Work and family are conspiring against me! Just the normal facts of life but don't expect a lot of posting from me until the middle of September...
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Just wanted to spotlight the great job Jake Arrietta did pitching for team USA against China a couple weeks back. 6 shutout innings while striking out 7? Fantastic!
*****
Yesterday, the Orioles snapped a 5-game skid and won their 63rd game. It was a foregone conclusion in the minds of many in the media that the Orioles would lose 100 games and be the worst team in baseball. They will not lose 100 and are far from the worst team in baseball. This alone is a small victory for the franchise.
Just for the record, the Detroit Tigers were picked to win close to 100 games and perhaps score 1000 runs in 2008. They have exactly 1 more win than Baltimore.
August has been tough (as I predicted) but Baltimore is only 11-14 for the month which has seen them play some very tough competition. If they could somehow take the Tampa series, you would have to consider August an incredible success.
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This is a bit old but here is an interview with Baysox pitcher Chris Tillman from the guys at Baseball Digest Daily Live. Good stuff.
*****
Speaking of Chris Tillman, ESPN's Keith Law had a scouting report from a recent Baysox game:
Orioles pitching prospect Chris Tillman started last night for AA Bowie at Reading and easily outpitched his somewhat more highly-paid opponent, Adam Eaton.....
Tillman started out throwing 87-88 mph, but then gradually increased his velo to the low 90s, topping out at 93. The right-hander has good life with tailing action on his fastball, and sinks it at 87-88. At 92-93, it flattens out but still has the same tailing action. His best pitch is his curveball, a very sharp breaking ball with some two-plane break and great depth. It moves quickly with tight rotation and looks a lot harder than its 74-77 mph velocity. He throws a changeup with good tumbling action, but he doesn't use it often or show much feel for it yet.
Aside from a hook at the start of his delivery, he's pretty clean overall, staying over the rubber well and then driving forward with a long stride, taking advantage of his long legs. He gets good downhill plane on almost everything he throws and keeps his head steady through the delivery.
Where Tillman fell short of absolute top-prospect status was in his command. He looks the part, with his clean delivery, but he doesn't locate his fastball welll, not even to a general part of the zone. He misses bats because his curveball is just toxic and because his fastball gets in on hitters quickly, but he needs to be more precise with the latter pitch to succeed in the big leagues.
And a couple comments about Matt Wieters:
Catcher Matt Wieters homered on the first pitch he saw from Eaton last night, an 84 mph nothing-ball on the outer half that Wieters spit on and sent out to left-center (the opposite field, since he was batting left-handed). Wieters, the game's top hitting prospect, has gotten significantly stronger since he was an amateur; at Georgia Tech he was wiry strong, but had room on his frame to add muscle, which he's done fairly quickly. His sheer size, not a lack of skill, might make him a little more questionable behind the plate long-term, but he looks like he's going to hit for 30-plus home run power.
Good news from the farm...
*****
MelMo batting line for August: .427/.463/.781
That's good for a 1.244 OPS. More on this later but this may be the best month Mora has had in his career....
*****
Matt Wieters is coming....
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Base Hits: 8/28/2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
Base Hits: 8/15/2008
Wow! Busy week at work. Where has the week gone? But I figured I'd check in for Friday...
*****
It's hard to get real excited over a player like Lou Montanez (at least his upside) but it's hard not to like the guy. Hey, it's rare but late bloomers do happen in baseball. See Howard Johnson. Or Jeremy Guthrie.
*****
You know, this whole Hayden Penn thing is a real drag. Every time he looks like he's about to get a break, he suffers another injury.
I'm still rooting for the guy but the truth is that he hasn't been the same pitcher since he had surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow in May of 2007. Look at his numbers in the minors since his fantastic 2006 run at AAA.
*****
One year ago, I was biting my nails and prepping a scathing post attacking the Oriole front office and Peter Angelos for failing to sign Matt Wieters. This year, I have no such angst.
I actually have confidence that the Orioles will sign their top pick Brian Matusz before the mid night deadline. Apparently, so does everyone else:
Eric (Albany): Only 3 of the Top 10 picks have signed....of the 7 left how many don't reach an agreement?
Jim Callis: I did an Ask BA on this that you can check out at baseballamerica.com, too. I think of the 11 unsigned first-rounders, 10 eventually will sign. Allan Dykstra's hip condition worries the Padres, so that deal might not get done. As for the rest of the guys, we're in the rhetoric stage where the clubs say they have to be financially realistic and the players say they really will consider going back to school. Don't buy it, I think they'll all sign.
+++
Peter Schmuck: Matusz was in Baltimore yesterday for a physical, so it's down to the final dollar figure and roster conditions. Since I don't believe the kid is going to leave several million dollars on the table and risk his valuable arm on another college season, I'm pretty confident something will be announced late this afternoon. Hope they don't make us sweat it out all night.
