buddies and peers.

I will continue to highlight that hypocrisy but hopefully I will have to discuss this no further for the foreseeable future.

Reaction to the Tejada Trade

National reaction to the Tejada trade has been surprisingly positive, something rare for Baltimore is recent years.

Baseball America sums it up like this:

While the Orioles didn't get a frontline prospect in exchange for the final two years of Tejada's deal, they did add rotation depth, with upside, in the form of Albers and Patton—not to mention an accomplished power bat in Scott.

Not exactly glowing but not bad, right?

Keith Law over at ESPN.com usually savages the Orioles as a hobby but he seems to believe that Baltimore got the better end of the deal. Since it's subscription, here's the meat of the matter:

By acquiring Miguel Tejada, the Astros seem hellbent on trying to contend in 2008, and the Orioles are the happy beneficiaries. In Tejada, Houston gets a good player who's already in decline and [Baltimore] receives a good mix of quantity and quality in return...

Baltimore gets a big haul considering Tejada's declining performance and healthy contract. The two central guys in the deal are the young starting pitchers. Left-hander Troy Patton has been a top Houston prospect for several years, and while his stuff hasn't ticked upward as projected, he has good feel of an arsenal that includes a four-seamer at 88-92 mph, a plus changeup with good arm speed and fading action, and a fringy slider at 80-84 mph that has some tilt but tends to flatten out. He projects as a solid No. 4 starter, although he comes open a bit in his delivery and has had minor shoulder problems on and off as a pro.

Right-hander Matt Albers is the other side of the coin; where Patton has good command of average stuff, Albers has below-average command of good stuff, with two pitches that project as plus -- a fastball at 92-96 mph and a hard curveball in the low 80s with a very sharp break. He lacks a solid third pitch to get lefties out, and his command has a long way to go, but his arm is too good to be included in a big package like this.

Baltimore also picked up three other players, although none figure into the Orioles' long-term plans just yet. Luke Scott, a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder coveted by a number of other clubs to be part of a platoon solution in left or right field; his defense is shaky but he shines against right-handed pitching. Don't be surprised if the Orioles keep him moving in a second deal.

Right-hander Dennis Sarfate has an outstanding arm, with a 95-98 mph fastball and good downhill plane, but his control ranges from bad to horrid, and he's just a good lottery ticket for the Orioles at this point, which makes him a good fourth guy in a deal. Mike Costanzo projects as a quadruple-A player; he has trouble making contact with better stuff and is very rough at third base.

It's hard to make sense of this deal for Houston, a club that continues to act like a contender despite going 73-89 last year with no real reason to expect the in-house personnel to improve.

More to come...

*****

As an aside, The Mitchell Report will be released within the next couple of hours. While I usually don't chase all these PED stories, I find myself distracted waiting for this report to be released. I think it's a really big step to clearing the air even if, as I've said before, I think it'll be 20 years down the line before we get a real good picture of how rampant all of this was.

THE TEJADA ERA IS OVER!

McPhail sends O's shortstop to Houston

Miguel Tejada has finally been traded. This is pretty exciting, not because I didn't like Tejada as a player because I think I liked him more than most but because this signals a big shift in philosophy for the organization and means more change is soon to come.

The primary piece that Baltimore received was OF Luke Scott. Scott is a flawed player but you can stick him in LF and he's an immediate improvement over what we've had over the past three years. Scott hit only .255 and struck out 95 times in 132 games last year but also hit 18 HR, slugged over .500 and got on base at a .351 clip. He brings some pop and some patience to a lineup that desperately needs it. On top of that, he is a serviceable defender.

Now, I would have given up Tejada for Scott and a bag of balls but McPhail seems to have gotten some real interesting players that could be contributing in Baltimore sooner rather than later.

3B Mike Costanzo will be 24 next season and hit .270 with 27 homers at AA Reading last season. He is a legitimate slugging prospect at a corner infield position.

