Base Hits:1/14/2009

Peter Bernstein has done a study about how payroll correlates to winning for ESPN. The study looks at the most cost effective teams and the least cost effective teams since 1998. Not surprisingly, the Oakland A's come in first. Neither is it surprising that the Orioles were in last.

The Orioles averaged $100 million in payroll from 1998-2008, more than league average. They would be expected to average 83 wins per season at that level. Instead, they have averaged 72.

So the drought of winning seasons has little to do with an unwillingness to spend money (at the level they spend the Oriole should have fluked into a winning season at one point during the past 11 seasons) but the unwise spending of that money. Over the course of this losing streak, they have only been outspent by 9 teams.

Take comfort that the The Warehouse is trying something new...

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Couple of transactions:

O's sign RP Chris Ray to one-year deal.

Hopefully, Ray is coming back fully healthy. If so, expect him to reclaim the job as closer by the end of the year and George Sherrill goes back to a 7th inning or specialty role. Stronger bullpen, which will be needed given the question marks around the rotation.

O's sign INF Chris Gomez to a minor league deal.

I'm fine with a minor league deal for Gomez but many fans seem to believe he's going to make the team. That would be a brutal situation.

Assuming the O's carry 13 pitchers, that leaves this list for the position players:

RF Markakis
CF Jones
LF Scott
OF Montanez/Reimold
1B Salazar
2B Roberts
3B Mora
SS Izturis
Util Freel
C Zaun
C Moeller/Wieters

That's eleven, leaving one spot open. The Orioles are still looking for DH/1B help so if they bring somebody in that leaves Oscar Salazar, Chris Gomez, Donnie Murphy and Scott Moore to battle for the last spot on the bench.

We already have a utility guy (Freel) and there is no reason to have a defensive specialist behind a great defender like Izturis. I'd rather see the spot go to one of the younger guys with some more pop (Salazar or Moore) coming off the bench. Their potential production will help fill bigger holes for the Orioles than Gomez will. Let's face it, the Orioles will need more help on the corners than up the middle this season. My two cents.

Gregg Zaun rumored to be close to agreement with Baltimore.

I wholeheartedly welcome Rick Dempsey's nephew back to the team. I thought Baltimore should have brought him back earlier in his career (before he signed with the Blue Jays) but better late than never. He'll be a great placeholder for Matt Wieters and can hit well enough to DH every now and then. Good news if it's true.

Oh, and he'll bring his Z-Game. Anyone who can combine Zorro and Rush is OK in my book.

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Orioles Spring Training Relocation Caravan Update: Apparently, Fort Myers is now in the mix too...

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Jay Gibbons signed a minor league deal with the Florida Marlins. Am I crazy to think he could actually help that team? Good luck, Jay.

Base Hits: 7/22/2008

Just to catch up on a few items here...


First, I am bummed that Freddie Bynum is no longer a Baltimore Oriole. Especially to make room for a player the caliber of Juan Castro.


The stathead side of me knows that Bynum is not helping the cause at all. The rabid baseball fan in me says that one day, if he just gets a chance, he just might be a good player.


Dempsey's Army bids Bynum a fond farewell and wishes him the best of luck.


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Speaking of good luck, Jay Gibbons is reportedly close to signing a minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers.


First, I wish Gibbons good luck. I always thought he was a good guy. Second, if this is true Gibbons is incredibly lucky. I thought he'd have to hit better than .280 in independant baseball to get a sniff from a major league club.


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More good luck wishes go out to Adam Loewen who will be abandoning his career as a pitcher and pick up a bat.


Very sad to see Loewen's career end up like this. I know that he may come back as a good hitter since scouts were split on wether he was a hitting or pitching prospect coming out of college.


But there's a reason a story like Rick Ankiel is a story. It rarely happens. Hell, even a failed hitter like Brooks Kieschnick becoming a modestly successful relief pitcher was a novelty.


I hope he comes back but realistically, his big league career is over.


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I will take a split with the Tigers coming out of the All-Star break any day...


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You know, everyone talks about the Orioles' poor 1-15 ecord on Sundays but what about their great 10-4 record on Tuesdays? Do you think Shawn Marcum is shaking in his boots?


You also don't want to face the Orioles on Fridays (11-4), Saturdays (10-6) or Mondays (5-2). Maybe the O's could start a TGIF promotion for Fridays?

Base Hits: 6/19/2008

Oriole Magic is alive and well. Baltimore comes from behind again (only 1 run but still...) to win in extra innings. The Orioles now have 36 wins and 22 of them have been comeback wins.

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The offense is finally starting to heat up. June OPS's for major players:

              June OPS
Hernandez       .760
Millar          .811
Huff            .911
Roberts         .954
Bynum           .404
Mora            .794
Markakis       1.037
Jones           .796
Scott          1.222
Payton          .837
 

Outside of that sucking sound eminating from shortstop, these are all very encouraging trends. Especially for Adam Jones. I had such high hopes for Freddie Bynum though.