++++
Roch Kubatko: It will be a major shock if the sides reach an agreement late tonight and Matusz's signature winds up on a contract. But it's expected to happen tomorrow before the midnight deadline. Both sides sound very confident.
I feel much better than I did last year. I hope my trust is not misplaced.
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Grimace(s) of the Day:
The collected grimaces of Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez and Jamey Carroll after the Orioles score 8 runs in the 8th last night.
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Aubrey Huff clears waivers. Hurry up and trade him before he remembers he's Aubrey Huff and not the second coming of Boog Powell.
Also clearing waivers were Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and Jamie Walker. You've got to trade walker for anything decent. If the O's have one area of depth, it's the bullpen. Jay Payton could actually be a useful right-handed bat off the bench for a contender. Ditto for Millar.
*****
The creator of Orioles blog Weaver's Tantrum, Desert O aka Dave aka Vegas has now hiked more than 1500 miles from from Georgia to Massachusetts. I encourage all in the oriole blogosphere to head over to his other blog, A Bite of the Appalachian, and post some words of encouragement. (BTW, it's a fascinating read...)
*****
Song of the Week:
Sticking with Chicago-based bands from the early-90's, Urge Overkill with "View of the Rain". Later...
Friday, August 8, 2008
Base Hits: 8/8/2008
Looking back on the week that was, Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the improbable performance of Matt Waters. It's part of ESPN Insider so here's the main text:
Waters' masterpiece for O's quite a shocker
I'd like to embrace the utter unlikelihood of what Chris Waters did last night.
As we see in a sidebar here, Waters became just the sixth pitcher in the past 50 years to throw eight-plus innings with no runs and one hit in a major league debut.
--snip--
Waters isn't even supposed to be in the major leagues. Look at the ages for each of those pitchers; before Waters, fellow Oriole Milacki was the oldest to make a similarly spectacular debut … and Waters is more than three years older than Milacki was. And although Milacki might not have been a Grade A prospect when he reached the majors in September 1988, that summer he'd gone 12-8 with a 2.70 ERA for Triple-A Rochester.
Just looking at the ages of the other pitchers on this list, it seems likely that all had done impressive work in the minors. We do know that Marichal's a Hall of Famer, and we know that May won 152 games in the majors and was still pitching at 39.
Waters, though?
He's not built like a pitcher. He's listed as being 6 feet tall, 170 pounds, which means he's probably 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. The Braves did like him enough in 2000 to draft him out of South Florida Community College in the fifth round. After initially pitching well as a professional, Waters stalled out; four years after being drafted, he was still pitching in Class A, and wasn't pitching particularly well. And after an unimpressive Double-A season (2006), the Braves cut Waters loose.
Last year, pitching for the Orioles' Double-A team, Waters went 8-9 with a 4.49 ERA. Before this season, he wasn't even listed among the Orioles' top 30 prospects, and he shouldn't have been. He is (or rather, was) a 27-year-old Double-A pitcher with yawn-inspiring numbers.
This year? Finally, Waters blew through Double-A: 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in six starts. Then came a promotion to Triple-A, where he … stunk: 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games.
So why did he get the call to the majors, finally? In Waters' last start for Norfolk, last Thursday against Lehigh Valley, he pitched seven innings and gave up one hit.
That's right. In what must be the greatest week of his professional life, Waters has given up two hits in 15 innings.
All of which is unlikely enough. Just as unlikely: Waters already is enjoying a significant major league career. He won't be the best pitcher on that list and probably won't match Steve Woodard's 32 career wins. (Interesting tidbit: After three years out of baseball, Woodard is pitching in the minors again, and you never know.)
However, I do give Waters a 50-50 chance of catching Billy Rohr, who finished his career with three major league wins.
Good stuff. But Neyer rarely disappoints.
*****
Chad Bradford got traded to the Rays. Hard to evaluate the trade until we see who we get back but Bradford was the only free agent reliever from the 2006 offseason who did not disappoint.
But Dave Cameron at FanGraphs.com reminds us that submariner pitchers are fun. And he's right! Sometimes we get so caught up in the winning and losing, we don't appreciate a guy until he's gone. But it was nice having another submariner on the team. I mean, who didn't love Todd Frohwirth?
*****
John Sickels reviewed his preseason list of Oriole Top Prospects on his Minor League Ball blog.
It's a mixed bag but Matt Wieters continues to crush minor league pitching and Nolan Reimold looks to be close to the big club as well.
*****
Song of the Week:
I recently bought the re-issue of Liz Phair's classic 1993 album Exile in Guyville. Reissue. They let it go out of print! Criminal!
