Three More Things I Learned from the Bill James Handbook

While we sit here and wait for Spring Training, here's some more tidbits I found while perusing the 2001 Bill Jame Handbook. These three factoids all concerned players who are no longer with the team, coincidentally.

1. Corey Patterson Has Some Value

At least as a fourth outfielder. For a guy who was plucked from the waiver wire and started his 2010 Oriole season in Norfolk, Corey Patterson had a successful season in Baltimore. The batting line was about what you would expect from him (.269/.315/.406) but he brought more than his bat to the table.

According to the Handbook, he was the best baserunner on the team, by a good margin, while only playing 90 games. He did well in every aspect, stealing 21 bases at an 84% rate, scored well above average in going 1st to 3rd, 2nd to Home, and 1st to Home and grounded into double plays only 3 times in 47 opportunities.

In addition, on John Dewan's +/- scale, he scored a +3 for his work in left and center and saved 4 defensive runs.

Patterson has moved on to Toronto and there really wasn't room for him in Baltimore but he's a good guy to have as your fourth outfielder. I'm sure he'll cause some headaches for Baltimore next season.

2. Ty Wigginton Doesn't Have As Much Value As You Might Think

According to the Handbook, the Orioles were 27th in baserunning last season. As a group, they lost 31 bases  compared to average baserunners. Ty Wigginton lost 21 of those bases by himself. Not only was he a poor base stealer, he grounded into a bunch of double plays and he was very poor at advancing on hits. Even Matt Wieters, as slow as he is, only scored -10.

He was also a poor fielder. He scored -8 in terms of Runs Saved and was just passable (+3 Runs Saved) at first base.

Given his .248/.312/.415 2010 batting line, it's hard to see what the Rockies liked so much about him when they gave him $8 million over the next two years. That could be an ugly little contract.

3. Really? That Guy?

The Handbook breaks down reliever performance and has a stat called Clean Outings which are outings when the reliever does not give up any runs or allow any inherited runners to score. The leader for the Oriole bullpen. Matt Albers with 34 Clean Outings. Matt Albers. Koji Uehara was second with 33 in many fewer appearance. I'm not sure that this doesn't say more about the poor bullpen than the effectiveness of Albers.

Corey Patterson

Corey Patterson has been, thankfully, relegated (mostly) back to the bench with the return of Felix Pie in late June. Patterson was a desprerate move and although he filled the hole in the outfield better than could have been expected, Patterson is not a starter, not even for a team as bad as the Orioles.

But I didn't come to run down Corey Patterson and point out his obvious deficiencies. I was to talk about Patterson's value as a bench player.

Patterson is not the same player that left Baltimore after the 2007 season. His hack-tastic ways are still evident but not nearly at the levels we have seen over his career.

            Swing%   K%    BB%   
Career       54.7   22.4  4.7
2010         51.3   23.3  6.9
  

He's swinging less and walking more. Again, this doesn't representa quantum leap forward but a very noticeable and real improvement. As a result, his wOBA sits at .347, second only to his impressive partial 2003 season.

He can steal you a base, serve as a pinch runner and can play all three outfield positions. I can't imagine there will be a lot of bidding for Patterson's services and there is no other outfielder in the minors knocking on the door to Baltimore*. Is it crazy to think that Patterson would make a useful 4th outfielder? If he comes at a reasonable price, this may not be the last you see of Corey Patterson.

* Yes, Nolan Reimold is in Norfolk but his future is at 1B/DH for this team. I'm not counting him.

Around The Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Meltdown Edition

Go get 'em, Wiggy!

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Dan at Camden Crazies makes me feel a bit better about Brian Matusz:

The 1.49 WHIP is high but most of that is all the hits he’s allowed (1.11 hits per inning pitched), and that’s based on a .332 Batting Average On Balls In Play that isn’t likely to continue at that level and has less to do with Matusz’s pitching than his defense and poor luck. Additionally, I’m not sure how a 123:54 strike-out to walk ratio is “clearly indicative of a problem”. At 2.27, it’s better than league average (~2.07), and his individual K and BB rates are also better than average.

And while he's at it, Dan give Stan "The Fan" Charles a good fisking and I can always get behind that.


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 Tony Pente's article at Oriole Hangout is up and pretty much sums up the failures of the Angelos regime over the past couple of decades.

I have to say that I was a bit disappointed. It all seemed like covered ground and it was kind of advertised as having new revelations. It was all lightly fleshed out items of whisperings I have heard before. But it is well written and makes for a one-stop shop for all things Angelos.

