Base Hits: 7/31/2009

Reaction to the George Sherrill Trade:

Rob Neyer of ESPN:

I'm not going to criticize the Dodgers for trading Josh Bell. Who knows? Maybe Casey Blake will live forever.

What I will do is send up a big hip-hip-hooray for the Orioles, because the single best thing any rebuilding manager can do, ever, is trade a relief pitcher in late July for a couple of solid prospects.

Let me repeat for anyone not paying attention: a relief pitcher....

If I were an Orioles fan, I would be organizing a party right now.

Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times:

The Orioles won the deal by far, however. Yes, Sherrill is a very good left-handed reliever. However, he's already 32 and is about to get extremely expensive in his second year of arbitration. Also, did I mention his career high for innings pitched is 53.1? For that, the Dodgers gave up someone who is certain to anchor the Orioles' order in a few years and an intriguing arm....

The Orioles did very well here, while the Dodgers clearly overpaid...

Matt Pouliot of NBC Sports:

So much for the thought that the Orioles would have to be overwhelmed to move their closer...

(Josh) Bell isn't the problem...Johnson is the weak link here. The Orioles should have insisted on a better second prospect than the 21-year-old. It'd be very disturbing if they let the fact that his father, Dave, was a former Oriole influence their thinking here...

...I think the Dodgers did quite well here...

Keith Law of ESPN:

The main return for Baltimore is third baseman Josh Bell, who alone is probably worth more in asset value than a good but sub-Joe Nathan, 60-inning-a-year reliever with two years of control left. Bell is a strong, athletic switch-hitter with ridiculous bat speed from the left side -- so much that his bat might be in and out of the zone too quickly. He has improving power that probably is above-average to plus in the future. He's a little rough at third but projects to stay at the position, and he has the athleticism to be above-average there with more work....

The second player Baltimore acquired, right-hander Steve Johnson, has a solid to average fastball that will touch 92 with a fringe to average changeup and a below average to average breaking ball. But Johnson has a long arm action; he shows the ball to the center fielder, pronates his forearm and comes around with a "pie-thrower" action that really looks like it's costing him command. He's a local kid and the son of former Orioles pitcher and current Orioles broadcaster Dave Johnson, so there's some karmic value there, but he looks more like a good organizational pitcher than a prospect right now.

Drew Forrester of WNST:

They’ll survive without Sherrill, obviously. I wonder, though, did the O’s inquire about Cliff Lee before the Indians dealt him to the Phillies for a couple of decent prospects and some towels? Was there ever a consideration to approach the A’s about Matt Holliday and use him as a DH and 4th outfielder?...

Selling off good players is what the Pirates do. And we all know they stink....

I wanted to be a seller by jettisoning the scrubs, not the good players.

Good teams acquire good players at the deadline.

Bad teams trade good players at the deadline.


R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs.com:

In Bell, the Orioles receive a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman with impressive power potential. His ISO in Double-A this season is .203, but there are some questions as to whether he’s going to stick at third for the long haul or move to a corner – either first or left/right field. Bell has had issues with strikeouts in the past which reached their apex in 2008. His walk rate has grown impressive and his strikeout numbers are down for this year, so he’s definitely an interesting player to watch for in the next few years....

The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for a two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent.


Frostking of Camden Crazies:

I have mild concerns about Bell sticking at third long-term, but if he keeps hitting this well then there’s a possibility that he’ll begin 2010 as the Orioles starting third-baseman. Johnson is pretty good as a throw-in and might develop into an interesting arm. I don’t immediately love the deal, but I sure like it and it was the right thing to do. There will be talk about who takes over as closer, but given the team’s record I don’t think that really matters right now - a lot of fans (this one included) will certainly miss seeing Flat Breezy coming out from the pen though. Not a steal (the O’s come out maybe $1-3 M ahead), but Andy MacPhail once again moves the team closer to contention.


neal s at The Loss Column:

I think we’ll see Bell here either in late 2010 or 2011 at the latest — and he’ll be here as a third baseman. You can book that.

Johnson’s harder to project, but if he keeps doing what he’s doing I can see him making a bid as a back-rotation guy in maybe 2011 or 2012.