It's reasons like these that the major labels deserve whatever is coming to them.
Here's "Stratford-On-Guy" from said album. Enjoy.
Terry Crowley and Oriole DH's Over The Years
Enchanting Sunshine made a comment on one of my previous posts about Aubrey Huff and how he's having one of the better seasons ever for an Oriole DH. "Where was Terry Crowley?", she wondered.
I only included players that qualified for the batting title. Crowley never did. So I changed the criteria to include Crowley in the assessment. Here it is:
Year OPS+
T. Crowley 1979 154
H. Baines 1999 150
H. Baines 1995 142
H. Baines 1993 137
A. Huff 2008 136
K. Singleton 1981 135
J. Dwyer 1987 131
K. Singleton 1983 131
S. Horn 1991 130
T. Crowley 1980 130
Crowley only played in 61 games in 1979 but he made the most of his at bats. He was perhaps more impressive in 1980 when he playe din 92 games, still hitting at a high level.
Look, it's Sam Horn! You think Weaver would've loved having Horn on his bench? Horn could've been the Terry Crowley of the 90's.
Huff has fallen off the pace a bit since last week but still finishes in the top 5 of all-time.
E.S. also wondered about Huff coming through for the team this year. Luke Scott has a lot of big hits but who's had the biggest hits for the club this year?
Total WPA leaders for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles:
WPA
Huff 1.87
Roberts 1.40
Mora 1.35
Markakis 1.00
Scott 0.56
Surprised to see Luke Scott so low? I sure was.
Huff has loomed large overall (he has been uncharacteristically consistent all year) but Melvin Mora at number 3? Has the Melmosity been peaking and I haven't noticed?
(BTW, from 1979-1981, Crowley had 78, 266 and 166 plate appearances respectively. He posted WPAs of 1.19, 2.00 and 1.50 respectively. Crazy numbers for a guy who played so little. Per at bat, he may be the clutchiest player in Oriole history.)
The biggest hits of the year by measure of WPA:
10 - Adam Jones - 6/29 - .351 WPA
Down by a run in the top of the 12th, The Truth singles home Markakis to tie up the Nats.
9 - Ramon Hernandez - 6/14 - .388 WPA
Two outs in the bottom of the 9th, Hernandez singles home Freddie Bynum to tie up the Pirates.
8 - Ramon Hernandez - 4/12 - .405 WPA
Down to their last out, Hernandez gives the Orioles life by hitting a solo shot to tie the game against Houston.
7 - Luke Scott - 7/19 - .414 WPA
With one out in the bottom of the 10th, Scott homers to tie the game.
6 - Melvin Mora - 4/17 - .418
Two outs in the ninth and the score ties, Mora singles Roberts home off Bobby Jenks to win the game.
5 - Ramon Hernandez - 7/19 - .431
Walk-off homer against Joe Zumaya to defeat the Tigers.
4 - Brian Roberts - 6/15 - .489
Walk-off homer against Matt Capps to defeat the Pirates.
3 - Melvin Mora - 6/17 - .556
Down 5-6 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 out, Mora doubles to center scoring Adam Jones and Brian Roberts.
2 - Aubrey Huff - 5/27 - .611
Down 7-6 in the bottom of the 8th to the Rays, Huff doubles in Kevin Millar and Mora to give the O's the lead.
1 - Aubrey Huff - 4/2 - .617
In the bottom of the 11th, Huff doubles to the wall off of Yankee reliever (and Oriole badmouther) LaTroy Hawkins. Mora comes all the way from 1st to score the winning run.
Who would have thought that Huff had the two biggest hits all season? Not I. Luke Scott only shows up once. Ramon Hernandez shows up three time lending creedence to my belief that he is having a better season than the boxscore shows. (Not that it matters much. Matt Wieters approaches.) Mora on both lists may indicate that he is having a better year than I thought as well. More to dwell on later...
E.S. also said, "I guess that's why it's better to not rely on perceptions." Well, not necessarily!
Earlier in the year, George Sherrill was being compared by many to Don Stanhouse (especially by E.S.) so I took a look at where Sherrill ranked among other "nailbiter" closers in Oriole history. At the time, he did not make the Top Ten based on my criteria. Now he is in a statistical dead heat with Stanhouse's 1978 season in terms of WHIP. That puts him as the #5 nailbitingest closer in Oriole history.
Sometimes perception is correct regardless of what the numbers say!
But eventually, the numbers tend to catch up.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Base Hits: 8/6/2008
One of the many great things about baseball is that you never know what you might see on a given night. When the Orioles threw LHP Chris Waters to the wolves last night, you wouldn't have expected that their desperation would yield a baseball rarity.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Base Hits: 7/31/2008
Shortly after I posted yesterday, I received a press release from MASN stating that Roch Kubatko will be joining MASN and that the Roch Around the Clock blog will continue of there starting on Friday. Here's the link to the news on MASN.com. Update your bookmarks accordingly.