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I have nothing against Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada but it does make me happy that they wanted out of town and now are on teams that are worse than the Orioles. Of course, it's a Catch 22. We wouldn't be so good without the pieces we got in return for those guys. (Sarfate, Albers, Scott, Jones, Sherrill, etc.)

I have seen credible reports that the Mariners may try to move Bedard at the deadline in July. Wow. That was a really bad trade for them...

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Jay Gibbons has signed on with the Long Island Ducks of the Independent Atlantic League. Good luck to Jay, it's a long road back.

Jay joins fellow ex-Oriole Todd Williams as a Duck.

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God, I can't wait for the Orioles to face off against the Yankees and Sidney Ponson.

Base Hits: 6/11/2008

Steve Trachsel, for all intents and purposes, is gone. Trachsel was a placeholder until the youngsters were ready to take over so the bright side of all this is that The Warehouse must believe that there are enough arms in the system ready to take his place.

Trachsel had two very solid starts to begin the season but imploded immediately after and hasn't been effective since.

Later Steve. Thanks for netting us Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry from the Cubs (both of whom will still be good players for Baltimore, eventually.)

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As I type, Jim Palmer is having a chat on ESPN.com.

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Batters against Brian Burres:

1st PA in G: .787 OPS, 2nd PA in G: .794 OPS, 3rd PA in G: .834

Not to harp on this but send Brian Burres to the bullpen please. I like the guy but not as a starter. Time for Matt Albers to get a shot.

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Brian Roberts is quietly putting together a fantastic season. He's the best second baseman in the AL and arguably the best leadoff hitter in the major leagues. He makes Dustin Pedroia look like a punk. He is still going to bring back a nice haul at the trade deadline.

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I find this next item very sad. Jay Gibbons is begging for work. This is the letter he has written and submitted to every Major League club:


Writing this letter is both painful and humiliating.

I am young, healthy and determined. I have acknowledged and apologized for the mistake that I made and writing this letter should be proof enough that I have indeed suffered for my mistake.

I have faith and hope that some team will give me the chance to prove that I can not only be a productive player but also be a stellar member of their organization.

My faith in a second chance has inspired me to work harder than I have at any time in my life.

All I need is a chance -- any chance -- anywhere. I am more than willing to begin the process of proving that I can and will be a productive major league player by playing in the minor leagues.

At 31 years old, I have NO DOUBT that my best baseball is ahead of me.

I know that my agents at ACES have tried to land me an opportunity in the minor leagues but have been met with negative responses by each and every Organization.

I am not blind to the fact that I have made a mistake and that mistake has raised doubt about my character and ability. It is important that you know that my indiscretions, while regretful, were made in an effort to heal a nagging wrist injury.

I respectfully and humbly request that you grant me the chance to play for your organization.

I am so willing to prove myself as a player, and a person, that I will donate ALL of my minor league earnings to your Club's charity. In the event that I earn the right to play at the major league level, I will gladly donate a significant sum to that same charity.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sincerely,
Jay Gibbons

The guy is offering to work FOR FREE! I wish Jay the best of luck with his efforts to continue his career. He may really be done but you'd think some team would take a flier on him. When you look at some of the human flotsam on AAA rosters, Gibbons compares quite favorably.

I can't believe I'm saying this but I wouldn't even mind seeing him in Norfolk.

Good luck Jay. You were always a good guy in my eyes.

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By the way, the Orioles need to go 30-69 to reach the foregone conclusion of 100 losses. Stick it PECOTA!

Sweet Swings or Garbage Kings?

I was going to write a post as a farewell to Jay Gibbons similar to ones that I wrote about Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard. It was just to be a quick note to show the highlights of his Orioles career.

Unfortunately, highlight material was pretty lacking for Jay. What was his biggest moment? In 2002 he hit a solo shot off of Ugueth Urbina in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game against the Red Sox (a game that the O's would eventually lose in 15). That's it. A nice moment to be sure but there's no more like it.

I liked Jay Gibbons as a player. Excepting the injuries, I thought he was a useful player for a few years for the Orioles. (And he was a good guy...) But for a slugger, he had few moments when his contributions resulted in big plays that changed the course of the game. A lot of his extra base hits came during "garbage time".

Ben at Oriole Central got me thinking more about this when he posted an Ode to the Garbage Home Run and correctly identified Jay Gibbons as a man who did not have many big moments with the long ball during his major league career.

And all that got me thinking about a way to quantify that.

Now I have. It's a new stat called the Big Homer Index (BHI). I was going to call it the GHI (Garbage Homer Index) but the stat gets bigger as the "clutchness" of the homers increase. You'll see what I mean in a minute.

(For any of you who hate or love stats when it comes to baseball, understand that this is just for fun! It's completely unscientific and the numbers are based purely on my own preferences. Something created for diversion and discussion, nothing more.)

If you don't want to know how I established each player's index, scroll down until you see Jay Gibbons' name.

Each component is based on a percentage of each player's career home runs. This way, a marginal slugger who hit 100 home runs can be compared to a player who hit 400. Homers hit when the team is up by at least 3 runs or down by at least 4 runs count against the player. Also a high percentage of solo shots can count against the batter too. The average solo home run rate for the American League is typically just over 57% so any percentage above or below 58% (divided by 2) will count against or for the batter respectively.

