How Baltimore Can Win The East '09: The Case Against The Yankees

Oh, this will be fun...

1. A-Rod!

A-Rod's hip surgery made this post so much easier to write...

Alex Rodriguez is out until at least the end of May (edit: maybe not) and is the best bat offensive player on the team. Even if A-Rod guts it out, you can't mask a hip injury. He will probably be a diminished player when he returns. This hurts the Yanks more than they would want to admit; only Mark Teixeira could reasonable hit at A-Rod levels during any given season. And as I've said before (and I saw him up close here in Atlanta for a season), Teixeira is not the kind of player who can carry a team alone.

Right now, the Yankees third baseman would be Cody Ransom, a 33 year old journeyman with 183 career major league at bats and a .242 career minor league batting average. Just a bit of a dropoff there.

2. Posada!

Jorge Posada can't catch anymore. Who are they kidding? He's 37 with a bum elbow. He can't throw runners out anymore. If I were Dave Trembley, I'd be stealing second with every player faster than Gregg Zaun during that opening series.

He's a hitter is steep decline. He'll be lucky to hit at league average. And behind him is Jose Molina. Molina has a decent glove but not a great arm and no bat at all.

Posada will will contribute to...

3. The Bad Defense Up The Middle

Posada has been covered. Robinson Cano is a butcher at second. Derek Jeter lives off a reputation but hasn't been a great defensive shortstop in over 10 years. I don't care if you dive for the ball or not Derek; the net result is usually a single to left anyway. Melky Cabrera's defensive prowess is grossly overstated; he is a below-average centerfielder by any reputable defensive metric. Brett Gardner is a great fielder but the fans will never allow his bat (a .250-ish batting average by CHONE and MARCEL projections) is the lineup. These are not patient people. They'll boo him off the field.

In addition, Xavier Nady is just average in right and A-Rod is just average at third. Only Johnny Damon in left and Teixeira at first will be plus defenders.

4. The Elderly...

...swinging the bats. Robinson Cano will be 26 (we think), Melky Cabrera will be 24 (Brett Gardner is 25) and Mark Teixeira will be 29 in 2009. Those are the only position players who will be under 30.

Xavier Nady is 30, A-Rod is 33 (when he actually plays), Jose Molina is 34, Jeter, Damon and Matsui will be 35 and Jorge Posada will be 37.

Excessive age is not good for a club. Player's begin to decline or physically breakdown (see A-Rod now or Posada last season). Don't expect this offense to be some juggernaut. It'll be good but probably not great.

5. Robinson Cano...Hurt or Declining?

Cano's production has always been closely tied to his average (he has never walked more than 39 times in a season) and last year that production fell off a cliff.

What is interesting about this is what pitchers were doing to him in 2009. Were they throwing him a bunch of breaking stuff, getting him to chase outside of the zone? No, they were throwing him more fastballs and cutters than ever before.

The percentage of fastballs thrown to Cano went up from 55.9% to 63.2%. Cutters increased from 2.8% to 3.7% (and the amount of cutters thrown to Cano has increased every season...). They treated him like a rookie. He seems unable to catch up to any pitch approaching 90 mph.

Something's wrong there and and it can't be good...

Conclusion

The Yankees have some glaring problems (I didn't even get into the rotation that, despite all the money spent, could be very average after C.C. Sabathia) , mostly revolving around age and injury of their position players. But the Yankee's deep pockets and willingness to trade their prospects at the drop of a hat allow them to address these issues mid-season. Still, if a few bad breaks happen during the same season, the Yanks may have to blow up the team, save for the recently signed core, and start reloading for 2010 instead.

Cal Ripken on MLB.com

In minutes, MLB Network will be airing an interview with Cal Ripken, Jr. on MLB Tonight.

They usually replay the show later in the evening and many times the following morning in case you miss it...more on this later.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '09: The Case Against The Blue Jays

Hope springs eternal during this part of the season. To combat some of the terminal moping in Baltimore after 11 straight losing seasons, I have endeavored to inject a little bravado, a little hope for Oriole fans the past two seasons and I see no reason to stop now. Yes, the Baltimore Orioles can win the AL East...put much would have to go right for Baltimore and much would have to go wrong with the other clubs. If you put any of these clubs in the NL West (even the Orioles) and they would have a very good chance to compete, so I'm not running any of them down. But the Orioles are a bit better than people give them credit for. Especially when compared to the Toronto Blue Jays.

1. A Rotation in Shambles

Perhaps an overstatement but perhaps not. There's Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch but none of the other projected starters has a career ERA under 4.50. One of the best rotations in baseball will teeter on the verge of being mediocre. The health of Halladay and Litsch is essential for the pitching staff to be at least average.

2. Where are the Sluggers?

The Jays only had two players(Alex Rios and Vernon Wells) slug over .450 last season (the Orioles had 5 by comparison) and don't look like they will have any more than two players do it this season. Sure, Travis Snider might do it in a full-time role this year but Rios' slugging has declined for three straight years and Wells has already injured his hamstring...again. No one else is likely to provide consistent power to drive in runs for the Jays this season.

3. Scott Rolen

Before the 2008 season, the Jays traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen. Not only was Rolen two years older than Glaus, he was more expensive and under contract for a year longer than Glaus.

The Jays owe him $11 million per for the next two seasons. He has only played in more than 115 games and only posted an OPS+ greater than 120 once in the last four seasons. He is still a good fielder but no longer among the elite.

So why am I focusing so much on Scott Rolen? Because he is the highest paid Blue Jay, takes up more than 10% of the total payroll and he is a mediocrity at this point in his career.

For a team with a tight budget, the Rolen contract is an albatross.

4. The Infield Offense

It's kind of sad that Kevin Millar has a legitimate shot at leading all Blue Jay infielders in OPS in 2009.

Look at the names...Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Marco Scuturo, Aaron Hill, Rod Barajas, John McDonald, Michael Barrett...ancient Kevin Millar's bat doesn't look so bad when looking at the rest of the motley crew.

5. A Talented but Mecurial Outfield

Lots of talent in the outfield (and DH for whoever's not playing the field) but it's the production that's suspect.

We've already covered Alex Rios' declining power and Vernon Wells' injury issues (which won't get any better as he passes 30 this season). Adam Lind is talented but has yet to provide even a glimpse of the promise he did in the minors. Todd Snider looks like the real deal but is only 21 this year; it would be foolish to expect him to carry Toronto in his rookie season.

Conclusion:

The bullpen has been consistently good for years and they have a couple good arms at the top of the rotation. IF every one stays healthy, the Blue Jays will flirt with .500 all season. But they will be thin and unable to absorb a critical injury or setback to one of their starters. There is a fair chance that Baltimore finishes above them in the standings even if things go fairly well...

Base Hits: 3/2/2009

Jury duty has slowed down my blogging but while waiting for my panel to be called, I’ve had plenty of time to read everyone else’s….

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Steve DeClue believes the Orioles should trade Luke Scott.

I disagree. Who’s going to DH? Ty Wigginton? Scott is a legitimate offensive threat, even if he should be platooned from time to time. And I’d like to have a deep bench going into the season for a change. Having Scott on the team gives Dave Trembley a lot of options. On off days, Scott makes an imposing pinch hitter.

DeClue also mentions Lou Montanez and Nolan Reimold….let’s just set all this straight right now.

I like Montanez. Like him. I don’t love him. I would have been fine with him starting the season as the fourth outfielder. But the fact that he probably won’t be makes this team better. He was an average hitter at best and was a poor fielder by almost any measure you want to use. He’s 27 this season. He may get better but not that much better. Like him. Don’t get the fascination some fans have with the guy.

I like Reimold a lot but last season was the first year that he’s been healthy and produced. And it was at AA. I’d like to see him have some success in Norfolk before promoting him to the big club. Hardly a reason to trade Scott right now.

If the O’s decide to move Scott at the trading deadline this season, I’m all for it. But let’s take a look at this lineup as currently constructed before trading every veteran who’s not nailed down.

More Japanese baseball…

Ben Frazier at Oriole Central has more on Koji Uehara and tapped the expertise of the Michael Westbay, a writer for JapaneseBaseball.com. Good stuff.

Melvin Mora is not concerned about his contract status.

General rule: If you see a headline claiming that Mora is not concerned about his contract status, that means he’s very, very concerned about his contract status.