*****
It's going to be a tough August for the Birds. They only play two series against teams with losing records (Seattle and Cleveland) and they play those series on the road. Speaking of playing on the road, the O's play 16 of 28 on the road in August. The O's are only playing at a .400 winning percentage on the road this season.
It's looking like it'll be a rough August for the Baltimore Orioles.
*****
Not a whisper about Aubrey Huff moving at the deadline. Huff has put together one of the best seasons ever (so far) by a Oriole DH:
OPS+ Year
H. Baines 150 1999
H. Baines 142 1995
A. Huff 140 2008
H. Baines 137 1993
Singleton 131 1983
Baines and Singleton...that's rarefied air in Orioles history.
He has also matched his RBI total from 2007 already and surpassed his home run numbers.
I have to grudgingly give Huff some respect for his performance this year. And I thought he was done as an impact bat. I was wrong.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
O's Win Again
The umps tried to sabotage the evening by ejecting D-Cab during one of his very rare good outings. But the O's won anyway and will take the series with the Yanks.
I hope the Yanks fall a couple games short of the postseason. Baltimore could point back to these games with pride.
But that's not what I'm here to talk about...
*****
Bill Ordine continues to perpetuate the Mark Teixeira-may-come-to-Baltimore myth. Though he is hardly alone.
Let's set this straight. He's not coming and we don't want him! Not at $20mil per!
Tex doesn't want to come here. All that "Aw shucks, it's be great to play for the hometown team. Gawrsh, that'd be neat!" is just Tex being polite. Or being duplicitous. He says nice things about every team that shows the slightest interest.
An example from Buster Olney's ESPN blog:
"Inside the clubhouse, it was awkward. An hour before the game, with teammates in earshot, Teixeira gushed to reporters that the Angels were "the best team in baseball." While also being complimentary of his former teammates, it had a strange ring. Braves coaches recognized the situation and ushered Braves players into other areas of the clubhouse."
What a great guy. He'll say great things about whatever city he's asked about. Even at the expense of his current teammates.
More from Tex from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
"I thought I'd be here the rest of my career," he said of Atlanta. "I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on."
Teixeira said he had been "open" to hearing offers from the Braves all season, but got none. Wren said the Braves didn't believe they could re-sign him after making an "aggressive" offer during spring training and having it rejected.
The GM said the offer would have made Teixeira one of the game's highest paid players. He is making $12.5 million this season in his last year of arbitration.
Let's see. You thought you'd spend the rest of your career here but rejected an offer from the Braves that would have made you one of the game's highest paid players. You need a shovel handy when Tex talks to the press.The guy seems to think he's a player who is the caliber of Albert Pujols or A-Rod. He's not.
*****
Bye Roch. We'll miss you.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Our Enormous Bullpen
O's drill Yanks
I'm going to leave double entendre out of this one...
Mussina get's rocked, Guthrie pitches great and The Truth delivers his message of hope for the Orange and Black.
But that's not what I have come here to talk about today. It's our pitching staff.
We have only two starters in my estimation. Well, one and a half.
The one is Jeremy Guthrie. He is without a doubt our best starting pitcher. The half is Garrett Olson. He may be a good starter in time but he is far from a guarantee at this point.
The rest?
Daniel Cabrera - Only his ability to eat a few innings keeps him in the rotation. I have been fooled for the last time. He should be tried out in relief to salvage him but he is now through as a starter - Potential Setup Man
Brian Burres - I have harped on this before but Burres' future in the majors is in the bullpen. As a starter, he's been a failure. Only injuries to others has kept him in the rotation. - Swingman
Radhames Liz - He is young and was a bit rushed to the majors but even before he got here there were whispers among scouts that he may be better suited for relief. Now those whispers have grown to open conversation. Liz would be a crazy setup guy or maybe a closer but starter may not be where he projects. - Future Closer
You've got to love our bullpen this year and the prospects for next year. Randor Bierd, Jim Johnson, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, a healthy Chris Ray, Brian Burres, Rocky Cherry, Jim Miller, Bob McCrory...there's lots of options. It's deep and dynamic.
But who's going to start in 2009?
Matt Albers - I was really hoping Albers would get his shot but his season ending injury ended that thought. Look for him to compete for a spot in 2009.
Chris Tillman - Tillman is doing very well as a 20 year old in AA Bowie, much more than holding his own. He may not start the season in the rotation but he will be a quick callup in 2009.
