Year End Thoughts

There are plenty of year end wrapups across the O's Blogosphere so instead of doing one myself, I'll just highlight the good works of others.

The very prolific Anthony Amobi has end of the year awards for the Baltimore Orioles over at Oriole Post.

At Oriole Magic, Heathir Irvin has an article meant as a Christmas wish list for O's fans but does a nice wrapup of the offseason action.

The best of the wrapups thus far has to be the blow-by-blow of 2007 by The Wayward Oriole.

The official 2007 retrospective by your Baltimore Orioles.

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I think Roch may have already posted a link to this but here is a link to the Top Ten Oriole Prospects according to TopProspectAlert.com.

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I had a horrible dream last night that Erik Bedard was traded to Seattle but Adam Jones was not included in the deal. But it was just a dream, a terrible, terrible dream.

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I'll give some love to a new blog called Swanz's Sandlot who did a nice impartial (he appears to be a fan neither team) breakdown of the Tejada to Houston deal.

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Well, that's all I got O's fans. Here's to a brighter 2008 season...

Base Hits: 12/28/2007

A self-righteous and sanctimonious guest column in The Baltimore Sun about the Mitchell Report and appropriate punishment for those implicated.

The author wishes for Major League Baseball to "rise to the occasion" to punish the cheaters:

It is not too late to send a clear message to the players who chose to cheat in order to get ahead: You are not welcome in our clubhouses, in our Hall of Fame or in our record books. Major League Baseball has the opportunity to restore the integrity of the game.

What Mr. Frenkil does not do is outline how to find out who the cheaters are. Does he really believe that the people named in the Mitchell Report are the only guilty parties? What about the players, including Roger Clemens, who claim the accusations are false? How does baseball decide who is telling the truth?

Mr. Frenkil also invokes the 1919 White Sox and the banishment of the cheaters like Kennesaw Mountain Landis did nearly 90 years ago. But where does it end?

I wonder if Mr. Frenkil is familiar with the case of Buck Weaver. Weaver is one of the infamous "eight men out" but was not banned from baseball because he cheated. He was banned because he had knowledge of the plot but did nothing to prevent it.

How many Buck Weavers were present during the Steroids Era? Dozens? Hundreds? There were players in the locker room who knew what was going on who did nothing. The union as a collective refused to allow the league to enact testing that would help alleviate the problem. Should all the players be held responsible? Where does baseball draw the line?

It's pretty clear cut when you stand up and moralize but once you start getting your hands dirty dealing out punishments gets messy indeed.

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On a sunnier note, I am adding a link to the Enchanting Sunshine blog's Oriole page. Lots of great pictures from years ago and from the present.

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Luis Hernandez, the heir apparent to Miguel Tejada at SS, stunk up the Venezuelan Winter League. Hernandez hit .216 and OPSed .551 for Tiburones de La Guaira. If that's the best he can do, he won't be in Baltimore long. Look for Brandon Fahey to make a strong run at the starting SS job this spring.

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Former Oriole LaTroy Hawkins returns to the Al East and signs a one year deal with the Yankees. Let the beatings commence.

The Crystal Ball '08: Nick Markakis

With all the flux and uncertainty with the Oriole roster this offseason it has been difficult to start any posts examining player performance for 2008. However, I think the safest bet is that Nick Markakis will still be patrolling right field in Camden Yards come April.

First, I present a thing of exquisite beauty. Ladies and gentlemen, Nick Markakis' 2007 hit chart for Oriole Park:




That's what I call hitting to all fields. I am moved. Allow me to shed a tear...(sniff)

What should we expect this year from Markakis? Last year I had hoped that he would slug .500 but he fell just short at .485. Still, hitting .300 with 23 HR and 43 doubles at the age of 23 is nothing to sneeze at.

You should always know your history and I couldn't imagine there would be too many players who posted those kind of numbers at 23. So I searched for all 23 year olds in Major League history who hit at least .290 with at least 40 doubles and 20 homers. The result? Only 16 other players have done it. Unfortunately, Nick is the only one of those players with under .500 SLG. The list includes names like Albert Pujols, Hank Greenberg and Aramis Ramirez. Markakis is never going to be a huge slugger like some of the guys on this list. His power is more line drive type power, which is good, but he's never going to be a guy who routinely hit 35 homers a year. Plus, he's faster than most of the guys on this list.

So I changed the criteria. Must hit .290 with 35 doubles with slugging not to exceed .515 nor be less than .475. Got it? Good.

This list yielded 13 names (including Cal Ripken, Jr.) but I thinned the herd further by including only outfielders. Of the four names left, Markakis compares most favorably to two players:

Hitter          Year     BA  2B  HR   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+
Enos Slaughter  1939   .320  52  12  .371 .482 .853  122
Ellis Burks     1988   .294  37  25  .367 .481 .848  131
 

Not too shabby a comparison. Slaughter is a Hall of Famer and Burks was an All-Star caliber player for many years.

So based on Marakis' 2007 stats and projecting them using Burks' and Slaughter's age 24 seasons, here's my guess for Nick's batting line for 2008:

Hitter          Year     BA  2B  HR   OBP   SLG   OPS
Nick Markakis   2008   .309  39  27  .365  .502  .867
 

I'll take those numbers any day.

O's to Dodger Town...Again?

Holy crap. In looking up the latest news about the Orioles home in Ft. Lauderdale and a potential move to Vero Beach, I noticed that I have been blogging about the Baltimore Orioles for exactly one year today. And my first post was regarding the Orioles Spring Training facility in Ft. Lauderdale. Well, it was interesting to me anyway... (See that previous post for a more complete assessment of the Oriole's Spring Training facility)

As that original post highlighted, the club had reached an agreement to stay in Ft. Lauderdale and improve the existing facility. Now, bureaucratic slowdowns have Baltimore eyeing Vero Beach once again.

I have stated this before but I must reiterate that the facility in Ft. Lauderdale is beyond crappy. On top of that, it reeks of Yankee. The Yankees used the facility before 1996 and Angelos and company haven't even given the place a fresh coat of paint in over 10 years. Observe the background of this picture:

Note the Yankee colors still present on the outside of the stadium. The interior (including the seats) are still done in Yankee colors. There is still a Yankees plaque next to the box office! Outrage!

Dodger Town, on the other hand, is beautiful. All you would need is a fresh coat of orange and black and it's ready to go. I hope, I hope. I hope that the O's move north to Vero Beach. It's a great facility and will save me about an hour and a half on the road the next time I go down.

Baltimore Orioles on HitTrackerOnline.com

A little fun with numbers during this lull in the Hot Stove action. Greg Ryabrcyk runs HitTrackerOnline.com and is obsessed with homeruns. As a result, he has developed various tools to determine how far homers actually fly, how atmospherics affect homeruns and who benefits from good or bad atmospheric conditions. I ran some reports on the Orioles to see if there was anything interesting (and I really have nothing better to do).

Hitter     HR
Markakis   23
Tejada     18
Millar     17
Huff       15
Mora       14

 

Now a look at the top homerun distances, standardized. Greg standardizes all homeruns as if they were hit on a clear 70 degree day and fell unobstructed to field level.

Hitter     Date     Std Dist
Tejada     4/2/07   428
Tejada     8/21/07  425
Millar     5/16/07  425
Hernandez  9/29/07  421
Markakis   5/14/07  415

 

Not too surprising that Tejada has the top two blasts on this list, he still possessed the best raw power on the team even if he doesn't display it on a regular basis. I never realized this before looking at these homerun numbers but Tejada hit 10 of his 18 homers in the month of August. I'm not sure how that escaped me before and I can't think of any player who has hit 10 homers in a month that didn't hit 20 total.

Next, a look at the top homeruns measured by speed off the bat (SOB) in mph.

Hitter     Date       SOB
Tejada     4/2/07     113.8
Markakis   8/28/07    113.6
Markakis   9/24/07    113.5
Millar     5/16/07    113.3
Mora       4/7/07     113.2
 

You can see how the ball just jumps off the bat for Nick Markakis and this comes as no surprise. The Hit Tracker also give an elevation angle on each homer and Nick's homers tend to be hit at an angle less than 35 degrees where most homers for a typical slugger get lofted out at an angle of 35-45 degrees. This shows Markakis' line drive power and also explains why he hits 43 doubles in addition to the 23 homers.

Here's the "No Doubt" homers which Hit Tracker defines as ball that clear the fence by 20 vertical feet and land 50 feet past the fence.

Hitter     HR
Huff       3
Gibbons    3
Mora       2
Tejada     2
Hernandez  1

 

Frustrating numbers here as you can see the power Huff possesses but is very inconsistent with. Same with Gibbons who only hit 7 HR in 2007 but 3 were killer shots.

