Delving into Brad Bergesen...Again

This past Friday, MASN's Steve Melewski had a post about Brad Bergesen and how his fine performance is at odds with modern statistical assessment. In particular, he references a FanGraphs article about Bergesen where his performance is viewed through the prism of various predictive stats.

But stats, in any sport, have never told a complete story. What about a players experience? What about his poise, his guts, his work ethic, his heart?

Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a number for that. No one does. It seems to me, Bergesen scores high in areas we can't put a number on.

I don't dismiss these useful stats and in fact continue to learn more about them all the time. But sometimes when you interview a player and/or hear his teammates talk about him and then you see him in person you learn things that Fangraphs could never tell you.




The comments were then filled (mostly) with the usual knee-jerk screeds about how stat guys should take their nose out of their spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah. But that's not Steve's fault. I agree with Steve to an extent but let's refute some of the assertions first because,well, it's what I do best and that's more fun.

Firstly, let's look at the FanGraphs article by Dan Budreika that inspired Steve's post. That article was an article on fantasy baseball (which Melewski does mention). Bergesen is a borderline pitcher for fantasy purposes. He doesn't strike out many batters and he allows baserunners. His value is wrapped up in his lack of walks and his ERA, which the article said he might not be able to keep so low. But Dan concludes the article with this:

But if he maintains a similar profile to last year then he’s certainly a serviceable pitcher (and much more valuable in real-life) at the back of your rotation and even more valuable in deeper leagues.

Fantasy has little to do with real-life baseball but the author concedes that Bergesen may have some value even in fantasy and certainly that he is valuable in real-life. He's hardly bagging on Bergesen, he's just trying to get his head around how Bergesen does what he does.

But stats, in any sport, have never told a complete story.

But stats do speak to many of Bergesen's strengths. His GB% rate was 50.1% in 2009. According to FanGraphs.com, that was good for 17th in the majors, 6th in the AL. He walked only 2.3 per 9 innings, good for 11th in the NL. He gets groundballs, doesn't walk a lot of people and keeps the ball in the park. That's recipe for success in the majors, if not stardom. And those things can be quantified with statistics.

What about a players experience? What about his poise, his guts, his work ethic, his heart?


Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a number for that. No one does. It seems to me, Bergesen scores high in areas we can't put a number on.

I agree with Steve on this point. This is what scouting is for. Makeup, work ethic, coachability...these things are the intangibles that must be examined, especially for guys with fringy stuff.

But even knowing those things, there is only so far that wil take you without the stuff to compete. And if you're watching Brad Bergesen in AAA, how is someone to know if his stuff will translate to the majors? Did Josh Towers fail because he had poor makeup? Or Garrett Olson? Both those guys had good reps for makeup. Ultimately, it comes down to talent.

This is not to say that Bergesen cannot continue to do so. He does lots of little things well (in The Bill James Handbook, he is second to only Mark Buerhle in fielding his position according to scouts) and there are some guys who can succeed with his skill set. Mark Buerhle comes to mind. John Lackey's rookie season looked a lot like Bergesen's. Derek Lowe to some extent. And then there are the extreme outliers like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. It can be done but you can also understand the skepticism.

Nobody knows what allows guys with fringy stuff to succeed on the highest level. (Or for that matter, what causes guys with great stuff to fail.) If you can figure that out, you'll be a rich man. As it is, it's far more art than science. And usually, guys like Bergesen will fail as starters.

However, blending the stats with what I've seen with my eyes, I'm a believer. I don't think Bergesen will ever be an ace but I think he could be a slightly above average, back of the rotation pitcher for many years. Think of a Tim Wakefield type guy. Nothing wrong with a dependable starter like that.

But there's little reason to juxtapose stats vs. intangibles. It's a blending of the two where the answer lies. And even that is murky.


For a FanGraphs article that paints Bergesen in a good light and wonders why he was missed on top prospects list, check out this article from Bryan Smith.