The Week in Chat: 5/28/12

Dan Szymborski, Fangraphs.com

12:05 Comment From Dauer With Power
Still a lot of deep-engine work left to do to turn the O's into a winning franchise, but Dan Duquette's got a winning team now. What do you want to see him do at the deadline?

12:06 Dan Szymborski:
I expect the O's to be a bit off the pace by that point, hopefully pressure from the brainuntrustworthy upstairs won't make them go all-in now.

12:29 Comment From sds
Dan, if Dylan Bundy could replicate his early-season single-A performances (3 IP, 0 hits, 5 Ks) at the MLB level every five days, how valuable would that be? More than a LAIM like Bruce Chen?

12:30 Dan Szymborski:
That could be useful in very creative hands, but baseball's thinking doesn't usually allow that kind of experimentation. Also, you usually get creative with a guy with a more limited skillset - the O's probably aren't going to have Bundy in the majors until they think he's ready for a full workload

12:55 Comment From The Oriole Bird
Someone in the Orioles' front office was reading your last chat. I asked about Xavier Avery, and they called him up. He has not disappointed. Do you think he'll actually try to steal a base this year?

12:55 Dan Szymborski:
Hasn't he already? Didn't he have one over the weekend?

1:02 Comment From The Oriole Bird
Over/ under on Orioles' true-talent win percentage, if you include soon to return players, like Reynolds and Reimold: .440?

1:02 Dan Szymborski:
81. Lower if we're including injuries here.

1:22 Comment From STiVo
Machado's development seems on track. How will the O's screw this up?

1:23 Dan Szymborski:
They could always decide he's too tall to be in the middle infield or something and move him to 3rd

1:31 Comment From Steve
Wouldn't the Orioles want Youkilis? What could they trade for him?

1:32 Dan Szymborski:
They probably wouldn't trade much. At least he can field 3B.

2:15 Comment From Dan Szymborski
Jason Hammel and Jake Arrieta. Both underrated?

2:15 Dan Szymborski:
I think they're both about rated now.

Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com

Aaron (Baltimore, MD)
The Orioles are going to throw the money at Adam Jones right?.....RIGHT?

Jerry Crasnick (2:00 PM)
Aaron, I have to think they'll try. There aren't many center fielders that young with an all-around skill set like Jones has. But Matt Kemp set the standard with an eight-year, $160 million deal, so Jones isn't going to come cheaply.

Jack Moore, Fangraphs.com

12:42 Comment From Clark Griswold
Adam Jones- Over/Under 32 home runs?

12:42 Jack Moore:
Push? Right around there, over if you put a gun to my head.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Kyle (Dallas):
If the 2012 Milb POY was picked today, who would get your vote?

Jim Callis:
Dylan Bundy. Would probably rank him No. 1 on my overall prospects list as well.

Richard Z (North Brunswick, NJ):
All of the mock drafts I've seen so far have the Orioles taking a college pitcher (Gausman or Zimmer). Is that the general feeling?

Jim Callis:
Yes. Can't see them taking Zunino with Wieters on hand. Correa would be tempting, but they have Machado. I think a college arm will be the top guy on their board at No. 4.

Tyler (Harrodsburg, Ky):
Does Jurickson Profar or Trevor Bauer have any say in that #1 prospect ranking (currently) or do you think Bundy is clearly above everyone else in the minors?

Jim Callis:
Sure they do. As of today, I'd take Bundy. Profar would be No. 2 on my list.

Doug Thorburn, Baseball Prospectus

dianagram (VORGville):
Best "non-pitcher" pitching performance you've ever seen? Chris Davis?

Doug Thorburn:
Best? That's a tough call, but Davis' changeup was filthy, and you rarely see that kind of secondary stuff from a non-pitcher. The most comical position player to take the mound had to be Jose Canseco

Sky (The Roc, NY):
Have you noticed anything qualitatively different with Adam Jones this year? New approach, new mechanics, better at anything?

Doug Thorburn:
The glaring statistical difference is in the HR/FB rate. His other rates are relatively close to career marks, but more of his flies are finding the seats. He is also swinging at fewer pitches overall, which suggest a change of approach. He could be sitting dead-red on certain pitches early in the count and laying off anything that does not fit a certain profile until he gets two strikes, and perhaps he has picked up no a particular trend that pitchers had established against him. This is another area where batters who do their homework can reap an advantage.

As Crash Davis said, "If this guy starts me off with the breaking ball ... I'm taking him downtown"

Ben Badler, Baseball America

@Jaypers413 (IL):
Do you believe the Orioles made the right decision to promote Bundy by one level up instead of two?

Ben Badler:
I don't think it's going to make much of a difference, but I usually do believe in a one level at a time schedule.

Matt (VA):
Dylan Bundy is facing his first real stiff test Saturay vs Salem. How much attention should we pay attention to it?

Ben Badler:
Just enjoy the ride. I can't imagine a guy with his combination of stuff and polish running into much difficulty.

Kyle (Indianapolis):
I know everyone has raved about the polish of Dylan Bundy, but shouldn't that be somewhat expected given the fact that he was a fairly old high schooler. Bundy turns 20 in November in comparison to someone like Mike Trout (I know comparing a pitcher and hitter) who turns 21 in August. They are only 16 months apart, but Trout has experienced 2+ years in the minors. Shouldn't Bundy be more polished or mature than any other high schooler in last year's class.

Ben Badler:
He was old for his grade, but the guy has been about as flawless as you can get and is doing it with arguably the best pure stuff in the minors. He's the best pitching prospect in baseball and he might even be the best prospect overall, although Jurickson Profar has a pretty compelling argument.

Keith Law, ESPN.com

Jon V. (Cleveland, OH)
How do Profar, Machado and Lindor compare? How would you rank the three in each of the 5 major scouting categories?

Klaw (1:30 PM)
Profar and Lindor are no-doubt shortstops, both better runners than Machado. Machado is much bigger and I think he'll produce a lot more offense, but there's a non-negligible probability he moves to third base.

