Oriole Trade Monitors: End of 2010 Update

As part of my end of the year housekeeping, it's time to clean up the Oriole Trade Monitors and that includes retiring a couple of transactions that have run their course. Before I add the trades made this offseason, it's time to put a wrap on the Kris Benson and Rodrigo Lopez trades.

Orioles Trade RP Jorge Julio and SP John Maine to the Mets for SP Kris Benson.

Julio - 0 WAR
Maine - 5.0 WAR


Benson - 0.8 WAR


Advantage - Mets (+4.2)

Before the 2006 season, Baltimore sent Jorge Julio and minor league starter John Maine to New York for Kris Benson, a starting pitcher who was under contract for the next two seasons.

At the time, I loved that deal. Trading a reliever for two seasons of a starter? Sure, why not? Maine was just a throw in.

Benson underperformed in 2006 and he decided to have shoulder surgery in 2007. Julio only lasted 18 games (and was terrible) before being shipped to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez.

John Maine was another story. He turned into a serviceable back of the rotation starter, finding a strikeout pitch and being aided by pitching at Shea Stadium. The highlight was 2007 when he went 15-10, threw 191 innings and a 3.91 ERA. After that, injuries took their toll and after a bad 2010, the Mets non-tendered Maine but still got 542 innings of league average pitching out of the trade. The Mets won, hands down.

SP Rodrigo Lopez traded to the Rockies for RP Jason Burch and RP Jim Miller

Rodrigo Lopez - 1.1 WAR


Jason Burch - 0.0 WAR
Jim Miller - 0.1 WAR


Advantage - Rockies (+1.0 WAR)

Rodrigo Lopez was shipped out after he was unable to secure a spot in the starting rotation before the 2007 season. Disgruntled, he was traded to Colorado for a couple of live relief arms.

Jason Burch never got above AA for the Orioles and last pitched in 2008 for the Blue Jays system.

Jim Miller racked up impressive strikeout totals in the minors and even got a cup of coffee with the big club in 2008. While his 2009 and 2010 numbers in Norfolk were pretty decent, he never got another shot with Baltimore and now has left the organization as a minor league free agent. I would've liked to see him get a shot, especially with the likes of Frank Mata and Pedro Viola taking their turns over the 2010 season.

The Rockies got a half of a decent season out of Lopez before he got hurt so they got a good return on the deal.

Oriole Trade Monitor: A Bit of Perspective

As you may know, I update the Oriole Trade Monitors throughout the season to show how certain trades are working out for Baltimore. I measure the values in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) but I realize that is hard for most people to quantify in real life terms without a frame of reference.

So here's a frame of reference. The Glenn Davis trade of 1991, measured in WAR. Totals listed include all seasons played from the day the trade was made.

Glenn Davis: 0.1 WAR

Curt Schilling: 69.8 WAR
Pete Harnisch: 16.6 WAR
Steve Finley: 40.4 WAR

That's what a lopsided trade looks like. The Orioles gave up 126.8 WAR in talent and got just 0.1 in return. They gave up 1,268 times the value they got back!

On a happier note, the 1976 trade with the Yankees that netted Baltimore, among others, catcher Rick Dempsey. WAR is for years played with New York and Baltimore only.

Tippy Martinez: 6.0 WAR
Rudy May: 2.1 WAR
Scott McGregor: 17.5 WAR
Rick Dempsey: 20.1 WAR
Dave Pagan: -1.5 WAR

Doyle Alexander: 1.1 WAR
Jimmy Freeman: o.o WAR
Ellie Hendricks: 0.2 WAR
Ken Holtzman: -2.8 WAR
Grant Jackson: 1.6 WAR

The O's won this one 45.7 to 0.1. Yep, Rick Dempsey turned out to be the gem of that deal for Baltimore.

Hopefully, this exercise gives a bit of perspective to the Oriole Trade Monitors.

Historical WAR data taken from BaseballProjection.com. Trade data from Baseball-Reference.com.

Trade Monitors: The Overhaul, The Update

I am updating and changing up the Oriole Trade Monitor and will switching over to WAR instead of Win Shares for measurement of trade value. There are two reasons for this:

1) Win Shares are no longer being updated at The Hardball Times
2) WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is readily available on FanGraphs.com and is probably a better metric and easier to understand. It also allows for negative numbers which I think makes sense for these comparisons.