Go ahead and tying home runs count for the batter as do walk-offs. Walk-offs count 8 times the value of the other types.

So the formula is:

((% Go-Ahead Homers)+(% Tying Homers)+((Game Ending Homers)*8)+((.58-(% of Solo Homers)/2) - (% Homers When 3+ Ahead) - (% Homers When 4+ Down)) * 1000 = BHI

I am so happy I will never have to try to explain that again...

Jay Gibbons - 121 Career Home Runs

Surprisingly, Jay doesn't have a huge percentage of his homers coming in "garbage time" (up by 3+ runs or 4+ runs down) but he clearly falls short when it comes to homers to tie the game or put the team ahead. Zero walk-off homers also hurts his case.

Jay hit solo shots at an almost 60% rate which didn't help his BHI either.

Gibbons lived in the middle. He hit a lot of solo homers when the score was 5-3 or 3-5. Contributions to be sure but nothing much in the clutch or in game changing situations.

BHI: 42

Cal Ripken - 431 Career Home Runs

A man with the flair for the dramatic, Cal gets a big boost from 4 walk-off home runs. Ripken had a larger percentage of homers during "garbage time" than Jay Gibbons but he also hit a much higher percentage or go ahead and tying homers during his career. He also hit fewer solo shots than the league average.

Put it all together and Cal laps Jay Gibbons as would be expected. These two numbers should give us a couple of nice reference points for future evaluations.

BHI: 197

The Truth Hurts...the White Sox!

Adam Jones. I call him The Truth. For one, he speaks it and for another...he just looks like The Truth on the ballfield.

Tonight he came through is the biggest of situations and had a walkoff single in the 10th driving in Kevin Millar for the winning run.

The O's are playing .500 ball over the past 6 games.

Anybody else sick of "Spanky" Huff yet? Could he come up smaller in big situations? According to Baseball-Reference.com, he's only hitting .125 in "clutch" situations and only .071 when the game is tied. Can't we unload this guy somewhere?

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I have to recommend a post from Oriole Central for the second straight day as Ben looks at the Orioles who hit "garbage homeruns" and correctly identifies Jay Gibbons as a guy who goes yard when it doesn't much matter to the outcome of the game.

I have to agree about Gibbons. I was going to (still am at some point) write a post about the five biggest hits of Gibbons career with the Orioles but was quite surprised to see how few dramatic moments Gibbons actually had to, say, Miguel Tejada. A slugger like Gibbons should make a little more impact on a game over the course of several years.

Anyway, Ben's post has given me an idea for a series on former O's and their clutch performances (or lack thereof). Look for more on that later.

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We are through 10% of the games. I decided to take a look at how hard our bullpen is being worked versus last season.

Walker 80 G, 43 IP
Bradford 70 G, 57 IP
Sherrill 60 G, 57 IP
Safarte, 60 G, 67 IP
Bierd, 50 G, 100 IP

Here's the pace the five main relievers were on when I blogged about the bullpen on May 3rd, 2007:

Baez - 81
Bradford - 91
Parrish - 81
Walker - 86
Ray - 81

I was afraid that the bullpen was on its way to burnout yet again but this year's pace looks to be a bit more sustainable.

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For this edition of Song of the Week, I'll be recommending three versions of one great song. Don't ever say you don't get your money's worth here at Dempsey's Army.

The song is called "Such Great Heights" originally written and performed by SubPop label band The Postal Service back in 2003.

Here it is:



Next, a live version of the song by the sporadically brilliant Ben Folds:



Finally, a way more laid back version by Iron and Wine.



Have a great weekend!


The Postal Service

Ben Folds

Iron and Wine

Random Thoughts......Holy Crap! Brian Got Traded!

Optimistic note of the day: The bullpen looked good yesterday. Matt Albers and Brian Burres shut down the Rays after they shelled Jeremy Guthrie. I still think Burres is better deployed out of the bullpen but I guess Dave Trambley will do that once he finds a better option.

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ESPN's Rob Neyer doesn't see us losing 100 games this year if only on the strength of our revamped outfield. He thinks we'll only lose about 95. Nice.

Also from Neyer regarding the Jay Gibbons situation:

What do you do with a bad contract? Unless some other team is feeling generous, you eat it. It's called a sunk cost, and if the Orioles really understand this basic principle, maybe there really is some hope for them.

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Alex Cintron has been signed to a minor league deal by Baltimore and will report to Norfolk. Nice low risk move which I called for last week. Luis Hernandez should be shanking in his cleats.

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Ummm....Brian Roberts just got traded. Guess I need to change my focus. More later but my initial reaction is we got a decent haul...

Opening Day is Here...

...and the Orioles front office actually appears competent.

While it appears that Luis Hernandez is still on the team (more on that later), the Orioles did the right thing yesterday and released Jay Gibbons.

Jay hasn't played 130 games in a season since 2005. Last season, he fell off the table as he hit only .230 with 6 HR over 84 games before getting hurt again. Injuries and poor performance had made him an albatross on a team that was desperate for offense over the last two seasons.

