The Nailbiters

The Orioles have a one run lead in the 9th inning. The call to the bullpen sets your stomach to churning. Yeah, he's the closer. He's the best reliever on the team, in theory. But you don't feel good about him. He's about to take you on an eight minute emotional rollercoaster as Baltimore tries to hang on for the win...

You know that feeling. The Baltimore Orioles have had closers that come in and get the job done but they make you sweat while doing it. Current closer George Sherrill has this effect on the fans and has elicited comparisons to 70's closer Don Stanhouse with his ability to keep you on the edge of your seat. So where does he rank in Oriole history? I decided to find out.

These "nailbiter" closers couldn't be bums. They had to have a fair level of competence to qualify. I put the cap at 20 saves and ranked them by the number of base runners they allowed on average, Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP). Here's the top ten:

10. Armando Benitez - 1998 - 22 SV, 5-6, 1.273 WHIP

In his last year in Baltimore, Benitez saved 22 games for a losing team but 10 home runs in 68 innings says it all. No lead was truly safe. Just to make it interesting, he hit 4 batters too.

9. Tim Stoddard - 1980 - 26 SV, 5-3, 1.279 WHIP

In his only year as the primary "fireman", Stoddard allowed 72 hits in 86 innings but kept the ball in the yard and posted an impressive 2.35 ERA for a team that won 100 games.

8. Stu Miller - 1963 - 27 SV, 5-8, 1.300 WHIP

Miller saved exactly 100 games during his Oriole career but during his first year his appearances were a real adventure. In 112.1 innings pitched he walked 58 and gave up 93 hits but his 114 strikeouts got him out of most of the jams unscathed.

7. Don Stanhouse - 1979 - 21 SV, 7-3, 1.376 WHIP

If not the king of the nailbiters, he was certainly the crown prince. The most maddening thing about Stanhouse was not the hits but the walks. 51 in 72.2 IP.

6. Gregg Olson - 1991 - 31 SV, 4-6, 1.398 WHIP

Olson is the one I remember most vividly. It seemed like he had to put a man on base before he was comfortable. Again, that sweeping curve ball garnered 72 Ks in 74 IP getting him out of many jams.

5. Jorge Julio - 2004 - 22 SV, 2-5, 1.420 WHIP

The name makes my blood run cold. 11 HR in 69 innings. More on him later.

4. Don Stanhouse - 1978 - 24 SV, 6-9, 1.500 WHIP

Again, 52 walks in 74.2 IP. But he induced 9 double plays and managed a 2.89 ERA.

3. Randy Myers - 1996 - 31 SV, 4-4, 1.517 WHIP

Honestly, I don't remember feeling anxious when Myers came in to close the game. Maybe because 1996 is completely overshadowed by Myers' dominant 1997 performance. But here he is. 60 hits in 58.2 IP including 7 home runs.

2. Doug Jones - 1995 - 22 SV, 0-4, 1.521 WHIP

The Orioles picked him up off the scrapheap and a year later, they put him back. 55 hits in 47 innings pitched and 6 homers. 5.01 ERA. Bad juju.

1. Jorge Julio - 2003 - 36 SV, 0-7, 1.524 WHIP

Over the course of 2003 and 2004, Julio pitched 130.2 innings and gave up 21 home runs! Aaarrgh!!! Sorry, I flashed back for a second.

So where's George Sherrill? As it turns out, Sherrill has posted a 1.125 WHIP thus far. That puts him only behind Tippy Martinez (1983), Chris Ray (2006) and Stu Miller (1965). Doesn't seem that way but so far Sherrill's been as lights out as any closer in Orioles history.

Mark Teixeira: He's Not Coming and We Don't Want Him

The relative success of the 2008 season has some Oriole fans starting to talk about the possibility of the Orioles signing Mark Teixeira in the offseason again. I have detailed before why he's not coming but I don't think I've gone into why we Oriole fans shouldn't want him here.

First, you have to understand that he will be commanding a salary somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million a year. If Andruw Jones can command $18 million per year, Teixeira can command more than that without blinking an eye.

So what are you buying for your money? Presumably, a team is going to pay a premium for Teixeira to get a bonafide slugging first baseman.

Fine. Texieira may be that man. But since the year he hit 43 home runs for Texas, his home run numbers have been in decline. Since 2005, he has hit 43, 33 and 30. He is on a pace to hit just 24 this year. And during his best years for Texas, his home/road splits were quite dramatic.

          Home OPS     Road OPS
2004          .967        .893
2005         1.109        .809

His Isolated Power (ISO) has been in steady decline too. Since 2004:

        ISO
2004    .279
2005    .274
2006    .232
2007    .257
2008    .175

The ISO for 2007 would look even worse if not for the red-hot August and September Teixeira had once he got to Atlanta. He posted ISOs of .325 and .268 respectively.

That success has not carried into this year. .276 AVG, 10 HR, slugging .448. Not the numbers of premier major league slugger. But he will be expecting to be paid like a premier major league slugger.

I think Mark Texieira is a good hitter. He will probably be a good component for a team that is already good. If I thought the O's were one hitter away from contending, maybe my opinion would be different. But the Orioles are not just one hitter away. And he's not going to be the man. He's not going to be a dominant hitter. And he's certainly not a good bet to be that kind of hitter over the course of a 7-year/$140 million contract.

Base Hits: 6/11/2008

Steve Trachsel, for all intents and purposes, is gone. Trachsel was a placeholder until the youngsters were ready to take over so the bright side of all this is that The Warehouse must believe that there are enough arms in the system ready to take his place.

Trachsel had two very solid starts to begin the season but imploded immediately after and hasn't been effective since.

Later Steve. Thanks for netting us Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry from the Cubs (both of whom will still be good players for Baltimore, eventually.)

*****

As I type, Jim Palmer is having a chat on ESPN.com.

*****

Batters against Brian Burres:

1st PA in G: .787 OPS, 2nd PA in G: .794 OPS, 3rd PA in G: .834

Not to harp on this but send Brian Burres to the bullpen please. I like the guy but not as a starter. Time for Matt Albers to get a shot.

