BHI: Young, Singleton and Triandos

In my last Big Homer Index post, I made a mistake in the formula that calculates BHI. The corrections have been made for Jeffery Hammonds, Melvin Mora and Paul Blair on the Career BHI list below. What is the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here.

Now, more BHI:

Mike Young - 70 Oriole Career Homers

Mike Young was a 1st round draft pick in 1980 and after posting a .273/.348/.513 line in 1985 (including 28 homers) at the age of 25, he looked to be a rising star in the Oriole outfield. But he never OPS'ed north of .750 or hit 20 homers in a season again and was out of baseball by 1990.

Still, in terms of BHI he was very good. Two extra inning walk-offs and a very low percentage of his homers could be chalked up to "garbage" home runs. Young flamed out quick but muscled up when it counted.

BHI - 354

Ken Singleton - 182 Oriole Career Homers

Singleton is one of the great Oriole outfielders of all time and he fares well in terms of BHI. Only one walk-off but half his homers either tied the game or gave the team the lead. Also, just 20% of his homers came during garbage time. He's just on the cusp of the elite in terms of BHI for Oriole sluggers.

BHI - 274

Gus Triandos - 142 Oriole Career Homers

Did you know that Triandos ranks #11 on the Oriole career homer list? I didn't. But no game ending home runs and just 40% of his homers tying the score or giving the lead give him a decent but lackluster score.

BHI - 195


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career


Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Mike Young - 354
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Paul Blair - 290
Jim Gentile - 274
Ken Singelton - 274
Melvin Mora - 268
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Gus Triandos - 195
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jeffrey Hammonds - 84
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Big Homer Index: Mora, Blair and Hammonds

It's the offseason so it's the return of the Big Homer Index! What is the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here.

Melvin Mora - 158 Oriole Career Home Runs

Now that we can look back lovingly on Melvin Mora's career, I figured it was time to put him through the BHI prism to see how he stacks up. The answer is...pretty well.

Mora hit nearly 25% of his homers with the O's down by 4 or more runs but 41% were Go Ahead homers and he had a couple walk-offs as well. While the "garbage homer" score is high, he had enough heroics to finish with a respectable middle-of-the-pack BHI.

BHI - 238


Paul Blair - 126 Oriole Career Home Runs

Known more for his glove during his Oriole career, Blair delivered his fair share of pop with the bat. Even though lead-off types tend to get penalized by my formula, Blair acquits himself well in terms of BHI. Even with zero walk-off homers, Blair boosted his score with 51 Go Ahead shots and a very low percentage of homers during "garbage time". He finishes on the good side of 250 which puts him well above average.

BHI - 255


Jefferey Hammonds - 51 Oriole Career Home Runs

Hammonds was a disappointment to Oriole fans on so many levels and as it turns out, he wasn't even clutch. A whopping 37% of his Oriole homers came during "garbage time". A lone walk-off blast against Oakland in 1994 is the only thig that keeps his BHI from being sub-zero. His profile is classic stat-padder.

BHI - 109


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Paul Blair - 255
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Melvin Mora - 238
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jeffrey Hammonds - 109
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

BHI: Millar, Tejada and Tettleton

What is BHI? Look here...

Kevin Millar - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Kevin, we hardly knew you. Millar had a somewhat good rep for hitting big homers and he did hit 7 game-tying, a very good percentage. But he hit a ton of homers with nobody on base and hit nearly 15% of his Oriole homers when the O's were down by four runs or more...the ultimate in garbage time.

If not for one game ending home run against Boston in 2007, Millar would score somewhere in the Jay Gibbons range. Instead, he finishes with a slightly less lackluster score.

BHI - 117


Miguel Tejada - 102 Oriole Career Homers

While Tejada's "truthiness" is pretty suspect these days, his bat was not...at least early in his Oriole career. In fact, most of the good scores for Tejada are as a result of his monster 34 HR, 150 RBI 2004 Oriole debut.

The good: Above average scores in go ahead shots and a walk-off

The bad: Nearly a third of his Oriole homers came during Garbage Time and nothing else stands out.

Just like every aspect of his Oriole career, Tejada's BHI starts out with a splash, then peters out into mediocrity at the end.

BHI - 218


Mickey Tettleton - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Tettleton is one of my favorite players of all-time so I was pleased that he scored so well and dismayed by something I realized for the first time.

