From Jeff Conine to Chris Davis: A Recent History of Offensive Futility at First Base

For more than 10 years, the Baltimore Orioles have been looking for a regular first baseman. By and large, they have failed.

Below is a graph showing the Orioles' offensive output measured by sOPS+, a comparison of OPS compared to the rest of the league's first basemen. (sOPS+ stats pulled from Baseball-Reference.com)

As you can see, the best the Orioles have done over the past 10 seasons is flirt with average production from their first baseman.

Back in 2003, Jeff Conine was just hanging on and the offensive output was pitiful. Production was buoyed a bit with the second tour of duty of Rafael Palmeiro and the massively underrated Kevin Millar from 2004-2007 (with an occasional assist by Aubrey Huff although he was mainly a DH). 2009-11 saw new lows in bad hitting first baseman with the likes of Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton, Garrett Atkins and Derrek Lee.

The Oriole farm system has been bereft of legitimate first base prospects for many years and they team has tried and failed to patch that hole through free agency with disatrous results at worst and mediocre results at best. Andy MacPhail addressed the issue by trading or claiming off of waivers every corner infieder he could  lay his hands on which is why we saw appearances by Rhyne Hughes, Michael Aubrey and Scott Moore over the past few years.

But finally, some of those MacPhail trades have paid off as Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis have combined to provide slightly above average offensive production at the position with some poor production from Wilson Betemit, Nick Johnson and Joe Mahoney dragging it down.

Chris Davis is under team control for the next three years and may be the closest thing the Orioles have had to a regular productive first baseman the club has had in years. He's probably not going to be the answer but he's not a disaster. It's not much but it's a start.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '09: The Case Against The Blue Jays

Hope springs eternal during this part of the season. To combat some of the terminal moping in Baltimore after 11 straight losing seasons, I have endeavored to inject a little bravado, a little hope for Oriole fans the past two seasons and I see no reason to stop now. Yes, the Baltimore Orioles can win the AL East...put much would have to go right for Baltimore and much would have to go wrong with the other clubs. If you put any of these clubs in the NL West (even the Orioles) and they would have a very good chance to compete, so I'm not running any of them down. But the Orioles are a bit better than people give them credit for. Especially when compared to the Toronto Blue Jays.

1. A Rotation in Shambles

Perhaps an overstatement but perhaps not. There's Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch but none of the other projected starters has a career ERA under 4.50. One of the best rotations in baseball will teeter on the verge of being mediocre. The health of Halladay and Litsch is essential for the pitching staff to be at least average.

2. Where are the Sluggers?

The Jays only had two players(Alex Rios and Vernon Wells) slug over .450 last season (the Orioles had 5 by comparison) and don't look like they will have any more than two players do it this season. Sure, Travis Snider might do it in a full-time role this year but Rios' slugging has declined for three straight years and Wells has already injured his hamstring...again. No one else is likely to provide consistent power to drive in runs for the Jays this season.

3. Scott Rolen

Before the 2008 season, the Jays traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen. Not only was Rolen two years older than Glaus, he was more expensive and under contract for a year longer than Glaus.

The Jays owe him $11 million per for the next two seasons. He has only played in more than 115 games and only posted an OPS+ greater than 120 once in the last four seasons. He is still a good fielder but no longer among the elite.

So why am I focusing so much on Scott Rolen? Because he is the highest paid Blue Jay, takes up more than 10% of the total payroll and he is a mediocrity at this point in his career.

For a team with a tight budget, the Rolen contract is an albatross.

4. The Infield Offense

It's kind of sad that Kevin Millar has a legitimate shot at leading all Blue Jay infielders in OPS in 2009.

Look at the names...Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Marco Scuturo, Aaron Hill, Rod Barajas, John McDonald, Michael Barrett...ancient Kevin Millar's bat doesn't look so bad when looking at the rest of the motley crew.

5. A Talented but Mecurial Outfield

Lots of talent in the outfield (and DH for whoever's not playing the field) but it's the production that's suspect.

We've already covered Alex Rios' declining power and Vernon Wells' injury issues (which won't get any better as he passes 30 this season). Adam Lind is talented but has yet to provide even a glimpse of the promise he did in the minors. Todd Snider looks like the real deal but is only 21 this year; it would be foolish to expect him to carry Toronto in his rookie season.

