New Post at MASNSports.com: Nolan Reimold and Other Delights

Hello all.

I am writing a weekly post for MASNSports.com again this year. This post is about Nolan Reimold (shocker!) and the benefits of giving him playing time. Enjoy!

2011 Oriole Predictions Revisited

Better late than never, I figured I would revisit my pre-season predicitons for 2011 for the Orioles. Here they are (were):


If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

Wow, I was really optimistic for 2011. Roberts did not play in 130 games, obviously. But the O's fell 7 wins short of my projections. I figured the pitching staff would struggle but not as much as it did. A top of the rotation that included Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton held much more promise than it delivered.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.


Dead wrong. Britton had his bright spots but Hellickson had a solid season (helped by the defensive team behind him) and is still one of the favorites for the award. Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer and others from a strong rookie class.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.


Jones hit .280/.319/.466 on the year. I predicted a .790 OPS, he OPS'ed .785. He broke out with the power more than with his hit tool (25 homers). But pretty close

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.


One of the few things I was really right on was the Reimold versus Guerrero debate. Reimold finished with a .781 OPS, Guerrero with a .733 OPS. Luke Scott only had a .703 OPS but if healthy, I think he would have hit somewhere north of a .750 OPS. I'm calling this one as correct.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Not really. Guthrie's FIP was 4.48 (xFIP was 4.47) and his actual ERA was 4.33.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

This seemed like a real no-brainer before the season but Nick didn't come close to that 40 double mark, only 31 this season. And he rallied for a .351 OBP late in the season. But I continue to have rose colored glasses when it comes to Nick. It was the worst offensive season of his career.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.


He hit 22 homers, had his best offensive year yet and became one of the top defensive catchers in baseball.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.


Not exactly. Even if healthy, I don't think Scott could have streaked his way to that number.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.


I had forgotten all about Josh Rupe until I reviewed this post. May 5th was his last appearance for Baltimore.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.


Injuries made this a near necessity in early April.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.


I'll vote no on this. On June 1st, Hardy was OPSing .730 with 3 homers. The rest of the way he OPSed .817 with 27 homers. He was winning hearts in June and July but not by June 1st.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.


This was definitely true through, oh, right about the All-Star break. But Albers' late season struggles gave him a 4.73 ERA (worse than his mark for the O's in 2010) and although his strikeout numbers improved, he just wasn't very good in Boston.

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson pitched 11 innings for the O's in 2011. Not. Even. Close.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.


Reynolds exceeded even my great expectations by hitting 37 homers but fell just short of the strikeout predicition with 196.

The Obligatory Nolan Reimold Post

Reimold in Norfolk...for the last time...

I haven't written about Nolan Reimold since his recall from Norfolk nearly two weeks ago which may seem odd since I kept the "Reimold in Exile" vigil on Twitter for 53 straight days.

Mostly, it's been because I had mixed feelings about the call up. Reimold was only called up due to injuries to other players and, after some struggles in AAA, Reimold was finally hitting his stride in Norfolk and I was afraid that he would ride the bench in Baltimore and not get enough at bats to help his development or help the team.

Those fears have turned out to be unfounded. Reimold has gotten plenty of ABs which is all I was wanting for the guy. Failure or success, I wanted Reimold to get his playing time in the majors. Not because he "deserved" it (which is such a nebulous concept anyway) but because it was best for the team to find out what he was and what he could be.

The fact that he has started so well is great. But mostly it's great that he is helping the team and it will help him get more playing time going forward. There is no vindication for me. Not yet.

(Of course, I think that even with the limited sample we have here, it is apparent that Reimold absolutely has the potential to be a good major leaguer. It was incredibly frustrating to see him dismissed by those who gave him absolutely no credit for 2009 but chose instead chose to judge him from 6 weeks of at bats in 2010. So I lied. There's a little vindication here.)

I mean, I saw how he played in 2009. I know he was not fully healthy last year. I know that a young hitter with good patience and good power has a fair shot at being successful in the major leagues. His .357/.455/.714 line through his first 10 games is not at all surprising to me. He's a good hitter. He won't hit like that all the time obviously but he's going to have stretches where he does.

I was just hoping he would get a good 400 plate appearances this season. I'm hoping the hit start will get him those chances and we can see how much (or little) he could help the team in 2012. When Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee are long gone.