On paper this looks like another MacPhail winner. I’ll miss Sherrill, but I’ll also wish him the best out in LA. It’ll be nice to watch him pitch in October.

Cliff Corcoran from SI.com:

The reason the Orioles should be clicking their heels over this deal, and Dodgers fans should hot under the collar, is Josh Bell. He's not true blue-chipper, but as a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman who was hitting .296/.386/.497 in Double-A this season, he has a high ceiling and fills a big hole in their organization. Bell's defense at the hot corner could use some work, but he's already shown an ability to improve in the field.

On the chat rooms, comment sections and Twitter, the casual fan base is split between hating the deal and loving the deal. That's understandable since Sherrill has become a fan favorite in Baltimore but I love the move. It made the team younger and addressed an organizational need.

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The Baltimore Orioles are 14-24 against the AL East. But they are 30-33 against the rest of the league. We're getting close guys/ As bad as the pitching has been, we are nearly a .500 team outside of the AL East.

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Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts thinks the Orioles are close to competing in the AL East:

Given their youth, Baltimore might consider tacking on a free agent to the rotation. They will also have to cobble together a bullpen. But as it stands right now this Orioles starting staff looks like it will be able to post a season's worth of above average pitching in 2010 and quite a bit better than that in 2011 and out. When you combine this with their offensive nucleus, the Orioles appear positioned to make the moves necessary to put a contender on the field.

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Bergey's on the DL!

What good is having Matt Wieters on the team is he can't heal the sick and make the lame pitch again?

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Speaking of Wieters, his 40 games in the wilderness is over. Time for the miracles. Wieters has hit .271/.320/.392 but has hit .423/.444/.462 in the last 7 games so he's stepping it up for August.

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Cal Ripken Jr. will be building more youth ball parks in Baltimore and one will be something special:

The former Orioles great plans to build five youth ballparks - including one at the site of the former Memorial Stadium.

Ripken's plan is to turn the little-used field at the stadium site into a multipurpose, artificial turf sports complex.

God bless Cal Ripken. Baseball at the Memorial Stadium site will continue.

George Sherrill Gone! Off to LA For 2 Prospects!

Geroge Sherrill, Oriole closer and wearer of the flat-brim is gone to the Dodgers for a couple minor league prospects. How long until we see "Sherrill-wood" signs at Chavez Ravine? Hard to believe that a flamboyant personality like Sherrill will not be embraced in L.A. Georgey being Georgey.

Anyway, here's the haul:

3B Josh Bell

Bell is 22-years-old and played for the AA Chattanooga Lookouts until today. He has posted a .296/.386/.497 line in 94 games. 50 walks, 70 strikeouts and 11 homeruns.

If his glove is good enough to stick at 3B, he appears to be the heir apparent to Melvin Mora and is at least the equal of Brandon Snyder as a corner infield prospect.

SP Steven Johnson

21-year-old RHP (and Baltimore native and son of former Oriole hurler Dave Johnson) who has gone 9-5 with a 3.61 ERA between high A and AA in 2009. 117 strikeouts, 45 walks and 15 homers surrendered in 107.1 innings.

Not listed among the Dodgers' top prospects but a guy who can strikeout batters like that would at least project as a nice relief prospect.



I like the trade. They moved Sherrill, whose value will never be higher, got a legitimate 3B prospect (who may not be far from the big leagues) and another live arm for the farm system.

All that for a guy who was basically a throw-in in the Erik Bedard trade.

Around the Orioles Blogsophere - 5/5/09

...but first a quick stop off at Rob Neyer's blog on ESPN.com who make a solid point about patience and the case of Felix Pie:

How many more chances do you give him? I don't know, exactly. What I do know is that in Brady Anderson's first three seasons, his line was .216/.305/.301 in nearly a thousand plate appearances. He was awful in his fourth season, too. And he was significantly older than Pie, without the Triple-A credentials...But the Orioles didn't give up on Brady Anderson when he was 27, and they shouldn't give up on Felix Pie when he's 24. Especially not in a vain pursuit of fourth place.

Correct. Unless there's something going on behind the scenes, you stick with Pie until at least mid-season.