So, on with the switch, starting with the oldest trades first, in terms of WAR.


SP Kris Benson from the Mets for RP Jorge Julio and SP John Maine


Benson - 0.8 WAR

Julio - 0.0 WAR
Maine - 5.0 WAR

Benson was decent for one year, then got hurt. The principle player the Orioles gave up (Julio) was merely average for the Mets. John Maine, a throw in, has been basically an average NL starter which makes this trade a landslide for the Mets.

SP Rodrigo Lopez to the Rockies for RP Jim Miller and RP Jason Burch


Lopez - 1.1


Miller - 0.1
Burch - 0.0


At the time, the return for Lopez didn't look like much. But Lopez wasn't much himself. He pitched OK for Colorado when he wasn't hurt but was hurt a lot and only pitched one year for them.

Jim Miller on the other hand has shown flashes on the majors and AAA that he may be a serviceable big league reliever. He currently has a 1.73 ERA and 14 saves over 26 appearances for Norfolk. Jason Burch is no longer with the organization.

SS Miguel Tejada to the Astros for OF Luke Scott, RP Dennis Sarfate, RP Matt Albers, SP Troy Patton, 3B Mike Costanzo


Tejada - 4.5


Scott - 3.3
Sarfate - -0.1
Albers - 0.5
Patton - 0
Costanzo - 0


Tejada is not the player he used to be but he provides good offense at a premium defensive position (where his glove is still OK) thus nice WAR number.


Based on his decline and contract, getting anything for Tejada at the time he was traded was a bonus. Getting Luke Scott and giving him a chance to play turned out to be a genius move. Scott has played well in LF (at least last season), been a productive slugger and is a fan favorite to boot. Matt Albers is inconsistent but has been good overall. I think Albers is going to be a pretty good reliever. Dennis Sarfate has a great arm but needs work on his control. Troy Patton has recovered from shoulder surgery and has made it back to AAA. Mike Costanzo got sent back to Bowie earlier in the year. Nice glove, bad bat.



SP Erik Bedard to the Mariners for CF Adam Jones, SP Chris Tillman, RP George Sherrill, RP Kam Mickolio, RP Tony Butler


Bedard - 2.7


Jones - 3.8
Sherrill - 0.8
Tillman - 0
Mickolio - 0
Butler - 0


Bedard was having a nice season but is on the DL yet again.


Adam Jones continues to widen the gap. If MacPhail had traded Bedard for Jones straight up this deal would look like a heist. But they also got George Sherrill and turned him into a serviceable closer and Chris Tillman is the best pitching prospect in the Oriole system. Tillman is a heartbeat away from Baltimore, dominating AAA lineups at the age of 22. Mickolio is doing well at Norfolk posting a 3.81 ERA in 21 games. Tony Butler pitched in low A last season and is currently injured.



C Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for UT Ryan Freel, 3B Brandon Waring and 2B/SS Justin Turner


Hernandez - -0.1


Freel - -0.2
Waring - 0
Turner - 0

Addition by subtraction with Hernandez but Freel did plenty of damage during his short Oriole tenure. I thought Hernandez might hit a little in Cincinnati but hasn't and hasn't even been the primary catcher for the team reducing his value even more.


Brandon Waring is posting a .262/.345/.485 line in Frederick but is a little old for the league. Justin Turner has posted a .301/.356/.374 line in Norfolk, OK for a middle infielder. I've seen him play short twice and he looks pretty good in the field. He may turn out to be a nice utility man in a couple years.



SP Garrett Olson, RP Henry Williamson to the Cubs for OF Felix Pie


Olson - -0.3
Williamson - 0


Pie - 0


The Cubs shipped Olson almost immediately to Seattle for Aaron Heilman (who has been mediocre at best) and Olson has bounced between Seattle and AAA Tacoma this season. He's been a bit below average in the majors. Henry Williamson is doing well for A+ Daytona but he is a bit old for the league too.


Pie has had limited opportunities but his defense had offset the bad bat to provide replacement level production.



