Thursday, March 1, 2007

2007 Projections: The Outfield

Part two of this series, the first post concerning the infield is here. Now, the outfield!

Nick Markakis


R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 64 125 23 2 14 57 4 1 39 65 .295 .357 .458 .814
CHONE 74 140 29 2 15 71 3 1 49 81 .291 .360 .456 .816
B. James 86 168 35 3 19 84 2 1 55 78 .307 .373 .486 .859
AVG 75 144 29 2 16 71 3 1 48 75 .298 .363 .467 .830

You gotta love the Bill James projection for this guy. While I would love for his production to be on the high side, I am leaning more toward the mean here. I'm going to say Nick matches the average projection and hope that he can take a big leap to eclipse it.


Aubrey Huff


R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 63 128 23 2 20 73 4 2 45 69 .274 .341 .460 .801
CHONE 70 139 26 2 24 71 3 2 50 68 .278 .350 .477 .828
B. James 72 152 31 1 24 84 2 1 51 77 .279 .346 .472 .818
AVG 68 140 27 2 23 76 3 2 49 71 .277 .346 .470 .816


These projections are all pretty much in the same ballpark (no pun intended). Huff will exceed these projections this year, especially in homeruns. He will hit at least 25 this season.


Corey Patterson

R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 65 120 21 4 16 50 27 6 28 106 .261 .309 .429 .738
CHONE 62 129 22 4 17 62 31 8 28 103 .269 .315 .438 .754
B.James 81 150 27 5 20 63 38 11 31 133 .261 .303 .430 .733
AVG 69 133 23 4 18 58 32 8 29 114 .264 .309 .432 .742


I'm a fan of Corey Patterson and love him in centerfield but there's no way Corey hits 18-20 homeruns this year. I hate to say this but he will not match the average projection this year, except the stolen bases which I expect him to exceed.


Jay Payton

R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 69 137 24 3 13 62 5 2 31 60 .275 .318 .413 .731
CHONE 59 146 25 2 13 62 3 2 32 58 .287 .333 .422 .755
B.James 39 82 14 1 8 35 3 2 17 33 .278 .324 .414 .737
AVG 56 122 21 2 11 53 4 2 27 50 .280 .325 .416 .741


These projections are based on over 500 plate appearances so this is an easy call to say Payton will not approach these raw numbers although I imagine his batting average and slugging will be in the ballpark.

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