Base Hits: 3/25/2008

Luis Hernandez made yet another throwing error in yesterday's game giving him 5 total for the spring.

Brandon Fahey is being handed a the job as the starting shortstop on a silver platter. Much like Hernandez, there is no way that Fahey would have a chance to start for any other team in the league. But the Warehouse traded away Miguel Tejada leaving a gaping hole in this organization at short. They have yet to trade Brian Roberts for any other shortstop prospect and Fahey is latching on to the job that Hernandez is (literally) throwing away (into the dugout).

Fahey has out-hit and out-fielded Hernandez this spring. Time to cut our losses with Hernadez and patch the hole with Fahey until someone better (Blake Davis?) comes along.

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An interesting read over at The Hardball Times as Sean Smith attempts to quantify the best defensive players since 1956. Obviously, many Baltimore Orioles are at the top of this list. (Including the assertion that Mark Belanger was a better defensive shortstop than Ozzie Smith.)

Then the Orioles caused problems for his system in other ways, through something he calls "the Jim Palmer problem".

The Orioles of the late 1960s and early 1970s had incredible defensive numbers. The teams allowed far fewer hits on balls in play than an average team. If we give all this credit to Brooks Robinson, Paul Blair, Mark Belanger and Bobby Grich, then we have to take some credit away from Palmer. Could it be that it was the other way around, that Palmer’s great pitching made those fielders look better by getting batters to hit into easy outs?

Turns out that Palmer was able to induce outs from balls put in play at a rate nearly unheard of by non-knuckleball pitchers. I'll let you sift through Sean's methods but it is fascinating to me and cool to see some of your favorite players showing up on all-time great lists.

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Gibbons Headed to Minor League Camp - I got really excited when I saw this headline but it turns out that the Orioles are just sending him there to workout during his suspension. Hopefully, he'll just stay there.

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As if any of us cared, Nestor Aparicio has decided he's going back to Camden Yards.

I want to make this clear: the Orioles are as shameful and as pathetic as they’ve ever been in virtually every department (from marketing to media relations to dealing with their employees to dealing with the business community and people in general) – it’s actually getting WORSE, not better -- but I’m going back to the games anyway.

Isn't this the guy who didn't know who George Sherrill was a couple of days ago? I wonder if old Nestor would be reversing course if Free The Birds II has gone well and gotten him some of his much craved publicity?

My detractors and those on Mr. Angelos’ extended payroll called me a charlatan and said it was a “publicity stunt.”

Well count me as one of those who consider you a charlatan. Actually, I called you a carnival barker. Somehow my check from Peter Angelos for writing this little blog has been lost in the mail.

Nestor is and remains a blowhard with paranoid delusions worthy of Richard Nixon. And he's an assclown.

Chinks in the Armor

The season kicks off early tomorrow morning as the Red Sox and A's square off in Japan.

Before the season starts, let's get an update on our division rivals.

Tampa Bay Rays

Along with staff ace Scott Kazmir and projected RF Rocco Baldelli, utility man Ben Zobrist is expected to start the year on the DL. Also, in an act of ultimate cheapness, Evan Longoria was reassigned to minor league camp.

Kazmir has a strained elbow and there is no timetable for his return. The staff (Shields, Garza, Sonnastine, Jackson, Hammel) hardly looks as promising with Kazmir out of the picture.

RF will be manned by old man Cliff Floyd who will be lucky to be a league average hitter before he gets injured and Eric Hinske had to take over.

With Longoria gone, third will be manned by the sorry Willy Aybar who didn't play at all last season and is a headcase to say the least. (Tampa shipped out Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes because of their personality flaws but at least they had talent! Aybar is a marginal major leaguer and a problem child...) Aybar us injured and so is Zobrist so your guess is as good as mine who will open the season at the hot corner.

Toronto Blue Jays

It was only a matter of time but even I didn't expect Scott Rolen to go down this fast. Marco Scutaro, a downgrade both offensively and defensively, will play third. Rolen is expected to be out at least a few of weeks.

The Jays great bullpen is showing some cracks as B. J. Ryan's comeback has hit some bumps in the road and their best reliever from 2007, Casey Janssen, is gone for the season.

A.J. Burnett is battling a broken fingernail on his throwing hand. Expect his struggles to continue.

New York Yankees

Andy Pettite is battling back spasms. That's a big deal for a team whose rotation is a bit thin after the number 2 hurler but other than this news it's situation normal for the Yanks.

Boston Red Sox

Schilling's down. Josh Beckett is battling injuries. Mike Timlin has an injury to his right ring finger.

It would be nice if Beckett's injury lingered...

How Baltimore Can Win The East: The Case FOR Baltimore

That's right. The case FOR Baltimore.

I've read too many articles, projections, previews and predictions that talk about what is going AGAINST the Orioles. Enough actually, that my dander is up, spurring me on to finally write this final installment.

Rally round O's fans! The eternal optimist will turn his head upward towards the rest of the division, glare defiantly, roll up his sleeves and lick his chops.

1. Outfield Production

First, forget about Nick Markakis. Forget that he is projected to steadily improve on his solid numbers from last season. I mean, just forget about that for a moment.

I have bemoaned the lack of offense at the centerfield and (especially) leftfield for the last two seasons. That, however, is about to change.

OPS of Oriole leftfielders from 2005-2007: .670, .681, .631

Let's assume that Luke Scott just comes in and posts the .855 OPS he had last year. Hell, let's just assume he posts his CHONE projection of .789...you see what I'm getting at? Scott is a huge upgrade from anything we've had in leftfield since B.J. Surhoff was a useful player. Nice upgrade at a position that sorely needed one.

OPS of Oriole centerfielders from 2005-2007: .668, .715, .713

Meet Adam Jones. We all love projections, don't we? Jones is projected to post an OPS over .800 by Bill James and ZIPS. That and good defense will go a long way towards improving the team overall.

Overall? The outfield looks to be the best Baltimore has fielded since 1999.

2. The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

I don't think so. In 2007, questionable personnel were put in bad positions and overworked early in the season by Sam Perlozzo. That changed under Dave Trembley and if not for a season ending injury to closer Chris Ray and lefty Brian Burres being pressed into starting duties (due to injuries to the staff) it is conceivable that Dave Trembley may have been able to keep the bleeding to a minimum after her took over.

The bullpen returns the two best performers from 2007 (Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford) adds another proven commodity in George Sherrill (even if he's not in a role he's proven at). Brian Burres (may) be back in the pen as a long man which is the role he's best suited for. The rest will be some mix of Dennis Sarfate, Greg Aquino, Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry and Jon Leicester. Really, are any of these arms worse than Paul Shuey, Rob Bell, Kurt Birkins or Todd Williams. I say no.

Down on the farm Bob McCrory, James Hoey and others await as backup and Chris Ray may return late this summer.

The O's had a historically bad bullpen and still didn't lose 100 games in 2007. It will be difficult to be that bad again. For that reason alone, the pen looks better by default.

3. Rebounds

This is a minor factor to be sure but every little bit counts. Ramon Hernandez was not as bad as he looked last year. He will be better and indeed he is projected to be better. Aubrey Huff is projected to be somewhat better. Even Melvin Mora is projected to have a slight uptick by the Bill James projection (Although, just holding steady will be fine with me...)

Some minor improvements by some of the underperforming vets could squeeze out a win or three over the course of the season.

4. A Better Bench

This one's dicey because we really don't know who will be on that bench. But Guillermo Quiroz is a better bat off the bench than, say, Paul Bako. Scott Moore will be there and when he's playing Millar or Spanky will be on the bench. Freddie Bynum and Tike Redman will be nice pieces to play with.