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Along those same lines, Frost King looks back at the month of April and makes some discoveries about Felix Pie and Lou Montanez:

Pie's defense hasn't been as advertised yet (it's only been about average in LF) but his bat hasn't been as bad as it's looked. A .194 BABIP despite a 23% line-drive rate will definitely not continue, and his increased walk rate (from 7.8% to 10.5%) and decreased strike-out rate (from 34.9% to 27.5%) are both good signs. He needs to be given plenty of at bats to work through this....

Maybe Luis shouldn't have talked so much about being over-looked for a spot on the team. Pie has shown the better underlying stats, and has the higher ceiling...

Go to the blog to see more supporting numbers but, again, he's right. Common wisdom is to dump Pie or give him a reduced role. He's performed a bit better than the basic numbers show.

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While not necessarily referring to Felix Pie, Ben at Oriole Central is urging fans with short memories to be patient:

I understand (and want) the O's to win now like everyone else. What I don't understand is the irrationality and impatience like Rick Maese advocates to call up every prospect now to Baltimore and throw them to wolves.This is the exact flawed logic that has screwed up pretty much every viable Oriole prospect for the past decade, Nick Markakis not withstanding. Garrett Olson, Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn, Daniel Cabrera, Radhames Liz, and every other pitching prospect including Erik Bedard (took him awhile didn't it) are examples how this get them up NOW to give us something is a horrible route to take. I don't like seeing Adam Eaton in the rotation either, but I'd rather bite the bullet on what's going to be another lost season and let Chris Tillman work on his control in the minors where he belongs.

He is correct! (I feel like John McLaughlin...)

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Jay Trucker recaps last night's win and looks forward to tonight's matchup:

The Orioles conclude their series against Tampa with an inexplicable 4:08 pm game. They are putting steel-ribbed Koji Uehara on the mound to face the Rays' Matt Garza.

Which gave me an endorsement idea for Koji...he could play the Jimmy Rollins role.




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Roar from 34 gets creative with an Oriole advice column...

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Wayward O also makes a good point about a managing gaffe is last night's win...

and yet Wayward O must this rainy tuesday morning chide manager for not inserting pinch runner for ZAUN when ZAUN hit double in eighth inning...let's say b-rob singles to right instead of going big fly. if pie is pinch running from 2nd there is a 84.57% chance he scores. as the game stood, there was a 13.87% chance of ZAUN scoring in same scenario.

Wayward O is not statistician but single to right scenario is far more likely there than home run.

In retrospect, it was a very odd (non)move...

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Patrick Smith of Bugs and Cranks looks at George Sherrill's closing duties and makes a fantastic Glengarry Glen Ross reference in the process.

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Speaking of Sherrill, Weaver's Tantrum runs down the options in case he is permanently unseated as the Oriole closer.

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Finally, the Toy Department blog at BaltimoreSun.com has a fine article catching up with former Oriole catcher Gus Triandos. Their "Catching Up..." series is riveting stuff to the diehard Oriole fan.

Terry Crowley and Oriole DH's Over The Years

Enchanting Sunshine made a comment on one of my previous posts about Aubrey Huff and how he's having one of the better seasons ever for an Oriole DH. "Where was Terry Crowley?", she wondered.

I only included players that qualified for the batting title. Crowley never did. So I changed the criteria to include Crowley in the assessment. Here it is:

             Year  OPS+
T. Crowley   1979  154
H. Baines    1999  150
H. Baines    1995  142
H. Baines    1993  137
A. Huff      2008  136
K. Singleton 1981  135
J. Dwyer     1987  131
K. Singleton 1983  131
S. Horn      1991  130
T. Crowley   1980  130
 

Crowley only played in 61 games in 1979 but he made the most of his at bats. He was perhaps more impressive in 1980 when he playe din 92 games, still hitting at a high level.

Look, it's Sam Horn! You think Weaver would've loved having Horn on his bench? Horn could've been the Terry Crowley of the 90's.

Huff has fallen off the pace a bit since last week but still finishes in the top 5 of all-time.

E.S. also wondered about Huff coming through for the team this year. Luke Scott has a lot of big hits but who's had the biggest hits for the club this year?