Conclusion:

The bullpen has been consistently good for years and they have a couple good arms at the top of the rotation. IF every one stays healthy, the Blue Jays will flirt with .500 all season. But they will be thin and unable to absorb a critical injury or setback to one of their starters. There is a fair chance that Baltimore finishes above them in the standings even if things go fairly well...

BHI: Millar, Tejada and Tettleton

What is BHI? Look here...

Kevin Millar - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Kevin, we hardly knew you. Millar had a somewhat good rep for hitting big homers and he did hit 7 game-tying, a very good percentage. But he hit a ton of homers with nobody on base and hit nearly 15% of his Oriole homers when the O's were down by four runs or more...the ultimate in garbage time.

If not for one game ending home run against Boston in 2007, Millar would score somewhere in the Jay Gibbons range. Instead, he finishes with a slightly less lackluster score.

BHI - 117


Miguel Tejada - 102 Oriole Career Homers

While Tejada's "truthiness" is pretty suspect these days, his bat was not...at least early in his Oriole career. In fact, most of the good scores for Tejada are as a result of his monster 34 HR, 150 RBI 2004 Oriole debut.

The good: Above average scores in go ahead shots and a walk-off

The bad: Nearly a third of his Oriole homers came during Garbage Time and nothing else stands out.

Just like every aspect of his Oriole career, Tejada's BHI starts out with a splash, then peters out into mediocrity at the end.

BHI - 218


Mickey Tettleton - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Tettleton is one of my favorite players of all-time so I was pleased that he scored so well and dismayed by something I realized for the first time.

Mickey hit a very low percentage of his longballs during Garbage Time (19%...one of the lowest scores in this excercise) and a whopping 54% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles out in front. The only thing that keeps him from topping the list is his above average percentage of solo shots.

What I realized was this: It was October 3rd 1990. The Blue Jays (the team who had edged out the "Why Not?" Orioles for the division a year before) trailed the Red Sox by one game for the AL East lead heading into the the last day of the season. The score was tied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth...when Tettleton took Tom Henke deep to right center ending the Blue Jays playoff hopes.

In the offseason, Tettleton was traded to the Tigers for SP Jeff Robinson. Tettleton would hit 30+ homers in four of the next five seasons while Robinson would continue to suck until he was out of baseball.

That's right. Tettleton's last hit as a Baltimore Oriole was a walkoff homer with two outs in the ninth. Ouch.

Anyway, Tettleton rates among the Oriole greats in terms of BHI.

BHI - 444


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Base Hits: 12/9/2008

Billy Ripken comes clean about his infamous "F-Face" bat pictured on the 1989 Fleer baseball card. Originally, Ripken said he was pranked by teammates. Turns out, Ripken wrote the "offending" phrase himself...

*****

Kevin Millar would like to come back to the Orioles, even in a part-time role. But evidently he is interested in playing for Seattle as well. My guess is that Millar wants to keep playing...anywhere that will let him.

*****

The Chicago Tribune reports that a four-way deal between the Cubs, Padres Orioles and Phillies is close to completion. I don't chase a lot of Hot Stove talk but the crux of the deal for Baltimore would send Garrett Olson to San Diego and Felix Pie would come in from the Cubs. Also:

The key for that deal to work is for the Phillies or Orioles to take Jason Marquis, with the Cubs agreeing to eat some of his salary.

That's an interesting wrinkle. Marquis is not a good pitcher. But he's only under contract for one more season and if the Cubs were willing to eat 3-4 million dollars of his $9 million dollar salary, he might be a serviceable stopgap.

*****

MASN has announced that the Hot Stove Show is returning December 12th. Roch Kubatko will be hosting with Jim Hunter and Phil Wood. I'm glad that Roch will be on the show, the more work for him the better. I'm even happier that Phil Wood will be on the show. Wood is an excellent baseball commentator and I listened to him for years on D.C. radio. From the press release:

Phil Wood has decades of experience covering Washington and Baltimore sports teams including the Bullets, Capitals, Nationals, Orioles, Colts and Ravens. Wood is widely considered to be one of the region's brightest baseball historians, offering fans both historical perspective and insight into today's breaking sports news.

Absolutely. Look forward to seeing it.

Ramon Hernandez Is Actually Awesome (and other collected tidbits...)

I was going to write a post about everythig that is wrong with Ramon Hernandez in 2008, speculate that he's injured or getting old and ultimately was going to recommend that Guillermo Quiroz get a few more starts in his place.