On the flip side, here's the "Just Enough" homers. These clear the wall by less than 10 feet and barely leave the park.

Hitter     HR
Markakis   10
Roberts     8
Mora        5
Tejada      4
Hernandez   3

 

Markakis is not a real shock here due to the line drive nature of his power. Ditto for Roberts.

"Lucky Homers" are balls that would not have left the park on a calm, 70 degree day.

Hitter     HR
Mora       4
Roberts    4
Markakis   3
Millar     2
Patterson  2

 

As we have seen the declining power of Mora over the past three seasons, it is interesting that nearly a third of his homers last year were the result of favorable weather conditions. What happens if he's not so lucky next year?

Next time we'll take a look at how the O's pitchers fared in terms of the longball.

Base Hits: 12/24/2007

I have to apologize to Brian Roberts. I gave Roberts and his supporters a hard time when the Mitchell Report was released as everyone tried to explain away the flimsy evidence that was presented against him. I kept trumpeting the fact that Roberts was reportedly (according to the L.A. Times) named in the Jason Grimsley affidavit as well and that this was more than pure coincidence. Well, last week the affidavit was unsealed and the Times printed this retraction:

Baseball: A front-page article on Oct. 1, 2006, incorrectly reported that in a search warrant affidavit filed in May 2006 in federal court in Phoenix, an investigator alleged that pitcher Jason Grimsley named former teammates Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Brian Roberts and Jay Gibbons as players linked to performance-enhancing drugs. In the affidavit, which was unsealed Thursday, Grimsley did not name those players. The article also said Grimsley alleged that Miguel Tejada had used steroids. The only mention of Tejada in the affidavit was as part of a conversation with teammates about baseball's ban on amphetamines. The Times regrets the error.

Even though Brian has since admitted a dabbling in steroids once, it was unfair for me to characterize him the way I did based on an erroneous report. So I apologize for taking that report as fact.

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According to MLB Rumor Central on ESPN.com, the Brian Roberts to the Cubs and the Erik Bedard to the Mariners deals are not dead yet (at least as of Friday). Despite assertions to the contrary, I believe that Andy MacPhail will still be shopping Erik Bedard aggressively and I will be shocked if he is indeed the Opening Day starter for Baltimore in 2008. We shall see.

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Melvin Mora is squawking about moving to the outfield again. And I quote:

"I'm a third baseman. I won't play no left field [for the Orioles]. They traded [Miguel] Tejada for a left fielder," said Mora, referring to former Houston Astro Luke Scott. "Check my numbers. You can see where I play."

OK, let's check the numbers then.

Melvin Mora Homeruns 2007: 14 - 13th out of 14 AL 3B

Melvin Mora BA 2007: .274 - 8th out of 12 qualifying AL 3B

Melvin Mora OPS 2007: .759 - 8th out of 12 qualifying AL 3B

And even with the improvement in his fielding, Mora is still in the bottom third is just about every fielding metric you can reference.

However, if you put that production out in LF those are not bad numbers among AL LF. Thanks for being a team player Mel.

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It's merely a satire but I found this article about Kris and Anna Benson pretty funny.

Where Are They Now?: The 2002 Oriole Draftees

It's now been over 5 years since the 2002 draft and now it's time to check in to see...Where Are They Now!

1st Round - Adam Loewen - P - High School

It's early but so far this pick is right on schedule. The kid will be 24 next season and, if healthy, should be right there helping to anchor the rotation. Even while pitching through an injury early last season, Loewen performed well. So far, great pick.

2nd Round - Corey Shafer - C - High School

Shafer was quickly converted to an outfielder but hasn't distinguished himself in the minors, only rising as high as Class A Frederick. He did not play last year but I don't know whether that was due to injury or if he's been released. Not good either way.

3rd Round - Val Majewski - OF - Rutgers University

Majewski was on a fast track to the majors as of 2004 when he hit .307 with 15 homers at AA Bowie. Unfortunately, he tore the labrumin his left shoulder and missed all of 2005 due to injury. He has yet to regain his stroke and this season in Norfolk is probably his last chance to secure a future in this organization. So far, this is a push. there is no predicting injury.

4th Round - Tim Gilhooly - OF - University of the Pacific

Gilhooly never rose above low-A Aberdeen and last played in the organization in 2003 hitting .203 for his minor league career. Out of baseball.

5th Round - Hayden Penn - P - High School

Penn rocketed through the organization reaching Baltimore in only two years but still has yet to put it all together. He battled injury last season but has proven he can miss AAA bats. If healthy this year, he can restore his status in Norfolk and perhaps join the rotation in 2008. A push for now but good value for the 5th round.

6th Round - John Maine - P - UNC Charlotte

Maine was traded with Jorge Julio for Kris Benson prior to the 2006 season. Although he has enjoyed some modest success in New York, I have gone on record stating that it's all smoke and mirrors or more accurately all pitcher's park and stellar defense behind him. Anyway, I still think Maine may have projected as a serviceable long reliever for the O's and he was traded for a legitimate (if injured) major league pitcher. A good pick.

7th Round - Paul Henry - P - Ball State

Henry never had any success above low-A ball. Out of baseball.

8th Round - Ryan Hubele - C - Texas

Hubele spent most of the season at Bowie last year and may get a shot at holding a job in Norfolk this season. But at 27 with a career batting average of .248 in the minors, it is unlikely that Hubele will ever be a decent backup catcher in the majors.

9th Round - Trevor Caughey - P - High School

Caughey posted a 4.62 ERA over 5 seasons in the low minors. Out of baseball.

10th Round - Matt Boland - P - High School

Boland never made it out of the Gulf Coast League. Out of baseball.

It's too soon to really do a good assessment of this draft but with Orioles drafts during the Angelos years there isn't even glimpses of hope left among the top picks. Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn are pretty good prospects and poised to help this team in the near future. 12th round pick Brandon Fahey may turn out to be a serviceable utility player at the major league level. Compared to most drafts I've examined over the last year, this one isn't half bad.

Brian Roberts Admits Steroid Use

Brian Roberts admits to using steroids by injection, one time, in 2003.

I've gone on long enough about the denial many fans have been in about Roberts steroids implications but this proves them foolish to doubt that anybody in this era didn't at least dabble in the world of PEDs.

All that said, Brian Roberts is a standup guy for admitting it. Do I believe it was only once? At this point I have to and I don't hold it against him one bit. This process is about forgiving and moving on. I just wish all the players realized that and stopped running from these allegations. Good job by Roberts for facing up to what he did.

Ok, cool. Resume party...

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While most over at the Baltimore Sun want to give Roberts the benefit of the doubt, Rick Maese wonders why we should believe him at all?

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Oddly, the Oriole blogosphere is unusually quiet this morning. Where are you guys?

...And A Couple More Ducksnorts

Not all the proposed deals for Erik Bedard are dead as John Hickey writes in the Seattle Post-Intelligentcer. The Mariners are desperate for pitching and after being spurned by Hideki Kuroda (who signed with the Dodgers) Seattle has turned their attention back to Bedard.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Bedard is the second best pitcher who is being made available this offseason. Right now, the third best pitcher rumored to be traded is Joe Blanton and the A's are loathe to trade him to a division rival like Seattle. This bodes well for the O's who could demand young CF Adam Jones in the deal among several other prospects.

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A quick peek at what Houston gave up for Miguel Tejada and the Houston Chronicle's Steve Campbell wonders if it was worth it.

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Jeff of Lookout Landing ponders whether the Mariners would be best served by trading for Bedard. His findings? No.

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And finally, Advertising Age gives it's thoughts of the Mitchell Report's impact on the marketability of various baseball players under the following headline:


Baseball Sponsors Escape Mitchell Taint

Insert your own punchline...

Base Hits: 12/17/2007

Add former Oriole Mike Bordick and former Giant Bill Swift to the list of former big leaguers who believe that players using PED's should be punished but deny ever knowing that anyone was using in their own lockerooms.

Forget the irony that Bill Swift won 21 games for the Giants in a season that Barry Bonds was hitting 43 homers in support of him. Mike Bordick played for the A's and the O's from 1990-2002 but never had any inkling that any of this was going on. Considering the teammates he had at the time I find that very hard to believe.

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Curt Schilling urges other players to fess up and move on.

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Andy Pettite: Can you strikeout a batter while sitting injured on the bench? No? Then using illegal drugs to speed your return to the mound is still performance enhancing. Let's not kid ourselves. (Same to you Mr. Gibbons...)

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I saw in Peter Schmuck's column today there was a letter to season ticket holders that announced rising ticket prices, (classic Angelos and absurdly laughable in itself) that Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts were (tellingly?) not mentioned as players to "come out and see". Interesting.

The Gorilla In The Room

OK, get ready for the rant...

Up until now, I have avoided writing much about steroids in this blog outside of cursory mentions here and there. There are a lot of reasons for that.