Studebaker (NJ)
Would you have skipped Bundy to AA? Does he need a challenge, or is there no rush?

Klaw (1:38 PM)
I would have started him in AA. Throttling his innings AND starting him at a level for which he was overqualified made - and still makes - no sense.

Scotty D (Rochester, NY)
Given O's pitching coach Rick Peterson's reputation for mishandling young pitchers, what are the chances that Bundy can overcome this coach's tutoring and emerge as a #1 starter by 2014?

Klaw (1:40 PM)
Does he have that reputation? I don't think I've ever heard that.

Shoshana (Boston)
Hey Keith any thoughts on X. Avery? Was always known as a tools guy, but really improved his BB% in Az and has carried it through to this year. SSS obviously but he's been fun to watch in Bal

Klaw (2:03 PM)
At bats in Arizona were pretty poor. I'm inclined to say still an extra outfielder, but there's at least cause for optimism.

Chris (AZ)
Will Gausman be gone by the time the Royals pick? How about Zimmer?

Klaw (2:24 PM)
Baltimore is the only team ahead of KC who might take Gausman.

Jay (Florida)
How do you project Jonathan Schoop? All-star/starter/bench guy?

Klaw (2:26 PM)
Above-average regular. Not a SS, though.

Matt Klaasen, Fangraphs.com

12:20 Comment From Andrew
Can Matusz keep it up?

12:21 Matt Klaassen:
You mean keep up being okay? Sure... Not that excited about him being average, but I guess it's an improvement.

12:43 Comment From Andrew
Are you bullish on Matusz?

12:44 Matt Klaassen:
which animal stands for apathy?

1:09 Comment From inquiringmindswanttoknow
Who wins AL East?

1:09 Matt Klaassen:
Rays. Except that I've jinxed them now...

Adam Jones is Staying

The Baltimore Orioles will officially announce the reported 6 year, $85.5 million deal today at 11:30 and Adam Jones will be patrolling the outfield at Camden Yards until 2018.

Keeping a talent like Adam Jones in the organization is a good thing but the immediate questions you have when your team announces the largest free agent deal in their history is a) will Jones be worth the $14.25 million average salary he will receive and b) how will this affect the team if they choose to sign extensions with other young talent in the coming years.

Regarding the first question, I think Jones is likely to be worth every penny or at least he will be for most of the contract. According to Fangraphs.com's player valuations, Jones was worth $10.5 and $13.0 million during 2010 and 2011 respectively and will be worth far more than that this season. I think even if he regresses a bit, he will at least approach his average annual salary in value.  Fangraphs.com's Dave Cameron seems to think so too which is more than good enough for me.

Regarding the second question, even if Jones' career goes horribly, horribly wrong, this is not the kind of contract that will cripple a franchise. You are buying out one of his arbitration years where he was likely to make $9-10 million in 2013 anyway.  The Orioles have Mark Reynolds' salary ($7.83 mil) and Kevin Gregg's salary ($5.8 mil) come off the books after this season. Brian Roberts' $10 mil salary comes off the books after 2013. Having $14 mil locked up in one player is not going to kill the team, even if Jones pulls a Vernon Wells on us. We have young, relatively cheap talent coming through the system led by Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado and even less heralded players like Xavier Avery have shown that they can contribute at the major league level. This is still a team that can contend without huge escalations in payroll.

Some fans do not believe in Adam Jones. They will not be happy with this deal. But I am a big believer in Jones' power potential and I think this season we are seeing him come into his own as an elite slugger. Multiple 30 homer seasons are in his future and between that and his "hit tool", I am not concerned about his lack of walks or his free-swinging ways. And by the time he gets to the age that I would be worried about it, he will no longer be playing under this contract.

The future looks bright for these Orioles, for the first time in 15 years, and Jones will be leading the way.

Oriole Farm System Sporting Six-Man Rotations

According to MASNSports.com's Steve Melewski, the Orioles are implementing six-man rotations in their farm system from AA down:

The Orioles seem to really like the fact that their starters can get two bullpen or side sessions between starts in a six-man and feel that is a good way right now for some of their young hurlers to get their work in and make improvements to their game.


Two side sessions between starts and not one like pitchers throw in the more traditional five-man rotation, the O's feel, gives those pitchers the best chance to make those improvements.

I have often quoted Branch Rickey on this blog and I will do it again.

"There is quality in quantity."

Six-man rotations give more young pitchers more opportunities to start and, in theory, gives them more time in between starts to work on their weaknesses. The more guys you give opportunities to start, the more likely you are to find diamonds in the rough. Starters are more valuable than relievers, so the more potential starters in the system, the better.

Now, how will this impact a young pitcher's ability to take on a regular MLB workload? I don't know. Will that transisiton from a six-man to a five-man rotation lead to increased risks of injury? I don't know. But aside from that concern, this looks to be nothing but positive for the Oriole farm system.

Adam Jones and Robert Andino Put Birds on Things

I am not sure what any of this means but I was amused watching Adam Jones and Robert Andino vandalize various structures (and people) in NYC.

New Post on MASNSports.com: Andy MacPhail's Fingerprints

A new post on the Orioles Buzz blog on MASNSports.com about how Andy MacPhail's trades have brought players into the Oriole system who are big contributors to this winning team.

Enjoy.

This Week in Chat: 5/21/2012

Where we filter all the week's chats down to their Oriole essence...

Mike Axisa, Fangraphs.com

12:34 Comment From The Oriole Bird
ESPN has the Orioles at a 42% chance of making the playoffs. That seems... optimistic. What are your thoughts on their chances?

12:35 Mike A.: Do not like. I think they have a much better chance of being this year's Indians/Pirates than winning a wildcard spot. But these wins are in the bank though, no taking them away.

1:11 Comment From Guest
Speaking of change of scenery, is Chris Davis for real in Baltimore?

1:11 Mike A.: I think he'll settle in around 110-115 wRC+, which is basically where he is right now. Going to strike out a ton, will mash some taters.

Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com

Matt (Baltimore)
The Orioles are reaching the end of a brutal stretch against NY, Bos, Tex and TB and they and 8-5. You ready to buy into the magic yet, Jerry?

Jerry Crasnick (1:27 PM)
Matt, I talked to a scout today who said, "They're not going away." I just don't see enough starting pitching to buy into the magic. But how many teams in the AL really have great rotations from 1 through 5? Boston, the Yankees, the Angels, the Tigers ... they've all struggled at times with starting pitching. That might help the O's hand around until the All-Star break. I still think they fade in the second half.

Tarek (NYC)
Orioles this year remind me of Cleveland and Pitt from last year. But Oriole fans should just enjoy the ride and hope to be in the race Aug 1st.

Jerry Crasnick (1:32 PM)
Tarek, Yeah, I can buy that.

 Jayson Stark, ESPN.com

Justin (Baltimore)
What is your take on the Orioles? I am really concerned about the number of innings that the bullpen is throwing because it will catch up to you every single time...

Jayson Stark (12:09 PM)
I'm with you, Justin. What really made this start possible was how well the rotation pitched early on. But it was hard to look at the track records of those starters and expect that to continue. And that's the biggest reason it's tough to believe in that team right now. But they've definitely upgraded the stuff and depth of that bullpen. And they'll need all of it to hang in there in the AL East.

Keith Law, ESPN.com 

Camden (Newark, DE)
What would carry more weight to you, a 19 year old SS holding their own in AA or dominating at a lower level? (Think Manny Machado). Thanks.

Klaw (2:08 PM)
The former, actually. Someone asked me on Twitter why Machado was so hyped since his stats aren't any good. Age matters.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Starting to buy the Orioles yet?

Klaw (2:15 PM) No, of course not.

Dave (Dallas)
Profar or Machado? Does it depend if Machado can stay at SS

Klaw (2:31 PM) I
f you think Machado is a SS, he's the call. I happen to think he is. But you wouldn't regret choosing Profar.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
If the O's had pick #1 in this draft, who would they select?

Klaw (2:34 PM)
My guess would be Buxton. They are absolutely taking BPA. He's on top of most scouts' boards.

Robert (Owasso)
Do you see Dylan Bundy making 2013 rotation for Baltimore. Ive seen him pitch several times, is an incredible kid with superstar potential. Where do you see Brian Ragira in 2013 draft?

Klaw (2:37 PM)
I think he should make their rotation next year, but I don't know if they'll allow it. Ragira doesn't profile for me - plays 1b now, might be fine in LF/RF, but doesn't have the power for any of those positions.

Bob (Corbin,Ky.)
First of all,really appreciate the hard work you put in so we can all enjoy what you do.Do you think that the reason why the Orioles are being slow with Bundy is because of what has happened to their other prized pitching prospects(Matusz,Tillman,etc.)Or are they just being foolish?

Klaw (3:04 PM)
That wouldn't surprise me. But Matusz didn't flop because he was rushed - he flopped because his velocity disappeared, perhaps because he got hurt.

Marcus (DC)
Keith, Can you explain to me why Yu Darvis is getting so much publicity/hype and Wei-Yin Chen is getting none? If you compare the numbers, Chen is actually has a better ERA and WHP, while walking less batters and is 4-0. The only thing Darvis is doing better is strikeouts.

Klaw (3:07 PM)
Well, strikeouts are pretty important. But Chen has been very good, absolutely.

Mike Newman, Fangraphs.com 

5:30 Comment From TMT
who is your most surprising prospect so far this season 5:31

Mike Newman:
Gabriel Lino. I had never even heard of him before he crushed the baseball in Asheville. I was very impressed by that Delmarva team overall.

Is It 2005 All Over Again?

Tuesday, Rany Jazayerli wrote an article for Grantland wondering if the Orioles are finally a winner in 2012. He has his doubts and begins by listing the multiple "teases" the O's have given their fans in the 21st century. Most of those comparisions are not really teases, at least not like the ride the Birds have taken us on this year. Most of examples Jazayerli points out arejust hot Aprils or, even worse, a hot 12 game stretch to start the season. Others are years where the team has hovered around .500 until the end of June and then tanked during the dog days of summer. This season is a different story. The Orioles are 11 games over .500 on May 18th. There is only one season in recent memory that compares to this one: 2005.

In fact some of the similarities are kind of scary. Let's compare and contrast.

The Same Record

On the morning of May 18th, 2005, the Orioles had just beaten the Royals in Kansas City and were in first place with a record of 25-13.

On the morning of May 18th, 2012, the Orioles have just beaten the Royals in Kansas City and are in first place with a record of 25-14.

But the similarities kind of end there. That 2005 club came out of the gates red-hot and went 16-7 in April. But by May 18th, they were just 9-6 for the month of May and would finish May with a 15-13 record. It would be their last winning month until May of 2007.

This year's version of the Orange & Black is a slightly different story as they went 14-9 in April (.609) and have imprived on that in May winning 11 of 16 (.687).

Their Best Pitcher is a Lefty Named Chen

The morning of May 18th, 2005, a 28-year old lefty named Chen led the team with 4 wins, a 3.38 ERA with 30 strikeouts and 11 walks in 45 innings pitched.

On the morning of May 18th, 2012, a 26-year old lefty named Chen is tied for the lead in team wins with 4, has a 2.45 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 14 walks in 44 innings pitched.

Wei-Yin is pitching a bit better than Bruce up to this point but Bruce was indeed the best hurler for that 2005 club and Wei-Yin could well turn out to be the best starter on this one. Of course, Bruce did not have a Jason Hammel (2.68 ERA) on his team to help out...he had Erik Bedard (2.35 ERA on May 18th, 2005). But Bedard got hurt after his start on May 21st which coincided with Baltimore's June slide and by the time he started again in mid-July, it was far too late. Like that team, this team could also be undone by an injury to the wrong guy. They'll need to stay reasonably healthy to keep this up.