Then something funny happened as I looked closer at Razor Ramon. I found out that he is having one hell of an April.

This is hardly the descriptor one would use for a player sporting a batting line (AVG/OPB/SLG) of .208/.247/.416. I have noted that Hernandez has made the most of his hits by coming through in the clutch and is among the team leaders in RBI but in general, I thought he was having a really poor start.

However, as I was digging around I looked at the line drive percentage (LD%) of the Oriole batters and saw Ramon leading them all. How was this possible? It's possible because Hernandez has been smoking the ball all season and been hitting them right at the opposition. In other words, he's just been incredibly unlucky.

Hernandez has had a Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) of .191 so far. Generally, a batter can expect his BABIP to be about his LD% plus .12. Adam Jones, for example, has a LD% of 21.4% (.214). Add .12 and you get an estimated BABIP of .324. His actual BABIP is .329.

Ramon's LD% is 25.4% (.254). Adding .12, his BABIP should be .374, nearly doubling the actual .191 he sports now.

There's more. JC Bradbury created a stat several years ago called Projected OPS (PrOPS) which creates a batting line based on peripheral batted ball data like percentage of line drives, home runs, ground balls, etc. According to PrOPS, Ramon Hernandez batting line should be something like this: .314/.348./.506 for an OPS of .855. That number would put him in the top 25 in the AL and he would be far and away the best hitting catcher in the league.

Ramon Hernandez is blistering the ball and it's only a matter of time before things start to go his way. Look for great things from Ramon in May (assuming good health) and if you have a fantasy team, consider stashing him on your bench.

*****

While we're talking about PrOPS, expect Kevin Millar (OPS .671) to also get appreciably better (PrOPS .804).

Expect "Spanky" Huff (OPS .814) to get a lot worse in the short term. Huff sports the fourth worst LD% of any regular in the AL (9.7%) so that batting average should be falling precipitously any week now.

*****

Most defensive metrics point to the 2008 Orioles fielders as just average this year. But their Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) is a league leading .732. That means that the fielders and pitchers are working together to become a sum greater than the parts and converting 73% of balls in play to outs. That kind of run prevention can take a team a long way.

*****

David Appelman of FanGraphs.com has compiled new statistics to quantify plate discipline. Some Oriole highlights:

O-Swing% - The percentage of times a player swings at balls outside of the strike zone. Nick Markakis ranks 6th in baseball behind such "good eyes" like Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols and Pat Burrell. Nick only swings at bad pitches 12.04% of the time and the only other player in their early 20's who is even in the ballpark with Markakis is A's first baseman Daric Barton (12.95%). That's incredibly impressive for a player starting their third full season in the majors.

As you might imagine, Adam Jones swings at the most bad pitches (28.39%) and is swinging away at a team-leading 52.95% of all pitches total.

Brian Roberts makes contact 90.11% of the time he swings away, including a Vlad Guerrero-like 78.05% on balls outside of the strike zone. Amazing bat control.

*****

It's been awhile since I've harped on John Maine, a pitcher I hate through no fault of his own. Maine is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA so far this season for the Mets but his WHIP is 1.55 and his FIP stands at 4.71. You don't win for long putting that many people on base, especially when you are a flyball pitcher.

After the All-Star break last season, Maine went 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA contributing mightily to the Mets collapse down the stretch. Look for his first half number to approach these pretty soon, he's heading for a fall.

Base Hits: 2/28/2008

The Cubs and Mark De Rosa are all downplaying this situation but De Rosa will be undergoing a procedure to correct his irregular heartbeat. This may turn out to be nothing but it's worth watching. Obviously, if it's worse than they think, the Cubs may be more desperate to acquire Brian Roberts and MacPhail can extract a better haul of players. Speaking of which, this note.

*****

I like player blogs and look forward to more entries from Kevin Millar. Say what you will about Millar, I find his blog entertaining, informative and fairly candid. How many guys would admit that the losing wore him down mentally?

*****

So I'm listening to the first Spring Training game from the WHFS feed. It's great that the games have started but this game doesn't have much for us to cheer about this afternoon.

Adam Loewen walked 4 in 1+ IP and Ramon Hernandez has two errors. Hernandez threw the ball into left trying to throw out Hanley Ramirez at third and dropped the ball during a potential play at the plate.

Not a good sign from Loewen as he works his way back from injury.