First, I try to keep this blog very Oriole focused and so I would only think to address the issue if a current or former Baltimore player happened to be implicated or caught. To my chagrin, it's happened far more than I anticipated!

Secondly, I really don't care much about the subject. I know that players were using PEDs from roughly 1989-present and that there was no testing in place until 2004. I can live with that. I don't care who did it or who didn't because I don't believe we will ever know for sure. I believe it was so widespread that you can just slap that "Steroids Era" on the whole timeframe and be done with it.

You don't compare players against static records anyway. OK, a lot of people do but that's just silly. Was Pete Rose really a better hitter than Tony Gwynn because he has more hits? Maybe. The important thing is to look at a players career critically and not just the total stat. All the players who played in this time need to be compared to their peers whether you are looking at HOF credentials or just debating who was better than who. Thankfully, the thinking fan has those tools at his disposal.

What does this lead to? The cheapening of homerun totals for sure. Remember when 400 put you on the steps of Cooperstown and 500 was a slam dunk for induction? Kiss that goodbye. 400 doesn't even get you a sniff by itself. We will soon see guys with 500 on the outside looking in. All this is fine with me and I can live with it.

So I don't take it personally anymore when an Oriole or some other player I liked to root for gets caught or is implicated in a PED probe. The last time I felt that way was when Rafael Palmiero tested positive for steroids back in 2005. I wasn't particularly surprised that Jose Canseco's allegations about Palmiero turned out to be founded on some sort of fact. But when Raffy made that vehement denial in front of Congress and then got busted? Ouch. That told me that even the good guys (and Palmiero certainly was one of the good guys) were using and would lie, lie, lie to cover it up. Now everybody was under suspicion.

So why do I care about this Mitchell Report? Up to this point we have barely scratched the surface of this issue. The BALCO investigation brought out some names and there have been leaks here and there from the Jason Grimsley debacle and the HGH bust that netted Jay Gibbons, Gary Matthews Jr. and others. These are very isolated situations and very small, closed loops. But the names were in the press and many of these players were singled out and vilified.

Now the Mitchell Report has come along and revealed at least a couple more links in the chain. Former big league trainer Brian McNamee and former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski. Lots of names mentioned, some with more evidence against them than others, but it shows that the problem was a bit more pervasive than anyone really wanted to admit before.

Unfortunately, this report is still just scratching the surface. Do we really believe that there were no other trainers supplying PEDs during this time? There was an open market from MLB all the way down to the lowest levels of the minors and there was nothing stopping players from using. What about the notable missing names, the players who have been suspect in the past but have never been caught? Sammy Sosa, Brett Boone and others have been suspect in the court of public opinion for years. Where did Sammy get his stuff? Or Boone? Or Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Brady Anderson or scores of others who seemed to come out of nowhere to jack 35+ homers a season? Those who supplied the obvious "offenders" also supplied players who are not so obvious too. We've seen that in this report.

There is much more to be learned but we won't learn it anytime soon. Mitchell did not have subpoena power and could not compel anyone to cooperate if they didn't want to. Indeed, no active MLB player did. (more on that point later) The only hope that this report will really bring things to light in the near future is that Congress gets upset by the contents of the report and launches another investigation with real teeth behind it. It would be awesome. Subpoena power, taking statements under oath...that's where the real information will be spilled. Players (and others) who actually wanted to talk would now have an excuse to do so ("I was under oath buddy. I had no choice but to give up your name.") or be less compelled to cover it up since they would have much more to lose. Alas, this will probably not happen. The press seems happy to vilify Roger Clemens the same way they have vilified Bonds in recent years and not look much at the big picture.

On to the players, the commentary on the report by former players who are now baseball analysts was something I hadn't considered before but was one of the most telling parts of the day. As the report was being released, I was alternately amused and sickened listening to these former players continue to stonewall and hide their heads in the sand. On MLB.com, I had the displeasure of listening to Harold Reynolds, Eduardo Perez and Brian Mcrae all continue to either deny or diminish the severity of the problem during the 90's. Now I'll give Harold Reynolds a bit of a pass on this since he retired after the strike shortened 1994 season and most of his clubhouse experiences were in the 1980's. But Perez and Mcrae? Perez played from 1993-2006 and McRae played from 1990-1999. They were in clubhouses 162 games a year during the height of "The Steroids Era" but seemingly never heard or saw anything. When asked, they would reply with something like, "I had tunnel vision in the locker room. I just went about my business, played ball and went home." Later in the interview they would hilariously imply that the owners and management probably knew more about it than they let on.

One of the more extreme examples so far has been John Kruk who opined on ESPN last night that he didn't see what the big deal about this report was because "There's only three big names in this report!". Thankfully, Fire Joe Morgan printed a few more of his quotes:

You know -- most of this is all hearsay. You heard Roger Cossack say that this stuff wouldn't stand up in a court. The thing I keep hearing from Mitchell and from Bud Selig is this: "Now we move forward. Now we move forward." If you want to move forward, why do you bring up names from the past who have nothing to do with the game of baseball right now? Mo Vaughn, Lenny Dykstra, David Justice -- guys who aren't involved in the game anymore. Why bring up their names? If you want to clean the game up, clean the game up. Those guys aren't dirtying the game anymore. They're out of it. So leave 'em out of it and move forward and get the guys who are. But again -- why do you gotta name the names? What is the purpose of naming the names of these people? Is it to satisfy the public? Is it to satisfy themselves? Why drag 'em all through the mud? Let them go. You got 'em, you call 'em in separately, privately, and you say, "Here's what we got on you, now you talk." If they don't want to talk, then you can do something as far as suspension. But you -- you don't have to get out in the public with this.

And this gem:

But you can't prove that they took anything! Just because you have 'em doesn't mean you took 'em. Now, common sense tells you if you're purchasing them you're probably going to use 'em also, but -- if there's no drug test, no failed drug test, how can you suspend anyone by hearsay? I mean, that's like arresting someone at 12 o'clock in the afternoon, saying, "About a week ago, you had a couple drinks and you were driving, so we're going to arrest you now." You can't do it unless you prove it.

Genius.

There will be more of this over the next couple of weeks as the players' fraternity falls all over themselves to protect one another.

There was also Bud Selig's sanctimonious speech about taking action or some nonsense. I'm not sure how you can take action against players now for things they've done before these things were punishable by the league. Wrong way to go here.

There is no need for punishment, there should be no ramifications for Hall of Fame voting. Nothing. It's punishment enough for a player to be named. Simply bringing the stories into the light of day does far more for the game than any punishment ever could.

Some people out here in the blogosphere are making excuses for Brian Roberts (in my opinion) simply because he is a popular player and the evidence in the Mitchell Report is so flimsy against him. Admittedly, I would give Roberts a pass if he came out and strongly denied the claim.

Unfortunately, this isn't the first time Roberts has been implicated. His name also turned up on the Jason Grimsley affidavit (along with Miguel Tejada and Jay Gibbons...two players who had harder evidence turn up against them later).

And you can't ignore his spike in performance in 2005 given the other allegations. Here's a guy who never slugged .400 above rookie ball who suddenly slugs over .500 over the course of a full season in the majors and then continues to slug .400+ the last two years.

What does this whole long rant mean? I'm just frustrated. Not because I'm fretting about the sanctity of the record books, not because I'm concerned about competitive balance or because I fear the game has been besmirched. I already imagine the worst and it doesn't bother me. What does bother me is all the players, whether they used PEDs or not, will lie, concoct flimsy excuses and pretend none of this ever happened just to cover their asses or the assess of their buddies and peers.

I will continue to highlight that hypocrisy but hopefully I will have to discuss this no further for the foreseeable future.

Reaction to the Tejada Trade

National reaction to the Tejada trade has been surprisingly positive, something rare for Baltimore is recent years.

Baseball America sums it up like this:

While the Orioles didn't get a frontline prospect in exchange for the final two years of Tejada's deal, they did add rotation depth, with upside, in the form of Albers and Patton—not to mention an accomplished power bat in Scott.

Not exactly glowing but not bad, right?

Keith Law over at ESPN.com usually savages the Orioles as a hobby but he seems to believe that Baltimore got the better end of the deal. Since it's subscription, here's the meat of the matter:

By acquiring Miguel Tejada, the Astros seem hellbent on trying to contend in 2008, and the Orioles are the happy beneficiaries. In Tejada, Houston gets a good player who's already in decline and [Baltimore] receives a good mix of quantity and quality in return...

