Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Anatomy of a Streak-Breaker

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com:




As you would expect, Ty Wigginton was the offensive hero with .252 WPA for the game, a total that will rank among the best of the year. Nick Markakis chipped in with a .092 WPA. Brian Matusz had .108 WPA with 6.1 IP and Jim Johnson, a recent goat, kicked in .062 WPA in 2 innings of relief.

Can the winning continue? Maybe. But the injuries hurt, pun unintended.

OF Felix Pie, 2B Brian Roberts and likely 3B Miguel Tejada will miss the series with Seattle. That hurts the struggling offense. But if there's one offense on the level of Baltimore's, it's the Mariners.

Seattle has only scored 3 more runs than the O's and that's good news for Brad Bergesen. If he can't get back on track in a pitcher's park (Safeco) against a punchless lineup (only 5 homers all season), then he may never get it back.

The bottom line is that the O's have a puncher's chance in this series.

As a bonus, you'll get to see 2B Justin Turner (perhaps a player in the middle infield for Baltimore in 2011) and OF Lou Montanez (who has been buried in Norfolk by Baltimore's infield depth). Yeah, that won't help the W-L ledger but I've been curious to see how Turner will handle big league pitching and all those "Sweet Lou" worshippers should come out of the woodwork to hope that Lou shows enough to at least be trade fodder in July.

I'm sure you're all sick of my sunny optimism by now but...Let's Go O's!

Base Hits: 5/20/2009

Chris Ray is sporting an ERA north of 8.00...and that's a problem. Has he lost his fastball? Not really. His average fastball speed is 94 mph which is a couple mph off his 2007 levels but it's still not bad. But he doesn't trust his fastball anymore.




He used to work off his fastball, now not so much. He went from throwing it 72% of the time to throwing it less than half of the time. The slider and, to a greater extent, his change up are far more prominent and the results have not been good.

Why doesn't he believe in his fastball? It seems like he's still getting good horizontal movement but not quite as much movement vertically. Maybe that's the issue? Regardless, it's time for Ray to go to Norfolk to work it out. Matt Albers was better than this.

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As a fan of baseball and Jack Kerouac, I knew that he had concocted his own imaginary league of baseball teams that he played for much of his life. But I had never seen the evidence of those leagues until this week. Great stuff.

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Pie in May - .286/.355/.536
Montanez in May - .226/.294/.387

Which one needs to go to Norfolk when Scott comes back?

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Another great installment of the Eutaw Street Chronicles over at Roar From 34.

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Jay Trucker of the Examiner is not thrilled about new Baltimore Sun sports columnist Kevin Cowherd and pulls no punches...

In your "introduction," you noted that you covered sports for The Evening Sun from 1981 to 1987. I’m sure that if you want to, you will once again be an excellent addition to the Baltimore sports writing dialogue. But be forewarned. This isn’t 1987. Slip up, and you will have to deal with more than a letter to the editor or two. If you take a nap at your typewriter, awaken 20 minutes before a deadline, and rattle off 300 words explaining that Jeremy Guthrie’s “lack of fire” and “mental weakness” are to blame for his recent pitching woes, I will retaliate -- with facts and empiricism.

I don't disagree with many of Trucker's assertions in genereal. But shouldn't we wait until Cowherd writes his first baseball column, Jay?

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The Loss Column is concerned about Dave Trembley's habit of pulling starters after six innings or after 100 pitches.

I think the issue is that we don't have any pitchers capable of going more than 6 innings. Only Jeremy Guthrie would qualify and he has not performed up to expectations. More a function of personnel than managing.

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This is pretty cool. The Norfolk Tides are now putting game highlights up on YouTube. Here's the highlights from yesterday's game:

Random Thoughts from Weekend Baseball

I really don't know whether to be encouraged that Jeremy Guthrie battled so hard after that bad first inning on Friday or concerned that he gave up his league leading 8th home run in 7 starts in said inning.

Luis Montanez hit .300 last week, Felix Pie .333. Competition is a good thing? BTW if Luke Scott goes on the DL, it's a huge blow to the Orioles offense. But it does give Pie and Montanez more opportunites.

Matt Wieters has hit 4 doubles in his last five games and is now hitting over .300 again.

If there was ever one thing you needed to point to that would demonstrate the superiority of American League talent to National League talent, it would be Fernando Tatis. The guy was washed up and couldn't even stick with the Orioles, one of the worst teams in the AL. Now, for the past two years, he sees significant playing time for the Mets, a NL team that is considered a serious contender.

Speaking of the Mets...what kind of throw is this?



Can we get Koji a win? Just one win? He's strung together five straight quality starts. How about just a little win for the brother?

Ryan Freel debuted as a Cub today, getting a pinch hit...and then promptly getting picked off second base. At least he ducked this time...

Base Hits: 4/23/2009

I'm sure Alfredo Simon has friends or a mom that care about him and I would never wish injury on any player. But Simon's season ending elbow surgery is the best news this team has had in this young season. Simon should never have made this team out of Spring Training anyway and his quick departure saves us from watching him stink for weeks before being sent to the minors.

