Jeremy Guthrie Still Has Value In The Oriole Rotation

With Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta pitching well for Norfolk, there has been some talk of replacing Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation after his wretched start last night against the Yankees, a game in which he gave up 6 Earned Runs in just 4.2 innings. But I think that's throwing out the baby with the bathwater at this point.

Guthrie's peripheral based stats:

                FIP    xFIP    K    BB    HR
Guthrie '10    3.90    4.45   18     6     3

That is over 30.2 innings (second only to Kevin Millwood's 32.0 innings for Baltimore) and good for a WAR of 0.5 over 5 starts. (Also second on the team behind Brian Matusz's 0.7 WAR.)

The guy is pitching a little better than his ERA would lead you to believe and it's no fluke (a .302 BABIP is actually a bit higher than his average over the past three seasons). Even after last night, and we have to remember this Oriole fans, it was only one game, he is still the second most valuable pitcher on the team. In Millwood and Guthrie, the Orioles have two pitchers who can reasonably be expected to be at least league average and pitch into the 6th inning every night.

Have you seen the bullpen? Guthrie has value if for no other reason that he can eat innings. Hopefully Dave Trembley realizes that even if some of the fans don't.

Anatomy of a No-Hitter

Chris Tillman hurled a no-hitter against the Gwinnett Braves last night...right in my back yard. (I'm going to tonight's game...damn it.)

Here was Tillman's line:

            IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR
Tillman    9.0   0   0    0    1    6    0
 

Only 6 strikeouts over the 9 innings. Tillman got a lot of help from his friends. A breakdown of the outs:

Groundball   Liner   Flyball   Pop Fly
    13         2        2         4
 

That's impressive. Only 2 flies and 2 liners (both liners, fortunately for Tillman, were hit at CF Corey Patterson....a superior defender).

Now, Gwinnett has the lowest Team OPS in the International League (.627) but it's an impressive feat nonetheless. Congratulations to Tillman and his fielders on the accomplishment.

LF Joey Gathright
CF Corey Patterson
RF Jeff Salazar
3B Josh Bell
SS Robert Andino
2B Scott Moore
1B Michael Aubrey
C Adam Donachie


I'm going to see the Tides take on Gwinnett tonight...I wonder if Jake Arrieta can make it back-to-back no-hitters?

Loving Ty Wigginton

After the Orioles signed Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada in the offseason, it looked like the writing was on the wall for Ty Wigginton. There was no way I though they would pay Wigginton to sit on the bench but the injury to Brian Roberts during Spring Training may have led The Warehouse to keep him around as insurance. (Wigginton is not a good fielder at second base but at least he would be an option.)

And it's lucky that Wigginton is still here because he has been carrying this moribund offense all season. The line on Wigginton:

           AVG  OBP  SLG OPS+ wOBA  WAR  HR 
Wigginton .327 .410 .712 199  .464  .80   6
 

Sick, sick numbers. Now let me throw a little cold water on Wigginton's performance...it can't last.

But there is a bright side. This performance is not altogether fluky based on the peripherals. Wigginton has a BABIP of .289 compared to a career mark of .297 so he's coming by these numbers honestly, it's not all a product of lucky breaks.

His HR/FB ratio is 35.3% compared to a career mark of 13.1%. That will come down...but maybe not as far as you might think. Career years happen. Look at the 2008 version of Aubrey Huff.

This is what ZIPS projects Wigginton to do for the rest of the year:

           AVG  OBP  SLG OPS+ wOBA HR 
Wigginton .283 .340 .480 199  .355 17
 

...which would leave him with a final line of:

           AVG  OBP  SLG wOBA HR 
Wigginton .289 .349 .508 .370 23
 

If I would have told you that Ty Wigginton had a good shot at OPSing .850+ before the season, would you have believed me?

If Dave Trembley is smart, he'll trot Ty out there nearly every single day for the rest of the season. This is going to be Wigginton's career year...so ride the wave.

How The Orioles Got Rhyne Hughes

The obvious answer to the above title is, "He was the PTBNL in the Gregg Zaun deal with the Rays." But there is more to it than that.