All of this is dependant on the fact that Jay Gibbons doesn't return. I can't imagine he will but stranger things have happened.

5. A Decent Manager

For the first time since Davey Johnson left, we seem to have a manger who is inventive enough to explore his teams strengths to try and win. He took unorthodox measures in 2007 when shorthanded (batting Corey Patterson 2nd, Kevin Millar as a cleanup hitter) and he knows how to manage his bullpen and his bench. These are good qualities to manage a team that will have plenty of disadvantages out of the gate.

Trembley is used to being the underdog. Did anybody here think he would be able to remove that interim tag from his title when he took over for Sam Perlozzo last season. I sure didn't. Trembley's playing with house money and he's playing to win.

Conclusion

Do I really believe the O's can win the division? No. Do I believe they will be the AL doormat? No. Do I believe this will be a fun team to watch? Yes. Do I believe they can be competitive and flirt with .500? Yes.

Keep writing Baltimore off. I like it.

photo courtesy of the Baltimore Sun

Spring Training Update

1. The Bullpen Auditions - Out of the seven probable bullpen spots, it looks like 4 are now locked up. Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Goerge Sherrill (who has now officially been tabbed as the closer) and either Brian Burress or Matt Albers, the loser of the competition for the 5th starting spot in the rotation. Dennis Sarfate is out of options and will likely make the team. Randor Bierd has pitched very well and since he's a Rule V pick, I have to believe Dave Trembley will find a spot for him. That's six. The last spot probably comes down to either Greg Aquino or John Leciester. Leciester has not pitched great but Trembley has expressed a desire to keep two long men in the pen.



2. The Scott Moore Factor - Moore has been a little banged up but has hit .556 and slugged .889 this spring. Moore is clearly making this team. Jay Gibbons will be relegated deep onto the bench if he makes the team at all.



3. The Young Arms - The young arms have disappointed a bit. Steve Trachsel is certainly going to make the team and Brian Burres and Matt Albers are battling it out for the 5th spot in the rotation. Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn and Jim Johnson will go to AAA and look to return later this season.



4. The Least Repulsive Option at Shortstop - So far, Brandon Fahey has the inside track simply because Luis Hernandez has been poor in the field. With Freddie Bynum injured, Fahey's versatility may keep him on the roster anyway. Juan Uribe has been cut by the White Sox so he may turn out to be the starter at short instead.



5. The Battle for the Backup Backstop Part II - It's over and Guillermo Quiroz looks to be a significant upgrade over last years backup catchers.

More:

I'm not really getting my hopes up but Melvin Mora is hitting everything real hard this spring.

A nice article about Adam Jones (and the Oriole's spring in general) on ESPN.com.

An article on former Oriole Larry Bigbie as he begins his career in Japan. The Mitchell Report is also feature prominently.

Reports are that the Cubs brass are getting annoyed about how long the Brian Roberts talks are dragging on. Well, tough luck fellas. We need to trade B-Rob even less than Tejada or Bedard as we have him under contract for two more years. If you want to make a legitimate run at the World Series this year, you'll pony up. If not, the Mets could use some help at second base. Brian Roberts in the National League. He'll be a monster...

2008 NL Predictions

The AL was yesterday, the NL is today.

NL East

Atlanta

Philadelphia

New York Mets

Washington

Florida

Atlanta will have the best lineup in the NL this year. That and a solid, not spectacular, pitching staff will spell success. Philly has too many questions surrounding their pitching. The Mets are going to be a huge disappointment. Their lineup is quite suspect and the pitching past Santana will be only fair. Pedro does not make 25 starts. Nats will be almost respectable with some of that young talent. Marlins traded away their two best players and their young pitchers are banged up.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee

Cincinnatti

St Louis

Houston

Pittsburgh

If the Cubs finally get Brian Roberts, they may run away with the Central. Brewers need a bit more pitching but may sneak in with the wild card. Cincinnatti will be a winning team. Pujols injuries linger and Cards limp along behind. Astros would finish last if not for Pirates with overrated lineup and no pitching after Oswalt. Pirates will be the Pirates.

NL West

San Diego

Los Angeles

Arizona

Colorado

San Francisco

Lackluster lineup but a potentially dominant pitching staff 1-5 will win them the West. Balanced Dodgers will contend until the end, probably get Wild Card. Arizona takes a step back, they overachieved in 2007. Rockies too but mostly because their pitching staff returns to mediocrity. Giants may be the worst team in the NL.

2008 AL Predictions

Inspired by The Wayward O's series, I thought I'd weigh in with my predictions for the 2008 season. I won't be as detailed as Wayward O but I wanted to get them on the record.

AL East

Boston

New York

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

I just don't see a lot changing here. Boston and New York will both be relying on young pitching this year but New York more so. Toronto probably doesn't have the lineup to make the move to second place but if the Yankees pitching staff suffers injuries, they could sneak in there. I don't think that the Orioles will be any worse and I'm the only man in America who doesn't see where this quantum leap in Tampa is going to come from, especially with Scott Kazmir injured and Rocco Baldelli out indefinitely.

AL Central

Detroit

Cleveland (WC)

Minnesota

Kansas City

Chicago White Sox

Detroit clobbers the AL with the best lineup in baseball. Cleveland takes a small step backwards but should still be able to secure the Al Wild Card. Minnesota (and Delmon Young) surprise and will be much better than anyone thinks. Kansas City improves a wee bit but Ozzie Guillen gets fired midseason as the White Sox implode.

AL West

Anaheim, LA, whatever

Seattle

Texas

Oakland

Angels youngsters get better and most balanced team in the league takes the West. Mariners make it interesting but run out of gas. Texas is rebuilding but is ahead of Oakland in that process with the crop of players they got in return for Mark Texiera. Billy Beane or not, the A's will have major growing pains this season.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Base Hits: 3/14/2008

It's kind of ironic that the Orioles are hoping that Luis Hernandez becomes a modern day Mark Belanger because on Thursday they squared off against a guy who actually is the modern day Mark Belanger.

His name is Adam Everett and the Orioles are indirectly responsible for him being on the Twins roster in the first place. Everett has been the best defensive shortstop in the National League (perhaps in all of baseball) for several years but the Astros found him expendable once they acquired Miguel Tejada from the Orioles this offseason. The Astros cut him loose, the Twins signed him for peanuts and the O's are struggling to find a viable option at short.

Everett would have been a great fit with Baltimore but I guess they thought he wasn't $1.6 million better than Hernandez. Unfortunately, it looks like they may have been wrong...

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I can't say enough about what a great resource BaseballReference.com is, especially their Play Index feature (requires subscription). Weaver's Tantrum has sponsored the Adam Loewen page for 2008. I sponsored the Brian Burres page last year (hey, it was cheap) and haven't picked out the Oriole I want to sponsor this year. I encourage everyone to go take a look at the site and sponsor something to help support those guys.

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Speaking of Loewen, John Sickels over at Minor League Ball gives us some thoughts on Adam Loewen. He is concerned about injuries for Loewen but also says he compares very favorably to Al Leiter. I think we'll take that kind of career from Loewen anyday.

edit: Looks like they're going to shut down Loewen for at least one start. Tightness in the shoulder. Uh-oh. Weaver's Tantrum has some thoughts.

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The Wayward O has an entertaining series of posts that look at each MLB division and gives a predicted order of finish.

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Hayden Penn has been sent to back to minor league camp. Penn is coming off of injury and looked plenty rusty during his play on the Arizona Fall League (although he did manage to lead the league in strikeouts) but looked pretty sharp this spring. With Troy Patton out for the season, he looked like a legitimate candidate to make the team.