They Have New Closers

Coming into 2005, 29-year old B.J. Ryan had little experience closing games with only 2 single inning saves in September 2004. In Spring Training, he won the job away from incumbent Jorge Julio and became one of baseball's top closers. By May 18th, he had racked up a (near) league-leading 11 saves with a dominant 1.64 ERA.*

Coming into 2012, 29-year old Jim Johnson had little experience closing games with only 7 single inning saves in September 2011. In Spring Training, he won the job away from incumbent Kevin Gregg and became one of baseball's top closers. By May 18th, he has a league-leading 14 saves with a dominant 0.48 ERA.

Ryan's season may have not helped the Orioles win but it did make him a very rich man by season's end when he jumped to the Blue Jays for a $47 million contract. The Orioles will have no fear of losing Johnson so quickly as he still has one more season until he can become a free agent. If there is one major failing of the Andy MacPhail regime, it was spending $22 mil on free agent closers when they had one under their nose the whole time.

*Francisco Cordero had 12 saves. Sue me.

They Have a Breakout Star

That day in May, Brian Roberts had broken out in a big way, hitting .376/.453/.669 with a team leading 11 home runs. While he had shown progress in previous seasons, Roberts had never even had an .800 OPS before 2005 when he finished with an OPS of .903 (139 OPS+).

This day in May, Adam Jones had broken out in a big way, hitting .296/.345/.604 with a team leading 13 home runs. While he had shown progress in previous seasons, Jones has never even had an .800 OPS season before 2012 and he currently has an OPS of .949 (157 OPS+).

Miguel Tejada is in the Organization

OK, now I'm stretching. In 2005, Tejada was one of the top offensive shortstops in baseball. Now, he is down in extended spring training trying to get in baseball shape so he can go play in Norfolk.

There are other similarities too. Our first baseman was playing in Texas last season (in 2005, it was Rafael Palmiero). We are relying heavily on some young pitching to lend a hand. (In 2005, it was Bedard and Daniel Cabrera, now it's Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz). And like that 2005 team, this year's team is not deep enough to absorb key injuries and keep winning.

But that 2005 team featured one of the worst outfields in recent memory (Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos and Sammy Sosa), did not have a second emerging star like this team has in Matt Wieters and had far less depth in the bullpen.

Can this team hang all season with the like of the Rays and Yankees? I still think that is unlikely. But you really have to like their chances to win. And if they don't, this team will go down as the biggest tease during this seemingly interminable era of loss.

New Post on MASNSPorts.com: Mark Reynolds Could Be Worse

A new post up at MASNSports.com in which I mount a tepid defense of Mark Reynolds' performance thus far.

If you don't see posts going up here, I will have a post up at the Orioles Buzz blog over at MASNSports.com every Tuesday morning.

Miguel Tejada Coming Back to Baltimore, I Try to Figure Out Why

Reports started late yesterday afternoon, first through a Twitter account that is billed as the official twitter feed of Miguel Tejada and then through various media outlets (although I believe Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com was the first) that Tejada was reporting to Sarasota for a workout and a physical with Baltimore.

However, Tejada started talking. First, he went on Z101 in the Dominican Republic to talk about the signing, then ne spoke to the AP and ESPN Desportes. I ran a few of his quotes through Google Translate and here's a  compilation:

"It's a Major League contract, on Monday the team will give the details of the contract...I'm super happy for this opportunity to return to the majors, that's what matters most to me...I report Monday to Sarasota, then I will have a physical and after a few days I will report to the big team."


So from Tejada's mouth, we learn that, pending a physical, the Orioles have offered him a major league deal (Tejada has hinted that he believes it will be for more than the MLB minimum) and that he expects to be in Baltimore a few days after he passes the physical.

So where does he fit on this roster?

I suppose the easy answer is that C Luis Exposito is sent back down to Norfolk to make room for Tejada but that would give the Orioles 8 infielders which is an odd configuration. Wilson Betemit could slide over as a fourth outfielder but to say he's played the outfield sparingly during his career would be a huge understatement. Ryan Flaherty was playing out in left yesterday so maybe the Orioles have no set infielder/outfielder roles anymore? I mean, I guess if Chris Davis can pitch, all barriers are down.

One would assume this signing is in response to Mark Reynolds' abysmal fielding. But Tejada is going to have to field at Gold Glove levels to make up for the difference in offense. Miguel Tejada is the definition of washed up. No projection system has him slugging even .400 and on the most optimistic have his OPS over .700. His fielding at third, if you recall 2010, was not so great. If fact, Reynolds' UZR numbers are waaaaayyyyy better than last season, at least so far. He has a -10.8 UZR/150, right in line with his career averages (his errors have been really bad, his range has been respectable). Tejada's UZR/150 at third base for 2010? -9.9.

It's a puzzling move all around. If you were going to pick up someone to play third, why not grab Brandon Inge who was waived a couple of weeks back?

Hopefully, I'm wrong. But this signing looks like a colossal waste of time and resources.

New Post at MASNSports.com: Nolan Reimold and Other Delights

Hello all.

I am writing a weekly post for MASNSports.com again this year. This post is about Nolan Reimold (shocker!) and the benefits of giving him playing time. Enjoy!

5 Things I'm Watching During Spring Training

The wins and losses are meaningless, so are most of the stats. But there is plenty to watch every year in Spring Training. A little late with this but since we are a week into the exhibition season, I wanted to outline the 5 things I am watching for while the O's tune up in Sarasota.

1. Ryan Flaherty and Matt Antonelli

The former was the Orioles' Rule 5 pick, the latter a minor league free agent signed to a major league deal. With Brian Roberts doubtful ever to play for Baltimore again, it is possible that both of these infielders make the team. but they are both something of unknown commodities and I am curious to see what they can do and how they can do it. Both are low cost gambles and it would be nice if they could pay off.

2. The Asian Imports

Speaking of unknown commodities, one never knows exactly how NPB players will fare when faced with MLB competition. Pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada are no different. So even though spring training stats have to be taken with a grain of salt,  it will be fascinating to see how they fare against MLB hitters and, for Wada anyway, whether he will pitch in the rotation or out of the bullpen.