Baltimore gets a big haul considering Tejada's declining performance and healthy contract. The two central guys in the deal are the young starting pitchers. Left-hander Troy Patton has been a top Houston prospect for several years, and while his stuff hasn't ticked upward as projected, he has good feel of an arsenal that includes a four-seamer at 88-92 mph, a plus changeup with good arm speed and fading action, and a fringy slider at 80-84 mph that has some tilt but tends to flatten out. He projects as a solid No. 4 starter, although he comes open a bit in his delivery and has had minor shoulder problems on and off as a pro.

Right-hander Matt Albers is the other side of the coin; where Patton has good command of average stuff, Albers has below-average command of good stuff, with two pitches that project as plus -- a fastball at 92-96 mph and a hard curveball in the low 80s with a very sharp break. He lacks a solid third pitch to get lefties out, and his command has a long way to go, but his arm is too good to be included in a big package like this.

Baltimore also picked up three other players, although none figure into the Orioles' long-term plans just yet. Luke Scott, a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder coveted by a number of other clubs to be part of a platoon solution in left or right field; his defense is shaky but he shines against right-handed pitching. Don't be surprised if the Orioles keep him moving in a second deal.

Right-hander Dennis Sarfate has an outstanding arm, with a 95-98 mph fastball and good downhill plane, but his control ranges from bad to horrid, and he's just a good lottery ticket for the Orioles at this point, which makes him a good fourth guy in a deal. Mike Costanzo projects as a quadruple-A player; he has trouble making contact with better stuff and is very rough at third base.

It's hard to make sense of this deal for Houston, a club that continues to act like a contender despite going 73-89 last year with no real reason to expect the in-house personnel to improve.

More to come...

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As an aside, The Mitchell Report will be released within the next couple of hours. While I usually don't chase all these PED stories, I find myself distracted waiting for this report to be released. I think it's a really big step to clearing the air even if, as I've said before, I think it'll be 20 years down the line before we get a real good picture of how rampant all of this was.

A Quick Thought

A few weeks back, I mentioned the Orioles might want to look at platoons for the near future since they can be a good way of getting good value from flawed players. I thought I might look at what a Luke Scott (facing righties) and Jay Payton (facing lefties) platooning in left might look like.

               AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Luke Scott    .273    .366    .516    .882
Jay Payton    .281    .325    .432    .757

Luke Payton   .277    .354    .503    .857

Now, I'm not saying Scott needs to be platooned. With only 763 PA in his career it may be too early for that and he may be able to maintain a better average than he showed last year. But it is interesting when you consider Payton's greater value as a fielder.

So, Scott would bring patience and power while Payton supplies better contact and fielding.

WWED?


(What would Earl do?)

THE TEJADA ERA IS OVER!

McPhail sends O's shortstop to Houston

Miguel Tejada has finally been traded. This is pretty exciting, not because I didn't like Tejada as a player because I think I liked him more than most but because this signals a big shift in philosophy for the organization and means more change is soon to come.

The primary piece that Baltimore received was OF Luke Scott. Scott is a flawed player but you can stick him in LF and he's an immediate improvement over what we've had over the past three years. Scott hit only .255 and struck out 95 times in 132 games last year but also hit 18 HR, slugged over .500 and got on base at a .351 clip. He brings some pop and some patience to a lineup that desperately needs it. On top of that, he is a serviceable defender.

Now, I would have given up Tejada for Scott and a bag of balls but McPhail seems to have gotten some real interesting players that could be contributing in Baltimore sooner rather than later.

3B Mike Costanzo will be 24 next season and hit .270 with 27 homers at AA Reading last season. He is a legitimate slugging prospect at a corner infield position.

RP Dennis Sarfate is a big righty who misses bats but has problems with control. He has had brief big league experience the last two seasons and has performed well. Getting players like this will help the O's rebuild the bullpen on the cheap.

SP Troy Patton will only be 22 next season and started 2 games for the Astros last season going 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy but has nice control as he rarely issues walks. He'll be able to battle for a spot in the rotation in Spring Training. Oh yeah, he's a lefty.

RP Matt Albers started and relieved for Houston last season with so-so results. Look for him to be a long relief guy in Baltimore if he cuts the mustard.

I love this trade. The O's unloaded a big contact and got some players that will make immediate impacts, some that will help down the road and all addressed needs within the organization to some extent.

I give the trade an A at this point.

Rule 5 Review

Major League Phase

Randor Bierd - RP - Tigers

Last season in A and AA (AA primarily) went 4-3 striking out 81 over 67.2 innings. The big 24 year old righty is a strikeout machine and, I think, a good bet to stick in the bullpen in 2008. I mean, really, could he be any worse than what we had last year? I like the choice and shockingly at least one member of the national press does too. Chris Constancio (who follows minor league prospects) wrote an article over at The Hardball Times that examines some of Bierd's credentials and ranks him as the #1 pitching prospect taken in the Rule 5 draft.

AAA Phase

Ryan Rodriguez - RP - White Sox

A big lefty reliever this time, only 23, with good but not great peripherals, a bad record and ERA but was better once he switched to relief.

I am going to guess this guy has something the scouts like and think he can be coaxed into better performance because I see no evidence in any of the numbers that this guy is better than anything we already have at Norfolk.

Tim Brown - 1B - Padres

Drafted by Pirates back in 2001, Brown struggled for four years and was released. In 2005, he played for Kalamazoo in the independent league and got his stroke back hitting .323. The Padres signed him and put him in high A where he excelled again hitting .300. He hit .273 and 13 homers for AA San Antonio last season and has fairly good control of the strikezone with a career OBP of .391. We really don't have anybody better to play 1B at Norfolk so this isn't a bad pick either.

AA Phase

J.P. Martinez - RP - Twins

This righty reliever put up great numbers, especially big strikeout totals until hitting a bump last year when he reached AA level. He'll be at Bowie trying to recapture that magic at the ripe old age of 26.

Winter Meetings Wrap-up

As the Winter Meetings come to a close, the Oriole roster remains the same as it was when the meetings started on Monday. That doesn't mean things aren't in the works though.

Erik Bedard

According to the Nashville Confidential blog on MLB.com:

...pitching is still at a premium...It's why the Orioles, who are listening to offers for Erik Bedard, have had inquiries from no fewer than 11 teams regarding the sensational left-hander.

That number of teams showing interest is pretty encouraging that something will get done and the Baltimore will get pretty good value for Bedard. The rumored offers so far:

Dodgers: OF Matt Kemp and RP Jonathan Broxton
Mariners: OF Adam Jones and other various prospects
Mets: OF Carlos Gomez, RP Aaron Heilman and SP Philip Humber

As I've said before, I love the Dodger offer. Matt Kemp can take over in left immediately and Broxton has closer type stuff. Now that LA has signed Andruw Jones, they have too many outfielders.

Adam Jones is a centerfielder with some pop and is intriguing as well. The Mets offer is not good enough in my opinion.

Miguel Tejada

Not much talk about Tejada although now that Miguel Cabrera is in Detroit you would expect teams with 3B needs will start to put together some offers. Obviously, it will take much less to pry Tejada away.

Brian Roberts

A surprise addition to the rumor mill, Brain Roberts is evidently highly valued by the Cubs. Early reports had two pitchers (Rich Hill among them) and OF Matt Murton heading to Charm City but the subsequent reports seem to indicate Chicago is not willing to give up Hill.

The only other news to come out today in that OF Jay Gibbons has been suspended for 15 days for violating the drug policy. It's an old story and a non-story. The only surprise to me is that the suspension is so short.

More analysis of the Rule V draft later...

Rule 5 Draft: O's Get A Reliever

The Orioles have selected RP Randor Bierd, a big Dominican righty that was in the Tiger farm system. Big strikeout guy, finished the season at AA last year. Probably a pretty good bet to stick with the big club and a decent selection I'd say.

More to come...

Winter Meetings Part II

This on the Winter Meetings from Peter Schmuck earlier this week:

I've heard the argument that Bedard will be worth just as much or more in July as he's worth now, which might be true if you could guarantee he'll be healthy and productive at midseason. I've also heard how the Orioles have to be extra cautious because they only have so many tradable players and can't afford to make a mistake.Of course, it's that kind of thinking that has made them one of baseball's most timid teams at trade time since the Glenn Davis disaster of the early 1990s.

The Glen Davis trade set the O's back at least 5 years when they made it. They gave up Pete Harnisch, Curt Schilling and Steve Finley for that guy. Think about it. I'd be timid too after that. Or at least a little cautious.

If they hang on to Bedard without signing him long term, they become vulnerable not only to another injury but also to the possibility that he could make it difficult to complete a deal next year by telegraphing a firm intention to enter the free-agent market after the 2009 season. If you think he's above that sort of thing, you haven't met him.

The Orioles would be vulnerable to an injury whether they sign him or not. Look, I agree that you need to move Bedard while his value is peaking but I doubt his value will be any less in March than it is now. You have to make the right deal. (I think that deal involves the Dodgers and includes Matt Kemp but that's just my opinion now isn't it?)