It was a no-brainer to hand the spot on the roster over to Scott Moore...except that I'm not the one who would have to eat almost $12 million in contract. Andy MacPhail:

"The decision was essentially down to two players and we made a baseball decision," he said. "I just didn't see where this was going to be productive, or in anyone's best interests going forward the way we're stacked up now. "

The beauty, the true beauty of all this is that the Orioles made the right decision when put in a tough spot. Scott Moore is obviously going to outperform Gibbons this year even if he struggles to adjust to major league pitching. But the question was whether or not Peter Angelos was going to eat the rest that contract. And he did.

"I hadn't reached any conclusions myself. I was wrestling with this one," said MacPhail, relaying an anecdote. "I was really, more than anything, to be honest with you, looking for advice. His advice was, 'You've got to do what you've got to do.' Those were the last words he left me with, and I took the position that this was what I think we have to do."

Quite refreshing that Mr. Angelos appeared ready to make a good baseball decision, even if it was going to hurt his wallet. Certainly a step in the right direction.

I am not a Jay Gibbons hater. I think he was a good guy (he was nice to my son so I thank him for that...) and if he could've stayed healthy he had the talent to be an above average corner outfielder in this league. I hope he is able to continue his career if he chooses to.

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So DirecTV was having a free preview of their "Sports Pack" this weekend and I got to watch a lot of MASN this weekend. (I live in Atlanta...) I Tivo'ed the Orioles/Nats game and what do I see in the 4th inning? Luis Hernandez making yet another fielding error! I was so mad I still haven't gone back to watch the rest of the game.

Somebody (I can't recall who) was making excuses for Hernandez on one of the MASN shows. I'm going to go back and get that ridiculous quote and post it here.

He's the starting shortstop for now. He has a clean slate with me for now. Let's see what happens.

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It's Opening Day baby! Beat those upstart (Devil) Rays!

Base Hits: 3/26/2008

The thing I love most about the list of Oriole blogs I present to the left of your computer screen is that nearly all of them write far better than I do. ("All of them actually write far better than you do.", I'm sure at least some of you are thinking...) Case in point, Enchanting Sunshine's post reminiscing about Opening Day in Baltimore from the unique perspective of growing up quite literally in the shadow of Memorial Stadium. It's nostalgic, beautiful and a must-read. And she even has the good sense to pair Sam Adams with that Esskay frank. Lovely.

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My head tells me to ignore Spring Training stats, at least as a rule. My heart has me wondering if Melvin Mora is about to have a revivial of his largely dormant skills at the plate.

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ESPN's Rob Neyer has put together a list of the top 50 players over the next 5 years. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones both made the list.

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I really hope that Roch is reading this wrong but it certainly appears that Jay Gibbons is going to bump somebody off of this team (perhaps Scott Moore) that really belongs here far more than he does.

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The Orioles need to go out and sign Alex Cintron and cut Luis Hernandez loose. Cintron has elected to become a free agent instead of accepting a minor league reassignment after not making the Cubs roster out of Spring Training. Cintron can still field well, plays SS, 2B and 3B and has a fair bat. He's an upgrade at short for now and can serve as a utility man once a better option is found.

Base Hits: 3/25/2008

Luis Hernandez made yet another throwing error in yesterday's game giving him 5 total for the spring.

Brandon Fahey is being handed a the job as the starting shortstop on a silver platter. Much like Hernandez, there is no way that Fahey would have a chance to start for any other team in the league. But the Warehouse traded away Miguel Tejada leaving a gaping hole in this organization at short. They have yet to trade Brian Roberts for any other shortstop prospect and Fahey is latching on to the job that Hernandez is (literally) throwing away (into the dugout).

Fahey has out-hit and out-fielded Hernandez this spring. Time to cut our losses with Hernadez and patch the hole with Fahey until someone better (Blake Davis?) comes along.

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An interesting read over at The Hardball Times as Sean Smith attempts to quantify the best defensive players since 1956. Obviously, many Baltimore Orioles are at the top of this list. (Including the assertion that Mark Belanger was a better defensive shortstop than Ozzie Smith.)

Then the Orioles caused problems for his system in other ways, through something he calls "the Jim Palmer problem".

The Orioles of the late 1960s and early 1970s had incredible defensive numbers. The teams allowed far fewer hits on balls in play than an average team. If we give all this credit to Brooks Robinson, Paul Blair, Mark Belanger and Bobby Grich, then we have to take some credit away from Palmer. Could it be that it was the other way around, that Palmer’s great pitching made those fielders look better by getting batters to hit into easy outs?

Turns out that Palmer was able to induce outs from balls put in play at a rate nearly unheard of by non-knuckleball pitchers. I'll let you sift through Sean's methods but it is fascinating to me and cool to see some of your favorite players showing up on all-time great lists.

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Gibbons Headed to Minor League Camp - I got really excited when I saw this headline but it turns out that the Orioles are just sending him there to workout during his suspension. Hopefully, he'll just stay there.