Total WPA leaders for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles:

           WPA
Huff       1.87
Roberts    1.40
Mora       1.35
Markakis   1.00
Scott      0.56
 

Surprised to see Luke Scott so low? I sure was.

Huff has loomed large overall (he has been uncharacteristically consistent all year) but Melvin Mora at number 3? Has the Melmosity been peaking and I haven't noticed?

(BTW, from 1979-1981, Crowley had 78, 266 and 166 plate appearances respectively. He posted WPAs of 1.19, 2.00 and 1.50 respectively. Crazy numbers for a guy who played so little. Per at bat, he may be the clutchiest player in Oriole history.)

The biggest hits of the year by measure of WPA:

10 - Adam Jones - 6/29 - .351 WPA

Down by a run in the top of the 12th, The Truth singles home Markakis to tie up the Nats.

9 - Ramon Hernandez - 6/14 - .388 WPA

Two outs in the bottom of the 9th, Hernandez singles home Freddie Bynum to tie up the Pirates.

8 - Ramon Hernandez - 4/12 - .405 WPA

Down to their last out, Hernandez gives the Orioles life by hitting a solo shot to tie the game against Houston.

7 - Luke Scott - 7/19 - .414 WPA

With one out in the bottom of the 10th, Scott homers to tie the game.

6 - Melvin Mora - 4/17 - .418

Two outs in the ninth and the score ties, Mora singles Roberts home off Bobby Jenks to win the game.

5 - Ramon Hernandez - 7/19 - .431

Walk-off homer against Joe Zumaya to defeat the Tigers.

4 - Brian Roberts - 6/15 - .489

Walk-off homer against Matt Capps to defeat the Pirates.

3 - Melvin Mora - 6/17 - .556

Down 5-6 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 out, Mora doubles to center scoring Adam Jones and Brian Roberts.

2 - Aubrey Huff - 5/27 - .611

Down 7-6 in the bottom of the 8th to the Rays, Huff doubles in Kevin Millar and Mora to give the O's the lead.

1 - Aubrey Huff - 4/2 - .617

In the bottom of the 11th, Huff doubles to the wall off of Yankee reliever (and Oriole badmouther) LaTroy Hawkins. Mora comes all the way from 1st to score the winning run.

Who would have thought that Huff had the two biggest hits all season? Not I. Luke Scott only shows up once. Ramon Hernandez shows up three time lending creedence to my belief that he is having a better season than the boxscore shows. (Not that it matters much. Matt Wieters approaches.) Mora on both lists may indicate that he is having a better year than I thought as well. More to dwell on later...

E.S. also said, "I guess that's why it's better to not rely on perceptions." Well, not necessarily!

Earlier in the year, George Sherrill was being compared by many to Don Stanhouse (especially by E.S.) so I took a look at where Sherrill ranked among other "nailbiter" closers in Oriole history. At the time, he did not make the Top Ten based on my criteria. Now he is in a statistical dead heat with Stanhouse's 1978 season in terms of WHIP. That puts him as the #5 nailbitingest closer in Oriole history.

Sometimes perception is correct regardless of what the numbers say!

But eventually, the numbers tend to catch up.

Base Hits: 7/14/2008

Finally, I am back in town. I will be home through the rest of the regular season, so I hope to get back to posting more regularly.

If the Orioles were going to start losing in miserable and painful ways, at least I was in southwest Florida where:

A) I didn't have any time (or access) to watch the games and

B) Beaches, fresh seafood and a general laid back atmosphere made me not care as much.

The bright side to this recent losing streak is that now The Warehouse can look to unload some of these veterans without much objection from Peter Angleos and/or the fans. There is (at the moment) no winning team to break up!

This is not to say that this team as currently constructed could not be a winning team. The Baseball Gods giveth and they taketh away. Baltimore has won a lot of close games this season and the pendulum does seem to swinging the other way at this point. But .500 should not be the ultimate goal here. The eye still needs to be toward the future with this team.

Who gets traded?

Aubrey Huff - Huff is having his best year since 2003 and given his tendency to hit better after the All-Star break, he may be on his way to a career year. His trade value has never been nor will ever be higher. Trade him. Ironically, Tampa Bay could use some offense and need a first baseman. Depending on David Ortiz's health, Boston could use him too. Let's get what we can.

