Good Cabrera vs. Bad Cabrera

I wouldn't dig in there if I were you. I don't know where it's going. I swear to God.
- Crash Davis

I don't think all these PITCHfx posts will have the the same title but the title certainly fits for Danny.

Today, I'll be looking at Daniel's poor start on April 2nd and his fine (well, better) start on April 12th. The bonus here is that he pitched both games against the Tampa Bay (devil)Rays so both games are against nearly identical lineups.

First, his pitch movement on both starts:

Two things are immediately noticeable. First, the fact that he threw almost nothing but fastballs his second time seeing the Rays lineup (which we already knew). Second, his fastball was much more lively during the second game. The horizontal break on 4/12 is nearly five inches more severe. And while his slider was quite lively during his first start is was nearly straight in the second. (Those blue plots on the lower right on the second chart can't possibly be changeups. I'm assuming they are curveballs mislabeled by the PITCHfx system.

Now the placement of Cabrera's pitches. I've added a very rough estimation of the strike zone to these plots.

Well, it's no wonder that great breaking slider didn't help him much in the first start; he couldn't control it at all!

Obviously, his pitch location is a little more focused during the second game. Yes, he's throwing more strikes but when he misses it's not by as much or it seems to be with purpose as he misses to particular spots.

Tampa's lineup is very lefty heavy so he's missing away or up and away from Carl Crawford and the like. But he's not afraid to come inside with that fastball against righties either which has to be pretty intimidating.

Is this why he's had some of his best performances against lineups loaded with lefties? When he's on that 94 mph fastball breaks with some significance away from lefties inducing weak waves, foul balls and weak grounders to short. If it breaks inside on righties, better hitters can still turn on those pitches or more easily identify it as a ball.

So is this the new (old) formula for Danny? Even in the second game he couldn't place his changeup for strikes at all. With very limited use he was able to get his slider over but his fastball, even with nothing else contrasting it, is nearly unhittable.

The Tampa Bay announcers observed (correctly) that Cabrera is a horrible fielder and they didn't know why more teams didn't bunt on him to put more pressure on his defense skills. The problem is, that fastball is so lethal and lively that it's hard to even bunt the ball! The Rays tried that night and couldn't lay down a single successful bunt in fair territory, not even for a sacrifice.

Rick Kranitz has a reputation for focusing on what his pitchers do best and not trying to make them do things they aren't good at. With a fastball so wicked, maybe he's letting Daniel throw his best pitch almost exclusively and just trying to tweak the accuracy. It makes sense. If a guy hasn't mastered control of his best pitch, what are the odds he's going to be able to learn a new one?

And some wildness helps Cabrera. He got a ton of strikes on balls he threw out of the strike zone.

This is all probably much ado about nothing (with Cabrera it usually is) but I'd be curious to see what strategy he takes against another lefty heavy lineup...the Yankees...on Friday.

Moral Victory?

Last night's game would qualify for one of Ben's cocentric Circles of Losing. It would be Circle 1 - the Moral Victory. (Further Dante infused Orioles reading over at Oriole Central here.)

Adam Loewen was not bad last night and he has improved with every start. His stuff is electric, not in pure heat but in movement. And after a disastrous first inning, he settled down and (with some help from his defense) put up zeroes for the next 5 innings. A step in the right direction. Loewen has improved with each start.

Jim Johnson looks like a seasoned pro on the mound. He mixes his pitches, keeps the ball down in the zone, works fast and isn't afraid to let his defense work behind him. He looks like a veteran at the age of 24 and he might not go back to Norfolk at all this season.

Lots of singles last night. Without some extra base hits, they're going to struggle in close games. Sorry if I'm stating the obvious but the offense is beginning to look a lot like the power-starved version from last year.

Flashback: 1994

Not much to comment about on last night's shelling outside of "Get used to it". It's going to happen a lot this year in between the encouraging parts.

Today, the cover of Outside Pitch from one of the last games I went to at Camden Yards before I moved away. Coverboy Chris Sabo? Really? And Leo Gomez? And is the Kid Correspondent interviewing this guy or these guys? (click on the picture for larger version)

Base Hits: 4/15/2008

Is anybody else having as much fun as I am? I got to watch the Baltimore Orioles play the Blue Jays for 1st place in the AL east tonight. And they won. I keep saying it; enjoy it as long as it lasts.

13 hits and only four runs? Not good. Adam Jones looked great last night. So did Matt Albers. Will he force his way into the rotation?

*****

OK. Brian Burres data:

             AVG   OBP   SLG
1st PA in G   .256  .344  .421
2nd PA in G   .301  .400  .393
3rd+ PA in G  .340  .411  .490

See? First time through the order, he's fine. A nice swingman and long reliever. Nothing to be embarrassed about.

*****

Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum will be taking a hiatus from the Oriole blogging as he hikes from Georgia to Maine on the Appalachian Trail!

Good luck to Desert O on his journey, that is no easy undertaking. You can follow his progress on the trail at his other blog, right here.

Blackbird Rising will be keeping Weaver's Tantrum warm until Desert O's return.

*****

Welcome back Gabe Kapler! A look at Kapler's improbable success early this season over at FanGraphs.

I was stationed in Jacksonville when Gabe Kapler played for the AA Jacksonville Suns and my wife and I had a lot of fun watching those games. There were a few players on that team who ended up playing in the majors (Matt Anderson, Robert Fick, Dave Borkowski, Willis Roberts, Jose Macias) but only Francisco Cordero and Dave Roberts have gone on to have any careers of note. But I would have sworn that Gabe Kapler was going to be a star. Some Kapler stats from 1998 at the age of 22: 139 games, .322 AVG, 28 HR, 47 doubles, 146 RBI.

I've always pulled for Gabe and he's probably the only Red Sox player I was genuinely happy for when they won the World Series.

*****

Finally, a nice pull (again) for Anthony over at Oriole Post as he plays five questions with nobody special. Only Brooks Robinson!

Millar photo courtesy of Reuters

Burres....To The Pen!

Just a quick thought on yesterday's game. I am a big fan of Brian Burres but have always thought the place for him to be most effective is the bullpen. And everytime he has an outing like yesterday, he'll start to convince me I'm wrong for four innings and then confirm my assertion in the 5th.

He's a fine pitcher and an asset to the organization but he has to go back to the pen at the first opportunity. He's just more help out there and I'm going to prove it....

Feels like 1989. The Blue Jays are coming to town and we're going to duke it out for first place...

I like Guillermo Quiroz. He's a good backup...

Hey Don Geronimo! Happy Trails...

They Did It Again...

Before Friday night, Carlos Pena was o-5 with four strikeouts against Jamie Walker. Oh, how times have changed.

First, here's the break on the pitches by Walker to Pena in the fateful 7th on Friday night.

The graph stands in counterpoint to Roch Kubatko's assertion that Jamie hung a breaking ball to Pena. The ball broke at least as well as anything else he threw that night. Pena just crushed a good pitch.

Saturday was a different story. Walker threw a belt-high fastball on the inside part of the plate and Pena turned on it and lined it into the rightfield stands. I suppose he was trying to sneak one by but I'm guessing he wanted to keep that ball down.

(As an aside, I wasn't the only one who thought Roch was being snarky with Jamie Walker. The comments on that blog entry later in the day had many replies remarking about the same thing.)