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As if any of us cared, Nestor Aparicio has decided he's going back to Camden Yards.

I want to make this clear: the Orioles are as shameful and as pathetic as they’ve ever been in virtually every department (from marketing to media relations to dealing with their employees to dealing with the business community and people in general) – it’s actually getting WORSE, not better -- but I’m going back to the games anyway.

Isn't this the guy who didn't know who George Sherrill was a couple of days ago? I wonder if old Nestor would be reversing course if Free The Birds II has gone well and gotten him some of his much craved publicity?

My detractors and those on Mr. Angelos’ extended payroll called me a charlatan and said it was a “publicity stunt.”

Well count me as one of those who consider you a charlatan. Actually, I called you a carnival barker. Somehow my check from Peter Angelos for writing this little blog has been lost in the mail.

Nestor is and remains a blowhard with paranoid delusions worthy of Richard Nixon. And he's an assclown.

Base Hits: 3/2/2008

I find this article in Sunday's Baltimore Sun fascinating! Great work, Jeff Zrebiec!

When I said the O's were going to have some real weapons in the outfield this year, I didn't mean actual real weapons! (badoon-bum-ching!)

A mugger's worst nightmare: jumping a group of guys in a dark alley and having them be Luke Scott, Jamie Walker and Nick Markakis.

Seriously, I have no problem with this. It's legal, it's fine with me. Must be the Libertarian streak in me.

Nor do I have an issue with his strong religious beliefs. For all the concern about religion causing issues in the clubhouse, it almost never happens. The only guy I can remember really causing issues in regards to his religion was an outfielder named Chad Curtis back in the 1990's.

Anyway, great article. A must read.

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A few thoughts on the games this weekend.

Spring training stats don't count for much but if you are Jay Gibbons you really don't want to get off to an 0-8 start with 3 strikeouts and no walks. Very poor.

Highlighting Gibbon's struggles in the versatility being shown by Scott Moore in the field and the hot bat he's been swinging. He's eating Jay's lunch at this point.

Is Brian Roberts ever going to stop running? Do you think he's trying to get traded or what? He's practically screaming, "Hey Lou, I'll steal 100 for you is you want!" Enjoy the showcase while it lasts...

One thing you can learn from Spring Training was demonstrated yesterday. I do expect the Orioles to blow leads late and have to rally if they expect to win. Lance Cormier surrendered a four run lead in the 9th. I have to say I saw this plenty over the last couple of years when he was with the Braves. He's very inconsistent and prone to getting shelled. And he's really not a good pitcher.

Should I be reading anything into the fact that Luis Terrero is getting a lot of at bats and playing well while Tike Redman is hardly playing at all?

Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey both made errors in yesterday's game. Crap.

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Troy Patton, I predict, is going to be done for the year. I know I'm going out on a limb here. No shock at this point.

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I am a total Daniel Cabrera apologist but even I don't care that he walked nobody during 3 innings of work on Saturday.

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You can't really beat Thomas Boswell as far as baseball writing goes and it's especially enjoyable when he highlights my team. But Tom, Baltimore got 10 players back from the Tejada/Bedard trades, not nine.

My respect for Dave Trembley grows the more I hear about him.

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Finally, a story on Matt Wieters from the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

Thoughts on the Thumping

I don't put a lot of stock in Spring Training results and nobody should. But it was diappointing to see very little positive on the field, let alone the box score, as the O's dropped their spring opener 16-3 to the Marlins.

Adam Loewen couldn't find the plate. Adam Jones couldn't run the bases. Ramon Hernandez couldn't field. Not good.

One of the bright spots was Brian Roberts (of course). The O's have scouts in Mesa, Arizona looking at the Cubs and the Cubs had some scouts at yesterdays game in Ft. Lauderdale. They didn't cross the continent for sheer amusement, I assure you.

Jay Gibbons got 3 AB yesterday before he was lifted in the 8th and is back in the starting lineup today. Make no mistake, the front office is going to give him a lot of at bats this spring to see if he has anything left or if they just want to eat the remainder of that bad contract.

Rocky Cherry pitched two scoreless innings and struck out two. Another bright spot.

Lots more to watch...hopefully some of it looks better than this.

Base Hits: 2/22/2008

Let's take a look at Sprting Training, shall we?

The best news I've seen come out of Spring Training has been the trimmer, healthier Ramon Hernandez. Great to see.

Not thrilled to see the injured, perhaps lost for the season, Troy Patton. It's nobody's fault but it still sucks. The race for the back of the rotation (and Steve Trachsel's chances to go north with the team) open up a lot now.

Good to see Brian Roberts back on the field. Get well, Brian!

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Keith Law conducted a chat on ESPN.com yesterday. He named Earl Weaver as the best tactical manager in baseball history. Also, he had this to say about Troy Patton:

steve (anaheim): Is Troy Patton done if he has a torn labrum or slap tear? Keep up the great work!

Keith Law: I wouldn't say done, but it's very bad news for Baltimore. Shoulder problems often lead to long-term velocity loss, and he can't afford that.

Eeesh.