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Eutaw Street Hooligans express Oriole fandom in terms of Bill Withers.

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Camden Depot looks at the "mortgaged future" of 1996 and fisks and refutes some guy writing in Cumberland. Go crawdaddy.

Quick quote I wholeheartedly agree with:

I am certain it is true that this is a mind blowingly silly statement (especially after the writer already said the system was ignored for at least a decade prior to the deals in '96, which is very true).

 Word.

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Roar from 34 gives us the latest installment of Solo Shots, a series examining Oriole players who hit exactly one home run during their career, with a closer look at Bob Hale.

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The Loss Column knows that it is all about next year for the Orioles but wonders if 2011 will be a make ir break year for the MacPhail regime.

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Patrick Smith at Bugs & Cranks takes a swipe at ESPN's Mike Greenberg for taking a swipe at the Baltimore Orioles.

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Finally, rumor has it that the Orioles are fielding calls regarding OF Corey Patterson. Obviously, you move Patterson for anything that might resemble a viable future bullpen arm and count your blessings that you were able to sell high.

Roster Moves and Random Thoughts

OK, is everyone satisfied now? Luke Scott is hustling out of the box. Do you believe it now? And now he's hurt himself. Next time, I'll take the trot for the double.

Sure, I'm kidding. But the fact that Scott pulled a hamstring during a home run trot pretty much sums up the season, doesn't it? After a horrific April, Scott put up a line of .306/.376/.590 with 10 home runs over June and July. He was looking like a nice trading chip for the Orioles, now he'll be out for at least 2 weeks.

It was assumed by many that Felix Pie would be brought back from his rehab assignment a little early to take Scott's roster spot but instead they called up Norfolk 3B Josh Bell. The top hitting prospect in the minors, Bell is only hitting .265/.310/.453 in AAA but has been hitting better of late, hitting .269/.337/.495 in June. Expect Bell to struggle mightily; he strikes out a ton and doesn't walk much.

Bell may not be long for Baltimore though as Felix Pie is close to returning to action. With only three outfielders and a ton of infielders, Bell will probably get his taste and get sent down...barring a trade.

Pie will push Corey Patterson to the bench which is as it should be. But I have to say that Patterson, in his short time as a leadoff man...has kind of done a decent job. As a leadoff hitter, Corey has hit .295/.345/.423 with 12 stolen bases (vs. 2 time caught). That's decent. No, it can't possibly last but I have to tip my hat to him.

By the way, Matt Wieters is getting worse. His OPS by month in 2010 goes like this: .686, .663, .606. We need a new manager to perform triage on Wieters...stat!

Nolan Reimold Sent to Norfolk, Corey Patterson Recalled

(Sorry I've been away from the blog but I'm traveling for work and keeping long hours this week...back to regularly scheduled blogging next week.)

In a way, this is what you have to love about baseball. There's always a surprise. Nobody would've predicted this Oriole transaction back on April 6th.

Nolan Reimold, last season's rookie phenom, was sent back to AAA today after starting the season with a .205/.302/.337 line over 29 games. This represents a failure for the organization as they were too aggressive (or let Reimold be too aggressive) in bringing Nolan back from Achilles tendon surgery in the offseason. Reimold never looked quite right in Spring Training and instead of DHing him exclusively early in the season, they put him in the field far too often when it was apparent he wasn't ready. They should have DHed him exclusively in Spring Training, let him start the season on the 15-day DL, kept him in Sarasota for more rehab and let him come back in late April. Instead, he failed to recover in an adequate manner and is now being sent back to Norfolk. I guess you could call this Monday morning quaterbacking but I expressed this concern in the offseason.

All that said, at this point Reimold should have stayed. He's not hitting for much power and not hitting the ball very hard at this point but he was hitting no worse than Luke Scott and the odds were that he was going to turn it around eventually. The O's cast the die with Reimold, now they should have stuck with him.

Compounding the move is the recall of Corey Patterson. Patterson was (and is) a superior defender but is an offensive black hole. But because he is fast, Dave Trembley will do stupid things like bat him leadoff. Like he did tonight. The first night Patterson was up with the big club.

The bright side? I don't think Reimold will be gone for long. If nothing else, he will force his way back to Baltimore in June and bump Lou Montanez back to AAA. It can't come a moment too soon.