Brad Bergesen - The 22 year-old Bergesen has been under the radar but has improved every year he has pitched in the organization. An extreme groundball pitcher, Bergesen is having a better season than Tillman in Bowie and demonstrates fabulous control. He is the type of pitcher who could make a leap to Baltimore next season but they may take it easy on him. ETA mid-2009.
Unfortunately, that's about all I could come up with. Anybody else with any ideas?
(edit: I guess the Orioles see Dennis Sarfate as an option..at least in the short term.)
Monday, July 28, 2008
Base Hits: 7/28/2008
OK, the Orioles finally broke their Sunday losing streak. Big deal.
A win is a win but they lost 5 straight coming into Sunday including three straight against Toronto. Toronto! The one AL East team that we are actually better than! Owww, quit it!
Nice to see a win but they are becoming few and far between. Excuse me if I don't celebrate.
*****
On a positive note, Ben at Oriole Central has a great interview with none other than Brian Roberts! Nice job Ben!
*****
You know you have a problem when you get your dander up about writers maligning a Baltimore Oriole from 110 years ago.
Chris Jaffe has written a two-part series where he rates the BBWA on their Hall of Fame selections and omissions for The Hardball Times. He had a problem with old-timey Oriole RF Wille Keeler:
That just leaves one man—Willie Keeler. He's way the hell back, behind (among others) Rusty Staub, Rocky Colavito, Elmer Flick, King Kelly and Sam Rice. Keeler was the sort of man who did one thing really well (hit singles), and that was about it. That's exactly the kind of guy who is normally overrated.
Keeler's a real oddity because he's the only 19th century position player they voted in. That makes his pick especially damning. If you're only going to put in one hitter from the 1890s, you damn well better get it right. They skipped over Ed Delahanty, Billy Hamilton, Hugh Duffy, Jesse Burkett and George Davis for him.
Going by runs created, Keeler was the 17th-best batter of the 1890s. Shortstop Bill Dahlen was 16th best. Wanna adjust for his not playing in 1890-1? Fine—he's still clearly not the best, yet he's the only one in. I'm more tolerant of their omissions from the Paleolithic Era, which is why a sin of commission from that time period is so bad. He's the only problem in right, though.
This is what it has come down to. Willie Keeler is overrated. Pardon me while I bang my head into the keyboard. vqwefop l;qw ecl;qwjk
I am a baseball stat nerd. But I am also a baseball nerd in general. You have to combine the nerdiness to understand Keeler as a player.
(Let me just say that I enjoy Chris Jaffe's writing immensely, I'm just going to strenuously differ with him on this point.)
First, let's look at the assertion that Keeler was the 17th best player in Runs Created during the 1890's. That's cherry-picking the numbers. Keller played well into the next decade. you are judged by your career not an arbitrary span of ten years (of which you did not even play in two of them...).
So using Jaffe's choice of stat, the leaders in Runs Created from 1890-1910 are here. Here's the top five:
RC
Jesse Burkett 1566
Ed Delahanty 1520
Honus Wagner 1416
Willie Keeler 1378
Nap Lajoie 1351
Now, I'm sure that most of you aren't that familiar with turn of the century baseball stars but that is damn fine company for Keeler. 4th in baseball over a 20 year span is nothing to sneeze at.
You have to remember that Keeler played before the Deadball Era officially began. The ball was really dead in the 1890's. Keeler hit a lot of singles but that's what most of the best players did during this period in baseball. And he was a slap hitter and hit leadoff. You don't ask Tony Gwynn to jack homers!
The rest of the argument revolves around the writers not voting in Ed Delahanty. Very true that Delahanty was (and is) overlooked but that's hardly Keeler's fault.
Add to this that Keeler was considered the greatest rightfielder of his time and I think it's clear that Keeler is solidly deserving of the Hall of Fame. I mean, really.
*****
Roch Kubatko is leaving the Baltimore Sun according to his blog. I guess details will be forthcoming but he will be greatly missed and will leave a gaping hole in the Oriole blogosphere.
*****
Matt Wieters is coming. Not today, not tomorrow but soon. .333/.419/.519 at Bowie. Get to Bowie and see him so you can say "I was there when..."
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
A Little Homer Analysis
Just for fun, a little home run analysis of the Orioles for the season thus far using some data from HitTrackerOnline.com
First, just the raw home run leaders for the O's in 2008:
HR
Huff 19
Scott 17
Markakis 15
Mora 15
Millar 12
Going into September of last season, it didn't look like any Oriole batter was going to hit 20 homers (and without a power surge by Markakis in September, no one would have...). Now, we have 4 players already at 15. Low standards to be sure but it's an improvement.