When Andy MacPhail took over as President of Baseball Operations in June of 2007, he took to overhauling the Oriole farm system. His first task was to acquire all the quality arms he could get. But he also saw that the prospects at the corner infield positions were thin, to say the least. There were only two 1B/3B prospects of note: Billy Rowell and Brandon Snyder, both former 1st round picks, both flawed in their own ways and both way down the ladder in Delmarva.

MacPhail knew he needed more depth at the corners in the minor league system and many of the trades he's made since have focused on getting upper-level prospects at a discount.

Some of his acquisitions of note:

August 2007 - Acquired 3B Scott Moore from Cubs
December 2007 - Acquired 3B Mike Costanzo from Astros
January 2008 - Signed 1B/3B Oscar Salazar
December 2008 - Acquired 3B Brandon Waring from Reds
June 2009 - Drafted 1B Tyler Townsend in 3rd Rd
June 2009 - Acquired 1B Michael Aubrey from Indians
July 2009 - Acquired 3B Josh Bell from Dodgers
August 2009 - Acquired 1B Rhyne Hughes from Rays

Some guys flamed out (Costanzo), some are still toiling in the minors (Waring, Moore) and some have contributed already (Salazar, Aubrey and now Hughes). The point is, MacPhail increased the depth, gave up little for any of these guys and is now seeing the fruits of this labor in Rhyne Hughes. Hughes may not be a long-term solution but you never know. He certainly offers a short-term upgrade over Garrett Atkins.

(All of this makes the $4.5 million deal for Atkins all the more frustrating. There were plenty of cheaper internal options that could have reasonably duplicated or exceeded his performance.)

Some things in baseball don't change. Branch Rickey said,"From quantity comes quality." and with MacPhail increasing the minor league talent at the corner infield positions, he seems to have found some quality in it. This is not to say that those positions are now strengths in the system...just that it is no longer moribund and it was improved without spending millions.

Brad Bergesen Returning From Norfolk? Slow Down...

Brad Bergesen makes his first, and perhaps only start for Triple-A Norfolk tomorrow. A quality outing could lead him back to the Orioles and that May 1 start against the Red Sox at Camden Yards. - Roch Kubatko

Brad Bergesen wins in his first (maybe only?) start at Triple-A Norfolk. - Baltimore Sun Sports Twitter Account

Sunday, (Bergesen) went 7.0 and gave up just 2 ER...He should have May 1 circled on his calendar as his return to the Orioles as a starter and a bus ticket to Baltimore in hand. - Camden Chat

Do these guys know something I don't?

And do they remember how horrible Bergesen looked in his three major league starts?

So why would Bergesen go to Norfolk for a single start and come back to Baltimore? One solid start against AAA hitters is not enough for me to regain confidence. If you're going to use his option under the premise that he needed to work on his sinker and control, I sincerely doubt that he put everything together in one start. At least three would be my preference.

Besides, he's not the only option. Jason Berken can make a couple of spot starts (on May 1st and the 6th) or he could even split those two starts with Mark Hendrickson. After that, the Orioles wouldn't need their 5th starter until May 16th. If Bergesen is still mowing down the International League, bring him up then.

Or...give Jake Arrieta the call. Jake's line from AAA this season:

           IP    K   BB   HR    ERA   WHIP
Arrieta   25.0  23   10    0   0.36   0.92
 
 

In addition, he is inducing a 53.7% groundball rate and has only given up 4 extra base hits this season. (By the way, Bergesen gave up 3 extra base hits, including a home run, for Norfolk on Sunday) Arrieta now has 21 starts in AAA and, even with some initial struggles after his promotion last year, has a 3.16 ERA over those starts. If you're going to pull the trigger and call someone up from Norfolk, Arrieta's the man...and Bergesen's start wasn't as sparkling as it looks in the boxscore.