Not So Fast, Nolan Reimold Detractors

A quick rebuttal to Stacey Long's post about Nolan Reimold over at Camden Chat and answering the question, "(H)as Reimold lived up to the justification" of the Reimold in Exile/Free Nolan Reimold sentiment.

Let me first address the terminology that Stacy uses.

...to prove himself at the minor league level before being handed a major league job....Nolan Reimold hasn't done anything to deserve a major league job.

We have to get past this concept of "handed" or "deserves" a major league roster spot. This isn't about merit or proving one's self. It's just not.

Reimold was and is a viable option in this lineup and can help the team. There is no need to make him earn anything. If you feel he can help the team, you give him a spot. (Conversely, if you don't, maybe you should shop him around...) He shouldn't have to break down the door. It's better for the team if he's playing in Baltimore.

Why is it better? It will be helpful to find out if Reimold can be a regular major league player. The only way to find out for sure...is to let him play in the majors. If he flames out, the team knows they need to find another option for next season through free agency. If he plays well, he's a low-cost solution in left (or at first base) and the team can spend money elsewhere to fill other holes in the roster (of which there are many). This team is not going to contend (or likely win) with the "veteran presence" they signed in the offseason. You might as will find out what you have in house.

But future considerations are not the only reason to let Nolan play. He could actually help the team now. More than the current options on the roster.

It is no secret that I was against the Vlad Guerrero signing. Not because I didn't like Vlad as a hitter at this point in his career (although I didn't) but because they had already signed Derrek Lee to play first base and that Vlad wasn't filling a hole but blocking an option that could be more valuable in the short term and certainly in the long term.

And I'm not crazy about reading too much into 15 or 20 games but that's the premise that was laid out, so it is the premise that I must refute.

I ran Reimold's numbers through the Minor League Equivalency Calculator on MinorLeagueSplits.com. Here's the results compared to Guerrero's actual numbers this season:

                      AB  R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI  BB   K    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   
Reimold Equivalent    63  5  15    1    0    2    5    6  21  .235  .320  .328  .648
Guerrero 2011         83  7  22    2    0    3    9    0  13  .265  .265  .398  .663

Neither of those lines is great but is Vlad worth the extra $7.5 million in salary for that production?

(By the way, look at the 0 walks for Vlad. Zero. We are closing in fast on the first of May and the guy has zero walks. A 36-year old DH with zero walks. And we know that Stacy values walks.)

The fact that Reimold can play the field to some extent makes him a more valuable and versatile player. Right now. Today.

Forget about Reimold "earning" a chance. He doesn't have to earn a chance. He only has to be a better option than what's on the roster right now. And he's a better option than Guerrero right now. Right. Now.

And he hasn't even started to hit yet. I'll put my money on the guy a decade younger when looking for a rebound.

But things changed when the Orioles signed Vladimir Guerrero. Now, nothing short of an injury or a mid-season trade is going to give Reimold a chance to get promoted. I understand that's where the indignation comes from, and to an extent I understand. Vlad won't help the team long term, Reimold might, and whenever he's ready, he'll be stuck at AAA.

Yep, that pretty much sums up my indignation.

Reimold's ready enough for this team. He's better now, he's better for the future.

Free Nolan Reimold.

Guess the Date

A quick giveaway...

AnyDate.com has provided me with 63-page commerorative newspaper full of New York Times articles of great moments in Oriole history. Details of the newspaper can be found here.

I will be giving away this prize by allowing you to guess a date. What is the date that Nolan Riemold will be called up from Norfolk to Baltimore? This question is confused by the fact that Reimold is only hitting .200 in AAA so the field is wide open.

Send your guess to dempseysarmy at yahoo dot com or tweet it to me @dempseysarmy on Twitter. Good luck!



Baltimore Orioles History

Norfolk Tides vs. Gwinnett Braves: 4/11/11

The Norfolk Tides (AAA affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles) fell to a woeful 0-5 last night in fairly woeful fashion, losing to the Gwinnett Braves 8-3.

Things looked good for the Tides early. LHP Troy Patton took the spot of the recently recalled Brad Bergesen and held the G-Braves hitless for three innings. Nick Green had doubled in Josh Bell in the 2nd and Nolan Reimold had a solo shot to deep left in the 4th to give the Tides the 2-0 lead against RHP Jair Jurrjens who was on a rehab assignment from Atlanta.