3. The Young Guns

Unlike previous years, I am not looking to see progress in Baltimore's crop of young starters, I am just looking for signs of life. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton and Brad Bergesen are all coming of seasons of inconsistency, injury, general ineffectiveness or some combination of the three. Who will break camp with the big club? Who will be able to contribute beyond 2012? Are any of these guys nuggets still?

4. Dirty Jim...Finally the Closer?

Jim Johnson has watched the team spend big money on "proven closers" before the past two seasons and probably wondered why he wasn't given a shot instead. Since 2008, Johnson has posted an ERA+ of  144, by far the best among any Oriole reliever who pitched in more than 100 games. (Koji Uehara had similar effectiveness but in fewer games.) It will be interesting to see how Johnson is used as Spring Training moves forward. I would imagine Buck will want him to get used to pitching in the 9th.

5. Jai Miller

Since I started writing this blog, every spring there was a question about who would be the backup catcher.Not this year. Barring injury, Taylor Teagarden will be backing up Matt Wieters.

The outfield would seem to be settled but RF Nick Markakis is coming back from injury and LF Nolan Reimold was struck in the face with a pitch this yesterday. That could give some playing time early in the season to 27-year old Jai Miller.

Miller OPS'ed .976 for Sacramento in the (admittedly) offense friendly Pacific Coast League but that developing bat and his ability to play anywhere in the outfield (he has primarily played centerfield during his minor league career, including last season) make him an intriguing option as a fourth outfielder.  Endy Chavez is likely to fill that role but I'd have more fun watching Miller patrol Camden Yards this summer.

If You Can't Hit, Jorge Arangure Doesn't Care About Your Injuries

Oriole left fielder Nolan Reimold took a fastball to the face in the first inning of today's exhibition game against the Tampa Bay Rays and from all accounts, it was pretty nasty.

Three innings later, we learned that IF Ryan Flaherty, the club's Rule 5 pick, took a pitch in the shoulder via Roch Kubatko on Twitter. Jorge Arangure replied to that tweet:

Forget, for a moment, that his comment is kind of a cheap dig at the Orioles and, for their fans, kind of rubbing their faces in 14 straight seasons of losing. I'm making that leap butI suppose it's not fair to expect Mr. Arangure to understand the psyche of the modern Oriole fan. (But considering he spent years covering the O's for the Washington Post, maybe it is a fair expectation.)

But so close on the heels of a scary injury to Reimold, one that had him laid out for several minutes and taken directly to a local hospital, this comment seemed a bit callous, to say the least.

I retweeted his statement with comment which started a small back and forth:

That is indeed the cold, hard reality. But the timing of that comment really was poor. As you will see later, that timing may have been related to a misunderstanding but while Mr. Arangure may not "enjoy" seeing players get hurt, it doesn't seem to concern him much. At least if they're not any good.

And this is true. It was a reply to the Flaherty tweet from Roch Kubatko.

But he never said that he did not know that Reimold had been injured. Roch referenced it ever so obliquely with "And so it continues." in that initial tweet. I mentioned a player getting hit in the face, not the shoulder, and it did not seem to give him pause. And assuming that an injury is serious enough to keep a bad player out of a lineup, thus making his production easier to replace than a good one, it would seem the assumption is that the injury was bad enough to keep the player out of a lineup. As he says, a guy who gets hit in the shoulder is not a catastrophic event. Getting hit in the face with a fast ball typically is.

So I will take him at his word that he was referring the the Flaherty injury and that he was ignorant of the more serious Reimold injury, even if that seems a bit suspect.

But doesn't Ryan Flaherty deserve a bit of human sympathy anyway? If you prick him, does he not bleed? By all accounts, Flaherty was in visible pain when he was struck. If he was to miss any time, should it be trivialized just because he is much more likely to hit .220 than .320?  You would think that Mr. Arangure has spent enough time around ball players to be a little less flippant about injuries. But Ryan Flaherty going on the DL is not nearly the story that an Alex Rodriguez injury would be. And to many baseball writers, if it's not a big story, it's not worth being concerned about. On any level.

Spring Training: Ed Smith Stadium Guide

I have finally come to terms with the fact that I will not be attending Oriole Spring Training 2012 and I have not been since the inaugural training in Sarasota in 2010. (sigh....)

Since I cannot accurately update my Unofficial Guide to Oriole Spring Training, I instead point you to Spring Training Connection's review of Ed Smith Stadium. It is very thorough and a great resource if you are still heading down to Sarasota in March. Check it out!

As a supplement, here's the link to last year's Unofficial Baltimore Orioles Spring Training Visitor's Guide. Some of the information will still be relevant.

Orioles and Korea: Troubling Signs for Baltimore's International Scouting Efforts

I wanted to comment on this article in Baseball America last week that breaks down the Orioles' debacle involving the attempted signing of Korean high school pitcher Seong-Min Kim.

I have been pretty approving of all the changes the Orioles have been making under Dan Duquette and thought that shaking up the organization and focusing on international markets are fine ideas. The organization needed that and my opinion was that any change was better than the status quo.

However, the details regarding the signing of Kim make one wonder about the judgement of the people heading up some of these efforts. For one, the pitcher was not even considered a great prospect to begin with.

More notable than the breach of protocol, however, was the amount the Orioles agreed to pay a player regarded by most teams that scouted him as a marginal prospect. (Dan) Duquette declined to comment on Kim's scouting report now that he's no longer under contract...


Many believed the Orioles were the only team interested in Kim. Several teams turned him in as a non-prospect.


"Where was the competition," asked one international scouting director, "to drive the bonus to $575,000 when they could have signed him for $5,000?"

That's a good question. Why are the Orioles so anxious to sign a fringy prospect that they jump the gun and break protocol? There is one man who can answer that.