Now where can I score some Esskay bacon in Atlanta?

*****

A story by Dan Connolly that ponders the possibility of Mark Texiera coming home to play for the Orioles in which Texiera says some flattering things about his hometown.

Oriole fans have harbored this false hope for a couple seasons but the bottom line is that Texiera is a nice guy and a fairly diplomatic fellow. I've heard similiar things out of his mouth about Atlanta since he arrived here last July. Here's an example.

ChopTalk: Your name was tossed around a lot at trade deadline time. What was your reaction when you heard Atlanta?

Mark Teixeira: I was excited. There are a lot of teams you may not want to be traded to, but Atlanta was definitely a team I was happy to come play for. I was here for college at Georgia Tech, and even spent a year (living) here after college. That made the comfort level that much greater. My wife, Leigh, and her family are from (Georgia, Habersham County north of Atlanta), and we both went to school here and still have friends living in Atlanta.

He has a lot of ties to this area as well. He's still a Scott Boras client. He's going to test free agency and will go to the highest bidder in all probability.

I'll call it now. If Texiera leaves Atlanta, he'll be wearing pinstripes in 2009.

*****

Oriole Central has a Spring Training roundup. Reading that post reminds me that Dave Trembley is looking to carry a 12 man pitching staff. As much as I hate having to carry so many pitchers, the unproven rotation and problematic arms in the pen make it unavoidable. Hopefully we can narrow that number down to 11, maybe 10, sometime this season.

The Crystal Ball '08: The Rest

Anyway, onward and upward. I'm not blogging about any more trades until they are actually announced. We'll see how long I can stick to that resolution...



Now we look at the rest of the expected roster for the Orioles. Since there are so many holes in the lineup, so many roles that seem unsettled (and so many trades that have yet to happen) most of these players won't warrant a full post simply because it is difficult to know how much they will play and where.


Melvin Mora

There's not much to say about Mora at this point in his career. He'll be 36 this season and offensively, he's been in steady decline over the last three seasons. There's even question as to how much he'll get to play with Scott Moore potentially pushing for playing time. Look for Mora to hit about .270 with 15 homers and OPS about .750. Mora's real strength at this point is that he seems to have learned to field his position. He had his finest defensive year at 3B in 2007 and was actually a pleasure to watch.


Kevin Millar

Millar will also be 36 this season but since so much of his value comes from his patience at the plate, I don't see his overall production dipping much. He set a career high for walks last season and hit 15 homers. He will bring much needed patience to a lineup that needs some and don't be surprised if he finishes with a higher OPS than Spanky Huff...again. At half the price.


Jay Payton

What few skills Payton had as a baseball player have begun to erode and he was pretty bad as a regular in leftfield. But he can still hit lefties and it would be nice if he was platooned with Luke Scott in left and Tike Redman (or whoever) in center. We have to pay the guy for 2008 anyway, we may as well let him do the one thing he can do well. Earl Weaver would do it. If he's deployed properly, I could see him hitting .280 and getting on base at a .350 clip making him a pretty useful roleplayer.


Luis Hernandez

Don't let the .290 average from last season fool you. He only batted .250 in 6 minor league seasons so I expect him to be hitting sub-.250 for most of the season. He doesn't walk either. His defense had better be great.


Jay Gibbons

Coming back from injury, it is unclear what role he will have on this team. To stay healthy, he will need to be limited to DH and will have to battle it out with Millar and Huff for at bats. Will he get enough plate appearances to work out his swing? He will need very poor production and/or injuries to others to get a significant amout of playing time. I compared him to Rico Brogna last season. Brogna was out of baseball by the time he was 32. Gibbons is heading down that path.


Adam Lowen

A veritable rookie coming back from injury with a pin in his throwing elbow? Who knows? Can you tell me what to expect from this guy?


Luke Scott

I'm going with the platoon theory here and guess that Scott will get something in the neighborhood of 400 AB. He'll get on-base at a .350 clip, he'll strikeout over 100 times and he'll slug in the neighborhood of .500. You know how many regulars we had slugging .500 on last year's roster? None, brother. Not one. Please platoon this guy with Payton in left. It would be almost perfect...

Base Hits: 1/16/2007

Yesterday was not a good day for Miguel Tejada. First, Congress asked the Justice Department to investigate whether Tejada lied before Congress in 2005 when he denied using or having any knowledge of steroids in baseball.