But the Orioles were not to be denied tonight as Ramon Hernandez out-Pena-ed the Rays, smashing a Dan Wheeler fastball over the leftfield fence to give the O's a 3-2 with 2 out in the top of the ninth.

Hernandez is only batting .194 but he's making it count. He is second on the team with 7 RBI this season.

Daniel Cabrera gave one of those performances that will break your heart later in the season. An outing like that makes you start believing. More on that later...

With the win, the Baltimore Orioles retain sole possession of first place in the AL East.

Terror in Tampa and Roch Kicks 'Em When They're Down

Owwwch! Ouch..quit it!

Growing pains exacted excruciatingly by Carlos Pena and friends.

The Good: Jeremy Guthrie pitched well and the Baltimore Oriole bats were alive against Jamie Shields, a good young pitcher.

The Bad: The defense (more on that later), the bullpen and the Oriole offense not putting the game away when they had a chance.

Anyway, a rare cheap shot from the keyboard of Roch Kubatko and it was directed at Jamie Walker:

While challenging a Sun reporter in the middle of the clubhouse last week, reliever Jamie Walker said something about how it’s fine if the media wants to rip him after he messes up, “but leave my teammates alone.”

We won’t rip you, Jamie, but no more meatballs to Carlos Pena. Please. Find something else on the menu.

That situation screamed for you last night. Two men on base, a three-run lead to protect and a left-handed batter at the plate. And you hang a curveball. And a lead disappears. And a losing streak reaches three games.

I vote that we worry less about what's in the papers and more about finishing off opponents...

Walker gets paid to retire those guys and bridge the gap to George Sherrill.

Ouch. We're not going to rip you Jamie but now...we're going to rip you.

Kubatko seemingly has had these criticisms in his head, if not on his hard drive, and was waiting for the first time Walker screwed up to use them. That's fine. It's kind of like a a revenge plunking, looking out for one of his Baltimore Sun teammates. (It was Dan Connolly who got ripped by the way. Roch never wants to say his name.)

But I don't think Roch watched the game last night. Walker came in with one out and got Akinori Iwamura to hit a soft grounder to shortstop. But Luis Hernandez booted the ball off his glove and then fumbled the ball around so long he was unable to make a throw. The hometown scorer gave Iwamura a hit but that was an error. It should have been two outs with nobody on with Carl Crawford coming up. Crawford hit the first pitch for a weak Texas Leaguer to shallow center. If Luis Hernandez had taken a good route to the ball or if Adam Jones had been playing centerfield last night, that may have been the third out of the inning.

Now, to this comment: "And you hang a curveball." Dead wrong. It was a good pitch. It broke great and was placed right where Pena had swung through one for a strike two pitches before. Pena was just on fire and hit a good pitch. (Likewise, he hit a great pitch from Guthrie for an opposite field homerun. Sick. Doubly painful that the Orioles could've signed him for a song before the 2007 season.)

Jamie Walker had some bad luck and gave up a homer to a slugger who he shouldn't have had to face. The team lost the game last night Roch, not Walker alone. Again, I understand you're protecting your co-worker but it's a real cheap shot. And your motives are transparent. And you're dead wrong.

Now that that's done...Let's go O's!

A Quick One...

"The ball was getting away from me, and I couldn't figure out my release point. ... "

- Adam Loewen




Release point of fastballs thrown by Jeremy Guthrie on Sunday and Adam Loewen yesterday:





Pretty easy to quantify. Guthrie's release point is fairly clustered while Loewen's looks like a Rorschach Test. Repeatability is so important in pitching. At least Loewen is cognizant enough to know exactly what he's doing wrong.

No Tase Yo, Bro

A great post by Matt Taylor at Roar From 34 about Orioles first base coach John Shelby and his ties to the glory days in Baltimore.

I have found it ironic that since John Shelby was hired that our first base coach and our third base coach, Juan Samuel, were both on the field the last time the Orioles won the World Series...but that Samuel was on the losing end of things with the Phillies.

*****

Tampa Bay Rays reliever Al Reyes (perhaps their best reliever) was arrested early Friday morning after an altercation at a Tampa nightclub. Reyes was punched in the face and after bouncers grabbed the man, Reyes started swinging his arms at anybody near him and spat blood at bystanders as well. ("Spanky" Huff was right. The nightlife is much better in Tampa. I never used to get blood spit on me in Fells Point...)

But there's more...

...Reyes got into a fight with another man, Eduardo Mora...

Mora...hmmmm. Could Melvin Mora have sent one of his relatives to provoke a known drunken hothead so Melvin would not have to face him this weekend? Coincidence?

Further investigation shows that Melvin is 2-4 with a homer against Al Reyes in his career ruining potential conspiracy theory...

*****

SC of Camden Chat has his nominations for the 2008 Oriole Magic Mix Tape. Brilliant. And SC has been doing regular posts about the O's minor league teams that provide a quick one-stop shop update for the Baby Birds.

*****

No Scott Kazmir, no Matt Garza, no Cliff Floyd, no Rocco Baldelli, probably no Al Reyes, perhaps no Willie Aybar...a good opportunity to put a hurtin' on the Ray. Let's go O's!

*****

So for this week's version of Song of the Week, I felt like going for a little jazz. This is the John Coltrane Quartet performing "Afro Blue". You have to get past the credits and the cheesy jazz critic leaning on the piano and smoking his pipe but besides that it is outstanding. Known mostly for his work on the tenor sax, Coltrane take a swing with the soprano sax on this one but this ain't no Kenny G! The rest of the quartet (McCoy Tyner (p), Jimmy Garrison (b) and Elvin Jones (d)) were outstanding musicians in their own right but quite underrated with Coltrane looming so large. Have a great weekend!

Good Guthrie vs. Bad Guthrie

This is my first attempt at doing some analysis using the PITCHfx data that can be found on MLB.com. What is PITCHfx? These are systems that have been installed at all ballparks in MLB that give deeper information on pitching. More on that over here if you care how the data is acquired.

What can this tell data tell us? I don't know but I have some and I'm going to find out using Jeremy Guthrie as a Guinea Pig since his first two starts were at home and they were very different in their results. As you can see (and as you probably remember), his first start was pretty bad and his second start was pretty good.

So here's Jeremy Guthrie, first the data from his Opening Day start where he struggled and the data from last Sunday's game where he pitched quite well.

These charts show his pitch movement. The first one is from Opening Day (Bad Guthrie) the one below it is the game on April 6th (Good Guthrie). Measurements are in inches.




Even though I don't have these charts on the exact same scale (got to do that next time) you can clearly see that Guthrie's fastball was not nearly as lively on Opening Day as it was last Sunday. His changeup and slider had comparable movement in both outings which explains why he threw a whole lot of sliders on Opening Day; his fastball was relatively straight. (On a side note, look at how Guthrie's fastball breaks up and in against righthanded batters when it's got good movement. Probably one reason righties only OPS'ed .666 against him last year. Also, look at how his changeup breaks; it's almost exactly like his fastball, just a little less "up" break on it. He doesn't throw it much but that's got to be a tough pitch for batters to adjust to since it must look just like his fastball out of his hand.)

Now a look at the pitch placement. Again, Opening Day on top. This time measurements are in feet.