So, the longest home runs (so far) by Standard Distance:
Distance
Markakis 447 ft
Quiroz 443 ft
Scott 442 ft
Huff 433 ft
Huff 430 ft
Now the leaders in True Distance. I won't go into great detail on all of the definitions here so here's the Hit Tracker glossary. Basically, it's the distance a home run would have travelled if it had continued, uninterrrupted, to field level.
Distance
Scott 444 ft
Scott 421 ft
Markakis 421 ft
Mora 421 ft
Scott 421 ft
Look at Luke Scott! A lot of raw power coming out of leftfield. But wait, there's more. The most No Doubt homers by an Oriole:
No Doubts
Scott 6
Huff 3
Markakis 1
Mora 1
Millar 1
Scott has a ton of monster shots. More than double the next guy and no one else has more than 1! Scott is a flawed player but I am a big fan of having at least one guy who can just crush the ball way over the outfield wall. The Orioles haven't had a guy with such raw power since Albert Belle.
Now the Just Enoughs:
Just Enoughs
Markakis 8
Hernandez 6
Huff 6
Mora 5
Millar 4
It's not really a surprise that Markakis leads this list. He does not have a classic home run swing; he's a line drive hitter with power. Since one of the qualifiactions for "Just Enoughs" is "the ball must clear the wall by less than 10 vertical feet", I am almost surprised he doesn't have more!
As hard as Ramon Hernandez is hitting the ball, he ssem sto be getting a little lucky with his homerun totals.
Speaking of luck, the leaders in Lucky Homers (affected by wind, temp, etc)
Lucky Homers
Hernandez 6
Markakis 4
Huff 4
Scott 2
Payton 2
More than half of Hernandez's homers have been classified as "lucky". Not a good trend. Markakis is here again due to his line drive swing. Sometimes his homers are just inches away from being doubles...and vice versa.
Finally, the leaders in Average Standars Distance or as Hit Tracker calls it, The Golden Sledgehammer:
Avg. Std. Distance
Huff 397.2 ft
Scott 395.4 ft
Mora 391.6 ft
Markakis 388.1 ft
Millar 371.3 ft
Aubrey Huff in an upset! Huff just edges out Luke Scott by less than 2 ft on average. I was kind of surprised to see Melvin Mora come in third though.
Just a footnote: Adam Jones has only hit 6 homers but only 1 of them was classified as "Just Enough". Our centerfielder also has some nice raw power if he can harness it. He is The Truth!
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Base Hits: 7/22/2008
Just to catch up on a few items here...
First, I am bummed that Freddie Bynum is no longer a Baltimore Oriole. Especially to make room for a player the caliber of Juan Castro.
The stathead side of me knows that Bynum is not helping the cause at all. The rabid baseball fan in me says that one day, if he just gets a chance, he just might be a good player.
Dempsey's Army bids Bynum a fond farewell and wishes him the best of luck.
*****
Speaking of good luck, Jay Gibbons is reportedly close to signing a minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers.
First, I wish Gibbons good luck. I always thought he was a good guy. Second, if this is true Gibbons is incredibly lucky. I thought he'd have to hit better than .280 in independant baseball to get a sniff from a major league club.
*****
More good luck wishes go out to Adam Loewen who will be abandoning his career as a pitcher and pick up a bat.
Very sad to see Loewen's career end up like this. I know that he may come back as a good hitter since scouts were split on wether he was a hitting or pitching prospect coming out of college.
But there's a reason a story like Rick Ankiel is a story. It rarely happens. Hell, even a failed hitter like Brooks Kieschnick becoming a modestly successful relief pitcher was a novelty.
I hope he comes back but realistically, his big league career is over.
*****
I will take a split with the Tigers coming out of the All-Star break any day...
*****
You know, everyone talks about the Orioles' poor 1-15 ecord on Sundays but what about their great 10-4 record on Tuesdays? Do you think Shawn Marcum is shaking in his boots?
You also don't want to face the Orioles on Fridays (11-4), Saturdays (10-6) or Mondays (5-2). Maybe the O's could start a TGIF promotion for Fridays?
Monday, July 21, 2008
Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: Boston Red Sox
Another look back on my thoughts about our AL East opponents. Finally, the Red Sox
1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit
I was pretty much wrong on this one. Beckett has pitched well, if not like a Cy Young candidate. Jon Lester has taken a big step forward at age 24. Dice K has been dominant and Tim Wakefield is having one of his best years ever. The only letdown has been Clay Buchholz.
Add all this to the good bullpen performance, they have the staff to contend. They are not really missing Schilling at all…
2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth
Yeah, this was easy. He obviously wasn’t going to hit .324 again but he’s still having a pretty good season. He didn’t fall far enough to hurt…
3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old
After a couple of down seasons, Jason Varitek has finally fallen off the table. David Ortiz is banged up. Manny Ramirez has seen a small drop-off but he’s still damn good. A mixed bag on this one but the kids have picked up all the slack.