*****

Brian Roberts is quietly putting together a fantastic season. He's the best second baseman in the AL and arguably the best leadoff hitter in the major leagues. He makes Dustin Pedroia look like a punk. He is still going to bring back a nice haul at the trade deadline.

*****

I find this next item very sad. Jay Gibbons is begging for work. This is the letter he has written and submitted to every Major League club:


Writing this letter is both painful and humiliating.

I am young, healthy and determined. I have acknowledged and apologized for the mistake that I made and writing this letter should be proof enough that I have indeed suffered for my mistake.

I have faith and hope that some team will give me the chance to prove that I can not only be a productive player but also be a stellar member of their organization.

My faith in a second chance has inspired me to work harder than I have at any time in my life.

All I need is a chance -- any chance -- anywhere. I am more than willing to begin the process of proving that I can and will be a productive major league player by playing in the minor leagues.

At 31 years old, I have NO DOUBT that my best baseball is ahead of me.

I know that my agents at ACES have tried to land me an opportunity in the minor leagues but have been met with negative responses by each and every Organization.

I am not blind to the fact that I have made a mistake and that mistake has raised doubt about my character and ability. It is important that you know that my indiscretions, while regretful, were made in an effort to heal a nagging wrist injury.

I respectfully and humbly request that you grant me the chance to play for your organization.

I am so willing to prove myself as a player, and a person, that I will donate ALL of my minor league earnings to your Club's charity. In the event that I earn the right to play at the major league level, I will gladly donate a significant sum to that same charity.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sincerely,
Jay Gibbons

The guy is offering to work FOR FREE! I wish Jay the best of luck with his efforts to continue his career. He may really be done but you'd think some team would take a flier on him. When you look at some of the human flotsam on AAA rosters, Gibbons compares quite favorably.

I can't believe I'm saying this but I wouldn't even mind seeing him in Norfolk.

Good luck Jay. You were always a good guy in my eyes.

*****

By the way, the Orioles need to go 30-69 to reach the foregone conclusion of 100 losses. Stick it PECOTA!

The Continuing Transformation of Daniel Cabrera

Daniel Cabrera continues his remarkable season. Even if you don't find his results remarkable, it is certainly a remarkable season with respect to how he is reinventing himself. With the help of Fangraphs.com, I'm going to take a look what's different and where these changes will lead. The blue lines represent league averages, the green lines are Cabrera's performances.

First, his K/9 rate and his BB/9 rate:

The important thing you will notice on these graphs are the three year trends. Cabrera's K rate has dropped from more than 9 per 9 innings to just under 5 per 9 this year. For most pitchers this would be a really bad sign but Cabrera's notoriously high walk rate has also dropped precipitously from off-the-charts bad (literally) to right around league average. Ironically, his K/BB ratio is about the same as it ever was.


So Cabrera gave up some K's for improved control. And that has led to fewer men on base:




But fewer K's mean more balls in play. What's happening with all that extra contact? Well, some of that contact is putting balls over the fence:



This is what concerns me the most about the new Daniel Cabrera. He was always excellent at keeping the ball in the park but that home run rate has spiked. It's not as bad as I thought though. Even with the spike, he's right around league average and as long as that WHIP stays down, he should be OK.

But this is the graph that reflects the real value of the "new and improved" Daniel Cabrera:




Note the three-year rise in Ground Ball Percentage from Cabrera and the corresponding three year drop in Line Drive and Fly Ball Percentage. This is the most telling trend and will be the most valuable component to Cabrera's continued success.

Daniel Cabrera has:


1) Sacrificed strikeouts for better control of his pitches.
2) Pitched to contact more and challenged batters to put the ball in play.
3) Has transformed himself from a struggling strikeout king to a groundball inducing innings eater.


The projections for Cabrera once he finally "got it" always pointed towards a Randy Johnson-type development; power pitcher, lots of strikeouts, periods of sheer dominance of opposing hitters. But dramatically and unexpectedly, he has morphed into a pitcher whose projection looks a lot more like Andy Pettite; moderate strikeouts, lots of groundballs, keeping down the walks! Now how many people would have guessed you could have described Daniel Cabrera as a guy who could keep the walk rates low.

Does this mean Cabrera will become a righthanded version of Andy Pettite? No. The low strikeout rate and the homers given up will prevent him from being a star caliber pitcher. But when you see him in the rotation behind Jeremy Guthrie, Garrett Olson and Matt Albers/Radhames Liz over the next two years? A guy with legitimate number two starter talent in the 3rd or 4th spot in your rotation? That's very valuable.

And last season nobody thought that would be possible.

Armando!

God, I LOVE Armando Benitez!

See how Armando snatches defeat from the jaws of victory? Brilliant!

Adam "The Truth" Jones is quickly becoming the most clutch hitter on the team.

Base Hits: 6/6/2008

Lots going on in Birdland this week.


The O's drafted LHP Brian Matusz yesterday. I was hoping for a position player but when high school SS Tim Beckham and Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez went off the board, I was OK with South Carolina 1B Eric Smoak or the best pitcher available. Matusz was, by most accounts, the best pitcher available.

According to Keith Law (whose opinion I've come to respect):

If we set aside the relievers, Brian Matusz (taken by Baltimore with the No. 4 pick) stands out as a player who could -- and should -- move quickly. If he goes to A-ball or even Double-A, he could miss bats left and right with his off-speed stuff and never have to work on improving his fastball command. He might not be challenged at all until he reaches the big leagues, which is a strong argument for getting him to the majors sooner rather than later, especially when you consider the general fragility of pitchers' arms.

Nothing wrong with that. Hopefully we see Matusz in Baltimore in 2009.

It was nice to see that the next four picks were spent on position players.

*****

Screech is back! O's claimed him off waivers from Oakland and sent him to Norfolk. The Orioles can't have enough position player depth in their system.

Also, Luis Hernandez is gone. Maybe he'll be able to develop into a serviceable utility player. Both he and Brandon Fahey failed to capitalize on golden opportunities to become big league regulars this year, with their bats and their gloves. Here's hoping Freddie Bynum or Alex Cintron seizes that opportunity.

*****

The Orioles plans to renovate the Spring Training facility in Ft. Lauderdale have hit a snag. Vero Beach beckons...

I sound like a broken record but I'm hoping the Orioles take over the former Dodgertown.