Tides vs. G-Braves: 4/29/2010

It was a gorgeous spring evening in Lawrenceville, GA as the Tides took on the Gwinnett Braves. If only the promotion for the evening hadn't been a thunderstix giveaway, the evening would have been perfect. OK, maybe if the Tides had not lost 6-1, it would have been perfect.


Starting pitcher and top pitching prospect Jake Arrieta battled wildness during Thursday night's loss but was still able to turn in a quality start going 6 innings and giving up three earned runs, all on a three-run homer to G-Braves RF Mitch Jones.

Arrieta cruised for the first three innings, retiring 10 of the first 11 batters, surrendering only a walk to G-Braves 1B (and top prospect) Freddie Freeman. In the 4th, he then gave up a blooper to left center, a sharply hit grounder to right and the three-run Jones homer.

Arrieta was working deep into counts most of the night and walked 4 batters on the night but still had the stuff to pitch out of trouble and struck out 4 as well. His fastball sat at 89-91 but he hit 94 several times. He works under control, doesn't overthrow but can reach back for extra when he needs to. He mixed in a slider in the mid-80's and an occasional curveball in the high-70's.

Arrieta was visibly frustrated with his control at times. But really, Arrieta pitched OK. He only gave up two solid hits (the sharp grounder and three-run homer, both in the 4th inning) and was able to pitch around the walks and errors. Even with the loss, Arrieta has only a 1.16 ERA over 5 International League starts.

The offense was another story. G-Braves starter Chris Resop, a journeyman pitcher, was wild as well but managed to strike out 8 Tides batters over his 6 innings of work. The Tides twice loaded the bases on Resop as he walked five and threw a wild pitch but Resop was always able to work out of the jams with minimal damage. Tides 3B Scott Moore's RBI single in the 3rd was the only run allowed by Braves pitching.

More player notes:

SS Robert Andino - Whenever a player is sent back to the minors, you would like to think it won't affect his attitude. In Andino's case, it looks like it has. I am not normally one to jump on players for not trying or not hustling when they are playing poorly but Andino barely looked interested. He failed to run hard on a groundout to short even though he certainly had a fair chance of making it to first safely (if the throw wasn't perfect) and made no effort to throw to first to complete a double-play later in the game. Both those plays were makeable but Andino just didn't make the extra effort. (OF Jeff Salazar, in stark contrast, ran hard on similar groundball to short.) He misplayed a flare that dropped for a hit in the 4th and made a throwing error in the 8th that seem to be extensions of the general lack of focus on defense that he displayed in Spring Training. It's just one game but I don't want to see him back in Baltimore. I'm not sure I even want to see him in Norfolk.

C Adam Donachie - Long time readers know that I have liked Donachie ever since the Orioles picked him in the Rule 5 draft in 2007. He didn't stick with the team that time but was signed by the O's later on. He works hard behind the plate, seems to have a good rapport with the pitchers and, on the rare occasion that he hits the ball, hits it hard. Donachie will never be a good major league starter but I think he could be a very good backup, a defense-first backstop with some power. I don't think he would be any worse than Craig Tatum and Tatum has found major league work.

1B Brandon Snyder - Snyder has not had a great start at Norfolk but it doesn't seem to be making him desperate. His approach is still good, he works the count and drew three walks on Thursday.

OF Corey Patterson - For the first time since the end of 2007, Patterson is back in the Oriole organization. He's not hitting much so far but was playing his signature stellar defense in rightfield last night and made3 a nice play on a foul ball down the rightfield line.

RP Pedro Viola - It's easy to see why the Orioles took a flyer on Pedro Viola and claimed him off waivers from the Reds earlier this month. The lefty reliever's fastball was sitting at 92-94 and hitting 97 on a regular basis. That kind of left arm doesn't grow on trees. Unfortunately, he didn't know where it was going last night as he gave up 2 hits, a walk and a run in just one inning pitched. If they can get him straightened out, he'll be nasty. When that fastball is over the plate, nobody can hit it.

Patterson to Return?

According to a story in the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles have some interest in bringing back Corey Patterson.

As the free agency period winds down, Patterson has found himself still waiting for an offer and the Orioles have found themselves still needing a centerfielder. (Chris Roberson? Really?) I have always been in favor of bringing back Patterson...at the right price. Unless Erik Bedard is traded soon, there is no other viable option currently on the roster.

Patterson is not a great offensive player but he would be at least one of the top three defensive outfielders in the AL and is an outstanding baserunner. If this team is looking to build on pitching and defense, Patterson isn't a bad choice.