Second, an infinitely worse, Tejada's older brother Freddy was killed in a car accident in the Dominican Republic.

*****

This is a bit off the topic but Chris Shelton has been DFA'ed by the Texas Rangers this week after being DFA'ed by the Tigers late last year. Who is Chris Shelton? Check it out.

He never got a fair shake in Detroit and Texas decided Ben Broussard was a better bet to split time at first base. He showed fair power in his stints in the majors, he strikes out a ton but also walks a ton. If you plugged him in as the everyday firstbaseman next season, he would give you at least Kevin Millar type production but he's 8 years younger, far cheaper and still has an upside. Add to this that he's hit appreciably better away from Comerica Park and I think he's an intriguing option.

I have been one of the few out in the Oriole blogosphere to tout Millar's usefulness at his bargain price but you would have to dump Millar if the O's can claim this guy. Hey MacPhail, give this guy a shot!

*****

I would like to address the Octavio Dotel reports that Roch Kubatko mentioned in his blog. What a terrible move that would be. Signing a 34 year old reliever who has been bad since the end of 2005, who was injured much of last year, who has never really been that good of a closer (he has performed better as a setup guy throughout his career) would be a colossal mistake.

This team isn't going to contend this year and I'm guessing if you put James Hoey or someone of that ilk in that spot that he wouldn't perform much worse (if at all.)

I'll have to agree with Roch's post yesterday that this simply won't happen. I just can't imagine it.

*****

The Atlanta Braves have announced that they are moving their AAA affiliate Richmond Braves to a new stadium in Gwinnett County (GA) and will begin playing there in 2009. Why is this Oriole news? Because the AAA Braves are in the same league, the International League, as the Norfolk Tides. That means that the AAA club of the Baltimore Orioles will play 5 times a year in a stadium less than an hour from my house.

Well, it was big Oriole news for me...

Some Preseason Predictions Revisited

Ah, December 2006. A more innocent time when I actually had hope of improvement for the 2007 version of the Baltimore Orioles. As I was just starting to blog about the O's, I started laying out some preseason predictions for various players which I now thought would be amusing to revisit.

December 27th, 2006:

Regarding a proposed Brian Roberts/Hayden Penn for Adam LaRoche/Marcus Giles trade:

"I like Brian Roberts a lot but in all honesty, Marcus Giles probably would have replaced his offensive numbers and defense and they are both the same age."

Oh, that's rich.

Roberts: .809 OPS
M. Giles: .621 OPS

A stinker of a prediction. That doesn't even take into account the 50 to 10 edge in stolen bases (with Roberts stealing at an 87% success rate...). Scuttling that deal may be the best thing Peter Angelos has ever done for this club.

Regarding Kevin Millar:

"I don't like him as a primary option at first base but for $2.75 million for one year, he will give you better production for less money than some of the free agents listed below."

One of the fee agents listed below was Aubrey Huff:

Millar: .785 OPS
Huff: .779 OPS

You wouldn't want to live on the difference but Millar did outperform the highly paid free agent at about 1/3 the salary. I'll stand by that statement. However...

Regarding Carlos Pena coming to the Orioles:

"Another one I don't get unless you can get him signed to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Maybe Terry Crowley can work some magic and turn him into a poor man's Richie Sexson but that's a real long shot at this point in his career."

I was clearly wrong about not wanting to give this guy a shot. The Devil Rays were able to turn him into a poor man's Richie Sexson. In fact, Richie Sexson's never had a season as good as Pena posted this year. In fact, if Pena had played for a winning team, he probably would get some serious MVP consideration. Baltimore could've had him...

December 29th, 2006

Re: David Newhan being let go.

"I liked Newhan as a utility man but even Jay Payton will be quite an upgrade in left."

Newhan: .573 OPS
Payton: .668 OPS

That's for 2007 and, yeah, Payton was an upgrade from what Newhan did for the Mets this year. But do you know what Newhan posted in 2006 for the O's? A .668 OPS. Andd to that the fact that Payton was more expensive and can't play the infield...maybe he would've been a better option for the Orioles.

Decemnber 30th, 2006

RE: Corey Patterson

"...he should be able to maintain his batting average in the .265-.275 range...I expect Patterson to at least approach his offensive numbers and continue to play a fantastic centerfield."