*****

Adam Loewen will pitch out of the bullpen when he comes off the DL. That's a good idea. the rotation has pitched well so far and Loewen just may not be up to being a starter at this point in his career. A season or two in the 'pen might be just what the doctor ordered.

*****

I updated the Oriole Trade Trackers. By measure of Win Shares, the Tejada and Bedard trades are looking like real fleecings in Baltimore's favor...even this year.

Orioles Draft LHP Brian Matusz

Andy MacPhail has gone and acquired more pitching for the Oriole farm system.

The Orioles drafted LHP Brian Matusz from the University of San Diego. He's one of the few potential Oriole draft picks that I have not seen play at all.

Meet Brian Matusz:



Some more from the big lefty:



He's 6'5" and throws in the mid-90's. You certainly can't have enough lefthanded heat in your system.

He is very polished and thought to be able to move quickly through the system. Hopefully, they can get him signed quickly and get him his first taste of professional ball.

Base Hits: 5/30/2008

Red Sox come to town tonight! Oriole record at Camden Yards: 16-8 Red Sox record away from Fenway: 11-19. So you're tellin' me there's a chance... I'm going out on a limb here and saying that the starting pitching matchups actually favor the Orioles. We'll see if that turns out to be the case...

*****

I kept meaning to get over to Camden Depot and check out what they had to offer so I finally did. What Crawdaddy and stotle are writing over there is excellent. It's so good they make me want to quit blogging! Just for example, check out their continuing coverage of the upcoming amateur baseball draft from the Oriole's perspective. They are good men. And thorough.

*****

A portion of I-395 will now be known as "Ripken Way". There's an obvious joke here somewhere about "The Ripken Way" but I'll be damned if I can think of one...

*****

A post over at Firebrand of the American League (Red Sox blog) that discusses Boston's woes on the road but throws in this little jab: The Red Sox have a chance this weekend against a floundering Baltimore Orioles team to make a statement and move that road record three games closer to .500. Floundering? The O's are 7-7 over the last two weeks. We just won a series! More than the Red Sox can say. Granted, Baltimore is 2-4 over their last 6 but the Red Sox are 1-5! And we're floundering? OK, OK, I have a statement... The Orioles have a chance this weekend against the uber-floundering Boston Red Sox to move that home record 4 more games over .500. (That dude even got the number of games in this series wrong...) And when I say floundering, I mean really floundering. They make actual flounders appear to walk upright by comparison.

*****

For the Song of the Week, I was going to go really country this week but I stumbled across another band from Austin, TX that is clearly not country at all. This is Ghostland Observatory with "Sad Sad City" GO O's! BEAT THEM SOX!

Nestor Is At It Again...

The Orioles had a five game losing streak! Leap from the bandwagon, Nestor!


Orioles go from penthouse to outhouse



How original. How droll. The wit is simply amazing here. Who but a professional sportswriter would think to juxtapose "penthouse" with "outhouse"? That's where that journalism degree comes in folks. Pure genius.


Don’t look now, but the Orioles have gone from an “interesting” spring team with some exciting evenings to quickly becoming a team on a fast course to nowhere.

Let's assume that the Orioles were "falling back to Earth" as Nestor imagines. Is that a path to nowhere? Didn't we assume that rebuilding is good and that it would come with its share of growing pains? Should a few losses change that outlook?

That is, if they can't find a way to start hitting the baseball.This morning, they wake up on a 80-degree Memorial Day again mired in last place of the AL East in the midst of a five-game losing streak....And here come New York and Boston to attempt to kick them while they’re down…



Mired. An interesting choice of language there.



Mired - entangled, entrapped or hindered as if in mire



On the morning this post appeared the Orioles were "mired" in last place...in a division where being one game under .500 will land you in last place. They were a full 5.5 games out of first! How will the Orioles ever get above .500 again?!?! Oh yeah, win a couple of games. We are de-mired.



Before the inevitable (and foolish) "Nestor hates the Orioles" comments start flooding this blog,



Gee, why would anyone think that?



Right now, with seven games coming against the Red Sox and Yankees at home – where their talent will be overwhelmed every day – it’s not looking so good...



Look, outside of the fact that we don't have a true "ace" on this staff, I'll put our pitching staff up against anybody in the AL East save for Toronto. And pitching has been the great equalizer this season. Unless the pitching fails us, we will never be overmatched for a series.



The real problem is very clear to anyone who watches the team on a daily basis: the offense is atrocious and there are very few signs of it improving dramatically any time soon.

Yes, the offense is not good. But no signs of improving? Anyone who watches the game would see signs that the team is hitting the ball hard and catching some bad breaks. Or you could look here. Or here.

This is and will probably remain a poor offensive team, and any hopes that both Luke Scott and Adam Jones would be the next coming of last year’s Nick Markakis are starting to dissipate.



Nick Markakis hit .300 with 23 home runs last year. Nobody thought Scott or Jones were going to do that this year. Nobody Nestor. N-O-B-O-D-Y.



And just so we're clear here, on May 31st, 2006, (Markakis' first year in the majors) his batting line was .219/.301/.314. The Truth is batting .253/.303/.368 with almost triple the number of extra base hits (14) than Nick had (5). And Jones still has 3 games to go this month!



Sure, you’d like to think that Brian Roberts isn’t going to hit .263 this season.



He's not.



Or that Nick Markakis is better than his current .247.



He is.



But the rest of the roster – including a rapidly aging Melvin Mora and a “just glad to be here” Kevin Millar – are what they are: mediocre major league players. And don’t get me started on Aubrey Huff, who’ll make his $8 million this year while hitting his usual .250 with 20 homers.The situational (and specifically late-inning) hitting was superb during the early-season stretches where they won cardiac ballgames in the late innings. And those were on the nights when the starting pitching was outstanding and the bullpen was even better than that.



No argument with the bats in this lineup, although I would quibble about Millar being mediocre. he is better than league average. And Mora can pick 'em over at third.



Daniel Cabrera is 5-1. I have no reason to believe he’ll be 10-2 and 15-3 before it’s all over with. I’m not convinced that we’ll see the same guy every five days once this team inevitably drops well below .500 and goes through the summer doldrums that teams that hit .240 will struggle with.