The most compelling reason for decisive action, however, has nothing to do with the circumstances of the individual players. The Orioles cannot wait an additional six months or a year because they already have waited long enough.

Truly one of the dumbest things I've read in quite a long time. Circumstances be damned! We've waited long enough and demand change? If you don't take into account the circumstances of the individual players, why not just give them away?

Look, the circumstances are these: Miguel Tejada is still one of the better offensive shortstops in the league and although his glove isn't what it once was, he is still an average fielder. Erik Bedard is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is a great value since he is still two full years away from free agency. These are great bargaining chips and you can't ignore that fact and make a deal for the sake of a deal.

*****

Andy MacPhail is in no hurry to make a deal according to Jeff Zrebiec. Nor should he be! My feeling is that MacPhail really would like to make a deal this week but this is how you play poker or buy a used car. If you show desperation, you're done. MacPhail has the high hand here and he knows it, especially when it comes to moving Bedard.

This isn't MacPhail's first time at the rodeo and he had some pretty good mentors in his father and grandfather. I think we'll make out just fine.

*****

The Mets offering Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber and Aaron Heilman of Erik Bedard has been one of the most consistent rumors in Nashville this week. Not thick enough! Let me get this straight. You want to get one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL at a bargain basement salary for a light hitting but speedy outfielder, a pitcher with an 18-19 record and an ERA over 4.00 in his minor league career and a journeyman long relief man? Get out Omar Minaya! Get out of my office!

(notebook hurled at the wall as a frightened Minaya flees)

Winter Meetings

Am I crazy to think these might be the most significant set of Winter Meetings for this club in more than 10 years? I hope I'm right.

Jaret Wright and Kris Benson were not offered arbitration, as expected. Some people thought Corey Patterson and Paul Bako might be but they were not offered arbitration either. Corey Patterson was a possibility since Dave Trembley values his defense and his baserunning prowess but Patterson would have received a high salary for one year, I would estimate somewhere in the $7-9 million range. Think that's crazy? Look at his numbers compared to Gary Matthews Jr. who make considerably more. That number would not be in line with his true market value. Expect the O's to pursue Patterson but not to get in a bidding war for him.

Baltimore shouldn't be offering Paul Bako a hand of friendship let alone arbitration but there are hints in the press that Bako may be back next season. Aaaaagh! I won't believe it, I refuse to believe it...

BTW, none of these fellows ranked high enough to garner Baltimore any draft picks had they offered them arbitration so nothing lost.

Base Hits: 11/30/2007

I guess I need to applaud the organization when they do something right, like invest in a baseball complex in the Dominican Republic. This will help the Orioles increase their scouting presence in Latin America (which was pratically nil) and is a good step in the right direction. It's stating the obvious but the farm system really needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. This should be the first step in a long process.

*****

There had been talk (to my shock and horror) that the Orioles might sign SS Cesar Izturis instead of letting Luis Hernandez learn on the job next season. It's a great relief to know that the Cardinals signed him to replace David Eckstein at short. Why?

"We definitely value his defense," general manager John Mozeliak said on Friday afternoon. "We also think that offensively there could be more in there. Speaking with our staff, we felt that we could probably tap into a little bit more there, as well."

Let's make one thing clear. Izturis is no longer even an above average defensive shortstop and hasn't been since 2005. This is the same kind of crap you heard from Oriole brass about Paul Bako even though his defensive skills had long since eroded. These guys get a rep and they never seem to lose it. Eckstein's range was actually better than Izturis the last two seasons and Izturis fielding percentage is only marginally better. I don't get these GM's sometimes.

OK, now I'll say something nice about Izturis. He signed a baseball for my son at Dodgertown a couple of years ago. There.

*****

A sculptor named Bill Rains is sculpting a statue of Dave McNally for a new ballpark in Billings, Montana.

I will now tell the story of the time my father faced Dave McNally. Gather round children.

My father was a pretty good ballplayer and his team faced McNally's team for the Montana state championship. Dad was pretty good and played with boys a couple years older than he was so he was only 13 when he faced off against the 18 year old McNally. Dad went in to pinch hit at some point and said the first pitch was a sweeping curveball that looked like it was heading for his head so he bailed out only to have the ball break sharply back over the plate for strike one.

My father thought to himself that he was ready for that pitch and he would hang in there and wait for the break this time. This time however, the pitch didn't break and drilled Dad right between the shoulder blades. He caught his breath, tried not to cry and trotted down to first.

After the game (which McNally won), McNally walked off the field and met with the Oriole scout and signed his first professional contract.

(Paul Harvey voice) And now you know....the rest of the story.

Don't Look Back In Anger

With a lull in the offseason action before the winter meetings, a look back at some items from the past season...

John Maine

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth was heard from some Baltimore fans about the O's trading away John Maine as an afterthought in the Kris Benson deal. Even my faith was shaken a bit early this season as Maine was looking like the real deal, pitcher's park and lack of DHs to face aside. The more I predicted his demise, the better he seemed to pitch. Well, at season's end it looks like Maine is beginning to come down to earth.

After a 10-4, 2.71 ERA first half, Maine posted a 4-6 record with a 5.53 ERA after the All-Star break. Pitching in a pitcher's park. In front of arguably the best defense in the NL. I'll say it again, no way a flyball pitcher like Maine succeeds in the AL, certainly not at Oriole Park. I expect his 3.91 ERA will be about the kind of pitcher he is, at least when he is under the best of circumstances.

Rodrigo Lopez

I thought it was a mistake to let Lopez go since I prophetically guessed that there would be injuries in the rotation this season. But Lopez got hurt out in Colorado and missed most of the season anyway so it all became a moot point.

But we did get a couple of minor league relievers that can strike batters out and keep the ball in the park. Jason Burch was hurt for most of the season but came back to pitch well for Frederick this year. Jim Miller excelled in Bowie and got called up to Norfolk before season's end. Both are young and miss bats so they may provide some inexpensive relief options for the O's in a couple of years. In retrospect, the trade wasn't so bad after all and I'm not even taking into consideration that Lopez had become a malcontent.

The Great Bullpen Experiment

The O's made news last offseason by quickly signing some free agent relievers to the tune of $42 million. How'd that work out?

Chad Bradford was overworked by Sam Perlozzo in my opinion but Dave Trembley nipped that in the bud and got him into a more reasonable 78 games when he was once on a pace for 90+. Bradford was forced to pitch in situations that he was not suited for due to injuries but still posted a very good 3.34 ERA and had 6 Win Shares out of the bullpen. Worth every penny.

Jamie Walker was also overworked a bit by the former manager but still posted a 3.23 ERA over 81 games and contributed 7 Win Shares out of the bullpen. Again, worth every penny.

Danys Baez sucked and as it turned out, he was hurt anyway. Baez got the biggest contract of the free agent relievers which was ironic because he had the most questionable credentials. He's had Tommy John surgery and who knows when he'll be back. Disaster.

Scott Williamson was signed for $900,000 to see if he could recapture that lightning that once resided in his right arm. He couldn't and was released after 16 appearances. But for the price of a Paul Bako, he was worth a flier. This one's a push.

The free agent relievers weren't the disaster they were portrayed to be but when your bullpen is still horrific with help from competent veterans, it doesn't help your case.

Jay Payton

Giving Payton $4.5 million per year was a questionable call made all the more so because the version we fans were treated to was not very Payton-y. However, the Orioles were desperate to find somebody to help out in leftfield so you can forgive them for reaching. Payton responded by posting the worst season of his career. (I'm beginning to think leftfield at Camden Yards is cursed. Curse of Conine? Or Surhoff?)

The last time Payton was so bad with the bat was 2002 and he responded the next year with the best year of his career. Hopefully, this is the case in 2008 and we can trade him to a contender for prospects during the season.

Base Hits: 11/28/2007

After engaging in a little double speak about changing positions earlier this offseason, Melvin Mora will reportedly play winter ball in Venezuela and split time between third base and the outfield. Less than a month ago Mora stated the following about moving off of third base:

"I don't want to play those games," he said. "I'm one of the best third basemen in the American League and in baseball. If you are going to move me, you have to make the team more competitive."

I guess someone forgot to tell him at the time that moving to left would make the O's more competitive. You know, filling a gaping hole in left and allowing better production at third (Tejada) as well as improving defense and perhaps a steady bat at short (Hernandez). Nice to see that he finally got the message...

***

I never weighed in on the Aubrey Huff nonsense but since Andy McPhail is still pondering punishment, I'll beat this dead horse a little more.

I have Sirius radio and although I don't listen to Bubba the Love Sponge, I do listen to Howard Stern and have an idea of what goes down on Bubba's show. Imagine the uncensored Howard Stern program...only rawer and more profane. That pretty much sums it up.