After hiring Duquette in November, the Orioles announced the hiring of Ray Poitevint as their new executive director of international baseball in a Jan. 9 press release. Poitevint has extensive experience signing players in Asia, including during Duquette's tenure as Red Sox GM from 1994-2001. The two have worked together since Duquette began his career in baseball with the Brewers in 1981. Poitevint said in an interview that Duquette started out as his assistant, and the two were together in Milwaukee until Duquette left to join the Expos after the 1987 season.


Poitevint said he scouted Kim for two and a half years, and that he and an associate he has known for 30 years—whom he declined to name—evaluated Kim for the Orioles. When asked who else was interested in signing Kim, Poitevint said, "Everybody," adding, "This is the type of guy who draws scouts...."


"We'll see what happens," Poitevint said. "If we have an opportunity to introduce ourselves again to him, we'll try to sign him, just like anyone else. We know there's going to be a lot of competition."

So the first issue is that Mr. Poitevant and his scouts are far, far off the reservation when it comes to the general scouting consensus on this kid. That is troublesome, as is the amount of money they threw Kim's way, but sometimes an individual scout can see things others may miss.

But an even bigger issue is that Mr. Poitevant and his "extensive experience" in Asia managed commit a huge gaffe, nullifying a contract and losing access to Korean baseball, less than 3 months into his job.

Questionable talent assessment and procederal ignorance? This is not the kind of change this team needs.

2012 Oriole Win Predictions

It's that time again. Today, I will try to predict the Oriole win total using estimated playing time, projections and the WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore.

I used Sky Kalkman's updated WAR Spreadsheet for the calculations and based on Matt Swartz's article on testing projections systems at Fangraphs.com, I used a combination of ZiPS and Oliver projections for the hitters and Steamer FIP projections for the pitchers.

I am assuming a 12 man pitching staff and based on that assumption, here are the 13 position players I have breaking camp:

C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
2B Robert Andino
SS JJ Hardy
3B Mark Reynolds
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Nolan Reimold
IF/DH Wilson Betemit
OF Endy Chavez
IF Matt Antonelli
IF Ryan Flaherty
C Taylor Teagarden

I do not expect Brian Roberts to break camp with the rest of the team and I don't really expect him to contribute much to the Orioles going forward. That will allow the new corp of infielders to head north with the club. Nick Markakis may still start the season on the DL allowing Jai Miller a bit of playing time early.

The pitching situation is cloudier due to the current injuries, a few pitchers coming back from injury and sorting out all the options (or lack thereof) of relievers in camp. I did the best I could with the composition of the pitching staff and you could certainly trade out a Darren O'Day for a Kevin Gregg and I wouldn't have an argument with that. But the bullpen roster, outside of Jim Johnson and Matt Lindstrom, is anybody's guess and quite frankly there probably won't be a hige difference in performance. Troy Patton, for instance, is probably more wishful thinking on my part although I think he could be a very good bullpen arm. He is just as likely to be waived or traded as he is to make the team. Also wishful thinking is the departure via trade or waivers of Kevin Gregg. But I digress.

So, here it is:





A few thoughts and explanations...

- Even without the additions of big name (but old and ineffective) veterans this offseason, the projections only have the team winning 5 fewer games. (Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee didn't even sniff their 2011 projections...)

- Oliver loves Chris Davis. It projected a .803 OPS for 2012. ZiPS hates Chris Davis. It projects a .739 OPS. It was the biggest discrepency on the team. I split the difference. Anything approching the Oliver projection for Davis would be really nice for the offense.

- I have probably overestimated the total team defense. I may have overestimated the impact of plus defenders and not taken enough away from some suspect defenders. Outside of Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy, there are no defensive standouts on the team (not even Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, Gold Gloves notwithstanding). Most of the team ranges from solid to awful. That said, I think Wieters' combination of stellar defense and a solid to great bat will make him the most valuable member of the team.

- You can see the impact that losing an above average starter that can throw 200 innings can have on a rotation. All those innings are going to have to be cobbled together around Jason Hammel, the only member of the starting staff that has thrown more than 170 innings in an MLB season.

- The NPB imports of Wei Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada do not have Steamer projections. Wada's is a ZiPS projection and Chen is just a wild guess. With Wada's injury and the general difficulty of projecting NPB pitchers, these innings and ERA projections are probably the best possible scenarios.

- Speaking of best possible scenarios, remember when we were all excited about the young Oriole arms? Now, according to projecitons, getting 130 innings of 4.69 ERA from Jake Arrieta seems to be the best performance we can expect from this group. (And given he is coming back from elbow surgery, that may be in question too.) With Zach Britton's shoulder soreness, Brian Matusz's big step back in 2011 and Chris Tillman's general ineffectiveness, it's hard to count on any of them to do big things in 2012.

- Mark Reynolds should, once again, be the best offensive player on the team. Take that how you will.

All of this breaks down to about 74 wins and, unlike the last couple of years, I don't see much chance of the Orioles exceeding that win total. In fact, I think this may be the best case scenario. OK, we could have a few position players take big steps forward (Jones, Wieters, Davis and Reimold) and a couple of the young pitchers could develop into reliable starters (Matusz, Britton and Arrieta) and the NPB imports could be better than advertised and the Orioles field a decent lineup and a solid pitching staff. But if you have been watching the O's over the past few seasons, you know how unlikely all these players hitting their ceilings in the same season seems.

Given that my predicitons in previous years have been a bit too optimistic, I think Baltimore will struggle to reach 70 wins in 2012. If they fail, it will be the 6th straight season that they have failed to reach the 70 win mark. I'll try to look for silver linings to this dark cloud in the coming weeks.

This Week in Chat: 2/13/2011

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

9:27 Comment From SeanP
Dan Duquette said that the Orioles couldn't get any team to trade prospects for Jeremy Guthrie. Does that change the outlook of the Guthrie-for-Hammel/Lindstrom trade?

9:27 Chris Cwik:
Not really. At least get something useful for Guthrie. The O's didn't even cut salary in the deal. What was the point?

9:28 Paul Swydan:
No. He should have waited until the deadline. The stories about the O's and Guthrie clashing over arb negotiations brought back memories of the Duke and John Valentin bickering in the media about what doctor should perform his knee surgery.