Steroids are wrong but overrated in their impact.

Head over to the Camden Depot blog and scroll down to the Feb. 22^nd entry. He makes a very good case that a change in the ball before the 1993 season has far more to do with the power explosion of the mid to late 1990’s.

SI’s Jon Heyman ranks the teams in terms of their offseason and ranks the Orioles 25 out of the 28 ranked teams.(He counted the Twins and Dodgers as incomplete…) Here’s what he has to say…

25. Orioles: They got Nick Markakis on a long-term deal, but didn't get any new players to make anyone think there's light at the end of the Fort McHenry Tunnel.

That’s it? Really, one of the laziest articles I’ve ever read. At least, throw in that our pitching sucks…give a little insight man!

I would take this opinion with a grain of salt though..he ranked the Phillies first for basically letting Pat Burrell go and replacing him with Raul Ibanez.

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Matthew of Roar from 34 looks back at Spring Training 1989...the dawn of the "Why Not?" Orioles on the 20th anniversary of that season.

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Can you guess which former Oriole Enchanting Sunshine met? I'll give you a hint: It's not Al Bumbry.

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Kevin at Oriole Card "O" the Day highlights a 2009 Topps Brian Roberts card and recounts his frustration with waiting for the new season of baseball cards to arrive at his local store. I can relate as I was quite an avid collector of baseball cards into my early 20's. Sometimes I miss those simple pursuits and sometimes I think I have just regained my sanity! (No offense Kevin!) But on this rare snowy Sunday in Atlanta, It make me want to open my old card binder and see if I can find an old Tim Hulett card.

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I was listening to the Orioles take on the Marlins on Saturday and Joe Angel was interviewing Andy MacPhail. Andy said that Matt Wieters would "have to hit .800 this spring" to break camp with the big club. I think we'll see him in June...

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Wayward O prepares for the "endless mOnth of March"...

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Weaver's Tantrum opines that Matt Albers is probably better suited to relief work based on the fact that he has only two pitches.

I disagree and, oddly for me, I have no empirical data to back up my opinion. Before he got hurt last season, Albers just looked like a starter to me. I thought he was the best candidate to make a Guthrie-like move from the 'pen to starter in '08 and, if healthy, I still think he has the stuff to do it in '09. Somebody's got to, right?

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Anthony reviews MLB Network's "30 Camps in 30 Days" feature on the Baltimore Orioles at the Oriole Post. Good show, catch it if you can in rerun form. It's rare to see the Orioles dealt with in any depth from the national media.

Interview With Patrick Newman, Founder of NPB Tracker

Ever since the Orioles signed Kenji Uehara, I’ve been trying to find out more about him and Japanese baseball in general. I mean, if the Orioles are serious about tapping this resource, why not learn a little more about the Nippon Pro Baseball league?

The blog NPB Tracker has been an invaluable resource for all things regarding Japanese baseball. But I still had some questions, so I talked site founder Patrick Newman into a mini-interview so I could get some clarity on a few subjects. I asked him about Koji Uehara, minor league signee Ryohei Tanaka and Japanese baseball in general. Thanks to Patrick for his time…the interview follows.

Dempsey’s Army: According to the Atlanta papers, Kenshin Kawakami has a contingent of 6 or 7 memebers of the Japanses press following him around Spring Training. Kenji Uehara seems to have at least twice that contingent even though Kawakami was touted as the better pitcher this offseason. What's the draw with Uehara?

Patrick Newman: Koji Uehara pitched for the Yomiuri Giants, who are basically the Yankees of Japan, so he has a national following. He's also been talking openly about pitching in the majors for years, so it's a good story that he's finally getting to do it now. And although Kawakami has been more consistent for the last few seasons, Uehara's peak performance was better, with Sawamura Awards* in 1999 and 2002.

*Japan's award for the best pitcher. It's like the Cy Young, but it actually pre-dates the Cy.

DA: Uehara has been primarily a reliever for the past two seasons. Why was that decision made? Also, are relievers in Japan used in a similiar fashion to the way they are used in the U.S. (i.e. one inning at a time on average...) or do they have longer stints? I am wondering how long it will take Uehara to stretch himself out to a starter again.

PN: Uehara was moved into relief after suffering an injury before the 2007 season. He was dominant in the closer role, and the Giants didn't have any other obvious closer candidates, so they left him there for the duration of the season. After 2007, they signed Marc Kroon to close, and moved Uehara back into the rotation. He struggled in 2008, got demoted, and pitched in middle relief, but got back into the rotation and put together a string of good starts in August and September.

Reliever usage patterns in Japan are similar to MLB -- you have closers, lefty specialists, middle relievers, etc. I think this is one of the reason we've seen a number of NPB relievers come over to America and do well. Starters in Japan tend to throw more pitches per start, but get more time in between starts. This is something that Uehara will have to adjust to. I don't know how long it will take him to adjust, but I would be a little surprised if he throws 200 innings this year.

DA: Outside of having to face some imposing lineups in the American League East, what do you think Uehara's biggest obstacle will be on his road to becoming a successful pitcher in the U.S.?

PN: Uehara has been home run-prone in his NPB career, so he'll have to work on keeping the ball down. Another thing is that he could count on getting the close calls in Japan, because of his reputation and his team. He won't have the benefit of the doubt in American. He seems to be cognizant of both these points though.

Off the field, he'll have to adjust to more travel, different food, a new language, etc.

DA: When he's in a jam, what is Uehara's "out" pitch? Which pitch does he command the best?

PN: In Japan it was his forkball.

DA: "Power pitcher" or "junkball" guy?

PN: "Finesse" guy. He has some good stuff but that doesn't include a power fastball.

DA: The stats for RHP Ryohei Tanaka are not impressive. He struggled during a cup of coffee with the Chiba Lotte Marinesand his minor league stats that you posted on NPB Tracker are not encouraging. He's only 26 but why would the Orioles be so interested in him? Does he have a big arm or was he highly touted (or drafted) out of high school?

PN: I've never seen him so I can't speak to how good his arm is or what he throws. I always take minor league stats with a grain of salt, because he might have been facing rehabbing major leaguers, or had a bad defense behind him, or working on a new pitch. But he rates haven't been good and he didn't improve statistically in his eight years.

The Orioles gave him a tryout and must have seen something they liked. He got a minor league contract paying him something like $40k, so there's no risk involved for the team.

DA: What is the view of NPB as a league about Japanese players having success in America? Is it a source of pride or are they concerned about how much talent if leaving the NPB? How do the fans feel?

PN: The league isn't crazy about the trend -- they were particularly upset about Junichi Tazawa last year and actually enacted a ban on players who skip NPB returning to Japan.The fans are more amenable to it. Guys like Ichiro and Matsuzaka are on the news every time they do anything, and their success is obviously a source of pride among most of the Japanese population. I like seeing those guys succeed, because I'm a fan of NPB and I think their success gives the league credibility.

DA: Before I die, I plan on visiting Japan and attending a professional baseball game while I'm there. Any tips for the average American baseball fan taking in a NPB game for the first time? Also, what is the Japanese version of a hot dog and a beer? Is there a traditional ballpark food in Japan?

PN: Get to Koshien Stadium in Osaka and see a Hanshin Tigers game, if you can. The stadium is a dump but there's no other baseball experience like it. I used to eat yakisoba, edamame, and sometimes dried squid at games in Japan -- I would say those are among the most generic items. All of the six Japanese stadiums I've been to served hot dogs, but I've only ever tried them at Osaka Dome. Osaka Dome also had McDonald's and KFC inside the stadium last time I was there. The Japanese version of beer is beer.

Five Things to Watch During Spring Training

Lots of new faces in Ft. Lauderdale this year...what should we be watching for when we watch the meager MASN slate of Spring Training games?

1. Koji Uehara…What’s Up With That?

Uehara is an exciting addition but he’s a huge unknown on this side of the Pacific. Raise your hand if you’ve seen him pitch. I’ve only seen some WBC footage on YouTube. How’s his delivery? How does that fastball pop? Can he control his breaking pitches? How will he do against the competition this Spring?

