Base Hits: 4/3/2009

Tangotiger is relying on the wisdom of crowds to create a projection system based on playing time. What's missing? Your input? To quote Tango, "Who knows more about whether a pitcher will be in the starting rotation or the bullpen: an algorithm or a true fan?...There are certain human observation elements that are critical for forecasting."

Go give him a hand; it's kind of fun.

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Two Oriole related post at The Hardball Times: Evan Brunell asked Five Questions about the 2009 Orioles and Colin Wyers tempers some of the insane projections for Oriole prospect Matt Wieters. The good news? Wieters still looks like the real deal.

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Weaver's Tantrum takes a look at Robert Andino through the eyes of Marlins fans.

Dave and I disagree about the merits of this trade...but more on this later in the post.

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FrostKing has finished up his WAR spreadsheet now that the roster is more settled. I may finish up mine over vacation...when I'm not so depressed.

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The Baltimore Sun rips the Spring Training facilities in Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota and quotes several players.

And it's rare that I wholeheartedly agree with Nestor Aparicio but he throws his two cents in on the stadium in Ft. Lauderdale too. He's 100% correct. It's a joke. (tip of the hat to Anthony at Oriole Post for linking to Nestor's post...)

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Some things are so good and so consistent that you take them for granted. It goes without saying that I read Rock Kubatko's School of Roch blog religiously. What hasn't been said is that Kubatko's Spring Training coverage is always stellar and that he provides the better coverage of the Orioles than any other writer on the beat. And it's not even close.

Really, his posts are unmissable if you are a diehard fan.

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The Wayward Oriole is ready for the season to start.

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Just a few parting shots and predictions for the season...

I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore.

Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July.

Matt Wieters is here in May.

Brad Bergeson is here in July.

Brian Matusz is here is September.

The Orioles win 72 games.

Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie.

Nick Markakis OPS's .900+

Felix Pie gets better in the second half.

Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.

Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.

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Ironically, I won't be posting much next week as I'll be on vacation and will have limited access to the internet during that time. Let's hope for a respectable opening series...

Montanez vs. Pie: Not The First Meeting, Nor the Last

Roch Kubatko posted about Luis Montanez today and it included a telling quote from Montanez about his chances of making the team:

"I hope it's still a competition and not a hand-over," Montanez said without mentioning Pie or any other players. "I hope they're not just rewarding people. I hope it's based more on merit than just names."

Montanez could not have been thrilled when Pie was added to the club. It's not the first time that Pie may have cost him a job.

Montanez was drafted in the first round (third overall) by the Cubs in 2000. He struggled early, not having even modest success until 2004 at Low A Boise. Montanez has moved from shortstop to second. It was also this year that Montanez first crossed paths with Felix Pie at High A Dayton.

Here was a player, three years his junior, who was doing all the things with a bat that Montanez has been projected to do. Pie was just one of several talented youngsters who were passing Montanez on the depth chart.

At age 19, Pie was OPSing .799, stealing 32 bases and playing a stellar centerfield as one of the youngest players in the league. Pie would start 2005 in AA West Tennessee while Montanez would not be called up until 2/3 of the season was up.

In 2006, Montanez was crushing AA pitching...but Pie was up in AAA at age 21 posting a .792 OPS. Montanez played 82 games at AAA that year but only managed to hit .224. At the end of the season, the Cubs gave up on him and he signed with Baltimore and was assigned to Bowie.

Fast-forward two years: Montanez has played well in a 38 game stint with Baltimore and is the odds on favorite to make the team as the 4th outfielder. And who comes along? Lou must be wondering what he has to do to get rid of this guy.

Montanez is almost certainly destined for Norfolk but for the first time in his career, he has a small window where he actually looks better than Pie. It's understandable why he would twist the knife at this point.

Some of the commentary supporting Montanez below Roch's post is insane. A sample:

Also, with Pie being late to camp and not "wow-ing" anyone yet, shouldn't he be sent to the minors for Opening Day? Let him "work on some things" that, apparently, Montanez has already worked out.