Unlike last season, I think Penn needs a month or two of healthy pitching back in Norfolk before returning to the big club, just to tune up a bit. If healthy, I'd like to see him get a long look this summer.

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Scouts watching the Astros this spring are saying that Tejada is playing a woeful shortstop and they don't think he will be manning that position by season's end.

Open Letter to Luis Hernandez

edit: I started writing this letter to Luis Hernandez after Tuesday's game, then had to go back an change it today as Hernandez made yet another throwing error on Wednesday. Sheesh! Shortstop was a question mark before and now it's becoming a huge concern. I think we need to kill a rooster to take the curse off his glove.

Dear Luis,

Let's get to the point. Can you just catch the damn ball? Or even better, when you catch the ball can you throw it somewhere near the firstbaseman's glove? You seem to be throwing it into the dugout or in the dirt. 4 errors in 9 games? Your glove was to be you calling card. Now it may be your downfall.

We were willing to embrace you. We respect defensive specialists at short in Baltimore. Outside of Cal Ripken, Baltimore has embraced the likes of Mark Belanger, Luis Aparicio and Mike Bordick. Any hit they got was gravy. This town, more than any, will forgive your offensive deficiencies if you can flash the leather. Baltimore understands the value of defense at short.

So start flashing it! Brandon Fahey has two errors but is eating your lunch!

You understand that this is the only team in the league that would consider opening the season with you in their starting lineup right? We don't care if you flirt with Mendoza line. Just make the plays in the field.

Three throwing errors. I hope for the sake of you and the team that you aren't developing a case of the yips. Snap out of it buddy. We'll be waiting for you when you do.

Signed,

Dempsey's Army

Spring Training, Philosophy and Injuries

Freddie Bynum will be out up to five weeks with a knee injury. He'll only miss a week or two during the regular season but the team will suffer without their utility man. It is a big dropoff to Brandon Fahey who would probably serve in that capacity at the beginning of the year.

In related news, the O's are rumored to be interested in Astros IF Mark Loretta. If they're going to trade Roberts (and it looks like they will) I like the move to pick up Loretta as long as they don't give up anyone decent to get him. I'm all for playing the kids but as far as secondbasemen go, the Orioles don't have any prospects. No sense in completely sucking at a position unless there's a potential payoff.

The Cubs are reportedly interested in acquiring Coco Crisp from the Red Sox. Why would they do this unless they find Felix Pie expendable? Pie could sweeten the pot for the Roberts deal a lot.

Let's look at some of the roster battles going on.


The Bullpen - Who knows? Dennis Sarfate has distinguished himself but that's about it. Everyone else has been varying levels of OK. Here's where we find out about Dave Trembely. Will he go with whoever has the hot hand in ST regardless of past track record (Greg Aquino, 4.88 ERA for his career but unhittable this spring), go with unproven youth (Radhames Liz) or look for more dependable veteran help elsewhere.

Outside of Sherrill, Walker and Bradford, I have no idea who's going to make this bullpen. A lot will depend on Trembley's philosophy.


Scott Moore - He's going to make this team and as long as he hits the first couple weeks of the regular season, Jay Gibbons won't be back. Right now, this looks like a done deal.

The Young Arms - With Troy Patton out of the picture and few guys stepping up big this spring, it looks like Steve Trachsel was a good insurance policy for the Baltimore Orioles v.2.0.08

Who's our number 5? Brian Burress has been wild and is best suited for long relief in my estimation. Garrett Olson has been wild as well and fairly hittable. Hayden Penn has been pretty good considering he's returning from injury but I think he should have at least a month in Norfolk to get back to his old self. The leading candidate at this point would have to be Matt Albers (5 IP, 5 Ks, 1 BB) but he's hardly head and shoulders above the other guys.

This one will be interesting to watch over the next three weeks.

The Shortstop - Fahey has hit a bit better that Luis Hernandez this spring but both were supposed to be showcasing their gloves. Not so much. Both have made 2 errors each in only 7 games. Ouch.

We may be missing Miggy more than we realized.

The Backup Backstop - Guillermo Quiroz has looked great this spring, behind the plate and at the plate. I don't expect this guy to hit .300 but I'll bet he'll hit .250 with modest power. That's a big upgrade from last year.

Chris Heintz hasn't looked bad either. Nice to have some options at catcher besides aging has-been retreads.

So I was watching the game on Friday and liked what I heard from Andy MacPhail. One thing he said the organization was tracking (and encouraging players to improve on) was pitches per plate appearance. While he was in the booth, Luis Hernandez struck out but saw 12 pitches during his at bat. MacPhail pointed out that Luis just had a positive at bat because, although he still struck out, he helped wear the pitcher down a bit more and allowed his teammates to see more pitches from the guy. Sure enough, the O's mounted a two-out rally shortly after and drove the pitcher from the game.

Agree with it or not, it's nice to have a philosophy. An organizational philosophy!

Random Thoughts

Since there is so little local interest in Spring Training games in Baltimore, I'm getting to listen to various radio announcing teams from around the country.

On Tuesday, I got to listen to the Cardinal announcers Mike Shannon and John Rooney. Two grumpier old men you'll never hear. It was like watching the game with two of my crotchety old great uncles. Everything was better in the old days for these guys. The only thing they got excited about was talking about the late Max Patkin and the San Diego Chicken. You Cardinal fans must really miss Jack Buck.

Today I got to listen to the Twins broadcasting team of John Gordon and Dan Gladden. I had never heard these guys before. John Gordon is actually pretty good, does a nice no-frills play-by-play. Dan Gladden is a bloviating gas-bag. Every other event during today's game spawned a story from Gladden about his days playing the game. Every ex-player does this but the good ones balance it well. Gladden does not. He is also quite derisive and derogatory toward the "modern" players. Christ. He's unbearable.

I heard about one of the most unusual promotional giveaways today. The Twins will be giving away "Dirt Shirts" during one of their home games. What is a Dirt Shirt? It is a shirt that has been infused with dirt from the construction site of the new Twins stadium. Ummm...awesome?

Brian Roberts has been on base 5 times this spring and has stolen 5 bases. He is running for his career! His feet are on fire.

Mike Costanzo and Scott Moore are raking this Spring. I think you can envision Constanzo and Moore taking the place of Gibbons and Millar on the roster, maybe as soon as this fall. But both are more flexible than your standard 1B/DH types.

I didn't know that Eddie Murray could levitate.




Finally, at long last, I will be able to watch an Oriole Spring Training game tomorrow.

Glorious Spring Afternoon

A beautiful spring day here in Atlanta and if you can't be outside, listening to the Orioles is not a bad way to spend your afternoon.

Outside of our local broadcasters (of course), does it get any better than listening to Charley Steiner and Rick Monday call a ballgame? Outside of Vin Scully anyway. It doesn't, does it?

'Follow me! Follow me to freedom!"





You gotta love Charley Steiner. Very happy he is no longer with the Yankees. The fact that he didn't get along with that tool John Sterling only raises my opinion of him.

In the interest of equal time, Rick Monday saves the flag:



The Orioles faced two of their former pitchers today. Jason Johnson pitched for the Sebu Lions in Japan last year but is trying to win a roster spot with L.A. Matt Riley pitched for AAA Las Vegas last season and came on in relief. Adam Jones took his first pitch over the centerfield wall. But then he struck out two of the next three batters. Such was the tantalizing allure of Matt Riley.

When Budweiser highlights "Mr. T-Shirt Launcher Inventor Guy" during one of their "Real Men of Genius" ads, haven't they just run out of ideas?