Two things here: win totals are a poor evaluation of a pitcher's performance (see Guthrie and Bedard last year, far better than their win totals) and batting average is a poor indicator (by itself) of offensive prowess.



First, the offense. The team OPS is .712, 7th among the 14 AL teams. And they are swinging the bats better than the results...but if you've read this blog you know where I'm going with this and I don't feel like proving it again. Trust me, the bats will improve.



And no, Daniel Cabrera would be hard pressed to win 15. I love the guy but he's giving up too many homers to win consistently.



But note that it is "inevitable" that the team sinks far beneath .500. Only a .240 batting average as proof.



It was fun while it lasted – and maybe they’ll go 7-0 this week against the big boys and resurrect their flailing season– but it’s hard watching this team get four and five hits a game and struggle to manufacture runs, especially when Steve Trachsel takes the ball every five days and puts them in a major hole.

That's all folks! Take down the tents, the party is officially over - unless of course it's not over then feel free to stick around. Way to hedge your bets Nestor.

Steve Trachsel. One way or another, a temporary problem.

Maybe they can escape last place before the end of Memorial Day?
Or maybe I'll just want to vomit at the sea of Yankees fans I'll inevitably be forced to endure in my own ballpark for the tenth year running...



Confusing parting shot. A hint of optimism after all the downer talk. Then a reference to the Yankee fans taking over the stadium, 10 years of losing and bodily fluids being expelled. I guess some habits die harder than others for Nestor...

Examining Chris Hoiles and the 1993 AL MVP Voting

OK, I've been out of town for the holiday and haven't seen a lot of the Orioles lately. There's a whole lot to catch up on but let me just say this one thing:

Kevin Millar was safe! No extra innings were necessary!
Anyway....

I'm not here to talk about the present, I'm here to talk about the past. You see, I have three big obsessions involving the Orioles:

1. Jeffrey Maier in the 1996 ALCS
2. The amazing 1987 season of Larry Sheets (you have no idea how close I came to naming this blog "Holy Sheets!")
3. The snubbing of Chris Hoiles for MVP in 1993.

(I'll also grant you that three Oriole obsessions is really understating the case. There are certainly many, many more...I am writing a blog about a baseball team for Christ's sake.)

I'm here today to talk about Mr. Hoiles and give him his due.

Top Ten OPS+ Seasons By A Catcher Since 1900

               Year     OPS+



Mike Piazza    1997     185



Mike Piazza    1995     172



Mike Piazza    1996     166



Johnny Bench   1972     166



Mike Grady     1904     166



Chris Hoiles   1993     162



Carlton Fisk   1972     162



Ernie Lombardi 1942     161



Roy Campanella 1951     159



Gabby Hartnett 1937     158



 

So Hoiles' season ranks only behind three seasons from the greatest hitting catcher of all time (Piazza), another by the second greatest hitting catcher of all time and a fluky season from a journeyman catcher from the deadball era (Grady). Behind him are Fisk, Lombardi, Campanella and Hartnett; all Hall of Famers.

If fact outside of Grady and Hoiles himself, all of these catchers are or will be in the Hall of Fame.

Even more impressive, the top five OPS+ performances by a catcher in the 107 year history of the American League:

Name            OPS+     Year



Chris Hoiles    162      1993



Carlton Fisk    162      1972



Bill Dickey     158      1936



Mickey Cochrane 157      1933



Jorge Posada    154      2007









 

Again, Hoiles leads a list of current or future Hall of Famers.

OPS+ for all position players in the American League in 1993:

Name            OPS+



John Olerud     186



Frank Thomas    177



Ken Griffey     171



Juan Gonazalez  169



Chis Hoiles     162









 

Even though Hoiles had a fantastic year at the plate (.310/.416/.585, 29 HR) there were a lot of great performances in the AL that year. Olerud hit .363, Thomas slugged .617 and drove in 128, Griffey hit .309 with 45 homers and Gonazalez hit 46 with a .310 average. But only Griffey did it at a premium defensive position.

And this is not an argument that Chris Hoiles should have won the MVP. I know how MVP voting works. Your team typically has to make the playoffs or your performance has to stand out in a year where there is clearly no better option (i.e. Cal Ripken, Jr. in 1991 for the last place O's). But he deserved better than this:

                           1st           Max              Season Results



 Rk Name             Team Place Points Points Share   AB  H  HR   BA    OPS  SB  W-L   IP  ERA   WHIP  SO SV



+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+-----+---+--+-----+-----+---+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+



  1 Frank Thomas      CHW   28    392    392  1.00   549 174 41  .317 1.033   4                       



  2 Paul Molitor      TOR    0    209    392  0.53   636 211 22  .332  .911  22                       



  3 John Olerud       TOR    0    198    392  0.51   551 200 24  .363 1.072   0                       



  4 Juan Gonzalez     TEX    0    185    392  0.47   536 166 46  .310 1.000   4                       



  5 Ken Griffey       SEA    0    182    392  0.46   582 180 45  .309 1.025  17                       



  6 Roberto Alomar    TOR    0    102    392  0.26   589 192 17  .326  .900  55                       



  7 Albert Belle      CLE    0     81    392  0.21   594 172 38  .290  .922  23                       



  8 Rafael Palmeiro   TEX    0     52    392  0.13   597 176 37  .295  .925  22                       



  9 Jack McDowell     CHW    0     51    392  0.13                              22-10 257  3.37  1.29 158



 10 Carlos Baerga     CLE    0     50    392  0.13   624 200 21  .321  .841  15                       



 11 Jimmy Key         NYY    0     29    392  0.07                              18-6  237  3.00  1.11 173



 12 Joe Carter        TOR    0     25    392  0.06   603 153 33  .254  .801   8                       



 13 Jeff Montgomery   KCR    0     15    392  0.04                               7-5   87  2.27  1.01  66 45



 13 Mike Stanley      NYY    0     15    392  0.04   423 129 26  .305  .923   1                       



 15 Kenny Lofton      CLE    0     11    392  0.03   569 185  1  .325  .816  70                       



 16 Chris Hoiles      BAL    0     10    392  0.03   419 130 29  .310 1.001   1                       



 16 Tony Phillips     DET    0     10    392  0.03   566 177  7  .313  .841  16                      









 

Behind Kenny Lofton? Behind Mike Stanley? Mike Freakin Stanley? Jimmy Bleepin' Key?!?!?!