Pie is out of options. That's why the Orioles were able to get him in the first place. He can't be sent down without being claimed by another team. Next:

They had to get Reimold out of there, he was really coming on. Its embarassing now, think what it would be like at the end of spring training with Reimold at .350 and 7 or 8 home runs vs the Chosen One (Pie) at less than .200 and 1 home run.

If Montanez continues to do well they'll have to move him too.

So they sent Reimold away to save face for Pie? Reimold spent his first fully healthy season at AA Bowie last year and had a nice year. He needs more seasoning in Norfolk before he's ready. It's obvious why he was sent to minor league camp. He's not ready. Pie has a good AAA resume at least.

What a complete sham. Just because Pie has played at AAA he deserves to play in the majors more than Lou? Pie is clearly Andrew's golden boy and he will have to do something illegal not to make this team.

Once again quality minor leaguers who have done their time and learned the Oriole way will not be rewarded because retreads and alleged "prospects" get first crack at the 25 man roster.

Again, yes the AAA experience means a lot. Pie has OPS'ed well over .800 in more than 280 AAA games. He has only had 260 ABs to prove himself in the majors. He deserves a real shot.

Yes, Montanez has done his time and learned the "Oriole Way"...for two seasons. He is not, explicitly, homegrown talent.

I'll say it again...I like Lou Montanez, I don't love him. I certainly don't like him enough to give him a job over a promising, more proven commodity who is three years his junior.

Hernandez is a Red; O's Get Freel and Two Prospects

Andy MacPhail shipped Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati yesterday for utility man Ryan Freel and two infield prospects.

Matt Wieters has made Hernandez expendable. His defense has declined and his heart didn't seem to be in it for Baltimore last season. Hernandez had really bad luck with the bat last year. His batting line of .257/.308/.406 was in stark contrast to his PrOPS line of .292/.341/.457 and he managed to hit .285/.341/.446 in the 2nd half. He hit the ball hard but didn't catch a lot of breaks. He's still got something left in the tank offensively and he'll be moving to a hitter's park in a weaker league. The Reds may get a good year at the plate from him even if they don't get a good year from him behind it.

Freel is a good glove who can play 2B, 3B and all outfield positions. I don't think he'll be able to hit his way out of a wet paper sack in the AL even if he's healthy and he's expensive at $4 million a year but a good defensive replacement and he's only signed through the end of '09.

I like that MacPhail was able to get some prospects although they are not great ones. Brandon Waring is a 22 year old 3B who hit .270 with 20 homers with the Class A Dayton Dragons. But he struck out 156 times to only 43 walks and at 22 was pretty old for that level of ball. Still, it was an .813 OPS from a thirdbaseman and he could be a late bloomer.

Justin Turner is a light hitting 2B who has shown potential to play other positions. He hit .289 at Chattanooga last year with 8 HR in 78 games and got on base at a .359 clip. Interesting guy who should start at Bowie next season at age 24.

Since we were getting rid of Hernandez anyway, this was a pretty good deal though the real impact is the room made for Matt Wieters, not the players we got in return.

Many O's fans are pretty excited to get Freel but he's not really that great at playing baseball. Great attitude, fine glove, mediocre player.

And now a word about Buck Martinez. I'm in the minority, I think, when it comes to Buck. People seem to hate Rick Dempsey and find him annoying as a color guy. I enjoy Dempsey enormously and find Martinez cringeworthy. People complain about Jim Palmer talking about what things were like when he played but at least he was a Hall of Fame pitcher! Why do I have to listen to Buck talk about his lackluster playing career or his pitiful managerial record?

Anyway, Roch talked to Buck Martinez about the Hernandez-Freel trade and in between the hurky-jerky gesticulations and spasmic shoulder shimmies, Martinez said this about Ryan Freel:

"He plays with a lot of energy. He's kinda like Brian Roberts with a lot more enthusiasm, you know, he does the same types of things."