RP Dennis Sarfate is a big righty who misses bats but has problems with control. He has had brief big league experience the last two seasons and has performed well. Getting players like this will help the O's rebuild the bullpen on the cheap.

SP Troy Patton will only be 22 next season and started 2 games for the Astros last season going 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy but has nice control as he rarely issues walks. He'll be able to battle for a spot in the rotation in Spring Training. Oh yeah, he's a lefty.

RP Matt Albers started and relieved for Houston last season with so-so results. Look for him to be a long relief guy in Baltimore if he cuts the mustard.

I love this trade. The O's unloaded a big contact and got some players that will make immediate impacts, some that will help down the road and all addressed needs within the organization to some extent.

I give the trade an A at this point.

Winter Meetings Wrap-up

As the Winter Meetings come to a close, the Oriole roster remains the same as it was when the meetings started on Monday. That doesn't mean things aren't in the works though.

Erik Bedard

According to the Nashville Confidential blog on MLB.com:

...pitching is still at a premium...It's why the Orioles, who are listening to offers for Erik Bedard, have had inquiries from no fewer than 11 teams regarding the sensational left-hander.

That number of teams showing interest is pretty encouraging that something will get done and the Baltimore will get pretty good value for Bedard. The rumored offers so far:

Dodgers: OF Matt Kemp and RP Jonathan Broxton
Mariners: OF Adam Jones and other various prospects
Mets: OF Carlos Gomez, RP Aaron Heilman and SP Philip Humber

As I've said before, I love the Dodger offer. Matt Kemp can take over in left immediately and Broxton has closer type stuff. Now that LA has signed Andruw Jones, they have too many outfielders.

Adam Jones is a centerfielder with some pop and is intriguing as well. The Mets offer is not good enough in my opinion.

Miguel Tejada

Not much talk about Tejada although now that Miguel Cabrera is in Detroit you would expect teams with 3B needs will start to put together some offers. Obviously, it will take much less to pry Tejada away.

Brian Roberts

A surprise addition to the rumor mill, Brain Roberts is evidently highly valued by the Cubs. Early reports had two pitchers (Rich Hill among them) and OF Matt Murton heading to Charm City but the subsequent reports seem to indicate Chicago is not willing to give up Hill.

The only other news to come out today in that OF Jay Gibbons has been suspended for 15 days for violating the drug policy. It's an old story and a non-story. The only surprise to me is that the suspension is so short.

More analysis of the Rule V draft later...

Winter Meetings Part II

This on the Winter Meetings from Peter Schmuck earlier this week:

I've heard the argument that Bedard will be worth just as much or more in July as he's worth now, which might be true if you could guarantee he'll be healthy and productive at midseason. I've also heard how the Orioles have to be extra cautious because they only have so many tradable players and can't afford to make a mistake.Of course, it's that kind of thinking that has made them one of baseball's most timid teams at trade time since the Glenn Davis disaster of the early 1990s.

The Glen Davis trade set the O's back at least 5 years when they made it. They gave up Pete Harnisch, Curt Schilling and Steve Finley for that guy. Think about it. I'd be timid too after that. Or at least a little cautious.

If they hang on to Bedard without signing him long term, they become vulnerable not only to another injury but also to the possibility that he could make it difficult to complete a deal next year by telegraphing a firm intention to enter the free-agent market after the 2009 season. If you think he's above that sort of thing, you haven't met him.

The Orioles would be vulnerable to an injury whether they sign him or not. Look, I agree that you need to move Bedard while his value is peaking but I doubt his value will be any less in March than it is now. You have to make the right deal. (I think that deal involves the Dodgers and includes Matt Kemp but that's just my opinion now isn't it?)

The most compelling reason for decisive action, however, has nothing to do with the circumstances of the individual players. The Orioles cannot wait an additional six months or a year because they already have waited long enough.

Truly one of the dumbest things I've read in quite a long time. Circumstances be damned! We've waited long enough and demand change? If you don't take into account the circumstances of the individual players, why not just give them away?