Leave it to Estaban Yan to make the game exciting. Trembley saw enough of that last season Esteban. Good luck making the club!

To leave you today, I found this video on YouTube while looking for Rick Monday saving the flag. It made me laugh. Creative heckling is an art form.

Base Hits: 3/2/2008

I find this article in Sunday's Baltimore Sun fascinating! Great work, Jeff Zrebiec!

When I said the O's were going to have some real weapons in the outfield this year, I didn't mean actual real weapons! (badoon-bum-ching!)

A mugger's worst nightmare: jumping a group of guys in a dark alley and having them be Luke Scott, Jamie Walker and Nick Markakis.

Seriously, I have no problem with this. It's legal, it's fine with me. Must be the Libertarian streak in me.

Nor do I have an issue with his strong religious beliefs. For all the concern about religion causing issues in the clubhouse, it almost never happens. The only guy I can remember really causing issues in regards to his religion was an outfielder named Chad Curtis back in the 1990's.

Anyway, great article. A must read.

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A few thoughts on the games this weekend.

Spring training stats don't count for much but if you are Jay Gibbons you really don't want to get off to an 0-8 start with 3 strikeouts and no walks. Very poor.

Highlighting Gibbon's struggles in the versatility being shown by Scott Moore in the field and the hot bat he's been swinging. He's eating Jay's lunch at this point.

Is Brian Roberts ever going to stop running? Do you think he's trying to get traded or what? He's practically screaming, "Hey Lou, I'll steal 100 for you is you want!" Enjoy the showcase while it lasts...

One thing you can learn from Spring Training was demonstrated yesterday. I do expect the Orioles to blow leads late and have to rally if they expect to win. Lance Cormier surrendered a four run lead in the 9th. I have to say I saw this plenty over the last couple of years when he was with the Braves. He's very inconsistent and prone to getting shelled. And he's really not a good pitcher.

Should I be reading anything into the fact that Luis Terrero is getting a lot of at bats and playing well while Tike Redman is hardly playing at all?

Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey both made errors in yesterday's game. Crap.

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Troy Patton, I predict, is going to be done for the year. I know I'm going out on a limb here. No shock at this point.

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I am a total Daniel Cabrera apologist but even I don't care that he walked nobody during 3 innings of work on Saturday.

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You can't really beat Thomas Boswell as far as baseball writing goes and it's especially enjoyable when he highlights my team. But Tom, Baltimore got 10 players back from the Tejada/Bedard trades, not nine.

My respect for Dave Trembley grows the more I hear about him.

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Finally, a story on Matt Wieters from the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

Thoughts on the Thumping

I don't put a lot of stock in Spring Training results and nobody should. But it was diappointing to see very little positive on the field, let alone the box score, as the O's dropped their spring opener 16-3 to the Marlins.

Adam Loewen couldn't find the plate. Adam Jones couldn't run the bases. Ramon Hernandez couldn't field. Not good.

One of the bright spots was Brian Roberts (of course). The O's have scouts in Mesa, Arizona looking at the Cubs and the Cubs had some scouts at yesterdays game in Ft. Lauderdale. They didn't cross the continent for sheer amusement, I assure you.

Jay Gibbons got 3 AB yesterday before he was lifted in the 8th and is back in the starting lineup today. Make no mistake, the front office is going to give him a lot of at bats this spring to see if he has anything left or if they just want to eat the remainder of that bad contract.

Rocky Cherry pitched two scoreless innings and struck out two. Another bright spot.

Lots more to watch...hopefully some of it looks better than this.

Base Hits: 2/28/2008

The Cubs and Mark De Rosa are all downplaying this situation but De Rosa will be undergoing a procedure to correct his irregular heartbeat. This may turn out to be nothing but it's worth watching. Obviously, if it's worse than they think, the Cubs may be more desperate to acquire Brian Roberts and MacPhail can extract a better haul of players. Speaking of which, this note.

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I like player blogs and look forward to more entries from Kevin Millar. Say what you will about Millar, I find his blog entertaining, informative and fairly candid. How many guys would admit that the losing wore him down mentally?

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So I'm listening to the first Spring Training game from the WHFS feed. It's great that the games have started but this game doesn't have much for us to cheer about this afternoon.

Adam Loewen walked 4 in 1+ IP and Ramon Hernandez has two errors. Hernandez threw the ball into left trying to throw out Hanley Ramirez at third and dropped the ball during a potential play at the plate.

Not a good sign from Loewen as he works his way back from injury.

Now where can I score some Esskay bacon in Atlanta?

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A story by Dan Connolly that ponders the possibility of Mark Texiera coming home to play for the Orioles in which Texiera says some flattering things about his hometown.

Oriole fans have harbored this false hope for a couple seasons but the bottom line is that Texiera is a nice guy and a fairly diplomatic fellow. I've heard similiar things out of his mouth about Atlanta since he arrived here last July. Here's an example.

ChopTalk: Your name was tossed around a lot at trade deadline time. What was your reaction when you heard Atlanta?

Mark Teixeira: I was excited. There are a lot of teams you may not want to be traded to, but Atlanta was definitely a team I was happy to come play for. I was here for college at Georgia Tech, and even spent a year (living) here after college. That made the comfort level that much greater. My wife, Leigh, and her family are from (Georgia, Habersham County north of Atlanta), and we both went to school here and still have friends living in Atlanta.

He has a lot of ties to this area as well. He's still a Scott Boras client. He's going to test free agency and will go to the highest bidder in all probability.

I'll call it now. If Texiera leaves Atlanta, he'll be wearing pinstripes in 2009.

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Oriole Central has a Spring Training roundup. Reading that post reminds me that Dave Trembley is looking to carry a 12 man pitching staff. As much as I hate having to carry so many pitchers, the unproven rotation and problematic arms in the pen make it unavoidable. Hopefully we can narrow that number down to 11, maybe 10, sometime this season.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against The Red Sox

It's kind of tough to tear down a team that just won the World Series twice in the last four seasons but I'll do my best...

1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit

Yes, he is going to be 41 at the beginning of the season but the loss of Curt Schilling from that rotation is going to hurt. Schilling had the second best ERA among Red Sox starters behind staff ace Josh Beckett and his loss leaves the rotation looking a bit thin. You don't believe me?

Dice K had a Mussina-esque 5.19 ERA after the All-Star break. Either he wore down or hitters started catching up with him. Or both.

Wakefield is a fine back of the rotation guy but is also getting old. He battled back problems last year and posted his worst ERA since 2004.

The loss of Schilling also puts a heavier load on young hurlers John Lester and Clay Bucholz. Guess how many starts these guys made last year? Only 14 combined. (Lester had 11, Clay only 3) They might turn out to be fine pitchers but you're asking largely unproven kids to provide at least 25 starts each on a contending team. Not really sure that's a great idea. It's no wonder the Sox signed Bartolo Colon. They're desperate for help.

2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth

Like Jorge Posada, Mike Lowell had a career year while in his mid-30's. Do you think a guy with a .280 career batting average is going to hit .324 again? No way. He'll probably hit in the .280 range and hit 20 homers but he is not going to be powering the Sox offense the way he did last year.

3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old

Jason Varitek will continue to decline this season as he has for the past two. He'll be 36 this year and barring a big fluke will be lucky just to be average at the plate.

Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters of this generation but he has never been one known for really taking care of himself. 2007 may have been the beginning of his decline years as he went from a feared hitter to being a good but ordinary slugger. This may sound crazy to say but it could be that Manny's days of clubbing 30+ homeruns are behind him.

4. The Ellsbury Enigma

Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so. Is that bad? Not at all. Is it significantly better than what you might get from Coco Crisp? Not really.