Again, the first thing you notice is the differences in the fastballs. Guthrie's placement of his fastball is pretty erratic in the first game. Fastball were missing inside and outside, sometimes more than a foot off the plate. In the second game that fastball is being thrown for strikes.

Also, while his slider was live in both games, he had trouble getting it over for strikes. Lots of sliders went too far outside in that first game.

So, when Guthrie was more successful, he had:

A) a livelier fastball, not in terms of speed but in movement.
B) better control of his fastball and secondarily, his slider.

I thought the problems with his fastball might be related to the weather but the weather was equally bad in both games. (55 degrees, drizzle vs. 52 degrees, rain). His release points were fairly consistent. It appears he was just a little off but maybe more data in upcoming starts will point to something.

Here's hoping he has that fastball working for him on Friday in Tampa!

(I can't wait until Daniel Cabrera has one of his rare fantastic outings and it can be compared to one of his "normal" outings...)

Hey...Wha' Happen'd?

There weren't a lot of optimists going into 2008. Hell, in the Orioles blogosphere it was only my lukewarm assertion that the team wouldn't be worse than last year and James Baker of Oriole Magic believing that the pitching staff would surprise.

Now, the Orioles are giving us an unexpected dose of joy in early April and giving other AL teams fits.

The Mariner fans are disconsolate after their unexpected sweep at the hands of the Orange & Black.

Lookout Landing:

I'm pretty sure this entire series was George Sherrill giving an extended one-finger salute to everyone who thought the Bedard trade was simply exchanging a talented young outfielder for an established ace. Guess what? It hurt the bullpen too, and while Eric O'Flaherty isn't nearly as bad as he's looked so far, he's still a substantial downgrade.

U.S.S. Mariner

Early trade results: Baltimore acquired three saves, a couple of base hits, and some good outfield defense in exchange for a bad hip. Advantage, Orioles.

We've actually struck a little panic into the hearts of opposing fans. A nice little moment.

So how are they doing it? First is obviously the very excellent work of the bullpen. Now, we saw this to a lesser extent last year but the workload was too much and various relievers began to break down.

I checked the stats and unlike last year at this time, Baltimore relievers are not leading the league in innings. They are ranked 16th in the league so it's a pretty average workload. The starters will need to be eating more innings going forward if this momentum is to continue but they have done enough thus far, usually getting through 6 innings on average.

Aubrey Huff has gotten off to a quick start, Luke Scott has been a huge upgrade in left, Luis Hernandez has some clutch hits (and is hitting .364), Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis are...well, themselves.

*****

The O's also seem motivated by all the bad press they heard in the preseason. Even this paragraph by Dan Connolly in the Baltimore Sun on Monday got them fired up.

Here's the deal. This team isn't close to the ones of the late 1970s and early 1980s that helped energize this city. There's still plenty of reason to believe it will be the worst to wear Orioles on a road jersey since 1988.

Jamie Walker reportedly took Connolly to task in the locker room and several of his teammates weren't too pleased either. Cheap "us vs them" tactics for motivation? By any means necessary...

*****

I often beat myself up over my writing on this blog, specifically typos and spelling errors I don't catch at first glance.

So it make me feel better when others screw up facts and grammar.

This was on Yahoo last night previewing today's game. (It has since been corrected...)

The Baltimore offense has gotten a boost from two relative newcomers. Offseason acquisition Luke Scott homered Tuesday and is 9-for-14 with four RBIs in the last four games. Huff, acquired from Tampa Bay in mid-July, has two homers and 11 RBIs - four on Tuesday as he matched a career high with four hits.

Huff was acquired by Houston from Tampa Bay in July 2006. The Orioles signed Huff in the offseason.

From Amber Theoharis' blog on MASN (not picking on you Amber, enjoy your stuff!)...

We've all be tainted by the Orioles teams of the past 10 years.

No further explanation necessary...

And on Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech stated that Brian Burress had gone 7+ innings when we all know that he only went 6+.

I don't know. Knowing the pros make errors too makes me feel a little better about my foibles. But not really.


Luke Scott photo credited to the AP

The Truth Is Sleeping

Just a quick note. This is Adam Jones picture on Yahoo Sports:


Did they take this picture on the plane ride back from Venezeula? How could this be allowed? Is this narcolepsy?

Dempsey's Army demands a retake with pupils visible.

Minor Miracles

I am not convinced that he is what he was billed to be (a slick fielding, light hitting shortstop) but Luis Hernandez is starting to win me over a little. His fielding has been great and he's up there at the plate working the count. He's performing in the field and buying into the team philosophy of hitting. He's trying and until we have a better option, he may work out after all.

(edit: It's Sunday now and I'm ready to love this guy again. Walk off singles will do that for your credibility...)

*****

Matt Wieters homered twice in his debut for the Frederick Keys and Jake Arrietta threw four innings allowing 1 run. Nice start for the 2007 draft class. On the other had, Billy Rowell had to be removed from the game after pulling up lame running to first.

*****

LaTroy Hawkins, welcome back to the AL East.

       G  IP  H  BB  K  ER    ERA

Hawkins   2   2  8   0  0   7  31.50

*****

Brooks Robinson's statue was unveiled in York, PA this weekend. I won't go on a rant but if you are the Baltimore Orioles, you don't have a ton of immortals like the Yankees or the Cubs do. It a pretty clear Holy Trinity of 33rd St of Brooks Robinson, Jim Palmer and Cal Ripken. All should be immortalized in bronze out on Eutaw St.

*****

Sam Perlozzo spoke to reporters on Friday and said that he was put in a "no-win situation" here in Baltimore.

Was he in a no-win situation like Dave Trembley is now? Better or worse?

His sad-sack loser ways seem to be rubbing off on the Mariners...

*****

After that Opening Day loss to Tampa Bay, who thought this team would be 3 games over .500 at any point during this season? Anyone? Not even me. But I'll enjoy it while I can.

The Orioles have to get some starters going deeper into these games or we'll be looking at 2007 all over again. (edit: They did. Jeremy Guthrie gave them 7 strong.)

And I don't get how anyone can't like Kevin Millar. he's single-handedly bringing back Oriole Magic...

*****

Picked up some beer from Clipper City today. I couldn't find any of their lighter fare so I picked up a 12 pack of their Heavy Seas series. Kind of heavy beers for baseball season but it's chilly and rainy in Atlanta this weekend so the Winter Storm tasted pretty good watching the Oriole win.

*****

This is too funny.

*****

Don't look now, the Baltimore Orioles are in first place.

More Prospects...

After reading Alex Eisenberg's article in The Hardball Times that featured Chorye Spoone, I decided to check out his blog to see if any other Oriole prospects were mentioned.

Among guys he sees as potential breakout players (meaning Top 10 prospects) this season are Frederick Keys pitcher David Hernandez and soon to be Key Bobby Henson.

Hernandez was certainly not on my radar but indeed had a solid but inconsistent year. Henson is only 20 and tore it up as an Ironbird last season. Heaven knows we could use all the middle infield prospects we can get.

Recent acquisition Chris Tillman is also featured as one of the most underrated prospects in baseball.

*****

The new baseball season is getting me thirsty for some beer from Maryland. No, not Natty Boh. I can get Clipper City brews down here, maybe I'll go pick up a 12 pack this weekend. Anybody out there drink Clipper City? Recommendations?