4. The Ellsbury Enigma
Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so.
Ellbury has not even lived up the the reduced expectations I had for him. The pluses are that he has already stolen 35 bases and his defense in center has been better than previously advertised.
He does enough but is only posting an 82 OPS+…exactly the same as the much-maligned Coco Crisp.
5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?
Lugo has not. Drew has.
I was hoping against hope that Drew would follow the Kirk Gibson career trajectory and start to breakdown in his early 30’s but history shows that Drew has a good year every other season.
Conclusion
Many of the problems I highlighted have come to fruition but not to the extent I thought. And when they did, the weaknesses have been masked by unexpected success in other areas.
They are a flawed team but they are the best equipped to win the AL East at this point.
Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: Tampa Bay Rays
Another look back at my preseason predictions. This time, the Rays.
1. The Rotation Is a Question Mark After Kazmir
I was dead wrong in this assessment. Shields has improved on 2007 and Matt Garza took a big step forward in his game. It has made them (Kazmire-Shields-Garza) arguably the best starting three in the game. How about the 4th and 5th spots? More on that later.
2. Carl Crawford...and Then What?
Crawford is a star player but he's just about the only sure thing in the lineup. And even he is not the kind of hitter that can carry a team.
This was true.
Rocco Baldelli is injury prone.
That was true.
Carlos Pena came out of nowhere to post MVP type numbers in 2007. Is he really going to repeat that performance?
Pena has done little this season when he isn’t facing Jamie Walker. This is true.
This lineup could score a lot of runs but they're going to have to count on a lot of youngsters make giant strides to do so.
That wasn’t completely true but if not for Evan Longoria this lineup would be severely underperforming. They are winning in spite of their bats. More on that later…
3. The Bullpen Stinks
The Rays bullpen was the worst in baseball last season (yes, even worse than the O’s) but has done a Baltimore style turnaround this season to post the 9th lowest ERA in the majors. (Baltimore is currently 8th…). Dead wrong on this assertion as well.
4. They Can't Catch The Ball
Regardless of the metric you use, the Rays are among the best defenses in baseball. The addition of Lonoria at third, Jason Bartlett at short and the conversion of Aki Iwamora from third to second has stabilized the infiled and the continued improvement of B.J. Upton in center has helped immensely. Again, dead wrong.
5. The Key Contributors on Offense...Will Be Kids
This was true and some contributors have struggled in the first half. But Longoria has not. The offense has been good enough to contend.
Conclusion
Tampa Bay was a chic pick to take a big step forward this season and have been quite a surprise. But the fact that they are doing it with pitching and defense is the real shock. It was supposed to be the bats of Carlos Pena, Crawford, Upton and Longoria that were to lead Tampa to respectability but instead it’s been the glove and the arms. Even bottom of the rotation guys like Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are benefiting from the improved glovework by the Rays.
Will the pitching hold? Maybe. Will the bats come around? If they do, they will be a juggernaut.
I was dead wrong about these Rays…
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
"We Win, You Win 2"
Just a quick note to highlight a promotion just announced by the Baltimore Orioles. the summary:
In an effort to snap their 14-game Sunday losing streak, the Orioles have announced a sequel to the popular “We Win, You Win” promotion from July 6. The “We Win, You Win 2” promotion will raise the stakes, as all fans in attendance at the 1:35 p.m. game on Sunday, July 20 against the Detroit Tigers will receive two complimentary tickets in the same seating category to any future non-prime game, if the Orioles win.
This is great on many levels:
1) The O's are being open and honest about the team's abysmal record on Sundays. It may not seem like much but in the past negative traits of the team were glossed over, not copped to.
2) They are turning a negative into a positive.
3) It is designed to reward fan support and potentially boost Sunday attendance.
It's a good idea and shows that the Oriole public relations team is continuing to look for new ways to reach out to the fans.
Full details of the promotion can be seen here.
Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: New York Yankees
Revisiting (and revising) some of my preseason looks at AL East teams. Now, another look at this February post about the Yankees.
1. Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem
And it has been.
Andy Pettite has been league average, as I expected. Wang was good but now is injured. Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy have already flamed out.
The wild cards here have been Joba Chamberlain and Mike Mussina. I thought Chamberlain would be a good starter but I didn't expect him in the rotation this soon. Mussina has recaptured some skills and is having a hell of a last hurrah in pinstripes. If not for these two, the staff would be tryuly abysmal.
The question will be if these two can continue their good performances. Chamberlain looks strong and I expect him to pitch well in the second half. Mussina has tired late in the season the last couple of years. Moose looks more likely to suffer a setback.
2. Jorge Posada Falls to Earth
Well, he has but who really thought he would hit .338 again?