Funny how so many O's fans ridicule the good glove-not much bat style of Patterson but are more than happy for the same formula from Luis Hernandez at short.

As long as it is a short contract at less than $5 million per year, it's a good price to pay.

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Trade rumors for Erik Bedard are heating up again. Stay tuned...

Winter Meetings

Am I crazy to think these might be the most significant set of Winter Meetings for this club in more than 10 years? I hope I'm right.

Jaret Wright and Kris Benson were not offered arbitration, as expected. Some people thought Corey Patterson and Paul Bako might be but they were not offered arbitration either. Corey Patterson was a possibility since Dave Trembley values his defense and his baserunning prowess but Patterson would have received a high salary for one year, I would estimate somewhere in the $7-9 million range. Think that's crazy? Look at his numbers compared to Gary Matthews Jr. who make considerably more. That number would not be in line with his true market value. Expect the O's to pursue Patterson but not to get in a bidding war for him.

Baltimore shouldn't be offering Paul Bako a hand of friendship let alone arbitration but there are hints in the press that Bako may be back next season. Aaaaagh! I won't believe it, I refuse to believe it...

BTW, none of these fellows ranked high enough to garner Baltimore any draft picks had they offered them arbitration so nothing lost.

Some Preseason Predictions Revisited

Ah, December 2006. A more innocent time when I actually had hope of improvement for the 2007 version of the Baltimore Orioles. As I was just starting to blog about the O's, I started laying out some preseason predictions for various players which I now thought would be amusing to revisit.

December 27th, 2006:

Regarding a proposed Brian Roberts/Hayden Penn for Adam LaRoche/Marcus Giles trade:

"I like Brian Roberts a lot but in all honesty, Marcus Giles probably would have replaced his offensive numbers and defense and they are both the same age."

Oh, that's rich.

Roberts: .809 OPS
M. Giles: .621 OPS

A stinker of a prediction. That doesn't even take into account the 50 to 10 edge in stolen bases (with Roberts stealing at an 87% success rate...). Scuttling that deal may be the best thing Peter Angelos has ever done for this club.

Regarding Kevin Millar:

"I don't like him as a primary option at first base but for $2.75 million for one year, he will give you better production for less money than some of the free agents listed below."

One of the fee agents listed below was Aubrey Huff:

Millar: .785 OPS
Huff: .779 OPS

You wouldn't want to live on the difference but Millar did outperform the highly paid free agent at about 1/3 the salary. I'll stand by that statement. However...

Regarding Carlos Pena coming to the Orioles:

"Another one I don't get unless you can get him signed to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Maybe Terry Crowley can work some magic and turn him into a poor man's Richie Sexson but that's a real long shot at this point in his career."

I was clearly wrong about not wanting to give this guy a shot. The Devil Rays were able to turn him into a poor man's Richie Sexson. In fact, Richie Sexson's never had a season as good as Pena posted this year. In fact, if Pena had played for a winning team, he probably would get some serious MVP consideration. Baltimore could've had him...

December 29th, 2006

Re: David Newhan being let go.

"I liked Newhan as a utility man but even Jay Payton will be quite an upgrade in left."

Newhan: .573 OPS
Payton: .668 OPS

That's for 2007 and, yeah, Payton was an upgrade from what Newhan did for the Mets this year. But do you know what Newhan posted in 2006 for the O's? A .668 OPS. Andd to that the fact that Payton was more expensive and can't play the infield...maybe he would've been a better option for the Orioles.

Decemnber 30th, 2006

RE: Corey Patterson

"...he should be able to maintain his batting average in the .265-.275 range...I expect Patterson to at least approach his offensive numbers and continue to play a fantastic centerfield."

Patterson hit .269 for the year so I had that one right. However, even with his late season surge his offensive numbers were significantly down (OPS declined form .757 to .690) and his defense seems to have slipped a bit too. His Fielding Percentage was a bit higher but he didn't get to as many balls this year.

I hope the O's don't overpay for Patterson. He is a really interesting player to watch but he's really inconsistent and he'll never get much better than he is right now which means he will be an average centerfielder at best.

Thoughts on The Win at Fenway

Hey everybody! You're reading a blog about the hottest team in the American League! The Baltimore Frigging Orioles!