*****

A quick thought on Tampa Bay: I watched the Wednesday game again last night, at least the parts I missed. I will reiterate that I don't see how the Rays are going to take a giant leap forward this season until they can improve their defense. Especially up the middle. Errors, knocking the ball around, dropping balls before the throw...stuff that gives a mediocre lineup like Baltimore too many chances to beat you. What's going to happen against really good teams?

*****

I've got some ideas on deeper analysis for the team so I'm going to go work on those now. With no game last night, pretty slow for Orioles news.

Here's the Song of the Week feature I'm going to start up. Nothing to do with the Orioles at all, just some of my favorite bands/songs as a diversion.

This week, everybody's favorite Indie rock kings from Manitoba, The Weakerthans. This is "A Civil Twighlight" from their latest album "Reunion Tour". Enjoy.




The Weakerthans

The Enigma Named Daniel Cabrera

I won't go on and on about Daniel Cabrera but the most disturbing thing about his performance last season was all the homers he gave up. For all the faults Cabrera has, the one thing he was really good at was striking out people and keeping the ball in the park.

sdfsdfsdf

Cabrera gave up two homers last night which does not bode well for his prospects this season. Only one game, yes, but out of character for the pitcher we knew before 2007.

I checked HitTrackerOnline and the Cliff Floyd homer was one they characterize as a "Just Enough" homer so you can give Daniel a little bit of a pass; maybe it was bad luck. But the Carlos Pena homer was way back there.

Just something to think about.

asd

*****

Alex Eisenberg tells you damn near everything you need to know about O's pitching prospect Chorye Spoone...at least everything about his pitching. Mechanics, stats, mentality...he's very thorough and there's some video. Good stuff.

*****

The Win Probability Graph from last night's game, courtesy of FanGraphs:

*****

The performance of the bullpen has been encouraging (0.00 ERA through two games) but let's not forget that the bullpen ERA through the first two games of 2007 was an excellent 2.09. And we all remember how that turned out.

*****

Sam Perlozzo is returning to Camden Yards as a coach for the Seattle Mariners.

Dan Connolly asked him about the Mother's Day Massacre against Boston last season:

Attempting to protect his inexperienced right-hander who had thrown 91 pitches, Perlozzo pulled Guthrie for setup man Danys Baez and then closer Chris Ray."I was totally taking care of [Guthrie]. I wanted him to be a good pitcher. I didn't want to blow him out," Perlozzo said. "I had the back end of my bullpen with a five-run lead and one out. How could you make a mistake there?"

He still doesn't get it. Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford both made more relief appearances in 2007 than any reliever in the 54 year history of the Baltimore Orioles (81 and 78 respectively). On May 13th, the day in question, it was the 19th relief appearances for both Danys Baez and Chris Ray and it was only the 38th game of the season.

Both these guys were on a pace to appear in 81 games in 2007! Those are crazy numbers! Perlozzo rode his bullpen hard and put them away wet. Ray had never been made more than 61 appearances in a season. Do you think this workload may have had something to do with his eventual injury? Baez wasn't that good to begin with but he too was overworked and overexposed.

asd

Now, which was worse? Letting Guthrie finish the game and resting your exhausted bullpen or bringing in the overworked hurlers?

Glad you're gone Sam. You may have been a good guy but you were a lousy manager.

*****

I sponsored the Scott Moore page over at Baseball-Reference.com. It will expire soon but I sponsored Brian Burres last year. Yes, I'm desperately cheap...

Base Hits: 4/2/2008

Patrick Smith who covers the Orioles for Bugs and Cranks makes an interesting observation that Luke Scott strode to the plate on Monday to the song "I Wanna Be Your Dog" by The Stooges. Not your typical ballpark music to be sure...

*****

Anthony has some nice pics of the Orioles FanFest from this past weekend over at Oriole Post.

*****

Speaking of nice pics, The New York Times has a great slideshow uncovering "The Unseen Yankee Stadium".

*****

Misplaced optimism abounds on the Oriole Blogosphere (most of it right here) and I love The Wayward O's analogy of the youthful Orioles as cuddly baby polar bear.

*****

Ben reads between the lines over at Oriole Central and suspects we'll see Mike Costanzo in the majors sooner than many expect.

*****

Oriole Trade Monitor Update: I'm taking down the Corey Patterson trade as it appears to have reached its conclusion. Unless Nate Spears catches fire and actually makes the Cubs roster at some point in the next two years, the scoreboard reads Corey Patterson 22 Win Shares, Nate Spears and Carlos Perez 0 WS between them.

A fine trade for Patterson who delivered stellar defense, great base running and a serviceable, if inconsistent bat in center for two seasons. O's win this one hands down

April Fool's Damn It...

Well, you saw a genuine reaction there. I completely fell for it.

In my defense so seemingly did The Hardball Times. Anyway...

I have kept this blog really Oriole-centric over the first year plus that I've been pecking away at the keyboard. I'm changing the focus just a little or at least adding a few things over the next couple weeks and see how they go. It won't be a free-for-all but just a couple things to distract from the seemingly horrible season we Orioles fans are about to endure. Don't worry , it's more of additions vs. a change of focus like some other Oriole blogs over the years. (2632...come back to us!) I need to indulge my passion for baseball history in general a bit more...

Nice self-indulgent post, huh? Moving on...

Random Thoughts......Holy Crap! Brian Got Traded!

Optimistic note of the day: The bullpen looked good yesterday. Matt Albers and Brian Burres shut down the Rays after they shelled Jeremy Guthrie. I still think Burres is better deployed out of the bullpen but I guess Dave Trambley will do that once he finds a better option.

*****

ESPN's Rob Neyer doesn't see us losing 100 games this year if only on the strength of our revamped outfield. He thinks we'll only lose about 95. Nice.

Also from Neyer regarding the Jay Gibbons situation:

What do you do with a bad contract? Unless some other team is feeling generous, you eat it. It's called a sunk cost, and if the Orioles really understand this basic principle, maybe there really is some hope for them.

*****

Alex Cintron has been signed to a minor league deal by Baltimore and will report to Norfolk. Nice low risk move which I called for last week. Luis Hernandez should be shanking in his cleats.

*****

Ummm....Brian Roberts just got traded. Guess I need to change my focus. More later but my initial reaction is we got a decent haul...

Thoughts on the First Game...

Current Orioles are hitting .281 against James Shields. Nick Markakis hits over .300 against Ray pitchers overall.

Jeremy Guthrie was 2-1 vs. the Rays last season.

That's it. A little optimism.

SC posted a speech from Major League that is quite fitting for our season.

Let's go O's!

Opening Day is Here...

...and the Orioles front office actually appears competent.

While it appears that Luis Hernandez is still on the team (more on that later), the Orioles did the right thing yesterday and released Jay Gibbons.

Jay hasn't played 130 games in a season since 2005. Last season, he fell off the table as he hit only .230 with 6 HR over 84 games before getting hurt again. Injuries and poor performance had made him an albatross on a team that was desperate for offense over the last two seasons.