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According to Roch, Jay Gibbons is crushing the ball and Mike Cuellar may come in to work with the pitchers.

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Speaking of Jay Gibbons, Weaver's Tantrum has a reflection on Jay Gibbons. It's brilliant.

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A bitter look back in time. Only bitter for O's fans though as Geoff Young takes a look back at the top Pacific Coast League prospects...from 1988. Guess who's number 3? Juan Bell. How many of you remember who Juan Bell was? Hard to remember how highly he was though of back then...

A fake prize to the person who can give me Juan's claim to fame in Oriole history.

The Gorilla In The Room

OK, get ready for the rant...

Up until now, I have avoided writing much about steroids in this blog outside of cursory mentions here and there. There are a lot of reasons for that.

First, I try to keep this blog very Oriole focused and so I would only think to address the issue if a current or former Baltimore player happened to be implicated or caught. To my chagrin, it's happened far more than I anticipated!

Secondly, I really don't care much about the subject. I know that players were using PEDs from roughly 1989-present and that there was no testing in place until 2004. I can live with that. I don't care who did it or who didn't because I don't believe we will ever know for sure. I believe it was so widespread that you can just slap that "Steroids Era" on the whole timeframe and be done with it.

You don't compare players against static records anyway. OK, a lot of people do but that's just silly. Was Pete Rose really a better hitter than Tony Gwynn because he has more hits? Maybe. The important thing is to look at a players career critically and not just the total stat. All the players who played in this time need to be compared to their peers whether you are looking at HOF credentials or just debating who was better than who. Thankfully, the thinking fan has those tools at his disposal.

What does this lead to? The cheapening of homerun totals for sure. Remember when 400 put you on the steps of Cooperstown and 500 was a slam dunk for induction? Kiss that goodbye. 400 doesn't even get you a sniff by itself. We will soon see guys with 500 on the outside looking in. All this is fine with me and I can live with it.

So I don't take it personally anymore when an Oriole or some other player I liked to root for gets caught or is implicated in a PED probe. The last time I felt that way was when Rafael Palmiero tested positive for steroids back in 2005. I wasn't particularly surprised that Jose Canseco's allegations about Palmiero turned out to be founded on some sort of fact. But when Raffy made that vehement denial in front of Congress and then got busted? Ouch. That told me that even the good guys (and Palmiero certainly was one of the good guys) were using and would lie, lie, lie to cover it up. Now everybody was under suspicion.

So why do I care about this Mitchell Report? Up to this point we have barely scratched the surface of this issue. The BALCO investigation brought out some names and there have been leaks here and there from the Jason Grimsley debacle and the HGH bust that netted Jay Gibbons, Gary Matthews Jr. and others. These are very isolated situations and very small, closed loops. But the names were in the press and many of these players were singled out and vilified.

Now the Mitchell Report has come along and revealed at least a couple more links in the chain. Former big league trainer Brian McNamee and former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski. Lots of names mentioned, some with more evidence against them than others, but it shows that the problem was a bit more pervasive than anyone really wanted to admit before.

Unfortunately, this report is still just scratching the surface. Do we really believe that there were no other trainers supplying PEDs during this time? There was an open market from MLB all the way down to the lowest levels of the minors and there was nothing stopping players from using. What about the notable missing names, the players who have been suspect in the past but have never been caught? Sammy Sosa, Brett Boone and others have been suspect in the court of public opinion for years. Where did Sammy get his stuff? Or Boone? Or Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Brady Anderson or scores of others who seemed to come out of nowhere to jack 35+ homers a season? Those who supplied the obvious "offenders" also supplied players who are not so obvious too. We've seen that in this report.

There is much more to be learned but we won't learn it anytime soon. Mitchell did not have subpoena power and could not compel anyone to cooperate if they didn't want to. Indeed, no active MLB player did. (more on that point later) The only hope that this report will really bring things to light in the near future is that Congress gets upset by the contents of the report and launches another investigation with real teeth behind it. It would be awesome. Subpoena power, taking statements under oath...that's where the real information will be spilled. Players (and others) who actually wanted to talk would now have an excuse to do so ("I was under oath buddy. I had no choice but to give up your name.") or be less compelled to cover it up since they would have much more to lose. Alas, this will probably not happen. The press seems happy to vilify Roger Clemens the same way they have vilified Bonds in recent years and not look much at the big picture.

On to the players, the commentary on the report by former players who are now baseball analysts was something I hadn't considered before but was one of the most telling parts of the day. As the report was being released, I was alternately amused and sickened listening to these former players continue to stonewall and hide their heads in the sand. On MLB.com, I had the displeasure of listening to Harold Reynolds, Eduardo Perez and Brian Mcrae all continue to either deny or diminish the severity of the problem during the 90's. Now I'll give Harold Reynolds a bit of a pass on this since he retired after the strike shortened 1994 season and most of his clubhouse experiences were in the 1980's. But Perez and Mcrae? Perez played from 1993-2006 and McRae played from 1990-1999. They were in clubhouses 162 games a year during the height of "The Steroids Era" but seemingly never heard or saw anything. When asked, they would reply with something like, "I had tunnel vision in the locker room. I just went about my business, played ball and went home." Later in the interview they would hilariously imply that the owners and management probably knew more about it than they let on.