Patterson hit .269 for the year so I had that one right. However, even with his late season surge his offensive numbers were significantly down (OPS declined form .757 to .690) and his defense seems to have slipped a bit too. His Fielding Percentage was a bit higher but he didn't get to as many balls this year.

I hope the O's don't overpay for Patterson. He is a really interesting player to watch but he's really inconsistent and he'll never get much better than he is right now which means he will be an average centerfielder at best.

Il Buono, Il Brutto, Il Cattivo

Anybody get the reference?

So lets look at the good, the bad and the ugly from this past week.

30-3. Odd how most diehard Orioles fans laughed this off but many dopes in the national sports media actually read something into this. As if 30-3 is really indicative of what this team is about. (The Orioles are not a great team but we surely aren't Devil Rays bad...). Which is worse? 30-3 or 12-0 and 16-0 over two games (I'm looking at you guys in pinstripes...) It was a perfect storm and now it's over.

0-7 against the Twins? Sure, when Johann Santana's on the mound they're one of the best teams in baseball but without him are they really that much better? 0-7. And 2-4 against the Rangers. 30-3 doesn't bother me nearly as much as dropping that series.

The Baltimore Orioles' record now stands at 58-71 meaning they have to go 24-11 to close the season to hit .500. Guess what true believers? That ain't happenin'. So play the kids with abandon and keep the bullpen audition rolling.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
- Arab Proverb

Using this axiom, it is difficult for me to hate the Red Sox that much. I would rather anyone win the division than the Yankees and it's nice to see them finally falling off the pace and AL East title has officially slipped away from them. Now if Seattle (Or Detroit) can snatch the wild card away too...

Erik Bedard did not have a great outing but did finally take over the top spot for most strikeouts in Baltimore Oriole history on Sunday. He is now third in franchise history:

               Ks     Year
Rube Wadell   232     1908
Bobo Newsom   226     1938
Erik Bedard   221     2007
Mike Mussina  218     1997

With an average outing, Bedard should pass Bobo Newsom on Friday.

Congratulations to Kevin Millar for setting the club record for consecutive games reaching base that ended on Sunday. 52 games is pretty impressive, I don't care how you do it. His combination of patience and modest power has made him at least the third best Oriole at the plate this season.

The good news? Tampa Bay is up next.

There's a lot of talk about the Orioles' annual September swoon. This team is not going to go 4-32 to close the season. No way. But I don't think there's a lot of wins to be had when Garrett Olson and/or various AAA pitchers are getting a crack at teams. That's just the way it is.

An interesting article over at The HardballTimes about great platoons of the 60's and 70's. No surprise that Hank Bauer and Earl Weaver are featured as putting together some very effective platoons overt the years.

Barring a September tear by somebody, no Oriole will hit 20 homers this year, the first time that will have happened since 2001. What is so shocking to me is that when I looked up and down the lineup in Spring Training, there was no pure 30+ HR slugger but a bunch of guys who could have reasonably hit 20:

Miguel Tejada
Melvin Mora
Nick Markakis
Aubrey Huff
Ramon Hernandez
(a healthy) Jay Gibbons
Brian Roberts

Hell, you even figured Millar and Patterson to be good bets to hit at least 15 if they got enough at bats. Guess you never know...

Erik Bedard is Masterful...Again

Erik Bedard was dominant against the Rangers last night, striking out 11 and moving himself up in the Oriole record book.

Rube Wadell  238  1908
Bobo Newsom  226  1938
Erik Bedard  218  2007
Mike Mussina 218  2000
Mike Mussina 210  1996
 
 

How about that? Bedard struck out Adam Melheuse in the 4th to pull into 2nd in Oriole history and struck out Jarrod Saltalamacchia to tie the record in the 7th.

Now Bedard is chasing ghosts and has the all-time franchise record in his sights. And nobody seems to care.

Kevin Millar extended his streak of getting on base to 47 games. He has now pulled ahead of Cal Ripken for second and is just behind Ken Singleton (49) in club history. Not too shabby.

It's a great day for baseball. Let's play two!

The Case For Daniel Cabrera....

...was made pretty well last night. Even in his own flawed 5 BB, 3 K in 7 IP performance he showed the kind of talent he has to pitch around those mistakes. The Devil Rays may stink but they are a very good offensive team and D-Cab shut them down. I hate to sound like a broken record but I have to with all the "trade Cabrera now" sentiment. The O's are not exactly awash in proven major league starters. We can afford to wait Cabrera out awhile longer. Don't trade him!