Well, this didn't turn out to be the pitcher's duel we all had anticipated, not in the traditional sense anyway. Neither pitcher had their best stuff but both battled mightily to keep their team in the game, both pitching out of jams on multiple occasions. Erik Bedard surrendered but 2 runs but ran his pitch count so high he lasted just 6 innings. Josh Beckett gave up 5 runs but kept the pitch count down low enough to get through 8.

Did you see that catch by Nick Markakis to retire Manny Ramirez in the 8th? He laid out three rows deep in the rightfield bleachers and snatched the ball away from a dozen reaching Red Sox fans. I can't remember a better play made in the outfield this season (yes, including Corey Patterson's catch in the 1st) and it's right up there with any of the defensive plays Baltimore has made this year.

I don't want to second guess a winning manager like Trembley but...why try to have Patterson steal third with two outs? Not sure what payoff you have for taking that risk. With two outs, Patterson is going on anything and will surely score on any base hit. And with men on first and second with no outs in the ninth, why not let Jay Payton (2-3 at that point) swing away and try for a big inning? Instead, you gave the Sox a free out and didn't even move up the runners. We won but those calls were questionable.

Taking the interim tag off of Dave Trembley is a good idea because:

1) He has won with the same club (and more injuries) that Perlozzo was tanking with
2) If the team goes in the toilet for the rest of the season, you can still fire him
3) There's really no one better available right now anyway

Congratulations to Dave Trembley, it's nice to have a manager who manages what he has, not what he hasn't.

Photo Courtesy of the AP

Devil Ray Love

You've got to love it when the Devil Rays come to town. First, it's good for a win streak almost every time. The O's are probably the hottest team in the AL behind the Yankees and the Rays make it so easy to win that you have to give them partial credit for both teams recent good fortune. Second, it makes you feel better that there are ballclubs out there that are in even worse shape than ours. Of course, you all saw Carl Crawford and Brendan Harris botch an easy popup that should've been the third out and instead it became two runs and allowed Jay Payton to plate another in the next at bat. Oh, to be a Rays fan. I can't imagine it.

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Erik Bedard was not overly sharp last night (lots of hard hit balls right at fielders) but it shows his talent that he was able to dominate the boxscore without having his best stuff. The Orioles should lock his up ASAP. With a little luck in the win column, Bedard may be in serious consideration for the AL Cy Young.

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He's not there yet but...if Corey Patterson continues to hit well, he could give the O's a hard choice to make when he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. Two weeks ago this was a no-brainer; let him walk unless he would return for a dirt-cheap incentive-laden contract. But now he looks like he is returning to last year's form.

Is part of that resurgence due to hitting second? Trembley toyed with Patterson in that role for a couple weeks (BTW, Perlozzo never did...) but (as I had hoped) Corey has been a fixture in the 2 hole for the last week with good results. Patterson is hitting .347 when batting second this season.

Another weird thing is that as Patterson has gotten less patient, his production has gone up. After his terrible May he has walked only 4 times and raised his batting average a full 60 points. Maybe he's one of the rare hitters who markedly improves when he gets outrageously aggressive at the plate?

Patterson is an enigma and unique among major league regulars. Win or lose, I am fascinated by this guy's game.

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Luis Hernandez handles the bat better than I expected and is not too shabby with the glove either. Could he be a potential utility infielder when/if the O's part ways with Chris Gomez after this season?

Speaking of future utilitymen, Brandon Fahey gets the start at SS this afternoon.

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The good news about Chris Ray going on the DL is that we get a longer look at Norfolk closer Cory Doyne against big league bats. The rest of the season is open auditions for next year's pen.

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Steve Trachsel makes what may be his final start in an Oriole uniform this afternoon. Good luck against that lineup, Steve!

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On a non-Baltimore related note: Does anybody remember Rick Ankiel? The 21 year old Cardinal pitcher who imploded in the 2000 NLDS and never regained his control? Well, he finally gave up pitching, switched to the outfield in the Cards minor league system and up to this point has hit .272 with 29 HR's for AAA Memphis! At 28, he's a heartbeat away from making it back to the bigs as a power hitting corner outfielder. Who says this isn't the greatest game in the world?

Odds and Ends...

The Strange Case of Corey Patterson

Corey has really turned it around in July. He has been red hot (.368 batting average this month) after being just as cold as can be for the first half of the season. It's only been seven games but since Trembly has tried Patterson as the #2 hitter he is hitting .357 and OPSing .821. Much like the Millar as cleanup hitter experiment, I hope Trembley leaves him there until he plays his way out of the role.