It gets even worse when you consider Win Shares. Hoiles leads all these guys with 6.8 Fielding Win Shares in 1993 on top of the great bat. It still doesn't make up the ground on guys like Thomas and Olerud but it certainly narrows the gap.

Hoiles arguably should've finished in the top 5 of MVP voting and certainly the top ten. As it turns out, he wouldn't even crack the top 15!

A performance worthy of baseball immortals but is largely forgotten, even in Baltimore, and was underappreciated even as it was happening 15 years ago.

Circles of Losing, Trends, Three True Outcomes, Melmosity and More

Last night will go down as a Circle 2 loss in Ben's 9 Concentric Circles of Losing: Not Enough To Win.

They had their opportunities. The Orioles had plenty of chances last night to win the game but couldn't get that extra hit, that long sac fly to score the man at third or that timely extra base hit to take the series from the Yankees.

On to Tampa. Tampa has greatly improved this season but not for the reasons people were predicting during the preseason. It was supposed to be the young offensive talent that was to carry this team to playoff contention. Instead, it's been the young pitching while the offense has still been trying to find itself. The good news for the Orioles is that the Rays pitching has slipped a bit after a stellar April. This is hardly an unbeatable team.

*****

Three True Outcomes - the Three True Outcomes in baseball are the strikeout, the walk, and the homerun. These are the outcomes that don't involve the defense or footspeed. It's just batter vs. pitcher to determine the outcome.

Some batters have embraced this method more than others to become legends of TTO. For the Orioles, Mickey Tettleton comes to mind. Elsewhere, Adam Dunn, Rob Deer and Jack Cust have embraced this "all-or-nothing" approach while still maintaining a good batting eye. So I decided to grab what I believe to be the highest TTO average seasons in Oriole history. The only two Orioles I knew that I would see on this list were Mickey Tettleton and perhaps Sam Horn. Some of the names were surprising.

                   Year   AB   HR   BB   SO   TTO%
Mickey Tettleton   1990  444   15  106  106   51.1%
Sam Horn           1991  317   23   41   99   45.5%
Mickey Tettleton   1989  411   26   73  117   44.6%
Jim Gentile        1961  486   46   96  106   42.6%
Cal Abrams         1955  309    6   89   69   41.2%
Boog Powell        1964  424   39   76   91   41.2%
Boog Powell        1966  491   34   67  125   40.5%
Jeff Manto         1995  254   17   24   69   39.5%
Chris Hoiles       1993  419   29   69   94   39.3%
Randy Milligan     1990  362   20   88   68   39.1%

 

As expected, Mickey Tettleton is the TTO king and Sam Horn comes in with the second highest TTO% for a season in Orioles history. Tettleton was so much fun to watch and would routinely walk and strikeout over 100 times each during a season, a rare talent. He was sent to Detroit straight up for P Jeff Robinson, one of the worst trades in the history of the franchise. Tettleton was a productive hitter for several years after the trade and Robinson...well, you probably know about Robinson.

Sam Horn had the potential to be a Tettleton-type slugger, albeit with more power. He never developed that batting eye to let the really bad pitches go.

Jim Gentile. A classic example of a TTO season was 1961. Should have remembered that. Also should not be surprised that Boog Powell show up on this list a couple of times.

Who is Cal Abrams? Abrams was a backup OF who played all three defensive positions for a terrible 97 loss team. He seemed to realize that while he was still a good fielder, his ability to hit was really slipping. So he seems to have decided not to make outs and walked a remarkable 86 times in only 407 plate appearances. It wasn't enough. 1955 would be Cal's last full season in the majors.

It seems that a 30-year old Jeff Manto arrived in Baltimore with the idea that he had better start swinging for the fences if he wanted to stick in the majors. In a way, he was right. 1995 was his best offensive year (108 OPS+) but he paid the price by striking out 69 times in 89 games. He was off to Boston the next year and went back to a more contact-making approach.

Chris Hoiles had a real breakout season in 1993 (the fact that he was not considered for the MVP that year is criminal...). When he made contact, good things happened but he struck out 94 times.

Randy Milligan was a mild surprise. I never remember Milligan as a guy with the skill set to draw 88 walks.

*****

I watched Miami play Georgia Tech last night and saw top prospect Miami 1B Yonder Alonso. He hit two homers but looked terribly mismatched against the lefty relievers they deployed against him. Miami can flat out hit throughout the lineup.

*****

The Wayward Oriole has made a significant scientific breakthrough. He can now measure Melmosity.

*****

Song of the Week: The Replacements - "Bastards of Young" Enjoy!

Stomping The Yankees

The top of the first last night was just about as close to baseball heaven as you can get.

7 runs against Mike Mussina to knock him from the game having retired only two batters. 3 RBI for The Truth. Derek Jeter commits an error. Jeter pouts. What a start!

But honestly, the whole game was like baseball heaven. 12-2. Beats 30-3 any day.

When is Derek Jeter going to man up and admit he can't play short anymore? It's getting embarrassing.

And I loved when Cabrera hit Jeter on the wrist and sent him to the lockers. Hit him right on his stupid little Michael Jordan wristband. Fantastic.

Luke Scott's bat put bad juju on the ball. It kept missing Yankee gloves. When he laid wood on the ball it could not be caught. Hits one to Jeter that he threw high. Hit one to Damon that fell from his glove. Hit one over the fence. They couldn't even throw at him properly.

By the way, retaliation is one thing but even the Yankee announcers thought it was bush league to throw at Scott's head. Especially Ken Singleton.

What slump? Ramon Hernandez is hitting above .300 for the last two weeks.

Round two is tonight. Enjoy watching the hottest team in baseball!

Q&A With MLB.com Writer Jonathan Mayo About His New Book, "Facing Clemens"

This is kind of a book review but with a different twist. The book is called "Facing Clemens" by Jonathan Mayo. No, it's not a rehash of the whole steroid mess. It's a look back at Roger Clemens' career between the lines...told by the hitters who had to face him.