2. The Rotation…who will emerge?

When Spring Training broke in 2007, here was the starting rotation:

J. Guthrie
D Cabrera
A Loewen
S Trachsel
B Burres

As you know, only Guthrie remains in the organization. Uehara will be the number two starter by default but it’s a Battle Royale for the last three spots. We have star-crossed homegrown prospects (Hayden Penn), cast-off from other organizations (Brian Hennessey), former Cubs farmhands who can’t find the plate (Rich Hill), former Oriole farmhands who can’t find the plate (Radhames Liz), guys who weren’t even sure they wanted to be middle relievers two years ago (Danys Baez), guys dumped for minor league relievers by division rivals (David Pauley), guys coming back from serious shoulder injuries (Troy Patton, Matt Albers), former NBA players (Mark Hendrickson), recent First Round draftees (Brian Matusz) and various farm system products hoping for a shot (David Hernandez, Brad Bergensen, Chris Waters).

That’s at least 13 arms who will legitimately compete for three available spots in the rotation. (I won’t count Chorye Spoone, John Parrish, Chris Tillman, etc…guys who have no real shot at grabbing a spot.) That makes for a lot of competition and a hope that at least a couple of these guys break out and put a stranglehold on a spot in the rotation.

3. Luke Scott…Where’s he playing?

Dave Trembley has said that the arrival of Felix Pie will not spell the end of Scott’s time patrolling LF for the O’s. Scott says he’s willing to play some first base and the DH spot is wide open.

Contrary to popular belief, Scott’s defense in left was not bad at all. He doesn’t look great doing it but he fields his position well. It would seem a waste to put him exclusively at DH. It will be interesting to see how he handles first base; if he is competent, he could be an interesting option for that position in 2010 when Aubrey Huff departs.

4. The Catcher Situation…

Gregg Zaun has the starting job until Matt Wieters shows up but there are a few guys competing for that backup catcher spot…even if they will only have it for a few weeks. Robby Hammock, Guillermo Quiroz, Chad Moellers, Adam Donachie…but obviously that’s not the glamourous aspect of this story.

The interesting thing will be if Wieters plays well enough to break camp with the team. Now, given the free agency ramifications surrounding him, there’s little chance he heads north with the big club in April. Of course, I said the same thing about Nick Markakis three years ago. If he shows up and lives up to the hype of being Christ in a Catcher’s Mask, he’ll make the decision a lot harder for Andy MacPhail.

5. Who’s The Closer?

Or more precisely, how’s the bullpen going to shake out? But figuring out who the closer is will go a long way to figuring the rest of the ‘pen out.

If Chris Ray takes the closer spot back, what happens with George Sherrill? If Sherrill tkaes the setup job, does Jim Johnson take over as the 7th inning guy? Will Jamie Walker be reduced to lefty specialist? Will Walker be effective at all? Will Trembley feel comfortable with a 12 man pitching staff or will he continue to carry 13 arms? Who's the long relievers?

Mundane matters now but they won't be mundane once the games start to count.

Brian Roberts - Oriole For Life

The Orioles have reportedly signed second baseman Brian Roberts to a four year, $40 million extension which will keep him with the club through the end of 2013.

Objectively, I’ve already talked about the aging of second basemen and in light of that, this is a risky contract. Roberts is now the second highest paid second baseman in baseball (behind Chase Utley) and the extension kicks in during his age 32 season. I can’t imagine this contract will look so great during his age 34 and 35 seasons (2012 and 2013). I will root for Roberts to age gracefully but the reality is that middle infielders with his skill set tend to break down hard in their early 30’s.

Subjectively, a great move for the short term and a good PR move and not just for the fans. Roberts is a fan favorite and probably brings some people to OPACY for the singular purpose of watching him play. So the fans will be happy. But for free agents looking at signing with the Orioles, this sends a message that the Orioles are serious about making the commitment to win and with Roberts and Markakis locked up for the next few years, Baltimore is a much more attractive place to play.

And count me as a fan who is glad that we will be seeing Roberts in black and orange for the next five season…even if I may be cringing for the last two.

The Crystal Ball '09: Matt Wieters

For the last installment of this year's Crystal Ball, I was going to do some possible projections for the future rookie phenom Matt Wieters. But since Wieters is the most hyped Oriole prospect since Mike Mussina, he has been dissected and examined by everyone from fellow Oriole bloggers to national baseball writers. I've been trying to figure out an original angle on him...but as far as I can tell, he's been covered every which way you can imagine. So, I thought a recap of some of the projections would be the best way to go at this point.

ESPN's Keith Law ranked Wieters the #1 prospect in all of baseball and was uncharacteristically effusive in his praise for him.

Wieters is typically compared to one of two current big-leaguers: Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. Those are tough comps to hang on a player who has yet to sniff the big leagues, but in Wieters' case, they're merited...

Wieters could start 2009 in the majors, although giving him a one-month stint in Triple-A would give Baltimore the advantage of another year of control before Wieters hits free agency. Other than that possibility, there's nothing stopping him from becoming an impact catcher from Day One.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball calls him the "Best prospect in baseball. Mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza."

Dave Cameron looks at Wieters AA numbers at age 22 and shows how he compares favorably to other AA seasons by Miguel Cabrera, Jose Canseco, Pat Burrell, Vlad Guerrero and Eric Chavez.

Finally, Victor Wang compares Wieters against the number two prospect in baseball, Tampa Bay pitcher David Price. As it turns out, they aren't even close in terms of future value. Wieters laps him.

Various projections:

CHONE       .274/.352/.439
Bill James  .311/.407/.526
Oliver      .294/.373/.487
 

Even the most modest of these projections gives Wieters a season that hasn't been seen by an Oriole catcher since the Chris Hoiles era.

If all the projections are to be believed, Wieters will be the second best player on the team the moment he sets cleats on the field. Now we'll see if he actually lives up to the hype.

Base Hits: 2/13/2009

I had to give a tip of the hat to Desert O at Weaver's Tantrum who did a fair job of arguing that Rich Hill's control problems may have been injury related and Rick Ankiel-like mental blocks may have been overstated.

A well argued premise that seems to been given credence by Hill himself during an interview on The Hot Stove show in MASN. Per Roch Kubatko's blog:

Hill said the injury, to a "little joint" in his back, often occurs when attempting to lift something heavy.

"I tried to compensate so I could compete," he said. "It kept building and building, and every start it would get worse and worse.

"I blame myself for continuing on and trying to fight through it."

So a tip of the hat to Desert O. Nobody who writes about the Orioles had made that assertion before him. Well played sir, well played.

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Just in time for Valentine's Day, Garrett Olson is moving on with his new partner while removing reminders of the old one:

But Thursday morning (Garrett Olson) spent time getting rid of the last vestiges of his Baltimore Oriole pitching career.

He took a black magic marker and filled in all the orange on his pitching cleats, orange being the dominant color of the Orioles. Actually, Olson did it with one pair and clubhouse worker Pete Fortune did it with another pair. It was sort of a paint-by-number thing.

Olson eventually will get properly color-coded shoes inclusive of the Mariner blue and teal. But for the moment, ''I didn't want to go out there wearing the orange,'' Olson said.

This is the baseball version of removing the old pictures with your ex-girlfriend in them before bringing over a new prospect for dinner. Good luck looking for happiness Garrett...

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MASN has released their schedule for televised Spring Training games...only 4 Oriole games on the schedule. LAME.

Look, the Orioles are most certainly going to be a losing club in 2009 and the one thing fans have to look forward to are the young prospects. So let us see them play! This schedule could easily be doubled. I guess I'll be reduced to watching other teams during Spring Training...again.

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Write your own punchline. Feel free to leave them in the comments for this post!

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The Orioles have signed another Japanese pitcher, this time former Chiba Lotte Marine farmhand Ryohei Tanaka. According to a translation from NPB Tracker, Tanaka said "I was surprised. When I heard, tears came out." Given the state of recent Oriole teams, one has to wonder whether they were tears of sorrow or joy...

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Pitcher and catchers report on Sunday! Spring is nearly here!

BHI: Millar, Tejada and Tettleton

What is BHI? Look here...

Kevin Millar - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Kevin, we hardly knew you. Millar had a somewhat good rep for hitting big homers and he did hit 7 game-tying, a very good percentage. But he hit a ton of homers with nobody on base and hit nearly 15% of his Oriole homers when the O's were down by four runs or more...the ultimate in garbage time.