Brian Roberts - I won't be upset if the O's keep Roberts but, again, the head says it's time to get maximum value. Trade him.

George Sherrill - Lots of contenders need relief help for playoff runs. Trade him now.

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Speaking of Sherrill, a few weeks ago I looked at "The Nailbiters", the Oriole closers who would strike fear into the hearts of the O's faithful when they took the mound. Back then, I determined that George was not even in the top ten. No longer. With a WHIP of 1.412, Sherrill now makes the list. Solidly. To paraphrase John Cusak in "High Fidelity", "Congratulations George. You're now #6 in my top Nailbiters of all time. With a bullet."

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O's blogger Desert O (aka Appalachian Trail thru-hiker "Vegas") has made it past the halfway point to Maine and is solidly into Pennsylvania. Way to go and good luck!

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After posting a .323/.349/.455 line in June, The Truth is hitting .341/.400/.545 in July.

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Even with their recent losing ways, the Orioles managed to elicit a good grimace from Clay Bucholz on Friday night:

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Yes, it's only 17 games but...

Matt Wieters. In Bowie, he's put up a .350/.426/.600 which is virtually identical to the .345/.448/.576 line he put up at Frederick. There has been no adjustment needed.

You never want to rush a prospect and in Baltimore's case there's really no need. But I expect we will now see Wieters in Baltimore on Opening Day 2009.

The First Taste

OK, so everybody knows what happened to the Birds on Sunday (and Monday. Eeeesh...) but it was interesting to watch that game through the eyes of a 6 year old. It was his first time watching an extra inning game.

We're watching the game. Dramatic comeback in the 12th. Two out and one on. 0-2 to Ronnie Belliard. The Orioles are going to win. Then Belliard put that hanging slider into the leftfield seats.

The conversation picks up there...

Kid: What happened? He hit a home run?

Me: Yep. He sure did.

Kid: So now what happens?

Me: It's over. The Nationals win.

Kid: But the Orioles were about to win.

Me: They were about to. Only one strike away. But now they lost.

Kid: But don't the Orioles get another chance to hit?

Me: Not in extra innings. Not when you're the visiting team.

Kid: But that's not fair!

Me: Baseball's not fair, son. These things happen. Maybe they'll win tomorrow.

(Belliard is met at home plate by bouncing, cheering teammates)

Kid: I don't like them. They're bad guys.

And so, the tiny seeds of rivalry are sown...

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The Win Probability graphs from those two heartbreakers, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Do you know what the odds are of coming that close to winning and then blowing the game two nights in a row? My college statistics skills are a little rusty but the rough calculation is something like 1 in 3.4 gazillion! Damn you, Baseball Gods!

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Alex Cintron is on the DL and Freddie Bynum is back with the big club.

I have always been a fan of Cintron, even back to his early days with Arizona. Even though the production was not always there, I just love that guy as a player.

It's the same thing with Freddie Bynum. I'm just glad he's back. Somehow, I think he makes the team better.

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Adam Jones vs. Nick Markakis (rookie years)

          Jones' Batting   Markakis' Batting
April     .263/.311/.389    .182/.270/.288
May       .226/.273/.312    .254/.329/.338
June      .323/.349/.455    .338/.403/.400
 

It's encouraging progress.

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I'm very curious to see how Adam Loewen performs out of the bullpen. More to come...

O's Keep Surprising

Ronny Cedeno's face says it all...

The Orioles continue to shock the world.

Last night was such a feel-good game I had to write something this morning. Nick Markakis flashing the leather. Four double plays turned. Two triples (Luke Scott and Brian Roberts). Sherrill striking out the side to get the save. Jeremy Guthrie getting a rare but well-deserved win. Good stuff.

What you have to love about this team is that they compete. They go on the road to face the best team in the National League and just handle them.

This team is 15-11 since being "mired" in last place on Memorial Day.

After the O's leave Wrigley, the play the Nationals, Royals, Rangers and Toronto in succession. Keeping their heads above .500 looks pretty good for the foreseeable future.

Burres vs Lilly tonight. Give Jay Payton a start!

Let's go O's!