What's the Oriole connection? Well, Cal Ripken, Jr. faced Clemens more than any other batter during his career and he sat down with for a very in depth interview about what it was like facing arguably the best pitcher of his generation.

Jonathan Mayo is a senior writer for MLB.com. He joined Major League Baseball’s official website in April 1999 and has covered every facet of the game. More recently Jonathan has focused his efforts on covering minor league baseball and, notably, the baseball draft. Mayo worked on the broadcast team assembled for ESPN’s coverage of the first televised baseball draft in 2007, interviewing draftees after their selections.

Jonathan was kind enough to participate in a Q&A about his book. Here it is:

Dempsey's Army: Examining a great pitcher’s career through the eyes of the opposing batters seems to be a pretty unique format for a baseball book. Where did you get the idea to write about Roger Clemens from this angle?

Jonathan Mayo: To give credit where it’s due, it was the publisher’s idea. They had done a pair of boxing books – “Facing Ali” and “Facing Tyson” – and felt the format would translate well to baseball. Clemens seemed to be the perfect subject at the time due to the length of his career and the level of his success.

DA: This book does not focus on steroids or the Mitchell Report. Indeed, you must have been in the middle of some of these interviews when the Mitchell Report was released. Did the report change the tone of the book at all or were you able to keep it strictly between the lines?

JM: Actually, the book was completely done before the Mitchell Report came out. So while there was a little helplessness when everything happened, there also was nothing I could do. Looking back, it’s sure been interesting timing, but I’m glad in a way that it is what it was meant to be: just a simple, pure baseball book.

DA: Cal Ripken, Jr. did not hit particularly well against Clemens during his career and he struck out against him more times than against any other pitcher (17 times). Ripken is known to be a standup guy but he couldn’t have been excited to sit down and talk about his struggles against Clemens. How did you talk him into it?

JM: I asked. Seriously. I had had the opportunity to do an interview with him for MLB.com when the NY-Penn League All-Star Game was in Aberdeen. That went really well and I think that helped pave the way. I think – or at least hope – that he liked the concept of the book. His recall for their matchups was uncanny and I think it’s the strongest chapter in the book as a result.

DA: Ripken said, “He was just a serious competitor. I know that some pitchers pride themselves on being a little intimidating, where they’ll move you off the plate. Certainly Roger had that ability to move you back and move you off the plate, but to me, he was a consummate professional and under control at all times.” Was this just a very nice way of saying Clemens would fire one in at your hip without batting an eye? Were other players you interviewed for this book so diplomatic?

JM: I think the thing Ripken appreciated was that while he could knock you off the plate, he was never a guy looking to hurt you, at least in his opinion. He always knew where the ball was going. That’s one of the things that makes his early career so amazing. He was a pure power pitcher, but with command. It was an amazing combination of skills at the time and I think Ripken had a lot of respect for what he could do. Other players did tend to take that aspect of things in stride. Maybe it’s old school thinking now, but a lot of players felt that getting knocked down was just a part of the game. In some ways, it was a badge of courage to get knocked down by Clemens.

DA: You have an impressive list of players that you interviewed for this book. Who surprised you as an interviewee? Is there anyone you would have liked to talked to but couldn’t?

JM: For obvious reasons (think 2000 World Series), I really wanted to talk to Mike Piazza. But he wasn’t interested. I had thought Spike Owen would’ve been a good one – he played with Clemens at Texas, then was on the Mariners team that struck out 20 times against him in 1986, only to get traded to Boston for the postseason run that season. But I never was able to connect with him. Surprises? All were good, really. I’d never really spoken with Chipper Jones at length before this and he was simply amazing and had Ripken-like recall. Maybe the most surprising was Koby Clemens. I thought that would make for a nice little chapter and we had such a good and interesting conversation that it turned out much better than I anticipated.

DA: You interviewed Phil Bradley who was the 20th strikeout victim during Clemens’ dominating game versus Seattle. Ripken struggled against Clemens most of his career but recalled a three-run homer against Clemens on Opening Day in 1989 as one of the few times that he got the best of Roger. How ironic is it that Phil Bradley was one of the men on base when Ripken hit that shot?

JM: That’s the beauty of baseball, isn’t it? Even within that 20-strikeout game, Bradley pointed out that the Mariners weren’t even totally aware of what was going on because they were leading for much of it and they were really focusing on getting the win. Imagine what the reaction would have been had Clemens set that record and actually lost the game!

DA: So after all this research, what’s the best way to get a hit off of Roger Clemens?

JM: Swing early, I guess. The one common theme, even as he evolved as a pitcher, was to get him early in the count. Especially after he added that splitter, if you fell behind, you were in big trouble.

DA: OK, I’m going to pick your brain about the Orioles’ prospects. True or False: Adam Jones will be a star player.

JM: True. Give him some time. He’s learning on the job. When all is said and done, you’ll be quite happy.

DA: Excepting Matt Wieters, what Oriole farmhand will be the next regular contributor for the big club?

JM: Next? Instead of going with someone who’s close – literally the next – I’ll stay there in Frederick. I think Jake Arrieta’s going to move pretty quickly. Heck, might as well just keep him and Wieters together. Seems to be working so far, doesn’t it?

DA: The farm system has been strengthened by the offseason trades and the 2007 draft but still has a long way to go. What player do you expect Baltimore to draft in the 2008 amateur draft?

JM: There are several players that could fit into the O’s plans with the No. 4 pick. In my first crack and projecting the top 10 picks, I had them taking University of San Diego lefty Brian Matusz, who’s much more than a pitchability college southpaw. He’s got some serious stuff and could be a top of the rotation type quickly. If they wanted to go bat, they could go with University of Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham or maybe South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak.

Jonathan Mayo's book "Facing Clemens" can be purchased here on Jonathan's website.

http://www.jonathanmayo.net/

Thinking About The Draft...

To continue Thursday's thought, Jay Payton only got one hit all weekend (a homer) and it came off a lefty. He went 0 for whatever against the righthanded pitchers he faced. Just saying he needs his weaknesses masked...

*****

Here in Georgia, there's a lot of good college baseball being played. I am hoping to get out to see some of the games in the NCAA Regional Tournament this year. Until then, the amateur draft is coming up and I've been watching some of the top SEC and ACC to see some of these guys who might be future Orioles.