I don't think anything Aubrey talked about on Bubba's show was in bad taste. OK, it was in really bad taste but I don't think I was surprised at the activities Aubrey described. I was in the Navy and when hanging out with a bunch of single guys of the ages of 18-30, I'd say about 75% of us were involved in at least one of the activities Huff spoke about. Chasing women? Watching porn? Drinking? Hanging out with strippers and porn stars? Is anyone really shocked that single professional ballplayers engage in such activities? I'm not. I would imagine the 75% rule applies to them too.

His comments about Baltimore seemed to stem from questions about the nightlife and on that point, Aubrey's absolutely correct. Fell's Point is great but it's not Ybor City by a long shot.

That being said, maybe Aubrey needs to familiarize himself more with the batting cages and less with the watering holes and meat markets next season...

***

Former Oriole player and manager Davey Johnson will be up for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame as a manager, not a player.

***

Talks between the Dodgers and Orioles have stalled as Baltimore would rather sign Erik Bedard long term than trade him. I don't spend much time speculating on trades but Matt Kemp would be a wonderful addition if Bedard cannot be signed.

Out of Commission

I've been laid out by a fairly serious infection for most of the last few weeks but decided now is the time to get back to blogging.



The fall leagues are wrapping up and since I haven't seen it talked about anywhere else, I thought I'd highlight the Oriole prospects in Arizona and Hawaii.



Arizona Fall League



The O's prospects helped the Phoenix Desertdogs to the AFL title as they beat the Surprise Rafters in the championship game 7-2. OF Nolan Reimold went 2-5 and scored a run while RP Bob McCrory struck out two as he pitched a scoreless 9th.



But the real story for the O's is Arizona was the debut of Jake Arrietta as he dominated the cream of the crop of minor league batters in his first professional games. Check this out: 14 games, 16 IP, 16K, 7 BB, 0.94 WHIP and a record of 1-0. Oh, let's not forget the 0.00 ERA. That's an impressive start for Arrieta against professionals of any level but he did it against the best minor league hitters in baseball. You still have to think he'll start in Bowie this spring but he might rise a lot faster than anyone imagined.



RP Bob McCrory led the league in saves with 5 and posted a 1.50 ERA while striking out 11 in 12 IP.



Every other player of note was a good news/bad news situation.



Hayden Penn

Good News: He led the league in strikeouts with 27 in only 21.1 innings

Bad News: He also posted a 6.45 ERA with only one win



Nolan Reimold

Good News: He led the league in homers (6) and RBI (23)

Bad News: He only hit .245 and struck out 33 times in 29 games.



Look for Penn and Reimold to both start in AAA and spend most of the season there.



When I actually watch the championship game I may have a couple more observations.



Hawaii Winter League



The Honolulu Sharks lost the division race on the last day of the regular schedule and will not be playing in today's championship game.



What the Sharks were able to do is to showcase some Oriole prospects who can flat out hit.



IF Brandon Snyder took the league batting title hitting .378 and slugging .544. Snyder hit 2 hoeruns but showed he can rack up all kinds of basehits including two triples. C Matt Wieters had a successful professional debut hitting .284 with 9 doubles and a homerun in 30 games played. Almost as impressive was the fact that he struck out only 15 times and walked 12 times. That's pretty good control of the strike zone for a green player like Wieters. Coming on strong later in the season, 2B Miguel Abreu posted very impressive power/speed numbers, hitting .297 hitting 2 homers and stealing 8 SB in 34 games. He's not too patient (only 1 walk) but I'd keep an eye on him at high A Frederick next season.



Chad Thall and Brett Bordes pitched well out of the bullpen, both striking out around a batter an inning.



More to come, lots to catch up on!

Base Hits: 10/29/2007

LaTroy Hawkins had some not so nice things to say about playing for Baltimore in 2006. He didn't really balst the organization, just addressed the general feeling of negativity that permeated the club.

Speaking of Hawkins, he's a big, tall righty that tried but failed at being a starter. Once he turned 27, the Twins turned him into a reliever and he flourished. Daniel Cabrera is a big, tall righty who just turned 27. Just sayin'...

*****

Thank god the World Series is over. No more Tim McCarver until spring...

Joe Torre is gone and now A-Rod has opted out of his contract. The Yankees are weaker and that only helps the Orioles. Whether they can take advantage of it is another issue.

*****

Brandon Snyder is still tearing up the Hawaiian League is hitting .379 and OPSing .992. Snyder has two triples which surprised me but he had four in Delmarva last year. Pretty impressive baserunning for a former catcher.

Matt Wieters is hitting .302 and hit his first professional homerun this week. He is OPSing .876.

Base Hits: 10/25/2007

First a question: Would any O's fans be interested in bringing back Mike Mussina next season? Would he be able to fill in as a 4th starter so that some of the young guys could continue to develop in the minors? Just asking.

*****

Andy Etchebarren, manager of the Aberdeen Ironbirds, was dismissed yesterday. He joins Bowie manager Bien Figueroa, minor league pitching coordinator Doc Watson and roving infield instructor Tom Lawless on the scrapheap. I'm all for this, the problems within the organization are multifold and you need to purge the minor leagues and start building from the bottom up.

I can't neglect to give Etchebarren his proper send-off from the organization. He was an old-time Oriole catcher from the mid-60's to mid-70's. He wasn't a great offensive threat but he was a Yankee killer, hitting .270 and hit 10 of his 58 career homers against New York. He also single handedly beat the Tigers once in 1970 by launching a homer and driving in 6 in a 10-2 win.

So maybe he wasn't much of a coach but he was a heck of a player in his day.

*****

Hayden Penn pitched three innings last night for the Phoenix Devil Dogs gave up two runs but only walked 1 and struck out 6. Only one ball was sharply hit so most of the damage came on bunts and bloop singles. It was an encouraging start for Penn who has been rocked thus far in the AFL. Over 6 innings in relief, the Dogs pen could only strike out 2 more batters so it wasn't like this was a free swinging bunch. The 6 K's were very impressive against what was essentially a minor league all-star team.

*****

Note to Dave Trembley: Given the inability of the Orioles to attract free agents and the lack of talent in the minors, consider looking back to Earl Weaver and finding some players to platoon in some positions. LF, CF, 1B and maybe 3B would all be candidates. I'll be thinking of some options...

Umm...There Are Still Some Orioles Playing Ball...

...you know, the future of the organization. So if everyone can lighten up about Kevin Millar and his supposed "slap in the face" to Baltimore Oriole fans everywhere (sarcasm) maybe we can start talking about on the field performances. Great.

Hawaiian Winter League

Remember all the drama over whether Matt Wieters would get signed? Well now he's playing his first professional games and the Oriole blogosphere seems not to notice. (OK, OK, I'll get off my soapbox...) Wieters is playing for the Honolulu Sharks along with a few other young Orioles this winter and has been for almost three weeks now. For those of you not familiar with the Hawaiian League, it's where major league franchises are sending some of their top low-level talent for seasoning. Nobody there has played above A-ball. So how is everyone doing?

Matt Wieters - Matt's not exactly tearing the cover off the ball yet but is hitting a very respectable .298 and OPS'ing 829. No homers yet but he does have 6 doubles and is being very patient at the plate (8BB to 5K's so far) which is always encouraging for a young hitter.

Brandon Snyder - The O's former catcher-of-the-future has distinguished himself so far (an understatement) by hitting .378 (good for third in the league) and slugging .568 so far. Only 1 homer through 12 games but has rapped 2 doubles and a triple for the Sharks. I guess he's really gotten over his injuries?

Others of note: A couple of lefty pitchers are shining in relief as Brett Bordes has posted a 2.70 ERA and Chad Thall has a 2.13 ERA. Thall has 10 K's and 5 BB to boot...Reliever Ryan Ouellette has struck out 11 over 12.1 innings but is sporting a rough 7.30 ERA as well...IF/OF Miguel Abreu is hitting a mere .200 but is among the league leaders in steals with 5 and has yet to be caught.

Arizona Fall League

There is less to look at here since most of the Oriole's upper level prospects are perhaps not really very good but there are a couple bright spots. The AFL features top prospects from various organizations who are usually at the AA or AAA level.

Jake Arrieta - 2007 draftee has been pitching well in relief (although I think the O's envision him as a starter) for the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Over 8 innings Arrieta has a 0.00 ERA, 6 K's and 3 walks. It speaks volumes that Baltimore sent him to Arizona and it will speak volumes more if he continues to find success against the best players in the minors. He could be in Baltimore sooner than anyone realizes.

Nolan Reimold - He's only hitting .206 at the moment but is slugging .500 with 3 HR in just 11 games. Reimold is a long shot to be on the big club for sure but in 2009 he could be the answer in leftfield...if he stays healthy.