But the strangest thing about Patterson's performance is his turnaround against left handed pitching. He has hit .242 for his career against lefties but has worn them out this year at a .344 clip! That would be great if he suddenly hadn't forgotten to hit righties (.262 for his career, .218 this season, even after his recent hot streak). I have never seen this kind of turnaround in an established player.

Leave Huff At Home

Aubrey is hitting .294 and slugging .447 at Camden Yards and hitting .220 and slugging .327 on the road. The solution? Sit him on the road. Nothing else seems to be working.

If Paul Bako wasn't so horrible with a bat, I'd suggest the same thing for Ramon Hernandez (.806 OPS at home, .638 OPS on the road)...

Send Up A Mannequin Instead

Paul Bako would be a much more fearsome hitter if he never swung his bat. He only sees 3.4 pitches per plate appearance, the lowest on the team outside of Corey Patterson and Jay Payton but at least those guys have some offensive skills to offer by swinging the bat. Sitting there like a pitcher and letting three balls go by is hardly worse. Better yet Paul, anything that looks like it's going to be in the strike zone, foul it off. Just don't swing or swing to foul it off. At least you'll be there to piss off the opposing pitcher and in some small way help wear him down.

And I want to hear no more about his defensive prowess. Opponents have stolen 17 bases off of him and he has caught only 4 good for only a 19% kill rate. Only 6 catchers in the majors have more passed balls than him...and they're all regulars! He's terrible. Would it really be so bad for J.R. House or even Eli Whiteside to sit back there once a week? Alberto Castillo would be a better choice. One of the worst signings this team has ever made.

Speaking of J.R. House...

Hey, O's! The season is lost outside of playing for pride. Let's see what some of the kids can do. Is Paul Bako really in your plans for next season? Let's get House up her and see how he does. House's line in Norfolk: .307/.366/.461. He's can't be worse than what we have as a backup catcher. Jon Knott's up but maybe we could throw him out in left everyday and see what happens. Maybe we could see if Adam Stern can hit with Patterson probably out the door after the season? And let's play Brandon Fahey out there everyday to see if he can really play. (I don't think he can but at least we'd know for sure.)

Dave Trembley's playing for his job so I doubt this will happen...

5 Keys To The Season Revisited: July

OK, the second half has officially begun. let's see if the O's were able to meet any of their preseason goal, arbitrarily assigned by Yours Truly.

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season.

Team ERA as of today: 4.46. The target: 4.35. Leo Mazzone has done wonders patching together a starting rotation at this point but even some of those smoke and mirrors are wearing off. If not for the enormous bullpen struggles, Baltimore might be exceeding this goal but as it is, they haven't improved enough to contend, even before calculating in the woeful offense.

2. Markakis hits 25.

He's only 23. He's only 23. He's only 23....

I have to keep telling myself that. Nick's having a fine year for a player of his experience but it's easy to get a bit impatient when you see the talent he flashes. He's "only" slugging .435 while I was hoping for something north of .450 and he's only on pace for 16 HR on a team that could sorely use more power. His average, slugging and on-base percentage are all down from last year but I keep telling myself....He's only 23. He's only 23. He's only 23...

3. Increased production from LF

Our leftfielders are OPSing .640, hitting .248 with 2 homeruns. It's worse than last year and I didn't think that was possible.

How bad is it? We would get the same production if we put Jerry Hairston, Jr. out there full time! Or Howie Clark. Or Abraham Nunez.

The CF position is even worse (OPS of .627). Corey Patterson needs to go and since he's already under contract, put Jay Payton in center.

Again, outside of Markakis, the outfield is an offensive black hole.

4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005.

Mora has been better than last year (especially in power production) but well short of his 2005 numbers. In fact, his OPS is almost exactly in the middle of his 2005 and 2006 numbers. These aren't bad numbers but they aren't the numbers we would expect from Mora. At 35, this is probably what we can expect from him for the rest of the contract.

5. Health

We haven't had it. Case closed.

So at this point in the season, none of these goals that the O's could have reasonably hit, have been met.

Sigh.

O's Defeat The Evil Empire...Despite Themselves

I'll take the win. A win over the Yankees in any capacity is great and should be celebrated.

After getting Patterson and Roberts on with no outs in the ninth, Chris Gomez popped out on a bunt attempt. With the bases loaded and 1 out, Ramon Hernandez was hit by a pitch and the ump blew the call. The ball went to the backstop and if Corey Patterson had simply hauled ass home, the game would have been over anyway but he remained on third. Hernandez worked the count full and Scott Proctor walked in the winning run for the 3-2 win.