I was watching Georgia vs. Georgia Tech yesterday, specifically to see a player who might be the best in the country, Georgia SS Gordon Beckham. With the number 4 overall pick, the Orioles will have a very good shot at drafting Beckham and the farm system could surely use a top shortstop prospect. He went 2-4 with a walk.

Beckham is really smooth in the field, like he's on ice skates. He ranged way to his left, picked up the ball on a bounce and flipped it perfectly to the second baseman to start the double play. Smooth as silk.

But don't take my word for it. Here's a few highlights from a game against Clemson. Note the fielding...



He also ranks 1st or 2nd in 6 offensive categories in the SEC and is in the top 10 in 12 overall.

The two players who stood out for Tech were actually freshman.

RHP Deck McGuire is a 6'6" freshman who throws a fastball in the low 90's, throws a wicked 12-to-6 curve and has an 82 mph changeup. He need to work on his control but seems to know how to change speeds and worked out of a couple jams without losing his cool. He's gone 8-0 in a real tough SEC.

SS Derek Dietrich has great range and a great bat. He's hit .333 and slugged .623 in his first year of collegiate ball. He also ranked 3rd in RBI in the ACC.

I think you may be hearing from these guys in a few years...

The other top prospect in this game was Georgia RHP Josh Fields. He came in to preserve the 3-2 Georgia lead for the win, striking out two in the ninth for the save. Serious heat.

How to Make Jay Payton Look Awesome (and trade him...)

First, I present the headline for yesterday's O's game on ESPN.com:

Manny's snag, high-five steal O's thunder

Hey, ESPN! There's a school called Fordham University. Some people call it FU. That's right ESPN, FU.

Anyway, far be it for me to tell the great Dave Trembley what to do. (That's not sarcastic at all, I think he's doing an excellent job...) But he's making a big mistake that is affecting the Orioles on the field and in the front office.

As I mentioned yesterday, Jay Payton can only do two things well at this advanced stage of his career: serve as a passable defensive replacement and mash lefthanded pitching.

It's an evolution that has been happening gradually over the past 3 or 4 seasons but the transformation is now complete. Jay Payton is a guy you call off the bench to pinch hit against lefthanded relievers or give him spot starts against lefty starters.

If Dave Trembley would start deploying him as such, Payton will succeed and get the attention of contending teams in the National League. Good pinch hitters are not easy to come by. A veteran who could pinch-hit (like Payton) could be seen as a commodity come the trade deadline.

But only if you start his "branding" now. He's a righthanded bat off the bench who can rake lefties and a fine defensive replacement. Start using him that way now and it'll pay dividends in the box score and maybe get you a young minor league arm that is worthy of pitching in the Oriole bullpen in 2009.

Spreading The Magic

I looked for this last night but leave it to someone from the Oriole Magic blog (in this case, Heathir Irvin) to find it first.

I'm posting it here because the magic needs spreading:



Bring on the NATS! Bring 'em on! I smell blood!

The Nats are really terrible. If they weren't in the NL with a bunch of other terrible teams...they might be on their way to losing 100 games.

Their pitching staff is third worst in the NL in runs allowed, they only hit .235 and OPS .668 as a team. That's like having whole team of Brendan Harris' batting for you. Hardly imposing.

Sticking My Head In To Say Hi...

...since I haven't posted anything of substance in two and a half days. Been too busy trying to learn MySQL and some rudimentary Dutch (don't ask) to form much significant Orioles thought.

Until today.

Inspired by the O's mini-sweep of the Boston Red Sox, I had to pen an open letter to substitute Red Sox manager, Brad Mills.

Dear Brad,

Just a little note to thank you for giving us the opportunity to take these last two games from you. You don't know what wins like these mean to a struggling franchise like the the Baltimore Orioles and your generosity is greatly appreciated.

Really, beating Josh Beckett would have been enough for us. Victories over one of baseball's top pitchers just aren't expected and we were thankful enough to see the team catch him on one of the rare days when he was quite hittable.

But today was just too much. You shouldn't have! With the bases loaded, the Orioles were trailing 3-2 in the 7th with two outs. Jay Payton was at the plate and, well, let's just say that Birdland was less than optimistic that a guy hitting .220 would end up the hero.

But Brad, you had pity on us. You took out righty Craig Hansen and brought in lefty Hideki Okijima. At his advanced age, Jay Payton can only do two things; play a passable defensive leftfield and mash lefthanded pitchers. Here's the splits for Payton...as if you didn't know!

                 vs. RHP           vs. LHP
Payton 2008  .216/.259/.216    .250/.250/.542
 

Those aren't Ruthian numbers against lefties but at least it gave us a fighting chance. Dave Trembley couldn't have planned it better himself...even if he actually had bench players to use.

Again, thanks for handing over the sweep on a silver platter today. We know Terry Francona wouldn't have been nearly as generous.

Your Friends,

The Oriole Faithful

*****

Daniel Cabrera - mentally tough.

Baltimore Orioles: First Quarter Report

With an off day today, the Orioles have essentially wrapped up the first quarter of the season. So how are they doing?

First, let's discuss the record. The Orioles stand at 19-19. That's .500 at the quarter season mark for a team that was nearly universally thought to be well on their way to losing 100 games in 2008. Some thought it would be worse than the 1988 Orioles or at least in the ballpark. This team now has to go 43-81 the rest of the way to reach that goal. I just don't see it.

I thought this team would be slightly better than the 2007 version but figured they would struggle early and get better. They have been decent early with many indicators pointing to the team getting better still. Is a winning team a reasonable expectation? Maybe not. Flirting with .500 certainly is.

Pleasant Surprises

Brian Roberts remains with the team. He may not be here in August but I didn't expect him to see Mother's Day with the club.

Daniel Cabrera's performance.

George Sherrill. I liked the addition of Sherrill but had no idea he could be a closer or do it so well. Wayward O did though.

Brian Burres holding down a spot in the rotation and doing pretty well.

Jim Johnson, Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate and Matt Albers aiding the veterans to give Baltimore a credible bullpen.