But this is what the Red Sox are facing. If Crisp doesn't win the starter's job in centerfield, he wants out of Boston. Do the Sox, World Series champs and 2008 contenders hand the job to a rookie and let the veteran go?

The Sox have to hope that Ellsbury delivers enough extra offense to offset Crisp's superior defense. Crisp has been one of the best in the AL during his career while Ellsbury really is not known for defense.

Either way, they will not be as strong in center ad they were last year.

5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?

Not only did Julio Lugo forget how to hit once he arrived at Fenway, his defense regressed as well. Did the big city pressure and contract mess with his head? The curse of Nomar? Whatever the case, look for Lugo to hit below .260 again. Maybe his fielding rebounds, maybe it doesn't.

History tells us that J.D. Drew should have a rebound of sorts this season. He tends to have a good season every other year and although he avoided major injury in 2007, you can't say that the Sox weren't disappointed by his paltry power numbers (.423 SLG and 11 homeruns, both career lows.) The fragile Drew will be 32 this season and may be breaking down early. Ironically, his career compares pretty favorably to Kirk Gibson (excepting Kirk Gibson prowess at steals). Guess at what age Gibson's body began to truly fail on him? That's right, age 32.

Conclusion

Let's be honest. The Red Sox have a lot of strengths. Their bullpen is outstanding, David Ortiz is still a fearsome slugger in his prime and they have the best young second baseman in the AL not named Cano.

However, age and injuries may catch up with them this year, as well as some unproven players in crucial roles in the rotation and in center.

They aren't going to run away and hide with the AL East title this year...

Next Up: The Case FOR Baltimore

Base Hits: 2/22/2008

Let's take a look at Sprting Training, shall we?

The best news I've seen come out of Spring Training has been the trimmer, healthier Ramon Hernandez. Great to see.

Not thrilled to see the injured, perhaps lost for the season, Troy Patton. It's nobody's fault but it still sucks. The race for the back of the rotation (and Steve Trachsel's chances to go north with the team) open up a lot now.

Good to see Brian Roberts back on the field. Get well, Brian!

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Keith Law conducted a chat on ESPN.com yesterday. He named Earl Weaver as the best tactical manager in baseball history. Also, he had this to say about Troy Patton:

steve (anaheim): Is Troy Patton done if he has a torn labrum or slap tear? Keep up the great work!

Keith Law: I wouldn't say done, but it's very bad news for Baltimore. Shoulder problems often lead to long-term velocity loss, and he can't afford that.

Eeesh.

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According to Roch, Jay Gibbons is crushing the ball and Mike Cuellar may come in to work with the pitchers.

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Speaking of Jay Gibbons, Weaver's Tantrum has a reflection on Jay Gibbons. It's brilliant.

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A bitter look back in time. Only bitter for O's fans though as Geoff Young takes a look back at the top Pacific Coast League prospects...from 1988. Guess who's number 3? Juan Bell. How many of you remember who Juan Bell was? Hard to remember how highly he was though of back then...

A fake prize to the person who can give me Juan's claim to fame in Oriole history.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against the Yankees

The Yankees are no longer invincible. As far as I can tell, it gets worse in the Bronx before it gets better.

1. Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

OK, Chien-Ming Wang appears to be a legitimate major league starter. But your ace? Outside of win totals (which vary greatly on run support) there is little difference between his 2007 performance and the performance of Baltimore's de facto ace Jeremy Guthrie. OK, that's a bit of a stretch but not a crazy comparison. Go look.

Andy Pettitte will be 36 this season and was a slightly better than average pitcher last season. He'll be average again (at best) and the Yankees will be thankful for it.

Mike Mussina is old and decrepit. He'll be lucky to post an ERA under 5.00 this season but the Yankees are leaning on him heavily and praying for a comeback season. Why?

Part of this is because of the kids projected to hold up the back end of the rotation. And they will be on strict innings limits according to Bob Klapisch of The Record (NorthJersey.com):

Consider the math. The Yankees have three rookie starters, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, all on a strict innings limit this season. Chamberlain will be capped at 140 innings, Hughes at 160, Kennedy at 180-190. Assuming 45 or so of Chamberlain's innings are in the bullpen -- he'll start the season as the eighth-inning guardian -- that leaves a glaring hole in the equation.

That means they're counting on Mussina to pitch close to 200 innings this season, something he hasn't done since 2003. If he can't do it, that means someone like Kei Igawa's going to have to pick up the slack. Ouch.

The back of the rotation will be some combination of the kids listed above who may be great pitchers someday. But Yankee fans will no be forgiving if they struggle early and the Yankee fans and press have ruined the confidence of even veteran pitchers.

Lots of questions even if the rotation is healthy.

2. Jorge Posada Falls to Earth

After A-Rod, Jorge Posada was the best Yankee batter and by a huge margin. Do you think he's going to hit .338 again? He had never even hit .290 before last season! A great season but that season is over. The best you are going to see from him is .275 with 20 homeruns. And for a 36 year old catcher, that's a stretch. Unless your name is Carlton Fisk, offensive prowess for catchers does not last past 35.

3. Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball

I love this one. In the short time this little blog has been in existence, I have beaten the drum about the Emporor's New Clothes that is Derek Jeter's defensive prowess. Finally, a study was done at Penn that named the three-time Gold Glove winner (Arrrgh! And Cal only got two? Arrrghh!) the worst defensive shortstop in the majors. Which is true and has been for 8 or 9 years now. Poor Jeter got his feelings hurt:

"Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Well Derek, the good ones choose the right spots to stand in. And everyone does have the same hitters running, over the course of a season. All the teams face essentially the same lineups over 162 games.

Pitching? I suppose if you had the same guys on staff for the last decade, that would be a valid argument. In 1999, roughly when you started to suck as a shortstop, the staff was Orlando Hernandez, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, David Cone and Hideki Irabu. I know Clemens and Pettitte came back last year but come on. The Yankee staff has always had pretty high turnover.

Yankee Senior Advisor Gene Michael had this to say:

"Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls."

Gene have you met Mr. Wang? Gene meet Mr. Wang. He works for you. He does nothing but induce grounders about 60% of the time. Oh, and here's Mr. Pettitte. He works for you too. He induces grounders at a 50% rate over the last 4 years.

Ditto for Clemens.

Look the stats reflect what the eye reveals. Jeter can't go left. I don't care how hard you hustle. Diving for a ball that dribbles into left center doesn't make you a better fielder. It just means you fail with style.

Anyway, I should just write a long involved post about this some other time. But don't expect a 34 year old Jeter to be any kind of effective fielder in 2008.

4. Who's On First?

Would you want this guy manning first base for your team?









What a goober.

Easily the most annoying Yankee of the 21st century. And I can't talk about him without thinking of Peter Pan. (OK, Peter Pan was Sandy Duncan but my point still stands. Right?)

This is the leading candidate. Giambi can't play the field anymore. He's just a roided out shell of his former self.

Shelley Duncan. He had a nice year for a bench player but don't expect that to translate into success as a starter. There is nothing is his past to suggest he'll repeat the slugging clinic he put on last year.

And he has a girl's name...


5. Melky's the Man?

For all the fawning the New York press does over this guy, you would expect him to be better.

            OPS
Cabrera    .718
Patterson  .690
 

Considering Corey Patterson's 2007 was viewed as a disappointment it's hard to see how Cabrera's marginally better bat was seen as a breakthrough. Equalizing for Patterson's defense and baserunning, I'd say they're pretty much even. You might even give the edge to Patterson. Maybe.