Jim Johnson - I can't figure out if I'm just selling this guy short but he continues to have success at almost every level he pitches. (Well, relative success for expectations...) Another Oriole starter being deployed in relief, Johnson is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in 5 appearances for Phoenix.

Others of Note: Hayden Penn has been lit up in two starts (that only lasted 3.0 innings total) and is stuck with a 21.00 ERA...Jeff Fiorentino is hitting just .100 and a weak one at that...Bob McCrory has gathered 4 saves in the early going and has posted a 1.93 ERA

It's certainly no consolation but O's fans still have something to root for! The Phoenix Desert Dogs are leading their division with an 8-3 record and Honolulu is 10-8 and leading the East division in Hawaii. It's not much but it's still more constructive that griping about Kevin Millar.

Keys To The Season Revisited: Final

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season



The team ERA last year was 5.35 so the target was 4.35. While that looked attainable for most of the year, the team finished at 5.19 and Leo Mazzone got fired. The pitching staff still has a long, long way to go and improvement was going to be the biggest key to a winning 2007. Instead, it imploded and the Baltimore Orioles lost nearly 100 games.



2. Markakis hits 25



Markakis only hit 23 but 25 was only a quick reference to imporved slugging for the young rightfielder. Markakis hit 43 doubles in addition to leading the team in homers and slugged near .500 (.485). Mission accomplished, Nick has arrived as the best all-around hitter on the team.



3. Increased production from LF



Orioles leftfielders OPS'ed .631 in 2007...down from the historically bad number of .681 set in 2006. Centerfield (mainly Corey Patterson) production regressed as well. Bad stuff in the outfield if you're not named Markakis. Putrid.



4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005



OK, 2004 was right out the window. And so was 2005. Although he wasn't as bad as as he was in 2006, he wasn't much better in 2007. Outside of much improved glovework at the hot corner, Melvin brought little to the table in 2007. Failed.



5. Health



Ramon Hernandez was played injured most of the year. Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora went down for awhile. Bedard and Gutherie missed significant time and Kris Benson, Adam Loewen and Jaret Wright never got started. No dice.



1 out of 5 equals 69 wins.

And Don't Forget About Rick Kranitz

I can't believe I left him out of the last post. The ERA+ for the Florida Marlins (Kranitz's old team) for the two years Kranitz was pitching coach and the two years prior to his tenure:

2004 100
2005 95
2006 99
2007 87

I mean, obviously he did a good job in 2006 after the departure of Josh Beckett and A. J. Burnett but last year the staff for the Marlins didn't perform anywhere near to expectations. Well, he's ours now so we'll see what happens.

Tim McCarver is a Douchebag...

...sorry, just had to get it out of my system.

Just saw Kevin Millar throw out the first pitch in Boston and give Boston's starting lineup. There's my Baltimore tie-in for the ALCS.

OK, so who had Leo Mazzone getting fired and Terry Crowley keeping his job?

First, I love the fact that Dave Trembley is cleaning house. It certainly appears that the club has given him great sway in choosing his staff (even some people in the minor league organization) and the firing of Mazzone bears that out. Statistically speaking, as I posted at the end of September, the pitching staff under Mazzone has actually regressed:



Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2004 and 2005: 101 and 106 respectively
Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2006 and 2007: 84 and 88 respectively

Was it all his fault? No. The material was very weak to begin with but Mazzone had issues helping out bullpen pitchers in Atlanta too. Maybe Trembley decided they needed someone a bit more well-rounded?

Jim Duquette is gone now and Mike Flanagan's role will, it seems, be greatly reduced if he remains in the organization.

First base coach Sam Treijas resigned and bench coach Tom Trebelhorn was fired.

But against all odds, Terry Crowley remains! Evidently, Nick Markakis speaks highly of him. You can't get a better endorsement in Baltimore than that. Personally, I find the role of a major league hitting coach pretty overrated. Once you get to majors, a player who can hit already knows how to hit. The hitting coach with the big club isn't goin to do much but help marginal hitters get better. Corey Patterson got appreciably better once he showed up but obviously the hitters in general did not under Crowley's tutelage. I guess we'll see.

I love the fact that the Orioles are getting infused with new blood. God knows the old guard wasn't doing much to promote success in the organization.

Some Preseason Predictions Revisited

Ah, December 2006. A more innocent time when I actually had hope of improvement for the 2007 version of the Baltimore Orioles. As I was just starting to blog about the O's, I started laying out some preseason predictions for various players which I now thought would be amusing to revisit.

December 27th, 2006:

Regarding a proposed Brian Roberts/Hayden Penn for Adam LaRoche/Marcus Giles trade:

"I like Brian Roberts a lot but in all honesty, Marcus Giles probably would have replaced his offensive numbers and defense and they are both the same age."

Oh, that's rich.

Roberts: .809 OPS
M. Giles: .621 OPS

A stinker of a prediction. That doesn't even take into account the 50 to 10 edge in stolen bases (with Roberts stealing at an 87% success rate...). Scuttling that deal may be the best thing Peter Angelos has ever done for this club.

Regarding Kevin Millar:

"I don't like him as a primary option at first base but for $2.75 million for one year, he will give you better production for less money than some of the free agents listed below."

One of the fee agents listed below was Aubrey Huff:

Millar: .785 OPS
Huff: .779 OPS

You wouldn't want to live on the difference but Millar did outperform the highly paid free agent at about 1/3 the salary. I'll stand by that statement. However...

Regarding Carlos Pena coming to the Orioles:

"Another one I don't get unless you can get him signed to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Maybe Terry Crowley can work some magic and turn him into a poor man's Richie Sexson but that's a real long shot at this point in his career."

I was clearly wrong about not wanting to give this guy a shot. The Devil Rays were able to turn him into a poor man's Richie Sexson. In fact, Richie Sexson's never had a season as good as Pena posted this year. In fact, if Pena had played for a winning team, he probably would get some serious MVP consideration. Baltimore could've had him...

December 29th, 2006

Re: David Newhan being let go.

"I liked Newhan as a utility man but even Jay Payton will be quite an upgrade in left."

Newhan: .573 OPS
Payton: .668 OPS

That's for 2007 and, yeah, Payton was an upgrade from what Newhan did for the Mets this year. But do you know what Newhan posted in 2006 for the O's? A .668 OPS. Andd to that the fact that Payton was more expensive and can't play the infield...maybe he would've been a better option for the Orioles.

Decemnber 30th, 2006

RE: Corey Patterson

"...he should be able to maintain his batting average in the .265-.275 range...I expect Patterson to at least approach his offensive numbers and continue to play a fantastic centerfield."

Patterson hit .269 for the year so I had that one right. However, even with his late season surge his offensive numbers were significantly down (OPS declined form .757 to .690) and his defense seems to have slipped a bit too. His Fielding Percentage was a bit higher but he didn't get to as many balls this year.

I hope the O's don't overpay for Patterson. He is a really interesting player to watch but he's really inconsistent and he'll never get much better than he is right now which means he will be an average centerfielder at best.

Picking Up The Pieces

It's been real busy at work these last two weeks and quite frankly, I wasn't seeing much worth writing about on the field so apologies for the lack of posts this month. With only four games to go, it's time to start sifting through the wreckage so I'll start with some stats.

I stated at the beginning of the month that some Oriole hitter would have to go on a tear to reach 20 homers this year and wouldn't you know that Nick Markakis did it. He hit 6 in August and has continued that pace with 6 more in September. He now sits at 22 homeruns, not to shabby for a 23 year old rightfielder.

Nick also has accumulated 110 RBI so far. Quick, name last Oriole who drove in 110 RBI in a season by the age of 23? Give up? Well, there was no last one. No Oriole had done that before Markakis (Cal drove in 102 during his age 22 season). So hats of to Nick for a record-breaking season.

+++++

Does anybody realize how long it's been since we had a good regular leftfielder? The last guy who manned that position well was B.J. Surhoff! More on leftfield later...

+++++

Brian Roberts is quickly setting the standard for Oriole secondbasemen for years to come. If he can manage two more doubles this year he will own the top three spots for 2B by a secondbagger in Oriole history. If he can steal two more bases, he will join Roberto Alomar as the only two secondbasemen in history to hit 40+ doubles and steal 50+ bases. Enjoy him folks, he's a special player.

+++++

Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2004 and 2005: 101 and 106 respectively
Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2006 and 2007: 84 and 88 respectively

I know he hasn't had much to work with but the Oriole staff has actually gotten statistically worse since Leo Mazzone's arrival.

+++++

Forget the wins. There are only three Oriole pitchers who have come on the scene in their rookie year with such positive results: Mike Boddicker, Mike Mussina and *mumble*rodrigo lopez*mumble*. Well, two outta three ain't bad...