If not for one game ending home run against Boston in 2007, Millar would score somewhere in the Jay Gibbons range. Instead, he finishes with a slightly less lackluster score.

BHI - 117


Miguel Tejada - 102 Oriole Career Homers

While Tejada's "truthiness" is pretty suspect these days, his bat was not...at least early in his Oriole career. In fact, most of the good scores for Tejada are as a result of his monster 34 HR, 150 RBI 2004 Oriole debut.

The good: Above average scores in go ahead shots and a walk-off

The bad: Nearly a third of his Oriole homers came during Garbage Time and nothing else stands out.

Just like every aspect of his Oriole career, Tejada's BHI starts out with a splash, then peters out into mediocrity at the end.

BHI - 218


Mickey Tettleton - 52 Oriole Career Homers

Tettleton is one of my favorite players of all-time so I was pleased that he scored so well and dismayed by something I realized for the first time.

Mickey hit a very low percentage of his longballs during Garbage Time (19%...one of the lowest scores in this excercise) and a whopping 54% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles out in front. The only thing that keeps him from topping the list is his above average percentage of solo shots.

What I realized was this: It was October 3rd 1990. The Blue Jays (the team who had edged out the "Why Not?" Orioles for the division a year before) trailed the Red Sox by one game for the AL East lead heading into the the last day of the season. The score was tied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth...when Tettleton took Tom Henke deep to right center ending the Blue Jays playoff hopes.

In the offseason, Tettleton was traded to the Tigers for SP Jeff Robinson. Tettleton would hit 30+ homers in four of the next five seasons while Robinson would continue to suck until he was out of baseball.

That's right. Tettleton's last hit as a Baltimore Oriole was a walkoff homer with two outs in the ninth. Ouch.

Anyway, Tettleton rates among the Oriole greats in terms of BHI.

BHI - 444


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

A Quick Note on Steroids...

I am going to post this so I can refer to it in the future...

Another player who played from 1988-2003 has tested positive for steroids. Really, this is no surprise. It has happened before and will surely happen again. When I am 75 years old, people will be coming forward with proof that Player X took steroids back in the 1990's. I haven't been surprised for awhile and will never be surprised in the future. I won't be surprised if it turns out that Calvin Edwin Ripken, Jr. himself used steroids to some extent.

It matters not. The Steroids Era is easily placed into context and nobody should be excluded from the Hall of Fame simply because they are linked to steroid use. The problem was so widespread, we have to assume a great majority of the players from the 1990's were using. No one can be assumed to be "clean".

The best post I've seen lately about steroids is here:

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/the-clubhouse/steve-hulkower/how-are-so-many-people-upset-about-something-they-dont-even-understand/

OK, resume party...

The Crystal Ball '09: Melvin Mora

Friends, Baltimoreans, O's fans, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Melmo, not to praise him;
The outs that batters make live after them,
The bunt singles are oft interred with their bones,
So let it be with Melmo...
Melmo was ambitious with his fielding:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath Melmo answered it...

This is probably Melvin Mora's final season in Baltimore and it will probably be time for him to go. Since the end of 2004, Mora has been in decline. You shouldn't really expect much out of a 37-year old third baseman. I mean, he had a nice year in 2008 but that's just a lat hurrah for an old vet. Surely he'll regress back to his normal declining self in 2009. 2008 was a fluke. Right?

Since 1954, third basemen age 37 or over whose OPS+ was greater than 100:

         OPS+    Age
Schmidt      142     37
T. Fernandez 124     37
Nettles      120     40
Boggs        119     37
Nettles      119     38
Rose         119     37
B. Robinson  113     37
G. Gaetti    108     37

First, I would like The Warehouse to take note that the only player on this list who was an above-average hitter after their age 37 season: the freakish Graig Nettles. I have faith that Andy MacPhail will decline that club option for Mora for the 2010 season...

Second, excepting Nettles, there were only six other third basemen who were above-average hitters during their age 37 season in the last 54 years. Four are (or should be) Hall of Famers. Gary Gaetti's age 37 season was his last hurrah, at least as a third baseman. I suppose Mora could have another good season ala Tony Fernandez...but it's a real long shot. It just doesn't happen very often.

And Mora does NOT have the glove to make up for a slumping bat. Mora had worked himself into a decent fielder in recent seasons but he has been slipping. He wasn't the worst fielding third baseman baseball last season...but there was only one AL regular worse than him in 2008.

Still...his 2008 numbers were no fluke. His BABIP was .289, below his career average and his average on on groundballs was a measly .189. The point is that Mora was legitimately good last season. He was stroking line drives like a madman, he didn't just get lucky. It gives some hope that Melvin puts it together for one more year.

I still think the odds are long on that happening though. Look for a .260/.330/.410 line, something in that neighborhood. Don't be surprised if Wigginton is getting a lot of starts at third toward the end of the year.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Trade Monitors Updated

Trade Monitors have been updated to include the two major trades of the off-season. I suppose if we ever figure out who we're sending to Chicago for Rich Hill, I'll add that too.

I am taking down the Chris Britton for Jaret Wright trade. The Yankees got 2 WS out of Britton over two seasons and waived him this offseason. Britton performed well when he got a chance in 2007 but suffered thorough injuries in '08. On the other hand, the Orioles got only 10.3 innings from Wright during his Oriole career. The aftermath? Neither team got much value out of this trade. Wright's career is over and Britton was picked up on a minor league deal by San Diego.

I also added the Rodrigo Lopez trade. I had forgotten about it by the time I put the Trade Monitor together but seeing Jim Miller on the Spring Training invite list jogged my memory.

The Crystal Ball '09: Luke Scott

Luke Scott came over from Houston last offseason as one of the five players Baltimore received in return for Miguel Tejada. In terms of Win Shares, Scott nearly equalled Tejada's output in 2008. (see the Trade Monitor to your left...)

Scott, by default, was the best left fielder the Orioles have had since B.J. Surhoff hung up his cleats and filled a gaping hole that the Orioles has struggled with for years. (A sign of The Warehouse's ineptitude before Andy MacPhail arrived...how hard is it, really, to find an average leftfielder?)

But his struggles hitting lefties have continued. Scott hit .215/.300/.402 against lefties in 120 plate appearances in 2008. That's a big problem but a problem that may have been solved with some offseason acquisitions.

Dave Trembley has been averse to playing straight platoons, (He kept giving Jay Payton ABs against righthanded pitching when it was painfully obvious that the ONLY thing he could still do was hit against lefties...) but the addition of Ty Wigginton and, to a lesser extent, Ryan Freel could go a long way to mask Scott's weaknesses and cobble together an adequate DH that is greater than the sum of its parts. Imagine this guy at DH. Let's call him Tyanuke Freeginscott...:

        PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Scott  415  .269  .346  .492  .838
Wiggy  200  .320  .380  .510  .890
Freel   50  .331  .360  .435  .795
 

Total  665  .289  .357  .493  .850
 

That's not bad production from what would primarily be DH at-bats.

Yes, it's tough to platoon when you only carry three players on your bench but the guys they have now offer enough versatility to keep Scott out of situations where he will most likely fail. And he can be brought off the bench at key moments to face righthanded relievers.

And Scott's defensive woes have been overblown. He's not pretty doing it but he gets to most balls hit his way and can still help spell Felix Pie (who has been all but given the starting job) in left.

IF Trembley platoons him correctly, look for a .280/.350/.500 line over 400 ABs.

A Quick Word About Chris Gomez...

Since the signing of Ty Wigginton, the composition of the expected three-man bench has been kicked around, specifically the future of Chris Gomez. Sure, this Wigginton signing probably means Gomez doesn't make the team but who will back up Cesar Izturis at shortstop?

My response: Who cares?

You may want a defensive specialist who can play short on your bench if you have an offensive shortstop with some fielding deficiencies (Miguel Tejada). But the O's already have a defensive specialist as a full-time starter. You're not lifting Izturis late in the game for a defensive specialist. And if you pinch hit for him, stick Freel out there if necessary for an inning. One inning won't hurt.

Izturis blows out his knee? Stick Freel there for a game, then call up Jolbert Cabrera or Donnie Murphy (or someone of that ilk) from Norfolk.

Backup catcher I understand. Backup shortstop? Why keep a guy who would ONLY fill that role on a three-man bench? Not thick enough.