The Nailbiters

The Orioles have a one run lead in the 9th inning. The call to the bullpen sets your stomach to churning. Yeah, he's the closer. He's the best reliever on the team, in theory. But you don't feel good about him. He's about to take you on an eight minute emotional rollercoaster as Baltimore tries to hang on for the win...

You know that feeling. The Baltimore Orioles have had closers that come in and get the job done but they make you sweat while doing it. Current closer George Sherrill has this effect on the fans and has elicited comparisons to 70's closer Don Stanhouse with his ability to keep you on the edge of your seat. So where does he rank in Oriole history? I decided to find out.

These "nailbiter" closers couldn't be bums. They had to have a fair level of competence to qualify. I put the cap at 20 saves and ranked them by the number of base runners they allowed on average, Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP). Here's the top ten:

10. Armando Benitez - 1998 - 22 SV, 5-6, 1.273 WHIP

In his last year in Baltimore, Benitez saved 22 games for a losing team but 10 home runs in 68 innings says it all. No lead was truly safe. Just to make it interesting, he hit 4 batters too.

9. Tim Stoddard - 1980 - 26 SV, 5-3, 1.279 WHIP

In his only year as the primary "fireman", Stoddard allowed 72 hits in 86 innings but kept the ball in the yard and posted an impressive 2.35 ERA for a team that won 100 games.

8. Stu Miller - 1963 - 27 SV, 5-8, 1.300 WHIP

Miller saved exactly 100 games during his Oriole career but during his first year his appearances were a real adventure. In 112.1 innings pitched he walked 58 and gave up 93 hits but his 114 strikeouts got him out of most of the jams unscathed.

7. Don Stanhouse - 1979 - 21 SV, 7-3, 1.376 WHIP

If not the king of the nailbiters, he was certainly the crown prince. The most maddening thing about Stanhouse was not the hits but the walks. 51 in 72.2 IP.

6. Gregg Olson - 1991 - 31 SV, 4-6, 1.398 WHIP

Olson is the one I remember most vividly. It seemed like he had to put a man on base before he was comfortable. Again, that sweeping curve ball garnered 72 Ks in 74 IP getting him out of many jams.

5. Jorge Julio - 2004 - 22 SV, 2-5, 1.420 WHIP

The name makes my blood run cold. 11 HR in 69 innings. More on him later.

4. Don Stanhouse - 1978 - 24 SV, 6-9, 1.500 WHIP

Again, 52 walks in 74.2 IP. But he induced 9 double plays and managed a 2.89 ERA.

3. Randy Myers - 1996 - 31 SV, 4-4, 1.517 WHIP

Honestly, I don't remember feeling anxious when Myers came in to close the game. Maybe because 1996 is completely overshadowed by Myers' dominant 1997 performance. But here he is. 60 hits in 58.2 IP including 7 home runs.

2. Doug Jones - 1995 - 22 SV, 0-4, 1.521 WHIP

The Orioles picked him up off the scrapheap and a year later, they put him back. 55 hits in 47 innings pitched and 6 homers. 5.01 ERA. Bad juju.

1. Jorge Julio - 2003 - 36 SV, 0-7, 1.524 WHIP

Over the course of 2003 and 2004, Julio pitched 130.2 innings and gave up 21 home runs! Aaarrgh!!! Sorry, I flashed back for a second.

So where's George Sherrill? As it turns out, Sherrill has posted a 1.125 WHIP thus far. That puts him only behind Tippy Martinez (1983), Chris Ray (2006) and Stu Miller (1965). Doesn't seem that way but so far Sherrill's been as lights out as any closer in Orioles history.

Now The National Media Begins to Weigh In...

Been following this all morning, like most of you I'm sure. From ESPN we now know:

That Mariners spokesman Tim Hevly confirmed the team had requested that Adam Jones return from Venezuela (The Seattle Times had reported that earlier this morning...)

That RP George Sherrill and Adam Jones have both told teammates that they are scheduled to take physicals in preparation for a trade.

Andy MacPhail's last word on this was that there is no deal in place. Semantics? It sure looks like this is something that will get done and soon.

All this intrigue is accomplishing two things:

Raising my anxiety and helping me learn to spell Venezuela correctly.