The Answer?

I think Mark Texiera is a very good hitter and this point is probably moot since teams with much more to offer in trade are wooing Texas for his services, teams that will greatly overshadow anything Baltimore will be able to offer.

But what is the fascination with a guy who would maybe hit 30 HR this year (if he had been healthy all year), a guy who for his career (and this year actually) has hit .265 away from hitter-friendly Arlington Stadium and a power guy who will go weeks at a time without going deep? Are O's fans so beaten down that they want just anybody who mentions they would like to play here?

He's good, not great and certainly not worth Baltimore mortgaging the future for.


Let's Cowboy Up...

Speaking of guys who want to stay here, I hope the team keeps Kevin Millar. The pluses: he really seems to want to be here, he has been one of the top hitters for the team all year and for the production he gives you, he's dirt cheap. Obviously, if a team gets desperate and bowls you over with a nice prospect or younger MLB regular, you take it but I'm still holding out hope that he remains.


Guys Who May Be Traded

Steve Trachsel - Get what you can for him. He's pitched well for us this year and that was a bonus in itself. Get bodies for the minors and let Steve pitch for a contender.

Miguel Tejada - I'd like to keep him but if you get the right offer for him, you have to take it. I'm not a fan of just dumping him but if you can get good value you pull the trigger.

Jay Gibbons - Even though he has hit better lately, nobody will want this guy. Still, if somebody bites, you send him on his way. I have serious doubts that he will return to form over the long haul.

Back In Town...

OK, no more travel for the foreseeable future. In the last 5 weeks I've been in 15 states! Anyway, on to the O's...

So on Monday, I was at a Durham Bulls game (in Durham...against the Toledo Mudhens...how cool was that?) when I noticed that there was a guy playing for the Bulls named Chris Richard. Hmmm...checking my program I found that it was indeed that Chris Richard, the one who played for the O's in 2001 and hit 15 homers. (Wow, we could use some of that production now...) We traded Mike Timlin to St. Louis for him and then traded him to the Rockies a couple of years later for "Stumblin' " Jack Cust. Timlin's still pitching effectively for the Red Sox, Cust is now getting a second chance with the A's and Richard has been battling injuries and playing in Oklahoma City and Indianapolis the last two years trying to get back to the majors. That night, Richard went 3-3 with a double and and 2 RBI batting cleanup for Durham and won that night's game MVP. Just one of the many reasons I love minor league baseball; you never know who you're going to get to see on a given night...

Who are the two best offense players for the O's? Brian Roberts is clearly the best but I wonder how many of you would pick Kevin Millar as number two? I will and he clearly is. He's OPSing .828 and despite having to split time with the struggling Jay Gibbons for most of the first two months, he's having a really nice year. Under Perlozzo, Millar produced but was banished to the 7 hole. (only when Sam got desperate in his last days did Kevin get as high as 5th in the batting order.) Dave Trembley has moved him up in the order and has been playing him more regularly to good results. This past week, Millar was hitting in the 3 or 4 slot exclusively. Yeah, it'd be nice to have a 30+ HR guy in one of those slots but part of being a good manager is knowing what you have and what you don't and maximizing the potential of your lineup. Here's to hoping Millar can continue to produce until some of these more heralded Baltimore bats wake up...

The O's have parted ways with Scott Williamson, presumably to give some of their young arms a look out of the 'pen. Williamson did a decent job this year when healthy and that was the real issue in letting him go. Good luck to Scott Williamson, I've always been a fan. I was working on a post about the bullpen and how the rest of the season will be open tryouts for next year and the O's have shown that that's the way they feel too. I'm all for giving the kids a shot, we have a lot of good young relievers in a farm system that seems bereft of anything else...

Congratulations to Brian Roberts for making the All-Star team. Outside of Roberts, the only O you could make an argument for was Jeremy Guthrie but there are too many AL starters having big years to get in the door for him. The irony here (on many levels) is that Roberts shouldn't even be here and we have Peter Angelos to thank. Here's how the other players the O's would've received for Roberts are doing so far:

Marcus Giles: .251, 4 HR, 7 SB, .668 OPS

Adam LaRoche: .235, 11 HR, 48 RBI, .741 OPS

Honestly, I would've made that trade before the start of this season. For once, Angelos made the right call...