Look, the circumstances are these: Miguel Tejada is still one of the better offensive shortstops in the league and although his glove isn't what it once was, he is still an average fielder. Erik Bedard is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is a great value since he is still two full years away from free agency. These are great bargaining chips and you can't ignore that fact and make a deal for the sake of a deal.

*****

Andy MacPhail is in no hurry to make a deal according to Jeff Zrebiec. Nor should he be! My feeling is that MacPhail really would like to make a deal this week but this is how you play poker or buy a used car. If you show desperation, you're done. MacPhail has the high hand here and he knows it, especially when it comes to moving Bedard.

This isn't MacPhail's first time at the rodeo and he had some pretty good mentors in his father and grandfather. I think we'll make out just fine.

*****

The Mets offering Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber and Aaron Heilman of Erik Bedard has been one of the most consistent rumors in Nashville this week. Not thick enough! Let me get this straight. You want to get one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL at a bargain basement salary for a light hitting but speedy outfielder, a pitcher with an 18-19 record and an ERA over 4.00 in his minor league career and a journeyman long relief man? Get out Omar Minaya! Get out of my office!

(notebook hurled at the wall as a frightened Minaya flees)

Il Buono, Il Brutto, Il Cattivo

Anybody get the reference?

So lets look at the good, the bad and the ugly from this past week.

30-3. Odd how most diehard Orioles fans laughed this off but many dopes in the national sports media actually read something into this. As if 30-3 is really indicative of what this team is about. (The Orioles are not a great team but we surely aren't Devil Rays bad...). Which is worse? 30-3 or 12-0 and 16-0 over two games (I'm looking at you guys in pinstripes...) It was a perfect storm and now it's over.

0-7 against the Twins? Sure, when Johann Santana's on the mound they're one of the best teams in baseball but without him are they really that much better? 0-7. And 2-4 against the Rangers. 30-3 doesn't bother me nearly as much as dropping that series.

The Baltimore Orioles' record now stands at 58-71 meaning they have to go 24-11 to close the season to hit .500. Guess what true believers? That ain't happenin'. So play the kids with abandon and keep the bullpen audition rolling.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
- Arab Proverb

Using this axiom, it is difficult for me to hate the Red Sox that much. I would rather anyone win the division than the Yankees and it's nice to see them finally falling off the pace and AL East title has officially slipped away from them. Now if Seattle (Or Detroit) can snatch the wild card away too...

Erik Bedard did not have a great outing but did finally take over the top spot for most strikeouts in Baltimore Oriole history on Sunday. He is now third in franchise history:

               Ks     Year
Rube Wadell   232     1908
Bobo Newsom   226     1938
Erik Bedard   221     2007
Mike Mussina  218     1997

With an average outing, Bedard should pass Bobo Newsom on Friday.

Congratulations to Kevin Millar for setting the club record for consecutive games reaching base that ended on Sunday. 52 games is pretty impressive, I don't care how you do it. His combination of patience and modest power has made him at least the third best Oriole at the plate this season.

The good news? Tampa Bay is up next.

There's a lot of talk about the Orioles' annual September swoon. This team is not going to go 4-32 to close the season. No way. But I don't think there's a lot of wins to be had when Garrett Olson and/or various AAA pitchers are getting a crack at teams. That's just the way it is.

An interesting article over at The HardballTimes about great platoons of the 60's and 70's. No surprise that Hank Bauer and Earl Weaver are featured as putting together some very effective platoons overt the years.

Barring a September tear by somebody, no Oriole will hit 20 homers this year, the first time that will have happened since 2001. What is so shocking to me is that when I looked up and down the lineup in Spring Training, there was no pure 30+ HR slugger but a bunch of guys who could have reasonably hit 20:

Miguel Tejada
Melvin Mora
Nick Markakis
Aubrey Huff
Ramon Hernandez
(a healthy) Jay Gibbons
Brian Roberts

Hell, you even figured Millar and Patterson to be good bets to hit at least 15 if they got enough at bats. Guess you never know...