It was a no-brainer to hand the spot on the roster over to Scott Moore...except that I'm not the one who would have to eat almost $12 million in contract. Andy MacPhail:

"The decision was essentially down to two players and we made a baseball decision," he said. "I just didn't see where this was going to be productive, or in anyone's best interests going forward the way we're stacked up now. "

The beauty, the true beauty of all this is that the Orioles made the right decision when put in a tough spot. Scott Moore is obviously going to outperform Gibbons this year even if he struggles to adjust to major league pitching. But the question was whether or not Peter Angelos was going to eat the rest that contract. And he did.

"I hadn't reached any conclusions myself. I was wrestling with this one," said MacPhail, relaying an anecdote. "I was really, more than anything, to be honest with you, looking for advice. His advice was, 'You've got to do what you've got to do.' Those were the last words he left me with, and I took the position that this was what I think we have to do."

Quite refreshing that Mr. Angelos appeared ready to make a good baseball decision, even if it was going to hurt his wallet. Certainly a step in the right direction.

I am not a Jay Gibbons hater. I think he was a good guy (he was nice to my son so I thank him for that...) and if he could've stayed healthy he had the talent to be an above average corner outfielder in this league. I hope he is able to continue his career if he chooses to.

*****

So DirecTV was having a free preview of their "Sports Pack" this weekend and I got to watch a lot of MASN this weekend. (I live in Atlanta...) I Tivo'ed the Orioles/Nats game and what do I see in the 4th inning? Luis Hernandez making yet another fielding error! I was so mad I still haven't gone back to watch the rest of the game.

Somebody (I can't recall who) was making excuses for Hernandez on one of the MASN shows. I'm going to go back and get that ridiculous quote and post it here.

He's the starting shortstop for now. He has a clean slate with me for now. Let's see what happens.

*****

It's Opening Day baby! Beat those upstart (Devil) Rays!

He Has Got To Go

There is now officially someone who deserves a spot on this roster less than Jay Gibbons. That man is Luis Hernandez.

Another error today bringing his spring total to 6. Unacceptable. His glove was supposed to be his calling card. Instead, it's is albatross. He's actually making Brandon Fahey look like a great choice by comparison.

The Warehouse needs to make the right decision on this one. Unlike Gibbons, there is no bad contract to eat. Hernandez needs to go back to Norfolk until he gets his groove back.

Lots of roster decisions to be made today. We'll wait and see what happens.

Base Hits: 3/26/2008

The thing I love most about the list of Oriole blogs I present to the left of your computer screen is that nearly all of them write far better than I do. ("All of them actually write far better than you do.", I'm sure at least some of you are thinking...) Case in point, Enchanting Sunshine's post reminiscing about Opening Day in Baltimore from the unique perspective of growing up quite literally in the shadow of Memorial Stadium. It's nostalgic, beautiful and a must-read. And she even has the good sense to pair Sam Adams with that Esskay frank. Lovely.

*****

My head tells me to ignore Spring Training stats, at least as a rule. My heart has me wondering if Melvin Mora is about to have a revivial of his largely dormant skills at the plate.

*****

ESPN's Rob Neyer has put together a list of the top 50 players over the next 5 years. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones both made the list.

*****

I really hope that Roch is reading this wrong but it certainly appears that Jay Gibbons is going to bump somebody off of this team (perhaps Scott Moore) that really belongs here far more than he does.

*****

The Orioles need to go out and sign Alex Cintron and cut Luis Hernandez loose. Cintron has elected to become a free agent instead of accepting a minor league reassignment after not making the Cubs roster out of Spring Training. Cintron can still field well, plays SS, 2B and 3B and has a fair bat. He's an upgrade at short for now and can serve as a utility man once a better option is found.

Base Hits: 3/25/2008

Luis Hernandez made yet another throwing error in yesterday's game giving him 5 total for the spring.

Brandon Fahey is being handed a the job as the starting shortstop on a silver platter. Much like Hernandez, there is no way that Fahey would have a chance to start for any other team in the league. But the Warehouse traded away Miguel Tejada leaving a gaping hole in this organization at short. They have yet to trade Brian Roberts for any other shortstop prospect and Fahey is latching on to the job that Hernandez is (literally) throwing away (into the dugout).

Fahey has out-hit and out-fielded Hernandez this spring. Time to cut our losses with Hernadez and patch the hole with Fahey until someone better (Blake Davis?) comes along.

*****

An interesting read over at The Hardball Times as Sean Smith attempts to quantify the best defensive players since 1956. Obviously, many Baltimore Orioles are at the top of this list. (Including the assertion that Mark Belanger was a better defensive shortstop than Ozzie Smith.)

Then the Orioles caused problems for his system in other ways, through something he calls "the Jim Palmer problem".

The Orioles of the late 1960s and early 1970s had incredible defensive numbers. The teams allowed far fewer hits on balls in play than an average team. If we give all this credit to Brooks Robinson, Paul Blair, Mark Belanger and Bobby Grich, then we have to take some credit away from Palmer. Could it be that it was the other way around, that Palmer’s great pitching made those fielders look better by getting batters to hit into easy outs?

Turns out that Palmer was able to induce outs from balls put in play at a rate nearly unheard of by non-knuckleball pitchers. I'll let you sift through Sean's methods but it is fascinating to me and cool to see some of your favorite players showing up on all-time great lists.

*****

Gibbons Headed to Minor League Camp - I got really excited when I saw this headline but it turns out that the Orioles are just sending him there to workout during his suspension. Hopefully, he'll just stay there.

*****

As if any of us cared, Nestor Aparicio has decided he's going back to Camden Yards.

I want to make this clear: the Orioles are as shameful and as pathetic as they’ve ever been in virtually every department (from marketing to media relations to dealing with their employees to dealing with the business community and people in general) – it’s actually getting WORSE, not better -- but I’m going back to the games anyway.

Isn't this the guy who didn't know who George Sherrill was a couple of days ago? I wonder if old Nestor would be reversing course if Free The Birds II has gone well and gotten him some of his much craved publicity?

My detractors and those on Mr. Angelos’ extended payroll called me a charlatan and said it was a “publicity stunt.”

Well count me as one of those who consider you a charlatan. Actually, I called you a carnival barker. Somehow my check from Peter Angelos for writing this little blog has been lost in the mail.

Nestor is and remains a blowhard with paranoid delusions worthy of Richard Nixon. And he's an assclown.

Chinks in the Armor

The season kicks off early tomorrow morning as the Red Sox and A's square off in Japan.

Before the season starts, let's get an update on our division rivals.

Tampa Bay Rays

Along with staff ace Scott Kazmir and projected RF Rocco Baldelli, utility man Ben Zobrist is expected to start the year on the DL. Also, in an act of ultimate cheapness, Evan Longoria was reassigned to minor league camp.

Kazmir has a strained elbow and there is no timetable for his return. The staff (Shields, Garza, Sonnastine, Jackson, Hammel) hardly looks as promising with Kazmir out of the picture.

RF will be manned by old man Cliff Floyd who will be lucky to be a league average hitter before he gets injured and Eric Hinske had to take over.

With Longoria gone, third will be manned by the sorry Willy Aybar who didn't play at all last season and is a headcase to say the least. (Tampa shipped out Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes because of their personality flaws but at least they had talent! Aybar is a marginal major leaguer and a problem child...) Aybar us injured and so is Zobrist so your guess is as good as mine who will open the season at the hot corner.