But G-Braves CF Jordan Schaefer led off the 4th inning with a drag bunt between the pitcher and first base. Patton ran and lunged at the ball, missed it, stumbled and fell, landing on his left side. Patton remained on the ground for a full minute or two, then got to his feet and was pulled from the game. (It was later reported that Patton had a wrist injury although it looked like he had fallen on his shoulder.)

Fellow lefty Mark Hendrickson came on in relief and gave up 6 runs in his three innings including back-to-back homers in the 6th. Tides RF Tyler Henson hit a sac fly to plate SS Nick Green in the 7th. RHP Pat Egan pitched the final two frames and gave up a two-run homer in the 8th.

The Tides are now the only winless team left in the International League. They will try to get their first win tonight at Coolray Field in Gwinnett.

Some random notes:

Troy Patton: On a night when Jair Jurjens' fast ball was sitting at 92-93 on the stadium radar gun, Patton was having to really dial it up to touch 91. His fastball sat at 87-88 on the night but it was his breaking stuff and offspeed pitches that were giving Gwinnett fits last night. His changeup seemed to be the swing-and-miss pitch of the evening as he compiled 4 strikeouts and walked no one. I don't remember a well-struck ball all night. His injury looked kind of ominous, hopefully it looked worse than it was.

Mark Hendrickson: I was a big proponent of bringing Henrickson back to the Baltimore organization. I think he pitched better than he showed last year and is generally an underrated reliever. But there is nothing I saw last night that would lead me to believe that he can still pitch in the majors. His fastball was up all night, even the outs he got were loud ones and he gave up two home runs to a lineup that is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. He has a lot to work on.

Josh Bell: Bell was a mixed bag in the field. He had a couple of sharp grounders that he bobbled a little, one bobble of which allowed a runner to reach. But his arm was strong and accurate all night, something that he had issues with in Baltimore last season. At the plate, he looked extremely comfortable, even against a good major league caliber pitcher like Jurjens. Bell went 3 for 4 with a triple.

Ryan Adams: Adams did not get that many chances in the field but on a routine grounder up the middle, I saw his fielding flaws. Admas ranged deep and nearly got to the ball but it skipped under his glove and there was just no sense that he is athletic or quic enough to make the tough plays. His arm is good and makes the routine play with little effort. I see why third could be his ultimate position but there was nothing I saw to indicate his reactions are good enough for that position either. At the plate, Adams has struggled thus far but managed to draw 2 walks and also had 2 strikeouts. I like his approach and he may hit well enough to offset his defensive trouble at second.

Pat Egan: I was a little disappointed in Egan. His first inning of relief was exactly what I was expecting. A fastball that sat at 92 mph and could touch 94 and good enough breaking stuff to keep the oppostion off balance. He gave up a liner to left in the 7th but nothing else was well hit. He fielded his position beautifully twice that inning, once to start a 1-5-3 double play and another leaping stab of a chopper that looked to be over his head and heading up the middle.

His nest inning of work was another matter. I don't think he touched 91 more than once and his fastball looked very hittable. He gave up the homer and was lucky that was all that was surrendered. He may just be a one inning guy...looked like a different pitcher during that second inning. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

Nolan Reimold: Hit a homer to left off Jair Jurrjens. Would've liked to have seen him work the count a little better tonight as he went 1-4 with the homer and a strikeout looking. (The called third strike looked low...) Reimold is now hitting .250/.333/.633 on the young season and made a nice running grab on a sinking liner too.

Free Nolan Reimold

"Yeah, great to see you too...again..."

So signing Vlad Guerrero has, for the moment, done exactly what I said it would do waaaay back before the Orioles had even signed him:

Vlad's signing would push Scott to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play.

Nolan Reimold came to camp this spring ready to play. He finally looked healthy and fully recovered from his Achilles surgery. He ran well, played better defense (passable anyway) and hit like crazy. He controlled the strike zone, hit for power and generally looked like the guy who was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2009.

And where did that get him? Banished to the AAA Norfolk Tides...because there is no room for him on the roster.

The guy needs to play. Some have diminished his value and called Reimold "overrated". But Reimold OPS'ed .831 in 2009...which is the same level of offense that Nick Markakis has provided over his five year career. (And yes...I'm throwing out 2010. He wasn't healthy. Period.) It's nothing to sneeze at. And if he can do that again or even improve on it...well, that's something this team needs to know before 2012's free agent season.

And this is not to disparage Guerrero at all. It was the combination of signing Derrek Lee and Guerrero that caused this situation. One or the other would have been great. Signing them both causes a logjam at positions where the O's have a guy on the farm ready to step in.