One of the more extreme examples so far has been John Kruk who opined on ESPN last night that he didn't see what the big deal about this report was because "There's only three big names in this report!". Thankfully, Fire Joe Morgan printed a few more of his quotes:

You know -- most of this is all hearsay. You heard Roger Cossack say that this stuff wouldn't stand up in a court. The thing I keep hearing from Mitchell and from Bud Selig is this: "Now we move forward. Now we move forward." If you want to move forward, why do you bring up names from the past who have nothing to do with the game of baseball right now? Mo Vaughn, Lenny Dykstra, David Justice -- guys who aren't involved in the game anymore. Why bring up their names? If you want to clean the game up, clean the game up. Those guys aren't dirtying the game anymore. They're out of it. So leave 'em out of it and move forward and get the guys who are. But again -- why do you gotta name the names? What is the purpose of naming the names of these people? Is it to satisfy the public? Is it to satisfy themselves? Why drag 'em all through the mud? Let them go. You got 'em, you call 'em in separately, privately, and you say, "Here's what we got on you, now you talk." If they don't want to talk, then you can do something as far as suspension. But you -- you don't have to get out in the public with this.

And this gem:

But you can't prove that they took anything! Just because you have 'em doesn't mean you took 'em. Now, common sense tells you if you're purchasing them you're probably going to use 'em also, but -- if there's no drug test, no failed drug test, how can you suspend anyone by hearsay? I mean, that's like arresting someone at 12 o'clock in the afternoon, saying, "About a week ago, you had a couple drinks and you were driving, so we're going to arrest you now." You can't do it unless you prove it.

Genius.

There will be more of this over the next couple of weeks as the players' fraternity falls all over themselves to protect one another.

There was also Bud Selig's sanctimonious speech about taking action or some nonsense. I'm not sure how you can take action against players now for things they've done before these things were punishable by the league. Wrong way to go here.

There is no need for punishment, there should be no ramifications for Hall of Fame voting. Nothing. It's punishment enough for a player to be named. Simply bringing the stories into the light of day does far more for the game than any punishment ever could.

Some people out here in the blogosphere are making excuses for Brian Roberts (in my opinion) simply because he is a popular player and the evidence in the Mitchell Report is so flimsy against him. Admittedly, I would give Roberts a pass if he came out and strongly denied the claim.

Unfortunately, this isn't the first time Roberts has been implicated. His name also turned up on the Jason Grimsley affidavit (along with Miguel Tejada and Jay Gibbons...two players who had harder evidence turn up against them later).

And you can't ignore his spike in performance in 2005 given the other allegations. Here's a guy who never slugged .400 above rookie ball who suddenly slugs over .500 over the course of a full season in the majors and then continues to slug .400+ the last two years.

What does this whole long rant mean? I'm just frustrated. Not because I'm fretting about the sanctity of the record books, not because I'm concerned about competitive balance or because I fear the game has been besmirched. I already imagine the worst and it doesn't bother me. What does bother me is all the players, whether they used PEDs or not, will lie, concoct flimsy excuses and pretend none of this ever happened just to cover their asses or the assess of their buddies and peers.

I will continue to highlight that hypocrisy but hopefully I will have to discuss this no further for the foreseeable future.

Quick note...

"If Jay Gibbons is really that hurt, put him on the DL and bring up J.R House. House can flat out hit and he doesn't have a position either!" - Me, August 10th

J.R. House finally makes it to the big club after posting a .295 average and 10 homers at Norfolk. How much he'll play is anyone's guess but if Tike Redmond gets playing time, why not House?

Despite the loss, as an objective baseball fan, it was a good game last night. Guthrie didn't have it but the bullpen held and the batters scrapped their way back in, keeping it close and tying the game off of Mariano Rivera. Only a seeing-eye grounder sunk the O's last night.

I read this in Jonathan Mayo's Geeking on the Draft blog on MLB.com:

The Orioles and No. 5 pick Matt Wieters are not going to get a deal done by the deadline. Word is Wieters is looking for a huge bonus plus a Major League deal and it's a price tag that might prove to be too high for the O's to pay.

Now obviously this is all conjecture at this point but if Baltimore does not get this deal done it's going to spin me into a world of pissed off I've never experienced in my life. (to paraphrase Ron White...)

Sweet Victory

For a change, it's the O's coming from behind to win!





Two dramatic victories on Friday and Sunday capped a series win over the AL East leading Red Sox. Games like these are great on their own but are also fun for WPA graphs. Here's a couple. First, Friday's game. (I wonder if Red Sox fans are calling it the S'mores Day Massacre...)





The O's were dead to rights after the top of the 8th. Boston had given itself a 95% chance to win before the O's rallied to tie it up. (Thanks Eric Gagne...) Roberts and Mora delivered the big blows as far as WPA.



Now to Sunday...