When it comes to Jake Arrieta, Baseball Prospectus agrees. (subscription)

Young Starters, The Bullpen and Perspective

The losing streak is making people mental. Even the beat reporters. This is what Peter Schmuck wrote following Saturday's game:

Though I understand the logic of removing Brian Matusz from tonight's game after he allowed two baserunners in the seventh inning, I've reached the point -- and I bet Matusz agrees with me -- where I believe he deserves a chance to get out of that jam. Once again, a pitcher gets taken out because he hit the magic 100-pitch count, but I thought the idea was to make these guys go farther into the game.

The fact that Matusz walked a guy and gave up a hit doesn't mean that he's not the best guy to pitch to the next batter, especially when the O's bullpen has given Dave Trembley little reason to be confident that the game isn't about to blow up in his face -- as it did again tonight....

It isn't Trembley's fault that the bullpen can't nail down a game, but at some point he's going to have to find out if Matusz is good enough to get out of a late-inning jam. If not tonight, then when?

I'm not picking on Schmuck; others on the Orioles beat expressed similar sentiments if not so stridently. And I would expect this kind of emotional reaction from the fans.

But Pete, calm down.

I'm a big fan of the "one more batter" technique. A guy's approaching his "pitch limit" at the end of the 6th, let him come out for "one more batter" to see what happens. If he gets that guy out, let him face "one more batter". Continue until he gives up a solid hit or walks somebody. It stretches out the pitcher a bit but doesn't put the guy in a position to hurt the team if he's gassed.

Dave Trembley did that on Saturday. He brought Matusz back out for "one more batter" and Matusz walked him. Trembley left him out for "one more batter" again and gave up a hit. He gave Matusz the opportunity to work into the 7th and he didn't quite have it. Going to the bullpen at that point was not an incorrect decision...people just didn't like the outcome.*

But the real issue here is Matusz and his development. I will ALWAYS side with the philosophy that errs on the side of caution when it comes to developing young starters. There's just too much at stake in pushing a potential ace like Matusz too far, too fast.

What would the O's have gotten out of it if they had left Matusz out there for 120 pitches and won the game? Get to 3-15 instead of 2-16? Whoopee. That's worth a gamble? Uh, thanks but no thanks. It's that kind of short term thinking that has plagued the Orioles' player development for more than a decade and has gotten poor results more often than not.

I thought this team could (and may still) make a run at .500 but the reality is that they're not getting the breaks they need. And even that goal is not worth rushing prospects or pushing young arms before they're ready.

Let's not forget that.

*Of course, I don't get pitching Matt Albers two straight games when Jason Berken and Cla Meredith are rotting on the bench. Albers has been fine this season outside of two outings...both came after they tried pitching him on back-to-back days. There are other arms in the bullpen that seem underutilized.

Rhyne Hughes Recalled Form Norfolk. What Does That Mean?

1B Rhyne Hughes has been recalled from AAA Norfolk and will join the team in Boston. No corresponding roster move has been announced.

Hughes is a 26-year-old (who looked larger than the 6'2" height and 215 lb weight he is listed at in Spring Training) who was acquired from the Tampa in the Gregg Zaun deal last season. He was an 8th round pick in 2004. Since 2008, he has slugged north of .500 in the minors.

This could mean a few different things:

1. The team has decided that is made a horrible mistake by signing Garrett Atkins, are eating his contract and giving Hughes a shot to hold down first base.

2. The team finds Justin Turner or Julio Lugo redundant and are either sending down Turner or releasing Lugo.

3. The team will let Hughes play left and send down Lou Montanez.

4. The team is sending down a reliever and Hughes will provide an extra bench player.

While I would like for #1 to be true, it probably isn't. The team is not going to eat that contract in April.

#3 is unlikely as well since Montanez has not played any worse than anyone else and Nolan Reimold has not looked that great with the glove in left; no sense if bringing in another questionable outfield glove in Hughes.

And I don't see Dave Trembley going with an 11-man bullpen.

So, one of the middle infielders is going...probably Turner since he has options. While I think I've seen enough of Lugo as this point, I don't think the team is giving up on him yet.

Anyway, Hughes is coming up to provide some offense for a team that is struggling at the plate. Hughes in OPSing 1.088 in Norfolk so the Orioles are hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle.

Ripken: "I Had Dinner With Mr. Angelos Last Night."