Mickey hit a very low percentage of his longballs during Garbage Time (19%...one of the lowest scores in this excercise) and a whopping 54% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles out in front. The only thing that keeps him from topping the list is his above average percentage of solo shots.

What I realized was this: It was October 3rd 1990. The Blue Jays (the team who had edged out the "Why Not?" Orioles for the division a year before) trailed the Red Sox by one game for the AL East lead heading into the the last day of the season. The score was tied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth...when Tettleton took Tom Henke deep to right center ending the Blue Jays playoff hopes.

In the offseason, Tettleton was traded to the Tigers for SP Jeff Robinson. Tettleton would hit 30+ homers in four of the next five seasons while Robinson would continue to suck until he was out of baseball.

That's right. Tettleton's last hit as a Baltimore Oriole was a walkoff homer with two outs in the ninth. Ouch.

Anyway, Tettleton rates among the Oriole greats in terms of BHI.

BHI - 444


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Big Homer Index: Belle, Devereaux and Gentile

What is BHI? Look here...

Albert Belle - 60 Oriole Career Homers

Ah, what might have been. The Orioles signed Albert Belle (on an easy pace for a Hall of Fame career) to a lucrative five year deal just in time for a degenerative hip condition to end Belle's career. How did he do in his two seasons for the Orioles?

More than 25% of his homeruns were garbage homers but that's just above the average. 45% of his homers were either tying or go ahead shots though and less than half his homeruns were solo shots. Overall, it keeps him on the high side of respectable.

BHI - 240


Mike Devereaux - 94 Oriole Career Homers

Go Devo! Devo hit just less than 25% of his homers in Garbage Time, right around average. But for a guy that hit leadoff or #2 for the majority of his Oriole career, his 45% mark for tying/go ahead shots is pretty remarkable. Nearly 2/3 of his homers were solo shots but being a top of the order guy, this is not a bad number. Two walk-offs help the resume as well.

BHI - 333

Jim Gentile - 124 Oriole Career Homers

Gentile was a shooting star who bloomed late and flamed out fast, out of baseball by the age of 33. Gentile was hampered by a Garbage Homer percentage of nearly 30%. But only half of his homers were solo shots, way below average and he had a couple walkoffs too. His rate of tying/go ahead shots was respectable as well.

BHI - 274


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Big Homer Index: Powell, Batista and Conine

What is BHI? Look here...

Boog Powell - 303 Oriole Career Homers

It goes without saying that Boog is one of the premier sluggers in Oriole history. While he had only two game ending longballs, a full 47% of his homers were game tying or put Baltimore in the lead, a total only surpassed by Rafael Palmiero. He also only hit 46% of his homers with the bases empty, the best number so far. He hit 23% of his homers in "Garbage Time", mostly when the O's were already up big. It's the only thing that keeps him from the elite.

BHI - 341

Tony Batista - 69 Oriole Career Homers

I really didn't see this coming. Batista spent 2 and half years on some really bad Oriole teams and the only thing he really did well was hit the ball over the fence. And he made it count. He only hit 20% of his homers during when it didn't matter and didn't hit fewer solo shot than average. 36% tied the game or gave the Orioles the lead and he had two game ending shots (the same as Boog Powell) in less than 2.5 seasons. He muscled up when it counted.

BHI - 406

Jeff Conine - 79 Oriole Career Homers

I always thought of Conine and B.J. Surhoff as sort of the same player so I didn't expect him to fare well in this exercise. I was right. 38% of his Oriole homers came in "Garbage Time". That's a huge number. He hit no walk-off shots. The only thing that keeps him in positive territory is his below-average numbers of solo shots and a moderate level of success in go ahead homers.

BHI - 5

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug DeCinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B.J. Surhoff - -64

Big Homer Index: Lowenstein, DeCinces and Alomar

There is so little going on in the Oriole offseason so far...

What is BHI? See here...

John Lowenstein - 68 Oriole Career Homers

Lowenstein had a reputation of being a big clutch hitter and his BHI score bears that out. Out of 68 Oriole career homers, 24 put the team ahead. He also had a walk-off homer and a mere 11 in "Garbage Time". Lowenstein earns a more than respectable score

BHI - 393

Roberto Alomar - 50 Oriole Career Homers

Alomar makes my arbitrary standard of 50 Oriole career homers to qualify for BHI. Alomar was very middle of the road. 22% of his homers came during "Garbage Time", 42% either tied the game or put the O's ahead and 52% of his homers were solo shots. Just above average here.