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Nick Markakis has a modest 9 game hitting streak going posting a line of .417/.488/.639 during that stretch.

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In my ode to small sample sizes, just a note that Lou Montanez has come up and in two games has managed to perform worse than Felix Pie. Good for Pie, bad for the Orioles.

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Tim Brennan, a staff writer for DelmarvaNow.com, takes a look at the big league debut of former-Shorebird Brad Bergesen. Nice look at how a kid reacts to his first call-up to the majors.

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The Orioles still have not decided where they will hold Spring Training 2010 (or 2011) but Sarasota still seems to be in the mix.

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The Orioles are now bribing us to vote "Orange" for the All-Star game:

Fans who vote at www.orioles.com and select the Orioles as their favorite team will receive an exclusive promotional code for $5 off any ticket to any non-prime Orioles home game after the All-Star break. Those who vote the maximum 25 times at the website will receive a promo code good for a free Upper Reserve
ticket to any non-prime home game after the All-Star break.

Well, I have to admit....I can be bought. Cheap.

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I am still working out exactly what I'm doing with this but I have started Twittering over the last three weeks. If you use it, you can follow me at DempseysArmy. Mostly it's just links back here but I am starting to post using TwitPics for snapshots that don't warrant a full post.

Injuries, Roster Moves and the Trials of Felix Pie

Turns out Ryan Freel is only hard-headed when it comes to his self-perceived worth as a ballplayer.

Freel was placed on the 15 day DL with a head injury after being hit in the head by Boston pitcher Justin Masterson during a pickoff throw to first.

If you read regularly, you know that I was not a big fan of the Hayden Penn trade. But I have wondered if the presence of Ty Wigginton and the addition of Robert Andino made Freel redundant. I guess now we'll find out.

Radhames Liz was sent down to Norfolk to make room for Brad Bergesen. That's where Liz belongs for the forseeable future; he shouldn't have been called up to begin with.

Lou Montanez is being recalled from AAA Norfolk and will get a another chance to stick with the big club as the 4th outfielder and part time DH. Montanez has supposedly worked on his defense in the offseason (and I saw some of that improvement firsthand on Sunday) and he is destroying International League pitching through the first two weeks of the season. I think the team is better with Lou on the bench at this point.

Some are already grumbling about the lack of production from Felix Pie and seem to think that this spells the beginning of the end for Pie's starting gig. That would be disappointing.

They decided to give Pie a shot and they should stick with him at least through the All-Star break. Let's not go crazy based on 11 games.

Randomly, I decided to see how three young Baltimore outfielders fared during their first 38 games as regulars in the Majors.


Adam Jones

.223 AVG, 31 SO, 7 BB, 2HR, .633 OPS

Nick Markakis

.204 AVG, 17 SO, 9 BB, 2 HR, .604 OPS

Luis Matos

.350 AVG, 30 SO, 11 BB, .916 OPS

Jones didn't start to hit until mid-July last season. Markakis didn't take off until mid-June of 2006. And Luis Matos didn't start to come back to Earth until mid-July.

Early returns don't mean much. Eleven games mean even less. Let's give Pie a little more time before we run him out of town.

Base Hits: 4/1/2009

I don't want to let this go but I don't want to beat a dead horse either...but one more comment on Montanez vs. Pie.

Comments like this are prolific on discussion boards and article comments:

I also fear Pie will be one of those can't do anything wrong types because the resident genius hand picked him.

OK, just to set the record straight....Yes, Andy MacPhail picked Pie...but he picked Montanez too! 1st round pick in 2000! Andy hand picked him too!

OK, I feel better now.

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Dave Mc (formerly Desert O) has created an O'specific Search Engine that is on the front page of Weaver's Tantrum. It works great. I searched for Reggie Jackson and Pat Hentgen for a test case and both came up with Oriole-centric results. Click on some of the ads while you're at it.

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I did a quick Q&A with Sadler of Right Off Russell. Nothing earth-shattering if you are a regular reader but a lot of good stuff on this new Baltimore sports blog.

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Nick Markakis had a chat on ESPN.com. He struggles against Roy Halladay, loved to hit in Safeco Field and thinks Adam Jones has a far superior arm. All of these thing, statistically, appear to be true.

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Hayden Penn has been traded to the Marlins for IF Robert Andino.

Andino seems to be a no-hit, good-glove guy who moved up the Marlins farm system while only hitting at a moderate level. Some preliminary digging around shows a questionable glove but I guess we'll have to see how he does in the Orange and Black.

I'm still a fan of Penn. Good luck Hayden. I'll add this to the Trade Monitor...

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Matthew Taylor continues the impressive Eutaw Street Chronicles with a full list of all the Eutaw Street plaques on Roar from 34. Nice work!

Pick the Mystery Player...

I've seen this elsewhere so I figured I would use this method to get up on my soapbox...