With all the hubbub given to the original Ken Rosenthal story about Cal Ripken and Peter Angelos earlier this week, people have paid much less attention to the denial by Angelos and the statement released by Ripken.

Anyway, Cal addressed the issue again yesterday on Ripken Baseball, his weekly radio show that he and brother Billy host every Friday on XM's MLB Network Radio. Below is the transcript of what Cal said about the controversy. I thought some of it was interesting and the Rosenthal story (the meat of it anyway) looks more and more like weak sauce.

(This reads a little stilted in text form but I was trying to be as accurate with the transcript as possible.)

Billy Ripken: ...I just figured I'd give you some airtime here and talk about the O's...and you. Because that was a story and, uh, that was out there and I know that some stuff kind of happened and I saw your statement that was issued. It's nice that I read your statements instead of just ask you about it 'cause I know it's going to come out sooner or later. And, you know, the fact of the matter is, you played in Baltimore your entire career, you have a relationship with Peter Angelos, you're in the same city now that Andy MacPhail resides in and works in...you guys are bound to have conversations from time to time.

Cal Ripken, Jr.: (laughs) Well, we've made it a point to meet pretty regularly. I value his opinion on many different things and many times we've disagreed and we've said things, you know, and almost to make each other mad I think. But, you know, I was on a college visit with my son and I got up early in the morning and my Blackberry started blowing up with people telling me that there's this stuff out there. And I honestly didn't really want to deal with it then, it was the time to actually visit the school and really not take your attention away from what you're really supposed to. So then I had to come back and deal with that.

And my experience, and I said it in the statement, is when things go bad, when they go really bad, then this is when these stories have the biggest legs. And certainly there were some elements of the story that were true, certainly I've talked to Andy MacPhail specifically about a role with the organization and I've talked to Peter Angelos about that. And as I've said, you know, the talks are ongoing and they're continuing, you know, with no direct timetable but it's an interest. I know that I'd like to get back into the game, I think, but on my timetable, it is when my last kid, in this case, Ryan, goes off to school, I'm looking at that sort of timetable. So it's not really this urgent thing.

And I wondered if the Orioles got off to an 11-1 start, would there have been any legs to the story at all?

BR: No.

CR: You know, would it have even been thought of or brought up? But it seems like the intention of the story is to create some sort of rift and I think that the fact of the matter is that it was never said that Mr. Angelos didn't want to do anything for fear of giving me credit for a turnaround. That just wasn't said. That just wasn't true. But there were some elements of truth to it...was that we actually have talked and are talking about, you know, things that deal with the Orioles at the big league level so...that's all it is, nothing more than that and I don't have anything more to report. Matter of fact, I had dinner with Mr. Angelos last night.

BR: Uh-oh! Breaking news! Right here! Today! (chuckling)

CR: (chuckling) And then leaving there, one of the persons in the restaurant said "Have you guys cut a deal?" And we both kind of laughed and said "Not yet."

BR: Well, I'm glad you gave me that insider information because I'm going to be up here on the desk tonight up here in New Jersey at the network. I'm going there. "Junior had dinner with Peter Angelos last night." It's out there.

CR: Details to follow.

BR: Perfect!

Running the Gauntlet: Testing the Oriole Mettle Over 12 Brutal Games

Running the Gauntlet - The condemned soldier was stripped to the waist and had to pass between a double row of cudgeling or switching comrades...Running the gauntlet was considered far less of a dishonor than a beating on the pillory, pranger, or stocks, since one could "take it like a man" upright and among soldiers...if the condemned was able to finish the run and exit the gauntlet at the far end, his faults would be deemed paid, and he would rejoin his comrades with a clean slate.

The next 12 games for the Orioles are their baseball equivalent of The Gauntlet. How they emerge from the other side will show if the season is completely lost or if they can regain some dignity.

The Orioles have stumbled to a 2-14 record. Now, they play the next 12 games against the mighty New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, the two best monied and best comprised teams in baseball. Sure, some of these games are at home but we all know that those really won't be home games. They will all be in hostile territory. This stretch was supposed to be tough before. Now that the team is 2-14, it looks insurmountable.