BHI - 230

Doug DeCinces - 107 Oriole Career Homers

DeCinces demonstrated some limited pop during his Oriole career and tends to hit all extremes. He hit over 30% of his homers in "Garbage Team" but nearly 40% of his homers were tying or go ahead shots. But his two walk-off homers give him respecatability.

BHI - 225

The updated list:

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
John Lowenstein - 393
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug DeCinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
B.J. Surhoff - -64

BHI: Palmiero, Dempsey and Surhoff

What's BHI? Look here...

Rafael Palmeiro - 223 Oriole Career Homers

Although the steroid scandal tends to overshadow his Oriole career, Rafael Palmeiro was signed in 1994 with Miguel Tejada-like hype and largely lived up to it during his Oriole career, at least the first stint. Less than 25% of his homers came during "garbage time" and less than 47% of his homers came with nobody on base. (The major league average is about 58%...) More than half his total home runs wither put the O's ahead or tied the game and there were 4 walk-offs. His BHI puts him on-par with the Oriole immortals.

BHI - 469

Rick Dempsey - 65 Oriole Career Homers

I almost hated to do this to the namesake of my blog. Even though Dempsey had a lot of big hits in the postseason, I didn't think he would acquit himself well in this survey of regular season home runs.

But he fares OK for a guy with only 65 career homers for Baltimore. Although he hit a ton of solo shots, very few came during "garbage time" (less than 25%) and nearly half of his homers were game tying or go ahead shots. The lack of walk-off homers renders him fairly average.

BHI - 136

B.J. Surhoff - 120 Oriole Career Homers

Shockingly, B.J. Surhoff is now the reigning Oriole king of the Garbage Homer.

Why? Just over 62% of his homers were solo shots and only 32% of his homers either tied the game and put Baltimore ahead. But the killer was that more than a third of all his homers came during "garbage time", mostly when the Orioles were either up or down by 4 runs or more.

I didn't even know this was possible but Surhoff gets a BHI that is negative.

BHI - -64

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmeiro - 469
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
B.J. Surhoff - -64

More BHI Analysis

There is close to nothing going on in the world of the Orioles so...time to look at some more Orioles and discern their Big Homer Index (BHI). What's BHI? It's a made up stat that examines who hits the clutch homer and the homer in "garbage time". Look here if you want to see how I determine the score.

Eddie Murray - 343 Oriole HR

I filtered Eddie's homers to only include his Oriole career, both stints. Eddie only hit solo shots just over 50% of the time which is a pretty good number. And nearly 48% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles ahead. Add to that the 7 Game Ending homeruns and his clutch homer stats are stellar. He's right up there behind Brooks Robinson on the BHI scale.

BHI - 469

Brian Roberts - 61 Oriole HR

Roberts' career with the Orioles isn't over...yet. But with the possibility of his exodus from Baltimore, I thought it was as good a time as any to put him under the BHI microscope.

Even though he has only 61 career homeruns, his percentage of Go Ahead and Tying homeruns is a Murray-like 47%. A ton of solo shots but he is a leadoff hitter and has a game winner under his belt. To compare him to another lead-off hitter, Brady Anderson, he actually acquits himself quite well. B-Rob doesn't hit many but he tends to make them count.

BHI - 138

Larry Sheets - 84 Oriole HR

A shooting star, Sheets was a heck of a slugger but had trouble with consistency. However, he didn't hit a ton of solo homers, more than half came with men on base. But only 30% of his homers tied or put the O's ahead and close to 40% came in garbage time. Three walk-off homers bring Larry up to respectability.

BHI - 266

So, the new list...

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

If the offseason continues to be this quiet, there will be quite a few more of these posts!

Big Homer Index Revisited

FanGraphs.com is slowly putting together a whole bunch of WPA data for decades past. When it is done, it would be interesting to compare my made-up stats with who actually did hit the most big homers in Oriole history.

What's the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here. And remember, it's grounded in reality but all in fun.

Chris Hoiles - 151 Career Home Runs

Chris Hoiles was a natural for this "study" because he always had the reputation of hitting the homer when nobody was on base or when it didn't much matter, at least the first half of his career.

BHI shows that Hoiles did hit a lot of solo shots (89 out of 151 career homers were solo). He also hit a bunch of homeruns when the game was already decided (21 homers with the Orioles up by 4 runs, 29 when they were up by at least three) but that's not the whole story. A full 25% of Chris' career homers put the team ahead and another 11% tied the game. Add three walk-off home runs during his career and Hoiles fares very well on the index.