I said it then and I'll keep saying it. Reimold should be getting big league at bats. Now.

And until he does....I consider him exiled to Norfolk.

Orioles Cut 8; Nolan Reimold and Mark Hendrickson Among Cuts

From the Official Oriole press release:

ORIOLES TRIM SPRING ROSTER BY EIGHT

 

            The Orioles today announced eight spring training roster cuts, bringing their spring roster to 30 players.

            The Orioles optioned OF NOLAN REIMOLD to Triple-A Norfolk and OF RANDY WINN asked for, and was granted, his unconditional release.

            Non-roster invitees LHP CLAY RAPADA, LHP MARK HENDRICKSON, RHP DAVID RISKE, RHP RYAN DRESE, RHP PAT EGAN and INF NICK GREEN have been assigned to minor league camp.

            With the moves, the Orioles have 30 players in camp including 15 pitchers (one non-roster invitee), five outfielders, seven infielders (one non-roster invitees) and three catchers.

            The Orioles have 39 players on their 40-man major league roster, with 28 of them remaining in camp.

More on these cuts later...

Spring Training Updates: Week 2

The end of the second week of spring training games is upon us, so lets see how these position battles are shaking out.

Before the season I listed 5 things to watch:

1. Pie versus Reimold - Felix Pie is hitting .250/.250/.350 still with just the two doubles over 20 plate appearances and, characteristically, no strikeouts or walks. Nolan Reimold is hitting .308/.471/.577 with 2 homers, 7 walks and 5 strikeouts over 33 plate appearances. Reimold is not only outhitting Pie by a large margin, he's getting a longer look this spring. With Derrek Lee's injury, they may both make the Opening Day roster, at least for a while.

2. Chris Tillman versus Jake Arrieta - Arreita has a 3.60 ERA, Tillman has a 7.20 ERA. However, Tillman's peripherals are better (0 HR, 4 K, 1BB) than Arrieta's (1 HR, 2 K, 2 BB) I haven;t seen either of them to see how hard one or the other is getting hit. Zach Britton has been moved up to starter with Tillman working in relief for today's game. A sign of things to come? At the moment, it does not look good for Tillman.

3. Brian Roberts Rebound - Sidelined with neck spasms early, now he is sidelined with back spasms. Not good.

4. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Craig Tatum got up off the mat and is hitting .300/.333/.350 after last night's game. However, Tatum only has 21 plate appearances. Jake Fox has 30 and has posted a line of .367/.367/.767 with three homers and three doubles. Fox is getting the longer looks this spring and is hitting very well. And he has not embarrassed himself behind the plate. Fox has the edge.

5. Who's the Backup Middle Infielder? - None of the candidates has hit. Cesar Izturis has been hurt but is hitting .250/.250/.357 so far and probably has the job by default at this point.

Further developments: Koji Uehara threw on flat ground yesterday...Some beat writers believe that Ryan Drese has pitched well enough this spring to insert himself into the competition for the 5th starter. Drese has not pitched in the majors since 2006 or in affiliated ball since 2008...I saw Jeremy Accardo for the first time last night. He's getting groundball, throwing strikes and has yet to allow a run this spring. If he pans out, kudos to the Oriole scouting team for rescuing him from the Toronto farm system he has been buried in for the last two seasons...Ryan Adams might be a better prospect than I thought. He has decent power and a good approach at the plate. His fielding needs some work but if he's passable, the bat might play. He should get to (if not starts in) AAA at age 24 this season. I'll be curious to see how he does...Top prospect Zach Britton is coming up on the outside in the rotation competition. He has given up no earned runs and his peripherals and ground ball rates look great...Rule 5 pick Adrian Rosario has been wild and has a 9.00 ERA. The team can arrange a trade for him with the Brewers but he looks like a wasted pick at this point...Meanwhile, RHP Pedro Beato has a 1.80 ERA for the Mets but the peripherals are not so good for him. RHP Pat Egan has a 0.00 ERA but only two appearances for the Brewers. Both may be offered back to Baltimore or in Egan's case, he could be swapped for Adrian Rosario.

Vlad Guerrero is an Oriole. Double Rainbow Spotted Over Camden Yards

Vladimir Guerrero is reportedly a Baltimore Oriole, signing a 1-year $8 million deal.