Gomez should not make this team barring injury or an expansion to a four-man bench. Period.

Ty Wigginton...Still Another Free Agent Signing

Ty Wigginton has signed a two-year deal to play for the Baltimore Orioles.

First, the negatives. Wigginton plays various positions (1B, 2B, 3B and OF) but doesn't play any of them particularly well, save for the corner outfield spots.

Even though he had a good year for Houston last year, he has basically been a league average bat over the course of his career.

His career OBP is .330.

He'll reportedly make $3 million per season for the next two years.

All that said, given his projected role, the signing will probably improve the team.

Why? He hits lefties very well and the Orioles needed someone to put in the lineup against C.C. Sabathias, Scott Kazmir and the other tough lefties Baltimore will have to face this year. Against LHP, Wigginton's line is .288/.364/.514 and in 2008 it was .340/.424/.631 . He'll go a long way to offset the weaknesses of Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff against lefthanded pitching.

He'll spell Melvin Mora in the field.

He'll likely push Chris Gomez off the roster. The fewer AB's that Gomez gets, the better this team is. (Baltimore will already be giving 600+ AB to Cesar Izturis...we can't afford anymore "good glove, bad bat" guys in the lineup...) In 2008, Gomez was a guy who played a lot of positions but none of them particularly well and he can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

So to recap, if this move prevents Gomez from making the 25-man roster and if Dave Trembley deploys him correctly (mostly against lefties), he'll be a useful player for the next couple seasons.

It'll be interesting to plug him into the WAR spreadsheet...

Rich Hill...The Latest Oriole Reclamation Project

The Orioles have acquired Cubs LHP Rich Hill for a player to be named later.

Hill had some success for the Cubs in '07 but quickly lost the ability to find the plate..at all, ala Rick Ankiel. This was true with the major league team and the AAA Iowa Cubs.

So why do the O's want him? The move will reunite Hill with his former pitching coach Rick Kranitz and his former minor league coach (and current bullpen coach) Alan Dunn which Andy MacPhail probably hopes will straighten Hill out.

Will it work? Probably not but there's a big upside if it does. The Orioles have should continue to make moves like this; low price, big risk, big upside. The farm system is better these days but is still really thin beyond the upper echelon of prospects. The O's need to gamble on guys like Hill, Pie, Moore, Uehara, Patton, etc. and hope a couple of them pan out. Is Hill of much use to the Cubs? No. Could he be useful to the Orioles? Maybe.

Add another arm to the mix. "We take anybody."

The Crystal Ball '09: The Rotation

After Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara, the rest of the starting rotation for your 2009 Baltimore Orioles is a mystery. I still expect the Orioles to pick up a veteran starter to stick in the 3 spot in the rotation but for now, here are the most likely candidates to fill the three available spots.

Hayden Penn – Penn is going to get a fair shot at the starting rotation this season and I feel OK about that. Why? Outside of the top two spots, I’m not sure there’s anyone better suited for the job. He's probably the most talented guy on the list and he has had success at AAA, he just needs to stay healthy and get some major league innings under his belt.

Second, Penn had very good numbers when it comes to inducing groundballs. He induced grounders at a 48% rate in Norfolk and if you don’t include his shaky April, the rest of the year it was somewhere around 53%. That’s good. Why were his overall numbers so bad then? First, he didn’t strike out a lot of guys. Second, his infield was….well, let’s just say that there weren’t many plus defenders in that Norfolk infield. If Penn is getting grounders at a 50% rate in Baltimore, having Brian Roberts and Cesar Izturis behind him will serve him well. And as long as he keeps it in the park, the young outfield should be able to run down a lot of his mistakes. Penn only walked guys at about a 3 per 9 rate. If he can stay healthy long enough, he could become a valuable player in the rotation for ’09 and ’10.

Chris Waters – Waters is getting overlooked as a starter in ’09 but his rate stats from last season were only surpassed by Daniel Cabrera and Jeremy Guthrie last season. He found ways to get by with really limited stuff. He famously debuted pitching 8 innings of one-hit ball and later in the season pitched a complete game shutout in Toronto. He took his share of beatings but pitched into the 5th inning everytime and often pitched into the 6th or 7th. He’s a good candidate for a 5th starter, an innings eater who can cherry-pick some wins at the back of the rotation.

Mark Hendrickson - I've talked about what I expect from Hendrickson here.

Radhames Liz – He may not ultimately be a starter but he’ll be forced to be one this year, at least early. He's a flyball pitcher, not a good fit for OPACY unless his strikeouts dramatically increase and his walks come down. It would be nice if he could work out these issues in the bullpen but the Orioles probably won’t have that luxury. With a little luck, other candidates for the rotation will develop enough that he’s a reliever after the All-Star break.

David Pauley – Pauley is an interesting candidate. Coming over in a trade from the Red Sox for RP Randor Bierd, he has solid AAA numbers. He’s a groundball pitcher and induces a lot of pop-ups. His strikeout numbers in AAA were respectable too. At worst, he could be an innings eater. At best, he improves to be an league average starter in the second half?

Brad Hennesey/Brian Burress – A pair of soft-tossing waiver claims from the Giants organization.

Burress has shown a tendency to issue free passes and, when he finds the plate, serve up big home runs. Only a marked unexpected improvement in those tendencies or massive injuries to the rotation keep him on this team in 2009 (He was equally bad out of the bullpen in ’08).

Hennesey could be a sleeper. His former first-round draftee status has some comparing him to Jeremy Guthrie. I don’t see it. He’s never struck out batters at a very good rate, walks batters at an average rate and doesn’t induce enough ground balls to offset his mediocrity in those two categories. I suppose a change of scenery may help him but he’s a longshot.

Troy Patton/Matt Albers – Going into Spring Training 2008, I thought Patton had the best shot of any of the youngsters at cracking the starting rotation. As injuries mounted in the rotation, I thought Albers was best suited to move from the ‘pen and grab a spot as a starter. Why do I lump them together? They both suffered rotator cuff injuries before they could seize their respective opportunities. Patton underwent surgery, Albers opted for rehab. Both are now big question marks. If either are able to start a significant number of games in 2009, it will be gravy.

Hey, let’s not kid ourselves, this ain’t pretty. Guys like Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergensen are not going to show up in Baltimore until the second half of ’09 at the earliest. This list is what we’ve got to work with for the first few months of the season. There’s guys to dream on or root for but realistically the Orioles will be insanely lucky if one of these guys breaks out and put a choke hold on one of the spots in the ’09 Oriole rotation.

It's going to be a rough year for the putching staff...

Nestor Goes Nutso

I have always maintained that Nestor Aparicio is a paranoid raving lunatic (or at least puts on like he is) but this little incident is beyond even what I thought he was capable of.



Now, there are two sides to every story but this doesn't look good. And some anti-Semitic comments were alleged in an earlier confrontation between these two.

This is not the first incident between Nasty Nestor and the Ticket. In 2008, at the Super Bowl coverage, Corby Davidson went to Nasty Nestor to make peace. Nestor Aparicio began swearing at Corby Davidson and accused him of having a hidden mic, to which Corby responded, “I swear to the good Lord I do not have a microphone.” Nasty Nestor then allegedly called Corby a “(Explitive)-ing Jew.”

Sounds like someone needs to go to anger management. Allegedly.

Commentary about the incident can be found here,
here and here.

Base Hits: 1/29/2009

Some transaction news:

SS Brandon Fahey has signed a minor league deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. It's the end of the Fahey era... Fahey seemed like a good guy and a team player but he couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag and his glove wasn't nearly as good as advertised. In fact, he was surprisingly bad in the field. Good luck to Toronto as they try to find value in another one of our cast-offs.

Oscar Salazar cleared waivers and was invited to Spring Training. I'm not sure why so man fans thought some other team was going to swoop in and claim a soon-to-be 31 year old career minor leaguer but I think the fact Salazar cleared waivers speaks volumes on his ability.

Non-roster invitees to watch: Jake Arrieta, Brad Hennessey, Chris Tillman, Adam Donachie, Matt Wieters, Blake Davis, Chris Gomes, Donnie Murphy and Brandon Snyder. More on this later...

*****

Cal Ripken, Jr gives Texas SS cum 3B Michael Young advice about making the switch to the hot corner.