Catch Up

Wow, so much for my sunny optimism...

A couple of weeks ago I was confident that the O's could finish somewhat strong (maybe just a hair below .500 for the month of September) but now, let the stinkfest continue! The Orioles were somewhat respectable until the Warehouse officially hired Dave Trembley and since they have gone in the toilet. 30-3. No-hit by a rookie. Routinely bludgeoned by the Devil Rays. Add it all up and it's looking like a dismal end to the season.

Bright side: The Baltimore Orioles are now sporting the third worst record in baseball. We may as well go for it and lose out to garner the number 1 pick in the 2008 amateur draft.

The two reasons to watch the O's this season, Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts, are no longer worth watching. Bedard is now injured and his season is over. (He holds the Oriole record for K's in a season but I was looking forward to seeing him break the record for the franchise. It was easily within his reach.) Roberts is still playing but has been mired in a terrible slump and is now hitting less than .300.

Add to this Jeremy Guthrie's strained oblique and the starting pitching looks scarier and scarier. A weird hodge-podge of rookies and scrapheap guys. Victor Zambrano?

The curse of Wild Bill Hagy?

In the midst of all this, Jay Gibbons is linked to the HGH investigation. Has there been a team with more players linked to steroids with less success to show for it? The Baltimore Orioles are the poster child for not using steroids!

Bright sides: (There are very few.) Looks like Millar will be back next season, a good veteran presence and until we get better talent, one of the more useful members of our lineup. Nick Markakis is putting up great numbers. A bunch of kids are going to get some valuable playing time over the next three weeks. And as the season wraps up, I'll have some really gnarly numbers to look at as we sift through the wreckage. Ugh.

Il Buono, Il Brutto, Il Cattivo

Anybody get the reference?

So lets look at the good, the bad and the ugly from this past week.

30-3. Odd how most diehard Orioles fans laughed this off but many dopes in the national sports media actually read something into this. As if 30-3 is really indicative of what this team is about. (The Orioles are not a great team but we surely aren't Devil Rays bad...). Which is worse? 30-3 or 12-0 and 16-0 over two games (I'm looking at you guys in pinstripes...) It was a perfect storm and now it's over.

0-7 against the Twins? Sure, when Johann Santana's on the mound they're one of the best teams in baseball but without him are they really that much better? 0-7. And 2-4 against the Rangers. 30-3 doesn't bother me nearly as much as dropping that series.

The Baltimore Orioles' record now stands at 58-71 meaning they have to go 24-11 to close the season to hit .500. Guess what true believers? That ain't happenin'. So play the kids with abandon and keep the bullpen audition rolling.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
- Arab Proverb

Using this axiom, it is difficult for me to hate the Red Sox that much. I would rather anyone win the division than the Yankees and it's nice to see them finally falling off the pace and AL East title has officially slipped away from them. Now if Seattle (Or Detroit) can snatch the wild card away too...

Erik Bedard did not have a great outing but did finally take over the top spot for most strikeouts in Baltimore Oriole history on Sunday. He is now third in franchise history:

               Ks     Year
Rube Wadell   232     1908
Bobo Newsom   226     1938
Erik Bedard   221     2007
Mike Mussina  218     1997

With an average outing, Bedard should pass Bobo Newsom on Friday.

Congratulations to Kevin Millar for setting the club record for consecutive games reaching base that ended on Sunday. 52 games is pretty impressive, I don't care how you do it. His combination of patience and modest power has made him at least the third best Oriole at the plate this season.

The good news? Tampa Bay is up next.

There's a lot of talk about the Orioles' annual September swoon. This team is not going to go 4-32 to close the season. No way. But I don't think there's a lot of wins to be had when Garrett Olson and/or various AAA pitchers are getting a crack at teams. That's just the way it is.

An interesting article over at The HardballTimes about great platoons of the 60's and 70's. No surprise that Hank Bauer and Earl Weaver are featured as putting together some very effective platoons overt the years.

Barring a September tear by somebody, no Oriole will hit 20 homers this year, the first time that will have happened since 2001. What is so shocking to me is that when I looked up and down the lineup in Spring Training, there was no pure 30+ HR slugger but a bunch of guys who could have reasonably hit 20:

Miguel Tejada
Melvin Mora
Nick Markakis
Aubrey Huff
Ramon Hernandez
(a healthy) Jay Gibbons
Brian Roberts

Hell, you even figured Millar and Patterson to be good bets to hit at least 15 if they got enough at bats. Guess you never know...

Nestor Takes Aim At Our Ace

Nestor Aparicio has a blog. Perhaps you've seen it.



From Nestor Aparicio's blog entry 8/18:



Your Orioles Cy Young candidate at work ...



Erik Bedard has made few friends within the local media, which has now led to a new "national" perspective on his churlish behavior en route to a possible Cy Young Award this fall.



You know that little saying about not learning history and being doomed to repeat it? May I invoke the name of Eddie Murray here? Nestor is not alone in criticizing Bedard's lack of grace with the media but I think everyone needs to remember one name: Eddie Murray.



Yes, it's a joy watching him pitch, but



Allow me to use the wayback machine here. "Yes it's a joy watching Eddie switch hit with power not witnessed since the days of Mickey Mantle but..."



apparently he has become a real pain in the ass to deal with for everyone.



"...apparently Eddie is a real pain in the ass so lets ship him to L.A. for Juan Bell, Brian Holton and Ken Howell." My God, people! Am I the only one who sees the parallels here? (Now Nestor has me raving like a lunatic...)



In this story on ESPN.com, the cat is out of the bag on his asinine behavior toward the media, fans and the like.



First, the story primarily focuses on Erik Bedard's breakout season. Second, there is not one mention of him being rude to the fans. Not one. In my lone interaction with Bedard, he was nothing if not polite even if he wasn't particularly chatty. So rudeness to the media automatically means he is antagonistic to the Baltimore Oriole fans? According to Nestor, yes.



But of course, when your owner is an ass, insulting the fans again and again and encourages his employees to do the same...I suppose your star Cy Young candidate can treat people like garbage as well.



Not people Nestor, just the media! I keed, I keed...



Bedard is a Cy Young candidate, but I don't see the stands filling up on nights when he pitches.



To their detriment. Fans don't know what they're missing. The team is losing so I blame no one for staying away but it's one of the finest performances by an Oriole pitcher in the history of the franchise. No, really.



Funny, too, is that when I PREVIOUSLY had a press pass --



Hoo boy, here we go again. He's kind of like a crazy but harmless uncle...



-- one of the 18 years when I had a pass before Peter Angelos went Fidel Castro on me -- Bedard was always pretty cool to me. Seemed like a quiet guy, but he was certainly NOT impolite in any way. I always got along fine with him.



So...you never had an issue with him when you were part of the media but because you hear he's difficult you write this little hatchet piece about how rude he is?



Gee, I can't imagine why Bedard would be distrustful of the media. They're so evenhanded and logical...



Guess I'm not missing much there these days ...Just what I need -- one MORE person in the organization treating me like crap and making up lies about me!



OK, Crazy Uncle Nestor needs to take his medicine now kids. Good night!



Nestor just implied that a man who has been criticized for not being talkative would make up lies about him. Why? To amuse himself? It wouldn't be to spread to the media now would it? This is forgetting the fact that Bedard would have no motive to make up lies about Nestor Aparicio. Oh wait, I missed this quote in the ESPN article: "Nestor Aparicio likes to dress up goats in women's clothing," remarked Bedard, "Why would I want to grant him an interview?"



Lies! Damn lies!



(In case there are some of you who don't get jokes, Bedard did not say anything of the sort...see the irony?)



Think about this kids. Nestor now is so paranoid (with delusions of grandeur) that he believes the ace pitcher of the Baltimore Orioles is out to get him. Really, take a few minutes and ponder what that means...



The biggest joke is on the Orioles, themselves. They think winning is ALL that matters. And here they have the best pitcher in baseball and NO ONE in town really cares enough to spend a few bucks and come downtown to watch him work.



Let's walk through this.



They think winning is ALL that matters.



They're right. They haven't done that in 9 years so they are really bad at it but WINNING IS ALL THAT MATTERS! You couldn't even get Free The Birds 2 off the ground when the O's had a winning month! If this team started to compete, all would be forgiven by the casual (and 99% of the hardcore) fans.



And here they have the best pitcher in baseball and NO ONE in town really cares enough to spend a few bucks and come downtown to watch him work.



Because...(bangs head on desk)...this is a losing team! They've lost for going on ten years now. You have stated this yourself ad nauseum. If this team was winning Bedard's season would be of more interest. Because they lose, it isn't. Thank you and good night!



And everybody leave Erik Bedard alone. I'll take a surly Cy Young candidate over a cheerful 4-15 hurler anyday.