But the team (and the manager) has one thing going for it...there is nothing left to lose.

Nobody expects the Orioles to win any of these series. Certainly, nobody expects them to win more than 2 of the next 12. So now we see what they're made off. Will they lay down or will they fight? Here's your chance to shock the baseball world and stick it to you AL East rivals. Imagine how much wailing and gnashing of teeth there will be in those cities if you take even ONE series of the next four. The Orioles can look the giant in the eye and then spit in it.

They need to claw, fight, cheat and steal over these next 12 games. If anybody has a corked bat, time to break it out. If Kevin Millwood knows any tricks involving Vaseline from the brim of his hat, it's time implement that plan. Spike the second baseman. Throw high and tight to the cleanup hitter. Take out the pitcher if he's in the baseline.

If you want to lay down, fine. But there are no expectations for this team right now. Seize the opportunity and rise to the level of your competition.

It's time to "take it like a man" and outlast your beatings over the next 12 games. If you survive and walk out the other side, you might just find yourselves with a clean slate heading into June.

Definiton and image from Wikipedia

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Acceptance Edition

Roar from 34 looks at the ultimate good news/bad news situation. The Orioles pitching staff has been racking up quality starts. But they haven't been winning any of them.

Camden Crazies delves deep into the question..."Where the hell if the offense?"

Camden Depot has a quick graph showing Nick Markakis' walk rate and how it has diminished over the past week or so. Indeed, Nick has no walks and 9 strikeouts over the past 9 games, something he'll need to turn around if he is to have lasting success this season. I would imagine this is a sign that he is pressing a bit, feeling the need to swing the bat more with the offense in a funk. But for now, it's working.

Baltimore Sports Report breaks down the upcoming series in Boston.

It could always be worse. At least the Orioles are not the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.

Chris Stoner at Baltimore Sports and Life looks ahead to what he hopes to see from the rest of the Oriole season. It certainly better than focusing on the present.

Over at Camden Chat, sandalfan believes that the Oriole's woes are best explained by one phenomenon...bad luck.

Patrick Smith imagines Andy MacPhail having a sit-down with Dave Trembley. This is a week old but unfortunately, still very relevant.

Not really the Blog-O-Sphere but Shorebirds announcer Bret Lasky has an interview with former Oriole and current Delmarva coach Mike Devereaux. I know Bret did an interview with Matt Hobgood...looking forward to hearing that.

Trembley Explodes! Too Little, Too Late?

Orioles manager Dave Trembley reportedly gave the team a piece of his mind yesterday. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun:

If you had April 21 in the "When will Dave Trembley blow his stack" pool, collect your prize. The Orioles manager had a brief, but apparently noisy, team meeting tonight to get after his players for both their effort and execution in recent days. Trembley said it wasn't one play or sequence that set him off, but rather a collection of them. I'd say Julio Lugo's hustle down the first base line and the Orioles' getting leadoff doubles in two innings last night and not budging the runners were at the top of the list.

Does this seem a bit disingenuous and forced to anyone else? I mean, if you were the manager and you were really bothered by the team not hitting the runners over or, especially, by Lugo's lack of hustle and the team was in the middle of a 2-14 streak, wouldn't you kind of blow your stack right then and there? Why would you get everyone together the day after to express your displeasure? Is this a last ditch effort by Trembley to show that he can be a tough guy when he needs to be?

Well, he's not that guy. It may serve him well in most instances but not in this one.

Meanwhile, some of the players are defending Trembley. Says Nick Markakis:

"I don't think you can blame Trembley," Markakis said. "We're the ones out there pitching and hitting. I think he's done a good job overall. There's only so much a manager can do. The rest of it is up to the players. If you're going to point fingers, you can put it on my shoulders. I'm not swinging the bat the way I'd like to.

Markakis is hardly to guy to be pointing fingers at. He's been hitting .324 and slugging .459 over the last 9 games...if only everyone was hitting so poorly.

Looking for The Clutch

What have to Orioles been missing this year? Sure, the offense but what do you hear most often?