Toronto Blue Jays

It was only a matter of time but even I didn't expect Scott Rolen to go down this fast. Marco Scutaro, a downgrade both offensively and defensively, will play third. Rolen is expected to be out at least a few of weeks.

The Jays great bullpen is showing some cracks as B. J. Ryan's comeback has hit some bumps in the road and their best reliever from 2007, Casey Janssen, is gone for the season.

A.J. Burnett is battling a broken fingernail on his throwing hand. Expect his struggles to continue.

New York Yankees

Andy Pettite is battling back spasms. That's a big deal for a team whose rotation is a bit thin after the number 2 hurler but other than this news it's situation normal for the Yanks.

Boston Red Sox

Schilling's down. Josh Beckett is battling injuries. Mike Timlin has an injury to his right ring finger.

It would be nice if Beckett's injury lingered...

How Baltimore Can Win The East: The Case FOR Baltimore

That's right. The case FOR Baltimore.

I've read too many articles, projections, previews and predictions that talk about what is going AGAINST the Orioles. Enough actually, that my dander is up, spurring me on to finally write this final installment.

Rally round O's fans! The eternal optimist will turn his head upward towards the rest of the division, glare defiantly, roll up his sleeves and lick his chops.

1. Outfield Production

First, forget about Nick Markakis. Forget that he is projected to steadily improve on his solid numbers from last season. I mean, just forget about that for a moment.

I have bemoaned the lack of offense at the centerfield and (especially) leftfield for the last two seasons. That, however, is about to change.

OPS of Oriole leftfielders from 2005-2007: .670, .681, .631

Let's assume that Luke Scott just comes in and posts the .855 OPS he had last year. Hell, let's just assume he posts his CHONE projection of .789...you see what I'm getting at? Scott is a huge upgrade from anything we've had in leftfield since B.J. Surhoff was a useful player. Nice upgrade at a position that sorely needed one.

OPS of Oriole centerfielders from 2005-2007: .668, .715, .713

Meet Adam Jones. We all love projections, don't we? Jones is projected to post an OPS over .800 by Bill James and ZIPS. That and good defense will go a long way towards improving the team overall.

Overall? The outfield looks to be the best Baltimore has fielded since 1999.

2. The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

I don't think so. In 2007, questionable personnel were put in bad positions and overworked early in the season by Sam Perlozzo. That changed under Dave Trembley and if not for a season ending injury to closer Chris Ray and lefty Brian Burres being pressed into starting duties (due to injuries to the staff) it is conceivable that Dave Trembley may have been able to keep the bleeding to a minimum after her took over.

The bullpen returns the two best performers from 2007 (Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford) adds another proven commodity in George Sherrill (even if he's not in a role he's proven at). Brian Burres (may) be back in the pen as a long man which is the role he's best suited for. The rest will be some mix of Dennis Sarfate, Greg Aquino, Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry and Jon Leicester. Really, are any of these arms worse than Paul Shuey, Rob Bell, Kurt Birkins or Todd Williams. I say no.

Down on the farm Bob McCrory, James Hoey and others await as backup and Chris Ray may return late this summer.

The O's had a historically bad bullpen and still didn't lose 100 games in 2007. It will be difficult to be that bad again. For that reason alone, the pen looks better by default.

3. Rebounds

This is a minor factor to be sure but every little bit counts. Ramon Hernandez was not as bad as he looked last year. He will be better and indeed he is projected to be better. Aubrey Huff is projected to be somewhat better. Even Melvin Mora is projected to have a slight uptick by the Bill James projection (Although, just holding steady will be fine with me...)

Some minor improvements by some of the underperforming vets could squeeze out a win or three over the course of the season.

4. A Better Bench

This one's dicey because we really don't know who will be on that bench. But Guillermo Quiroz is a better bat off the bench than, say, Paul Bako. Scott Moore will be there and when he's playing Millar or Spanky will be on the bench. Freddie Bynum and Tike Redman will be nice pieces to play with.

All of this is dependant on the fact that Jay Gibbons doesn't return. I can't imagine he will but stranger things have happened.

5. A Decent Manager

For the first time since Davey Johnson left, we seem to have a manger who is inventive enough to explore his teams strengths to try and win. He took unorthodox measures in 2007 when shorthanded (batting Corey Patterson 2nd, Kevin Millar as a cleanup hitter) and he knows how to manage his bullpen and his bench. These are good qualities to manage a team that will have plenty of disadvantages out of the gate.

Trembley is used to being the underdog. Did anybody here think he would be able to remove that interim tag from his title when he took over for Sam Perlozzo last season. I sure didn't. Trembley's playing with house money and he's playing to win.

Conclusion

Do I really believe the O's can win the division? No. Do I believe they will be the AL doormat? No. Do I believe this will be a fun team to watch? Yes. Do I believe they can be competitive and flirt with .500? Yes.

Keep writing Baltimore off. I like it.

photo courtesy of the Baltimore Sun

Spring Training Update

1. The Bullpen Auditions - Out of the seven probable bullpen spots, it looks like 4 are now locked up. Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Goerge Sherrill (who has now officially been tabbed as the closer) and either Brian Burress or Matt Albers, the loser of the competition for the 5th starting spot in the rotation. Dennis Sarfate is out of options and will likely make the team. Randor Bierd has pitched very well and since he's a Rule V pick, I have to believe Dave Trembley will find a spot for him. That's six. The last spot probably comes down to either Greg Aquino or John Leciester. Leciester has not pitched great but Trembley has expressed a desire to keep two long men in the pen.



2. The Scott Moore Factor - Moore has been a little banged up but has hit .556 and slugged .889 this spring. Moore is clearly making this team. Jay Gibbons will be relegated deep onto the bench if he makes the team at all.



3. The Young Arms - The young arms have disappointed a bit. Steve Trachsel is certainly going to make the team and Brian Burres and Matt Albers are battling it out for the 5th spot in the rotation. Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn and Jim Johnson will go to AAA and look to return later this season.



4. The Least Repulsive Option at Shortstop - So far, Brandon Fahey has the inside track simply because Luis Hernandez has been poor in the field. With Freddie Bynum injured, Fahey's versatility may keep him on the roster anyway. Juan Uribe has been cut by the White Sox so he may turn out to be the starter at short instead.



5. The Battle for the Backup Backstop Part II - It's over and Guillermo Quiroz looks to be a significant upgrade over last years backup catchers.

More:

I'm not really getting my hopes up but Melvin Mora is hitting everything real hard this spring.

A nice article about Adam Jones (and the Oriole's spring in general) on ESPN.com.

An article on former Oriole Larry Bigbie as he begins his career in Japan. The Mitchell Report is also feature prominently.

Reports are that the Cubs brass are getting annoyed about how long the Brian Roberts talks are dragging on. Well, tough luck fellas. We need to trade B-Rob even less than Tejada or Bedard as we have him under contract for two more years. If you want to make a legitimate run at the World Series this year, you'll pony up. If not, the Mets could use some help at second base. Brian Roberts in the National League. He'll be a monster...

2008 NL Predictions

The AL was yesterday, the NL is today.