Really. Brian Roberts with more enthusiasm? First, if I was Brian Roberts, I would be enormously offended. You think I am Ryan Freel with less enthusiasm? Really? Roberts has slugged over .400 for the last four years. He's hit double digit homers in three of the last four seasons. He has played in 138 games or more for the last 5 seasons. He hit 50 doubles last year!

Freel has never slugged .400, has a lower batting average than Roberts for his career (.284 vs. .272) and only beats out Brian's OBP by .002! Guess all that enthusiasm saps your energy. I'll take the more reserved Roberts, thanks. There's more:

"He'll bunt more than Brian Roberts. He won't steal as much but he'll steal key bases. He's a great baserunner."

Forgetting the fact that Roberts has stolen 226 career bases to Freel's 142, Freel has a career success rate of 74% to Brian's 79%. And Freel's numbers have regressed over the last three years (77%, 65%, 60%) while Roberts have gotten better (83%, 87%, 80%). There's little to support the assertion that he's a "great" baserunner. And outside of the fact that Freel can play secondbase too, he's nothing like Brian Roberts.

Freel's a nice utility player but let's not get carried away.

Base Hits: 12/9/2008

Billy Ripken comes clean about his infamous "F-Face" bat pictured on the 1989 Fleer baseball card. Originally, Ripken said he was pranked by teammates. Turns out, Ripken wrote the "offending" phrase himself...

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Kevin Millar would like to come back to the Orioles, even in a part-time role. But evidently he is interested in playing for Seattle as well. My guess is that Millar wants to keep playing...anywhere that will let him.

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The Chicago Tribune reports that a four-way deal between the Cubs, Padres Orioles and Phillies is close to completion. I don't chase a lot of Hot Stove talk but the crux of the deal for Baltimore would send Garrett Olson to San Diego and Felix Pie would come in from the Cubs. Also:

The key for that deal to work is for the Phillies or Orioles to take Jason Marquis, with the Cubs agreeing to eat some of his salary.

That's an interesting wrinkle. Marquis is not a good pitcher. But he's only under contract for one more season and if the Cubs were willing to eat 3-4 million dollars of his $9 million dollar salary, he might be a serviceable stopgap.

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MASN has announced that the Hot Stove Show is returning December 12th. Roch Kubatko will be hosting with Jim Hunter and Phil Wood. I'm glad that Roch will be on the show, the more work for him the better. I'm even happier that Phil Wood will be on the show. Wood is an excellent baseball commentator and I listened to him for years on D.C. radio. From the press release:

Phil Wood has decades of experience covering Washington and Baltimore sports teams including the Bullets, Capitals, Nationals, Orioles, Colts and Ravens. Wood is widely considered to be one of the region's brightest baseball historians, offering fans both historical perspective and insight into today's breaking sports news.

Absolutely. Look forward to seeing it.

Base Hits: 7/31/2008

Shortly after I posted yesterday, I received a press release from MASN stating that Roch Kubatko will be joining MASN and that the Roch Around the Clock blog will continue of there starting on Friday. Here's the link to the news on MASN.com. Update your bookmarks accordingly.

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It's going to be a tough August for the Birds. They only play two series against teams with losing records (Seattle and Cleveland) and they play those series on the road. Speaking of playing on the road, the O's play 16 of 28 on the road in August. The O's are only playing at a .400 winning percentage on the road this season.

It's looking like it'll be a rough August for the Baltimore Orioles.

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Not a whisper about Aubrey Huff moving at the deadline. Huff has put together one of the best seasons ever (so far) by a Oriole DH:

          OPS+  Year
H. Baines 150   1999
H. Baines 142   1995
A. Huff   140   2008
H. Baines 137   1993
Singleton 131   1983
 

Baines and Singleton...that's rarefied air in Orioles history.

He has also matched his RBI total from 2007 already and surpassed his home run numbers.

I have to grudgingly give Huff some respect for his performance this year. And I thought he was done as an impact bat. I was wrong.

O's Win Again

The umps tried to sabotage the evening by ejecting D-Cab during one of his very rare good outings. But the O's won anyway and will take the series with the Yanks.