Which outfielder would you choose? Neither has more than 300 big league at bats. Their minor league stats:

Player    AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Player A .282  .348  .430  .778
Player B .299  .355  .470  .825
 

Player B has a significant advantage in OPS, mostly from his slugging percentage. Now, just imagine that Player B is three years younger than player B. Who would you choose?

Now, over the course of 50 at bats in Spring Training, Player A outplays Player B by a significant margin. Would that change your decision?

If you haven't yet guessed, Player A is Lou Montanez and Player B is Felix Pie. I can't believe any rational person would've selected Player A, regardless of the Spring Training stats. Especially when you factor in that Pie has more than 1000 ABs at AAA while Montanez has less than 500.

Everybody calm down...and send Montanez to Norfolk.

(edit: Looks like the front office has some sense when it comes to this issue...thank God.)


Now let's look at some pitchers. All have less than 90 innings of big league experience. Their minor league stats:

Player     ERA  WHIP  K/9  BB/9  HR/9
Player A  4.18  1.30  6.0  3.0   0.7
Player B  3.87  1.30  8.0  3.0   0.8
Player C  5.04  1.46  6.7  3.0   1.1

 

Now based on these numbers alone, you would probably rank Player B at the top narrowly over Player A. But it is clear that you would rank Player C at the bottom by any stat listed here.

Now consider their ages. Player B is the youngest with Player A three years older and Player C 4 years older. Now how are they ranked?

Now consider that Player C has outperformed the other two players over less than 20 innings in Spring Training. Does that change your opinion?

Player A is Brian Bass. Player B is Hayden Penn. Player C is...Alfredo Simon. Does he still look like the best option for a back of the rotation starter.

I say no. Off to Norfolk with Simon too.

Just a little food for thought...

Montanez vs. Pie: Not The First Meeting, Nor the Last

Roch Kubatko posted about Luis Montanez today and it included a telling quote from Montanez about his chances of making the team:

"I hope it's still a competition and not a hand-over," Montanez said without mentioning Pie or any other players. "I hope they're not just rewarding people. I hope it's based more on merit than just names."

Montanez could not have been thrilled when Pie was added to the club. It's not the first time that Pie may have cost him a job.

Montanez was drafted in the first round (third overall) by the Cubs in 2000. He struggled early, not having even modest success until 2004 at Low A Boise. Montanez has moved from shortstop to second. It was also this year that Montanez first crossed paths with Felix Pie at High A Dayton.

Here was a player, three years his junior, who was doing all the things with a bat that Montanez has been projected to do. Pie was just one of several talented youngsters who were passing Montanez on the depth chart.

At age 19, Pie was OPSing .799, stealing 32 bases and playing a stellar centerfield as one of the youngest players in the league. Pie would start 2005 in AA West Tennessee while Montanez would not be called up until 2/3 of the season was up.

In 2006, Montanez was crushing AA pitching...but Pie was up in AAA at age 21 posting a .792 OPS. Montanez played 82 games at AAA that year but only managed to hit .224. At the end of the season, the Cubs gave up on him and he signed with Baltimore and was assigned to Bowie.

Fast-forward two years: Montanez has played well in a 38 game stint with Baltimore and is the odds on favorite to make the team as the 4th outfielder. And who comes along? Lou must be wondering what he has to do to get rid of this guy.

Montanez is almost certainly destined for Norfolk but for the first time in his career, he has a small window where he actually looks better than Pie. It's understandable why he would twist the knife at this point.

Some of the commentary supporting Montanez below Roch's post is insane. A sample:

Also, with Pie being late to camp and not "wow-ing" anyone yet, shouldn't he be sent to the minors for Opening Day? Let him "work on some things" that, apparently, Montanez has already worked out.

Pie is out of options. That's why the Orioles were able to get him in the first place. He can't be sent down without being claimed by another team. Next:

They had to get Reimold out of there, he was really coming on. Its embarassing now, think what it would be like at the end of spring training with Reimold at .350 and 7 or 8 home runs vs the Chosen One (Pie) at less than .200 and 1 home run.

If Montanez continues to do well they'll have to move him too.

So they sent Reimold away to save face for Pie? Reimold spent his first fully healthy season at AA Bowie last year and had a nice year. He needs more seasoning in Norfolk before he's ready. It's obvious why he was sent to minor league camp. He's not ready. Pie has a good AAA resume at least.

What a complete sham. Just because Pie has played at AAA he deserves to play in the majors more than Lou? Pie is clearly Andrew's golden boy and he will have to do something illegal not to make this team.

Once again quality minor leaguers who have done their time and learned the Oriole way will not be rewarded because retreads and alleged "prospects" get first crack at the 25 man roster.

Again, yes the AAA experience means a lot. Pie has OPS'ed well over .800 in more than 280 AAA games. He has only had 260 ABs to prove himself in the majors. He deserves a real shot.

Yes, Montanez has done his time and learned the "Oriole Way"...for two seasons. He is not, explicitly, homegrown talent.

I'll say it again...I like Lou Montanez, I don't love him. I certainly don't like him enough to give him a job over a promising, more proven commodity who is three years his junior.