9:28 Zach Sanders:
I never thought they'd get a prospect, so no, not for me. I liked it for the Os, actually. Hammel will never meet his FIP numbers or stuff, but Lindstrom is more than useful.

9:40 Comment From Fattinton_Bear
Does Jeremy Guthrie going to COL make him have fantasy value since he'll be in an easier division and an easier league?

9:40 Chris Cwik:
I'm not a big Guthrie fan. So, no.

9:40 Zach Sanders:
I have him getting a small boost, but it's pretty much the same.

9:41 Paul Swydan:
I don't think so. I don't think any Rockies starting pitcher is really worth drafting this year.


Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

12:19 Comment From Charles
Convince me that Dan Duquette isn't the absolute worst general manager in the game right now

12:19
Ned Colletti.


Dave Schoenfield, ESPN

Austin (A's fan in NYC)
Dave,Based on everything from current on-field talent to front-office aptitude, ownership and ballpark situations, division, and payroll considerations, how would you rank the teams facing the longest roads to serious contention? I'm thinking 1 Baltimore (farthest from contention); 2 Houston; 3 Mets; 4 Pittsburgh; fifth?Mariners? I?m hoping not my A?s, but they're probably part of the conversation.

David Schoenfield (1:05 PM)
I think everyone agrees the Astros have the least talent in the organization (from majors down to the minors). But they do at least play in the NL Central, so they may be able to rebuild in 3-4 years. Considering their division, I agree with you: Orioles are probably No. 1 on this list, even though they have some talent in the bigs and on the farm. I'd probably rank the A's "ahead" of the Mariners. Ballpark situation just too big of a negative.

Confused (Baltimore)
Dan Duquette, misunderstood genius or delusional? He seems to be tilting at windmills to me. What am I missing?

David Schoenfield (1:24 PM)
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what the Guthrie trade was all about. I know he saves money with Hammel and he gets two years of team control with Hammel and Lindstrom, but seems Guthrie could have been flipped for a good prospect with SIX years of team control. Not a terrible trade, but not one that really accomplishes anything for Baltimore.

John (Baltimore)
Does Matusz turn it around this year or is he a bust?

David Schoenfield (1:34 PM)
No idea. I know he's said his velocity was down after returning, but I still wonder if he was pitching through an injury. Or maybe he just went through what Halladay did as a young pitcher. Halladay had to go all the way back to Class A to rediscover his mechanics.

Jason (St Louis)
How about Adam Jones for Shelby Miller, Zack Cox and Jon Jay? Who says no?

David Schoenfield (1:43 PM)
I think the Cardinals do. I'm on record as thinking Jones is overrated. Jay is OK and Miller's potential isn't worth the upgrade from Jay to Jones.


Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Paul (DC):
Who are the likely top contenders to bid for Yoennis Cespedes' services?

Kevin Goldstein:
Cubs, Marlins, Orioles, White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, mystery team.

john m (ct):
Any chance Brian Matusz regains his stuff?

Kevin Goldstein:
There is obviously SOME chance, it's counting on it that is the risky part.


Keith Law, ESPN

bubble boy (the bubble)
If Bundy were 6'4 would he be top 5? I know, if if were a skiff we'd all be sailing...

Klaw (1:20 PM)
Best line I heard on him was from a senior FO guy who said something close to this: "If Dylan Bundy was 6'4" he'd be in an Opening Day rotation."

Joe (Pittsburgh)
In hindsight, should the pirates regret choosing Taillon over Machado

Klaw (1:21 PM)
That seems awfully strong, and awfully quick. Even if they get the lesser player, Taillon's not a stiff.

Snakes (Philly)
The Orioles Guthrie to Colorado trade is... strange at best. What were they thinking in your opinion? Oh- and they are likely to sign Manny Ramirez too!!

Klaw (1:46 PM)
At best, it's a lateral move. And it's probably a small step back.

Kevin (MD)
O's fan here. Talk me off my ledge and give me hope for the future Keith! Anything to look forward to other than Bundy or Machado?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
Schoop, Bridwell, Delmonico. It's not Houston, where there's just very little talent. But you've got the worst owner in the game, and a GM operating out of a playbook so old it's written on papyrus.

Jeb (Chicago)
Thoughts regarding KBA banning Baltimore because of Kim Seong-min? Did Baltimore really mess up or is this not a big deal?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
They messed up. MLB values its relationships with KBO and NPB, so I imagine they're really unhappy. All this for a non-prospect, too.

Obscure Oriole Transaction Spotlight: Chris Tremblay

Who says the Orioles haven't made any moves?

Name: Chris Tremblay
Position: 2B
Throws: R
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
Age: 25

Tremblay was born in Montreal and was drafted out of Kent State by he Padres in the 19th round of the 2009 draft.

Up to this point he has been a light-hitting utility type (catcher, centerfielder and pitcher were the only spots he did not play in the Padre system) and with his .591 minor league career OPS and with only 78 games played at high-A by age 24, his glove had better be really good.

What else do we know about Mr. Temblay? He has a really gnarly tattoo on his shoulder and he writes a blog, not about baseball, but about literature and writing. He does have an entry about getting released by the Padres but generally, this is not a baseball blog.

Look for him in Frederick this season.

Orioles Trade Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies

The Orioles have traded workhorse starter Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies for SP Jason Hammel and RP Matt Lindstrom.

While I am sad to see Guthrie go, he was likely gone at the end of the season anyway and would have commanded somewhere around $9 million in salary through arbitration this season. Like the Luke Scott situation, I'm not sure why Guthrie was still on the team and believe he probably could have brought back more value at the trading deadlines in 2011 or 2010. But unlike Scott, the O's were able to get something of value back for Guthrie. (My Guthrie love letter will come later...)