Circumstances were not quite as dire but again in the bottom of the 8th the O's rally against Gagne to tie it up and win it in extras. As big as Millar's homer was, it was Tejada and Huff with the biggest clutch hitting of the game with Danys Baez getting the most crucial outs of the game.

The only negative of the series was that the Yankees have pulled within 4 games of the Red Sox with Baltimore's win. I don't care about the Red Sox but I've never been able to work up a good hatred for them like I have for the Yankees and Blue Jays, maybe because the Sox and O's haven't had title runs at the same time in the last 25 years. Outside of their annoying fatalism (at least from native New Englanders) I really have nothing against them. So Baltimore needs to smack down the Yankess over the next three days to even up the score...

Mora Flashes the Glove

Since he made a great play yesterday, I thought I'd check in with Melvin Mora's defensive prowess this year. He's second among AL thirdbasemen in Fielding Percentage, first in Range Factor and 5th in the league at reaching balls out of his zone, even with the lost time to injuries. Mora's fielding, if not his bat, has been a reason to watch the O's this season.

Gibbons Is Done

Mercifully, Jay Gibbon's 2007 season has been put out of its misery when the team put him on the DL for season ending shoulder surgery. While I guess it's a silver lining that some of his offensive woes could be due to injury, he certainly wasn't hitting before the May injury either. Jay will have to make a remarkable comeback and have a huge spring if he hopes to don the black and orange in 2008.

O's Defeat The Evil Empire...Despite Themselves

I'll take the win. A win over the Yankees in any capacity is great and should be celebrated.

After getting Patterson and Roberts on with no outs in the ninth, Chris Gomez popped out on a bunt attempt. With the bases loaded and 1 out, Ramon Hernandez was hit by a pitch and the ump blew the call. The ball went to the backstop and if Corey Patterson had simply hauled ass home, the game would have been over anyway but he remained on third. Hernandez worked the count full and Scott Proctor walked in the winning run for the 3-2 win.

And I understand bringing along a young pitcher slowly. Overworking young arms leads to injury. But can't we let Jeremy Guthrie try to pitch through the 7th inning? I think he can do it. Anyway...

Guthrie looked great again, he struck out 6 and only made one mistake to Johnny Damon, the two-run homer, that cost him yet another decision.

Why is Jay Gibbons pinch hitting for anybody these days?

Next up is Bedard vs. Clemens. Clemens has been shaky since his return, hopefully this continues but a great pitching duel appears to be coming up tonight.

Wither Jay Gibbons?

"Believe me, I understand getting booed."

- Jay Gibbons



He ought to. The fans have really given it to him this year. He has also seen his playing time diminish and Rick Dempsey has threatened to use "domestic violence" on him if he doesn't start hitting.

It's been really bad for Jay Gibbons this year. It's so bad that if Freddie Bynum got all Jay's at-bats, the lineup would be appreciably better. He's barely outhitting Paul Bako.

Jay has never been the most patient of hitters (I always thought that the propensity to take a few more walks would make him a pretty fearsome slugger) but he always had enough pop that I have defended him. A guy who can OPS in the .780's is valuable, right? Even if he doesn't start everyday, you'd have a hard time replacing that kind of production.

Those days are gone. Jay says he's healthy. But he still hit only .197 in April and .152 so far in June. I figured those would be career lows but as it turns out they aren't. Jay has hit sub-.200 for a month a few times before (I knew he was steaky but not that streaky.) so that leaves hope for a rebound in July. But...

The power outage that seems to be affecting most of the lineup this year has caught up with Jay too. Only 3 HR and slugging .320. If he was getting regular playing time, he would be on pace to set a career high in strikeouts.

Jay turned 30 this season and sometimes that spells the beginning of the end for marginal but useful sluggers like Gibbons. Anybody remember Rico Brogna, journeyman first baseman? Check out his career after 30. Another guy was 60's 1B-OF Lee Thomas. Scary similarites to Jay in their career trajectory and both players' production fell off the table after they hit 30.

Better get to hitting Jay, Rico Brogna is breathing down your neck....

O's Complete The Sweep

I don't care if it is the Devil Rays, any sweep over an opponent in the AL East is a big deal. The O's have won 5 of 7 as they head to Boston for a weekend series.

The bats have been waking up just in time. Corey Patterson is now hitting .286 for the the month after a slow start in April. And don't look now but Jay Gibbons is hitting .294 and OPSing a fat .929 in his limited playing time in May. I know Jay's bitter about lack of playing time but hopefully he learns that he's part of a three or four man rotation in the LF/DH role. He can still be very valuable playing 125 games for is this year. Aubrey Huff is crushing the ball since May Day as well, at a .361 clip while OPSing .895. If this kind of production keeps up, Baltimore will be able to play with anybody.

Look at the matchups for this weekend in Boston:

Burres vs. Tavarez
Trachsel vs. Schilling
Guthrie vs. Beckett

Yikes. The Burres/Tavarez matchup really isn't bad, only Burres' being green makes it iffy. Really, tonight is the game we need to get, the other two are uphill battles before they throw the first pitch.

Has anybody seen Freddie Bynum? He appears to be missing but is still taking up a spot on the roster...