*****

An article on former Oriole first-rounder Adam Loewen and his quest to switch from pitching to hitting this season. To quote Silky Johnston, "I don't even know you, but I hate you. I hate your guts. I hope all the bad things in life happen to you and only to you. "

*****

It's been pretty standard to be critical about the Baltimore Orioles' lack of focus on being "fan-friendly" under the Peter Angelos regime and admittedly most of it has been valid. But I can't say enough about the Junior Orioles Dugout program. I have signed my son up for this for the last 4 years and their customer service for this program is top notch. They always have the information available shortly after New Year's Day (if not sooner), the price is reasonable (especially compared to similar programs run by other teams) and my son looks forward to getting his package every year. A very well run program.

Even though fan relations have changed for the better under Andy MacPhail, this is a program that was well-run before he got here.

*****

Seattle may soon have two former Oriole lefties in their rotation. The Cubs sent recently acquired Garrett Olson and IF Ronny Cedeno to Seattle for RP Aaron Heilman.

Heilman was acquire at the winter meetings in a three team trade that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets. Let's break it down...

Seattle traded RP J.J. Putz, RP Sean Green, IF Luis Valbeuna and OF Jeremy Reed for OF Endy Chavez, IF Mike Carp, OF Franklin Gutierrez, OF Ezequiel Carrera, SP Maikel Cleto, IF Ronny Cedeno and SP Garrett Olson. That trade looks a bit better for the Mariners now.

The Cubs ultimately traded OF Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for...Aaron Heilman and Class A RP Henry Williamson. Wow. All that for Aaron Heilman? OK....

On another note, the trade is great for Garrett Olson. He'll have a better shot at making the starting rotation and Safeco Field is a pitcher's park. If Olson is ever going to develop into an effective major league starter, there are worse places to pitch than Safeco.

*****

Koji Uehara is reportedly hard at work developing new pitches, including a changeup. (If you can't read Japanese, click here...) In Japan, Uehara got by mainly with his fastball and fork ball, with the occasional cutter and "shuuto" (whatever that is). He is working on a changeup and has reportedly developed a new "spike-curvey" pitch, a curve that he throws while gripping the ball with his middle finger only. Perhaps he should call it The Bird?

Uehara is working out with Houston infielder Kaz Matusui, trying to adjust to the MLB strike zone, adjusting to the MLB ball and working on his stamina. It doesn't appear that Uehara will fail due to lack of preparation...

The Crystal Ball '09: Brian Roberts

Second basemen typically do not age well. Many of them began a decline shortly after their 31st birthday. Brian Roberts…will be 31 this season.

It is rare for a 2B to age gracefully like Jeff Kent. Most fall off a cliff in their thirties. Roberto Alomar dropped off a cliff at age 34. Craig Biggio was greatly reduced after his age 33 season. Ryne Sandberg dropped off at after age 32. Steve Sax had his last good season at 31.

So with all this in mind, is Brian Roberts beginning to show signs of decline? Maybe.

Roberts' stolen base percentage slipped to 80% in 2008 (down from 87% in 2007 and 83% in 2006) and "only" stole 40 bases vs. 50 in 2007.

His fielding numbers were down as well. His UZR has declined for four straight years (5.9, 4.9, 3.5, -0.3).

But there are other indicators that Roberts' speed (which is an integral part of his game) has not diminished. His career Infield Hit percentage is 5.4% and in 2008 it was 5.5%. His ability to leg out grounders remains fairly consistent. And his base stealing is down but it's still pretty damn good.

Furthermore, his BABIP was .341 last season which seems high and seems primed for a regression. But his Line Drive Percentage was 23.9% and typically if you add .120 to the LD% number, you get an expected BABIP value. Roberts' expected BABIP would be .359. Roberts was actually a bit unlucky with his BABIP last season.

There are some small signs of decline but nothing seems to be pointing to Roberts' performance falling off a cliff.

But I just can't shake that historical data I've seen from other second baseman over the years. Roberts will still be an elite middle infielder but I'll call his line .285/.375/.435 with 43 stolen bases vs. 12 times caught. Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at and fall in line with Roberts' excellent performance over the past three seasons.

Photo by Phil Romans and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Base Hits: 1/23/2009

I've been meaning to get to the recent comments by Leo Mazzone...so here it is.

Leo Mazzone made these comments to the intensely annoying Atlanta Journal Constitution sports columnist Terrance Moore:


“Once I got there and saw how they operated compared to the Braves, I knew I made a mistake the first week of spring training,” he said, before chuckling and adding, “I said to myself, ‘You know what? I done messed up.’


“The lack of organization. The lack of discipline. The lack of overall professionalism. I was shocked, and I couldn’t believe it.”


A couple of observations:


1) He's probably got some very good points.
2) His best buddy, sad-sack #1, Sam Perlozzo, was running things at the time. Is this a swipe at Perlozzo as well as The Warehouse?
3) When his buddy Perlozzo was shown the door, did Leo take the opportunity to liberate himself from his predicament? On the contrary. He practically begged for his job:


"I want to go until I'm 62, and I hope the rest of the way it's in a Baltimore uniform," he said. "I mean this place, it's my home state and this is one of the greatest sports towns in the United States. All we have to do is start winning, and you'll never be able to get a ticket. These fans deserve that. They treat everybody very graciously."


4) When the Orioles showed Leo the door, they gutted the organization. Andy MacPhail cleaned house (by and large) fronm the minors on up to the GM office. His observations are probably less true now than in 2006.
5) Leo's giving his mea culpa to the fans of Atlanta and the Braves front office. He wants to come work for the Atlanta Braves again. And all in all, who can blame him? I don't. But remember: he kept cashing the Oriole checks last season and they made him a very wealthy man.


*****


The Orioles have signed Luke Scott to a one year deal worth $2.4 million for 2009.

Scott continued to struggle against left handed pitching last season but still managed to post an OPS of .807 coming from one of the weakest divisions in baseball to the strongest division in baseball. The man we traded him for, Miguel Tejada, only posted a .729 OPS for the Astros last season. Tejada stands to make $13 million next season. Which player would you rather have going into 2009?

Even if that trade had been Scott for Tejada straight up, the Orioles made out like bandits. And we got four other players back!

*****

Paul Sullivan has done a very thorough and entertaining write-up on the Orioles' best home-grown players as well as their best acquired players, put them on opposing teams and imagines who might win head-to-head. If Sullivan isn't a die-hard Orioles fan, he should change his middle name to Rain Man to be able to pull so many details about the various Oriole players he profiles.

*****

Oriole Spring Training Update: The drama continues. Lee County now wants the money earmarked for Sarasota to lure an MLB team for Spring Training (and they have failed in their pursuit of the Orioles) so they can use it to lure the Baltimore Orioles to City of Palms Park in Ft. Myers. Officials in Lee County feel that they are 80 percent done with the Orioles deal and want to lay their hands on any money they can find.

According to this editorial, the negotiations with Peter Angelos for the O's to takeover the old Dodgertown facility were no picnic...

*****

ESPN has a chat with Matt Wieters posted if you want to get to know the future Orioles star. One excerpt:

Bob (Baltimore, MD): What do you think of playing in Camden Yards? Can you hit the warehouse?

Matt Wieters: (4:08 PM ET ) I don't know about that, but I'm definitely looking forward to playing there. It's not going to have all the bells and whistles of the newest parks, but it's beautiful and will be around for a long time.

Doesn't have all the bells and whistles of the newest parks? How old do I feel now? I still think of OPACY as a "new" park. This kid thinks it's Tiger Stadium.

Oh , and he'll have his crabcake broiled, not fried.

*****

Speaking of ESPN and prospects, Keith Law has ranked the Oriole farm system as the 10th best in baseball. I can't remember the last time the O's farm system was top ten in anything positive.

And he's not alone. Baseball America has them ranked 10th as well.

On a related note, Law names Matt Wieters the top prospect in all of baseball and is exceedingly glowing in his praise. Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta also made the list.

WAR: Predictions for the 2009 Orioles

Thanks to a tip from Frost King, I have discovered the WAR spreadsheet over at Beyond the Boxscore. This spreadsheet predicts team wins using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) calculations for individual players.