This wouldn't be a huge deal for the Yankees until you look at Johnny Damon's struggles, the offensive hole at first, a declining Posada and a decaying DH in Giambi. This outfield is not going to be very formidable at the plate in 2008.

Conclusion

If things are dicey early in the year, this team could literally implode. Youngsters manning crucial positions in the lineup and the pitching staff, surrounded by fragile old veterans who may not deliver the results their reputations promise.

The Bronx is burning indeed.

Next up: The Boston Red Sox

Evidently...

...the competition at shortstop is wide open.




"Esskay: We Were There For The Pubescent Years"

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against the Blue Jays

This is a tough one because the Blue Jays will be solid but not spectacular overall. Outside of their bullpen, there's nothing great about this team but there is very little bad about them.. What's that? They just signed the left side of the Cardinals infield? Players that contributed to a losing club and a third place finish in the woeful NL Central. OK, let's start there shall we?


1. David Eckstein is Playing Shortstop

Sparkplug? My hairy butt.

David Eckstein is one of the worst free agent signings the Jays have made in years. He is a big drop-off defensively from John McDonald (most other teams wanted to sign him to play second, not short) and hardly an upgrade offensively. He hit .300 last year but it was an empty .300. No power and very little patience at the plate. And that was in a weaker league, in the weakest division in baseball.

Toronto leadoff hitters only got on base at a .321 clip last season. Eckstein will be an upgrade in that sense but since so much of his OBP depends on his batting average, he's going to struggle to post an OBP in the .340 range. He'll be facing tougher pitching in the AL East than in the NL Central.

With the majority of Toronto starters being groundball pitchers, they will be watching a lot of grounders get through for singles to left center. I wonder what that will do for team chemistry.


2. Their Best Offensive Threat Is 46.

Frank Thomas is old. He's going to the Hall of Fame someday but in 2007 he just looked decrepit.

The only other legitimate offensive threat on the team is Alex Rios. The Jays are counting on an old, injury prone veteran to make this offense go. A risky move at best.


3. No Legitimate Catchers

Rick Dempsey's nephew will be 37 and finally started to hit the wall last season. He will be backed up by Rob Barajas who is a good backup catcher but he'll be called upon to carry more load than he should this season.


4. Injury Prone At The Corners

The Jays traded away the injury-prone Troy Glaus for an even more injury prone Scott Rolen. Rolen will be better defensively but they will lose some offense at the Hot Corner. And that's if he stays healthy all year. If he goes down, so will any offensive threat from third base.

1B Lyle Overbay is coming back from having a bunch of screws in his hand. There is no legitimate backup for him if he struggles to a .241 average like he did last season.


5. Legitimate But Injury Prone Rotation

Halladay and Burnett are studs but neither has a great track record of staying healthy. Last year was Burnett's turn as he only started 25 games. Both these guys need to start 30+ games for Toronto to finish above .500. They have some talented kids at the back of the rotation but...
Here's a look at the ERA's and FIP's from the primary starters last season:

                ERA   FIP
Halladay       3.71  3.65
Burnett        3.75  4.44
McGowan        4.08  3.82
Marcum         4.13  5.05
Litsch         3.81  5.23
 
   

Halladay and McGowan put up numbers that are legit. They truly pitched as well as their ERAs suggest. The rest? Looks like they were aided by a) good luck and b) great infield defense.

(What's FIP? Start here.)

The Jays had the best infield defense in the AL last year (by RZR rating) which greatly helped their staff of groundballers. Are they going to repeat that performance with Eckstein at short in place of Jason McDonald? I think not. Look for the back half of the rotation to suffer while working around all those extra outs.

Conclusion

Outside of a great bullpen (which will get stronger with the return of B. J. Ryan) there are not a lot of sure things here. You can't hang your hat of a strong lineup, killer rotation or stellar defense. They will do all things fairly well...if everything goes absolutely right! That's a big "if" to deal with.

Next up: The New York Yankees

Base Hits: 2/18/2008

Damn, I love Spring Training!

The Baltimore Sun has a nice article on Orioles top prospect Matt Wieters. Also, check out the great photos from Ft. Lauderdale. Ramon Hernandez does look to be in great shape this season. A nice little tour of Ft. Lauderdale stadium on the video clips as well. Makes you want to be there, huh?

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SS Alex Cintron signed a minor league contract with the Cubs. Another potential competitor for Luis Hernandez falls away.

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Adam Jones arrived early to Spring Training and is looking to win over his new teammates.


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Dave Stockstill's passport is going to be getting a good workout. And that's a good thing.

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A really good, if heartbreaking, article by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun on the 5th anniversary of the death of Orioles pitcher Steve Bechler.

5 Things to Watch in Spring Training

Pitchers and catchers report today baseball fans! Here's five things I'll be watching during Spring Training.

1. The Bullpen Auditions

With the acquisition of George Sherrill, the bullpen now has three spots locked up. (Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford being the others.) That means Rule 5 draftee Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry, Brian Burress, Kim Mickolio, Greg Aquino, Jim Hoey, Bob McCrory, Dennis Sarfate, maybe Esteban Yan and others will be involved in a Battle Royale for the last three or four spots in the bullpen. None of these guys could be any worse than the crew we had last season...I hope.

2. The Scott Moore Factor

Unless Scott Moore completely tanks in Ft. Lauderdale, he is gong to push for significant playing time and will possibly push some veteran right off the roster. But where will he play? If he shows a good glove at third, Melvin Mora will quickly find himself on the trading block. If the club gives him primary duties at first, Jay Gibbons won't get a chance to redeem himself this season.

3. The Young Arms

With Erik Bedard gone, there are two spots open at the back of the rotation for a young hurler to grab. (Let's not fool ourselves, if there are viable options among these rookies, Steve Trachsel is not going north. Not yet.) Troy Patton comes over from Houston with the best resumé. Garrett Olson, Matt Albers, Radhames Liz, and Jim Johnson will also get a look. Hayden Penn will have to prove he's healthy before he gets a real look.

4. The Least Repulsive Option At Shortstop

Luis Hernandez has a near lock on the shortstop job at this point but despite what happened last season, it's going to be ugly for him at the plate. That fact may open the door for Brandon Fahey should he swing the lumber this spring. If neither look good on offense, the play in the field may decide the case. If both look bad, it may get Freddie Bynum more playing time at short but I would expect him to still be a utility man.

5. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Part II

Unfortunately for Oriole fans everywhere, Paul Bako beat out Rule V pick Adam Donachie for this honor last season.

There's nowhere to go but up at this point. Former top prospect Guillermo Quiroz has the inside track but he's hardly a lock as he tries to recapture some of his lost potential. Chris Heintz played sparingly in Minnesota last season but has hit .313 against lefties in his career. Former big leaguer Ben Davis will be trying to get his career back on track and there is always the smallest chance that Matt Wieters will be so impressive that he makes the team, splitting time with the incumbent Ramon Hernandez. A real dark horse is IF Mike Costanzo who the Orioles acquired in the Miguel Tejada trade from Houston. He has been invited to report with pitchers and catchers to work out at the catcher position.

Top 5 Performances for Erik Bedard

Much in the way I did with Miguel Tejada, I decided to take a look back at at some of the highlights of Erik Bedard's career. Remember when you read this, he was a homegrown Baltimore Oriole. Thanks for the memories Erik.


#5 - September 2, 2004 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Toward the end of his rookie season, Erik Bedard put together his first great game. Bedard scattered 6 hits and worked himself out of a few jams over the course of the game. Twice, he had two runners on with one out and got out of the inning without allowing a run. Bedard would hold them to 1 run over 7 IP and the Orioles cruised to a 13-2 victory. It was a glimpse of things to come.

          IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR
Bedard     7.0    6   1   1    1   6   0

#4 - May 4, 2005 - Toronto Blue Jays

It looked like a mismatch for Bedard as he squared off against former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay. However, it was Bedard who was a mismatch for Blue Jay batters as he fanned 12 over the course of 8 innings. There were few jams to work out of this time. After putting two men on with one out in the first, Bedard proceeded to set down the next 9 batters in order including striking out the side in the top of the second. After allowing a walk to Corey Koskie in the 4th, he set the next 8 batters down in succession. It was a career high 12 strikeouts for Bedard as the O's roughed up Halladay and won 5-1.

         IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR
Bedard    8.0    4   1   1    2  12   0

#3 - June 21, 2006 - Florida Marlins

The Marlins were not a great team in 2006 but they were winners of nine straight as Erik Bedard took the mound at Camden Yards. But Bedard was dominating as no runner made it to second base until the 8th inning. He again struck out 12 including Miguel Cabrera three times. This was the second game in a string of seven straight starts that Bedard would win, lowering his ERA nearly a run and a half over the rest of the season. In a way, it was his coming out party.

          IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR
Bedard     8.0    2   0   0    0  12   0

#2 - July 7, 2007 - Texas Rangers

Against a lineup that would put 30 runs on the scoreboard against the O's later in the year, Bedard hurled a gem. He struck out a career high 15, walked none and gave up only two weak singles. Both baserunners were erased by double plays so Bedard faced the minimum. Bedard was rarely allowed to finish starts and this was his first (and only) complete game shutout. He finished the game strong by striking out the side in the bottom of the 9th.

          IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR
Bedard     9.0    2   0   0    0  15   0

#1 - June 27th, 2007 - New York Yankees

Just as the Yankees were beginning to catch fire and make a white-hot run at the AL East crown, Bedard sent them home with their tale between their legs. Facing off against a roided-up Roger Clemens, Erik threw down the gauntlet as he struck out Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez in succession to open the game. (Jeter and Rodriguez would whiff twice against our former ace that day.) Bedard held one of the most feared lineups in baseball scoreless for 7 innings before turning the game over to Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford to complete the shutout.

          IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR
Bedard     7.0    2   0   0    1   8   0

See you later Erik. Too bad we couldn't build a contender around you. When you face the Orioles this year, could you leave a hanging curveball over the plate every now and then? Thanks.

Base Hits: 2/12/2008

The Orioles have signed Steve Trachsel to a minor league deal. I don't mind this signing, especially since it's only a minor league contract. I like the idea of bringing in a veteran starter as insurance so you don't have to rush your young arms but I was not thrilled with the prospect of signing a guy like Josh Fogg to major league money to do it. A good low risk move that could prove to be a godsend come April.

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I was reading this story in the Sporting News and it mentioned something I've heard a lot lately. The conventional wisdom has the Orioles on their way to losing 100 games in 2008. I don't buy it. The Nationals were written off in this manner before 2007 and they didn't even lose 90. It won't be pretty but I don't think this team will be appreciably worse than last year. More on that later...

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J.R. House is reporting to Spring Training with the Houston Astros. I still don't think we gave this guy a fair shot.

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Quite a detailed look at the Erik Bedard trade at The Hardball Times. The bottom line is most thought Seattle gave up too much for him which, by reflexive property, means that we got the better of the deal on paper.

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Finally, a look at the Bedard trade from Baseball America. There's not much new here except for the detailed look at the prospects (besides Adam Jones) who Baltimore acquired in the deal.

Finally! Erik Bedard is a Mariner!

I will admit that I had mixed feelings about trading away Erik Bedard. I would have much rather seen him signed to a long term deal. The truth of the matter was, Bedard didn't want to stay through a rebuilding process and even if he did, there's no guarantee the Orioles will be good enough to contend in 4 or 5 years as the farm system is now. So he had to be traded and we had to get good return for him.

I think we did.

Further consolation is that Mariner fans hate this deal. A lot. That means it's a good trade for us, no?

The five new Orioles are as follows. You probably know their names by heart since the trade has been rumored since December. (!?!?!)

Adam Jones - CF - Adam "The Truth" Jones. Why the truth? Because the only thing we know for sure at this point is that Adam Jones speaks it.

Jones was obviously the key to this deal. He's the best young outfielder the Mariner's have and he's ready to play now. He hit over .300 and 25 homers in only 101 games at AAA Tacoma in 2007. Speed and power now patrol centerfield at Camden Yards. We haven't been able to say that since Brady Anderson was in his prime. At only 22, he could be a real special player.

What can we expect from him this season? Tons of strikeouts and flashes of brilliance.

George Sherrill - RP - He has a rep as a LOOGY but the numbers show he is more than that. He's kind of a flyball pitcher, not exactly the recipe for success at Camden Yards but he only gave up one homer away from pitcher friendly Seattle. Sherrill would have the inside track on the closer's job going into Spring Training.

Kameron Mickolio - RP - He's potentially major league ready at this point and commands closer type stuff. He rung up 28 Ks in 24 inning in AAA Tacoma last year and has 8.48 K/9 for his minor league career. He'll only be 24 and will join Jim Hoey as youthful candidates for the closer spot this season.

Chris Tillman - SP - Big righty, big strikeout guy. Only 19. He had issues giving up the long ball in High Desert last year. Tillman only went 6-7 with a 5.26 ERA but forget that. He was a bit unlucky. His FIP ERA at High Desert was 3.93. He struck out more than a batter an inning and induced grounders on 40% of all balls put in play. He was way better in July and August than he was in May and June. It's just the learning curve. Big upside. The #6 Mariner prospect on TopProspectAlert.com

Tony Butler - SP - Very young, very raw starting pitching prospect. Only 20, he struggled a bit at high A ball but misses lots of bats. He's a long way from taking the mound at OPACY. The #4 prospect in the Mariner system.

If he had to go, MacPhail did a good job of getting back a nice haul for Bedard.

Let the rebuilding begin.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against The Rays

These are the series of posts where I get to let my optimism run wild! No better time for them than the leadup to Spring Training.

Going into 2007, it was a big stretch to think that this team was gong to finish above .500 and maybe even steal their way into second place. This year, that's an Evel Knieval jumping the Snake River Canyon sort of leap. But this is baseball, where hope springs eternal. Anything can happen and as proof, I offer the 1989 Baltimore Orioles.

The first thing the Orioles will need is some help from the rest of the division. Some of the other teams have to underachieve or have really bad luck for Baltimore to get a shot.

I'll start by examining the issues facing the Tampa Bay Rays. This is a big step up for their organization as I simply dismissed them without comment last year. However, some of their minor league talent is coming of age and with the Orioles in full overhaul mode, we could be battling this team yet again just to escape the AL East cellar.

1. The Rotation Is a Question Mark After Kazmir

Scott Kazmir is an unquestionable stud. He's an ace on practically any team in the league. After that, you have James Shields who showed the ability to get guys out for the first time in his career. After that...Matt Garza? A guy with some promise but that 3.69 ERA he sported in Minnesota last year was a bit of smoke and mirrors. His FIP was 4.52 and he'll be facing better offenses more often this season. Edwin Jackson? His control makes Daniel Cabrera look like Bob Tewksbury. Their 5th spot in the rotation will be filled by unproven guys who make me feel much better about the back of our rotation.