NL East

Atlanta

Philadelphia

New York Mets

Washington

Florida

Atlanta will have the best lineup in the NL this year. That and a solid, not spectacular, pitching staff will spell success. Philly has too many questions surrounding their pitching. The Mets are going to be a huge disappointment. Their lineup is quite suspect and the pitching past Santana will be only fair. Pedro does not make 25 starts. Nats will be almost respectable with some of that young talent. Marlins traded away their two best players and their young pitchers are banged up.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee

Cincinnatti

St Louis

Houston

Pittsburgh

If the Cubs finally get Brian Roberts, they may run away with the Central. Brewers need a bit more pitching but may sneak in with the wild card. Cincinnatti will be a winning team. Pujols injuries linger and Cards limp along behind. Astros would finish last if not for Pirates with overrated lineup and no pitching after Oswalt. Pirates will be the Pirates.

NL West

San Diego

Los Angeles

Arizona

Colorado

San Francisco

Lackluster lineup but a potentially dominant pitching staff 1-5 will win them the West. Balanced Dodgers will contend until the end, probably get Wild Card. Arizona takes a step back, they overachieved in 2007. Rockies too but mostly because their pitching staff returns to mediocrity. Giants may be the worst team in the NL.

2008 AL Predictions

Inspired by The Wayward O's series, I thought I'd weigh in with my predictions for the 2008 season. I won't be as detailed as Wayward O but I wanted to get them on the record.

AL East

Boston

New York

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

I just don't see a lot changing here. Boston and New York will both be relying on young pitching this year but New York more so. Toronto probably doesn't have the lineup to make the move to second place but if the Yankees pitching staff suffers injuries, they could sneak in there. I don't think that the Orioles will be any worse and I'm the only man in America who doesn't see where this quantum leap in Tampa is going to come from, especially with Scott Kazmir injured and Rocco Baldelli out indefinitely.

AL Central

Detroit

Cleveland (WC)

Minnesota

Kansas City

Chicago White Sox

Detroit clobbers the AL with the best lineup in baseball. Cleveland takes a small step backwards but should still be able to secure the Al Wild Card. Minnesota (and Delmon Young) surprise and will be much better than anyone thinks. Kansas City improves a wee bit but Ozzie Guillen gets fired midseason as the White Sox implode.

AL West

Anaheim, LA, whatever

Seattle

Texas

Oakland

Angels youngsters get better and most balanced team in the league takes the West. Mariners make it interesting but run out of gas. Texas is rebuilding but is ahead of Oakland in that process with the crop of players they got in return for Mark Texiera. Billy Beane or not, the A's will have major growing pains this season.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Base Hits: 3/14/2008

It's kind of ironic that the Orioles are hoping that Luis Hernandez becomes a modern day Mark Belanger because on Thursday they squared off against a guy who actually is the modern day Mark Belanger.

His name is Adam Everett and the Orioles are indirectly responsible for him being on the Twins roster in the first place. Everett has been the best defensive shortstop in the National League (perhaps in all of baseball) for several years but the Astros found him expendable once they acquired Miguel Tejada from the Orioles this offseason. The Astros cut him loose, the Twins signed him for peanuts and the O's are struggling to find a viable option at short.

Everett would have been a great fit with Baltimore but I guess they thought he wasn't $1.6 million better than Hernandez. Unfortunately, it looks like they may have been wrong...

*****

I can't say enough about what a great resource BaseballReference.com is, especially their Play Index feature (requires subscription). Weaver's Tantrum has sponsored the Adam Loewen page for 2008. I sponsored the Brian Burres page last year (hey, it was cheap) and haven't picked out the Oriole I want to sponsor this year. I encourage everyone to go take a look at the site and sponsor something to help support those guys.

*****

Speaking of Loewen, John Sickels over at Minor League Ball gives us some thoughts on Adam Loewen. He is concerned about injuries for Loewen but also says he compares very favorably to Al Leiter. I think we'll take that kind of career from Loewen anyday.

edit: Looks like they're going to shut down Loewen for at least one start. Tightness in the shoulder. Uh-oh. Weaver's Tantrum has some thoughts.

*****

The Wayward O has an entertaining series of posts that look at each MLB division and gives a predicted order of finish.

*****

Hayden Penn has been sent to back to minor league camp. Penn is coming off of injury and looked plenty rusty during his play on the Arizona Fall League (although he did manage to lead the league in strikeouts) but looked pretty sharp this spring. With Troy Patton out for the season, he looked like a legitimate candidate to make the team.

Unlike last season, I think Penn needs a month or two of healthy pitching back in Norfolk before returning to the big club, just to tune up a bit. If healthy, I'd like to see him get a long look this summer.

*****

Scouts watching the Astros this spring are saying that Tejada is playing a woeful shortstop and they don't think he will be manning that position by season's end.

Open Letter to Luis Hernandez

edit: I started writing this letter to Luis Hernandez after Tuesday's game, then had to go back an change it today as Hernandez made yet another throwing error on Wednesday. Sheesh! Shortstop was a question mark before and now it's becoming a huge concern. I think we need to kill a rooster to take the curse off his glove.

Dear Luis,

Let's get to the point. Can you just catch the damn ball? Or even better, when you catch the ball can you throw it somewhere near the firstbaseman's glove? You seem to be throwing it into the dugout or in the dirt. 4 errors in 9 games? Your glove was to be you calling card. Now it may be your downfall.

We were willing to embrace you. We respect defensive specialists at short in Baltimore. Outside of Cal Ripken, Baltimore has embraced the likes of Mark Belanger, Luis Aparicio and Mike Bordick. Any hit they got was gravy. This town, more than any, will forgive your offensive deficiencies if you can flash the leather. Baltimore understands the value of defense at short.

So start flashing it! Brandon Fahey has two errors but is eating your lunch!

You understand that this is the only team in the league that would consider opening the season with you in their starting lineup right? We don't care if you flirt with Mendoza line. Just make the plays in the field.

Three throwing errors. I hope for the sake of you and the team that you aren't developing a case of the yips. Snap out of it buddy. We'll be waiting for you when you do.

Signed,

Dempsey's Army

Spring Training, Philosophy and Injuries

Freddie Bynum will be out up to five weeks with a knee injury. He'll only miss a week or two during the regular season but the team will suffer without their utility man. It is a big dropoff to Brandon Fahey who would probably serve in that capacity at the beginning of the year.

In related news, the O's are rumored to be interested in Astros IF Mark Loretta. If they're going to trade Roberts (and it looks like they will) I like the move to pick up Loretta as long as they don't give up anyone decent to get him. I'm all for playing the kids but as far as secondbasemen go, the Orioles don't have any prospects. No sense in completely sucking at a position unless there's a potential payoff.

The Cubs are reportedly interested in acquiring Coco Crisp from the Red Sox. Why would they do this unless they find Felix Pie expendable? Pie could sweeten the pot for the Roberts deal a lot.

Let's look at some of the roster battles going on.


The Bullpen - Who knows? Dennis Sarfate has distinguished himself but that's about it. Everyone else has been varying levels of OK. Here's where we find out about Dave Trembely. Will he go with whoever has the hot hand in ST regardless of past track record (Greg Aquino, 4.88 ERA for his career but unhittable this spring), go with unproven youth (Radhames Liz) or look for more dependable veteran help elsewhere.