BHI - 240


Brady Anderson - 210 Career Home Runs

Brady has a natural disadvantage in BHI because he was a leadoff hitter. Anderson hit a ton of solo shots (148) but only led off the game with a homer 23 times so I'm not sure things are skewed against him quite as bad as you might think.

In addition to the high number of solo shots, he hit 23% of his home runs with the team either up or down by four or more runs.

What saves Brady's BHI is the 72 homers (34%) he hit to give the team the league and the lone game ending homer he hit against the Twins on April 13th, 1996.

Overall, not too shabby for a leadoff hitter.

BHI - 138


Brooks Robinson - 268 Career Home Runs

Brooks Robinson is the standard bearer for BHI prowess, at least up to this point. Brooks hit 8 walk-off homers, double the number of Cal Ripken despite trailing Cal by nearly 200 career home runs. Only 40 of his home runs came with the Orioles up or down by 4 or more runs and 46% of his homers either tied the game up or gave the team the lead. This doesn't even count the postseason!

I can't imagine anybody topping Brook's BHI. He certainly took pitchers deep when it mattered the most.

BHI - 495


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Chris Hoiles - 240
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

More to come...

Sweet Swings or Garbage Kings?

I was going to write a post as a farewell to Jay Gibbons similar to ones that I wrote about Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard. It was just to be a quick note to show the highlights of his Orioles career.

Unfortunately, highlight material was pretty lacking for Jay. What was his biggest moment? In 2002 he hit a solo shot off of Ugueth Urbina in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game against the Red Sox (a game that the O's would eventually lose in 15). That's it. A nice moment to be sure but there's no more like it.

I liked Jay Gibbons as a player. Excepting the injuries, I thought he was a useful player for a few years for the Orioles. (And he was a good guy...) But for a slugger, he had few moments when his contributions resulted in big plays that changed the course of the game. A lot of his extra base hits came during "garbage time".

Ben at Oriole Central got me thinking more about this when he posted an Ode to the Garbage Home Run and correctly identified Jay Gibbons as a man who did not have many big moments with the long ball during his major league career.

And all that got me thinking about a way to quantify that.

Now I have. It's a new stat called the Big Homer Index (BHI). I was going to call it the GHI (Garbage Homer Index) but the stat gets bigger as the "clutchness" of the homers increase. You'll see what I mean in a minute.

(For any of you who hate or love stats when it comes to baseball, understand that this is just for fun! It's completely unscientific and the numbers are based purely on my own preferences. Something created for diversion and discussion, nothing more.)

If you don't want to know how I established each player's index, scroll down until you see Jay Gibbons' name.

Each component is based on a percentage of each player's career home runs. This way, a marginal slugger who hit 100 home runs can be compared to a player who hit 400. Homers hit when the team is up by at least 3 runs or down by at least 4 runs count against the player. Also a high percentage of solo shots can count against the batter too. The average solo home run rate for the American League is typically just over 57% so any percentage above or below 58% (divided by 2) will count against or for the batter respectively.

Go ahead and tying home runs count for the batter as do walk-offs. Walk-offs count 8 times the value of the other types.

So the formula is:

((% Go-Ahead Homers)+(% Tying Homers)+((Game Ending Homers)*8)+((.58-(% of Solo Homers)/2) - (% Homers When 3+ Ahead) - (% Homers When 4+ Down)) * 1000 = BHI

I am so happy I will never have to try to explain that again...

Jay Gibbons - 121 Career Home Runs

Surprisingly, Jay doesn't have a huge percentage of his homers coming in "garbage time" (up by 3+ runs or 4+ runs down) but he clearly falls short when it comes to homers to tie the game or put the team ahead. Zero walk-off homers also hurts his case.

Jay hit solo shots at an almost 60% rate which didn't help his BHI either.

Gibbons lived in the middle. He hit a lot of solo homers when the score was 5-3 or 3-5. Contributions to be sure but nothing much in the clutch or in game changing situations.

BHI: 42

Cal Ripken - 431 Career Home Runs

A man with the flair for the dramatic, Cal gets a big boost from 4 walk-off home runs. Ripken had a larger percentage of homers during "garbage time" than Jay Gibbons but he also hit a much higher percentage or go ahead and tying homers during his career. He also hit fewer solo shots than the league average.

Put it all together and Cal laps Jay Gibbons as would be expected. These two numbers should give us a couple of nice reference points for future evaluations.

BHI: 197