You've already heard me rail against this signing enough. The Orioles should be giving at bats to Nolan Reimold and to a lesser extent, Felix Pie. I mean, Vlad OPSed .841 in 2010. Reimold OPSed .831 in his rookie year. I don't see Vlad improving on those numbers. There is a decent chance Reimold could. But I'll delve into that in a later post.

Most fans seem to be looking at the name on the back of the jersey more than Vlad's actual production of late. So they are happy. But Vlad won't help as much as everyone thinks. I've detailed that. Others have too. And I'm sure I will again.

Let's not even discuss the money. There is little chance he will be worth that much and given the reduced market for his services, that's an incredible overpay. It had better not affect the draft budget.

Now, Vlad's season is linked to Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold, maybe even Joe Mahoney. It will, at the very least, be interesting to watch how the season unfolds with all these moving parts. And it'll give me a theme to write about all season...

Why Signing Vlad Guerrero is a Bad Idea

As much as I hate commenting on hypothetical moves, it seems I'm already arguing about them on Twitter. So now I will elaborate as to why I am not thrilled with the idea of Vladimir Guerrero coming to Baltimore next season.

1. Vlad Guererro isn't Vlad Guerrero Anymore

From 1996 to 2007, Vlad was a monster. He hit .325/.391/.591 with 365 home runs and an OPS+ of 148. However, for the last 3 seasons he has hit .300/.350/.496 with 71 homers and an OPS+ of 121. That's a good hitter but not a great one. In addition, he can no longer play the field anymore. So given that he is no longer a monster at the plate...

2. Vlad Won't Help This Team That Much

If I believed the Orioles were going to contend this year, loading up on veteran help would make a lot of sense and would be banging the drum loudly for this signing. But this team is not a contender. Not this year. I figured that if everything goes perfectly and Vlad repeats his performance from last year, he might be worth a couple extra wins. Dan at Camden Crazies broke it down some more and figures Vlad would only be worth one win, maybe. So will it make that big a difference if this team wins 73 games instead of 71 or 72? I don't see how. Besides...

3. We Already Have A DH Who Hits Like Vlad

Over the past three seasons, Vlad has an .845 OPS. Luke Scott also has an .845 OPS over that span. In addition, he can still play the outfield or first base making him a versatile and valuable player. But why couldn't the team move Scott back out to left field and let Vlad DH full time? Well they could but...

4. Vlad Robs Young Hitters of At Bats

Vlad's signing would push Scot to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play. Or by some chance, Brandon Snyder puts it together and tears up the International League. Without Vlad, Snyder could come up and DH with Scott moving to left. Not possible with Vlad on the roster. Ditto for Josh Bell.

At this point, it's more important for Pie and Reimold to get the at bats so the team can see if they will be useful nuggets going forward and to have flexibility to call up hitters from Norfolk who are deserving of promotion.

This team isn't going to win or lose because of Vlad Guerrero. Its fortune ride on the offensive development of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold and on the advances Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and (possibly) Zach Britton make on the mound. An aging DH isn't going to make or break this team. So leave him alone and let the guys who are a decade younger play ball.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 2

Thanks to all the astute readers who pointed out that Mark Hendrickson could not be retained for $200k next season. That's the number on his buyout for 2011; he would make $1.2 million if his option is exercised. It didn't look right when I was typing it and a second look at Cot's Baseball Contracts confirmed that it was not. Thanks for the heads up guys!


We took a look at the payroll in Part 1, now let's look where some money needs to be spent. The Orioles have big needs at first base, third base, shortstops and on the pitching staff. Here's some ideas of how to fill these holes.

First Base/Designated Hitter

Pricey Options

Adam Dunn

Dunn is hitting free agency again after playing out his 2-year and, again, I will stump for his signing. Dunn is a butcher in the field but he wouldn't hurt you a ton splitting his time between 1B and DH. (Leaning more toward DH but I don't think he hurts you so bad at 1B that he can't start in the field 90-100 games a year.) I howled for him to be signed after 2008, especially when it became apparent that Mark Teixeira could not be signed. In fact, I imagined he could produce as well at the plate for half the money. And he did even more than that:

2009-2010      AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Dunn          .264  .378  .533  .910
Teixeira      .274  .374  .523  .897

Andy, it's time to buy a bat.

Oriole first basemen have OPS'ed .676 over the past two seasons and the O's paid their 2010 Opening Day first baseman $4 million to suck really hard. Meanwhile, Dunn was making $10 mil per year and crushing it.