"The big hit"

"Situational hitting"

"Hitting with runners in scoring position"

"Runners left on base"

"Coming through in the clutch"

These are the things that are missing if you ask your average Oriole fan.

I believe in clutch hitting. How can I not? It happens everyday. But it is rarely predictive or repeatable.

So how do we measure it? Most times it is measured with batting average with runners in scoring position (BARISP) but that is a pretty volatile stat to use for individual players (and whole teams for that matter).

There are a number of other stats which show how a batter "moves the needle" for his team in a positive or negative direction. Most of you probably know about WPA (or WPA/LI)which I have highlighted with the WPA Graphs I borrow from FanGraphs.com but there are more. Sticking with FanGraphs, there is also RE24 and Clutch. (For explanations of the above terms, click the links for the FanGraphs definitions...they explain it much better than I can.)

So for reference, here are the WPA/LI Oriole Leaders for the last 3 years.

Orioles' WPA/LI Last Three Seasons

             WPA/LI    Year
A. Huff        2.990     2008
N. Markakis    2.939     2008
B. Roberts     1.867     2008
L. Scott       1.493     2009
N. Markakis    1.359     2007
B. Roberts     1.147     2007
B. Roberts     1.057     2009

And the RE24...

Orioles' RE24 Last Three Seasons

            RE24      Year
A. Huff        36.449    2008
N. Markakis    35.097    2008
B. Roberts     23.184    2008
L. Scott       18.031    2009
N. Markakis    17.748    2007
B. Roberts     17.664    2009
B. Roberts     17.217    2007

And the Clutch numbers which are interesting because they compare the high leverage performance of a player to their baseline performance:


Orioles' Clutch Numbers Last Three Seasons

                 Clutch      Year
Brian Roberts      1.2       2009
Adam Jones         0.91      2009
Nick Markakis      0.78      2007
Corey Patterson    0.58      2007
Melvin Mora        0.56      2008
Ramon Hernandez    0.49      2008
Brian Roberts      0.4       2007
Brian Roberts      0.34      2008
Adam Jones         0.3       2008

OK, who walked around in 2007 saying, "Man, that Corey Patterson is so clutch!"?

And before this season, Adam Jones had been pretty clutch.

But I think we can see the name that shows up on all these lists the most...Brian Roberts. You can't overestimate how integral Roberts has been to the Oriole offense over the past three years. Only Nick Markakis is even close in terms of contributing to Oriole wins. Roberts moves the needle in the Orioles' favor far more than any other batter on the roster.

Now, most of the team is slumping and you have to think they will turn it around eventually. But this offense may not start clicking until Roberts returns. And that's weeks away.

Is It Over For Brad Bergesen?

Last September, I wrote this about Brad Bergesen:

I was watching as the line drive rocketed off his leg and he limped, hopped, stumbled and ultimately collapsed in the tunnel heading toward the locker room. I figured that he would not be back at that moment...damn Oriole luck. And although I am generally an optimist, consider this; an unconventional control pitcher like Bergesen needs everything to go right for him to have success and a lot of that comes from a repeatable delivery. Chien-Ming Wang was one of the best pitchers in the AL for a couple seasons, hurt his leg and was never the same. Cross you fingers for Mr. Bergesen.

That layoff from pitching due to his injury has affected Bergesen more than even I imagined. He and Rick Krantz both admit that his sinker won't sink, he is struggling with his control and getting lit up.

Jeff Zrebiec reports that Bergesen is likely headed for Norfolk which is probably for the best right now. He needs to get his delivery down again is he hopes to survive in the majors.

Look for Jason Berken or Jake Arrieta to join the rotation soon.

edit: Zrebiec is reporting that Bergesen will report to Norfolk, Alberto Castillo is being recalled and the team will go with 4 starters fof the time being.

Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Anatomy of a Streak-Breaker

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com:




As you would expect, Ty Wigginton was the offensive hero with .252 WPA for the game, a total that will rank among the best of the year. Nick Markakis chipped in with a .092 WPA. Brian Matusz had .108 WPA with 6.1 IP and Jim Johnson, a recent goat, kicked in .062 WPA in 2 innings of relief.