And I understand bringing along a young pitcher slowly. Overworking young arms leads to injury. But can't we let Jeremy Guthrie try to pitch through the 7th inning? I think he can do it. Anyway...

Guthrie looked great again, he struck out 6 and only made one mistake to Johnny Damon, the two-run homer, that cost him yet another decision.

Why is Jay Gibbons pinch hitting for anybody these days?

Next up is Bedard vs. Clemens. Clemens has been shaky since his return, hopefully this continues but a great pitching duel appears to be coming up tonight.

O's Complete The Sweep

I don't care if it is the Devil Rays, any sweep over an opponent in the AL East is a big deal. The O's have won 5 of 7 as they head to Boston for a weekend series.

The bats have been waking up just in time. Corey Patterson is now hitting .286 for the the month after a slow start in April. And don't look now but Jay Gibbons is hitting .294 and OPSing a fat .929 in his limited playing time in May. I know Jay's bitter about lack of playing time but hopefully he learns that he's part of a three or four man rotation in the LF/DH role. He can still be very valuable playing 125 games for is this year. Aubrey Huff is crushing the ball since May Day as well, at a .361 clip while OPSing .895. If this kind of production keeps up, Baltimore will be able to play with anybody.

Look at the matchups for this weekend in Boston:

Burres vs. Tavarez
Trachsel vs. Schilling
Guthrie vs. Beckett

Yikes. The Burres/Tavarez matchup really isn't bad, only Burres' being green makes it iffy. Really, tonight is the game we need to get, the other two are uphill battles before they throw the first pitch.

Has anybody seen Freddie Bynum? He appears to be missing but is still taking up a spot on the roster...

Random (and Troubling) Numbers for the Baltimore Orioles

OK, I pimped this fact when things were going well so I have to say it now. The O's were the hottest team in the AL not too long ago. The are now the coldest team in all of baseball! Yeesh.

So what's wrong? Plenty.

The Pitching

The pitching staff is greatly improved and leads the league in strikeouts but they also lead the league in walks. However, they are also the stingiest staff in the league (by a good margin) at giving up homeruns. Baltimore pitchers are actually pitching even better than their records and ERAs would suggest (except maybe Steve Trachsel and Adam Loewen).

The bullpen is good but is being terribly overworked. The games played projections for the "big 5" in the O's bullpen:

Baez - 81
Bradford - 92
Parrish - 81
Walker - 86
Ray - 81

Bradford's numbers would be the second highest total in the last 35 years. All the bullpen will be in the top 60 all-time for appearances if this keeps up. This will result in either reduced effectiveness or injuries before they get to these levels though.

The Lineup

The O's could be hitting better but they are 6th in the league in hits. The real problem is that they are 12th out of 14 in the league in slugging. They aren't getting enough extra base hits to score runs consistently. The O's OBP is not great either, no big surprise since the O's are not a patient team at the plate.

The bench mark for plate patience is pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). For reference, Johnny Damon leads AL regulars with 4.5 P/PA, Frank Thomas is at 4.0 and Vlad Guerrero (who is a freakishly great hitter but notoriously impatient) is at the bottom of the league at 3.2 P/PA.

The O's leaders in P/PA:

Millar 4.4
Roberts 4.2
Mora 4.1
Markakis 3.9
Hernandez 3.8
Gomez 3.7
Huff 3.6
Tejada 3.6
Gibbons 3.3
Patterson 3.2

No shock that Millar is the leader here and should probably be the starting DH/LF over Gibbons until he breaks out of his slump. Roberts and Mora come next with Markakis just outside the 4.0 threshold. Mora surprised me a bit because he swings a lot but I'm guessing he fouls off a lot of pitches.

Compared to the rest of the AL East? Boston has four regulars over 4.0 and only Mike Lowell is below 3.7. The Yanks have three over 4.0 but no one else exceeds 3.7. Only Frank Thomas is at 4.0 or above for the Jays and nobody on Tampa is over 4.0.

What does this mean? Who knows? It looks like the O's aren't nearly as impatient at the plate as I thought, especially compared to the rest of the division. The problem is not patience then but what they are doing to the ball once they get around to swinging.