Don't look now but the O's are 5-4 in their last nine games. Not earth-shattering but a marked improvement over the late-Perlozzo era. After tonight's game with Chicago, here are the upcoming series for July: at Texas, White Sox at home, at Seattle, at Oakland, Tampa Bay at home and Yankees at home. Outside of Oakland, there's not a team on the schedule that is not beatable. The schedule is setting up very favorably for Dave Trembley's job prospects...

Welcome to the majors Garrett Olson. We fans are happy to see you up, we need all the help we can get...

As I said last week, Daniel Cabrera needs to stay with Baltimore, even if this is the best he'll ever be but I still think he's just having a bit of an off year. All his peripheral numbers are in line or better than his career numbers except two: His homeruns allowed and his strikeout rate. He is giving up homers at a rate nearly twice what would be normal for him and is posting a strikeout rate that will be his lowest since 2004 (6.8/9 IP). His walks per 9 is at it's lowest rate of his career and he leads the team in innings pitched. I know it can be frustrating to watch him as a fan but I think any team could use a guy who can pitch 200 innings and be occasionally brilliant. That's enough reason to keep him. And I may be crazy but I just think he's a bit off this year and will be better next year. (I know, I know...)

Victory at Last

Jeremy Guthrie finally got some run support and shut down the Padres last night, striking out 9 and allowing a lone run.

I like Millar hitting 3rd in this lineup. He gets on base and has decent pop in his bat still. I think that could work in fron of Tejada.

Nick Markakis is hitting .306 for the month of June.

Brian Roberts is quietly putting together his best season since his monster 2005 campaign. The power numbers are not there but he's getting on-base at a .396 clip, hitting .306 and stealing bases at an 85% clip. It's not his fault the O's aren't scoring runs.

Joe Girardi could be named the O's skipper as early as today, more on that when and if it happens.

P.S. Melvin Mora is beginning to catch fire again...

Perlozzo is Wrong...

I saw this article referenced over at the Oriole Post (who was in turn tipped off by the guys at Roar From 34). Just wanted to point out a couple of things that make me feel better about Perlozzo getting fired:

The flaws in the team: "The flaw for me?" Perlozzo asked. "Baez going south and the offense. When Danys went bad it threw the team into the kilter, and we had to overexpose (other pitchers). The offense doesn't score enough to make up for any deficiencies. When you can't score five runs playing in the American League East, you've got problems.”

True, the offense is bad and that's not all Sam's fault. But the bullpen was overexposed well before Mr. Reluctant imploded and it was overexposed and overworked by Perlozzo and nobody else.

"Kevin Millar has a high on-base percentage, but doesn't hit home runs. Do you want me to start him on the bases? Check the on-base percentage and the runs scored. It doesn't jibe. We need three hits to get him in. You want me to start running Kevin Millar, Jay Gibbons and Aubrey Huff?”

Wow. Where do I start? Yes, Millar has the second highest OBP on the team. That's good. But he does hit homeruns. Outside of Melvin Mora, he has hit more homeruns per AB than anyone else on the team. The only reason he only has 6 at this point is due to lack of playing time...and that's Perlozzo's fault. And then he makes a not-so-veiled "Millar clogs up the bases" argument? It's Kevin's fault that no one can drive him in? Three hits to get him in? A double would do.

Bad reasoning Sam. See you later.

Can Anybody Hit One Over The Fence?

The O's are power deficient. While they don't have a premier slugger, they do have several guys who were expected to pop 20-25 HR and a couple that could maybe hit 25-30 HR. We're a little over a quarter way through the season and Melvin Mora and Nick Markakis are on pace to hit 19 apiece. Not too bad until you consider that this total would lead the team. Only Aubrey Huff and Kevin Millar would top 15. (Considering Millar's limited playing time, he has hit pretty well this season. He leads the team in HR per plate appearance and at-bat for at-bat has been the best Oriole run producer this year.) For the Twins this might be acceptable but not for the guys we have in this lineup.

Of course, homeruns aren't everything but the O's are an anemic slugging team overall, slugging sub-.400 which indicated they aren't "just missing" and stroking doubles instead. Unless you have a team full of Ichiros, Mark Graces and Tony Gwynns, having your sluggers hit in the teens for HR totals is not going to get it done.

Mazzone has done as well as could be expected this year given the injuries. The offense needs to pick up the slack.

Hit some out fellas. Please?