Can the winning continue? Maybe. But the injuries hurt, pun unintended.

OF Felix Pie, 2B Brian Roberts and likely 3B Miguel Tejada will miss the series with Seattle. That hurts the struggling offense. But if there's one offense on the level of Baltimore's, it's the Mariners.

Seattle has only scored 3 more runs than the O's and that's good news for Brad Bergesen. If he can't get back on track in a pitcher's park (Safeco) against a punchless lineup (only 5 homers all season), then he may never get it back.

The bottom line is that the O's have a puncher's chance in this series.

As a bonus, you'll get to see 2B Justin Turner (perhaps a player in the middle infield for Baltimore in 2011) and OF Lou Montanez (who has been buried in Norfolk by Baltimore's infield depth). Yeah, that won't help the W-L ledger but I've been curious to see how Turner will handle big league pitching and all those "Sweet Lou" worshippers should come out of the woodwork to hope that Lou shows enough to at least be trade fodder in July.

I'm sure you're all sick of my sunny optimism by now but...Let's Go O's!

ESH Fantasy League Update: 4/19/10

We're a couple weeks into the season and I thought I check up to see how my team in the Eutaw Street Hooligans league was doing. Here was the pre-season commentary from the ESH crew on my team, Ghost of Joe Kelly.

Not sure how I feel about this team. Three Red Sox, Johnny Damon, Denard Span, Placido Polanco? Rough. Slightly above average offense on the starting side. Bench, not so sure. Average pitching.

Of course, I am King of the Waiver Wire. Not that they would know that. So I made a few moves in the preseason to help the cause. The results so far?

Wait. What's this? You mean the guy who talked no preseason trash at all is comfortably in first place? Let's take a look here...

The only real competition is in the Top 5 already. Only two of them are bloggers (as far as I know) as Matt from Baltimore Sports Report (Real Pit Beef) and ESH's Tom Ludlow (Det. Tom Ludlow) bring up the rear of the Top 5. My only real competition at this point comes from ESH readers (I presume). Kevin Paul of Wife Hates Baseball and Stacey of Camden Chat (The Kekambas) are doing their best to emulate the Baltimore Orioles in their fantasy lives. (Especially Stacey...a distant 16th!) Time to step up your games Blog-O-Sphere!

So how have a managed this domination so early in the season?

1. Saves - I lead the league in Saves with a conglomerate of Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, Octavio Dotel and Chris Perez. the lesson? You don't need a top shelf closer to compete in this category.

2. WHIP - The team of "average" starters stands at second in WHIP, a good sign that my mediocre (6th) ERA will improve.

3. OBP - Ghost of Joe Kelley is second in OBP with a .381 mark and, as a result, is also second in runs scored.

4. The Waiver Wire - Ian Desmond, Shaun Marcum, David Freese, Brad Ziegler, Chris Perez and Jake Fox were all picked up off of waivers and all, to some degree, have been key players thus far. (Once Fox qualifies at catcher, even more impact.)

Anyway, the panic is starting to set in and I will be out there on the waiver wire waiting to take advantage. And soon, it will be the ennui and inactivity that will allow me to increase my lead. It is futile, I understand.

By the way, who is Joe Kelley? He's this guy.

Angelos Turns Down Ripken! Why Let Facts Get in the Way?

As you all know buy now, a Ken Rosenthal story surfaced on Friday that Cal Ripken, Jr. had approached the Orioles about a job in The Warehouse but was refused by Peter Angelos. A story like that is red meat for Oriole fans who pounced on it with all the enthusiasm and angst you would expect.

To be fair, if this story wasn't about Peter Angelos it wouldn't even be plausible. Angelos has made quite the bed over the years with his meddling, egotistical dealing with the team.

But it just seems like an odd story. The Orioles already work with Ripken in other ways. He owns the Aberdeen Ironbirds, an Oriole affiliate and Cal is involved with the Sarasota spring training deal with a Ripken Baseball Academy being built near Ed Smith Stadium. Why would they be so averse to partnering with Ripken in other ways?