There's a lot of unknowns involved but based on educated guesses and various systems of projections, I have compiled my version of the WAR spreadsheet for the 2009 Orioles. The result? I think we'll be able to pencil the Orioles in for 77 wins in '09. Obviously, injuries will lower the projection but if Wieters gets to Baltimore ahead of schedule or a young pitcher breaks through...maybe 81 wins? I know, I'm dreaming...

(For what it's worth, since I did my first draft of the spreadsheet, the club has added Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and David Pauley. They have pushed less effective players to either less playing time or of the roster completely...leading to an improvement of 4 wins...)

Frost King's version of the spreadsheet is here. He is contributing to Beyond the Boxscore's Community WAR Project 2009 and is looking for community projections over at Frost King Baseball. Go give him some help!

The Crystal Ball '09: Aubrey Huff

Last year at this time, I was bashing Aubrey Huff for being a slugger who was modestly successful in his prime but well into his decline phase and probably wouldn't hit better than league average in 2008.

Of course, he went out and had a career year, was the best bat on the team and was named Oriole MVP. Shows what I know.

Now, there are two possible causes for Huff's results last year:

1) He simply had a career year and his decline will continue in earnest in 2009

2) He received a cosmic kick in the butt, refocused himself and will enjoy a late career renaissance.

After Aubrey's so-so 2007 and the whole controversy he created with his comments on the Bubba the Love Sponge Show, it is indeed possible that Huff saw the end of his career staring him in the face. Let's face it, if the Orioles are willing to kick you to the curb, are there really that many teams that are looking for your services? Hell, if you signed with the O's to begin with, there probably weren't many teams looking for you in first place. Maybe this spurred Huff into a more diligent offseason and more focus on the diamond instead of the nightlife he loves so well.

As much as I'd like to believe it, I don't. I imagine Huff's performance will slip back to something just above his 2007 output and he will be a much more ordinary player.

But the real question, now that Felix Pie has pushed Luke Scott to a role that wil primarily be as a DH, is how well Huff will hold down a job in the field for the first time in 3 years.

It's nice to have a slick-fielder manning first base but the truth is that a first baseman's defense hurts you far less than any other position in the field. If you're going to have a bad defender on your team, a bad firstbaseman hurts you the least. When touting Adam Dunn over Mark Teixeira , there were arguments that not only was Dunn not Teix's equal at the plate but he wasn't his equal with the glove. (BTW, the difference in batting wasn't the point. Teix is a better hitter, just not "double the money" better than Dunn. But I digress...) But the glove matters little at first.

From FanGraphs.com, the difference in UZR/150 from the best centerfielder (Carlos Gomez) and the worst (Nate McClouth) was 32.1 runs. the difference between the best shortstop (Orlando Cabrera) and the worst (Yuniesky Betancourt) was 28.1 runs. The difference between the top fielding firstbaseman (Teixeira) and the worst (Prince Fielder) was 17.6 runs.

And I don't think he will be among the worst fielders in 2009. Over the course of the last few seasons, Huff has logged nearly 1800 innings at first posting a -2.6 UZR/150. That's just below average if you go by 2008 standards. I figure that Huff can approach average with his glove if he's handed the full-time job and allowed to play there exclusively all year. I think Huff will be further motivated to be perceived as a firstbaseman vs. a DH as he heads for free agency in 2010.

I'll be posting a full WAR spreadsheet at some point but I have Huff penciled in for a WAR of 1.7 in 2009. Look for a capable, if not great, glove, and something close to his Marcel projection of .280/.342/.475.

Photo by Phil Romans and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Markakis Locked Up and Bierd Traded to Sox

The Orioles have reportedly locked up RF Nick Markakis with a 6-year, $66 million deal.

This is welcome news and a (relatively) long time coming. Markakis is overlooked outside of Baltimore but is legitimately one of the best young ballplayers in the majors. For 2008, OPS+ leaders for players under 25:

              OPS+
C. Quentin     148
H. Ramirez     146
D. Wright      141
J. Mauer       137
N. Markakis    134
B. Mcann       134
M. Cabrera     130
G. Sizemore    128
P. Fielder     128
R. Braun       128

He's an elite talent, with the bat and the glove, and now he's an Oriole through 2014, his age 31 season.

FanGraphs.com values Markakis' 2008 performance at $24.3 million but even by current values in the marketplace, $11 million per season is a bargain for Markakis. In a market that pays Raul Ibanez $10.5 million per season, the Orioles saved themselves a lot of headaches later on. Especially since Nick Markakis is due for a breakout season in 2009.

In other news, RP Randor Bierd was traded to the Boston Red Sox for SP David Pauley.

Randor, we hardly knew ye. The Orioles acquired Bierd from the Detroit Tigers in last year's Rule 5 draft and he made quite a splash in April by pitching 13.1 innings at a 2.03 ERA. But he hurt his shoulder, didn't return to action until late July and wasn't the same after that. I would not be shocked if he straightens himself out but with a glut on minor league righthanded relievers, The Warehouse viewed him as expendable.

David Pauley is likely cannon fodder for the 2009 rotation, perhaps a long reliever. Pauley did manage to post a 4.52 FIP is a couple cups of coffee with the Sox but seems to be similar to the recently departed Garrett Olson; a soft-tossing finesse guy who may turn out to be a AAAA pitcher.

But as I've said before, the slogan for the 2009 Oriole rotation will be "We'll Take Anybody"...

Olson Out, Orioles Get a Slice of Pie...

The Orioles have acquired OF Felix Pie for SP Garrett Olson and minor league pitcher Henry Williamson.

Pie has been linked to the Orioles in trade rumors since last off-season but the latest round of talks seemed to involve Jay Peavy in a three-way deal. But after the Cubs signed Milton Bradley, Pie got squeezed out of the Cubs outfield picture for the foreseeable future and they shipped him out.

Garrett Olson has been unable to miss bats in the majors and his fly-ball tendencies has led him to post a 6.87 ERA in 33 starts over the last two seasons. I doubt he'll find much more success in Wrigley Field but that may not be his final destination.

Pie has (as of yet) been unable to recreate his success in the minors in the bigs but has only had 287 plate appearances to try to sort it all out. All in all, I'd give the 24-year old Pie a better chance of fulfilling his potential than the 25-year old Olson, especially considering that Pie has been considered one of the best prospects in all of baseball.

According to Andy MacPhail, Pie will be the starter in left field, pushing Luke Scott to DH and Aubrey Huff to full-time at 1B. I mentioned earlier that Nick Markakis and Adam Jones were the best pair of outfielders in the game. Pie adds to that defensive prowess and if there's a better defensive outfield in baseball, I can't think of it.

CHONE is prediciting an OPS of .757 for Pie (which may be a bit optimistic) but if he exceeds .700 with that glove, he's a very useful player starting this season. And before Luke Scott arrived last season, LF was an offensive black hole. And he has real possibilities to improve.

Barring injuries the lineup looks pretty set. Dave Trembley intends to carry 13 pitchers, so Luis Montanez, Oscar Salazar, Scott Moore, Chris Gomez and whoever else gets in to the mix will be battling it out for one roster spot.

1B Huff
2B Roberts
3b Mora
SS Izturis
RF Markakis
CF Jones
LF Pie
OF\IF Freel
DH Scott
Util Gomez\Salazar\Moore
C Zaun
C Moellers\Wieters

Not exactly a world-beating lineup but it has potential.

I like the move overall. It's a risk but one with a lot of upside. And now that Andy MacPhail has his prize (he wouldn't let this one go, would he?), he can move on to other matters this offseason...

Dempsey's Army is Moving On...But Not Really

Hello everybody. I have been offered a chance to host Dempsey's Army over at MVN, the network that Oriole Magic and, now, Ben Frazier's Oriole Central now reside.

But I'm not willing to relinquish this space yet, not now that I am finally comfortable with my surroundings. So I will be cross-posting most of my entries here and at MVN for the near future with 3 or 4 exclusive posts for MVN a month and some exclusive posts here that I feel don't fit into a strict Oriole-centric format. So for the foreseeable future, check both sites for new material.

One of the reasons I'm keeping both blogs for now is that I don't like the formatting or look of most blogs at MVN (no offense to them, just my personal preference) and even though my blog is very basic, I like the layout and the function of it. It's mine, dammit! But even today I've already figured out how to turn off the (to me) annoying default "truncated" view of the posts at MVN which is a big improvement. I think there's a lot of potential there but I'm really going to have to brush up on my HTML to get it where I want it. So it's possible in the future, when the new site looks and feels the way I want it, that I will leave this site to the internet wasteland and blog only at MVN but I think that's months away. What can I say, I can't let go of my blanky yet.