Jason Hammel, like Guthrie, has always been a bit underrated. Rightly or wrongly, I have always thought they were similar pitchers. Some career numbers for both:

          AGE    G    K/9   BB/9   K/BB   HR/9    GB%   ERA    FIP  xFIP   WHIP
Guthrie    33  177   5.52   2.68   2.06   1.22   40.6  4.19   4.61  4.68   1.29
Hammell    29  169   6.25   3.11   2.01   1.06   45.1  4.99   4.38  4.27   1.47

Hammel walks a few more batters but also strikes out a few more, keeps the ball in the park slightly better and gets a fair bit more ground balls than Guthrie. His peripherals are better. But he's been the anti-Guthrie in terms of outperforming his peripherals; while Guthrie tends to outperform his FIP and xFIP, Hammel has tended to underperform his peripherals. But they both have fastballs that sit in the 92-93 range and fill out hte repertoire with sliders and changeups.

Hammel had a down year in 2011 and I guess the Orioles are looking for a rebound season from him. If he does, he is likely to replace Guthrie's production in 2012 and with a an extra year of arbitration left, Hammel could be flipped to another club or extended for a reasonable price. He is four years younger than Guthrie and is similar enough to him that it makes sense to take a flier on Hammel.

Matt Lindstrom is...an averagish reliever? He gets a lot of ground balls but has had mixed success over his career. He'll make $3.6 million in 2012 which seems like a lot for a reliever of his caliber. But he's cheaper than Kevin Gregg and can't be any worse.

As much as I liked Guthrie as a fan, the Orioles got decent value in return for a league average 33-year old fly ball pitcher. They got a younger pitcher with an extra year of control. It's fine. The only thing the O's did wrong here was to hold on to Guthrie a season too long if they wanted to get prospects in a deal.

Oriole Rotation Projected to Improve

It is no secret to the long-suffering Oriole fan that a major factor in all the losing of late has been due to the team trotting out the most wretched pitching staff in the league for most of the past 14 seasons. Indeed, the team's collected hurlers have been unable to post a team ERA that ranked above 13th in the 14 team American League over the past four seasons. Could that be changing in 2012?

In 2011, the team's starters threw a total of 881 innings (dead last among AL teams) with an ERA of 5.39 (also dead last in the AL). SInce most decent starting staffs rack up something in the neighborhood of 1000 innings, I used ZiPS projections to assemble roughly that number of innings amongst the best of the projected starters for Baltimore in 2012. Here they are:

          IP  ERA
Wada     139 4.01
Guthrie  178 4.30
Britton  156 4.85
Chen     125 4.50
Hunter   136 4.96
Arrieta  132 5.13
Matusz   136 5.35
    
Total   1002 4.71

* Wei-Yin Chen does not have an official ZiPS projection. Given that he is considered a better prospect than Tsuyoshi Wada, the low innings count and the 4.50 ERA seems fair. Of course, this guy was supposed to be a better MLB porspect than Koji Uehara when they cam stateside in 2009.

All in all, the projections put the starter's ERA at just over 2/3 a run better than 2011 and projects more innings eaten by the starters than last year too. While I doubt the starters will throw 1000 innings, something around 950 will be a great improvement and will take some pressure off the bullpen. Any bullpen who has to fill the kind of gaps that the Orioles pen has over the past few years is bound to be exposed, no matter how good it is.

There is some chance for improvement here. Brian Matusz could come back from his injury plagued 2011 a much better pitcher. Ditto for Jake Arrieta. Sophomore Zach Britton could take a step forward and 23-year old Chris Tillman could regain his prospect status and contribute in the second half. But as the projections stand, a 4.71 starter ERA would have been no better than 13th in the AL in 2011. Even with significant improvement, this is still a bottom of the league rotation.

But a rotation with Jeremy Guthrie, Britton, Wada and Chen at it's core with Matusz, Arrieta and Tommy Hunter filling in the gaps is still one if the more interesting rotations the Orioles have assembled in recent years, even if it won't be an overly effective one.

The Wisdom of Signing Wilson

With the signing of Wilson Betemit, the Orioles seem to have found their DH for 2012.

That is a statement made with tongue firmly in cheek but it's not as crazy as you might think. To beat the rotting horse's corpse that I love so well:

                       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   G   WAR   
2009-2011 Betemit     .284  .354  .467  .821  201  1.5
2009-2011 Guerrero    .295  .332  .458  .790  397  2.5

The signing of Vladimir Guerrero at this time last year was hailed as filling a gaping hole at DH for the O's. Betemit will surely do no worse.

Especially if he's deployed in the correct way. If Betemit is the DH against righties (.817 career OPS against RHP) and, say, Mark Reynolds gets the bulk of DH starts against lefties (.882 career OPS against LHP) with scattered DH at bats for Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and others, that doesn't seem to be a bad solution to improve production from that spot in the lineup.

Betemit is billed as a utility infielder but honestly, he's never been a great fielder. Imagine a tick or two below Ty Wigginton and you'll get an idea of what he will look like in the field this season. While he will get some starts int he field, the Orioles will be wise to have him serve primarily as a DH and a pinch hitter. (And as unorthodox as that may sound, I believe that is exactly the plan for him.)

Nor does Betemit create any kind of roster crowding or crisis. The projected members of the roster, position players only, assuming a 12-man pitching staff.

C
Matt Wieters 
Taylor Teagarden

IF
Chris Davis
J.J. Hardy
Mark Reynolds
Robert Andino
Matt Antonelli
Ryan Flaherty
Wilson Betemit

OF
Endy Chavez
Nolan Reimold
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis

This assumes that Flaherty makes the roster at all (no guarantee of that) and I am certainly not counting on Brian Roberts playing for Baltimore in 2012. If Flaherty does not remain with the MLB club, there would be room for Ryan Adams or a resurrected Roberts. This move may signal that a trade is in the works but I hardly think it's necessary based on the current construction of the club.

And considering the price Betemit signed for ($3.25M for 2 years), the 30-year old is virtually a slam dunk to be a good return on investment. (OK, the 2-year commitment was a little weird...) But this signing, if he is to be used the way I expect, makes way more sense and gives the team way more flexibility than the Guerrero and Derrek Lee signings of last offseason.