I hope the Yanks fall a couple games short of the postseason. Baltimore could point back to these games with pride.

But that's not what I'm here to talk about...

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Bill Ordine continues to perpetuate the Mark Teixeira-may-come-to-Baltimore myth. Though he is hardly alone.

Let's set this straight. He's not coming and we don't want him! Not at $20mil per!

Tex doesn't want to come here. All that "Aw shucks, it's be great to play for the hometown team. Gawrsh, that'd be neat!" is just Tex being polite. Or being duplicitous. He says nice things about every team that shows the slightest interest.

An example from Buster Olney's ESPN blog:

"Inside the clubhouse, it was awkward. An hour before the game, with teammates in earshot, Teixeira gushed to reporters that the Angels were "the best team in baseball." While also being complimentary of his former teammates, it had a strange ring. Braves coaches recognized the situation and ushered Braves players into other areas of the clubhouse."

What a great guy. He'll say great things about whatever city he's asked about. Even at the expense of his current teammates.

More from Tex from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

"I thought I'd be here the rest of my career," he said of Atlanta. "I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on."

Teixeira said he had been "open" to hearing offers from the Braves all season, but got none. Wren said the Braves didn't believe they could re-sign him after making an "aggressive" offer during spring training and having it rejected.

The GM said the offer would have made Teixeira one of the game's highest paid players. He is making $12.5 million this season in his last year of arbitration.

Let's see. You thought you'd spend the rest of your career here but rejected an offer from the Braves that would have made you one of the game's highest paid players. You need a shovel handy when Tex talks to the press.

The guy seems to think he's a player who is the caliber of Albert Pujols or A-Rod. He's not.

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Bye Roch. We'll miss you.

Base Hits: 7/28/2008

OK, the Orioles finally broke their Sunday losing streak. Big deal.

A win is a win but they lost 5 straight coming into Sunday including three straight against Toronto. Toronto! The one AL East team that we are actually better than! Owww, quit it!

Nice to see a win but they are becoming few and far between. Excuse me if I don't celebrate.

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On a positive note, Ben at Oriole Central has a great interview with none other than Brian Roberts! Nice job Ben!

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You know you have a problem when you get your dander up about writers maligning a Baltimore Oriole from 110 years ago.

Chris Jaffe has written a two-part series where he rates the BBWA on their Hall of Fame selections and omissions for The Hardball Times. He had a problem with old-timey Oriole RF Wille Keeler:

That just leaves one man—Willie Keeler. He's way the hell back, behind (among others) Rusty Staub, Rocky Colavito, Elmer Flick, King Kelly and Sam Rice. Keeler was the sort of man who did one thing really well (hit singles), and that was about it. That's exactly the kind of guy who is normally overrated.

Keeler's a real oddity because he's the only 19th century position player they voted in. That makes his pick especially damning. If you're only going to put in one hitter from the 1890s, you damn well better get it right. They skipped over Ed Delahanty, Billy Hamilton, Hugh Duffy, Jesse Burkett and George Davis for him.

Going by runs created, Keeler was the 17th-best batter of the 1890s. Shortstop Bill Dahlen was 16th best. Wanna adjust for his not playing in 1890-1? Fine—he's still clearly not the best, yet he's the only one in. I'm more tolerant of their omissions from the Paleolithic Era, which is why a sin of commission from that time period is so bad. He's the only problem in right, though.

This is what it has come down to. Willie Keeler is overrated. Pardon me while I bang my head into the keyboard. vqwefop l;qw ecl;qwjk

I am a baseball stat nerd. But I am also a baseball nerd in general. You have to combine the nerdiness to understand Keeler as a player.

(Let me just say that I enjoy Chris Jaffe's writing immensely, I'm just going to strenuously differ with him on this point.)

First, let's look at the assertion that Keeler was the 17th best player in Runs Created during the 1890's. That's cherry-picking the numbers. Keller played well into the next decade. you are judged by your career not an arbitrary span of ten years (of which you did not even play in two of them...).