The thing is, he's still undervalued. I think you can lock Dunn up for $13-14 mil per year for a 4-year contract. That gives you Dunn for his age 31-34 seasons and gives you one of the best DHs in the American League.

Furthermore, it would allow you to trade Luke Scott and prep Nolan Reimold to take over regular first base duties. Scott may not make the $7.5 mil I estimate but unloading that cash to another team for a couple prospects or some relievers makes sense. His value will never be higher and he would still be under control via arbitration for the next two years. There's no place for Reimold in the Oriole outfield right now, he can fill a need at first. If Reimold never returns to his rookie year form, Dunn helps soften that blow as well.

Victor Martinez

The Orioles value versatility and Martinez could offer some of that. Although Martinez is past his prime as a catcher, you could still see him catching on and off giving the O's more flexibility in the lineup. He's a good hitter.

The problem is, he's not really the power bat that many perceive him to be. Sure, when you hit 20-25 homers as a catcher, that's nice power. As a first baseman, that fairly average.

Also, there's likely to be more competition to sign Martinez. He will almost certainly cost at least what Dunn does over a longer contract. Moreover, there are candidates who will cost less over shorter contracts who could produce similar numbers. More on that below.

Mid-Range Options

Derrek Lee

There are a lot of mid-range candidates for first base out there who could be had for relatively modest money over two-year contracts: Paul Konerko, Troy Glaus, Adam La Roche, Lyle Overbay. But I figured I'd focus on two. Derrek Lee could come at a relative bargain.

Lee may find the demand for his services lacking after a down season. He'll be 35 in 2011 but is just 2 years removed from a 35 homer season. Like Adrian Beltre last year, Lee may be willing to sign a one-year deal to reestablish his reputation and try to get a better deal a year from now. You wouldn't want to go longer than a two-year deal with him but you could DH him some, help keep him healthy and he could put up V-Mart type numbers for the next two seasons. It's an option while our 1B prospects in the minors sort themselves out.

Carlos Pena

Anyone in baseball could have had Pena for a song 4 years ago. Now someone will have to pay.

But not that much, really. Pena had a pretty bad year for the Rays and didn't even hit .200. But he still had 28 homers and an ISO north of .200. He's not a perfectg player but he's a prime candidate for a rebound. Again, a 0ne or two year commitment as a stopgap while better options mature in the minors.

Budget Options

Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold

As I said last season, deploying Scott as a first baseman early in the season with Reimold playing DH until his Achilles tendon was healthy would have been a nice option for 2010. Now, we'll never know.

I still don't think this is a bad plan. Let them both play first and as Reimold's bat comes back, ease Scott back into a DH role and/or trade him. But I don't think this is a likely option since the Orioles are reportedly targeting a big bat for 2011.

Ty Wigginton

Of the flotsam that may be left for cheap out there, I'd be OK with signing Wiggy back for cheap to play some first and some third for 2011 as long as it was for $2 mil or less and a one-year deal. His versatility would allow him to move to a bench/utility role once a better option at first was found.


Third Base

Pricey Options

Adrian Beltre

Beltre is only an option for the Orioles if they are certain that Josh Bell cannot play in the majors at all. Beltre will be 32 next season and is coming off a fantastic year in Boston. he will be expensive and he will command at least a 4-year deal. Lots of money for a guy who will be on the wrong side of 35 when his contract is up. But he's a fine bat and a stellar defender at third. But I think $13 mil per season is what it would take to sign him, at the very least. I'm not sure that's the kind of guy the O's want to lock up for a long contract.

Mid-Range Options

Brandon Inge

If you want to give Josh Bell a real shot, you probably shouldn't sign a guy like Inge either since he would take away playing time for Bell even in a part time role. But Inge gives you a fine glove and nice power for the position. He should come fairly cheap and very short-term.

Budget Options

Josh Bell

The cheapest way to go is just to let Bell play and be ready for him to suck. The club should sign a Ty Wigginton type as a bench/utility guy who can spell Bell and provide an emergency replacement. But I think Bell may become a serviceable player and has some nice upside. I expect that the Orioles will give him every opportunity to prove himself in 2011.



Next: Shortstop and the Pitching Staff

Nolan Reimold To The Rescue?

From the Oriole Insider blog on BaltimoreSun.com:

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Nolan Reimold went 4-for-5 with a double, homer, two RBIs and a stolen base against Louisville last night. In seven August games with the Tides, Reimold is batting .400 with two homers, seven RBIs, three walks and two steals. Overall, he’s batting .238 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and six stolen bases in 73 games.