Outside of Sherrill, Walker and Bradford, I have no idea who's going to make this bullpen. A lot will depend on Trembley's philosophy.


Scott Moore - He's going to make this team and as long as he hits the first couple weeks of the regular season, Jay Gibbons won't be back. Right now, this looks like a done deal.

The Young Arms - With Troy Patton out of the picture and few guys stepping up big this spring, it looks like Steve Trachsel was a good insurance policy for the Baltimore Orioles v.2.0.08

Who's our number 5? Brian Burress has been wild and is best suited for long relief in my estimation. Garrett Olson has been wild as well and fairly hittable. Hayden Penn has been pretty good considering he's returning from injury but I think he should have at least a month in Norfolk to get back to his old self. The leading candidate at this point would have to be Matt Albers (5 IP, 5 Ks, 1 BB) but he's hardly head and shoulders above the other guys.

This one will be interesting to watch over the next three weeks.

The Shortstop - Fahey has hit a bit better that Luis Hernandez this spring but both were supposed to be showcasing their gloves. Not so much. Both have made 2 errors each in only 7 games. Ouch.

We may be missing Miggy more than we realized.

The Backup Backstop - Guillermo Quiroz has looked great this spring, behind the plate and at the plate. I don't expect this guy to hit .300 but I'll bet he'll hit .250 with modest power. That's a big upgrade from last year.

Chris Heintz hasn't looked bad either. Nice to have some options at catcher besides aging has-been retreads.

So I was watching the game on Friday and liked what I heard from Andy MacPhail. One thing he said the organization was tracking (and encouraging players to improve on) was pitches per plate appearance. While he was in the booth, Luis Hernandez struck out but saw 12 pitches during his at bat. MacPhail pointed out that Luis just had a positive at bat because, although he still struck out, he helped wear the pitcher down a bit more and allowed his teammates to see more pitches from the guy. Sure enough, the O's mounted a two-out rally shortly after and drove the pitcher from the game.

Agree with it or not, it's nice to have a philosophy. An organizational philosophy!

Random Thoughts

Since there is so little local interest in Spring Training games in Baltimore, I'm getting to listen to various radio announcing teams from around the country.

On Tuesday, I got to listen to the Cardinal announcers Mike Shannon and John Rooney. Two grumpier old men you'll never hear. It was like watching the game with two of my crotchety old great uncles. Everything was better in the old days for these guys. The only thing they got excited about was talking about the late Max Patkin and the San Diego Chicken. You Cardinal fans must really miss Jack Buck.

Today I got to listen to the Twins broadcasting team of John Gordon and Dan Gladden. I had never heard these guys before. John Gordon is actually pretty good, does a nice no-frills play-by-play. Dan Gladden is a bloviating gas-bag. Every other event during today's game spawned a story from Gladden about his days playing the game. Every ex-player does this but the good ones balance it well. Gladden does not. He is also quite derisive and derogatory toward the "modern" players. Christ. He's unbearable.

I heard about one of the most unusual promotional giveaways today. The Twins will be giving away "Dirt Shirts" during one of their home games. What is a Dirt Shirt? It is a shirt that has been infused with dirt from the construction site of the new Twins stadium. Ummm...awesome?

Brian Roberts has been on base 5 times this spring and has stolen 5 bases. He is running for his career! His feet are on fire.

Mike Costanzo and Scott Moore are raking this Spring. I think you can envision Constanzo and Moore taking the place of Gibbons and Millar on the roster, maybe as soon as this fall. But both are more flexible than your standard 1B/DH types.

I didn't know that Eddie Murray could levitate.




Finally, at long last, I will be able to watch an Oriole Spring Training game tomorrow.

Glorious Spring Afternoon

A beautiful spring day here in Atlanta and if you can't be outside, listening to the Orioles is not a bad way to spend your afternoon.

Outside of our local broadcasters (of course), does it get any better than listening to Charley Steiner and Rick Monday call a ballgame? Outside of Vin Scully anyway. It doesn't, does it?

'Follow me! Follow me to freedom!"





You gotta love Charley Steiner. Very happy he is no longer with the Yankees. The fact that he didn't get along with that tool John Sterling only raises my opinion of him.

In the interest of equal time, Rick Monday saves the flag:



The Orioles faced two of their former pitchers today. Jason Johnson pitched for the Sebu Lions in Japan last year but is trying to win a roster spot with L.A. Matt Riley pitched for AAA Las Vegas last season and came on in relief. Adam Jones took his first pitch over the centerfield wall. But then he struck out two of the next three batters. Such was the tantalizing allure of Matt Riley.

When Budweiser highlights "Mr. T-Shirt Launcher Inventor Guy" during one of their "Real Men of Genius" ads, haven't they just run out of ideas?

Leave it to Estaban Yan to make the game exciting. Trembley saw enough of that last season Esteban. Good luck making the club!

To leave you today, I found this video on YouTube while looking for Rick Monday saving the flag. It made me laugh. Creative heckling is an art form.

Base Hits: 3/2/2008

I find this article in Sunday's Baltimore Sun fascinating! Great work, Jeff Zrebiec!

When I said the O's were going to have some real weapons in the outfield this year, I didn't mean actual real weapons! (badoon-bum-ching!)

A mugger's worst nightmare: jumping a group of guys in a dark alley and having them be Luke Scott, Jamie Walker and Nick Markakis.

Seriously, I have no problem with this. It's legal, it's fine with me. Must be the Libertarian streak in me.

Nor do I have an issue with his strong religious beliefs. For all the concern about religion causing issues in the clubhouse, it almost never happens. The only guy I can remember really causing issues in regards to his religion was an outfielder named Chad Curtis back in the 1990's.

Anyway, great article. A must read.

*****

A few thoughts on the games this weekend.

Spring training stats don't count for much but if you are Jay Gibbons you really don't want to get off to an 0-8 start with 3 strikeouts and no walks. Very poor.

Highlighting Gibbon's struggles in the versatility being shown by Scott Moore in the field and the hot bat he's been swinging. He's eating Jay's lunch at this point.

Is Brian Roberts ever going to stop running? Do you think he's trying to get traded or what? He's practically screaming, "Hey Lou, I'll steal 100 for you is you want!" Enjoy the showcase while it lasts...

One thing you can learn from Spring Training was demonstrated yesterday. I do expect the Orioles to blow leads late and have to rally if they expect to win. Lance Cormier surrendered a four run lead in the 9th. I have to say I saw this plenty over the last couple of years when he was with the Braves. He's very inconsistent and prone to getting shelled. And he's really not a good pitcher.

Should I be reading anything into the fact that Luis Terrero is getting a lot of at bats and playing well while Tike Redman is hardly playing at all?

Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey both made errors in yesterday's game. Crap.

*****

Troy Patton, I predict, is going to be done for the year. I know I'm going out on a limb here. No shock at this point.

*****

I am a total Daniel Cabrera apologist but even I don't care that he walked nobody during 3 innings of work on Saturday.

*****

You can't really beat Thomas Boswell as far as baseball writing goes and it's especially enjoyable when he highlights my team. But Tom, Baltimore got 10 players back from the Tejada/Bedard trades, not nine.

My respect for Dave Trembley grows the more I hear about him.

*****

Finally, a story on Matt Wieters from the South Florida Sun Sentinel.