Since his injury, Posada has hit at rates that you would expect Posada to hit at but time will tell if his 36 year old body continues to betray him this season (Look at Jason Varitek for a cautionary tale...)
3. Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball
As much as it pains me to say this, Jeter is having one of the best fielding seasons by an AL shortstop in 2008.
By nearly every measure, he is one of the top fielders in the league. His errors are up but they're not at crazy levels. The only thing I could say is that the competition among AL shortstops is light. Outside of Michael Young and Orlando Cabrera, there are no regular AL shortstops with stellar defensive reps.
Of course, he's hitting more like David Eckstein than his normal self...so it balances out I suppose.
4. Who's On First?
I ripped the Yanks for their personnel at firstbase but Jason Giambi has been better and played more games there than I thought. They're going to be fine at first for now.
5. Melky's the Man?
Before the season, I compared Melky to Corey Patterson and found him only slightly better at the plate. So far, Corey Patterson is looking like a better option.
Melky's OPS number for the last three seasons, including his partial 2008, are .751, .718 and .690. He's regressing. He's an easy out.
Conclusion
I was somewhat correct on the rotation. Only Chamberlain has panned out among the youngsters and outside of the surprising Mussina, it has been decimated by injury and ineptitude. However, the bullpen, outside of LaTroy Hawkins, has been stellar and bailed the Yanks out a lot.
The offense has seen unexpected very good performances from Giambi and Johnny Damon (when healthy) and great numbers from A-Rod (as expected). But the rest of the offense has been lackluster at best. The Orioles are scoring more runs!
Without some continued luck with their pitching staff, the O's could still catch these guys and the Blue Jays before year's end...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Pre-season Thoughts in Review - Toronto Blue Jays
It's the All-Star break so just a look back at some of my pre-season predictions. I looked at potential problems with the Toronto Blue Jays...
1. David Eckstein is Playing Shortstop
He is the worst fielding shortstop in the AL and is a poor hitter to boot. Hitting .269. Horrible free agent signing.
2. Their Best Offensive Threat Is 46
And they cut him. Good job. Only Seattle has a more pitiful offense.
3. No Legitimate Catchers
Rick Dempsey's Nephew and Rod Barajas have been an adequate pair at catcher. Better than expected and a small bright spot in their offense. Kind of.
4. Injury Prone At The Corners
This has not come to pass but Scott Rolen has missed a few games. Lyle Overbay has been a virtual ironman at first but is only hitting .269 with 6 homers.
5. Legitimate But Injury Prone Rotation
Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are on the DL. Roy Halladay is Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett has been up and down. Jesse Litsch is regressing toward his FIP form last year. Burnett may now be on the trading block. The bullpen is in good shape but outside of Halladay, there's not much in the rotation for the second half.
Only some bizarre wins and Roy Halladay kept the Blue Jays out of the cellar at the All-Star break. A puny offense and a banged up rotation won't get you through the dog days of summer. I expect them to sink lower in the short term and if they unload Burnett, they could finish below the Orioles in the AL East.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Base Hits: 7/14/2008
Finally, I am back in town. I will be home through the rest of the regular season, so I hope to get back to posting more regularly.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Put Brian Roberts in the All-Star Game!
I am on vacation with very tenuous internet access but I did want to drop a line to urge everyone to go to MLB.com and vote for Brian Roberts for the All-Star game. Only Evan Longoria is arguably Roberts' equal as a deserving candidate.
Vote early, vote often! Go!
Thursday, July 3, 2008
More Cabrera
Daniel Cabrera's pitch location from last night:
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
The First Taste
OK, so everybody knows what happened to the Birds on Sunday (and Monday. Eeeesh...) but it was interesting to watch that game through the eyes of a 6 year old. It was his first time watching an extra inning game.
The Win Probability graphs from those two heartbreakers, courtesy of FanGraphs:
Do you know what the odds are of coming that close to winning and then blowing the game two nights in a row? My college statistics skills are a little rusty but the rough calculation is something like 1 in 3.4 gazillion! Damn you, Baseball Gods!
*****
Alex Cintron is on the DL and Freddie Bynum is back with the big club.
I have always been a fan of Cintron, even back to his early days with Arizona. Even though the production was not always there, I just love that guy as a player.
It's the same thing with Freddie Bynum. I'm just glad he's back. Somehow, I think he makes the team better.
*****
Adam Jones vs. Nick Markakis (rookie years)
Jones' Batting Markakis' Batting
April .263/.311/.389 .182/.270/.288
May .226/.273/.312 .254/.329/.338
June .323/.349/.455 .338/.403/.400
It's encouraging progress.
*****
I'm very curious to see how Adam Loewen performs out of the bullpen. More to come...