It’s obviously been a long and trying year for Reimold, who was supposed to be the everyday left fielder in Baltimore. Instead, he hit .205 in 29 games and has been in the minor leagues since May 12. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said there has been some discussions about promoting Reimold, but nothing is imminent at this point.

I don't believe that Reimold was healthy to start this season and that certainly didn't help things. The silver lining to his struggles and subsequent demotion? Reimold could compete for the first base job in 2011.

Reimold has played 38 of his 73 games in Norfolk at first base. And his hot August is no fluke. Even though he only posted a .235/.361/.382 line in July his BABIP was only .238 when his line drive percentage supports a BABIP in the .290's. In other words, Reimold was unlucky in July and has been hitting the ball a lot better since the beginning of July. (He has also walked 21 times since July 1st against just 16 strikeouts.)

Reimold should get a September callup but with Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, there is no room for Reimold in the outfield. A 1B/DH split with Luke Scott makes some sense and adds a decent right handed power bat the the Orioles lineup needs.

5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.

5.  Brian Roberts' Injury

Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.

Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.

Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.


4. Adam Jones' Glove

Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.

Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.

The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.


3. Nolan Reimold

After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.

I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.


2. Brian Matusz

Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.

Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.


1. Matt Wieters

The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.

Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.

Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.

Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.

Can He Play First?

No, not Nolan Reimold. I think Reimold can play first but when you're hitting .105 in AAA it doesn't matter much where your glove plays.

I mean Pat Burrel who was cast off from the Rays earlier this week. You scoff? Burrell's hitting line compared to Oriole first baseman this season:

          Slash Line
Burrell  .202/.292/.333

Atkins   .221/.261/.283
Hughes   .213/.275/.255

Overall, Oriole first basemen have combined to OPS .520 this season. Burrell's OPS of .625 would (sadly) be a big improvement.

If you can get Burrell for the league minimum, I say you do it. Burrell started for the Phillies at first for most of his rookie season. I'll bet he can field as well as Atkins can.

Oh, and Atkins needs to be released but I'll write more about that later...

Nolan Reimold Sent to Norfolk, Corey Patterson Recalled

(Sorry I've been away from the blog but I'm traveling for work and keeping long hours this week...back to regularly scheduled blogging next week.)

In a way, this is what you have to love about baseball. There's always a surprise. Nobody would've predicted this Oriole transaction back on April 6th.

Nolan Reimold, last season's rookie phenom, was sent back to AAA today after starting the season with a .205/.302/.337 line over 29 games. This represents a failure for the organization as they were too aggressive (or let Reimold be too aggressive) in bringing Nolan back from Achilles tendon surgery in the offseason. Reimold never looked quite right in Spring Training and instead of DHing him exclusively early in the season, they put him in the field far too often when it was apparent he wasn't ready. They should have DHed him exclusively in Spring Training, let him start the season on the 15-day DL, kept him in Sarasota for more rehab and let him come back in late April. Instead, he failed to recover in an adequate manner and is now being sent back to Norfolk. I guess you could call this Monday morning quaterbacking but I expressed this concern in the offseason.

All that said, at this point Reimold should have stayed. He's not hitting for much power and not hitting the ball very hard at this point but he was hitting no worse than Luke Scott and the odds were that he was going to turn it around eventually. The O's cast the die with Reimold, now they should have stuck with him.

Compounding the move is the recall of Corey Patterson. Patterson was (and is) a superior defender but is an offensive black hole. But because he is fast, Dave Trembley will do stupid things like bat him leadoff. Like he did tonight. The first night Patterson was up with the big club.

The bright side? I don't think Reimold will be gone for long. If nothing else, he will force his way back to Baltimore in June and bump Lou Montanez back to AAA. It can't come a moment too soon.

Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Worried About Reimold

And that is a misleading title. I'm not worried about Reimold over the course of the whole 2010 season. But I am concerned about how ready he'll be to play on Opening Day.

Reimold had surgery on his left Achilles tendon in September and I have been skeptical about how much he might be able to play the field this April. So far:

• Reimold has only appeared in 5 games this spring (6 counting tonight)
• He has appeared in most of those games as a DH
• He has not played the field since last Sunday
• He is 0-15 with no walks and three strikeouts (yeah, it's spring but Nolan didn't go 0-15 all last season)
• He has reportedly been gimpy and seen limping several times this spring

Opening Day is 2.5 weeks away. I don't see a quantum leap happening for Reimold by then. He's going to have to DH when April rolls around and even then maybe not everyday. I don't think it's any coincidence that Luke Scott has been getting some reps at first base.