So using Jaffe's choice of stat, the leaders in Runs Created from 1890-1910 are here. Here's the top five:

                RC
Jesse Burkett  1566
Ed Delahanty   1520
Honus Wagner   1416
Willie Keeler  1378
Nap Lajoie     1351
 

Now, I'm sure that most of you aren't that familiar with turn of the century baseball stars but that is damn fine company for Keeler. 4th in baseball over a 20 year span is nothing to sneeze at.

You have to remember that Keeler played before the Deadball Era officially began. The ball was really dead in the 1890's. Keeler hit a lot of singles but that's what most of the best players did during this period in baseball. And he was a slap hitter and hit leadoff. You don't ask Tony Gwynn to jack homers!

The rest of the argument revolves around the writers not voting in Ed Delahanty. Very true that Delahanty was (and is) overlooked but that's hardly Keeler's fault.

Add to this that Keeler was considered the greatest rightfielder of his time and I think it's clear that Keeler is solidly deserving of the Hall of Fame. I mean, really.

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Roch Kubatko is leaving the Baltimore Sun according to his blog. I guess details will be forthcoming but he will be greatly missed and will leave a gaping hole in the Oriole blogosphere.

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Matt Wieters is coming. Not today, not tomorrow but soon. .333/.419/.519 at Bowie. Get to Bowie and see him so you can say "I was there when..."

Terror in Tampa and Roch Kicks 'Em When They're Down

Owwwch! Ouch..quit it!

Growing pains exacted excruciatingly by Carlos Pena and friends.

The Good: Jeremy Guthrie pitched well and the Baltimore Oriole bats were alive against Jamie Shields, a good young pitcher.

The Bad: The defense (more on that later), the bullpen and the Oriole offense not putting the game away when they had a chance.

Anyway, a rare cheap shot from the keyboard of Roch Kubatko and it was directed at Jamie Walker:

While challenging a Sun reporter in the middle of the clubhouse last week, reliever Jamie Walker said something about how it’s fine if the media wants to rip him after he messes up, “but leave my teammates alone.”

We won’t rip you, Jamie, but no more meatballs to Carlos Pena. Please. Find something else on the menu.

That situation screamed for you last night. Two men on base, a three-run lead to protect and a left-handed batter at the plate. And you hang a curveball. And a lead disappears. And a losing streak reaches three games.

I vote that we worry less about what's in the papers and more about finishing off opponents...

Walker gets paid to retire those guys and bridge the gap to George Sherrill.

Ouch. We're not going to rip you Jamie but now...we're going to rip you.

Kubatko seemingly has had these criticisms in his head, if not on his hard drive, and was waiting for the first time Walker screwed up to use them. That's fine. It's kind of like a a revenge plunking, looking out for one of his Baltimore Sun teammates. (It was Dan Connolly who got ripped by the way. Roch never wants to say his name.)

But I don't think Roch watched the game last night. Walker came in with one out and got Akinori Iwamura to hit a soft grounder to shortstop. But Luis Hernandez booted the ball off his glove and then fumbled the ball around so long he was unable to make a throw. The hometown scorer gave Iwamura a hit but that was an error. It should have been two outs with nobody on with Carl Crawford coming up. Crawford hit the first pitch for a weak Texas Leaguer to shallow center. If Luis Hernandez had taken a good route to the ball or if Adam Jones had been playing centerfield last night, that may have been the third out of the inning.

Now, to this comment: "And you hang a curveball." Dead wrong. It was a good pitch. It broke great and was placed right where Pena had swung through one for a strike two pitches before. Pena was just on fire and hit a good pitch. (Likewise, he hit a great pitch from Guthrie for an opposite field homerun. Sick. Doubly painful that the Orioles could've signed him for a song before the 2007 season.)

Jamie Walker had some bad luck and gave up a homer to a slugger who he shouldn't have had to face. The team lost the game last night Roch, not Walker alone. Again, I understand you're protecting your co-worker but it's a real cheap shot. And your motives are transparent. And you're dead wrong.

Now that that's done...Let's go O's!