Thanks to everyone who reads this, the suggestions many of you have made and give me some feedback on the new site if you care to. It's here...

MVN: Dempsey's Army

OK, resume party...

The Crystal Ball '09: Adam Jones

Adam Jones. The Truth. The jewel of the Erik Bedard trade. One of the cornerstones of the Orioles' rebuilding project.

But what was he last season really? If you stop dreaming on the guy's raw talent, what did he really accomplish in 2008?

Well, for one, he was arguably the best defensive outfielder in baseball, perhaps the best fielder of any kind in baseball. There is no denying that, regardless of Gold Glove voting, the Oriole have the best pair of fielders, in center and right, than any team in baseball. It has been years since the Orioles could claim to possess the best of anything but I believe this point if easily defended. Jones led AL centerfielders in RZR. Markakis led full time AL rightfielders and has 17 kills. Case closed.

(Note to O's pitchers: keep the ball in the park and these guys will catch it.)

So if Jones proceeds at a reasonable rate of development for a guy in his early 20's, he'll probably be the next Paul Blair. But I think we're hoping for a little more than that.

The biggest impediment to Jones' development will be his control of the strike zone. Jones is a free swinger.

Quick quiz: what two Oriole outfielders put up these individual seasons?

           AVG   OBP   SLG   BB   K   HR   SB   R   RBI
Player A     .276  .314  .443   21  94   16   45  75    53
Player B     .270  .311  .400   23 108    9   10  61    57

Pretty similar seasons. Who are these players? I'll give you a minute to think about it...
.
.
.
.
.
Ready? Player B is Adam Jones in 2008. Player A is Corey Patterson in 2006.

That'll curb your enthusiasm, huh?

So that plate control needs to improve unless Adam Jones is going to develop Vlad Guerrero-level bat control skills. Is there hope?

According to Baseball-Reference.com, age 22 Adam Jones compares very favorably to Mark Kotsay, Dave Martinez and Johnny Damon (who all improved their plate control but never struck out like Jone) but the guy who I think looks the most like Jones is Chili Davis.

Davis struck out more than 100 times at age 22 and 23 but cut the strikeouts to 74 in his third season and although his strikeout total routinely crept over the 100 level over the course of his career, by then he was drawing plenty of walks and finished his career with an OBP of .360. (Also 350 career home runs...) This would be the career path we O's fans should hope for.

But this year, don't look for anything more than marginal improvement at the plate...

Around the Oriole Blogosphere: The Kumbaya Edition

On the left hand side of this blog, farther on down the page, is a list of links to other Oriole blogs. This is not unique to my blog but one thing that is is that I update that list on a regular basis. If a blog goes dormant or is not up to my personal reading standards, I take it off the blogroll. If I don't enjoy it, why would I recommend it to others?

So understand, if I link to your blog, it's because I believe your blog has something to offer to the blog-reading Oriole fan. (As an aside, if you have a blog that you think is worth looking at that I don't link to, let me know...)

So here is a sampling from many of the great Oriole bloggers, who have to be true fans given their enthusiasm after 11 losing seasons...

Anthony at Oriole's Magic takes a look at the offseason so far.

Jay at the Examiner looks at the remaining free agent options for the Orioles this year.

Matthew Taylor at Roar From 34 examines a case of denial regarding the Orioles 30-3 loss to Texas in 2007. Also, check out Matt's excellent series, The Eutaw Street Chronicles

Frostking looks at the Hall of Fame vote and the prospects for the Oriole rotation in 2009 at Frost King Baseball.

Kevin offers up a daily Oriole card with commentary at Orioles Card "O" the Day. On Tuesday, it was a Mike Boddicker card from 1988.

Kevin also maintains the NumerOlogy site, a thorough review of every uniform number donned by an Oriole player among other things.

Iffy "inside sources" aside, Orioles Hangout offers a wide variety of news and observations on the Oriole organization, from the lowest levels of the minors all the way up to the big club.

Enchanting Sunshine has been fairly quiet of late but offered up her own thanks to the community of Oriole bloggers at Sixteen Gold Gloves. Also, check out E.S.'s excellent pictorial tribute to the Orioles of her childhood on the Oriole Memories page.

Neal S at The Loss Column looks at some of the Orioles' minor moves but is far more distracted by the Ravens these days. If you happen to be a Ravens fan, i can't say I blame you.

Weaver's Tantrum celebrates its first anniversary. Desert O spent half of his first season on the Appalachian Trail (which he blogged about and it's a great read on its own) but has been blogging like mad ever since he returned to civilization.

The contributors at Camden Chat are prolific but a recent highlight was a thorough and entertaining look at the 2009 rotation by SC.

Scouting is the name of the game at The Camden Depot. I get a little lost in the links with their new website design but there is a very detailed look at the top 30 Oriole prospects on the front page. Read it and look smart the next time you take in a game in Bowie.

There are a few things I can count on to make me laugh on a consistent basis. Kevin Smith and Scott Mosier on SModcast. Chris Rock's standup. 30 Rock. The Boondocks. The Wayward Oriole.

Dean Smith is a fantastic writer. The sporadic gems he doles out at Oriole Poet are always worth reading. This one about Yankee Stadium is a recent highlight.

Oriole Post has a new home. And I have to say I like it a lot better than the old version. Anthony posts constantly on the Orioles but the real treat on Oriole Post is Anthony's photography. Here's a sample.

Check these guys out. All are worthy of being bookmarked.

Base Hits:1/14/2009

Peter Bernstein has done a study about how payroll correlates to winning for ESPN. The study looks at the most cost effective teams and the least cost effective teams since 1998. Not surprisingly, the Oakland A's come in first. Neither is it surprising that the Orioles were in last.

The Orioles averaged $100 million in payroll from 1998-2008, more than league average. They would be expected to average 83 wins per season at that level. Instead, they have averaged 72.

So the drought of winning seasons has little to do with an unwillingness to spend money (at the level they spend the Oriole should have fluked into a winning season at one point during the past 11 seasons) but the unwise spending of that money. Over the course of this losing streak, they have only been outspent by 9 teams.

Take comfort that the The Warehouse is trying something new...

*****

Couple of transactions:

O's sign RP Chris Ray to one-year deal.

Hopefully, Ray is coming back fully healthy. If so, expect him to reclaim the job as closer by the end of the year and George Sherrill goes back to a 7th inning or specialty role. Stronger bullpen, which will be needed given the question marks around the rotation.

O's sign INF Chris Gomez to a minor league deal.

I'm fine with a minor league deal for Gomez but many fans seem to believe he's going to make the team. That would be a brutal situation.

Assuming the O's carry 13 pitchers, that leaves this list for the position players:

RF Markakis
CF Jones
LF Scott
OF Montanez/Reimold
1B Salazar
2B Roberts
3B Mora
SS Izturis
Util Freel
C Zaun
C Moeller/Wieters

That's eleven, leaving one spot open. The Orioles are still looking for DH/1B help so if they bring somebody in that leaves Oscar Salazar, Chris Gomez, Donnie Murphy and Scott Moore to battle for the last spot on the bench.

We already have a utility guy (Freel) and there is no reason to have a defensive specialist behind a great defender like Izturis. I'd rather see the spot go to one of the younger guys with some more pop (Salazar or Moore) coming off the bench. Their potential production will help fill bigger holes for the Orioles than Gomez will. Let's face it, the Orioles will need more help on the corners than up the middle this season. My two cents.

Gregg Zaun rumored to be close to agreement with Baltimore.

I wholeheartedly welcome Rick Dempsey's nephew back to the team. I thought Baltimore should have brought him back earlier in his career (before he signed with the Blue Jays) but better late than never. He'll be a great placeholder for Matt Wieters and can hit well enough to DH every now and then. Good news if it's true.

Oh, and he'll bring his Z-Game. Anyone who can combine Zorro and Rush is OK in my book.

*****

Orioles Spring Training Relocation Caravan Update: Apparently, Fort Myers is now in the mix too...

*****

Jay Gibbons signed a minor league deal with the Florida Marlins. Am I crazy to think he could actually help that team? Good luck, Jay.