And if he can't play everyday, he may start the season on the DL.

It's not a gamechanger for the season but if you think Reimold is going to be 100% ready on April 5th, you're deluding yourself. He will not be.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010

It's that time again! 8 days until the first Spring Training workouts commence. Unlike previous years, many of the roster spots will be spoken for going into Sarasota but there will still be some things to look for, many of them holdover topics from previous years

1.  Chris Tillman - The rotation is pretty much set but comments from Dave Trembley and Tillman's struggles during his debut last season have left the door open. He's only 22 and if he doesn't look more like the Norfolk version of Tillman in Spring Training, he could find himself back in AAA to start the season. There's also an outside chance that David Hernandez figures out how to strike guys out in Sarasota and edges Tillman out. We know that Trembley likes to go with the hot hand in spring. See Alfredo Simon last season.

2.  The Bench - It's hard to believe that Ty Wigginton breaks camp with the team given his salary and his skill set. This opens the door for Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes or Scott Moore (I have not given up on Moore yet...). And while Robert Andino showed a good glove last season, his bat makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Justin Turner in particular could earn a utility infield spot with a strong showing in Sarasota.

3.  Health - For all the happy talk about everyone being ready for Spring Training, there still has to be some concern with how Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and, now, Will Ohman looks as they shake off the rust this March. For one, I will be shocked if Reimold plays any left field before March 15th. Koji Uehara needs to show he is back and can handle bullpen duty. Bergesen will have to show he feels good enough about his leg to pitch free and easy.

4.  The Battle for the Backup Backstop - This is my own pet subject and this year should be no less fascinating (at least for me). Trembley has already said he sees a good competition between Chad Moeller, Craig Tatum and Michael Hernandez. Sure, it's not earthshaking but it gives you something to watch during the late innings of those early Spring Training games.

5.  Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonazalez, Mark Hendrickson and Jim Johnson are near locks for three bullpen spots. The rest? Wide open. It's an interesting mix of veterans and kids. Matt Albers and Cla Meredith will try to retain their spots. Dennis Sarfate will try to force his way back in after being DFA'd this offseason. Kam Mickolio and Alberto Castillo will try to build on brief successes in 2009. Would-be rookie Josh Perrault is my dark horse candidate to make the bullpen in 2010. Can Uehara and Ohman stay healthy? Can Alfredo Simon relieve better than he started?

Could Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott Play First?

This comment under my Luke Scott post got me thinking...

Replace Atkins with Pie and that lineup is a thing of beauty. It would go



S L R L R S R L S


No consecutive batters from the same side. Man I wish Trembley would let Reimold or Scott play 1st.

math_geek

First, I hadn't realized how well balanced the handedness was in my sample lineup.

But really it got me thinking about first base. Why couldn't Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott play first on a regular basis? You could still sub in Atkins to add flexibility and give Reimold his reps in left. But replacing Atkins with Pie would give the O's the best offensive lineup.

CHONE Projections for the players involved:

OPS
Atkins      .739
Reimold     .832
Scott       .808
Pie         .767
 

Even Pie is projected to be a significantly better hitter than Garret Atkins. And even if we assume average fielding from Reimold in left, Pie is a big upgrade with the glove.

Reimold and Scott would both be big offensive upgrades over Atkins but how big is the difference in their defense? For his career at first base, his UZR is -6.3. That's only over 708+ innings and is a bit of a small sample size. We'll bump him up to -.3 UZR and give him the benefit of the doubt.

Now, we can measure this in terms of WAR. How badly would Scott or Reimold have to play at first to offset the offense they bring to the table. Plugging some values into the WAR spreadsheet, this is what I came up with. (I am assuming all will be equal baserunners.)

UZR
Scott     -19.0
Reimold   -26.0

The worst defensive first baseman (of regulars) in baseball last year was Billy Butler. His UZR was -7.4. You will occasionally see a guy have a season with -16, -18 UZR (Mike Jacobs had a -19.4 UZR in 2008) but it would be virtually impossible for Scott or (especially) Reimold to play first base so badly that they would offset their much improved bats.

The best choice would be to make Scott the everyday first baseman, rotate Pie and Reimold through LF/CF/DH with Adam Jones and bring Atkins off the bench.

But that's not happening.