2. Carl Crawford...and Then What?

Crawford is a star player but he's just about the only sure thing in the lineup. And even he is not the kind of hitter that can carry a team. He's the table setter. Rocco Baldelli is injury prone. Carlos Pena came out of nowhere to post MVP type numbers in 2007. Is he really going to repeat that performance? The only other batter with a track record is SS Jason Bartlett and his track record is that he's a good fielder who will hit weakly. This lineup could score a lot of runs but they're going to have to count on a lot of youngsters make giant strides to do so.

3. The Bullpen Stinks

You have to go a long way to outdo the stinkiness of the Oriole bullpen last season. You can smell the Tampa bullpen all the way up here in Atlanta as their relievers were worse by nearly half a run. Their 6.16 ERA was the worst in the majors. At least the Oriole had a couple guys who were decent last year (Walker and Bradford), someone to build a pen around. The Rays only had one reliever with an ERA under 4.00 all year (Juan Salas, who missed nearly two months with injury). They've got nothing. The Rays are trying to revamp their 'pen by bringing Troy Percival out of retirement and signing Kurt Birkins! Good luck with that chumps.

4. They Can't Catch The Ball

By any metric you want to use, the Rays were the worst defense in the American League. Their Fielding Percentage, RZR, DER, Plus/Minus...all of it rank dead last. Akinori Iwamura was the worst defensive 3B in the AL last year. Moving him to 2B will help the offense but it won't do anything for the defense. Bartlett at short will help but he was worse than Miguel Tejada last year. Dioner Navarro is not a great defensive catcher and is unlikely to get better. The only above average fielder outside of Carl Crawford (Delmon Young) was traded away. It's ugly.

5. The Key Contributors on Offense...Will Be Kids

Evan Longoria is penciled in as the starting 3B. He may be a great player someday but he has never had a major league at bat. Even Dustin Pedroia struggled the first half of 2007. Navarro is not going to improve much. Only B.J. Upton could be reliably counted on to contribute significant offense among the young players. I think the growing pains will hinder the Rays offense for at least half the season.

Conclusion

It's kind of a chic pick to say that the Tampa Bay Rays will finally take over at least fourth place in the Al East (if a pick for 4th place can be chic). I don't see it. Baltimore would have to lose 100 games for the Rays to overtake them.

I see very little pitching, very little defense and an inconsistent offense.

By the way, no team has changed its name in the last 50 years and finished with a winning record the next year.

Get back into the cellar!

Next up: Toronto

Base Hits: 2/6/2008

With all the trades going down this offseason, I decided to add a few modules to track how all these trades are working out for the Baltimore Orioles. I am measuring them in Win Shares accumulated after the trade by the players involved and then showing an advantage to one team or the other. What's a Win Share (WS)? More on that can be found here.


For perspective, in the ill-fated Glen Davis trade, the players Baltimore traded away (Finley, Harnisch, Schilling) went on to accumulate 437 WS while Glen Davis contributed a meager 12. That would be a 425 WS advantage for Houston!

And that would be the standard for a bad trade.

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Jim Palmer just won a malpractice suit against an opthamologist who, among other things, tore Palmer's retina during cataract surgery. Eeesh.

*****

The big club could take a lesson from one of its minot league affiliates. The Frederick Keys have been voted by Frederick Magazine readers as one of the best entertainment values in town. Why? In part because they have not raised ticket prices in eight years.

*****

I keep hearing the Orioles might trade Erik Bedard. Could this possibly be true?

*****

Former Oriole Javy Lopez is back with the Braves trying to resurrect his major league career.

Book Review: The Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers

The offseason is when I usually do my baseball reading so I figured it would be interesting to write my Oriole-centric observations of these books. Got it? Good.

Bill James breaks the book down into decades and determines the best managers of each decade and then tells you about their styles, tendencies, innovations and the like. There were really great writeups on two Oriole managers: Ned Hanlon and Earl Weaver.

Everybody knows Earl Weaver but do you know Ned Hanlon? Ned Hanlon managed the great Oriole teams of the 1890's, back when the O's were still a National League team and winning pennants like mad.

Anyway, James details how Hanlon's influence is still felt in the game today and can trace the lineage of influence back from current mangers to Hanlon. For instance, Tony La Russa played for Dick Williams, who in turn played for Walter Alston, who played for Frankie Frisch, who played for John McGraw, who played for Ned Hanlon on the old Baltimore Orioles.

Furthermore, you can trace the "lineage" of many Oriole managers of the modern era back to Hanlon and the Baltimore Orioles of the National League. Earl Weaver, Paul Richards, Hank Bauer, Joe Altobelli and Davey Johnson all spring from Hanlon's disciples. It a tangible link between the Orioles of the 19th century and the club that was reborn in 1954.

The analysis of Earl Weaver is one of the most entertaining reads I've had in awhile. Weaver was dedicated to the idea of platooning players, this we all know. What I didn't know was after the advent of the DH, Weaver would routinely carry only 9 pitchers on the roster so he could carry 16 hitters to fuel his various platoons!

To Weaver, it was all but impossible to get every situation covered with just 25 men on the roster. It wasn't a question of having 25 men and only 18 of them playing; if he'd had 30 men, he'd have started pinch hitting in the 4th inning, and he'd have used all 30.

Truer words were never written.

Weaver was also a huge proponent of the big inning and hated giving up outs. His success in this area drove the sacrifice bunt to near extinction in the American League.

But my favorite assessment was this:

Weaver wasn't interested in what a player couldn't do. He was interested in what a player could do. If he can't hit a breaking pitch, you don't play him against Bert Blyleven. If he can't run, you pinch run for him-but you don't let that stop you from developing what the player can do. It's the things that a player can do that will win games for you.

Isn't that great? It's this characteristic that I see in Dave Trembley. Sam Perlozzo used to worry about his player's flaws or the type of player he felt was missing from the lineup. Trembley isn't like that. He needed a cleanup hitter and turned to Kevin Millar, not because he is a classic cleanup hitter but because he was the best suited for the job of the players on the roster. He didn't worry about Corey Patterson's strikeouts and low OBP, he saw his speed and bunting ability and stuck him in the 2 slot to good effect.

Anyway, I recommend the book to anybody. A great read and an interesting look at how the game has evolved over the last 120 plus years.

Base Hits: 2/4/2008

Keith Law on ESPN.com has released his list of 100 top prospects in baseball and there are a few (OK, three) Orioles on the list.

Matt Wieters is listed as the #14 prospect in all of baseball and the top catching prospect on the list. No big surprise there.

Mildly surprising is the inclusion of Nolan Reimold at #39 and the fact that he is listed as the #5 corner outfield prospect in baseball. Reimold has power and, after watching the AFL Championship game, more speed than I had previously given him credit for. But he has so little to show for it on the field, I was surprsied Law thinks so highly of him. I'll take it though. Maybe he's better than I thought.

The other Oriole on the list is SP Chorye Spoone at #96. Says Law:

Spoone has the potential for three plus pitches, with an explosive fastball with good bore that generates a lot of groundballs. Definite sleeper.

Only having 3 prospects out of a list of 100 is not great but we must crawl before we can walk...


*****

Some minor league signings for the O's last week including the return of relief pitcher Esteban Yan. Yan's signing has caused some minor howling in the O's blogosphere but it's only a minor league contract and, hey, sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle. But in reality, this guy's never going to see the major league roster. Catcher Chris Heintz has a better shot at seeing significant playing time in 2008 than Yan.

*****

Erik Bedard is likely to be traded this week, blah, blah, blah...

*****

Enchanting Sunshine went north to Baltimore to meet some of the '83 Orioles. Here's the story.

*****

A very good, very concise guide to Oriole Spring Training that I not only enjoyed but may render a post I was working on completely redundant. Good stuff.

10 Days until Pitchers and Catchers Report