Disappointments

The offense as a whole. I have detailed that they are hitting better than the numbers say but it is still pretty frustrating that these guys can't consistently get hits.

Adam Loewen on the DL. He'll be back but you have to wonder if he'll ever be healthy enough to learn how to pitch.

Steve Trachsel. Trax is a placeholder and that was the intent when he was brought in but he has done little to hold on to that spot in the rotation he has.

Shortstop. Turns out Luis Hernandez couldn't field either. He has looked good at second base though.

Luke Scott with only one homer. Leftfield in Camden Yards is cursed. It's the Curse of B.J. Surhoff. Ever since The Warehouse traded Surhoff to Atlanta at the 2000 deadline, nobody has given us consistent play in left. (OK, B.J. came back and did it for a couple of years but he was only a part-timer at that point.) Granted, Scott is still an upgrade from what the O's have trotted out the past few seasons but I expected the guy to slug at least .400.

In my pre-season look at the Orioles, i identified 5 reasons to be optimistic:

Improve Outfield Production

Although I am a bit disappointed with Scott's bat so far, he is OPSing .727 which is a big improvement from the .631 OPS Oriole leftfielders put up last year.

Adam Jones isn't there yet. He's OPSing .631 compared to .713 from Oriole centerfielders last year. But he'll get to at least that production by season's end.

Markakis has struggled a bit with his average but is still OPSing about what he did last season (.852 vs. 847).

Jay Payton? He's been bad overall (.655 OPS) but against lefties is OPSing .792. I really wish Dave Trembley would stop giving him ABs against righthanders.

The outfield isn't there yet but Adam Jones will improve.

The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

Correctamundo. Trembley has handled the pen better and managed to build a pretty effective relief corp.

Rebounds

Aubrey Huff has rebounded a bit. Still waiting for Ramon Hernandez.

A Better Bench

Kind of a moot point with the team carrying 13 pitchers until very recently but no it's not any better than last year. We shall see what Freddie Bynum and Alex Cintron can do.

A Decent Manager

Considering that very few things have been clicking at the same time this season, Trembley has done a pretty good job. He has the team at .500 (which is one game above their Pythagorean Record) while still getting the youngsters the majority of the playing time.

His recent decision to go with a four-man rotation (for the time being) shows he's willing to make unorthodox decisions to mask his team's weaknesses.

The Next Quarter?

They survived the road but now you have to survive the AL East. Over the next month there will be lots of games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. No pushovers (save Washington) until the Pirates come to town a month from tomorrow. The good news is that outside of the Red Sox, all the teams in our division are pretty flawed right now.

It's a tough task but the next logical step for the Baby Birds to get this team back to respectability.

Base Hits: 5/9/2008

Sucker that I am, I am now solidly back on the Daniel Cabrera bandwagon. Complete game? Only one walk? Oh yeah, I'm on the D-Train.

As if to highlight his bad luck at the plate, Ramon Hernandez lined out hard his first two at bats and hit a grounder deep in the whole behind third where Tony Pena, Jr. made a great play that robbed him of a single. His only hit was a fluky broken bat single to center. I'm guessing he'll take them any way he can get them these days.

I'm starting the Church of Freddie:

Amazing what being a shortstop not named Hernandez or Fahey will get you in 2008. So happy to hear the Bynum is now the starting shortstop...

*****

I was watching the Royal feed of the game last night. The announcers said that Brian Roberts had won a Gold Glove which, of course, has never happened. How can you get something like that wrong?

Also, they talked to Royals pitcher Brian Bannister twice during the game. Bannister is going to make a great coach or GM when he's done playing. The guy has a lot of knowledge about the game and is able to communicate it wonderfully.

*****

OK, OK. I was wrong about John Maine. How was I supposed to know he would develop a strikeout pitch? Crap.

*****

The Oriole Trade Monitors are updated with the latest Win Share data from this season. The Bedard and Tejada trades were obviously made with an eye to the future but the Orioles are getting equal value for the present as well.

*****

Coming up next week, more analysis of the shocking turnaround of Daniel Cabrera, how Brian Burres continues to prove me wrong and more BHI stuff.

Song of the Week: Feeling rather political with the national elections gearing up. Here's James McMurtry, one hell of a songwriter. Have a great weekend!

Big Homer Index Revisited

FanGraphs.com is slowly putting together a whole bunch of WPA data for decades past. When it is done, it would be interesting to compare my made-up stats with who actually did hit the most big homers in Oriole history.

What's the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here. And remember, it's grounded in reality but all in fun.

Chris Hoiles - 151 Career Home Runs

Chris Hoiles was a natural for this "study" because he always had the reputation of hitting the homer when nobody was on base or when it didn't much matter, at least the first half of his career.

BHI shows that Hoiles did hit a lot of solo shots (89 out of 151 career homers were solo). He also hit a bunch of homeruns when the game was already decided (21 homers with the Orioles up by 4 runs, 29 when they were up by at least three) but that's not the whole story. A full 25% of Chris' career homers put the team ahead and another 11% tied the game. Add three walk-off home runs during his career and Hoiles fares very well on the index.

BHI - 240


Brady Anderson - 210 Career Home Runs

Brady has a natural disadvantage in BHI because he was a leadoff hitter. Anderson hit a ton of solo shots (148) but only led off the game with a homer 23 times so I'm not sure things are skewed against him quite as bad as you might think.

In addition to the high number of solo shots, he hit 23% of his home runs with the team either up or down by four or more runs.

What saves Brady's BHI is the 72 homers (34%) he hit to give the team the league and the lone game ending homer he hit against the Twins on April 13th, 1996.

Overall, not too shabby for a leadoff hitter.

BHI - 138


Brooks Robinson - 268 Career Home Runs

Brooks Robinson is the standard bearer for BHI prowess, at least up to this point. Brooks hit 8 walk-off homers, double the number of Cal Ripken despite trailing Cal by nearly 200 career home runs. Only 40 of his home runs came with the Orioles up or down by 4 or more runs and 46% of his homers either tied the game up or gave the team the lead. This doesn't even count the postseason!

I can't imagine anybody topping Brook's BHI. He certainly took pitchers deep when it mattered the most.

BHI - 495


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Chris Hoiles - 240
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

More to come...