Add to this the fact that Angelos, wisely, went public to deny the story and further stated that if Cal wanted to work for the team, he was more than happy to listen.

But the denial doesn't have the legs that the original rumor has. Even this morning, the Cal snub is being referred to by many media outlets with no hint of the denial. And even on blogs where the denial is acknowledged, the slicing and dicing of Angelos' words is hysterical (in more ways than one). "He must be evil! This must be true!"

But Peter Schmuck has it right...it doesn't really matter one way or the other.

Never mind that Angelos publicly rebutted the story and unequivocally denied that any offer from Cal had been made or refused. This really isn't about who actually said what and when. It's about a set of preconceived notions — some accurate, some not — that reached a hazardous intersection at the same time and caused another collision between fact and fantasy...

No matter how much Orioles Nation romanticizes Ripken, he has no experience running a major league baseball franchise, and he certainly has no experience in the kind of crisis management necessary to turn around this particular organization...

It might simply force fans to face an even harsher reality — that even Cal Ripken cannot save the Orioles.


And this is completely correct. I love Cal Ripken but he's not magic. It would be cool if he was involved in the organization, especially in the minors. And I'd like to hear Cal's side of the story. But this is hardly worth getting worked up about. O's fans are resembling Red Sox fans more every day.

edit: Cal has released a statement.

Nestor is looking to spin this as a "ball's in your court" volley from Cal...looks to me like they've had vague discussions at best. Cal also refutes the statement that Angelos did not want Cal to get credit for a turnaround in Baltimore.

1-10

Delmarva Shorebirds...Some Video

Nothing soothes my baseball psyche like minor league baseball. And in the midst of the Baltimore losing streak, I could use some soothing.

Here's some (shaky) video from the Delmarva Shorebird's recent swing south.

Matt Hobgood's A-ball Debut:




Mike Devereaux Throwing BP



SP Tony Butler Throwing to C Justin Dalles in the Bullpen:



Shorebirds 2B Tyler Kelly's Grounder With Eyes



1B Tyler Kolodny Hits a Sac Fly



Greensboro SS Get A Ball in the Face



C Justin Dalles Puts One in the Gap

Around The Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Panic Button Edition

1-8.

What do I say to that?

BFD.

How can I say that?

The peripherals.

Fans are acting like this team is heading in the wrong direction because they started 6-3 last season and started 2010 1-8.

Is this team really worse than the 2009 version? Absolutely not. The reasons outlined in this post still apply. The starting staff is better, the overall talent on offense is better, there is help on the way, and soon, from the farm system.

Does anybody remember the stretch over April/May 2009 when the O's went 3-14? 3-14! Better or worse than this stretch we're watching?

Get a grip. Just because this stretch starts the season makes it no worse. Growing pains. We'll have 'em.

And quit bringing up 1988. Let Grandpa Blogger tell you something. This ain't 1988. I lived through 1988! It was my baseball Vietnam!

Through the first 9 games of this season, Baltimore has been outscored 49-27. In 1988, they were outscored 61-14! And heartbreaking losses? The loss in the Brian Matusz game the other night pales in comparison to watching Mike Boddicker throw a complete game and give up only one run (while striking out 10 and walking none by the way) only to lose 4-3 to the Royals! Eddie Murray and Billy Ripken made the errors to give up the unearned runs! Or how about watching Mike Morgan throw 9 shutout innings only to lose 1-0 to Cleveland in 11? And you're going to punk out over a 1-8 streak? Don't come to me for compassion! Man up or go get your pink Red Sox hat and join The Nation! Quit 'yer whining!

1988...come back to reality.

Anyway, around the Blog-O-Sphere...

Roar From 34 says it all in the title to this post: O's Fans Should Be Waving Rally Towels, Not White Flags
Dempsey's Army raises our standard with you Matt!

Chris at Baltimore Sports Life looks in great detail at the 1-8 streak

Dave Mc of Weaver's Tantrum ponders the arguments for and against a managerial change.

The Eutaw Street Hooligans offer a dose of calm in the face of Oriole fan panic

Camden Crazies goes deep into the numbers and finds that while things are bad, they aren't as bad as you think..