Corey Patterson has been the most clutch Oriole this season. In addition to other feats he is hitting .364 with runners in scoring position. Nick Markakis, for all his late inning heroics, is only hitting .177 with RISP.

And finally, here's a graph that shows graphically how Baltimore has plummeted to Earth. They are represented by the blue dashed line.

Happy Thursday everybody!

Williamson to DL, O's Call Up...Johnson?

Raise your hand if you saw this guy getting the call. As I mentioned in last week's minor league wrapup, Jim Johnson has been the best pitcher at AAA this year. He has posted a 2.81 ERA with 13 Ks and 3BB in 16 innings.

As I've mentioned before, Todd Williams is never coming back under normal circumstances. Baltimore would have to be decimated by injuries for him to get the call.

Roch Kubato reports in his blog that Mora tried to signal Patterson three times before he bunted.

"That was my decision," Mora said. "That's the way I play baseball. I play to win. I play to surprise the other team. That's why I've been in the playoffs before, because I like to do the little things."

That's a copout. A) You need to make sure that Patterson understands before you lay down a bunt or B) lay down a decent enough bunt to give the guy a legitimate chance to score. Mora did neither.

And I love you Melvin but you went to the playoffs on a team that featured Mike Piazza, a young Mike Hampton, Al Leiter in his prime and a young Edgar Alfonso. Even your current teammate, Jay Payon, was a more important cog on that team than you.

And if that was a veiled dig at Corey Patterson, he was a major contributor on the 2003 Cubs team that went to the NLCS (even though he was injured by the end of the season.).

Battle of the Birds Part 1 - Speed Kills

Beer of the Game: Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale
(I must have had a premonition...)

I love this team.

What's not to love? (OK, except for Paul Bako...)

How about Corey Patterson robbing Lyle Overbay of a homerun in the first (an absolutely amazing play that had me leaping from the couch shouting at the TV screen and scaring the hell out of the dog) and then getting the clutch hit in the ninth to start the rally and score the winning run? How about Brian Roberts stealing two more bases tonight? How about Nick Markakis with yet another clutch hit? How about old man Millar taking a home run swing in the 8th and blooping a hit to left to tie the game? How about Melvin Mora jacking another one? And I don't know who this guy masquerading as Daniel Cabrera is but he struck out 7 while only walking 2! 2 walks! Leo Mazzone truly is a miracle worker.

This team comes back from the dead more times than Nosferatu. Oriole bats are the worst nightmare for opposing bullpens. And our bullpen is the worst nightmare for opposing batters. John Parrish is sick. He pitched lights out yet again.

Rick Dempsey's nephew was held to one hit.

Victor Zambrano my hairy butt. You think we're going to lose to that guy?

I'm going to keep repeating this until I see it said on Baseball Tonight. The Baltimore Orioles are the hottest team in the AL.

Get on the bandwagon O's fans. We're in it for the long haul this season.

Corey Patterson Can't Hit Lefites....Or Can He?

I am not a fan of the straight platoon. The general wisdom is that if a player's batting average is considerably worse against lefthand pitching, then he must be platooned with a player who excels at hitting lefties. I especially don't like this logic when an inferior player is given more playing time at the expense of a more talented one. This scenario is the one that Corey Patterson finds himself in.

Corey raked against righties last year, hitting .301 with 13 of his 16 homers. Against lefties, he hit an abysmal .207.

Sit him against lefties? Maybe. Patterson has shown a distinct weakness against lefties and certainly shouldn't be out there facing the like of Johan Santana. But what about Jimmy Gobble? Does he eat Patterson's lunch too?

I decided to find out.

The line is arbitrary but I divided the pitchers into two groups: Tough lefties and Lousy lefties. The general dividing line was a 4.00 ERA posted in 2006. If you were under that mark for 2006, you were a Tough lefty. If not, you were Lousy. Exceptions to the rule were pitchers who may have had an off year but are established front line lefties. (Randy Johnson, for example, was in the Tough leftie group, regardless of his 5.00 ERA last year.)

So, now splitting the split:

Patterson vs. Tough lefties: .155
Patterson vs. Lousy lefties: .296

I didn't calculate slugging percentage but most of his extra base hits came against the lousy lefties, as you might expect.

So the recipe for Patterson should be this; when Tom Glavine, Scott Kazmir or B.J. Ryan is on the mound, Corey rides the pine and Jay Payton takes his hacks. But if Casey Fossum, Jarrod Washburn or some mediocre lefthanded reliever comes into the game, let Patterson swing away.