SP Hayden Penn to the Marlins for UT Robert Andino


Penn - -0.2


Andino - 0.3


I didn't like this trade at the time but Penn stunk in Florida and continues to stink for New Orleans. Andino's glove at short more than offsets the anemic bat and has given the Orioles good value so far.

UT Ryan Freel to the Cubs for OF Joey Gathright

Freel - -0.2


Gathright - 0

Freel has continued to suck for the Cubs. Joey Gathright will probably never contribute anything to the major league club but Baltimore still wins this trade by subtraction alone.

Trade Monitors Updated

Trade Monitors have been updated to include the two major trades of the off-season. I suppose if we ever figure out who we're sending to Chicago for Rich Hill, I'll add that too.

I am taking down the Chris Britton for Jaret Wright trade. The Yankees got 2 WS out of Britton over two seasons and waived him this offseason. Britton performed well when he got a chance in 2007 but suffered thorough injuries in '08. On the other hand, the Orioles got only 10.3 innings from Wright during his Oriole career. The aftermath? Neither team got much value out of this trade. Wright's career is over and Britton was picked up on a minor league deal by San Diego.

I also added the Rodrigo Lopez trade. I had forgotten about it by the time I put the Trade Monitor together but seeing Jim Miller on the Spring Training invite list jogged my memory.

Base Hits: 10/2/2008

Well, the one last thing I was rooting for the last week of the season was for Nick Markakis to walk 100 times this season. Sure, it was just a way to keep interested during the last few games of yet another losing season but I was pulling for him nonetheless!

Nick lost his bid to become the third player in Oriole history to join the 100-100 club by one walk. 99 walks for the season. Still, the season was another nice step forward in his career. But more on that later...

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It's this time of year when I put away my Oriole loyalties and start following...the West Oahu Canefires and the Surprise Rafters!

Yes, it's time for the fall and winter leagues and the Orioles continue to play, albeit as different entities.

2007 4th round pick Tim Bascom heads the list of players playing in Hawaii this winter and the Canfires are undefeated on the young season at 4-0.

The real glamour players for the O's minor league system are in Surprise this year. C MAtt Wieters, OF Noland Reimold (for the third straight fall) and top 2008 pick Brian Matusz will all represent the Orioles against the best talent in the minors this fall in Surprise, Arizona. Games start next week.

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Win Shares on the trade monitor are complete for the year. Again, I always like these trades in the long run but had no idea that Adam Jones would outperform Erik Bedard by himself in the first season of the trade! Likewise, I liked the addition of Luke Scott but had no clue that he would nearly make up for the Miguel Tejada's offense by himself. An there are 8 other players we got back in those trades. We may be able to point to those trades in three years as the point where the Orioles turned the corner to becoming a winning organization again.

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At long last, Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum has finished his hike of the Appalachian Trail. More than 2000 miles from Georgia to Maine that took him the better part of the baseball season. Congrats to him!

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I'll be quiet with posting (probably for the next week and a half) while I am in Belgium next week. If you're interested in such things, you can follow along at Bottles of Barley. But you never know, a layover at an airport, a delayed flight might prompt me to do some Oriole blogging during the trip as well.

Base Hits: 4/2/2008

Patrick Smith who covers the Orioles for Bugs and Cranks makes an interesting observation that Luke Scott strode to the plate on Monday to the song "I Wanna Be Your Dog" by The Stooges. Not your typical ballpark music to be sure...

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Anthony has some nice pics of the Orioles FanFest from this past weekend over at Oriole Post.

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Speaking of nice pics, The New York Times has a great slideshow uncovering "The Unseen Yankee Stadium".

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Misplaced optimism abounds on the Oriole Blogosphere (most of it right here) and I love The Wayward O's analogy of the youthful Orioles as cuddly baby polar bear.

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Ben reads between the lines over at Oriole Central and suspects we'll see Mike Costanzo in the majors sooner than many expect.

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Oriole Trade Monitor Update: I'm taking down the Corey Patterson trade as it appears to have reached its conclusion. Unless Nate Spears catches fire and actually makes the Cubs roster at some point in the next two years, the scoreboard reads Corey Patterson 22 Win Shares, Nate Spears and Carlos Perez 0 WS between them.

A fine trade for Patterson who delivered stellar defense, great base running and a serviceable, if inconsistent bat in center for two seasons. O's win this one hands down